不用對短期的虧損有太大的反應，因為承擔風險是獲得報酬的唯一途徑《投資金律》

──如果只能讀一本投資書，這本就夠了！──

美國最大共同基金公司先鋒集團創辦人、指數化投資教父約翰．柏格（John C. Bogle）
投資學經典《漫步華爾街》作者伯頓‧墨基爾（Burton G. Malkiel）等人力薦

亞馬遜書店理財暢銷榜二十年長踞不墜，中文版累銷超過六萬冊
備受讚譽的指數化投資殿堂級教本．大幅改寫新譯版

以當代角度重新剖析投資四大支柱──「理論」、「歷史」、「心理學」、「產業」
並提出適合各年齡段、各類型投資人的具體策略建議
從入門到資深的當代投資人都該讀、讓你少走冤枉路的絕佳好書

財經作家、「綠角財經筆記」站長　綠角　專文導讀推薦──

「投資界有一位我最重視的專家，他寫的每本書、每篇文章、每場訪談，我都會閱讀與追蹤，那就是本書作者威廉．伯恩斯坦。

　　威廉．伯恩斯坦值得關注的理由並不是因為他可以準確預知市場何時即將大跌，下一支飆股為何，而是因為他講的都是有憑有據的投資原則。《投資金律》是他所有著作中最知名的一本，自2002年刊行以來，幫助了全球無數投資人建立投資觀念，實行投資計畫，為自己取得更美好的財務未來。

　　二十年過後，經歷了2008金融海嘯、2020新冠肺炎疫情，2022連續升息等市場動蕩，作者納入最新的觀察與體會，推出新版《投資金律》。假如你已經看到這段文字，千萬不要錯過本書內容，那是真正的投資珍寶。」

——

◤被動式指數化投資先驅，投資學經典之作全面更新版！◢

　　威廉．伯恩斯坦，除了是位在專業上受人景仰的醫生外，在投資領域他更是受人尊重的智者，處女作《智慧型資產配置》至今仍廣受尊崇，而《投資金律》這部成名作更是受到高度肯定，書中的獨到見解獲得投資泰斗先鋒集團創辦人約翰．柏格、《漫步華爾街》作者伯頓．墨基爾及《商業周刊》等專業媒體的讚譽，自2002年出版後長銷不墜，被譽為是所有投資人、從新手至專家皆該閱讀的投資經典。

　　而在出版二十年後，因應全球投資環境及工具的高度變化，以及伯恩斯坦本人對金融理財相關知識觀念的學習與演進，他著手大幅度更新改寫《投資金律》內容，於2023年重新出版，讓這部投資學經典再度跟上最新世界投資市場實況。從資料數據、工具到投資哲學與方法，以及從近二十年來發生的重大市場事件，如2008年的金融海嘯、2019年的Covid-19、2022年股票與債券的大屠殺等獲得的新觀點，皆囊括於此次更新內容中。

◤從投資理論、歷史、心理到產業，一次吸收美國最優秀投資顧問的一生絕學◢

　　透過簡明易懂的敘述分析及真實生活中的投資案例，本書將帶你從各個面向理解投資行為，以循序漸進的十八堂課，剖析每位投資人都該熟知的投資四大支柱，幫助你快速建立最正確的投資觀念，打造低風險且能真正獲利的投資組合。這四大支柱分別是：

▍投資理論：理解風險與報酬的關係、如何看待折現率與股價、通貨膨脹在預測報酬率時扮演的腳色、預期長期股市報酬的「高登方程式」該如何參考、為什麼我們不該依賴基金經理人、不同年齡階段成年投資人的資產配置該如何規畫……－－「報酬與風險密不可分，形影不離。」

▍投資歷史：投資市場長達數千年演進的歷史與實質意義、回顧市場處於高點狂熱與谷底蕭條時的不變定律、經濟泡沫出現的四個典型特徵、安然度過市場谷底的策略……──「我們必須從他人的錯誤中學習，因為我們沒有足夠長的生命去一一犯下所有過錯。」

▍投資心理學：最常導致投資錯誤的三種思考偏誤、我們為何會受「以偏概全」重創、與各種人性偏誤周旋的策略──「在追求投資成就的道路上，你的最大障礙就是鏡中那個凝視著你的自己。」

▍投資產業：金融產業三大支柱－－證券經紀商、共同基金、財金媒體的運作策略與目標，以及你該如何跟他們打交道：如何分辨投資顧問的好壞、千萬不要為了投資購買保險商品、漸入佳境的共同基金與它的妖魔化、指數股票型基金（ETF）的優勢與陷阱、該如何分辨能相信的財金媒體與網路資訊──「雖然整個金融產業已經不像過去那麼危險，但你還是有必要提高警覺。」

　　「如果對投資的心理學、歷史和投資產業本身缺乏實務上的認識，即使是最優秀的投資理論大師都會成為災星。這四個廣泛領域都非常值得我們深入研究，而且，這些研究就如同椅子的四隻腳，只要拆掉其中任何一隻腳，你的投資策略肯定會失敗。」

　　除了上述四大支柱之外，伯恩斯坦在最後一部「投資策略：整合思考」中，將進一步告訴你如何整合上述四大投資金律，建立、維護、享用一個首尾一貫的投資組合策略，達到獲致理想財富的最終目標。

　　投資是一趟沒有目的地的旅程，《投資金律》將告訴你如何建立投資組合，在長期投資中成功獲利。避免分心、堅持到底，你將確立你的財務方向和目標，為你和你的家人創造長期穩定的財富，並真正享受到財富能帶給你的美好人生。
 
 
作者介紹
作者簡介

威廉．伯恩斯坦William J. Bernstein
威廉‧伯恩斯坦是一名退休神經科醫師，也是效率前緣投資管理顧問公司（Efficient Frontier Advisors）的聯合創辦人。他寫過很多財經書籍，包括《智慧型資產配置》、《投資金律》，以及《投資人宣言》，另外，他也寫了四本歷史書籍，包括《繁榮的背後》、《貿易大歷史》、《言語大師》（暫譯），以及《群眾的幻覺》，這些書分別和十九世紀初經濟成長的反思、世界貿易史、科技方法對人類關係與政治的影響，以及大眾狂熱的歷史與社會心理學等主題有關。

伯恩斯坦在同行評閱的財金文獻方面也頗有貢獻，而且他平日為多家全國性刊物撰寫文章，包括《錢》雜誌與《華爾街日報》。他也在二〇一七年榮獲特許財務分析師協會（CFA Institute）的詹姆斯‧佛汀獎（James R. Vertin Award）。


譯者簡介

陳儀
目前任職專業投資公司高管，曾任投信基金經理人，實務經驗豐富。譯作超過百本，包括《億萬救援》、《價值的選擇》、《史迪格里茲改革宣言》、《大債危機》、《物聯網革命》、《大查帳》等，譯著甚豐。

 
目錄
中文版導讀：2024你一定不能錯過的投資書籍／綠角
引言／喬納森．克雷蒙（Jonathan Clements）
謝辭

▍導論    致富高速公路
投資金律一：投資的理論／投資金律二：投資的歷史／投資金律三：投資的心理學／投資金律四：投資的產業／四大投資金律的應用

第一部    投資金律一：投資的理論

▍第一章　不入虎穴，焉得虎子
財務理論：風險溢酬／不只是擲硬幣／另一個重要的術語：期望報酬／要如何估計股票的期望報酬率？／性、謊言與折現率／從期望報酬率到已實現報酬率—也就是把通貨膨脹「當一回事」的重要性／國際股票的數據對我們傳達了什麼訊息？／股票的風險會隨著時間的流逝而降低嗎？／債券的期望報酬率／眼前二○二三年的期望報酬率又是如何？

▍第二章　風險與報酬面面觀
真的有某些股票的未來期望報酬率比其他股票高嗎？／深層風險：唯一真正攸關重大的風險

▍第三章　隨機王國近代史
三個臭皮匠勝過一個諸葛亮—市場的集體智慧／小心致富高速公路上的「市場派權威道路薄冰」／既然如此，何不如自行買股就好？／那麼，彼得．林區和華倫．巴菲特的超群成果又怎麼說？／最後是你可能從未聽過的兩個人

▍第四章　完美的投資組合
低標準差固然好，但低相關性更讚／匯率的影響：鏡花水月／與股票低相關性的資產／正價差又來搞破壞／分散投資還行得通嗎？相關性的問題

▍第五章　給成年投資人的資產配置──第一部：世界上沒有資產配置精靈
資產配置的舊約全書

▍第六章　給成年投資人的資產配置──第二部：投資人的年齡
沒有信託基金的年輕人本身就是一檔巨額的債券／對退休老人最重要的數字／用另一個方法來看待退休收入：「負債配合投資組合」與「風險性投資組合」／應該根據年齡決定債券配置比重嗎？／中期（退休前）：對所有人而言最棘手的階段／一切盡在時機

▍第七章　給成年投資人的資產配置──第三部：標準投資組合
整體股票資產類別／側重多少？側重哪一類？／輔助型股票資產類別／幸福就是擁有溫暖的債券／某些標準投資組合／一次搞定的選擇／全球懶骨頭投資國度／投資組合的複雜度—由單純至複雜／為什麼要投資REITs、貴金屬股權和能源股？／債券／固定收益

第二部    投資金律二：投資的歷史──當市場抓狂時

▍第八章　金融時期簡史

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:04

Come on, I gone to Bunchineko Tao Chi Gum Lot Childin Bayan C Tan Ham and Toyo Gare San King Four E C Yun Gun Le Woman Gong Sigar May. Some Leila Chan Yi. Come Charlie say that teacher chocolate su get chocolate, Korea Taoji Child, Pedok de Samhao. Sonia Tao Ti Little Zidole Le Gaio Bo Chao Tong Fong Him Chigan Kemat Pat Holf and Y Guan Hai. Sonfana On Chun Ya Tauzi Hai Pi Mutzi W Dale Baibo Chau. Gamleung Long Taozi Sinhong Gai sec Yo Korlim. Sin Hong yat woodin one den walked up some persang bo challet. Sinhong yi j n di a phong secreting bo chao. Yo jato ting me legal in j walk that sampersang bo chao. Yo jato fan mina three sing dumb subpersang quite soon. Sinhong yet le son don chingasin ja sinhong yi hai jat nan sai le hollongole san ho. Danhai Yun gai sun gana gai kayan. Sinhong yak bow chowle, kisa yun but cup sin hong yi. Sinhong ye lin vaba bo chao, high bad in ya sepens. Digo let told tosh later high m dim yesent, ch so I get fung him yek chao. Wingo gon, while tong go sang down fung him, like it but caught then sanga woked up, na go yet jung chao. Gangile, jong ha cham you see chang a phong sec. This one's cham you come yung si chango phonsec, yet zai kuna, yek gukuna, zai kuna tai tongo so cho lazeck pong sec with tai chigum. Ji and ton typhoon baya di chong chong yip ja social yi gucuna tai chi lay fan her maga chanyib sogun ja sang my one go se guton y se me title lungo sinton chikole. Could they phon him to my bow chowle? Hop hop hoyeng doon to my gugun lung jung sang yong get out zigong go zai kun to my gobio zai kun sang to one then di bow choule gau dai ye some besen with gam supresen getting doubo chao case a teton may walk sang tai go bu choule tomb sang sang gun yi m dim sen gifong him yik chhole y to hold zip gun go bu gun gefong him yik chao. Tumil gay jong xi chan, how me ato zi chat le do lockle, to chanzai gong a din poitade. Si changle, kisa sang don chi gay, yi shall. Choil langa jung kai tie and zido gisona, foy fumbo hollang walduk chiu yi si changabo chao. Sis a sang, don so ya jun yip king gayan, chho bun ye j don gegum critic how wong wong to but you so far gay gum. Come hollong with our si chan son yaho ta zig go sh out, si lo mina, tecti goila j or de goosan bath. Ya yet gellom lindo yi lengi y yet lin, di bun gotosai gale mina kum sigalin double shall later high go da yi subtim yet per sent high tuda pumba subtim ye besen. Dale batheta like his gang chip can sum yaner. Kum machin tonga kigum king lyan. Kusan yadu chik cham you could shot si yo ga k yipke ken yang kun ne yonle so a san wu get letongola hola mo fong. Come to dim gale, but and sita will su me dialecto nego, si so ying tau zi. Tile him mon monga si chan diha mean cham jhao yao takubio, but you take chip jong yo sanga di hozi hai hola nya tau si jodin to forgot le put cup die pon. Come but you, but my e tfam y si. Come goin late lona, so you tam to lexila tauji lexi, just so I kam wong xi loy, liuga lexila me do hong si mong me loy, be do a little tangma di muchun yin sa fong her. Jong kun yung sia so in chang tai king choi side butin panseng, ta jungga to king like joho dogan bouti, cho chyang yungla si chong, zha wan yao yim jong yek cho jeng. But dun to jo to my choizong lung dunomina pai dog. Y lidi he fo wong wong chatong pomut, my but fun. Sulomina lich kay like, why jumange lam pomodla, chin ge form onguba pomotla, wungo agon, yan no leg si tauji seizomindo a hu che banban. So inhao chando, poon woon boot mungyes and gungu se tau zisa bagang on naila, chitom siuginye. Dim guy, which ans pomoda, gang the hokga hoy mangsi gate chok pomu kingwella, y le go to yoga, doji pomo sang. The yap dai lot. Don't so pomwona, hadong seacher nyo go to yi chin guan. He sun ty foon song one ging zihale, tau zite have king her sayong gang diagon gon yin yle do zido si choto pancha. Dagi gaize chong san gaizo langai gangho sungwo di goton si dai pom di tori sao. Yan the sun gaze of go king on se do ling se chang, budo saddong mon low pomoda, the yigato isang A I pomoda, the go to pang, uh the uh V R A L uh N F T uhangi commun pomoda, jun dabosai. I might go NFT Ba cashin man for whetjun cut uh y gaga gindola pon gong. Case a chong sanny, di pombo. Some demon pund fasan gun, chok chang why don't like jung jong phong liter you see some wall. Don't say we ashamed to y come yung ta okay. Pomot kale gifuan yang du he se chang chamaka. Total bingo ten doler, a bing a bingo hang song zifu, a bingo bingo major beta pyro or bingo you gated my AI ban five senang. Don't let kindo letong ho. But gong you should wagas yao. Fong hei jun yip, tau yap gum yung tau gekho job, hold on, to lic yao, fong he ya bojangong jok, tawy up bo shall gang go seacher. Son tola, with a jet fatongek, tong another little gold injun ta yes yale, ja we kwan hei gongikko. Kik tiny yin, hodo, gold yi lockunya yu yin fan fan ch long. Case a lady pomula but tang, kay linja go king yakole, j A I gase bow fatma, gama four by case a to sun yafoon song gave wood. Don sing ya sea ny lockwan dan hai tong zang lidiu taiko king gok. Come gong you. Genji, tauzi yan zansa, tum to some lay, he tau zila means so by ny cursik Soana Taozi sip cut lung her so hot, to my yan seng. Kwa taozi upuna hai soha, the puna sasi bangar. Wingo gon j in form donga. Kum yung tao zile, tho hai si upiu, yinal, tato kikw, kit dan gai soon, dana la, kanga hai wo yan senga yang her. Yao yansenga dim gale o chun hei lam hai pomu kesiale kongju mangin. Go langle kai soon tin taiga one hang time hoban fat gai soon yan loyo fung kong. Wungga gon you legatila m dan zila yu guanji soha, jung ybi sole someha yuga yanseng. Sula mina gonju holdo we gon you tau zikaka sum na ping m Little Kanasam go, don dag. Yan, ho jung yi sang manga goosi, yi Ma di bang langa se satung so go. Lidi pin hole, wong doji ordena, with tang jogodi, ba zhong zeng maygao ziguusi, jup, cugusi go hei yun go uhbanyan, hai kingoti m ye to gum yad, yin ho song si injia kosanyi with him nim. Yi first sea zo di gai chogas he sat, ye jung jose hong yet tau chik Tai Yan Ho Yong yi si hogumko like yula, who do so an do yang my ziga gas I gai shall hai go go penguan soi peng. Yle yung hikum yong leng regular, high tongyo sang kiny ya. Bolonai jun yiking gay another sandwula to ho yong ye will go good si got xi gay haio hang song gum da by si chang. Dani gajogason vajai, the son si chang. Cho dangle Thwai Swin sat qui bay. Jan leto y swinsat ge come so hai taigo wokduke. Don't do the hoyong ye with chanson who doin' si go fong him choi bay. Chewale huda ne with high cho ye doin' keg quai soon ziler se changa he to gong j fong. Come on, so sido chan come ingo dim yang do lit some nation Tayat How Cholem Dilangle kin yi dagale, siusum di godi gong kutai hole uhi t di gong jagum. Peng yongle moem poga langai die pun yan ho hanyao mo gog that leti yalanger. The negon chi yao tengo si chmotta bow chao, to yin chokao. The some dim tie mo dunke qua shoon tie di fanyang. No sang down fong him, t wok the bow chau get why yet to gang. Gangile, my jung tim fong tauzi hani ch me chokte in tauzi hand yi ketchung yip zet my thoozi and y chun zona, hai yim jongele chong. So in a gohong go yib hollong you do changfong, die taozi hand ho y himjonga. Tauzi jet him on dile hemong tho jun lutla so jokfiler, tama yongam, chon hollang jo silfa, yina y nita, gubio yang yibun, gilap chong. Tati joni di fai young jo di father, sinoi bon doge jan jo to yek. Come chila, did guman, bajel tao zigin yi wong the yao sin ha lung jo critan yle yek yi myha wo la yek. Gubio yang yip yun, tongsan he monle, habu, todi gavega, come comhoi chandlis out to fight my young gumno, tong sila gula a habu, come I could ne fight tao go get chill yang gigum. Come in zil tauti chan yip ja sec young yes I guy. Sanbu wong wong joy day chang toy joy go. Ho jolle, tauti chan yiping my chun bodegumga, like ya, he sing fung jab to in toi don't get so gong gegum goi gap. So in elephant sango chio jingo si jung bega hop leggers in ja, ta punyanak is a whole and si hung a poitsi, yet sang lam good, yen chile, ne se fung jab to j so far gigum hoiwa hai chongto sanbu, tai gum jug or gandan be lega tao zigong. Com little by jizo yengum tau tsi po ja go hong zong dio tiksido yi leng yi ling dia zizo yangum di goupilga tizan ying tum chidon yeng gigum the quai more sang dong. Jolle, when a gongha, tau chi chan yikaling of fanzi, tet tau chi se sun, he galigo season bao zaga yin doye. Kok zung tao chi fan zik my, zhao gaido hai tho gomo to hai, tai pin dis into their bong ja saying, choigin muita kiss at di soil min punsun ya sadi, could dunyum chang gunhoy cup and dog zet my gong go yi get yao yan tai choi. Tyung jingko di sun maka. Gangamer, yes se means um tho at the tau ti for changer, then y jun lana, gum gum tesogoner, you le lang like a chong jo lengsin si changer, the ingan tau tig a chin, yi muga mway time sokala, or muyana, chan galler, bidilijana, bodi nyaga. Com quang y tau tizon gongfu base mangy. Heli lingwek, sendang to ching, zygo di tang yi fai young, y my tau zigin ye. Hediga se con hang hega yin jala, taikato he facebookla, e gina, cham jali, tau tizon, dali se con y son, gib ban tum so go. So li se con bui tai, tho si a gun, long fai si gang sut, git lunji, siu tang, siu tai jangula. Gong yunes say the Com to manager gongha di me tau zile. You ho chi tau chi so ne chi dole, lei cheng, si toyang mok bule so yu keto chi chanzin or to do yole, com si jong ging yla yung yi haga bo ja kaywa. Da yat gai sunelin no mean tan fan sang faiong, jwa, liwai chi yatlin, yes sang sang wood, so so yug chong fi yong, ketchong wo, haketosin. In jale, ch me ketchu legaso ji, sengyi sumpoi, jale so ylo tic to get toyogama. Com gai sing yo so yu ge lina le sinal zik to liogamala, come toi haga do no gong get chan poitia guan. Yan san chung ying or yan chile, so mingaiwakle, liu chun hollang bowsao, lim mo to may like a bow chao, goto gun. Tom the chit nj toyo kaywa tia, liter y taugo, ti chan poitsi her kin la tau tito, her tassang mo bilt, the yung yiha bojha. The yat chun bedi fate tao ziy chan. Mai sogti chan and tao zia. Tum si yongin yile lim mo lo mli wo yung dog tan, her sang down fong him. So hole bola lo yi so and sung with hoi seal, so I kup yong gum, yi beba si di soi, ta yila chi then fong him ti chan to my nonsin tanya bay like. Chin tao taigu leon jung uhna to my kuula, chiha hai paso yung chana, gobi so y go fong him, go bo shan, tzai gun, tesong do one then nonsoon, le can go t sang do fong him sensauto, hui puti li lunghong tan kebai chong. The sam chit deng fan santo hoing or bayai. Sijong kinila jun hoing tauzi, tago gamung the fan sana ho gong tai fong him, little so you like then ta hoing tau zi a yang go sim tai tauzi kabela, si chongagala cho sito binfar, then zile, lebi so yu tenkei, cho peng hang, jung zongti san, like the bay lightla, he guak lo tong guang bailer, why chau chi tang builai j me. Complete her gan puibana, su mina, do you tau di top a chit gala, cui gongetong yu ta tange ma zong pyamekala, hamekotong langa, but tama ying go yuga swe chan yi bla you, but tong chan, but the guai gum so whom changemus. High face of site. So, tagale, hoi wanni bonsutai, you libundu king swe, com choti can dula, tho tho hopke, fop stole, to my ting ko sanju jong yu. Jung yuaji wonder go hoi chi joke, chung fong on. Tsuhang to you go gum tago gang yi ho jotola. Sa go lana, tolan fong himbo chao ma chichangim. Gangila, gonjo, lexi, gai sha home would get you ginbo yang. You know, some lena tai le yang se do yan zeng the tau ziga yang hung. Cho lai chany chang me gai secle dim tauzi hai kos sick young y tanyi. Si tai sil tang j monchu. Chal difanj ja hoy cho jokatao ti chatler, yi bo sil and dimner, ch tai gun nimeto yan zingona, cho me chamina, tai suang don sai lega fong zum. J likeondo e tfasyola, co gingye, ta gasella, yohan gardan. He be me hoi boon to my so wing a sums of fangjung zillo chun hung my. You may be mina loy logun go gas go dye. Tomaio sila windo to some fanjung du yako uhung yi gumsang much hang so hong with whom yi my y my shot like a side keto pea may go. Joy m don ma make okay, yana two don't somehow, catch the her gong yan. Um gong coco one fa dimer, so her mean good nimla disorder with a bose all my kiddo se dog. Dana hold a good nimda young say to him, tell you my use I both a lot. Yellow, you don't sang gong lo to dive. It's a walla gonjana di but you lay hoy wood lock hoys in a so can you die maya parfait that the gong, tally monga gong, so then you die mositina Don go sick, where some vanjong it while gong guy upon how su ear.