401k Investing for Newbies and Nerds
There are one hundred and thirty million American workers who collectively own $35 trillion in their 401k and related retirement accounts. The owners of these accounts face both challenges and opportunities. The largest opportunity is that their accounts are investment accounts, not savings accounts, and for the past three decades they have grown in the low double-digit range.
The main challenge 401k owners face is that there are required to make their own investment decisions by choosing from a limited menu of mutual funds.
These 130 million self-directed retirement account owners can be divided into 3 distinct categories. The first are those who could care less about their money and are willing to just let nature take its course. The second group, NEWBIES, are inexperienced in the investment process, but are willing to become engaged in the management of their hard earned dollars. The third group, NERDS, are those who have a modicum of investment expertise and are willing to devote the time and energy to expand their investments skills.
The mission of my podcast is to motivate and educate 401k NEWBIES and NERDS on how to optimize their 401k experience. I have a 62-year relationship with the stock market. I have been a stockbroker, finance professor and individual investor. Ten years ago, I appointed myself to the position of 401k guru extraordinaire. I have no investment products to sell. All I have to offer are the objective observations of one who has been there and done that.
401k Investing for Newbies and Nerds
Season 2 Episode 7 Gen X 10, Wall Street Techies Zip
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When I was a kid, our family car had air conditioning, It was a little triangular shaped window that you flipped around and it blew air on your face. Our family car also had power windows. There was a crank on the door and you were the power. Fact checking involved going to the library and digging through 28 volumes of the Encyclopedia Britanica. But that was then and this is now. My grandkids can’t get out of bed without checking their cell phone. Technology is everywhere and more is on the way in the form of the newfangled AI contraption.
Not to be left in the dust, the marketing mental giants of Wall Street have decided to jump on the AI bandwagon. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal outlined how the legacy Wall Street banks are using AI to create NEW investment strategies for the wealthiest clients? Oh, and by the way, it is Wall Street's favorite new way of making money. The WSJ article quoted the managing director of one of the new hi-tech as saying, “Portfolio managers and financial analysts cost money and get bonuses. Computers don’t.”
Before you run out and bet the farm on the latest and greatest new AI technology, let me point out to you that we've been down this road before, and we learned a long time ago that this dog don't hunt. One issue the WSJ article didn’t address was how well these snake oil computer programs perform. To quote Groucho Marx, they're like an ugly stripper: They want to reveal as little as possible.” Because these new funds are nothing more than renamed hedge funds with bigger computers, we can sneak behind the curtain for a glance at how they may perform. Last year, 20% of all of the nation's hedge funds declared bankruptcy and went out of business.
To prove to you that the more things change, the more things stay the same, let me tell you the story of the 25 million Gen Xers who, on average, have amassed $583,800 in their 401k by doing simply, non-technical things. They bought low cost index funds, ignored the Wall Street mavins jibber jabber and just hung on to them for more than a decade. Index funds are the 401k investment equivalent to the triangular air conditioning window on my family’s 1949 Ford.