Morning Coffee and Ag Markets
This podcast delivers weekly insights for the agriculture industry, covering everything from farm-level risk management to market volatility and production challenges. Beyond the farm, we discuss key supply chain issues, like Federal Reserve policies, port strikes, and Mississippi River disruptions, affecting everyone from producers to those all along the supply chain. Join us every Monday morning for engaging conversations with agricultural economists and industry experts about the agricultural economy at both the micro and macro level. Each episode also features a market report, offering current and historical futures price trends.
Episodes
75 episodes
Episode 73 - December 2025 WASDE Lowers Rice Price by 9% and the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program is Announced
Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles discuss the December 2025 WASDE report, noting the most significant price reductions in rice and cotton markets. Long-grain rice prices declined 9%, while cotton fell to around $0.60 per pound, driven by sluggish e...
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Season 1
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Episode 73
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30:57
Episode 72 - Senator John Boozman
In this episode, we sit down with U.S. Senator John Boozman to discuss the major federal policy issues shaping American agriculture. We cover how Congress has approached farm policy this year, including reconciliation packages, appropriations w...
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24:14
Episode 71 - November 2025 WASDE report is relatively quiet despite surprises in production and exports
Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles walk through the November 2025 WASDE, where small adjustments still led to very different price signals across major crops. Soybean and corn price projections inched higher, supported by tighter soybean ending stoc...
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Season 1
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Episode 71
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24:43
Episode 70 - The 2025 Arkansas State Net Farm Income Projection is Adjusted $850 Million Downward in its Fall Revision
Arkansas’s 2025 net farm income was revised down by $850 million, and in this episode Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy break down what’s driving the shift. Wet spring conditions cut rice and soybean acres, delayed and smaller disaster payments pulled ...
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Season 1
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Episode 70
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19:30
Episode 69 - Developing a Market Plan in the Post-Harvest Window
With harvest wrapping up across much of the Midsouth, today’s episode looks at how pre-harvest marketing strategies can guide decision-making after the crop is in the bin. Ryan Loy is joined by Andrew McKenzie and Scott Stiles to discuss how to...
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Season 1
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Episode 69
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24:34
Episode 68 - Prevented Planting: When (if ever) is it a good business decision to take the PP indemnity?
Join us for an in-depth discussion between Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy on prevented planting (PP) decisions in Arkansas rice production. Using simulated 2025 yield and price outcomes, they evaluate when PP could be financially preferable to plant...
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Season 1
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Episode 68
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23:18
Episode 67 - The State of the Arkansas Crop Economy in 2025
For the third consecutive year, Arkansas crop producers are facing a hard reality — total cash expenses exceed total cash income. In this episode of Morning Coffee & Ag Markets, Hunter Biram, Ryan Loy, Scott Stiles, and Grant Beckw...
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Season 1
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Episode 67
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19:42
Episode 66 - Optimizing PRF Insurance for Southern Forage Producers: Lessons from Arkansas
Interval timing matters more than you think when it comes to Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) insurance. Hunter Biram and guest Walker Davis unpack new University of Arkansas research comparing dry, median, and wet counties to reveal how ra...
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Season 1
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Episode 66
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20:56
Episode 65 - 2025/26 Rice Market Outlook
Historic April floods in the Mid-South forced widespread replanting, setting the stage for a volatile 2025 rice marketing year. Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Alvaro Durand-Morat to unpack global market forces reshaping U.S. rice compe...
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Season 1
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Episode 65
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19:52
Episode 64 - Estimating County-Level Farm Program Payments in The One Big Beautiful Bill Act
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 brings sweeping changes to the farm safety net. Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram break down what motivated Congress to expand Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agricultural Risk Coverage–County (ARC-CO) programs, how...
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Season 1
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Episode 64
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18:51
Episode 63 - Short-Term Interest Rates and Identifying Financial Stress
The Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since 2024, easing short-term lending costs but offering little immediate relief for producers in a tough ag economy. Ryan Loy is joined by Erica Barnes Fields as they connect these market shifts t...
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Season 1
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Episode 63
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16:27
Episode 62 - USDA September 12th Reports Highlight Record Corn Production and Downward Revision in Rice Price
Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram recap USDA’s Sept. 12 reports on this week's episode of Morning Coffee & Ag Markets. USDA found more corn acres while trimming yield, and futures firmed after early field reports of disease in the western Corn ...
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Season 1
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Episode 62
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22:45
Episode 61 - Margin Protection (MP) and Margin Coverage Option (MCO) Sales Closing Date for Corn and Soybeans is September 30, 2025
Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram sit down to talk margin insurance. They break down Margin Protection and the Margin Coverage Option, how each fits with other crop insurance plans, and the signup windows. Hunter also walks through the Margin Protectio...
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Season 1
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Episode 61
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23:03
Episode 60 - Prevented Planting: Historical Impacts to Indemnities and Acreage
Hunter and Ryan are back with part two of our Prevented Planting (PP) series. They look at 30 years of Arkansas trends—how PP losses surged after 2011 and have topped production losses since 2019 (often outpacing premiums), in addition to which...
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Season 1
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Episode 60
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22:26
Episode 59 - The Mississippi River is Set to Fall to Severe Levels for the Fourth Year in a Row
For the fourth year in a row, Mississippi River levels are dropping to severe lows during harvest. Join Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy as they discuss how these conditions are impacting barge freight rates, soybean basis, and local cash bids. They b...
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Season 1
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Episode 59
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21:22
Episode 58 - Tracking Chapter 12 Bankruptcies in the South: 2015 – 2025 Trends
Hunter Biram is joined by Ryan Loy to explore Chapter 12 bankruptcy trends across the U.S. and in Arkansas. They discuss what rising filings reveal about farm financial stress, how margins are tightening due to rising costs, and why this matter...
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Season 1
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Episode 58
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25:13
Episode 57 - USDA’s August Crop Forecasts Point to Record Corn and Soybean Yields
Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles break down USDA’s Aug. 12 forecasts. Corn is on track for record yields and production, rebuilding U.S. supplies. Soybeans pair record yield potential with fewer harvested acres, keeping new-crop supplies relativel...
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Season 1
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Episode 57
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26:40
Episode 56 - July 2025 Short-term Interest Rate Update
Dr. Ryan Loy unpacks the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady for the fifth straight meeting and what it means for farm borrowing costs. We also break down rising inflation pressures, the looming August 7 tariff deadline, and how trade ...
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Season 1
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Episode 56
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20:00
Episode 55 - Do Daily Large Export Sales Reports Move Markets?
In this episode, Eunchun Park and Ryan Loy explore whether USDA’s Daily Large Export Sales Reports (DLESR) influence commodity futures markets. Unlike regularly scheduled USDA reports like WASDE, DLESRs are unscheduled and announce sig...
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Season 1
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Episode 55
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25:52
Episode 54 - Prevented Planting: Coverage Levels, Payments, and Rules
In this episode, Dr. Hunter Biram and Dr. Ryan Loy explore Prevented Planting coverage—the indemnity within Yield and Revenue Protection policies that compensate producers when extreme events, like April’s floods, prevent planting. They e...
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Season 1
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Episode 54
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24:24
Episode 53 - July WASDE: Heavy Stocks Keep Pressure on 2025 Price Outlook
In this episode, Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram unpack USDA’s July WASDE, which largely met expectations as favorable weather and robust yields continue to underpin ample supplies. Soybean acreage cuts trimmed production slightly, but stronger c...
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Season 1
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Episode 53
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21:13
Episode 52 - Stronger farm safety net included in the OBBB Act, “Skinny” Farm Bill, and SDRP disaster payments
In this episode, Hunter Biram and Will Maples break down recent federal policy updates affecting U.S. agriculture. The newly passed “One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) strengthens the farm safety net with major changes to PLC, ARC, and crop ...
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Season 1
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Episode 52
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24:36
Episode 51 - USDA's June 30 Acreage Report a Non-Event for Corn and Soybeans
In this episode, Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles recap one of the quietest June 30 USDA reports in recent memory. With little market reaction, they dig into what the numbers mean for corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice heading into the July WASDE. C...
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Season 1
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Episode 51
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20:47
Episode 50 - Chapter 12 Bankruptcies in Arkansas and the U.S.: Trends and Implications for the Farm Economy
In this episode, Ryan Loy and Scott Stiles break down the rise in Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies and why Arkansas now accounts for over a quarter of filings in the 8th Circuit. They explore what this trend reveals about farm financial stress, how...
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Season 1
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Episode 50
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22:53
Episode 49 - Farm Commodity Prices Unlikely to Recover to Breakeven Point for Arkansas Farms in 2025
Prices are down, breakevens are up — and Arkansas producers are stuck in the middle. In this episode, Dr. Hunter Biram and Dr. Ryan Loy walk through the latest crop market trends and how the updated Arkansas Profit/Loss Tool can help producers ...
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Season 1
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Episode 49
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28:06