你以為只是小事？其實真正引爆大風險的，往往就是那些被忽略的細節｜《一如既往》

關於金錢、歷史與人性不變的23件事

　　全球暢銷書《致富心態》作者全新力作
　　迎接難以預測的未來與種種人生挑戰最有效的新工具

　　綠角、雷浩斯、陳鳳馨、財女Jenny 好評推薦
　　☆ Amazon 4.5星好評
　　☆ 出版即登紐約時報暢銷榜
　　☆ 誠品、博客來、金石堂一致推薦選書

　　人們在設立投資計畫時，都講求精確的數據、對未來的預測，以及合乎常理的邏輯。但是，我們很常看到的狀況是：結果不如預期、受到情緒影響而更動計畫、預測完全失準，或是被突如其來的事件給打擊。

　　本書作者摩根‧豪瑟指出，與其拚命預測不確定的事件，我們應該花更多時間去理解恆常的行為。不論是投資或人生，都應該反其道而行：回頭看，而且視野要廣闊，並且專注在不曾改變的事物。

　　本書延續前作，作者以各式各樣極具說服力的案例，交織絕佳的故事編排手法，用最平實的敘述，帶讀者了解關於風險、機會、數據、誘因、情緒與人性的真實面。你可以從中學到：

　　＊要根據人的行為方式做預測，而不是根據特定事件做預測。
　　＊想要活得幸福快樂，管理期望非常重要。
　　＊股價是今天的數字乘以明天的故事。
　　＊無法測量與預測的事，在商業與投資領域是最強大的力量。
　　＊要知道股價高點在哪裡，唯一的辦法就是讓市場漲過頭。
　　＊最好的財務規畫是像悲觀主義者一樣儲蓄，並且像樂觀主義者一樣投資。
　　＊一項完美的能力，是以犧牲另一項攸關存亡的能力為代價。

　　每個人都想看到未來的商業、經濟、政治到社會趨勢，但我們都不擅於預測未來發生的事情，唯有當你不再執著於預測未知，專注在恆久不變的事，才能在人生與投資路上獲得最大的滿足與成就。
 
　　綠角、雷浩斯、陳鳳馨、財女Jenny 好評推薦
　　☆ Amazon 4.5星好評
　　☆ 出版即登紐約時報暢銷榜
　　☆ 誠品、博客來、金石堂一致推薦選書

各界推薦

　　許多人不斷追逐層出不窮的新現象，卻沒看懂其背後的道理，只能不停的摸索前進。《一如既往》讓你看懂花花萬象的基本原理，以穩定的心性，面對人生的各種挑戰。。──綠角，財經作家

　　《一如既往》這本書中，告訴我們投資世界中的變與不變。即使世界不斷改變，但恆久的原則仍然不變。──雷浩斯，價值投資者／財經作家

　　想要理解這個變動的世界嗎？就從恆常不變的事物開始。這項令人讚嘆的結論，來自摩根‧豪瑟這本引人入勝、實用而逸趣橫生的著作。──亞瑟‧布魯克斯（Arthur C. Brooks）哈佛甘迺迪學院與哈佛商學院教授、《紐約時報》暢銷冠軍書作者

　　摩根‧豪瑟再次完成一本精采著作。本書充滿智慧與風趣。關於金錢、生活、故事的力量、抱負與滿足感，豪瑟巧妙的挑選完美而難忘的故事，鮮明刻畫出一個個歷久彌新的課題。這本精簡的小書容納了一整座圖書館的智慧。──德瑞克‧湯普森（Derek Thompson）《大西洋月刊》（The Atlantic）

　　本書鞭辟入裡而發人深省，拿起來一讀就幾乎無法放下，而且內容都相當重要。豪瑟解釋，我們的命運多半取決於隨機、看似懸於一線的事物，然而，其中也有歷經好幾個世紀也不曾改變的普世真理。豪瑟為我們指出如何找到那些真理。──貝瑟妮‧麥克林恩（Bethany McLean）暢銷書作家

　　來自一位說故事高手的真知灼見，深具扭轉生活的力量。──萊恩‧霍利得（Ryan Holiday）《駕馭沉靜》、《滾動內容複利》作者

　　想要把歷史的後見之明轉化為現時的先見之明，本書是必讀之作。──夏恩‧派瑞許（Shane Parrish）Farnam Street創辦人、《思考的框架》作者

　　你愈快理解本書中的觀念，就能愈快展開更富有、更豐盛的生活。──史考特‧蓋洛威（Scott Galloway）紐約大學史登商學院行銷學教授，《世界並不仁慈，但也不會虧待你》、《四騎士主宰的未來》作者


 
作者介紹
作者簡介

摩根．豪瑟

　　協和基金（The Collaborative Fund）合夥人；兩次贏得美國商業編輯與記者協會（Society of American Business Editors and Writers）頒發的最佳商業獎（Best in Business Award），曾獲《紐約時報》希尼獎（New York Times Sidney Award），並兩度入圍杰洛德‧羅布傑出商業寫作與財經新聞獎（Gerald Loeb Award for Distinguished Business Writing and Financial Journalism）。和妻子與兩個孩子現居美國西雅圖。

譯者簡介

周宜芳

　　臺灣大學國際企業學系畢業，後負笈劍橋大學經濟學研究所。曾任職於金融業、出版業，現為自由譯者，作品目前累計四十餘種。


目錄
各界推薦
前言 生活小法則

 1 千鈞一髮
 2 風險就是你沒預料到的事
 3 期望與現實
 4 瘋狂的心智
 5 瘋狂的數字
 6 贏在好故事
 7 無法運算的事物
 8 平靜會播下瘋狂的種子
 9 太多、太急、太快
10 當魔法出現時
11 一夕的悲劇與長遠的奇蹟
12 微小而重要
13 狂喜與絕望
14 完美之下，必有損傷
15 本來就很困難
16 不斷奔跑
17 未來的奇蹟
18 比看起來更困難，不像看起來那麼有趣
19 誘因：全世界最強大的力量
20 現在才明白
21 長期思維
22 過度努力
23 傷口會癒合，疤痕會一直在

自我提問清單
致謝
注釋

Transcript

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