Investment: what markets did last month

Markets bounced back in April, with the MSCI World Index posting its strongest month since 2020 despite continued geopolitical tension.

James Timpson explains the market's behaviour, why the US is leading, and how diversification continues to support client portfolios.

Plus: a look at emerging markets – past, new and current stocks, and key standouts from the last decade – a decade that has seen Courtiers win 16 Lipper Fund awards.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:06

Courtiers Head of Asset Management James Timpson is here to talk us through what's been happening in markets and around the world throughout April 2026.

SPEAKER_00 0:13

James, kick off for us. Thanks, Leo. Well, as I'm sure you know, the Iran conflict is still ongoing and the oil price is still elevated. And this time last month, Jake and I were sat here when we were saying how there'd been a bit of a market downturn in March because of all this uncertainty. Well, actually in April, there's been a bit of a market recovery. And the MSCI World Index, which tracks global developed equity markets, that's actually just had its best month since November 2020, which is when the first COVID vaccine was unveiled.

SPEAKER_01 0:47

So why why is it that the conflict itself doesn't appear to have resolved any? Yet markets appear to have resolved themselves. What does that say to you, sentiment?

SPEAKER_00 0:58

Well, partly, well, part of the reason why the MSCI world has done so well in the last month is because it's so heavily dominated by the US. And not only is the US a net exporter of oil as opposed to importer, so it's less affected by all these geopolitical tensions. But also, in the last month or so, there's been a bit of a resurgence in the AI rally. So in the last few months, um the big tech stocks have actually been underperforming other equity markets. But last month there was a bit of a rotation back into them. So the US was one of the biggest performers last month, and that's why the global equity market as a whole has done so well. Other markets, they've also done well, but not quite as well as the US. Um the UK was a bit of an underperformer last month. The FTSE 100 was only up just over 2%, whereas the S P 500 index in the US, that was up about 10% last month. So it just shows the different sort of swings you can have in different regions based on what their big exposures are. In the US, it's tech, whereas in the FTSE 100 you've got more energy, oil, and banking companies. No tech, hardly any tech whatsoever.

SPEAKER_01 2:05

Thanks, James. So with this short-term view in mind, big question: what does all this mean for the Courtius funds and for our investors?

SPEAKER_00 2:14

Well, Courtius funds are quite heavily invested in equities. Um, we do like to be as close to our risk limits as we can possibly be. So, for example, in the Cautious Fund, we will never exceed 60% because you know we have very strict risk limits. But because we are optimistic with equities on the whole, we will try and be fairly close to that level. And within that equity exposure, we will make sure that we are well diversified across different sectors. So we have exposure to the US, uh the UK, and um emerging markets as well. Emerging markets actually had a really strong month last month because they actually bounced back quite heavily. Having been hit quite hard by the conflicts in March, they bounced back quite a lot um in April. So that you know it just shows how important it is to have um exposure to as many different regions and sectors as possible.

SPEAKER_01 3:07

So your favourite word um yourself and amongst the team, diversification. We seem to mention it every video. It's working well. We can say we can't have my home enough, can we? Yeah. James, I want to expand now from the last month to the last ten years. Congratulations to you and the team. I've managed to speak to Jake and Gary and now yourself.

SPEAKER_00 3:28

Well, um, I wasn't going to mention it, Leo, but seeing as you have, um I think you're talking about this thing here, aren't you? Yes. Um finitive award that we got this year. I should um um be honest, this is actually one from a couple of years ago because this year's one hasn't arrived yet. It's on order, right? But we do have a bit of a problem because we are starting to um run out of shelf space upstairs. So when the new one does arrive, I'm gonna have to squeeze it in somewhere. I'm sure we'll find somewhere for it then.

SPEAKER_01 3:54

Amongst all the books in the investment library.

SPEAKER_00 3:56

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 3:57

Well, well done, James. So, yeah, we all we all know a lot's happened over the last decade. The world's changed dramatically as a result. I'd like to ask you, what's the three most memorable moments over the last decade working at courches?

SPEAKER_00 4:11

Well, the one that always sticks out for me because it was the first really big market event um that I was around for was the COVID crash back in 2020. And what was most memorable? Um, other than the market falling over 30% in just one month before bouncing back quite quickly, it was the fact that we were all working from home as well. So it was a completely new experience for us all. Um, and I remember even these videos, we were doing these from home as well. So I had to set up the lat the iPad in my living room and um speak to you from there. And so we still put the videos out um in a timely manner. Um so it was ultimately business as usual, but just it felt very strange.

SPEAKER_01 4:51

It taught us a lot about tech. Yeah, yeah, and and and here we are today.

SPEAKER_00 4:55

So two more. Um, what else? Um I guess shortly after I became um um an actual named uh manager on the funds, that's when the um Russia-Ukraine invasion happened in early 2022, and that kicked off what was a really, really volatile year. So it's a bit of a baptism of five for becoming a fund manager. We had all sorts of that year. We had as well as the invasion itself, we had double-digit inflation, we had the mini-budget, we had guilts crashing. Um, it was a very tumultuous year. But um, again, you know, it's good to be thrown in at the deep end, I guess. Um and it feels quite nice when you have relatively quiet periods because it means you can actually concentrate on new and interesting things rather than having to deal with um market volatility.

SPEAKER_01 5:48

Sure, and in your position you cannot fear the VIX index. No, no.

SPEAKER_00 5:52

In fact, in some cases you can embrace it. Um often when you do get periods of market volatility, some opportunities will emerge. And I guess it's our job to seek those out.

SPEAKER_01 6:02

Sure. And the VIX index, just to clarify the measure of volatility in the market is specifically um the US equity market, yeah. Sure, sure. Thank you. Okay, we've just got one more then. Last ten years.

SPEAKER_00 6:12

One more thing. Um I guess it would be um my first client seminar back in 2017. Um, so nearly 10 years ago now. It feels like you've been doing much longer. Oh, really? Yeah. Um I can still remember it really well though. Um I remember I only had like the eight or nine minute presentation, um, and it was on it was on US presidential rankings because Donald Trump had just done his first year in office, um, and then a couple of um charts on how the FTSE had done and the SP 500 had done. Um, and then of course I started playing your cards right, which has stayed ever since. But um I do remember being quite nervous during that first seminar, whereas now uh it's completely different. I actually look forward to doing them now.

SPEAKER_01 6:57

So um so the the first seminar was when Trump had done his first term in office.

SPEAKER_00 7:02

Um yeah, he just finished his first year of his first term, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 7:06

The last seminar you presented his Liberation Day poster presenting impact on the markets throughout the world, is that right? That's right, yeah. Wow. That's a lot of time. Um, James, coming back to now then, so markets have stabilised. Uh coach's funds are managing the the ups and the downs.

SPEAKER_00 7:29

I'd be hesitant to say that they've stabilised. Um they have recovered from their initial downturn, but there's still lots of volatility around. So we have to wait and see what happens then. This is why I'm not in investment. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 7:40

Uh that's great. So anything in your sights then?

SPEAKER_00 7:44

Um, yeah, actually, just this week, um you may remember about two years ago, we mentioned one of these videos that we'd bought a basket of Thai banking stocks in a bid to increase our emerging markets exposure. In the last two years, those three banking stocks have returned about 25% per annum. Um, and so we feel the time has come to let go of two of them at least, and we've replaced them with a Thai healthcare stock, which has come up in our model. So we're turning over the emerging markets portfolio, which is always quite exciting.

SPEAKER_01 8:16

And was is that intent on staying in emerging markets?

SPEAKER_00 8:19

Oh, yeah, we still want to stay in emerging markets. So right now we've got um I think just under 8% of the growth fund is in emerging market stocks.

SPEAKER_01 8:27

Great. And uh did one other remember I couldn't remember the name, a lighting company. Oh, that would be Signify. Signify. How's that been getting on?

SPEAKER_00 8:36

Um I'm not sure specifically how Signify has been getting on. Um it's one of the more recent stocks in the Global Fund and the Ethical Fund. Um, but obviously we've got about 60 different stocks between all the equity funds. So um I can't remember off the top of my head what that one's done.

SPEAKER_01 8:50

I might ask you again next month, so make sure you're switched on. Oh, very good. James, thanks again as always for your time and for the insight. If you do have any questions, please speak to your advisor or contact us through the website. Thank you.