The Business Case: Interview with Allan Lockhart, CEO of NewRiver

Join hosts Mark Wharrier and Phil Clark for an in-depth conversation with Allan Lockhart, Chief Executive of NewRiver.

In this episode, Allan discusses the evolution of UK retail real estate, how shopping centres and retail parks have adapted to the rise of online shopping, and why he believes the sector is now in its strongest position in over a decade. The conversation also explores NewRiver’s growth journey, investment strategy, use of consumer data, and the future of UK retail property.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:15

Welcome to the Business Case, in partnership with the leading investor presentation hub Engage Investor. This is the podcast where we dive deep into the stories behind the UK's leading companies. I'm Mark Warrior.

SPEAKER_02 0:28

And I'm Phil Clark. And in each episode, we'll be sitting down with top business leaders to uncover their career journeys, the challenges they faced, and the insights that have shaped their success.

SPEAKER_00 0:42

We've spent our careers analyzing and investing in UK companies, meeting management to understand the business case. And now we want to share those insights with you. We will hear about the companies our guests lead and how they are positioned for the future.

SPEAKER_02 0:58

But we also want to find out what makes these business leaders tick, the highs and the lows that they've experienced, and the lessons of management that might apply to your life.

SPEAKER_00 1:10

Please remember this podcast is not investment advice, and it's for informational and educational purposes only. Well, today we're delighted to be joined by Alan Lockhart, the chief executive of New River, a real estate investment trust focused on shopping centres and retail parks, managing assets of about 16 million square feet. Alan co-founded the business, which had an IPO on the London market in 2009 and was promoted from property director to CEO in 2018. Alan, welcome to the business case.

SPEAKER_01 1:48

Well, thank you very much, Martin.

SPEAKER_00 1:49

Good to see you and Phil. Great. Well, listen, there's a lot to discuss, but perhaps just to get our listeners up to speed, could you give us a quick snapshot of New River?

SPEAKER_01 1:57

Sure. Well, New River is a UK-focused retail real estate REIT. We specialize in shopping centres and retail parks that effectively are serving everyday needs for consumers. In total, we have uh assets under management around $2.5 billion in terms of what we own on our own balance sheet and what we manage on behalf of investment partners. And uh we are invested and own in most regions in the UK, uh we approximately have around three and a half thousand uh tenants. So the sort of insights and the access that we have to data is very important to us and it's quite interesting that you know we see in the market. Um I would say what really differentiates us is that we're not sort of passive rent collectors, you know, we are very much an operational asset manager, uh, you know, focusing on making places work for uh local communities. And uh so we think we have the ability to make a material uh difference and positive contribution uh in the communities that we're invested in, at the same time, you know, delivering attractive returns for our shareholders.

SPEAKER_00 3:06

Okay, well, um before we dig into the business, let's just sort of spend a moment and go back a little bit because you founded the business uh with your father, David. Were you always uh immersed in the sector in your earlier years? And I suppose what was the attraction of real estate uh as an industry to you?

SPEAKER_01 3:22

Um I think the attraction around real estate for me is is that it's um you know it's where people come together, where people meet. Uh it's about places, it's very tangible, you can see it, and I find that really interesting. And so the ability to be able to influence um a place and and the benefits that you can deliver uh into a local community and support thriving communities, I for me is really interesting. At the same time, you know, you can um it's a sector which can deliver you know very attractive, you know, returns if you get it right. So I've I've uh I started my career, you know, I think back in the late 1980s, um, working at a firm called Stratton Parker and I was straight into retail real estate. So I have been immersed in it for a very long time, and I've seen you know a lot of change in the market over those uh years.

SPEAKER_00 4:18

Yeah. I suppose it it attracts lots of different personalities, real estate, and there are lots of different ways to make money, some people more focused on doing deals, others um you know predicting future growth. Yeah. You know, how how would you say, you know, how would you describe your philosophy towards making money out of real estate and how has that evolved over time?

SPEAKER_01 4:35

Well, I think the first thing is to be buying assets at the right price. And in order to do that, you really need to understand um what is the underlying risk profile in an asset, because I think once you understand the risk profile, you can price it appropriately. So buying buying at the right price is this is step one and is is very important. Uh, for us, what we're interested in is investing into assets where you have uh a sustainable income stream that is capable of growing over time. Um and you know, that's what we're very much focused on today to make sure that our portfolio is delivering uh sustainable um income returns, but have the capability of growing. Because with rental growth, you know, valuation should grow. And once your values start to increase, your you know, things like your LTV comes down, you can start to access your liquidity and to deploy that into more opportunities. So it's almost like a uh a flywheel of a value creation loop, um, and that's what we're we're we're really focused on and try to achieve.

SPEAKER_00 5:44

Now I remember when the company was uh IPO'd, yeah, and the original logic was to buy uh retail assets distressed prices post uh the great financial crisis and then manage them actively. But you know, clearly it's been a rocky road. Looking back, how would you characterize the first 15 years of the company?

SPEAKER_01 6:05

Well, uh I mean the the the we got off to a pretty rocky start. I mean, uh our IPO wasn't the most successful of IPOs. Um I think we raised 25 million. Uh we were supposed to have raised 250 million. Um, and it was a tough time because you know the financial um uh crisis was still um you know playing out. But at the time, our our the the sort of investment case was here's a management team with a very strong track record in the public equity markets because our previous company, which was called Hallidale, which we floated in 2001, was sold in the first quarter of 2007. And for investors that were with us on that journey, we delivered a 31% per annum compound return. So we had the track record, and uh the idea was to raise capital, to uh invest into the market. Uh it would be a great time to be investing because of the sort of distressed uh you know pricing. And but the real opportunity at that time, uh, in hindsight for uh real estate and and for investors was actually to be investing in the quoted companies, well, the companies that were already quoted, because many of them had to undertake uh highly dilutive uh rights issues to shore up the balance sheet, and that was where the real opportunity was. Um, and that's I think principally uh why our IPO wasn't successful in in the amount that it was supposed to raise. But um uh nevertheless we got the show on the road and and raised 25 uh million pounds uh from uh shareholders. And the first two years I think was just really challenging, you know, trying to grow and um um and uh be able to access capital to sort of fund that growth. And then a couple of things really changed around 2012. One, the market uh uh sentiment had improved, and and secondly, we just announced a joint venture with um Bravo, which was the private equity arm of uh PIMCO. And I think a lot of uh investors in in the public equity markets just wondered why the world's largest bond investor was uh was doing a joint venture with New River and also becoming a shareholder. Um I think that that gives a lot more profile. And then really from about 2012 to 2017, we were able to support the growth of the company, funding it through uh the public equity markets and uh uh and build up our portfolio. So we had that really good extended growth period. Um and then from about I would say really uh uh from about 2018 onwards, we were starting to face into some real challenges. Um first of all, um we have the challenge around Neil Woodford being our largest shareholder, earned about 28-29 percent. The liquidity issue, yeah. Also, there's just the underlying um operational side of the of the business was facing some pressure, and this has really been the the sort of build-up of online retailing and how technology has you know had disrupted our marketplace, and we started to see that play out really from about 2012 onwards, and then we were into the pandemic. Um so we had some really, really tough times, and um it was really about making sure that we could navigate our way through those periods um and particularly around the pandemic, and then come out of that uh stronger, which we did. Um you stress tested. Yeah, we're battle-hardened, we've been in the trenches, um, and or the other way I sometimes describe it is we had a period of time where it was a bit like going out to bat, and you're facing that quarter of very fast uh winter West Indian bowlers from the 1970s, and you don't have a helmet on, and and the wicket is is tricky, um, and you're literally on the back foot all the time. Um, but today, you know, the sun is shining, the wickets dried out, uh, there's been a change of bowling. Uh we've got our pads, we've got a helmet on, and we can get on the front foot and start to build in innings again. And that's what we've been doing over the last um uh 18 months. Um, we've made some significant um moves in terms of transactions.

SPEAKER_02 10:15

Well, I'll uh I'll be first change on the bowling and uh change the direction of the question. So I'd love to get into the two core parts of the asset base, really. And uh as a as a former uh retail analyst, um I've spent a lot of time over many, many years walking stores, thinking thinking about retail dynamics. And um, I guess it's quite interesting as you were describing there to mark kind of sort of the evolution of the business, you know, that there's been some significant structural changes in in the retail market in the broader sense, which has obviously directly impacted physical retail with the whole omnichannel dynamics, supply-demand. We've always had a lot of debate in the UK market about whether we've overrented, sorry, got too much retail space, yeah, not enough retail space. You I think your most recent results, you've sort of talked about things normalizing. So maybe start off at 10. How do you think about the shopping centre today as an asset? Like what's the business case, the attractiveness, maybe from a consumer point of view, but also from a from your business perspective?

SPEAKER_01 11:20

Sure. I mean, look, I I mean we would say our marketplace is probably in its best position for over a decade. Yeah. And obviously it starts with the consumer. And um, you know, we think consumers have proved to be more resilient uh than perhaps financial markets had anticipated. You know, unemployment levels are relatively pretty benign, uh benign, uh wages have been tracked a little bit higher than inflation. Yeah, uh consumers are sitting on a lot of excess savings, and broadly house prices have been stable, and all that's feeding into confidence around how consumers feel about their own personal financial position. And when it comes to spending, you know, consumers make decisions around how they feel about themselves and their own position, not what the Bank of England or the OBR tells them, whose forecasts are usually wrong in any event. So that's fed into the occupational markets, and we can see that the the the decent levels of consumer spending. We think the occupational market's in a much stronger position, and and that's reflective of a number of things. First of all, um, retailers today are apply a laser focus around margin-margin growth, not just volume growth. I think the volume growth story was in the 2000s, but it today is all about profitability. Um, and so a ton of work has been done around um, you know, efficiency through their supply chain, but it's also included a lot of portfolio repositioning, um, closing underperforming stores and relocating into better areas. And we've also seen the rise of the omnichannel retailers getting stronger and stronger. And so all of that's feeding through to increased demand, and we're seeing vacancy rates across the market, you know, trending down over the last sort of couple of years, and whether that's in shopping centres or in retail parks. Is that sorry to interrupt?

SPEAKER_02 13:05

Is that for your portfolio generally, or would you say that's a broader market?

SPEAKER_01 13:08

It's a broader market. I mean, our portfolio is we're we're about 96% occupied. Yeah, we have a very high tenant retention rate. So when it comes to lease expiry or break, over 90% of our tenants will remain in our assets, and that's reflective of the fact that they're trading well and they and the and and they're making profits. Um, and that's why they choose to stay. So I you know, so we think that the market is set um to start to think about delivering sort of consistent rental income growth, I think, which will be super positive. And as a result of uh a broadly resilient consumer, better occupational markets where you know rents have been re-based for um and business rates have come down, um the you know the investor community has uh you know has noticed that and we're starting to see capital flow more into our sector, whether that's shopping centres or retail parks. And you know, the credit markets are also really quite supportive around retail real estate. So all of that is really good for pricing and and and valuations. But today we're still in a market with an oversupply of retail. I mean, we we can't kid ourselves in the UK. And the reason for that, as I'm sure you're probably aware, Phil, is that really from about 2010 onwards, it the it was the convergence of various technologies that came together, uh underpinned by the internet, which we all know has been around a very long time. But it was when broadband speed got faster and faster, it was when uh you had smart mobile phones, everybody's got a smart mobile phone, and that is that just makes online fulfillment uh and transactions so much easier, and then the massive growth of the social media platforms, which are really out and out selling platforms, all of that converged roughly at the same time, and it took a significant amount of consumer spending away from the physical store channel onto the online channel, and as a result, demand for space reduced, but the supply remained fixed. And in any market where you get an imbalance between supply and demand, it usually leads to negative outcomes. But today is a much stronger position for the reasons I sort of uh outlined earlier. So when it comes down to you know, our where our portfolio is positioned, we're invested in retail parks, about 25% of our gross assets in retail parks. That's a sector that is performing incredibly well, very strong demand, the supply side is super tight, and the demand is being driven by grocery, non-food discounters, and omnichannel retailers because it's it's an asset that is so compatible with online fulfillment. So, and omnichannel retailing, yeah. And then for shopping centers, it's where people go and spend their weekly household budgets, yeah. And you know, more than 75% of our customers travel less than five kilometers, so we have very high frequency frequency of visits, and um, you know, we got our portfolio positioned, we think, broadly in the right areas of the market, and it's performing very well from a sort of occupancy, leasing uh and other operating metrics. So we're you know, and so I think the investment case around you know, for us around shopping centres is it's a sector that can uh it's capable of delivering pretty high returns. Uh a significant amount of that return is an income return that we think is becoming more and more sustainable, and uh the potential for that to grow is increasing. And therefore, on a relative basis, we just think the sector looks looks looks really attractive.

SPEAKER_02 16:43

I mean, uh g given if you think if you take the step back and look at it structurally, uh you know, online is 30% of the market, give or take, depend uh category dependent. Yeah, broad rush, yeah. Uh consumer growth has been pretty modest, low very low single digit. So so there's there's there's a big gap between what's left for physical retail and uh what consumer demand is. Uh how how much capacity do you think has come out of a high street retail shopping centre in terms of the supply of um available shops for renting? Like is there been much capacity withdrawal over the last decade?

SPEAKER_01 17:21

Um it there there there is um capacity that is um was being repurposed. It's been repurposed, yeah. So there is opportunities around redeveloping surplus retail for other uses. Um and often residential, you know, is could be a you know a key alternative use given that a lot of retail is located in the middle of a town centre or a city centre where all the public infrastructure is, and that makes a lot of sense around that. And um, and we ourselves are working on with a number of our assets, um, pursuing opportunities to do just that. But we've also seen a lot more leisure and other service and services also um you know um taking up uh space within within our own portfolio.

SPEAKER_02 18:06

Yeah, so could we maybe talk about that in terms of you as an active manager of the asset, in terms of how you think about um retailer mix, um category mix, how you think about FB, how you think about experience in in however you want to define that as sort of how how give us a sense of how active, how dynamic New River are in terms of thinking about that occupancy mix.

SPEAKER_01 18:30

Well, I mean we're we're we're very um active, we're very dynamic. So for us as a as a retail real estate company, you know, we are super focused on customer experience. And the word experience gets talked a lot about in in in in market, but I think a lot of people don't really know what they mean by experience. And for me, the experience is is um the way I would try and convey it is like when I go shopping myself. So when I go to my local Marks and Spencer's, that one trip I probably have six experiences. So it will start the moment I come into the car park. Can I seamlessly get into the car park without queuing? And can I get into a space where opening the door, I'm not going to stress out by bashing it into somebody else's car. So if I can do that, that's a great experience. You walk into the store, it's it's pleasant on the eye, you feel safe and secure. Those are all experiences. You see, walking around the aisles and you see something new, a new product. It might be Carrizo and prawns or something, and you go, that's that's interesting. That's an experience. And then you might see two packets of smoked salmon for £15. It used to be £10, by the way, but inflation is now £15. And, you know, I was brought up in Scotland, so value for money is something that's very dear to my heart. And so I would look at that and go, wow, it's a deal. I love it. But you come out and you've had a whole load of experiences. And so what we're trying to do within our shopping centres and retail parks is think about that customer experience from the point that they get to the asset, uh, the choice that they have, do they feel safe and secure? Uh, have they got the right sort of retail and services? Um, and you know, have they got a place where they can have a cup of coffee or or or grab a sandwich, etc. So that's what we're really focused on. And in many ways, we are we are we're trying to think more like our retailers, you know, like you know, they are dealing with their customers all the time, and that's what they do. And you know, they increasingly are using data to support them in how do they enhance that customer experience. And we're doing the same now. We're we're collecting a lot of really interesting customer spending data that we're we're applying to almost every decision that we make as an owner and manager of a multi-tenanted retail real estate asset, as Mark said in the opening comments.

SPEAKER_02 20:53

You know, you're you're you're managing 16 million square feet of retail space. How much of that do you allocate for stuff to take a risk? So there's a sort of hot new brand that's kind of come out of nowhere through some influencer or it's been on TikTok or something. How how do you think about kind of really sort of fresh, innovative, you know, creative businesses that you're not quite sure if they're going to be here in five years' time, but it could add a bit of pop or excitement to the to the center?

SPEAKER_01 21:21

Yeah, I mean, the the vast majority of our portfolios let into major sort of national retailers, but we do operate at a sort of uh scale where you know we have the ability to trial try and trial things. Um and that's something we're we're always on the hunt to look for interesting ideas, new new concepts that do we think um will enhance um our customers' experience by coming to our assets. So um, you know, it's it's an area that all of our asset management uh colleagues are you know focused on um looking at new ideas that we see. In the wider market.

SPEAKER_02 22:01

Yeah. And then if we maybe just f focus on the retail parks just for a moment or two. I mean, again, in your in your comments earlier, you said it's been a pretty good asset. I mean, and I think that's been a a long-term trend that retail parks have been, you know, where it's been at in terms of they they've got more space. It's maybe, you know, there's car really good car parking, people know what they could they want in and out, they don't have to worry about getting into city centre, etc. Is there a lot more to go for, would you think, as a from an asset class point of view, in terms of the retail parks?

SPEAKER_01 22:31

Well, yeah, I mean, I mean, we think the investment case around retail parks is is very compelling. We think the scale of the opportunity is significant. Yeah, uh, we would like to uh have um more of our portfolio in in invested in in retail parks because we think the sort of risk return profile is very good. You know, we think that we think that um notwithstanding yields have compressed down over the last sort of couple of years, but we think that the retail park sector is is set to deliver very strong, consistent rental growth, and that's just reflective of the supply-demand dynamics, are very, very favorable uh for uh delivery of rental growth. Um, it's a sector also that we is much more uh cost efficient for us because it costs us less to manage a retail park compared to a shopping centre, which is you know generally more complex assets. Uh we think the risk profile on from an income security is lower in re retail parks than than say generally in in shopping centres.

SPEAKER_02 23:33

Just one final question, Ashley Alan, on the uh retail parks. So from a retailer's point of view, I can really see the attractiveness of the space. You've got really good car parking. It's really good for like omni-channel, click and collect. It's a key part of last mile delivery. Yeah. How is the how is the landlord are you able to capture the value that that footprint provides to the retailer in in the rental agreement? Because if it's a turnover rent, that doesn't really count as turnover, but it's actually a valuable the estate. The do you know what I mean? The real estate is valuable to the tenant.

SPEAKER_01 24:08

Yeah, look, I mean I I I think you you will capture it through higher rents because as the demand increases, like as long as the supply is tight, um, then it will will it will come through in rents. Right. No, there's there's no new retail parks being built. You're not going to get planning consent uh easily for those. Okay. And so that supply is always going to be sort of tight. Um, but a lot of the uh like uh retail park uh tenants, um, you know, there are very few sort of turnover leases. Um but now through the data we're collecting in terms of customer spending, we're now able to see uh on a on a tenant-by-tenant basis, we can see the the sort of month on month, quarter on quarter, year-on-year growth or or otherwise in terms of customer spending for for for all of our tenants. So we can see it in terms of in-store customer spending, but we can also now see it in terms of an online spend by a customer that was connected to that store uh connected to a store visit. So we can now start to connect up the dots around what is the true value of that um online um spending by customers that is um really as a result of uh of having that store. So if you take Marx and Spencer's, for example, as a major omni-channel retailer, I think their own research indicates that 40 to 45% of online uh transactions that they do with customers get picked up in store by customers. 80 to 85% returns go back to store by customers, but nearly 50% of those customers coming in to do the pickup or return go on and make an incremental purchase. So it's it's protecting their cost base because the customers are paying for the journey. It's good for margin, but they're getting that top-line revenue boost as well. And that is why omnichannel retailers today are taking market share away from pure play online, who have really struggled in a high inflation environment and where capital costs something. So it's much, much more difficult for them to scale because the days of almost free money is is is gone.

SPEAKER_00 26:16

Can we just you mentioned uh development earlier? We should quickly touch on that because I'm sure we've all sort of passed um shopping centres that have you know fallen into a bit of a spiral and then redevelopment takes place. But is there uh upside within your portfolio in terms of you know either full development or partial regeneration, reconfiguring?

SPEAKER_01 26:38

We have we have a few assets where we're looking to redevelop or regenerate. Um uh it's become more challenging to do that, uh Mark, because the the sort of the viability of being able to uh redevelop is has uh become more difficult because we've seen you know through inflation construction costs rise quite significantly, you know, labor costs, materials, etc. have all risen. Um and of course uh the the rise of you know the increase in the cost of capital, all of that's feeding into making uh uh you know development appraisals more uh challenging to stack up. And of course, the other the other the other issue around development um is just is factoring in time. Yeah. And the planning, you know, getting planning consent for things is taking longer and longer.

SPEAKER_00 27:35

And um well, I suppose there's a wider questionnaire on kind of government policy, and you know, yourself and your clients are kind of the hard end of a lot of uh frustrations, you know, whether it's business rates, taxation, um, employment regulations, you know, the list goes on. You know, the clean sheet of paper, what would you like to see from government that would help both you and your your tenants?

SPEAKER_01 27:58

Well, definitely reform of business rates. Um there has been quite significant progress over the last few years. So the the revaluation now takes place every three years, whereas previously it was five years. Um the ability to uh reset rateable values every three years is is something that's uh welcome. The government introduced a permanent discount for uh retail hospitality and leisure for units uh with a rateable value of lower than 500,000. So that's really positive because it means that uh, you know, if you take New Rivers portfolio, notwithstanding our rateable values went up 7%, but because of that discount that's being applied by the government, the the the rates payable uh bill of our tenants is is going to be 11% lower. And that's straight to the bottom line, it reduces their occupational costs. Um so we're really pleased about that. But we would definitely we still think that um the the the the the the burden on business rates is is too high. Um so I'd like to I'd like to see proper reform. I would I would um I would um uh I think the government needs to well recognize that you know retail within town centres and city centres is uh are in many ways assets of community value. They need protection. Um they need to encourage more investment to come in. And one one one way they could simply uh do that is to reduce stamp duty uh from 5% to let's say 0.5%. Um I think that would immediately um uh result in more investment coming into our sector, and that that would be you know great for town centres and city centres, great for jobs. Um so I'd like to see that happening. You know, you imagine if our if if stamp duty was immediately reformed down to sort of like 0.5%, we would have an immediate portfolio valuation uplift, which would then allow us to access some of our liquidity to invest into our estate.

SPEAKER_00 29:59

Well, there's not much being collected at 5%, right?

SPEAKER_01 30:01

Correct, exactly. And then um I I would just like them to I'd like to to for the government to um speed up the planning process. It's it's it's too long.

SPEAKER_02 30:12

Um yeah, cool. Well, um can I just um bring you back to the conversation from a few minutes ago around technology? Yeah, um and and I I guess two two questions really on technology. What one is as an operator, as an asset owner, what areas of your business have the opportunity of being made more efficient through the use of technology? And then I'd love to pick up on this idea about the data collection that you were just touching on and referencing when we were talking about retail parks earlier, in terms of what are the some of the potential value creation opportunities that you have that you can leverage, leverages that data and those insights.

SPEAKER_01 30:50

Yeah, so I mean we're investing quite heavily within our business and utilizing technology to have much more efficient systems and systems that can handle greater quantities of data that we're now collecting because we're accessing footfall data, car park data, mobility data, and customer spending data. And so we're really trying to design our system that all of the data um flows through um our um sort of property management and accounting uh setup, and then it's presented into our decision makers and uh in uh visually um visual sort of dashboards. Yeah, and um it's really for them to to use the um the data around decision making. Um so that's we're we're a big investment going into that at the moment. Yeah. Um and ultimately around the data, you know, for us it's about using data to make better decisions on a more consistent basis. You know, the more informed you are, the more you're likely to make the right decision going forward. And as I said earlier, you know, the the data we now have access to, we literally use it from pretty much all the decisions that we could we could imagine making as an owner of a shopping centre or a retail park. So for example, you know, we we use it to to decide whether we continue to own an asset or should we think about selling it. We absolutely use it for all our acquisitions as part of that sort of uh diligence process. We you we use it for things like um tenant makes lease negotiations. Um if we decide we want to spend some money upgrading the mouse and make them aesthetically you know better, look better. You know, that that it's very difficult to work out what's the return on our investment because we're not creating space. But if we can see that customer spending has risen because as a result of that improvement in the mouse or the entrances, then we can start to connect up. Well, you know what, if this if they're spending more and our tenants become more profitable, then the prospects of us getting more rental growth in the future increase, so we can then equate that back to that investment. And it's the same with car parking. You put up your prices in car parks, you you you might get a revenue boost, but if it if it if it deters customers spending, um then uh you know it's probably a false economy.

SPEAKER_02 33:21

So um and in terms of using data to create um date uh you know other revenue stream opportunities for you as a business, I was thinking thinking just off the top of my head, you know, could you help a tenant with labour scheduling? Because you could sort of in your data you tell Zu that footfalls patterns are particularly skewed one way or another, and they might want to localize labour scheduling, or you do some co-funded promo activity or activations, or you do localized promotions. I don't know what, I mean, they're sure there's a long list, but is that something that you're exploring?

SPEAKER_01 33:54

Is that an opportunity, or is that just a bit kind of pie in the sky and nice idea, Phil, but not we we have we have explored um you know doing a sort of promotion and pushing it out on through our various sort of social media channels and then looping back with with our occupy as to what results they were sort of seeing? Um, but I think the more the more we can get into things like predictive analytics, um, then we will be able to um uh help uh our tenants um where where it's appropriate to do so. You know, the the sort of data we we're now able to see is like when our customers coming in, where do they typically make their first purchase? Where do they would go for their second and third purchase? So you can start to sort of see combinations of brands that work really well together, which then allows us to sort of talk to those brands uh around opportunities elsewhere in our portfolio. And you know, in many ways, we're just following what the retailers have been doing. Um, you know, Tesco's this year are celebrated or it's last year, celebrated 30 years of of the Tesco Club Caroline. Yeah. And and they've been collecting that data to support their decision making and enhancing customer their customer experience, and that's what we're trying to do.

unknown 35:08

Right.

SPEAKER_00 35:09

Well, listen, we're getting to the the final few questions now, and um, you know, perhaps we should just look forward in terms of the investment case. Um, because you know, to be fair, anybody looking at performance or share price since the company floated, um, you know, it's it's obviously had its uh challenges for good reasons that we've talked about. But you know, could you tell us why the future is going to be different? And I suppose very simplistically, how should an investor think about the return from the company in terms of the initial yield plus some growth plus some management action?

SPEAKER_01 35:41

Yeah, look, I mean, I think um in terms of the the future, um, you know, we're very positive around the future. We think our investment case is really, uh, really compelling uh for a whole variety of reasons. First of all, we just think our marketplace, which is like the key key thing for us, is is in you know in its best position for for more than a decade for the reasons we we discussed um earlier. Uh New River is one of the leading uh retail real estate platforms in the UK market. The scale, the leverage, and the influence that we have around the occupiers and the data today just allows us to make smarter decisions on a more consistent basis than at any time uh previous. And you know, I've I'm always a great believer in learning from your past experiences. Where you've got things wrong, why did you get that wrong? So you're constantly improving your underwriting and risk profile assessment. And I think today our ability to allocate capital um in the right way is the best it's been since we, you know, well, the best it's been since Newburgh has been going for 15 years. So I think that's really important. And then when it comes to you know what our shareholders can expect from us, well, today um you know our dividend yield is around 8.5%. Uh it's fully covered. Um, so it's a very sustainable um dividend yield. And today our shares are trading probably at about a 26-27% discount to net asset value. So we think it offers an incredibly attractive entry point where I am sure that that um discount will narrow um in time. And there's nothing like um, you know, demonstrating your your net asset value through disposals. And this year we're we're on target to dispose of 110 million at a very tight discount to book value. So I think the combination of a super attractive uh income return um with very good prospects of a decent capital return, I think would will lead to you know New River offering, you know, perhaps one of the best total shareholder return prospects of uh you know within the real estate you know sector over the next few years.

SPEAKER_02 38:05

Okay, well maybe I could just touch on a couple of those other points now, Alan, in terms of capital allocation. So uh you know you you run an LTV below 50, I think 45% plus or minus.

SPEAKER_01 38:16

Yeah, I mean I our last reported LTV, I think, was around 42%.

SPEAKER_02 38:21

Yeah, and historically you've done share buybacks. Um maybe not consistently, but that's certainly been part of the portfolio or the um the the the ways you're returning cash to shareholders, and you've and as you just said, you've got a pretty attractive dividend yield. So in terms of capital allocation, how how do you think about that incremental pound of of opportunity? How do you where where does it get how does it get allocated? How do you think about the balance between buying back more shares given you're trading at 26% discount to nav versus organic growth opportunities or further consolidation?

SPEAKER_01 38:56

Well, uh when it comes to capital allocation, for us our our principal job is to be able to allocate our capital into opportunities that will deliver the best return with the lowest risk profile possible. That's that's that's how we look at it. And um we have a number of options. We can invest into our own portfolio, which we which we do as a sort of you know um uh on a on a sort of annual basis. We can invest uh into opportunities that we see in the direct real estate market, we can buy back our own uh bonds or reduce debt, uh, and we can buy buy our shares. And so we have a number of options there. And you know, what we're looking to do is to which option is going to deliver us the best sort of risk-adjusted return. Yeah, and you know, that sometimes could be investing in our portfolio, but it could be new opportunities, but equally it could be a buyback, which we you know, we did a significant one you know last year. And and that's the discipline that we try and uh adhere to. Um you know, going forward, we we think we're a business that is definitely capable of of growth. So we we would like to find a way to make sure that our our capital allocation uh decisions are also consistent with our ability to sort of grow the business into the into the future.

SPEAKER_03 40:12

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 40:12

And just picking you up on the uh other point you made there to market before around um disposing of assets. Yeah. So as you said, you're you're you're on track to sell up roughly 110 million quid's worth of assets. Is that about yield opportunity? Is it about building a war chest in order to then drive further growth?

SPEAKER_01 40:32

Because your gearing isn't that high, so it it it it well it isn't. I mean, our guidance is to be at 40% or below, right? Um, you know, in terms of LTV. I mean, the public equity markets are quite focused around an LTV. Um, if you go in the private markets, they're much more comfortable with higher levels. Yeah, I mean, we also look at our net debt to EBITDA. We've probably got one of the lowest sort of net debt to EBITDA ratios in the market, and our interest cover ratio is one of the highest. So all of these points seem to be pointing in the opposite direction of getting to below 40 on LTV. Uh yeah, but but the public market, the public equity markets um are generally quite focused on that. So you know, we have to take that into you know into account. Um, but yeah, no, I mean I think um uh from our perspective, you know, it's it's important that we, you know, I go and see a lot of our our shareholders, and you know, it you know, our balance sheet strength is important. So we we have to try and maintain that.

SPEAKER_02 41:28

Yeah, okay. I mean, and talking talking about shareholders, just last question for me, really. One of the very consistent threads that we've had through all of our podcast guests is just sort of how they're thinking about the London Stock Exchange. Yeah, pros and cons. You you've been listed for 15 years, you had a vehicle before that was listed, so yeah, you've been a very active user of the equity market. Sort of how how are you seeing London, the London market, and what do you think could be done to maybe improve it? I mean, there's there's still a lot of negativity around London and the London Exchange.

SPEAKER_01 41:59

Well, I think all the data suggests that you know the capital flows are really um come out of the London market. And I, you know, compared to when we were at the IPO, you know, the liquidity was much stronger than it is is today. And and somebody did tell me the other day that maybe 20 years ago, UK pension funds had about 50 to 55 percent of their assets allocated into the UK stock market. Today that's about four percent. Yeah, so I think the government needs to do something to encourage um more capital back into the market. But you know, for us it's like um, you know, having a really good functioning market is important for New River because if you think about it, you know, we're a REIT, you know, in order for us to grow, we do need to have access to capital. And um, you know, because we have to distribute 90% of our earnings, so it's very difficult to grow out of retained earnings. Yeah. Um, now we took it uh we took advantage of the the markets um in September 2024. We were buying capital regional and to partly fund that transaction in terms of the cash component, we did an equity raise, um targeting to raise 50 million. Um and you know, we started uh investor meetings Monday afternoon, finished by Wednesday lunchtime. Uh the book was closed on Wednesday night. We had 103 million pounds of demand for 50 million target, and by Friday the cash was in our bank account. So accelerated book bills work well when they work. Yeah. Yeah. Now, if you go and try and raise, if you go and talk to the private equity guys, you know, who raise funds on a regular basis, you know, it can take a year and a half. Yeah. Um so when the public markets are functioning, it it can be, you know, um, it can be really positive.

SPEAKER_00 43:40

Well, I guess the final question just builds on that in terms of the future and consolidation. Uh I guess there are sort of two areas there, there's more capital and regional type transactions. And then you've got this partnerships business, which is really quite a hidden gem in the group, using the skills and the the cost base that you have managing your estate to manage. Other people's which is quite a high return on equity um s stream of revenue. So how do you think about because you you need to be bigger, right? It's a scale game uh being uh a a rich. So how do you think about those two strands of growth and where could the potential be?

SPEAKER_01 44:13

Yeah, look, we we we strongly believe we're capable of of uh of growth and our job is to hunt down the very good uh the very best transactions we can find and then go and fund those uh within the public equity markets. And I think we'll have the support of the public equity markets as the capital regional transaction demonstrated. So long as we can we can come forward with opportunities where it's going to be acquitted to earnings, um, then I think that's what our shareholders are are wanting, and they want to support our growth. Um, so that is something that we we we you know we will be looking to try and achieve over the coming years um because we do want to be bigger. But but also we can deliver growth through what we call our partnership business. And um, you know, today, you know, our net income, net of costs is on an annualized basis, looking forward is around four million. Now it's been growing around 20% per annum for the last five years. We see no reason why we can't continue to uh maintain that growth rate um over the next sort of uh you know five years, and uh that um will make a really good contribution contribution to our earnings, but we can achieve that in a very capital-like way. But it's also allowing us to get more data, more influence, uh, more insights that we can leverage off in terms of you know into our own portfolio. So, you know, we just sort of see that side of our business being a win-win, and there'll be more opportunities for us to to deliver that.

SPEAKER_00 45:42

Great. That's a great note to finish on, Alan. So from Phil and I, thank you for being on the business case.

SPEAKER_01 45:47

Well, thank you very much for listening. And thanks a lot, Anna Ligue.

SPEAKER_02 45:51

So, Mark, uh, interesting conversation there we had with Alan, uh second uh real estate um CEO guest. What did you think?

SPEAKER_00 46:00

Yeah, I thought it was really interesting. Um, because it clearly, you know, I think as an investor, you know, I kind of when I think of shopping centres, you know, it's right up there with kind of contracting and textiles and telecoms. There's a sector that's just very challenged and one to be avoided. But you know, what really came out in that conversation was how much change and repair and restructuring and capacity coming out has taken place within the the whole kind of shopping center um asset class. And actually, now you're looking at evaluations that have been rebased where the rent is pretty secure going forwards. Yeah. So you just need a very modest level of growth for this to be quite a good total shareholder return going forwards. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 46:43

Yeah, look, I'm uh I'm I'm a former paid-up member of the retail sector analyst community, so it was it was great to talk talk uh all things retail with Alan. Um I think there was some quite interesting dynamics that he he identified. What one was just you know his conviction of the underlying assets being the most attractive they've been for a decade. I mean that that's a that's a strong statement to be making, uh, and obviously there's there's market intelligence and insights that back that up. Um, but I think it was interesting to kind of hear his take on how they're being much more active in a tenant mix. Um, it's a much more dynamic way of thinking about the the space and the sector, probably, than when he started. Uh, the other thing I thought was quite interesting that he talked to was just that kind of first little peeks into the data opportunity. Not sure we fully got out of him exactly how relevant that could be or what it could be. It sounds like it's in very early days of of that opportunity. But if you just think about the number of potential possible data points and and the potential value for that, I think that is quite an interesting theme that will probably kind of develop more over the next few years. The thing that he said that I thought was really reminded me of our conversation with Chris Gelzy at Admiral Taverns was talking about community and the value of retail within the community. And I think I think we heard that loud and clear about community pubs with with with Chris. And um Yeah, I just wonder whether that's the sort of missing piece of the puzzle for for the government, actually. And uh thinking about all of those, he had a long list, a wish list of what he wanted to hear from government. I'm not sure how many of it's coming through anytime soon, but yeah, I thought that was just quite interesting, I thought.

SPEAKER_00 48:27

Yeah, no, it was it was very good. Good. Well, hope you enjoyed that podcast. Uh, lots of interesting guests coming forward. You know, we're always interested in your feedback. Uh, if you have any guest suggestions, you know, drop us a line uh on our LinkedIn uh or social media feeds and look forward to the next time on the business case.