運命のブラジル戦！W杯「ノックアウトステージ」に隠されたカラクリに迫る

#42 | 見事にW杯のグループリーグを2位で突破し、ラウンド32でブラジル代表と激突することになった日本代表。今回は、48カ国に拡大した影響で最も大きなレギュレーション変更となった「ノックアウトステージ」の歴史と仕組みにフォーカス。なぜ大会前から「3位抜けすると80％の確率でフランス代表」という予測が立てられたのか、その複雑なカラクリと単なる組み合わせからは見えない「隠れた変数」などを丸裸にして語り尽くす第42回。

エピソードの中で言及したビジュアル情報を、インスタグラムにも投稿しています。ビジュアルを見ながら聴くと、さらに楽しめるので是非フォローを💪

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いよいよブラジル代表と激突／アップセットが少ない大会／カーボヴェルデの躍進／ノルウェーも強い／今回は「ノックアウトステージ」にフォーカス／なぜ3位抜けでフランスと当たることが予測されていたのか／48カ国に拡大したことで大きくレギュレーション変更／グループリーグの意味はあるのか／1986年メキシコ大会のリバイバル／上位２位抜け方式の方が良かった／ヒリヒリ感が欠けていたスウェーデン戦／グループ3戦目の戦い方に影響／「ヒホンの恥」事件／80分間の無気力試合／ロシアW杯・ポーランド戦でのボール回しを生で見ていた二人／３位抜けのデメリット／開催地間の時差と距離／３つの開催国優遇が引き起こす隠されたルール／事前に決められた495パターン／80%以上の確率でフランス戦のカラクリ／ラクな相手はいない／早めに相手と会場が決まるのが最大のメリット／移動・日程・気候面で有利な国と不利な国／メキシコが有利な理由／優勝候補スペインに立ちはだかる隠れた壁／組み分けドローにまつわる陰謀論／なぜ開催国グループに強豪が入らないのか／冷えたボールの真偽／今回のブラジルとは十分戦える／冨安がヴィニを抑えられるか／いかにゴールを奪えるかがカギ／絶対に勝って上に行きましょう！

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伊藤直樹 (PARTY代表 | Creative Director)
濱田小太郎 (Editor)

Cover Visual: kuno.fell.asleep
Sound Design: 村井 智

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#思暴

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 1:15

So this night, eh? Don't deny to car. So this one. Cabo billion.

SPEAKER_00 1:43

Hi.

SPEAKER_02 1:44

Cabo bird is loyal. So Nancyo. Hi.

unknown 2:03

Hi.

SPEAKER_00 2:04

So de Makaiba, my mana has no cut of stage.

SPEAKER_01 2:16

Hi.

unknown 2:29

Hi.

SPEAKER_00 2:30

Sorry, kick on cars. Nandila Mitana. So so so to Makonka e so nonoka to stage. Hi Makonka i Maokina Kore Madana Chigaito Sarnuka. Ma ima deas Masanju Ny chimi, this is a tigtanskido. Yonji Hachka Sankasid top, if we not see formato, no okina henkana gain to ga, difinat. Besto, siri. Mat the high canosega, majorni eto guru padin de sonona kano se ki jo inno hachimi ka sikino landenimo similito. You to guruga kito kina wada in nati dito, you tokordiscane.

SPEAKER_02 3:41

Kurakarma takido.

SPEAKER_00 3:43

Hi, you sendia up tigure chemus eh Matai Bitataikata michiga ne iskir mina sorazin kiniga didnatu kanji modin koreva hontwani, katia garit tikoto kanga to, ma kokono dy ormaku, katio dikta tokruga eh my winya gatirito, you can't so none the seo. Oh shirabidina tat de myma de no, titu mine o taikaikara, mato y kachio kite no katino, ma shira bitansi so nan dottio kinapointo siwa konka inakona bestosri hoski or sayositanoka, sankya katsero kinam mikisko taika. Hm naniso nai. Nano de mazenka no man nan ni mada, yonjun my inaroka, yonjun my ni kaisa ta makuskum onaj ma mikisko, kakai saiko de mikiso taikaino, my she di bybari me tine kala chide. Nat dinokekomosapointo anato, uman masane. Koreishki sans kan eh skan eh so na hajokuneno to gino. So so so kekoko hunto y maritonaj de bestosi hoski hat me ste told the said any to atal cana, macon kaito na zio na koto atita tito Ino de hontwani kimiona, goodin sa kanji card. So the man eh my mama de no, ma zinka madan taika, sanja chim de hatigu de my jo in e chim with a kigasendina, not demor, arish ne fit to war fand that soli nazi mi galah, so cut on a pak putin a mar nish, eh, and kaywakan. Kekko ni jo ini teamitew, what it to hontni hiri take as a kutti kanji gal de ma hoca simple cutana t week and mar no kekwapati, not to get kidukka.

SPEAKER_02 5:59

Kutosikiswe de sam mitete hmihiri kan nakata sone apari no sede sauce ni de dose i kerushi ma getem or side ikirushi bitina.

SPEAKER_00 6:15

Hm so you chuto kinch kinchon e to kita Sosene Nanka Mautagaini cole mama de e dishul dina. Funki a do some delish bahuntoni con station dikto, Sweden tikina miss and dikto. Might stai chide o alas oh ga. Mam musi core de saadingoga hite la couldin a chat de Goro kimitemuzugi brazi rata hobo mova katiljotai. Hm penaruto, asa wasa Brazitata in the moit and turinikayonate a mochatas So na kasoyene Ana I donna jijoga dono fizas kasi putin yu de Nagata kawali natina chotto. Nekono sin formatono, ma hega itter arika machina sketo. Machoto kanji tato wali mosan eh.

SPEAKER_02 7:12

Soichi nu kameza tatumbisio. Bitter kanji. So ne, kedosono Uranda no to ten kite signichin at ten ito chy. So this in that's a tari mo chotonaga, akira me tatoyuka mmiskko cush the ten authority gaguni machoto or sortitatoyuka. Hmung so you can be machine.

SPEAKER_00 7:45

Yeah nkashka masono and a joho ka jitsu an ascension make a lamo, and um think okay mini high chataraske no sanction handam, to water tigurut and kasukura henga chotaki na what I do attackanati wasono my very dango mother can likeo. Kakono, you don't na lection like a de myona kotoga te manaduri don't know some atomus do himan dango mitana nanka mukashi at that inu a de disney. Senke no Nijo young kakok de okonamarita spain taika ide hon haji de huni Yo fale kekojin got telashinsa. Kodwa an matoj so nishidoit to ya no maturo no saichi sang, de octajikin anske do. Zin hanjuk ni shidoit toldin shidoit no horoso de bessit, do you say go to the sense to must it all day solizer what the hole gain in a cotaland change to the kid you took your defish matatame. No core hajji pm what tagino team border co in mawasia dadi. Goro keep and border modoshikatae. Punkan hobomo, suck on she either says she nakata dude mahajit, what it's in or she are cup puntu kini and a poor and the same minute does pungura yee. Point on sade, keep the kidpa when you got a duty can't de sonoj pinju hungura to board marsh or shut you know, Mamma Tad is no deep. So the so you could say kakeka de kinayo ni so tion hajjino dicotini tictaluri. So in a mate ima dudni don't tiktato. Kan' kakinohan no the mun eh tab. Wakarokara, you eat a girl dot him, dota, dota was uh, so it got semo. Say, I got ticket in a maritomoske do que no isino tai kai that to more, you don't nax you or my take.

SPEAKER_02 11:48

Tai hen book daras uh America Daras in your tiny on semi tap Tikanjans.

SPEAKER_00 13:51

So young, then became so stake car, no kumi eyegumi no, ichi tataritaisen no patanga, yaknanji lo kai atato. The koregas on a hatio sante look pa cento, the karasine, sante lookpa centerized at the no fifagawit is in hapmi no to bay vakiniotem kimati tato. You can't so ne?

SPEAKER_02 14:23

Hm Korea decision it. No signito nigas on the tomoske Soreto Hi to Onaji Sikesarete Mote Sareti Ara Kajime. Source. Sorry, can I khriza good answer? So nan. So, I'm not sure what I'm saying.

SPEAKER_00 15:34

Hi.

SPEAKER_01 15:45

Hi.

SPEAKER_00 15:54

Kono, with a gowany, son devian kigashi de So could a kick a bimbo kuji chatanoga many hono good tattio kotunanokamishiness, eh?

SPEAKER_02 16:05

Hi, hi.

SPEAKER_00 16:06

So so they gang on e conka muzukashi, you don't na kumi commodita do kut samita, don'a don't no seva matte chat tat you some a kasime some kai psycho saddle mos or taika you know my business in that if at seva, so kuamo keep style.

SPEAKER_02 16:37

Korean stu a tatatara. So, yeah pariah Mekishko to Arika nayun sickis are tho at si no pan. Mekisko Madam Mekishko a site Musi Brazilian y hungtara Tsigino Mekishko Ingran to. Madimatore moe Amerika we go solidaritimo Belugi to katata. Sono to porto spin to katata. Ma hm dokumara this tie hand this now. So night is near pretty well.

SPEAKER_00 17:53

Ma so item kickiness. So, how many kimati pun de kinoka? My tea nini high ta Moja Mino Pasuki mat de So kid it no can come since So Matagatara noa equ to this.

SPEAKER_02 19:04

So he paraded to a party, Nagana ka you don't so you got Tanganiska?

SPEAKER_00 19:12

Hm Todo ima Sanova e to Makunka in a sa taika no kakr a hen sa pani ido to canite to kiko? So then this is a cannot you kimat tickle me dana. No wow shard not to cut a con kindataika, you know what this is your motto mochiri taking it, doon sash a taika. So you don't cock cigar, titu are motomo yuri na gisko fulancy kake ko yuri that tivne. New York, Philadelphia, Boston, but make it all. So you don't care mosque.

SPEAKER_02 20:36

So not chalk.

SPEAKER_00 20:37

So nan so spin. Kawa is on you. So so so so so nancio.

SPEAKER_02 21:26

Hi not to cosmic tame taken. So uh uh Sanjiga handle, caladani Stansi I must be a good thing.

SPEAKER_00 21:54

So the maso that so can I too.

SPEAKER_02 22:08

So that's a make is a coach, eh? Hi, hi, hi. So, you know, it's a little bit so made. No, hold on, hold on cookies, saddle can I get all makeup and imagine a canji over it. So so so so it was a silly.

SPEAKER_00 25:05

So no nakade, another screen also, Matoshiances, eh? Sigusne. Hiya Doska Kate Moska, Brager.

SPEAKER_02 26:04

So I do car to show Randano Hoga.

SPEAKER_00 27:28

Hi ten them to any much conduit to a PKM ma who might have been must. Hi, I told them.