2026 Predictions: Consolidation, Tentpoles, and the Future of Licensing

2026 could be the most transformative year in licensing history. From the potential Netflix-Warner Bros. mega-merger to one of the most stacked theatrical lineups we've seen in years, the licensing landscape is about to change dramatically.

In this episode, David Born breaks down everything you need to watch in 2026: the consolidation dominating headlines, the exodus of licensing talent reshaping the competitive landscape, and the massive theatrical releases that will drive consumer products - from Super Mario Galaxy and Toy Story 5 to Avengers Doomsday and Narnia.

Plus, David explores the trends that will define the year ahead: AI's impact on licensing, the explosion of characters in advertising, retailers desperate for differentiation, and the continued power of nostalgia brands. Whether you're a licensor, licensee, or retailer, this episode gives you the strategic insights you need to navigate 2026 successfully.

Key Topics:

• Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery deal and consolidation ripple effects
• The biggest theatrical releases of 2026 and their licensing implications
• Where displaced licensing talent will land—and how it will reshape the industry
• AI, digital licensing, and emerging trends you can't ignore
• Public domain chaos, dynamic royalty models, and emerging markets
• Major licensing events and why you need to be there

Mentioned in this episode: Super Mario, Pixar's Hoppers, The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Mandalorian & Grogu, Masters of the Universe, Toy Story 5, Supergirl, Moana (live-action), Spider-Man, Narnia, Avengers Doomsday, and more.

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Transcript

What if I told you that 2026 could be the most transformative year in licensing history? Between a potential Netflix Warner Bros. Mega merger, an absolutely stacked theatrical lineup, and thousands of talented licensing professionals being forced to reinvent themselves, this year is going to reshape our entire industry. I'm David Born, and you're listening to Born to License, the only podcast that gives you licensing insights you can't find anywhere else. And today I'm breaking down my predictions for what to watch in 2026. So let's dive in. Let's start with the elephant in the room. Acquisitions. The Netflix Warner Brothers Discovery deal is going to dominate headlines throughout 2026. Or will it be the Paramount Warner Brothers Discovery deal? Whatever it is, we probably won't see it finalized this year. But the ripple effects are already being felt across the licensing world. 

 My early December episode on this became our number one podcast ever because you all understand what's at stake. But here's my question. What's next? If this deal goes through, will it trigger a domino effect? Are we looking at more consolidation? And more importantly, what does this mean for the licensing professionals caught in the middle? This brings me to something I'll be watching very closely all year. The exodus of talent. Hundreds of experienced, brilliant licensing professionals have been laid off with, I'm really sorry to say, more expected this year. Will 2026 be the year where we see the launch of a raft of independent agencies? Will they become consultants? Or will they find new homes at emerging licensors? These are the people that will continue to shape the licensing industry, and where they land could fundamentally change the competitive landscape. 

 Now let's talk about what I believe is going to drive consumer products in 2026. Theatrical releases this year has one of the biggest lineups I've seen in years. Let me just rattle off a few. March brings us Hoppers from Pixar, their 30th animated feature. It's an original story about humans hopping into robotic animals. Pixar needs a win after some recent struggles, and original IP always has licensing potential if it connects. But the real action starts in April with a Super Mario Galaxy Movie On April 3, after the first Super Brothers movie dominated with over $1.3 billion worldwide, Nintendo and Illumination are going cosmic. Super Mario licensing continues its hot streak, and I believe this will be massive for consumer products. And then May kicks off for the Devil wears Prada 2 on May 1. Now, this isn't your typical kids consumer products program. 

 This is adult property licensing. But I expect really interesting partnerships, especially in Fashion. Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway are back, and the nostalgia factor here could drive some sophisticated brand collaborations. And on May 22, the Mandalorian and Grogu hits theaters. Disney and Lucasfilm are going all in on this one. This is Star Wars Return to the big screen. After seven years, expect Star wars products everywhere. Disney knows how to make these moments unavoidable. And licensing teams have been preparing for this for years. And looking at summer 2026, it is absolutely stacked. June 5th brings masters of the Universe. Mattel is betting big on this one. June 5th brings Masters of the Universe. And Mattel is betting big on this one. He is finally back on the big screen. Mattel's licensing machine is ready to roll. 

 Anyone who attended Mattel's recent summits can tell you that this is a major priority for them and this could be their biggest play since Barbie. Two weeks later, June 19th is Toy Story 5. This will be unavoidable. Disney is the best at this and they're going to dominate shells after Toy Story 4 made over a billion dollars. The return of Woody and Buzz facing off against technology threatening traditional toys is going to resonate. This is licensing gold. Then June 26th, we see Supergirl. This is DC's big bet for 2026. James Gunn's new DC universe is building momentum after Superman. And Supergirl represents DC's effort to create a Wonder Woman level female superhero franchise. Will it break through? We'll see. We expect a lot of Supergirl product in the market regardless. 

 That S has so much power and sells well all year round without needing a film release Onto July. And it gets even bigger. On July 10, Disney's live action Moana arrives. The animated films have been hugely popular. Moana 2 just dominated the box office with Dwayne Johnson reprising Maui in live action. This has all the ingredients for another Disney licensing juggernaut. Onto Spider Man. Brand new day. Spider. Spider Man. Consumer products always perform well. Always. This is Tom Holland's fourth solo film and Spider man licensing is a sure thing. This will be no different. After a relatively quiet late summer and fall, the holiday season brings two massive tentpoles. Thanksgiving, November 26th, we have Narnia the Magician's Nephew debuting in IMAX theaters worldwide before hitting Netflix on Christmas Day. This, I think, is going to be huge. 

 Greta Gerwig is directing, Netflix is putting massive resources behind it and this is their first ever wide theatrical release. CS Lewis's Narnia has been dormant for over a decade on the big screen. If Gerwig captures the magic, this could launch a whole new licensing franchise. Netflix is treating this like a theatrical event, not just a streaming movie. And finally, December 18th Avengers Doomsday Marvel product will flood stores at the end of the year. Robert Downey Jr. Returns as Dr. Doom. The Russos are back directing, and this is the first Avengers film since Endgame in 2019. This is Marvel betting everything on recapturing that magic. The licensing implications are enormous. Every retailer will want Avengers product for holidays 2026. The question is, will these theatrical releases continue to be the tentpole moments that drive licensing programs forward, or are we reaching saturation? 

 I personally think they'll perform, but only the strongest will cut through. Now, beyond theatricals, here are the trends I'm tracking. AI is coming for licensing. It's already impacting every industry and we'd be crazy to think licensing is immune. I'll dedicate a full episode to this later, but expect to see AI tools changing how we create, market and even structure deals. Not to mention the Disney deal with OpenAI, which could be a complete game changer. Characters in advertising will explode. We saw phenomenal examples in 2025 and the results speak for themselves. Creative agencies and brands are catching on. I expect that super bowl this year will showcase some more incredible IP driven campaigns. Our Born licensing business signed some of our biggest projects in this space last year and the momentum is only growing. Licensing is going mainstream. You're seeing it on Shark Tank. 

 Entrepreneurs are talking about it. Consumers are paying attention. That's exactly why I launched Learn to License last year. To make licensing accessible to everybody. And I expect more people to discover it throughout 2026. Retailers are desperate for differentiation with Amazon, TikTok shop and Instagram eating into foot traffic. Brick and mortar stores need licensing to create experiences and draw customers in. Expect to see retailers worldwide embrace licensing like never before. Nostalgia and Evergreen brands. Will they keep their moment? Hello Kitty? Care Bears? Strawberry Shortcake. They had massive years last year. I'm curious if this trend continues or if we hit fatigue. I suspect nostalgia is not going anywhere. And here's wildcard. What brand will surprise us? A few years ago, Stitch came out of nowhere and became a phenomenon. What's going to be the stitch of 2026? 

 Of course we've got the major licensing events in the calendar, starting with New York Toy Fair in February. We had Toy and Hobby Fair in Melbourne, Australia this March. I'll be there. Licensing Expo in Vegas in Maine. I'll be there too. BLE in London in October. I will be there as well. These events are where deals get made, relationships get built, and trends get spotted early. If you're serious about licensing, you need to be at these events. I'll be releasing another podcast about events soon to make sure you're all prepared well in advance. So let's talk about the future. Digital licensing is accelerating. My conversation with Simon Kay last year made it clear IP owners know they need to be on Roblox, in gaming and across digital platforms. 2026 will push that even further. Will we see royalty structures change? 

 Sharon Wiseman and I discussed dynamic royalty models last year on our podcast. I don't think 2026 is the year, but it's certainly coming. Licensors and licensees are going to start experimenting with performance based deals soon, without a shadow of a doubt. I just don't think it'll be this year. Public domain characters Betty Boop, Pluto, Nancy Drew. They're all entering public domain this year. How will licensors manage the chaos when anyone thinks they can use characters without a License? As we saw with Mickey Mouse's Steamboat Willie, it's actually very complicated and there is a lot of risk when it comes to using these characters without permission. And thinking of markets, I spend time in Brazil. Licensing is nowhere near as big there as it should be. It's a massive country, huge population. I think Brazil and other emerging markets represent massive growth opportunities in 2026. 

 So here's my take. 2026 is going to be a year of transformation, consolidation and opportunity. Whether you're a licensor navigating acquisitions, a licensee chasing tent poles, or a retailer trying to create in store magic, this year is going to test us all on the Born to License side. We're aiming to hit 100 clients by the end of the year, launching thousands of licensed products and bringing fresh blood into the licensing industry. If you're not doing licensing yet, 2026 is the year to start. I'm wishing you, the Born to License listener, an amazing 2026. I hope it's really successful, super productive, and I hope all of your dreams come true. Thanks for listening to the Ball into License podcast. If you found this valuable, share it with someone in the industry and I'll see you on the next episode.