Julia Meigh: Macro, Mayhem & (Prediction) Markets

In this episode of Selling Signals, we’re joined by Julia Meigh, who has spent years helping investors decide what data to buy, with a particular focus on macro and ESG. Few people have had a closer view of how macro investors think about new datasets or how providers break into the market generally. 

We discuss what macro funds actually need from data and where vendors still have room to win. Julia also shares her view on geopolitical uncertainty and on prediction markets, both of which are playing a bigger role in macro investing.

This episode is essential listening for anyone building data products for macro investors or trying to understand where that market is heading.

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:02

Welcome to Telling Technology, the podcast focused on how businesses actually monetize and sell data.

SPEAKER_02 0:07

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SPEAKER_02 0:22

Today we're joined by Julia and me, who have spent nearly a decade advising investors on what data to buy, with a particular focus on macro and ESG. What's interesting about Julia is she's been right in the middle of this. Not just evaluating data, but helping shape the market. A lot of the data providers people will be well aware of in the market today were brought to the ecosystem by conversations with Julia. So this should be a really good one to unpack how the market's evolved, what investors actually care about, and where macro data is heading. Julia, welcome to the podcast.

SPEAKER_00 0:51

Thanks very much for having me. That was an extremely generous uh introduction, so I hope I live up to the hype.

SPEAKER_02 0:58

It can't be generous because I've worked with you for many years, and I uh I won't name the names, but we're well aware of uh of some of them. So um if anything, I actually have a very good vantage point.

SPEAKER_00 1:08

Yes, that's true.

SPEAKER_02 1:10

Why don't we jump in then? So uh your background is in macro, and I think that's quite a topical conversation right now. So why don't we start with what is macro investing and and how do macro funds actually make money?

SPEAKER_00 1:24

Yeah, so um very broadly it's an investment strategy that focuses on um economic trends and global events uh to predict uh market moves across different asset classes. So this includes uh trading in currencies, commodities, uh rates, credit, um, and equity uh indices as well. So uh sort of understanding the uh economic and political environment is what kind of guides uh decisions around uh asset allocation across uh different markets and regions. So that would be a very sort of uh quick, simple uh definition to that.

SPEAKER_02 2:01

And I think many listeners and I will be quite familiar with uh like the metrics equity investors most often focus on, like share price, earnings, volatility. But what is there an equivalent type for macro investors um that sort of yeah, it explains that in a similar way?

SPEAKER_00 2:19

Yeah, so um I guess because uh macro investors are essentially looking and tracking different KPIs, such as uh economic performance and global events. So um that would be the metrics that they would uh most pay attention to. So there's probably about 10 to 15 uh headline economic indicators that are critical. So the top ones would be things like um inflation, unemployment, uh, consumer spend, um, and GDP as well. So uh those are the metrics that uh central banks uh pay particular attention to when uh setting the interest rate. And then there's um loads of others like exchange rates, uh government debt levels, commodity prices, trade balance, etc., um, and tracking geopolitical events is really important as well, uh, particularly now because it seems like it changes every minute or with every passing tweet. So uh they've become more critical than ever.

SPEAKER_01 3:18

Um Eric mentioned um that that listeners will be more familiar with the equity markets. And I think one of the nice things about the equity markets is that you have things like you know, last um last trade price for a for a share. You've got you know the audit book, bid R spread. Um, and so to the degree possible, share prices are not necessarily constructed or or um and so there's less ambiguity around that. We recorded um we also recorded uh an episode with uh Flo Broderick from General Index, and she was saying that one of the reasons that they exist is that uh in commodities markets there's uh more of a reported element to Matt than to that. There's obviously still trading going on, but it it's kind of less um less clear uh what the actual correct number is for a benchmark, etc. It it sounds like in in the macro space you you're almost even further down into the kind of constructed territory, like what is the correct value for GDP? That's actually maybe it people don't know just how controversial that can get. Is that true across all macro um macro metrics?

SPEAKER_00 4:26

Um I don't want to say pretty much, but most of them, yes. You've actually touched upon something extremely topical because this is something that a lot of people have been sort of discussing in the past year about how accurate um economic, uh official economic figures are. Um so there's I think it there's been a lot of uh I guess a tension around this issue, particularly when the US government shut down and they kind of stopped publishing statistics. So they were really in the spotlight. So um things like declining uh survey rates that um people um are just not responding to, uh, that has really played into the credibility of economic statistics. Um issues with like lag as well, like um they're collecting this data for like the previous quarter, and then things like uh house price data for inflation, that's like the year before. So you're really getting an economic picture of the past, you're getting less people responding to the surveys. Uh so yeah, it's a very uh topical issue right now uh in terms of like the accuracy and credibility of economic statistics.

SPEAKER_02 5:40

You touched on a bit there, but it I think from our previous conversations, it seems like organizations like the Fed are starting to involve more alternative type data um to start forecasting or uh have a more accurate picture of what's going on in the world. Is is there anything of interest going on there?

SPEAKER_00 5:58

Yeah, actually. So um yeah, the Fed have actually been more uh honest or more open about uh what um alternative data sets they actually uh use um to sort of help guide their decisions around uh monetary policy. So um the last few months, um Jerome Powers mentioned a few uh alternative data sets that the Fed use for things like inflation um and unemployment. Um and they've actually been using alternative data sets um like since the pandemic. So during the pandemic, um the there was a lot of rapid changes in the economy and official figures kind of uh weren't timely enough to uh sort of guide uh decisions around monetary policy. So that's when the Fed uh started uh using different alternative data sets. Um and they've sort of just continued down that road. But they haven't been so open about it um up until the government shutdown, where um there was a lot of press about oh, the Fed is flying blind, like without the official economic figures. So they had to come out and be like, actually, no, we've got some data, don't worry about it. Um so and they had to kind of almost announce it at that time, otherwise there'd be a lot more um sort of uh instability or sort of turbulence around um in the market. So so yeah, I did actually um about two years ago, over two years ago, I actually had a feeling that the Fed might be looking at alternative data sets. Um, because there was um a time where uh they didn't change interest rates for ages, and all of a sudden um Jezi Pell just decided to cut it by uh 50 basis points, which seems like pretty extreme for him. Um so then I was like, oh, we must be looking at other figures as well as the official figures to make that kind of um such an extreme decision. Um so yeah, it was kind of recently that they um started discussing what alternative data sets they use. So um I think that's quite interesting.

SPEAKER_02 8:07

And why do you think that they were being, I guess, initially so secretive about it? It's not like they're a quantitative hedge fund that are trying to hide their edge or are they no, so yeah, that's a great question.

SPEAKER_00 8:19

And I don't want to put the Fed on blast uh here, but um it might be. Um so if they were more trap like uh open about it beforehand, uh that would cause some sort of market jitters and instability. Um, because they'll essentially be saying, actually, official figures aren't very good. So we have to use alternative data sets as well. So that would kind of cause a bit of uh fragility.

SPEAKER_02 8:46

And has the fact that alternative data has become a little bit more mainstream across many industries, actually, that it's maybe more palatable to discuss that more openly?

SPEAKER_00 8:57

Um I don't think I think the reason why it went mainstream was uh more mainstream was because um the Fed and uh lots of other institutions started using alternative data um when there was the government, the US government shutdown. So I think that was the uh main reason uh for it.

SPEAKER_02 9:18

Understood. If we I guess take this to thinking about macro investors and their use of data or alternative data, where is that today? It seems like um they may be lagging a little bit behind equity investors, but uh is that a fair assumption? Where are they in terms of their alternative data usage?

SPEAKER_00 9:38

Yeah, good question. So over time, I guess since the since we've been in a cli uh kind of more volatile economic climate, um they have been using or like adopting uh more sort of uh macro strategies or uh expanding their macro uh trading capabilities. Um there's obviously uh some large established macro funds out there that uh that aren't noobs at this. They they kind of know the space. Um but yeah, more and more hedge funds are sort of uh moving into the space, uh adopting things like uh event-driven strategies and CTAs. Um so they're less um, I guess they're not so widely adopted on alternative macro data. Um so they're sort of just getting to know the space, I think.

SPEAKER_02 10:30

Sorry, what's a CTA?

SPEAKER_00 10:32

Oh, it's uh commodity trading. It's it's commodity trading.

SPEAKER_01 10:36

Uh okay. Makes sense. And it's sorry, is that one of the main ways that they're getting exposure um to, or or shall I say, they're yeah, they're exposing themselves to macro factors through commodities. Presumably equities is another way, but possibly harder than than commodities?

SPEAKER_00 10:54

Um, I don't know if the word harder is correct. It's more so there's been a lot of opportunities for commodities given the sort of geopolitical turbulence. So, like right now with the war in Iran and the uh you know problems with oil supply, that has created a more uh volatile oil price, which creates more opportunities for arbitrage. Um so uh it's more so that there's more opportunities for oil trading than like less opportunities and equities. There's still opportunities and equities in terms of like trading uh equity indices. Um so doing kind of a global comparison is um where the advantage is there.

SPEAKER_01 11:37

So it's it's less, let's say, somebody's forecasting, they've got their internal forecast for inflation going up or down. It's not necessarily they're going into like individual equity models and adjusting those at scale to figure out um how individual companies are exposed. It's more looking at like big buckets of stocks and how they might be exposed to certain macro factors.

SPEAKER_00 11:59

Yes, exactly. Um so they would be interested um in a large universe of equities. So yeah, they're not really interested in the stock level.

SPEAKER_02 12:10

And is that even at a geography level, they uh they're wanting it internationally or more of a global coverage? Or does it is does it can it just be US coverage?

SPEAKER_00 12:19

Um yes, global coverage, um there's an advantage there because you have to sort of um make decisions on you know regional asset allocation. Uh so there's definitely an advantage with uh global coverage. But there is value in um you know regional data sets. Um so when you sort of pair that with global data sets, there's benefits there. Um and then major markets like Europe and particularly the US, uh the US in particular, because um they are kind of um things like the dollar is the dominant currency. Um so and oil and um is priced in dollars as well. So um if you get um, you know, changing oil prices um increases or decreases the demand for the dollar, and that impacts Forex market, and everything is connected to that. So um yeah, that would be um one way to look at it, I think.

SPEAKER_01 13:17

What sort of alternative data sets do you see doing particularly well in the macro markets? I mean, it may even make sense to start with. You mentioned that the Fed's being more open about the type of data sets they're using. What are those? And and is it the case that funds are kind of going, well, let's just start with those and then expand to try and potentially get a better read than the Fed have? Um yeah, that would be really interesting to understand.

SPEAKER_00 13:41

Yeah, that's a great question. Um, and it's it's very, very complex in the sense where um everyone is still trading on the official figures. And um getting a better read on inflation than the Fed, I mean, it's they're the ones that set the interest rate, and the interest rate is what impacts different the price of different asset classes. So um you kind of want to be more so in line with the Fed. So knowing what data sets they use is uh to make those decisions is extremely uh beneficial. So um I think it was like in the October minutes, um Jerome Pallad mentioned uh using ADP data for employment, um, also um indeed jobs data as well. Um and for inflation, like price stats. Um he didn't mention any consumer spending data sets, but he said um they um look at many, many different sources. So those would be sort of the good ones to start to. I actually spend uh a lot of my days now uh just like scrolling through central bank minutes to see which uh alternative data sets they mention.

SPEAKER_02 14:52

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't remember Indeed being that active in the market. Is that Jerome Powell admitting that he's scraping?

SPEAKER_00 15:00

Well, it's actually um I'm not sure if he's admitting to scraping. He might be getting it from somewhere else, but um they do actually uh put Indeed's job postings data on uh, I think the Fed site, but also the uh regional central banks. I think it's either the Chicago Fed or the uh St. Louis Fed um actually publish Indeed data along with ADP data and lots of other different um alternative data sets. So um it is actually there on their sites.

SPEAKER_02 15:35

So I mean it sounds like it's very much job postings compensation type data that's driving, or at least it's being publicly disclosed. But if you think about maybe the four horsemen of alternative data being transactional data, credit uh transaction data, uh clickstream, location, an app, are they uh sort of relevant for macro in in any way?

SPEAKER_00 16:00

Yes, extremely relevant. So the transactional data that's extremely relevant for things like consumer spend and retail spend. Um so there's been um some vendors in that space that actually, when all the macro volatility began, they uh started developing macro products. But what they found was um the uptake of those macro products they built didn't do as well as um, you know, just selling their core product to people interested in getting macro signals because um everyone else was better at building those macro signals. Um so there's a lot of uh, I guess, adjustments you have to do to alternative data to make it um fit macro use cases. So things like seasonally adjusting the data. So that would be um, you know, annual patterns in um different shifts. So in the summer, um there's different spending, there's holidays as well. That differs across regions. So, like in China, they have um, you know, they don't have Christmas, they have uh Chinese New Year, so spending goes up there. And then Australia, they also um have different uh summer and winter months as well. So there's a lot of uh difficulties or uh challenges, if you will, in uh sort of um making alternative data uh produce a good macro signal. So yeah, um to answer your question, sorry, that was a bit of a tangent. Yes, transactional is extremely useful. Um locate geolocation data like footfall activity, that was actually really useful during the pandemic for things like uh tracking footfall as a signal of the economy um you know opening up and a turning point on the upside. Um and then uh clickstream and like web data. Yeah. Um so with like web activity, um looking at um, I guess uh uh applications for the dole. Um that would be a really good indicator, or has been a good indicator, or is used um as a uh sort of signal for employment figures as well. So that gets baked into um some figures. So the Chicago Fed actually have a employment index where um they look at things like job search records and um applications for um, you know, employment benefits, um which they sort of um is part of their um index for employment.

SPEAKER_02 18:32

That's interesting, never thought of it like that way. Moving on then maybe to to the war uh and the many wars that have taken place in in the last, I don't know, 18 months. Um the the uh it feels like uh alternative data or even it feels like that's much like COVID is meaning that uh both equity and macro investors are having to think about how they can acquire alternative data to kind of explain what's going on, especially in the US, which can be quite unpredictable at the moment. Um how are funds managing that sort of geopolitical uncertainty?

SPEAKER_00 19:10

Yeah, good question. Um so in some better than others. Um and uh yeah, there's various alternative uh data sets that are being used here. So um you could do an entire different um episode on it. But like I guess um like top line, there's the obvious ones are things like geopolitical risk and uh real-time events tracking. Um so that maps like conflicts and political violence to uh specific locations with um using like an NLP analysis of uh news and social media. Um and I've seen a lot more attention about uh uh GDEL data, and that stands for the global database of events, language, and tone. And they're actually an open source database that geocodes uh different sort of um political events. Um, so they're quite useful in that regard. Um, I've seen a lot more interest in SASIT data. So some vendors that I've spoken to in this space, they um have seen a lot more interest from uh hedge funds that are using it for things like uh tracking the movement of troops and oil production and storage and infrastructure damage as well. And then there's um AIS data, and that's uh the signal that's broadcast uh from a ship, so you know where the ship's position is. And they've always been of interest for like vessel tracking, but perhaps it's particularly uh useful now for tracking things like uh shipping activity um around the Middle East. Um I've seen an uptick in aviation data as well, and that's gotten a bit more attention of late. So things like uh tracking military um charter and charter flight patterns, um, changes in commercial routes or just general um overflight bans. Um, and there's been a lot more um interest in like sentiment from prediction markets, and that's kind of all the rage now. So integrating market sentiment from these sites, they can be really useful for predicting uh the uh impact of an event on different asset um prices. Um yeah, I could go on. There's like probably 15 different other categories, but I'll probably just leave it there and stop rambling.

SPEAKER_02 21:26

No, before we go into prediction markets, um I think it would be good to expose a little bit more. So I mean, you've been in this world a lot longer than I, but when I initially joined uh New Data many, many years ago, um satellite data, uh, those data types were were quite high demand. Is this just a natural cycle of macro sort of making data sites more relevant? A little bit more like when presidential elections come in and nominations, etcetera, and polling data every couple of years becomes again Is that the same or is it we're just in a very unique situation with wars that mean that those data set types are becoming relevant again?

SPEAKER_00 22:09

Yeah, good question. Um I don't have a I would say yes, like the wars have made it more um I guess relevant, like to satellite data and things. But for I guess generally, like we've been in a volatile economic climate, like since COVID, and then um there were supply chain disruptions, and then uh Trump's presidency can be a bit unpredictable sometimes. Um so that's what's driven these factors, have sort of driven a more uh volatile environment. Um so I suppose I don't want to say definitively like, yeah, this will be in a volatile environment, uh, especially since like um until Trump. Um, because you never know what's gonna sort of happen in the future. Um, I think people expected things to sort of stabilize after COVID, um, but they sort of continue to be in a volatile economic environment. So I think we are here for the foreseeable future. Um but yeah, there's been a lot of uh data vendors that have um created um like pretty decent and good um macro uh trading products that sort of um look at things like um how the macro environment um impacts equities. So there's a company called uh Quant Insight, and they've um I guess they've they were the ones started uh calling this strategy uh macro equities, and they actually have built a factor model uh for it. So I think it's always something that can be built into um, you know, different models, equities models, etc. Um, it's just become a lot more relevant these days.

SPEAKER_02 24:01

Yeah, it does feel like more equity investors are thinking about uh a top-down approach.

SPEAKER_01 24:05

Yes, exactly. And it is as simple as saying um when volatility is high, the opportunity to make money is significant, and therefore you see a shift out of maybe more traditional uh approaches to investing into a very keen focus on these macro factors.

SPEAKER_00 24:25

You mean when the that's really hard to say, actually. Um but yes, generally it does seem like there's more opportunities for arbitrage and um etc. when things are more volatile. Um so yes, but things always change. So like relationship breakdowns like happen like all the time. So like one example in the macro space for this is like um a thing called a fillet's curve, which like um is the relationship between unemployment and inflation, which is always inverse. But then in the UK a few years ago, actually, I think it was about nine years ago now, that kind of broke down in in the UK. So these things are changing all the time. I'd say that's like not a very good answer. Um, but I'm I don't want to say definitively yes, because there's always different um, I guess, uh caveats and nuances going on.

SPEAKER_02 25:21

We've spoken a lot about volatility and arbitrage. Um are we talking sort of purely quantitative use cases here and uh or strategies? Is that is this sort of need for uh information at speed the same on a fundamental strategy?

SPEAKER_00 25:40

Um it yeah, it's applicable to both. Um I don't really know the answers to um more so like the differences in terms of fundamental and quantitative. So obviously quantitative that they use a lot more data in a more systematic way. Um and hedge fund performance there has been um like pretty strong um in the last few years compared to other types of hedge funds. Um so yes, there's just like more data use on the systematic side, which is not something new or surprising.

SPEAKER_02 26:13

So I mean there are some more unconventional signals being discussed. And I think you told me this many, many years ago, maybe a couple of years ago, about the Pentagon Pizza Index. Oh, yeah. Um is that maybe can you define what that is? And is that really used in an institutional uh place of work?

SPEAKER_00 26:31

Yeah, good question. Um so yeah, when I referenced it, um it was actually I referenced it as a joke. So the Pentagon Pizza Index, they track orders around uh pizza orders around the Pentagon. So if there's like a spike in activity during late hours, that's kind of a uh sign that the Pentagon are working late and they're busy planning. So it's like a precursor of a geopolitical event. Um, so I I just used to make a joke about it, but I had noticed that they um it did spike by a lot, like I think by like 400% before Venezuela. There was a couple of other events that um it was right in predicting as well. And I actually spoke to uh some geopolitical risk firms that actually like use the index seriously. Um so I don't know if like hedge funds are actually using it as a serious indicator. Um, but I did think that was interesting that um, you know, I joked about it, but then it was being used. Um I did actually see recently uh like a spokesperson from the Pentagon that like acknowledged the index and they were asked for comment on the index. And they were actually like, oh yeah, maybe we'll just like spike it on purpose randomly to throw you guys off. So now that they've said that, like I don't know if you it if it can really be uh used as anything serious. But yeah, it's um very novel example, I suppose.

SPEAKER_02 27:57

I must say, if I was about to go into a war room to have some really difficult discussions and make some really difficult decisions, the last thing I want to overeat on is pizza, because I'd be falling asleep after.

SPEAKER_00 28:06

Yeah. I don't know. What else would you what would you order then? What for the bigger?

SPEAKER_02 28:13

A sushi bowl would keep me alert. Yeah, have a bowl of sushi and go to war. That would be your your purpose. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Um prediction markets. You mentioned them earlier. Um they've gained a lot of attention recently. Uh maybe for to start, what what are they in simple terms?

SPEAKER_00 28:34

Yeah, so in simple terms, they are uh exchange platforms where anyone can trade contracts based on the outcome of future events. So they actually allow people to uh bet on the likelihood of an event occurring, um, and that's for sort of financial rewards. So they cover different domains like uh sports, global events, um, outcomes of elections, and uh economic predictions as well.

SPEAKER_02 28:59

And they're not regulated, are they?

SPEAKER_00 29:02

Um no, not at the moment that I know of, unless there's been a big announcement. So with things like um the sort of um regulations, developments and regulations and other kinds of compliance risks like inside of trading risks, I'm not so well versed on the subject, you'll have to ask. There's a company called Glacier Network, and that's run by like a Dan or is it Dawn?

SPEAKER_02 29:28

I think it's Dawn, I think isn't it?

SPEAKER_00 29:30

Yeah, no, I'm uh totally joking. I know Don will listen to this and I live to wind him up. But um, yeah, he'll he knows all about this stuff, so you can definitely uh about it.

SPEAKER_02 29:40

We yeah, we should get him on. I'll uh we'll ping him after.

SPEAKER_00 29:43

Um you're welcome, Don.

SPEAKER_02 29:46

Um, reason why it would have been an interesting topic to discuss is talking about other data points around things like inflation, employment, um and other sort of market consensus. It even in polling, like is prediction markets gonna be sort of the new metric for that? They're partnering with a lot of news outlets to sort of provide faster news. Like, are we moving in in that on that pathway?

SPEAKER_00 30:19

Um there definitely there's definitely a lot of press on its value in use. So actually, interestingly, the Fed uh they recently published a paper um on the value of prediction markets for forecasting headline economic indicators. And they actually did find that at times uh Calci was actually more accurate uh compared to the Bloomberg consensus on a few indicators. Um and the Bloomberg consensus, that's like one of the main uh benchmark ones. Um and yeah, like you mentioned, there's a lot more press about different news outlets, and um I think Arc Invest a couple of weeks ago, they announced a partnership with CalShi as well. So it there's definitely there seems to be evidence of uh value and uh use um in them. Um I think for a couple of reasons. Um so one is like you're getting a more diverse group of market uh participants and you're aggregating their opinions on it, and you're kind of aggregating uh that sentiment at a very uh timely pace as well. So I think that's uh a couple of reasons why there's a lot of value there.

SPEAKER_02 31:24

I mean, I have loads of questions because even I know when you're polling and um doing targeted research on a small population of to sort of represent a much larger population, you need to have a lot of demographic information. So I do you feel like players like CalChi to be able to really fill that hole are gonna have to be able to provide what how representative that quote unquote panel is?

SPEAKER_00 31:48

Yeah, so I don't want to be quoted on this, but I do have opinions on that. So, like because the people on CalShi are like a lot of different market participants, so that's why if you're talking about, you know, a statistically significant or like representative demographic group, um, they would be uh sort of sort of the main ones, but you can't quote me on that because I haven't I don't know for sure that would be my feeling.

SPEAKER_02 32:15

Maybe it's a concluding question then. Um you've been in the industry for a long, long time. You've seen quite a few market cycles now. Where do you think, or what are your predictions for alternative data for the next 12 months?

SPEAKER_00 32:30

The next 12 months, yeah, good question. I mean, um, so I think I kind of alluded to the fact that alternative data was being used in official, uh, being used as like a complement to f official figures. So I think we're getting to a stage where these statistical agencies are actually exploring alternative data more seriously. So they probably won't do this in the next 12 months because everything happens quite slowly. Um, but they'll either integrate alternative data sets into the actual figures, or they will publish like a benchmark, like a not a benchmark, sorry, they'll publish an alternative um index for each um headline figure alongside the official figure as well. So I think we're moving in that direction. I don't know if it will happen in the next 12 months, but um yeah, actually, when I'm asked when I'm asked this question, um I uh make this joke that I think alternative macro data is gonna now be bigger than hip hop, but no one actually gets that joke because only like 3% of people I tell that joke to have actually heard uh the dead press song, it's bigger than hip-hop. So perhaps I should um stop telling that joke. But I don't know, if you get enough listeners, uh maybe enough people will know, so it'll become um marginally uh funnier. So so yeah, I guess that that would be um my answer. Alternative macro data now bigger than hip hop.

SPEAKER_01 33:53

If you so out of interest though, if you were then recommending to an alternative data provider who thought they had something really interesting from a macro perspective, it sounds like the advice isn't necessarily go out and find a bunch of macro funds and try and follow them your data. It's figure out which regulator is setting the benchmark and try and become their data provider. Because once you do that, every fund will be wanted to buy your data to figure out, say, what the Fed is going to do with interest rates, because if they're using your data to set their own um their benchmarks, etc., then the fund needs it as well.

SPEAKER_00 34:33

Yes, that is generally the advice that um I have given to some vendors to try and be the alternative benchmark. Um, but if you don't have seasoned like seasoned economists like actually, you know, prepping the data for the signal, uh they're not gonna, they're not gonna choose you. Um so if you have if you pay for a seasoned economist, and that's also a risk, because you actually don't know if there's gonna be a good signal or not. Um so yeah, I suppose um I don't know if that would be the advice like, oh, we have a transactional data set or we have a um, you know, yeah, in employee payroll data set that might have some labor market signals. There's a lot of sort of caveats, you need to have enough coverage, it needs to be representative, et cetera, et cetera. So um, yes, it seems like the best kind of strategy would be to try and be the alternative benchmark for it. But you need to be like, so rebellio labs, for example, like uh Ben at Rebellio Labs, he's an economist. He like, he, he knows how you know uh labor market figures work. Um, but yeah, um, if you're just like um if you haven't had experience in the space, then it's perhaps more difficult to know how to like seasonally adjust things, and then you've got to lag it by a certain amount. And then there's also like uh sort of temporal alignment as well. So like if you've got weekly data, but the the official data comes out coarsely or monthly, you have to like align those things. Um so yeah, those would be kind of um some of the challenges that a vendor would have to deal with.

SPEAKER_02 36:18

Yeah, it does feel like a really good opportunity as someone that sits on the vendor side. Like um, I used to work with uh Dodge Construction uh Oh yeah. Yeah, and and they're they're the uh the consensus for construction data. So and they get so much interest because they are consensus and they just provide data that fronts runs that number. And the the when the consensus gets published, it is market moving, and therefore they're required to run this data irrespective of whether it's valuable or not. Knowing when it will be a a good product. Um but uh yeah. Um I I don't know the the dead press song, but maybe we can uh we can use it as the outro if we can get the license. Thank you, Jimmy. It's been awesome.

SPEAKER_00 37:01

Thanks very much.

SPEAKER_02 37:03

Thank you.