靠直覺遲早輸死？《思考的框架》教你用「機率」戒掉感覺，神準做決定！

每天都有新的問題冒出來，陷入被時間追趕的惡性循環？
明明處理過類似問題，卻重複一樣的錯誤，為什麼就是看不見自己的盲點？
面對沒有標準答案、專業知識也派不上用場的情境，如何做出最佳決策？

思考的廣度與深度，與是不是天才無關，每個人都可以透過鍛鍊不斷升級。
關鍵就在掌握各領域中「不會輕易改變、不會過時淘汰」的基本模型！
學會活用思維模型拆解問題，把問題放進框架中思考，
我們就能有效率地做出最佳選擇、有系統地累積成功經驗，不用每次碰到新問題都要從頭開始。

作者夏恩‧派瑞許（Shane Parrish）創辦了全球成長最快學習型部落格之一Farnam Street，他曾是頂尖情報機構的資安專家，必須在高度不確定、賭注很高的情況下做決策，而學校所學並不足以應付現實中的複雜問題，為了提升決策品質，他開始廣泛涉獵跨領域知識，並將學習記錄在Farnam Street部落格，短時間內就聚集眾多粉絲，更驚人的是，訂閱者有八成都來自華爾街。不只風靡投資圈，Farnam Street提供的學習工具也在矽谷新創界與職業運動員社群掀起熱烈討論，其中最受歡迎的就是思維模型。

本書以淺顯的文字搭配實際案例，介紹九種最實用的思維模型。這些思維模型就像看世界的濾鏡，讓我們避開盲點誤區，看清事物表層底下的脈絡與連結，提升對問題的解讀力與決策成功率。書中的思維模型包含來自經濟學、心理學、哲學、物理學、生物學等各領域的重要核心概念，幫助我們釐清問題、看見不同面向的觀點、找到新的突破口、以創新方式解決問題。


在腦中建立一支思維模型的全明星隊，面對各種類型的難題，都找得到最適合的解法：

➢「地圖不等於疆界」：沒有依據現實情況更新自己的認知，我們就容易掉入認知陷阱，或淪為紙上談兵。「腳踏實地」、與現實保持連結，才能做出最符合當下情況的正確判斷。

➢「能力圈」：在自己的能力圈內，我們都是解決問題高手。但所有人都會碰到超出能力圈的問題，學習維持與拓展能力圈、在能力圈之外運作，才能大幅提高成功率。

➢「第一原理思考」：不會拆解問題，我們就只能重複「別人怎麼說」的成規慣例，缺乏應變與創新的能力。找到最基本的第一原理，就能掌握問題核心，推翻錯誤假設、開創新路徑。

➢「奧坎剃刀」：面對麻煩，還沒開始思考就先被焦慮壓垮？我們都傾向把問題複雜化，但最簡單的解釋往往是對的，可以幫我們減輕不必要的壓力與節省許多時間。

➢「反演法」：有些問題無法從正面突破，學會以終為始的思考，與其想如何賺大錢，不如思考如何把損失降到最低，逆向工程可以幫助我們做到比預期更佳的結果。


讀者熱烈迴響
「我到處向人推薦這本書。」──WordPress共同創辦人穆倫維格（Matt Mullenweg）
「給愛思考的人的經典佳作。」
「這本書對決策者很有用，特別是要在『沒有標準答案』的情境下做出困難決定。」
「不用再從頭開始畫輪子，這本書清楚呈現前人的智慧，馬上就能實踐，幫助你成功。」
「我從來不知道思維模型可以這麼有趣，完全不是無聊的心理學術語，非常好讀、好懂。」
「如果你喜歡《窮查理的普通常識》，也會愛這本書。學習各領域的知識精華，幫助你翻新視角，以有趣的方式解決問題。」
「應該納入高中與大學生指定讀物。如果你喜歡學習，想學得更快、而且不會邊學邊忘，就讀這本書。」
「我開始練習以模型來思考，幫助很大。」
「提升學習效率與決策力的聖經。」
「以優美、易吸收的方式呈現了跨領域的重要基本知識。」
「我會送給平時沒在讀這類思考書的親朋好友，相信他們會跟我一樣，一開始看就停不下來。」
產品目錄
作者序　如何做出好決策
前言　打開思考工具箱
01 地圖不等於疆界：與真實世界進行比對
02 能力圈：你「不知道」什麼？
03 第一原理思考：回歸基本
04 假想實驗：如果……會如何？
05 二階思考：那接下來呢？
06 機率思考：被閃電打到的機率？
07 反演法：改變視角
08 奧坎剃刀：簡單至上
09 漢隆剃刀：不要預設最糟情況
謝辭
照片來源
參考資料

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:58

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