Reading Maine's Real Estate Market with Chris Lynch 2nd half — Why Maine Moves Differently

In this second half of my conversation with Chris Lynch, Founder and Designated Broker of Legacy Properties Sotheby’s International Realty
, we go beyond the headlines to discuss the real forces shaping Maine’s high-end real estate market today.

We explore how cash and generational wealth transfers are driving demand, the enduring truth of Chris’s “three-legged stool”—price, condition, and location—and the growing threat of real estate fraud in an increasingly AI-driven world.

Chris shares striking examples of how scammers are infiltrating the industry and explains what steps he and his team are taking to protect clients. Together, we unpack why experience, relationships, and collaboration among brokers remain Maine’s strongest defense—and why, despite market noise, Maine continues to be one of the most stable, desirable, and values-driven markets in the country.

💬 Key Takeaways

• Cash is king—and often gifted. A new wave of first-time buyers is entering Maine’s market with gifted cash from parents, allowing them to compete in multiple-offer situations.
• The three-legged stool still stands. A property’s success ultimately depends on price, condition, and location—if one leg is weak, the value equation changes.
• Fraud is the real threat. AI-powered scams are growing more sophisticated, making vigilance and personal verification more critical than ever.
• Relationships are Maine’s safeguard. In a small, trust-based market, knowing your colleagues, title agents, and clients personally remains the best protection.
• Outlook: steady and strong. Chris predicts Maine’s market will continue to “bump along the top”—moderate appreciation, limited inventory, and a surge of buyers if interest rates drop below 6%.

Episode Links

• Legacy Properties Sotheby’s International Realty –
• Episodes 5 & Episode 6 When Chris Lynch and I discussed the state of the market in the spring of 2025. 

Connect with Elise

🌐 Website & Listings: Legacy Properties Sotheby’s International Realty
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Please remember this podcast is for entertainment and educational purposes only and does not create an attorney client or real estate advisor client relationship. Please reach out to me directly if I can assist you in your real estate journey.

Transcript

Elise Kiely: Welcome to Elegant Maine Living, where we explore the beauty, charm, and sophistication of life in main. My name is Elise Kiely, your host, and a real estate advisor with Legacy Properties Sotheby's International Realty. On each episode, we dive into Maine's residential real estate market, sharing key trends, inventory, insights, and notable sales, while also highlighting the extraordinary lifestyle that makes Maine such a special place to live, work, and play.

Whether you're seeking a coastal retreat, a vibrant community, or an escape into nature, elegant main living is your guide to the home and experiences that defined our great state. Let's get started. Chris. In the first half of our conversation, we talked about how Maine's real estate market always seems to move at its own pace, how trends arrive here last, if at all.

How, despite some of the national headlines, neither of us expects prices to fall. Instead, we see steady, moderate appreciation until interest rates drops below six, which could then bring another wave of buyers into the market. Frankly, Maine's fundamentals remain strong, and in the second half I'd like to dig a little deeper into what's driving Maine's high-end market.

Things like the rise of cash and generational gifting. How your famous three-legged stool of price, condition, and location still holds true. And we'll also talk about why experience and collaboration matter more now than ever. And then frankly, we're going to talk about something that's on everybody's radar and everybody is concerned about, and that's the growing threat of fraud and how we as professionals are protecting our clients.

And Chris, I know you have some interesting and kind of scary stories that you're going to share with us about some examples of fraud that you've seen in the industry. So we've got a lot to unpack. Let's dive in. 

One of the things we see of the high-end buyers coming in, another trend that I am seeing is the gifting of cash from those cash rich buyers demographic group to their adult children so that they can be cash buyers and be competitive.

Because we still have multiple bids on a lot of properties. Sure. Oh yeah. In the greater Portland area and York and I think in up north and down east, I should say. Down east. 

Yeah. 

Chris Lynch: Camden, Rockport. And also Bar Harbor, Northeast Mount Desert. Yep. 

Elise Kiely: Yeah. And so we are still seeing for the, if a property is priced right and it's in good condition and good location, and we are going to talk [00:32:00] about that three-legged stool idea in a minute, but I m still seeing a lot of cash.

That transfer of wealth, if you will, happening before it, it passes through inheritance, but passing through gifting, which has its own tax consequences. But I m seeing a lot of

 first time home buyers coming in mid to late twenties, early thirties, with that asset of cash and being able to be a cash buyer.

It's, I would say 85% of my buyers in that demographic group are cash and they're being gifted. Yeah. Which is really interesting. 

Chris Lynch: It is and so happy for them, to be able to, at such a young age, get to Maine. And enjoy everything that Maine has to offer. It's an outdoor state. It is biking, it's hiking, it's walking, it's skiing, it's mountain climbing, it's surfing and what have you, and snowshoeing and cross country skiing. And all that is having that youth and that energy to be able to find a spot where you can do all those things. Within an hour or two of your health.

There's the, people talk about the sea and ski in the spring, right? Yeah. [00:33:00] When you can ski in the morning at Sugar Loaf and go in the ocean down to Scarborough Beach in the afternoon. 

Elise Kiely: Listen, there are people that are surfing at Higgins Beach and Kennebunk Beach year round. I know. And you could surf and ski in the same day.

Yeah. Which is incredible. 

We, it is a very special, a special spot. And as you said, people are here intentionally. Yeah. You don't come to Maine by accident usually. No. No. And the people that are here. Up being very proud to be from Maine. Sure. It's a badge of honor. 

Chris Lynch: Yeah. My kids are, it was funny, I was talking to my 24-year-old daughter and she's, Maine is so much a part.

She lives and works in Washington DC now, but so much apart, I wouldn't be who I was without Maine. I thought that was really interesting and it wasn't solicited. She just came out with that when she was last visiting. 

Elise Kiely: That's lovely. Yeah. That's a lovely foundation. Yeah, I know. My children feel the same way.

Yeah. I have one in Utah and one in Boston and they both feel a sense of pride and you've mentioned when you go to these amazing educational opportunities, networking events through Sotheby's, how all you have to do is say you're from Maine and people want to come and talk to you. 

Chris Lynch: They do.

They find it very interesting. 

They did. They don't even [00:34:00] remember my name. They don't remember. They just remember he's the guy from Maine. I don't remember his name. Yeah. But I want to go see him. 

Elise Kiely: Chris, let's talk about the three-legged stool. Sure. I talked about a little bit you wrote about this concept a few years ago.

And I think in one of our luxury outlooks. Sure. C can you describe what that is? 

Chris Lynch: It's a pretty straightforward way of looking at real estate and, every home regardless of where it is or what it is, has a value. And what we try to do is we try to generate and create the most value for our selling clients, and we try and help our buyer clients get the most value by finding properties that, that meet their criteria.

The three-legged stool is really just simply looking at, location, condition, and value. And it's a and you said it earlier, a good home in a good location at a good price is going to sell a great home, in a great location at a great price, it's going to sell for more. And an okay home in an okay location and an okay price, still a good [00:35:00] price, fair price is going to sell, but for less. And really the first thing that you know, when you put a property on the market, you look at the market reaction. And if what's supposed to happen doesn't happen, you go back and revisit the three-legged stool.

Is it really a great, is it a, is it as great a home as we thought? Is the location more challenged than we thought and or is the price wrong? And you could have none of the three legs and. Two of the three legs, but if any one leg is missing, it's typically more of a challenge to get the property sold.

It's typically more of a challenge for a buyer looking at it to see the value that We have ascribed to it in the listing price. 

Elise Kiely: It's interesting the, you look at how this business is done from an advisor perspective. During Covid was very different than pre COVID. And the skills that we had to bring, the assets we had to bring were very different and representing buyers was extremely difficult.

And you wanted to make sure you maximize value for your seller. But navigating for buyers was a [00:36:00] really challenge. And one of the things that I think is we have a responsibility to do to our seller clients as we are transitioning out of COVID, and I still think there's, we are still transitioning out is educating sellers of where we are in the market now and having a sometimes difficult conversations upfront when expectations may be different than the market realities.

But that's where training and expertise come in. And this is not an industry for a hobbyist or someone without training to go out and to go out on their own. You really need to have that experience. 

Chris Lynch: You have to pay attention. There's a lot going on. And, we talked a little bit about Legacy Property, Sotheby's International Realty, and I really do think one of the keys to our successes, we share a lot of information, a lot of information about the practices, a lot of information about how to deliver a product.

We, everybody's very well informed. You're so facile with all the numbers and all the data and all the things that are going [00:37:00] on and that's a really important part of delivering the value to a buyer and or a seller. And I think we, that's something that we do particularly well, and the hobbyists may have another job.

We just don't do that as a company, is, we are full-time agents. Take it very seriously. We have a fiduciary responsibility to our clients, again, be it buyer or seller that we take extremely seriously. 

Elise Kiely: And I think one of the biggest assets that we have within our company are our regular office meetings.

That we do virtually. It would, it takes a lot for me to miss the meeting from the Portland office is on Friday mornings. I will arrange flight schedules, other commitments so that I don't miss that because it is so important to hear from colleagues, not only what listings they have coming up, not only what buyers they have coming up, but what are they seeing what unique experience or story? Did they have? Is that a trend? Is that something we need to watch for? And the most valuable part of that very efficient 30, 35 minute meeting is your [00:38:00] take. What are you seeing from a DB level? What are you seeing about deals staying together, maybe deals falling apart? What's the pace of properties going under contract that we are seeing. Where are we vis-a-vis last year? Because we can look at the statistics for the state or even for the county, but those aren't our statistics within the company. 'because we have a very, I think, unique part of the market and we have extremely strong market share.

Chris Lynch: And that's the place where we can take individual data points and find out is there a trend? I had a transaction fall apart in other days. It's funny, I did too. Another agent I did too. So that's unusual to have three or four agents on the same call, have a similar experience, which is pretty unusual to have properties fall apart when theyre contract.

Elise Kiely: One of the things, trends we are seeing, and I think we are not unique to this, is given the role of AI Given bad actors out there and the ease of which they have of getting access to information can, let's talk a little bit about what you're seeing from a fraud perspective. 

Chris Lynch: So fraud, [00:39:00] again, question I probably get asked most often is, Chris, what are you worried about?

You're worried about the market, you're worried about pricing, you're worried about liquidity, you're worried about anything. I m not worried about anything except fraud. Fraud, as it turns out, is probably the most worrisome piece of our business. And it's not just real estate. There's fraud everywhere. And as we all know, we see commercials every day that particularly the baby boomers are the biggest targets. And the sophistication of the fraudsters in the scammers have gotten better and better. We have always been targeted as an industry because we work with big numbers and.

But we were always able to see it. It was always, whether it was an email coming in with a bunch of typographical errors, it was clearly coming from some someplace out of the country or, with a graphic that just looked amateurish when they were trying to pretend to be Bank of America.

And now with AI, it looks and sounds and feels much more real. [00:40:00] Someone can take their Bank America statement, put it in AI and say, I want to, I wanna replicate this exactly, except I wanna change the balance from a hundred dollars to a hundred thousand dollars, or from a hundred thousand dollars to $10 million.

And personally, me and our staff. And as a result, our agents are all over everything. We can be all over, but every day there's a new, there's a new scam and and they're getting less and less obvious. And people are getting more and more vulnerable. 

Yeah. It is the thing that keeps me up at night as well too, because we do have a fiduciary duty to our clients and we want to do everything we can to protect them.

And there's the obvious things. Don't share wiring instructions over email, or if there's a last minute change in wiring instructions, that should be a red flag. Everyone stop, pick up the phone and call somebody. With a two oh seven area code to a title company or a title attorney. That's the low hanging fruit of fraud prevention.

I think. Be aware of something that just doesn't feel right. And, we are doing a lot as a company [00:41:00] and I have a practice. If I, if you reach out to me and we don't know someone in common, then I have a whole series of steps I m going to take to verify identity. And it's not meant to be unkind.

I think Maine we are very hospitable. We were very welcoming. We have to be sophisticated and treat, use the precautions that are at our disposal. And you have provided us with several different layers of protection, again, against fraudsters. Any particular story that, that strikes you as noteworthy on the fraud scale that you are willing to share 

every day There's a new story, most recently is, there's a new Zoom fraud.

I guess the first thing I, is. If you're a seller or you're the agent for a seller, and it's typically a fraudster coming after the seller, that's the problem. If it's too good to be true. It just seems too good to be true. It's a big red flag. You get a call out of the blue. I want to make a full price offer [00:42:00] plus 10% because I really love the property and maybe if you could throw in the furniture or the tractor or whatever.

I want to close in 14 days and I don't want, I don't want to do any inspections and it's all good now. It sounds like too good to be true. It sounds like I m making that up. That happened on Saturday. 

I get a call 

from one of our agents, noon on Saturday. All that's all. That's true. Of course.

Well-trained. They call me. We dig in, we find out who the person is. We find out where they are. We, and to your point We have, we use a product called forewarn, which really helps tell us about the people that we are talking to, assuming that's who they are. And if we don't know who they are, we bought another product called Persona, which is very similar to, what credit card companies do to make sure you are who you are. And it is, it's. It's, we basically send a link to the person. The person takes a picture of their identification, usually a driver's license front, back, and a selfie, send it to a third party. We don't have the driver's license, so it's all very secure through a [00:43:00] secure link and then.

Persona comes back and says they are who they are, or they're not who they are. 

And that's really, that needs to become much more rigorous in making sure that we know. And really before COVID, we did very few transactions, sight unseen. We did very few transactions where we hadn't actually met the person often, multiple times, often for many years at a time before they found the house that they wanted.

And now it became more commonplace and now as you said, we are coming out of that a little bit, but it's still out there and the fraudsters are still leveraging that. And we really look into it. There's now a zoom fraud that's going on where again. Looks real.

An agent will get an email from someone saying and it doesn't need to be an agent. It could be a seller. It could be just you as a homeowner that you get an email. Or you get a text saying, I see your house. I think it's beautiful. I m really interested in buying it. Why don't we get on a Zoom call and talk about it.

You have a couple of questions about the property lines, about the property taxes. Is there an HOA just really basic information? [00:44:00] Sounds very real. It's, that's the problem right now is it sounds super real. Yeah. It seems well, and people would be interested in buying my house and they might send me that, or they might send me a text.

They might reach out to me, they might reach out to you as the agent. And so we happened this weekend. It's happening every day. And our agent in the case with the Zoom call said, why don't I give you a call? And the AI scammer basically said, oh I can't take a call right now, but I'd love to set up a Zoom call.

It turns out I if and again, our agent went on to say that's odd. To the person. I feel a little uncomfortable with that. I don't understand why you can take a call and you can take a Zoom call and normally that would be enough for a fraudster to go away. And the fraudster came back and said, oh I can assure you, I m a real person.

I have real interest and I've read enough ai writing and reading to know that it. Clearly driven by, by AI. Ai it was the text, the intonation, the perfection in the [00:45:00] language was something just it just wasn't casual conversation. Like an email. Or a text might do.

And after trying to convince the agent that me, Michelle was the name of the scammer that she was real, it then disappeared. Yeah. But what happens is if you accept her zoom call, you click on the link. It basically takes over your computer and steals all your information. And there's another one that you have people, and I just heard today, I had another office meeting this morning, two of our offices that these meeting links are showing up in your calendar.

Yeah. And you don't know where they came from and you don't recognize the meeting. You don't know the people. And were you to check? Yes, no. Or maybe it gives them access to your computer, a backdoor end. And so this is really scary stuff. And by the way, we are not the only ones. And so all your listeners could be potentially attacked by these scams at.

For different reasons from different people, but everybody needs to pay close attention. Never click on anything you don't know. That's right. You don't know who it's coming from. You weren't [00:46:00] expecting it. Pick up the phone. I think your advice is pick up the phone and call them. 

Elise Kiely: Which we haven't been as good at.

No. And the technology makes communication fast and efficient when you can text or accept calendar invites and that kind of thing. But again, I think that's one of the thing that makes Maine unique and special is that we are small enough that you're going to know somebody in common or you're going to have a relationship with somebody.

That it's gotten to the point, Chris, where if I don't, we don't have someone in common that we know I m going to be very hesitant to engage. Agreed. Because there are just too many red flags. 

Chris Lynch: Also people are saying or, is I've heard AI is putting everybody out of business.

Is it going to put the real estate industry outta business? I, I don't see that. I don't think so. I am not being naive. I look at, what we bring to the table, especially in a place like Maine. Because no two, two homes have the same value. There's no, you can't take price per square foot.

Right and use that. It's [00:47:00] probably the worst measure of values in the state because the value of the underlying land is really where so much of the value is. Whether you build a 2000 square foot house or 15,000 square foot house really is irrelevant compared to the value of the underlying land.

It's relevant, but not on a price per square foot basis by comparison. And the other thing that really is becoming more and more apparent is not only do we know our pricing, and not only do we know our markets, and not only do we know all the idiosyncrasies of which there are many 

In Maine real estate, but now it's being able to protect our clients, from all this fraud is We have now become, because we have to, really communicate with each other, become the watchdog and the gatekeeper to protect ourselves and protect our clients from these fraudsters.

Elise Kiely: And a lot of that is relationships with the other agents in the community, relationships with the title companies.

Relationships with the lenders. And we are such a relationship driven business that it, I agree. It's hard for me to imagine how artificial intelligence could replace [00:48:00] the strong need for that relationship as a guard against fraud, as a guard against overpaying, underpaying under underpricing a property in Maine.

Yeah. It's, there are too many nuances. 

Chris Lynch: Yeah. I m not picking on Zillow, and they'll probably sue me for this, but I don't, I, the Zillow numbers are never they're like a broken clock, right? They're right twice a day. Clock is frozen. It's right twice a day. And so it's, people thought my Zillow value is that's great.

That's a data point. Exactly. Yeah. I got an appraisal. That's a data point. That's a data point. I got a CMA from my real estate agent. That's an, that's a data point. Oh, my insurance replacement cost is another data point. Price plus depreciation from when I bought it and what's happened in the market.

Another data point, price plus improvements. This is how much I put into it, another data point. And once upon a time going back in a normal world, those, all those data points used to fall in a relatively small circle. And all had some, and now they're all over the place. 

Elise Kiely: And what is hard to calculate, quantify on a specific number is what's the buyer activity?

Yeah. What's the [00:49:00] buyer demand that you get from attending weekly office meetings? Talking to other agents, being aware of what's happening with businesses and universities, and hospitals in your area, because that is a driver of demand, and seeing the inventory, of course, 

Chris Lynch: And price points, is in our meetings we talk about an agent brought a house on the market for $975,000 and had 15 showings and two offers, and another agent brought up property, same time, both had all three legs of the stool at 1.65 million had two showings.

No offers and in each market, because our markets are relatively small, there's a certain number of buyers and certain price points on any given day, at any given time. And so you take away from that, those two data points are really important. In terms of how you think about pricing the next property.

Elise Kiely: Exactly. Chris, this has been so helpful. Thank you for coming in, sharing your wisdom. Let me put you on the spot, if you don't mind. What do you see for the future in the [00:50:00] next two years in Maine Real estate? 

Chris Lynch: So the next two years I continue to be optimistic and again, not delusively optimistic, We have been bouncing across the top.

From a market standpoint, as markets can't go up forever I don't really see the market going up a lot unless we get a big reduction in mortgage rates. 

If we do, we just won't have enough inventory for all those new buyers. If it's just a slow, steady, we go from six and a quarter to six and an eighth to 6% mortgages to five and seven eighths to five and three quarters and so on and the marginal buyers coming in and absorbing, properties that would be healthy.

A big spike down. More buyers coming in at the same time, I think we would see prices go up. 

Elise Kiely: When you say spike down, you mean of interest rates? 

Chris Lynch: Of interest rates, spike down in interest mortgage rates and spiking down again from, call it six and a quarter to five and a quarter could happen.

At that at that point in time, I think we have many more buyers than sellers. Prices would go back up at the moment. What I see is just continuing to bump along the top right. If. If mortgage rates were to go higher, might [00:51:00] we lose a couple of percentage points? 5%? I don't know.

That seems like a big number. 1%. It. It'd be super healthy. We have, literally this market has been going up since 2011. Straight up. 

Elise Kiely: After the Great Recession. 

Chris Lynch: After the great Recession, yes. And so that, is that sustainable? I don't know. It's just we are so small.

Yeah. And at the moment and for the foreseeable future so much in demand. So many people still want to be here. So many people are learning about Maine. It's just hard to see how there's going to be more for sale that's going to drive prices down without buyers and the outside. I think that's right.

Yeah.

Elise Kiely: And just the amount of cash out there in the market, unprecedented immune to the interest rates. Yeah. It has to be unprecedented. I think so. Yeah. I think so. And if you're looking at a house and your plan is to live there for 20 years. I think you make a decision on lifestyle as much as you do return on investment.

Chris Lynch: Absolutely. 

Yeah. Yeah. 

Elise Kiely: Chris, thank you. Super fun to visit over. 

Me too. Me too. But this will not be your last visit here. I hope. I hope you'll come in pretty [00:52:00] regularly. 

Chris Lynch: Oh, I love it. Yeah.

Elise Kiely: I think you add a tremendous amount of value and thank you for all you do for the company and for providing your insight.

Really helpful. Oh, thank you. I love what you're doing. Yeah. Thank you. Yeah. Thank you Chris. Thank you for joining us on Elegant Maine Living. And remember, if you are dreaming of a lifestyle in Maine or already living it, this podcast is for you. Be sure to subscribe so you don't miss an episode. And I invite you to take this journey with me.

Please share it with your friends, family, neighbors, and coworkers. I would love a review and welcome feedback and encourage you to reach out with questions or topics you would like to hear about. You can find me on Instagram, Facebook, and LinkedIn, or simply an email to Elise@EliseKiely.com, and all of those links will be in the show notes.

And remember, this podcast is for entertainment and informational purposes only, and does not create an attorney-client, or real [00:53:00] estate advisory relationship. I am happy to engage. If you have any questions or if I can help in your real estate journey, simply click on the links in the show notes to contact me through social media or email.

I am always happy to help in any way that I can, and we welcome you to come and explore Maine. Thank you for listening to Elegant Maine Living where elegance isn't just an aesthetic, it's a way of life. Until next time, keep living with elegance.

Welcome to Elegant Maine Living. Where we explore the world of real estate with insight and intention. Each [00:54:00] month I share market updates to help you navigate Maine's dynamic real estate landscape. But the true elegance of real estate lies in the communities we build. So I also spotlight Maine's visionaries, entrepreneurs, and everyday leaders.

Whether you're buying or selling or simply curious about life here, this podcast is your guide to the people and places. That make Maine such an amazing place to live, work, and play. Let's get started. The phrase of the day is multiple truths can coexist. If you look at the news on the economy and real estate in particular, you'll notice some conflicting national headlines, but clear patterns are emerging in Maine.

Welcome again to my guest, my second time guest, Chris Lynch, founder, owner and designated broker of Legacy Properties, Sotheby's International Realty. Welcome. 

Thank you. Great to be 

here. 

Chris, really appreciate your coming in again [00:55:00] for your first episode was back in the spring of this year, and I think it's super helpful to have you come in and we can all look at the national headlines and the local headlines about what's happening in Maine real estate.

But you as the owner of Legacy Properties with our six offices up and down the East Coast, have a 10,000 foot view and you get a perspective that advisors like myself on the ground. Don't always get to see. And so I think you're coming in with your perspective will be very helpful. And in fact, you were on our episodes five and six and we talked about how luxury was leading the real estate market in Maine in terms of number of sales and appreciation in Maine and.

Could you give us a reminder, Chris, a little background again on Legacy Properties, the scope of the company, maybe a little bit of the market share and where we specialize. Sure. 

But before [00:56:00] I do that, having done episodes five and six, I just want to say I am so impressed. What you've accomplished here is you've become that voice.

This podcast is amazing. You've had some great people. I've become a big fan and now I've met some of the people who are on your podcast who are such interesting people who bring so much to Maine It's been terrific. Congrats on that. 

Oh, Chris, that's very generous of you to say thank you. This has been a not really a labor.

This has just been a really fun activity. And you're right, we have so many interesting people in Maine, and as we were just saying, they're not all the big CEOs, no offense, but the big leaders in business. I have had leaders in business and I've had my. High school girls that I mentor from Poland, Maine, and everyone around that whole genre because everyone has such a unique perspective of why they're here and it's very intentional when you come to Maine.

It's not on accident 

and the depth of talent, it's just, it's across the board. It's so interesting. 

It is, it's, it is [00:57:00] really interesting. So I love doing this. I m I m surprised how much I love doing it. But it's been super fun. And thank you for saying that. And one of the things that makes Maine special is we have a lot of talent and we have a lot of talent at Legacy properties, and you had a great vision for the company.

And for those who are new to the area or new to real estate in Maine, can you give us a little background on the company and Sure. 

The company now, we are about 125 people in total. And that's quite a bit larger than I ever thought we'd be, but it just turns out that what we are doing and how we are doing it is working.

And so we just continue to have more and more demand for our services. And what we are doing is we are really taking properties now in, in more places and more often and more depth in the more markets with better people, better branding. Better marketing. Our social media program has been fantastic.

We have really been investing in products to help our clients. Find better homes or sell their homes at better [00:58:00] prices. And it sounds so simple, but there's so much out there. It's very complicated to get the right people in the right places with the right information at the right time. And We have been working on that, extensively, as 

and it's interesting because to sell a home in Maine, one of the things that makes Sotheby's unique and so special is the global reach. And the sophistication of our marketing from our photography to the staging assets that we have to the print and digital marketing that we do. And we were just talking about the legacy collection, which you created.

We did for the company. As a proprietary print periodical that comes out, highlighting some of our special properties, has really gotten great review and a strong interest to people. The feedback on that has been really strong. 

Chris Lynch: we are working on our next edition as, as recently as this morning, and that should be going out next week.

But, as We have forgotten a little bit, I was. Really the first real estate newsletter in the Sotheby's [00:59:00] International Realty System globally. I started doing these newsletters that were more market and orientation. It wasn't about bragging about what we are doing or talking about us. It wasn't a sales piece.

It was really, let's look at market trends and let's communicate those good, bad, or in. And we started that in 2006, which was really before anybody had thought about real estate newsletters. And now We have grown that distribution to probably 150,000 people per month. Most all of whom have a, a direct interest in Maine real estate.

Elise Kiely: That's amazing. Yeah. And great exposure for our clients. It is and great education for those looking to come to Maine because we talk not only about the houses, but we also you have other periodicals that talk about the communities, and it's so important to share with someone what their life could look like living here and moving to Maine.

Chris Lynch: When we started the company, I would argue there were very few people who didn't already have a connection to Maine, that were coming to Maine. And really what's changed in the last decade is people who [01:00:00] had no connection have discovered it in large numbers. And once they see what's here and see how available it is and the accessibility, probably 10 years ago I did a in-person accessibility tour.

Where I went around the country and I went to all the Sotheby's offices in some of our feeder markets like Boston and Greenwich, Connecticut and New York City, Washington, dc in Naples, Florida, and Dallas and Fort Worth. And I just talked about the accessibility that people find when they get here is if what, whatever you like to do, you can move here day one and do it.

If you were, if you wanted to have a boat slip on the Potomac and you're in Washington DC it's a 20 year wait list, right? You wanna join a country club in Greenwich, Connecticut. It's a 10 year wait list. You move here, you have a boat on the water the next day. You put your application in for the country club.

It might be a week or two or three but it's just it's the quality of life here. Pound for pound is just, it doesn't exist in many places. 

Elise Kiely: I think that's so true. And we were just saying before we [01:01:00] hit the record button that there are also so many. Really interesting community organizations. If your passion is mentoring young people, there are some great organizations for that.

If your passion is helping people learn young people learn squash, for example. There's a great organization in Portland for that. If your passion is helping people. In recovery. There's great organizations for that, and all of those guests are going to be guests or have been guests on the podcast, and I think that's, we are accessible not only for skiing access to the coast, we are accessible for intellectual interest as well, and I think that's what makes it such a rich place to, to live, work, and play.

Chris Lynch: Sure. And I know a bunch of those programs that you speak of, and they're a big part of our charitable giving process from Legacy Property Sotheby's International Realty. we are at the point now where we probably give to 70 or 80 different charities. Yeah. As We have grown as a company. Our ability to give more has [01:02:00] also grown, and that's been super rewarding.

Elise Kiely: That, that's been great to see. And Chris, let's talk a little bit about the company and then I m really excited to get in and talk about your thoughts on where the market is, where the market's going, and some of the drivers, you have a really talented team. At the company, everyone from operations to financial to marketing has you, you've really developed a really strong talent pool and I don't think clients see behind the curtain that much and have exposure to that, but you have you have a.

Dynamic team that is constantly doing research about what is happening, what are the numbers in Maine, what are the numbers regionally, what are the numbers in some of our feeder markets where, you know, one of the nice things about Maine is we get things last. Changes in the rest of the country happen first and then they slowly make their way to Maine.

That includes fashion and design trends and sometimes market. Market shifts 

Chris Lynch: it's so slow sometimes it never gets here. It is. It moves across the country. It usually starts in [01:03:00] California, sometimes in New York. It works its way across the country. It gets to New York, comes to Boston, sometimes even gets to Portsmouth, New Hampshire, but may never make it to Maine.

And by the time it does, the trends already going the other way. And so we miss whole cycles here, which is good and bad. But so far it's been really good for us. 

Elise Kiely: Let's dive into some of the trends that we are seeing on the national level. And, you could look at headlines and see conflicting information.

NAR right now says that year over year sales are up a little over 4%. And median sales price and median is half or above and half or below median sales price nationally is up just over 2%. It's around 415,000 month over month. It's that number is closer to one and a half, and you hear headlines from the Wall Street Journal that luxury sales are slowing down.

As uncertainty rises the next week, you could have another article that says real estate is a hedge on potential recession. Yahoo Finance said that 1 million plus homes are [01:04:00] still the fastest part of the market and they're up 8.4%. Other studies are showing and I think this is very accurate, is that first time home buyer age is now 38.

That's amazing. That's amazing. That's a significant shift and I think we are seeing some of the effects of that when we do our, our day-to-day deals and the affordability pressures. And we are going to talk about that. But I'd love to get your perspective if someone were to come to you and say, Chris, I see all these headlines in the national news.

Should I be worried about my property in Maine? What's happening here? 

Chris Lynch: So Maine is, again it's I said all the trends nationally eventually get here, almost to all of them, but there's ones we miss the whole cycle. There's things about Maine that are unique, some of these bigger states, these bigger markets a.

There's a lot more turnover, it's a lot faster. The markets move a lot more quickly just because every single sale is a data point, and as those data points proliferate [01:05:00] both up and down, those markets tend to move a little faster than Maine. In Maine, we are just, we are slower. We have a much smaller market.

There might be, I don't know 15,000 homes, 16, 17, maybe 17,000 homes that sell in the whole state and the whole year. That's not very many. So we don't have that velocity, that turnover. It's not like car sales. Cars, you have to sell, X many, so many cars a day.

And I look at car sales, interestingly enough as a leading indicator and Maine car sales. I am actually on the board of Lee Auto Malls, which is a terrific company great company, family owned business, and really enjoy getting together with them, which we do four times a year. The but auto sales.

Have a lot of same dynamics. They are tied to interest rates, they're seasonal, they're cyclical. A lot of the things that we look at are, influential in the same buyer, making the same kinds of decisions. They're big decisions and they just have more velocity. So what happens with cars, because it happens more quickly, is usually a leading [01:06:00] indicator for what's going to happen with real estate.

Elise Kiely: Oh, interesting. That's a, that's an observation I think most people wouldn't have assumed. But it makes sense and I wouldn't have either, had I 

Chris Lynch: not been on this, 

Elise Kiely: board. That makes complete sense and when you look at the Maine numbers, just to, not to go through them in too much detail, but just looking for trends.

The most recent statistics from Main Association of Realtors shows that sales are up a little over 5% year over year. And We have had a slight dip in the median sales price, just over 1% dip, and we are around 402,000 for median sales. Price and inventory seems to be increasing a little bit, and I have people anecdotally come to me and say.

At least I feel like I m seeing more for sales signs, what's happening in the market. And if you look at, for example, Cumberland County, where we are sitting today in Portland or York County in the southern part of the state, you see pretty healthy. Increase in sales and median sales price. I think Cumberland county's up over about 10.5% and this is on a [01:07:00] rolling quarter basis and median sales price is up about four and a half percent to around $605,000.

York is increased about 10% in sales, and the median sales price was up about 4% at 550. And so you look at those two counties and. You have to read below the headline. Of median sales prices decreased in Maine. Okay. It decreased 1%. Do you think that's a big tailwind telltale that of things to come, that slight dip in median sales price?

Chris Lynch: First of all, you know your numbers. You have to know your numbers. So what's interesting about that and you're right, the statistics for September looking year over year just came out and it showed a slightly, basically 1% dip in the median sales price. It's only the second time since 2019 that We have had a year over year.

Decrease. And the last time was in March it was 0.9%. So call it, 1%. It is neither [01:08:00] one of those numbers, in my opinion, are meaningful. And yet We have also seen over the last year, it just said low single digit increases. What I would call bumping along the top of the market.

Maine was the fastest, had the highest percentage increase in sales prices of any state in the country. That's amazing. Amazing. But we are starting with a great product that had limited inventory, just because of the size of our, this is just a small real estate market, and all these people that we just were talking about who've discovered what Maine has and even when I first moved here, I'd be like, a lot of the people I met were here.

They didn't necessarily move here for a job. There aren't a lot of big companies in Maine. It's basically a small business economy for the most part is they were here because they could be. They were here because they did something special, they did something different.

They did something where they could bring what they do from where they were to where they want to be. And most of them were looking for less traffic, less noise, less crowding, more access to all the things we talked [01:09:00] about. And so it's still, it's just going to be hard for this market if you're a buyer and you're on the sidelines now and saying, oh good, it's down 1%, it's down 1%, kinda year over year.

This is a new trend. I is, I think you're going to be sadly mistaken. I, it's just, we still have too many people who want to live here. 

And 

even though our inventory is growing. Right now there's just under 5,000 single family homes in the whole state. Available for sale. And I don't know how many buyers are, because it's, there's no measure of that, there's no statistics.

But I m going to say it's five fold that, let's say it's 25,000 buyers. And that's probably not a bad number. And so if and a lot of these buyers in waiting for one of two things, one, they're not going to see, which is big decline in price and the other is looking for a big decline in mortgage rates.

With the Fed easing. They believe they're going to wake up one day, they mortgages are going to be back at four. I don't see that happening. Could they be back at five and a half? Absolutely. If I were to pick a number for the end of next year being, we are six and an [01:10:00] eighth, six and a quarter now, somewhere in there that five and a half percent seems very reasonable.

And that's, and there's a big difference. The caution is all the other buyers are going to see that too. And so we'll have limited inventory and a lot more buyers will say, oh, five and a half, that's my number. Coming into the marketplace and then prices are going to go up again. 

Elise Kiely: And 

Chris Lynch: so all that, you're taking from one side and giving to the other.

Elise Kiely: I always caution, and it's mostly people buying. If not their first, their second home. And often it's the children of clients of mine who are nervous about getting into the market and they're waiting for this big dip, this big reduction in prices to happen. And as they've been waiting for the past year, the prices continually go up.

And at some point you need to get on the train because you're not going to be at the head of the train. Now you're you're in the middle or maybe at the end of the train. You've gotta get into the market because that is where one of the traditional avenues for wealth creation, and if you continually sit on the sidelines, you're denying [01:11:00] yourself opportunity.

For appreciation for the stability of living in your own home, the equity buildup and whatever tax benefits there are and there, and you can't do it naively, you have to go in with a trusted advisor and do it strategically, but there seems to be this. Increased opportunity for people that are incumbents, people that have, are in the real estate market, and then people that are in the stock market and people that are increasingly getting shut out.

I encourage people to just look at an opportunity to get in, and I think some people still are hung over from the 2008 Great Recession when we did see some reduction in prices. Not the reduction that people are looking for now, given the buildup we had during COVID. I just, I don't see the prices coming down.

Chris Lynch: I don't see 

the prices coming down either. And the other thing, which all those sidelined folks are actually renters now. So they're driving up the price of rents. So it was five years ago, if you were paying whatever, [01:12:00] $1,500 a month, that was $1,500 a month, that wasn't going towards equity in your home.

That was 3000. As those rents, so now it's 3000 a month. That's not going towards the equity in your home, and so it's a big, it's really a super interesting time. 

Elise Kiely: Yeah. 

Chris Lynch: There's one concept I want to introduce. We haven't talked about it, but is seasonality. So Maine historically was a seasonal market.

The season was really from call it March through the end of October, and so now we are at the end of October and what has, what was happening for many years before COVID is we would go into this really. Quiet, slow period from November 1st, Thanksgiving in there to Valentine's Day, and right after Valentine's Day, mid-February, we'd start to see the market go up again.

And a lot of the sellers, particularly that had seasonal homes would close them down for the winter. Would not put them on the market and buyers say, I really don't want to come to Maine if I don't have to right now. because I am enjoying myself somewhere. That's really warm. And I will say in [01:13:00] Maine's not nearly as bad as people think.

It's 

Elise Kiely: That's true. So true. 

Chris Lynch: It really is. Especially coastal Maine. It's, anyway, it's so much more temperate. We can go back to that but what? What I think is happening this year for the first, so when Covid hit, we had no seasonality because we had so many people who wanted to buy and so few houses for sale that it didn't matter if you bought it on in mid-January, mid-February, the end of December, Christmas day and New Year's Day.

We had agents that were showing properties on Christmas day and New Year's Day and New Year's Eve, Christmas Eve, Thanksgiving Day and there was no seasonality. To speak of. I think this is going to be, because there has been that increase because there are so many people on the sidelines, at least early on starting November 1st, starting Thanksgiving next couple weeks, is I think we are going to see more seasonality and in my mind that's the first opportunity I see for buyers who really are motivated, who really do want to get in ahead of. Not wait until the mortgages, mortgage rates come down. And get in [01:14:00] ahead of all the competition that's going to come in when mortgage rates come down is there's a unique buying opportunity I think over the next three or four months.

Elise Kiely: I think, I think that's exactly right. Chris I a hundred percent agree. And I think sometimes buyers, when they look at the market, they look at inventory levels, which makes perfect sense. And you touched on this earlier, one of the things I think they don't think about is their competition. And who are the other buyers looking at what they're looking for in the market and how many are out there.

And we have so much cash. In the market right now, and we are going to talk about that in a minute, and where that cash is coming from, that's also having an impact. And if you are a cash buyer, if you have access to cash, I feel like this is the sweet spot. Fourth quarter, first quarter, 26. This is the sweet spot.

And one of the things that and in full compliance with clear cooperation rules, but one of the things. I think our agents really specialize in, and I know it's about a third of my practice is finding off market [01:15:00] opportunities and that is a real opportunity for buyers and there are advantages to the sellers for that as well.

There's, there are pros and cons to both, but if you are a buyer that is, has an opportunity to strike. In this calendar year, the beginning of next, this really could be a prime opportunity but if you wait until second quarter of 26, you may be regretting that you didn't get in earlier. 

Chris Lynch: Absolutely. 

Yeah, absolutely.

Interestingly enough, over the last year and a half both my boys who are right around 30 years old little over bought homes. And neither one of them really worried about, am I buying at a market peak or not. Both of them were recently married. Both of them were renting, both of them were paying a lot in rent.

They saw the rents going up and they decided no influence by me. In fact, I was surprised. They decided independently of each other. But around the same time, within three or four months of each other, they both bought homes. One in Washington, DC one, one here in Maine. 

Elise Kiely: So a little younger than what we are seeing.

[01:16:00] Average first time home buyers. Quite a bit younger. 

Chris Lynch: Yeah, quite a bit. And really smart. Yeah, smart. And 

they both really bought super nice interesting homes. Homes in places that really suit them. Yeah. 

Elise Kiely: Chris, let's talk a little bit about the high-end market. And the luxury market, and We have talked many times how the definition of luxury market has, is evolving.

It used to be pre COVID, a million 1.2 1.3 That was high-end. That was luxury. It's not the case anymore. And I would argue, and it's subject to debate, but I would argue that it is at least 2 million. It's probably around two and a half is what I would consider the high end. And there's some.

Communities around Portland where a million is pretty close to the entry level price point 

Chris Lynch: Absolutely. For a single family home. 

Elise Kiely: And it's interesting I m always looking at the numbers of and of sales at different price points and I looked this morning and your figure of 15,000 homes.

To date, there've been [01:17:00] 15,200 homes that have closed this year. Okay. Pretty good. I was just guessing. Yeah, you were spot on the ballpark. And if you look 

at what, which of those homes were a million plus. Over a thousand homes year to date have sold for a million plus. Then you step it up, you look at 3,000,000 seventy eight homes.

Then you look it up at 5,000,000 twenty three homes this year in the state of Maine, sold for over 5 million. That's extraordinary. Where pre COVID, I think it was somewhere in the neighborhood of five. Oh sure. Yeah. And that was extraordinary. That would've had a Portland Press Herald article, and that would've been all the talk.

And now it's, it's 23. I didn't look above that. But one of the significant sales that We have had this year in our office was the old Betty Davis Estate in Cap Elizabeth. And that was marketed and successfully sold by Bill Gainor out of our. Kennybunk office and Sam Michaud out of our Portland office.

They did a great job in marketing that lots of press, and that sold for around 13 [01:18:00] and a half, I think it was 13 point, 

Chris Lynch: 13.4 million. 0.4 million. 

Elise Kiely: That was an incredible sale. 

Chris Lynch: It's a record sale in all kinds ways and in a record sale for us. Yeah. For us as a company, 

and it was just slightly beaten by the last record sale, which was I think around 12.

Yeah. 12 million. 12 million. 12 million even, which closed in was also Bill Gainor, which also in Kennebunkport So it, that's an, that's a milestone. 

Yeah. 

Elise Kiely: And we look at that and I continue to think that the high-end buyer. Who was cash and that, I don't think, I don't think it's public, whether that was cash or that was financing.

I m assuming that was a cash deal on the Betty Davis estate. 

Chris Lynch: You have to assume, so the banks in Maine don't lend $13 million. Yeah, right on. On single family residential real estate, 

Elise Kiely: and I would argue that the high end buyer, the two and a half plus buyer. Is almost all cash. It's, and they're having such an influence on the market and from what I see, it is someone coming usually from away looking for a lifestyle property [01:19:00] and two and a half probably won't get you on the water.

You might be close to it, might see it. I think you're looking at a three, three and a half to be on the water in the greater Portland area. My sense is they've done very well in the stock market. Maybe they sold a business, done real estate, done well in their real estate portfolio, and they're treating themselves to something special.

I, I call this group labs luxury active, usually baby boomers. And I say that very affectionately with that name, but they're having such a strong influence on the market. Are you seeing that at the 10,000 foot level? 

Chris Lynch: I absolutely. With the exception you kinda hit on it a little bit, is I was born in 1962.

So 63 years old, I just at the tail end of the baby boomers, and so it's really now that the buyer, so once upon a time it was all baby boomers. And it was, when I started the company 20 years ago our youngest buyers were probably 55 on average, but really 60 to 70 recently retired.

Typically [01:20:00] executives that were looking to buy a summer home for over a million dollars to, have their friends family come and spend the summers with them. And now the buyers are much younger. I m going to say 40 to 55. 

Elise Kiely: I m going to have to car start calling them lax luxury active.

Ex X Generation. I think that's the X laxer. Yeah, Laxs. So we'll think of that, but that's interesting. Yeah. 

Chris Lynch: So that's probably been the most notable change. And also to your point, just the size of the market, over a million dollars. Back in 2009 when the market was in, in some tough straights there were 99 homes that sold in Maine, in the whole state in a whole year for over a million dollars, 99 homes.

And so it's. That part of the market has grown so much and the higher the price point, the more likely it is to be all cash. Which is interesting. Again, counterintuitive. 

Elise Kiely: Yes. 

Chris Lynch: Yeah, counterintuitive. Yeah. 

Elise Kiely: And when I talk to my CO, and one of the great things about being affiliated with Sotheby's is our network across the country, across the [01:21:00] globe.

And I like a lot of agents in our office. Am on in networking groups with other Sotheby's advisors throughout the country and in parts of Canada. And that's a trend I am seeing nationally with our other colleagues. It is that and again, it goes to this incumbency issue of, people that have been in the market for a long time have created a significant equity.

They're con equity heavy in their other real estate portfolios because they bought so early on. Yeah. Which I find really interesting. One of the advantages of get to. We get to meet and really get to know really interesting people that are moving here or they're already here. And trading houses is, you learn from them.

You learn their history, you learn what they did in business, and you take some wonderful tidbits and lessons from people that have had great success in life. And I think it's important to look at that and see what they did and emulate it where you can. And I think. Being involved in the real [01:22:00] estate market at an early age is, I would argue, is probably a common denominator from a lot of these people.

Chris Lynch: Absolutely. Absolutely. It's funny and. When I m meeting with a prospective home seller, one of the things I like to know is, why did you buy this house? What were you thinking about? What was it that made it attractive to you and how to take some of that information and share that with the marketplace, because in all likelihood, the buyer who's going to buy your home is going to buy it for a lot of the same reasons you did.

Elise Kiely: That's 

interesting, Chris, because I have had the privilege of. Selling some significant properties this year that have been in the same family for generations, and it is really, it's, and it puts a lump in the seller's throat when they are at a position, when they're going to sell a generational home, and it's usually on the water and tremendous memories.

Baptisms, birthdays, weddings that have taken place at in these [01:23:00] homes, and they are a magnet and a glue for a family. And I think that's really what's so difficult. It's not the value of the asset that is, that's significant, but it is a milestone. When you sell something that's been in the same family since the sixties, 

Chris Lynch: the value of the memories Yeah.

Is huge. Yeah. Yeah. And. I think that's one of the things, and you've touched on this before, that makes Maine real estate so special that if you find a really special property and it's could be on the water lake, ocean could be on a mountain. Sure. If it's really special when someone buys it. They're going to keep it and they're going to do what they can to keep it in their family.

Absolutely. And the flip side of that is if they find it, they see it and they don't buy it, they may never find another one again. 

Elise Kiely: That's right. 

Chris Lynch: Because each property is so unique even side by side, next door across the street. Half mile every property has its own unique set of characteristics that speak to different people in different ways.

And it sounds funny saying that, but really is the fact of the matter in Maine. 

Elise Kiely: I think that's, I think that's so true and [01:24:00] it's we don't have a, we have some, we don't have gated communities here in Maine, like our friends in Florida do. We have neighborhoods and cul-de-sacs, and they're wonderful.

Tomorrow is Halloween. They'll be wonderful and active on trick or treat night. And we have quiet. oasis that draw people. And we don't have a lot of commodity real estate in Maine. 

Chris Lynch: Almost No two houses the same. 

Elise Kiely: Yeah, exactly. Yeah, exactly. And it's a privilege to be a part of that transition. And one of the things I like to do when I m marketing a home like that is to emphasize.

How few people have owned this home for the last a hundred years. That means something. That's, if you can find something that's treasured that much, that's a significant value, I think to, to the property itself. Sure. 

Chris Lynch: Our house is going to be a hundred years old next year, 2026. Oh yeah. 

Elise Kiely: Congratulations.

Chris Lynch: Thank you. 

Elise Kiely: And I don't see you selling it anytime soon. No. We have been there for 

Chris Lynch: 25 years now 

already yeah. Yeah. 

Elise Kiely: It's a very special spot. Chris let's [01:25:00] adjust to a nuance. One of the things we see of the high-end buyers coming in, another trend that I am seeing is. The gifting of cash from those cash rich buyers demographic group to their adult children so that they can be cash buyers and be competitive.

Because we still have multiple bids on a lot of properties. Sure. Oh yeah. In the greater Portland area and York and I think in up north and down east, I should say. Down east. 

Yeah. 

Chris Lynch: Camden, Rockport. And also Bar Harbor, Northeast Mount Desert. Yep. 

Elise Kiely: Yeah. And so we are still seeing for the, if a property is priced right and it's in good condition and good location, and we are going to talk about that three-legged stool idea in a minute, but I m still seeing a lot of cash.

That transfer of wealth, if you will, happening before it, it passes through inheritance, but passing through gifting, which has its own tax consequences. But I m seeing a lot of. First time home buyers coming in mid to late twenties, early [01:26:00] thirties, with that asset of cash and being able to be a cash buyer.

It's, I would say 85% of my buyers in that demographic group are cash and they're being gifted. Yeah. Which is really interesting. 

Chris Lynch: It is and so happy for them, to be able to, at such a young age, get to Maine. And enjoy everything that Maine has to offer. It's an outdoor state. It is biking, it's hiking, it's walking, it's skiing, it's mountain climbing, it's surfing and what have you, and snowshoeing and cross country skiing. And all that is having that youth and that energy to be able to find a spot where you can do all those things. Within an hour or two of your health.

There's the, people talk about the sea and ski in the spring, right? Yeah. When you can ski in the morning at Sugar Loaf and go in the ocean down to Scarborough Beach in the afternoon. Listen, there are people that are surfing at Higgins Beach and Kennebunk Beach year round. I know. And you could surf and ski in the same day.

Elise Kiely: Yeah. Which is incredible. 

We, it is a very special, a special spot. And as you said, people are here intentionally. Yeah. You don't come to Maine by accident usually. No. No. And the people that are [01:27:00] here. Up being very proud to be from Maine. Sure. It's a badge of honor. 

Chris Lynch: Yeah. My kids are, it was funny, I was talking to my 24-year-old daughter and she's, Maine is so much a part.

She lives and works in Washington DC now, but so much apart, I wouldn't be who I was without Maine. I thought that was really interesting and it wasn't solicited. She just came out with that when she was last visiting. 

Elise Kiely: That's lovely. Yeah. That's a lovely foundation. Yeah, I know. My children feel the same way.

Yeah. I have one in Utah and one in Boston and they both feel a sense of pride and you've mentioned when you go to these amazing educational opportunities, networking events through Sotheby's, how all you have to do is say you're from Maine and people want to come and talk to you. 

Chris Lynch: They do.

They find it very interesting. 

They did. They don't even remember my name. They don't remember. They just remember he's the guy from Maine. I don't remember his name. Yeah. But I want to go see him. 

Elise Kiely: Chris, let's talk about the three-legged stool. Sure. I talked about a little bit you wrote about this concept a few years ago.

And I think in one of our luxury outlooks. Sure. C can you describe what that is? 

Chris Lynch: It's a pretty [01:28:00] straightforward way of looking at real estate and, every home. Regardless of where it is or what it is, has a value. And what we try to do is we try to generate and create the most value for our selling clients, and we try and help our buyer clients get the most value by finding properties that, that meet their criteria.

The three-legged stool is really just simply looking at, location, condition, and value. And it's a and you said it earlier, a good home in a good location at a good price is going to sell a great home. In a great location at a great price, it's going to sell for more. And an okay home in an okay location and an okay price, still a good price, fair price is going to sell, but for less. And really the first thing that you know, when you put a property on the market, you look at the market reaction. And if what's supposed to happen doesn't happen, you go back and revisit the three-legged stool.

Is it really a great, is it a, is it as great a home as we thought? Is the location more [01:29:00] challenged than we thought and or is the price wrong? And you could have none of the three legs and. Two of the three legs, but if any one leg is missing, it's typically more of a challenge to get the property sold.

It's typically more of a challenge for a buyer looking at it to see the value that We have ascribed to it in the listing price. 

Elise Kiely: It's interesting the, you look at how this business is done from an advisor perspective. During Covid was very different than pre COVID. And the skills that we had to bring, the assets we had to bring were very different and representing buyers was extremely difficult.

And you wanted to make sure you maximize value for your seller. But navigating for buyers was a really challenge. And one of the things that I think is we have a responsibility to do to our seller clients as we are. Transitioning out of COVID, and I still think there's, we are still transitioning out is educating sellers of where we are in the market now and having a sometimes difficult conversations upfront [01:30:00] when expectations may be different than the market realities.

But that's where training and expertise come in. And this is not an industry for a hobbyist or. Someone without training to go out and to go out on their own. You really need to have that experience. 

Chris Lynch: You have 

to pay attention. There's a lot going on. And, we talked a little bit about Legacy Property, Sotheby's International Realty, and I really do think one of the keys to our successes, we share a lot of information, a lot of information about the practices, a lot of information about how to deliver a product.

We, everybody's very well informed. You're so facile with all the numbers and all the data and all the things that are going on and that's a really important part of delivering the value to a buyer and or a seller. And I think we, that's something that we do particularly well, and the hobbyists may have another job.

We just don't do that as a company, is, we are full-time agents. Take it very seriously. We have a fiduciary responsibility to our clients, again, be [01:31:00] it buyer or seller that we take extremely seriously. 

Elise Kiely: And I think one of the biggest assets that we have within our company are our regular office meetings.

That we do virtually. It would, it takes a lot for me to miss the meeting from the Portland office is on Friday mornings. I will arrange flight schedules, other commitments so that I don't miss that because it is so important to hear from colleagues, not only what listings they have coming up, not only what buyers they have coming up, but what are they seeing what unique.

Experience or story? Did they have? Is that a trend? Is that something we need to watch for? And the most valuable part of that very efficient 30, 35 minute meeting is your take. What are you seeing from a DB level? What are you seeing about deals staying together, maybe deals falling apart? What's the pace of.

Properties going under contract that we are seeing. Where are we vis-a-vis last year? Because we can look at the statistics for the state or even for the county, but those aren't our statistics within the company. [01:32:00] because we have a very, I think, unique part of the market and we have extremely strong market share.

Chris Lynch: And that's the place where we can take individual data points and find out is there a trend? I had a transaction fall apart in other days. It's funny, I did too. Another agent I did too. So that's unusual to have three or four agents on the same call, have a similar experience, which is pretty unusual to have properties fall apart when theyre contract.

Elise Kiely: One of the things, trends we are seeing, and I think we are not unique to this, is given the role of ai. Given bad actors out there and the ease of which they have of getting access to information can, let's talk a little bit about what you're seeing from a fraud perspective. 

Chris Lynch: So fraud, 

again, question I probably get asked most often is, Chris, what are you worried about?

You're worried about the market, you're worried about pricing, you're worried about liquidity, you're worried about anything. I m not worried about anything except fraud. Fraud, as it turns out, is probably. The most worrisome piece of our business. And it's not just real estate. There's fraud [01:33:00] everywhere. And as we all know, we see commercials every day that particularly the baby boomers are the biggest targets. And the sophistication of the fraudsters in the scammers have gotten better and better. We have always been targeted as an industry because we work with big numbers and.

But we were always able to see it. It was always, whether it was an email coming in with a bunch of typographical errors, it was clearly coming from some someplace out of the country or, with a graphic that just looked amateurish when they were trying to pretend to be Bank of America.

And now with ai, it looks and sounds and feels much more real. Someone can take their Bank America statement, put it in AI and say, I want to, I wanna replicate this exactly, except I wanna change the balance from a hundred dollars to a hundred thousand dollars, or from a hundred thousand dollars to $10 million.

And personally, me and our staff. And as a result, our agents are all over everything. We can be all over, but [01:34:00] every day there's a new, there's a new scam and and they're getting less and less obvious. And people are getting more and more vulnerable. 

Yeah. It is the thing that keeps me up at night as well too, because we do have a fiduciary duty to our clients and we wanna do everything we can to protect them.

And there's the obvious things. Don't share wiring instructions over email, or if there's a last minute change in wiring instructions, that should be a red flag. Everyone stop, pick up the phone and call somebody. With a two oh seven area code to a title company or a title attorney. That's the low hanging fruit of fraud prevention.

I think. Be aware of something that just doesn't feel right. And, we are doing a lot as a company and I have a practice. If I, if you reach out to me and we don't know someone in common, then I have a whole series of steps I m going to take to verify identity. And it's not meant to be unkind.

I think Maine we are very hospitable. We were very welcoming. We have to be sophisticated and [01:35:00] treat, use the precautions that are at our disposal. And you have provided us with several different layers of protection, again, against fraudsters. Any particular story that, that strikes you as noteworthy on the fraud scale that you are willing to share 

every day There's a new story, most recently is, there's a new Zoom fraud.

I guess the first thing I, is. If you're a seller or you're the agent for a seller, and it's typically a fraudster coming after the seller, that's the problem. If it's too good to be true. It just seems too good to be true. It's a big red flag. You get a call out of the blue. I want to make a full price offer plus 10% because I really love the property and maybe if you could throw in the furniture or the tractor or whatever.

I want to close in 14 days and I don't want, I don't want to do any inspections and it's all good now. It sounds like too good to be true. It sounds like I m making that up. That happened on Saturday. 

I get a call 

from one of our agents, [01:36:00] noon on Saturday. All that's all. That's true. Of course.

Well-trained. They call me. We dig in, we find out who the person is. We find out where they are. We, and to your point We have, we use a product called forewarn, which really helps tell us about the people that we are talking to, assuming that's who they are. And if we don't know who they are, we bought another product called Persona, which is very similar to, what credit card companies do to make sure you are who you are. And it is, it's. It's, we basically send a link to the person. The person takes a picture of their identification, usually a driver's license front, back, and a selfie, send it to a third party. We don't have the driver's license, so it's all very secure through a secure link and then.

Persona comes back and says they are who they are, or they're not who they are. And that's really, that needs to become much more rigorous in making sure that we know. And really before COVID, we did very few transactions, sight unseen. We did very few transactions where we hadn't actually met the person often, multiple times, often for many [01:37:00] years at a time before they found the house that they wanted.

And now it. Became more commonplace and now as you said, we are coming out of that a little bit, but it's still out there and the fraudsters are still leveraging that. And we really look into it. There's now a zoom fraud that's going on where again. Looks real.

An agent will get an email from someone saying and it doesn't need to be an agent. It could be a seller. It could be just you as a homeowner that you get an email. Or you get a text saying, I see your house. I think it's beautiful. I m really interested in buying it. Why don't we get on a Zoom call and talk about it.

You have a couple of questions about the property lines, about the property taxes. Is there an HOA just really basic information? Sounds very real. It's, that's the problem right now is it sounds super real. Yeah. It seems well, and people would be interested in buying my house and they might send me that, or they might send me a text.

They might reach out to me, they might reach out to you as the agent. And so we happened this weekend. [01:38:00] It's happening every day. And our agent in the case with the Zoom call said, why don't I give you a call? And the AI scammer basically said, oh I can't take a call right now, but I'd love to set up a Zoom call.

It turns out I if and again, our agent went on to say that's odd. To the person. I feel a little uncomfortable with that. I don't understand why. You can take a call and you can take a Zoom call and normally that would be enough for a fraudster to go away. And the fraudster came back and said, oh I can assure you, I m a real person.

I have real interest and I've read enough ai writing and reading to know that it. Clearly driven by, by ai. Ai it was the text, the intonation, the perfection in the language was something just it just wasn't casual conversation. Like an email. Or a text might do.

And after trying to convince the agent that me, michelle was the name of the scammer that she was real, it then disappeared. Yeah. But what happens is if you accept her zoom call, you click on the link. It basically takes [01:39:00] over your computer and steals all your information. And there's another one that you have people, and I just heard today, I had another office meeting this morning, two of our offices that these meeting links are showing up in your calendar.

Yeah. And you don't know where they came from and you don't recognize the meeting. You don't know the people. And were you to check? Yes, no. Or maybe it gives them access to your computer, a backdoor end. And so this is really scary stuff. And by the way, we are not the only ones. And so all your listeners could be potentially attacked by these scams at.

For different reasons from different people, but everybody needs to pay close attention. Never click on anything you don't know. That's right. You don't know who it's coming from. You weren't expecting it. Pick up the phone. I think your advice is pick up the phone and call them. 

Elise Kiely: Which we haven't been as good at.

No. And the technology makes communication fast and efficient when you can text or accept calendar invites and that kind of thing. But again, I think that's one of the thing that makes Maine. Unique and [01:40:00] special is that we are small enough that you're going to know somebody in common or you're going to have a relationship with somebody.

That it's gotten to the point, Chris, where if I don't, we don't have someone in common that we know I m going to be very hesitant to engage. Agreed. Because there are just too many red flags. 

Chris Lynch: Also people are saying or, is I've heard AI is putting everybody out of business.

Is it going to put the real estate industry outta business? I, I don't see that. I don't think so. I am not being naive. I look at, what we bring to the table, especially in a place like Maine. Because no two, two homes have the same value. There's no, you can't take price per square foot.

Right and use that. It's probably the worst measure of values in the state because the value of the underlying land is really where so much of the value is. Whether you build a 2000 square foot house or 15,000 square foot house really is irrelevant compared to the value of the underlying land.

It's relevant, but not on a price per square foot basis by comparison. And the other thing that really is becoming [01:41:00] more and more apparent is not only do we know our pricing, and not only do we know our markets, and not only do we know all the idiosyncrasies of which there are many in Maine real estate, but.

Now it's being able to protect our clients, from all this fraud is We have now become, because we have to, really communicate with each other, become the watchdog and the gatekeeper to protect ourselves and protect our clients from these fraudsters. 

Elise Kiely: And a lot of that is relationships with the other agents in the community, relationships with the title companies.

Relationships with the lenders. And we are such a relationship driven business that it, I agree. It's hard for me to imagine how. Artificial intelligence could replace. The strong need for that relationship as a guard against fraud, as a guard against overpaying, underpaying under underpricing a property in Maine.

Yeah. It's, there are too many nuances. 

Chris Lynch: Yeah. I m not picking on Zillow, and they'll probably sue me for this, but I don't, I, the Zillow numbers are never they're like a broken clock, right? They're [01:42:00] right twice a day. Clock is frozen. It's right twice a day. And so it's, people thought my Zillow value is that's great.

That's a data point. Exactly. Yeah. I got an appraisal. That's a data point. That's a data point. I got a CMA from my real estate agent. That's an, that's a data point. Oh, my insurance replacement cost is another data point. Price plus depreciation from when I bought it and what's happened in the market.

Another data point, price plus improvements. This is how much I put into it, another data point. And once upon a time going back in a normal world, those, all those data points used to fall in a relatively small circle. And all had some, and now they're all over the place. 

Elise Kiely: And what is hard to calculate, quantify on a specific number is what's the buyer activity?

Yeah. What's the buyer demand that you get from attending weekly office meetings? Talking to other agents, being aware of what's happening with businesses and universities, and hospitals in your area, because that is a driver of demand, and seeing the inventory, of course, 

Chris Lynch: and price points, is in our meetings we talk about an agent [01:43:00] brought a house on the market for $975,000 and had 15 showings and two offers, and another agent brought up property, same time, both had all three legs of the stool at 1.65 million had two showings.

No offers and in each market, because our markets are relatively small, there's a certain number of buyers and certain price points on any given day, at any given time. And so you take away from that, those two data points are really important. In terms of how you think about pricing the next property.

Elise Kiely: Exactly. Chris, this has been so helpful. Thank you for coming in, sharing your wisdom. Let me put you on the spot, if you don't mind. What do you see for the future in the next two years in Maine Real estate? So the next two years I continue to be optimistic and again, not delusively optimistic, We have been bouncing across the top.

Chris Lynch: From a market standpoint, as markets can't go up forever I don't really see the market going up a lot unless we get a big reduction in mortgage rates. If we do, we just won't have [01:44:00] enough inventory for all those new buyers. If it's just a slow, steady, we go from six and a quarter to six and an eighth to 6% mortgages to five and seven eighths to five and three quarters and so on and the marginal buyers coming in and absorbing, properties that would be healthy.

A big spike down. More buyers coming in at the same time, I think we would see prices go up. 

Elise Kiely: When you say spike down, you mean of interest rates? 

Chris Lynch: Of interest 

rates, spike down in interest mortgage rates and spiking down again from, call it six and a quarter to five and a quarter could happen.

At that at that point in time, I think we have many more buyers than sellers. Prices would go back up at the moment. What I see is just continuing to bump along the top right. If. If mortgage rates were to go higher, might we lose a couple of percentage points? 5%? I don't know.

That seems like a big number. 1%. It. It'd be super healthy. We have, literally this market has been going up since 2011. Straight up. 

Elise Kiely: After the Great Recession. 

Chris Lynch: After the great Recession, yes. And so that, is that sustainable? I don't know. It's just we [01:45:00] are so small.

Yeah. And at the moment and for the foreseeable future so much in demand. So many people still want to be here. So many people are learning about Maine. It's just hard to see how there's going to be more for sale that's going to drive prices down without buyers and the outside. I think that's right.

Yeah. 

Elise Kiely: And just the amount of cash out there in the market, unprecedented immune to the interest rates. Yeah. It has to be unprecedented. I think so. Yeah. I think so. And if you're looking at a house and your plan is to live there for 20 years. I think you make a decision on lifestyle as much as you do return on investment.

Chris Lynch: Absolutely. 

Yeah. Yeah. 

Elise Kiely: Chris, thank you. Super fun to visit over. 

Me too. Me too. But this will not be your last visit here. I hope. I hope you'll come in pretty regularly. 

Chris Lynch: Oh, I love it. Yeah. 

Elise Kiely: I think you add a tremendous amount of value and thank you for all you do for the company and for providing your insight.

Really helpful. Oh, thank you. I love what you're doing. Yeah. Thank you. Yeah. Thank you Chris. Thank you for joining us on Elegant Maine Living. And remember, if you are dreaming of a lifestyle in Maine or already living it, this [01:46:00] podcast is for you. Be sure to subscribe so you don't miss an episode. And I invite you to take this journey with me.

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