Behrend Talks: A Penn State Podcast
Join Dr. Ralph Ford, Chancellor of Penn State Behrend, and guests for conversations about interesting things happening in the Erie community.
Behrend Talks: A Penn State Podcast
Pennsylvania’s role in the presidential election, with Dr. Robert Speel
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Dr. Ralph Ford, chancellor of Penn State Behrend, talks with Dr. Robert Speel, associate professor of political science, about Pennsylvania’s significance as a swing state in the 2024 presidential election. Originally recorded on October 14, 2024.
The Presidential Election and Campaign Strategies
Ralph FordI'm Dr/ Ralph Ford , chancellor of Penn State Behrend , and you are listening to Behrend Talks . Today I have a very special guest , Rob Spiel , associate Professor of Political Science and the Director of our Public Policy Initiative here at Penn State Behrend . With the upcoming election , we've got a lot to discuss the presidential race , the political divide in the nation , partisan divisions and the overall state of the country . Can we ever find consensus in middle ground ? We'll aim to answer those questions . Welcome to the show , Rob .
Robert SpeelThank you . Thank you for having me .
Ralph FordI know you've been on this program before , so I'll say welcome back . I'm going to embarrass you just a little bit , like I like to do with all the guests on the show , by highlighting your incredible achievements . You hold a PhD and a master's degree in government from Cornell University , along with a bachelor's degree in political science and sociology from the University of Pennsylvania . You also teach courses on American politics , focusing on elections , voting behavior , congress and the presidency . Every summer you take students to Toronto for a comparative politics course . You've written the book Changing Patterns of Voting in the Northern United States , which examines the regional divide between red and blue states . You're also a regular commentator for major national news outlets and there are many , many of them , like Newsweek, USA Today , the Miami Herald and the Philadelphia Inquirer , as I say , just to mention a few . And you've earned several prestigious awards here at Behrend . You've won the Council of Fellows Excellence in Outreach Award and you've won the Penn Statewide Award known as the George W Atherton Award for Excellence in Teaching , which is very difficult to win . Once again , welcome here , Rob , thank you .
Ralph FordNow let's dive into the heart of today's discussion . For the record , today is October 14th , 23 days before the election . Polls are showing an extremely tight race for the presidency , with a slight lead for Kamala Harris . Extremely tight race for the presidency , with a slight lead for Kamala Harris . So let's start with polling . So , Rob , how much weight would you give to polls ? Can we trust them , and have we learned anything about polling from recent elections ?
Robert SpeelWe can trust polling to the extent that we're pretty sure the race is close . I mean , everyone who analyzes US presidential politics thinks it's close between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump right now . Who's actually winning , we don't know . Kamala Harris if you look at all polls combined , kamala Harris probably does have a slight lead nationwide . Of course , that doesn't account for the Electoral College , which I think you'll be asking about a little later . So you know . As far as who's going to win in November , we don't know yet . As far as you know , as recent elections , donald Trump outperformed how he was doing in polling in 2016 and 2020 . On the other hand , democrats outperformed how they were polling in 2022 congressional elections , as well as many other special elections that have been held in the meantime . So pollsters are constantly fine-tuning their processes for taking the polls , particularly because most Americans no longer use landline phones . How accurate they are this year , we're actually not going to know until November .
Ralph FordPersonally , you know I like to follow FiveThirtyEight . I'm a bit of a political junkie . I know many people follow it . They run simulations . I find this fascinating and they show Kamala Harris winning 53 times out of 100 and Donald Trump running . If you run the simulation 100 times , 47 times . So do you think those simulations tell us much about the election ?
Robert SpeelI think what it tells us is 538.com , the website geared toward political junkies , is trying to get viewers and readers to pay attention to its forecast . I mean in 2016, 538.com was totally off the mark in predicting that Hillary Clinton was going to win, probably fairly easily . Along with several other websites that year , 538.com this year has been kind of reticent at predicting Kamala Harris will win , even though national polls have her slightly ahead . So it's fun information to read and there's p some utility to it , but they don't know any better than we do who's actually going to win next month . People who read 538.com people who are totally apathetic about politics are not looking at that . So it's trying to get people who are interested in politics to read .
Ralph FordWhat do you attribute this close race to , and could anything shift that dynamic in the coming weeks ?
Robert SpeelWe have a polarized country and , to some extent , the book you mentioned that I wrote Changing Patterns of Voting in the Northern United States . A main argument in that book Is when one group of voters moves toward one party and an opposite group of voters moves toward the other party and the United States . For a long time . We've had divisions between the Northern and Southern United States In politics For most of the last 150 years . So we're seeing that . We're seeing . We're seeing that . We're seeing that reflected in the polls .
Robert SpeelWe're seeing that reflected in election results where you know you have half the country who's very conservative and thinks Donald Trump is great and you have half the country who's either moderate or liberal and thinks Donald Trump is awful and are choosing Kamala Harris and as certain groups gravitate toward one candidate , groups and sort of reaction gravitate toward the other candidate and we're seeing that reflected in polls right now 4% left of undecided voters , according to polls . So if someone can win over those 4% , I mean it's hard to believe that . You know Donald Trump can say or do anything at this point that will attract over half the country to his side . He got less than half the vote even in 2016 when he won due to the Electoral College . So right now I would say it's kind of up to Kamala Harris .
Robert SpeelIf something comes up that we don't know about yet , some scandal or something bad happens , you know it's possible some of those so-called undecided voters may go to Trump . Or if some of those undecided voters may decide look , we've already been through four years of Trump , I don't want to do that again , and they may not know a lot about Kamala Harris , but they'll just decide okay , well , she's a better option of the two . So you know what those 4% of undecided people think . It's hard to tell , and hard what they're going to do , but I think a lot of it depends more on Kamala Harris than on Trump .
Ralph FordWell , let's also talk about campaign strategies . Harris has been on 60 Minutes , late night comedy shows and various media appearances that you're seeing with increasing frequency . How would you describe her strategy ? Is it different from what we've seen in the past ? Rob ?
Robert SpeelShe's actually . I saw today she's even going on Fox News . You know to sort of in the belly of the beast there for her . You know she's trying to reach everyone that she can on Fox News . You know to sort of in the belly of the beast there for her . You know she's trying to reach everyone that she can . I think you know she's visiting many places in Pennsylvania , including Erie , and I think she's kind of reaching out toward that moderate vote . You know the 4% of undecided voters are probably people who are either largely apathetic or somewhat moderate or centrist in nature , and she's doing what she can to reach all of them .
Robert SpeelShe's going on various social media podcasts and talking to people who she might not otherwise , such as trying to remember it's Call my Daddy . It's a podcast I don't listen to . I've been telling students shotry try to go on Joe Rogan , if Joe Rogan will allow her , on the program . I mean what we're seeing in polls right now is women in the United States strongly support Kamala Harris and men strongly support Donald Trump , and she's probably more likely to be able to try to win over some men than Donald Trump is to win over some women at this point . So if she can go on these social media platforms that Donald Trump is heavily investing time in , it probably would be a good strategy for her , and I think we're Ro goi to see her do that over the next several weeks .
Ralph FordThis I find fascinating as well .
Political Divides in Key Battleground States
Ralph FordDonald Trump recently campaigned in California , where he trails by a significant margin . What's the rationale behind that move ?
Robert SpeelHe's announced that he's going to win New York too . I mean , you know , Donald , I can't get in the mind of Donald Trump and what he's thinking . He's not going to win California, he's not going to win New York , I don't know . I mean , you know , we had some sort of magical thinking by Democrats in past elections where they would spend time in Texas , you know , with the hope that maybe they'd flip Texas , and it didn't happen . So you get that in every presidential election .
Robert SpeelIf we didn't have an electoral college system , it would make perfect sense for Donald Trump to go to California and New York because there's a lot of voters there . But in the electoral college system , where you win a state by 1% of the vote and you get all the electoral votes , it's R not a wise time of resources . But you know , donald Trump wants to show national popularity . So even if he could make California closer than expected , he would probably take that as a win . California , while it's not part of the same media market . Nevada and Arizona are both close by and those are both considered two of the battleground states , so a Donald Trump trip to Southern California may get news attention in Las Vegas and in Phoenix , which prodoes does want to get .
Ralph FordWe often hear about what's known as a calcified electorate , meaning it's hard to break through to either side , with only a small percentage of voters in the middle still undecided . So do you think focusing on their bases deepens the political divide ? Is that the approach that candidates should be taking , and is there any way to break out of this pattern ?
Robert SpeelIn the short term , I think it's going to continue to be this way . I mean , the reason we had more in the past we had some elections where presidential candidates might win by a landslide is we used to have a lot of conservatives in the South who were voted Democrat , and we used to have a lot of moderates or liberals in the North who voted Republican , and those are almost all gone now . So we have this situation where basically all liberals vote Democrat , all conservatives vote Republican . You have the solid South . It used to be called the solid South because it would vote Democrat in every election . Now it votes Republican in every election . We have the northern states which is what I wrote about in my book with Penn State Press many of whom used to vote Republican and now all vote Democrat states like Vermont or Maine or Minnesota . So I mean , you know , we just have this divide and I don't know that anyone's going to break through anytime in the near future . The polarization has just become stronger and stronger , and I think the internet and social media , rather than weaken that those ties , have just strengthened them , as people only consume media that generally agrees with things they already believe rather than try to find alternative viewpoints .
Robert SpeelVoter registration numbers are kind of irrelevant and I try to tell that to reporters who contact me about it a lot . One state , Nnorth Dakota , doesn't even have voter registration . We have over half the states now who either have open primary elections or alternative voting systems where voter registration really doesn't matter . And in fact it makes sense in some of these states with open primaries just to register as an independent , because then you can choose on the day of the primary whether you're a Republican or Democrat . I grew up in the state of Rhode Island , which has open primaries , and I remember when I turned 18 , I registered as an independent because there's no point to registering with the party when you can vote in either party's primary on the day of the primary election . So the number of people who are registered as independent may be growing . I don't think that really signifies a growing group of truly independent voters . It's mainly just because of the election system in those states .
Ralph FordNow let's shift the discussion right here to home in Erie , Pennsylvania . Erie is often highlighted as a bellwether in presidential elections . Both candidates have campaigned here recently , with Kamala Harris actually visiting here today . Why is Pennsylvania , and particularly Erie , so important for this election ?
Robert SpeelWell , because of the electoral college system , what matters is winning closely contested states by small margins , and Pennsylvania is one of the seven states that have been designated by pretty much the entire American media , as well as the campaigns themselves , as the battleground states this year . And of those seven battleground states , ennsylvania is the largest . So many political analysts and journalists see it as the keystone state . You know the nickname of Pennsylvania , the key to winning victory in November . Along with that , Erie County is one of only two counties in Pennsylvania that voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and voted for Joe Biden in 2020 . For that reasons , it's gained bellwether status in recent elections one of very few counties across the country , one of only two in Pennsylvania , to vote for the winning presidential candidate in the last two elections . The population of Erie County is about one-third urban the the city of Erie about one-third suburban Millcreek , Harborcreek , a couple other towns and about one-third is rural . So we have kind of the all demographics that you might find as far as the urban-rural split in the United States . Whereas urban areas like the city of Erie usually vote Democrat , rural areas like parts of Erie County usually vote Republican and the suburbs often determine the winner . I like to tell people , and particularly the reporters who contact me from out of town and are coming to visit Erie , I say go to Millcreek , the largest suburb of Erie , because Millcreek also voted for Trump in 2016 and voted for Biden in 2020 . So I tell people that's the Bellwether community in the Bellwether County , in the Bellwether State , and they've taken my advice and most of them have gone to Millcreek to see what's happening .
Robert SpeelAnother thing that I think is important in Erie County as far as being a bellwether County is Erie County , from what I've observed , probably has a higher percentage of moderates or centrists than you might find in many other parts of the country .
Robert SpeelMost of my students who are Democrats here I mean , some of them are very liberal and are big fans of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Bernie Sanders , but many of the local Democratic students in my classes are fairly moderate and they support the Democratic Party , but they're not as liberal as you might find national liberal Democrats and same for Republicans . Erie has a history of being a strong territory for moderate Republicans , including Tom Ridge , the former congressman and governor from Erie , and you get a lot of moderate Republicans both in the city of Erie and in Millcreek probably who tend to prefer conservative economic policies , but they're not necessarily big Donald Trump fans . You know some of those moderates , while they may not be as large in numbers in the past . There's a long tradition in Erie politics of having moderate voters and I think some of them are the swing voters who are determining who wins this county .
Ralph FordAnd , on a personal note , Rob , how are you managing all of this during the election process ? It must be incredibly demanding .
Robert SpeelErie has become such a bellwether that you mentioned some of the American media sources that have been contacting me this year . I've been contacted by a lot of international media sources , many of whom are visiting Erie . I met with a reporter from South Korea last week who was visiting Erie , and tomorrow I am meeting with a reporter from France who is visiting Erie for the week because they're looking at Erie as the ellwether County . I've been contacted by the Portuguese media , the Brazilian media , the Hong Kong media , japanese media , canadian media I'm trying to remember . There have been other countries too . I've been contacted probably by at least reporters in at least 10 different countries and they're all asking about Erie County because they want to see who's going to show us , who's going to win in November and they're looking at Erie as the bellwether county , not only for the United States but internationally .
Robert SpeelI did do an interview with yeah . One of the other countries that contacted me was Australia , the Australian Broadcasting Corporation , and my interview with them was at 4 a . m , us Eastern time , because in Australia I don't know what time it was . So , yeah , sometimes I get sleep , but sometimes I have to stay busy through the night .
Student Political Engagement and Misinformation
Ralph FordWhat are you hearing from the students on campus during this election cycle ? Are they engaged ? Are they planning to vote ? What are they thinking ?
Robert SpeelOur students when I teach American politics classes political science classes , of course and I found in the past that my students tend to reflect national opinion fairly well , and what I'm seeing with my students now , I think , confirms that . Among female students I'm seeing very strong support for Kamala Harris , which we also see in national polls . Among male students , they seem to just be keeping quiet . I don't really know who most of my male students support and they don't talk about it . I don't ask them directly unless they come up to me and volunteer that information . Some of the male students have indicated they do support Kamala Harris , at least in my current classes . I'm not finding a lot of support for Trump , at least vocally , but I'm guessing some of my male students probably do support Trump because they don't say who they support and of course we're seeing that nationally with a large gender gap divide between male and female voters . You know , obviously in my classes most students are interested in politics . They're in my political science class , so you're probably going to find more political awareness there than among other students . According to the students in my classes , however , they know students and friends from other classes who live with them in the dorms who are paying very little attention to this political race and who are claiming they're not going to vote . I'm hoping that's not the case , but that's what I'm hearing from students .
Robert SpeelI do my best to seem neutral in class . Certainly in policies I can remain neutral because , you know , my own political views actually are somewhat centrist , so I'm able to say things that will make conservatives happy , say things that make liberals happy and just say things that I think make the most sense . It gets a little more difficult if you have a presidential candidate who's just saying things that are blatantly untrue . And I'm not going to , you know , pretend for the class that the untrue is the same as the true . And so I sometimes do have to say things .
Robert SpeelBut I think , even if you know , some students support the candidate who might be saying untrue things , they understand that . You know , most educated people think those things are untrue and they live with it and they're fine with it . So you know , usually I try to take sort of a centrist , neutral , moderate stand in my class presentations . I never , ever tell them who to vote for . I also I change the way I assign readings . I used to assign kind of you know , dry American government textbooks , but I switched a few years ago and now I assign , you know , both academic and a lot of news articles based on current events . So I'm having them read what's happening in politics as it's happening and reading articles from a variety of sources so they get different kinds of viewpoints on what's happening in American politics and I think actually that's worked really well . Students seem to like readings about current events in American politics .
Ralph FordI often hear people and I'm sure you do as well alumni and community members . They're asking me what's happening on campus . It's definitely a loaded question . They often have this preconceived notion based on what they're seeing on the headlines . But I always tell them it's not quite what they might imagine . So what's your perspective of the campus climate , particularly around this election ?
Robert SpeelYeah , I get that question a lot , not so much from reporters but from relatives of mine who are not on this campus , as well as some of our alumni . They'll ask me you know what are the students doing to protest events in the Middle East or other ? You know things that are getting in the national news and I basically say nothing . I mean there are , there have been no , you know , widespread protests on this campus . You know what they're seeing in the news is basically the elite Ivy League schools and some other elite institutions where students tend to come from well-off backgrounds and they're busy protesting about whatever political cause is important to them at the moment , and these causes are important .
Robert SpeelI mean , I want to say a lot of these protests are for good causes , depending on your perspective . I want to say a lot of these protests are for good causes , depending on your perspective . But I tell alumni you know alumni should really know the campus perhaps that when they were here there was a lot of apathy and that hasn't changed too much . And I tell relatives , you know the stuff you're seeing in the news . You know that's Columbia University and University of Pennsylvania and Harvard . It's not Penn State , it's not Penn State Erie . So , yeah , I mean there's a lot of misconceptions that this is happening everywhere in the country and it's not .
Ralph FordI also want to take a moment to commend you and your colleagues in the political science department . I mean , many of our graduates have gone on to have really successful careers in politics , from congressional representatives like Rep Guy Reschenthaler , who's well known to those working in various political offices . I believe a lot of their success is inspired by what they learn here at Penn State Behrend .
Robert SpeelYeah , I think so , and actually just next week at the time we're talking next week on campus , we have a part of the Penn State Behrend Speaker Series . This year is Adam Fricassi-Weir , who is the Associate Director of the Michigan Bureau of Elections . He's basically the main attorney for the Michigan Bureau of Elections , so if there's any disputes in Michigan after the election this year , adam is going to be in charge of figuring out what to do about all that , and he's speaking on campus . So he's another one of our alumni who have accomplished a lot . I also want to add I take students to Washington DC every other year and I'll be doing that next March and we meet a lot of our alumni who work in Washington , are quite successful there , including Congressman Reschenthaler and several other alumni who may listen to this program . So I'm really proud of what a lot of our alumni have accomplished .
Ralph FordWe've seen increasing attacks on the election process itself , particularly around the fairness of elections . Do you think this weakens the system ?
Robert SpeelAnd are there any steps that we can do to strengthen it ? It's hard , I mean . People sometimes ask me what do I think is the biggest political danger facing this country , and my answer over the last several months has been misinformation and disinformation . Disinformation is kind of intentional misinformation being spread by political actors to fool people , and misinformation is just people not knowing what's real and what's not , and I think it's a growing problem . I mean , the internet , you know , supposedly when it began was supposed to provide more education for people and people could learn more about politics , but instead it's become a venue . It still does serve a useful purpose , but it's also become a venue for misinformation disinformation so you get people who make up claims about millions of illegal immigrants voting , which is just not true . You get people making other claims that the elections are fixed and whatever , and just none of this happened
Election Integrity and Political Polarization
Robert Speel.
Robert SpeelI mean , yes , every election , you have a small number of people . I mean I think there have been about 30 people convicted after the 2020 presidential election of voting twice . It's often more frequently than not . It was actually Trump voters in 2020 , from news reports I've read , and most frequently what they've done is they're registered to vote in two different states and they'll vote in person in one state and vote by mail in the other state . And does that happen occasionally ?
Robert SpeelYes , Is there widespread voter fraud ? No , Is there voter fraud to the extent that it affected the outcome of the election ? Absolutely not . But people will believe almost anything they see or hear , particularly in social media , and it's becoming a problem . So I think election integrity , I think election officials do the best they can . Are there mistakes in every election ? Yes , I mean local election officials work hard , they stay up late to count the votes and after every election , a couple , a week or two later , there are election officials somewhere that find oh , we made a mistake on election night and they correct it . Unless the election's within you know 100 or 200 votes , it usually doesn't matter . But you know they work hard to make sure the elections are fair and done in a smooth manner , and I think in the United States we should trust election results far more than perhaps in other countries where there is a lot of corruption and rigging going on .
Ralph FordAnother big issue is misinformation and disinformation . With social media playing such a large role , do you think that's a bigger risk than things like gerrymandering or even political violence ?
Robert SpeelWell , yeah , gerrymandering is a bad thing I wouldn't necessarily call it the biggest risk to this country and violence obviously is a big risk , which is bad , but that violence tends to be based on disinformation . So I mean , I think that's the number one . I mean , from my perspective , that's the number one danger to the future of democracy in this country is the spread of misinformation and disinformation . You try to vote against people spreading false information , but a lot of people believe the false information . So how do you convince them ? I don't know . The social media leaders , you know , including Mark Zuckerberg at Facebook and the leaders of Twitter back in 2020 , you know , would try to remove posts that they thought were spreading misinformation , but they've all backed off of that and in fact , elon Musk , on what is now X , kind of welcomes misinformation and actually posts some of it himself . So at this point , I don't know what you do .
Ralph FordLooking ahead to Election Day , do you think we'll have a clear result by midnight , or will the count drag on ?
Robert SpeelAt midnight . If you go to bed at midnight , maybe not unless one candidate is winning by a large margin by the time you wake up the next morning at 6 or 7 am , I think it's over a 50% chance . We do know the winner , but I think it may happen after midnight . So you just have to stay up really late , which I tend to do anyway , but I know not everyone is able to do that .
Ralph FordMail-in ballots have been another hot topic here in Pennsylvania . Why do we wait until Election Day to start counting them , instead of processing them earlier ?
Robert SpeelWell , that's state law . I mean the legislature . Interestingly and I teach this to students the Republican majority state legislature in Pennsylvania and Harrisburg approved no excuses mail-in voting in 2019 because prior to 2020 , republicans were more likely to vote by mail than Democrats were . It used to be under the absentee ballot system . A large portion of absentee ballots , or mail ballots , were from overseas military personnel and as well as retired people who maybe had difficulty getting to polling places , and these are both groups that skew Republican . And then in 2020 , covid hit and millions of voters , including a disproportionate share of Democrats I know I'm not referring to you individually here , but millions of American voters decided you know , I don't want to go to a polling place , and also , voting by mail is convenient .
Robert SpeelOne of the nice things about voting by mail is , in Pennsylvania , we have all these candidates on the ballot that no one's ever heard of . You know people running for judges and state auditor general . No one knows anything about them . If you vote by mail , you can actually , you know , do your research as you vote and try to figure out you know which side to vote for . So in 2019 , republicans passed the law , but then in 2020 , of course , we had one presidential candidate who said voting by mail is a fraud and there's corruption . And you suddenly get this divide between Democrats who support mail balloting and Republicans who now oppose mail balloting because of that . And so the Republicans in Harrisburg have been unwilling to change Pennsylvania state law to allow vote counting or even the opening of mail ballots to begin before election day , which is what most other states do .
Robert SpeelOther states have the person power and they open the mail ballots and they don't start counting them . But well , a few states actually , they do start counting them , but in most states , they'll open the ballots , open the envelopes at least they'll have the mail ballots and they don't start counting them . But well , a few states actually , they do start counting them , but in most states , they'll open the ballots , open the envelopes at least they'll have the mail ballots ready to feed through the machine , ready to go on election day , and they have the person power in place to do this . Pennsylvania could also do that , but it would require a change in state law . So Pennsylvania state law currently says that election officials can't even open the envelopes containing mail ballots until election day , which of course , led to a delayed count in 2020 and accusations of fraud and corruption and we found out who won Pennsylvania .
Robert SpeelI think it was on the Saturday after the election , which is when it was announced that Joe Biden had earned enough electoral votes to win . I think I noticed in 2022, . In 2022 , pennsylvania counted all the votes on election night and John Fetterman was declared the winner of the US Senate race on election night . So I have suspicions that election officials across the state have figured out a way to deal with this probably of not being able to open envelopes until election day , and we'll probably be quicker this year than they were in 2020 , but there are also more votes in a presidential election year than in a midterm election 2020 , but there are also more votes in a presidential election year than in a midterm election . So it probably will still go past midnight on election night , which is why I said you know , if you go to bed at midnight , you may miss the results . If you're up at 6 am , you may find out the results .
Ralph FordAnd now , ob , for one of your favorite subjects , the Electoral College . Do you think it's still relevant and do you see any possibility of change ?
Robert SpeelWithout an Electoral College . If every vote mattered , you'd see Donald Trump and Kamala Harris campaigning far more in California to win the votes of not only people in San Francisco and Los Angeles but in the Central Valley , which is more rural and Republican . You'd see them both campaigning in Texas , in Austin and San Antonio and Dallas and Houston and small cities across Texas . You'd see them go to Oklahoma . They'd campaign in Oklahoma City . They'd go to Kansas City and Kansas and Houston and small cities across Texas . You'd see them go to Oklahoma . They'd campaign in Oklahoma City . They'd go to Kansas City .
Robert SpeelIn Kansas and Missouri , they would go to Indianapolis . They would go to Louisville , kentucky . They would go to Birmingham , alabama . They would go to all these places they completely ignore now because every vote matters and anywhere there's a concentration of votes they would go without the electoral college . So the idea of the electoral college kind of helps out small states is just . It's easy to disprove and in 2020 and 2016 , the four major party presidential and vice presidential candidates spent over 90% of their time in just about 10 states each time and the other 40 states all got ignored and we're seeing that again this year .
Ralph FordAs we near the end of our time , let me ask you one final question . Do you think the US political landscape has any hope of moderation ? Are we locked into this entrenched two-party system for the foreseeable future ?
Robert SpeelIn the short term , I think we're going to continue the way they are with polarization . In the long term , I think it's possible . You know it depends . Politics in the United States depends far more on leadership than perhaps a lot of political scientists might want to admit . A lot of political scientists would just look at you know political and economic trends . But if I think of a certain type of you know , charismatic leader who's able to convince people one way or the other about certain issues , that can cause what's called a realignment in political science . And , you know , perhaps you could get a resurgence of a centrist voting bloc in this country if you found the right candidate to lead it . I don't know that we have someone right now , but in the long-term future then maybe yes , and we can look overseas and we can look . You know , a lot of European countries are having the same issues with polarization , but in some of those countries centrists have been able to break through and win elections . And it could happen here too with the right type of political leadership .
Ralph FordWell said , Rob .
Comparing Canada and United States
Ralph FordBefore we close , is there anything else you'd like to add ?
Robert SpeelI'll just add I mean you mentioned at the top some of my past publications and work I've done . But in March of next year the University of Toronto Press will be publishing a book I co-authored called the Same , only Different comparing Canada and the United States , which is based on the course I've been teaching in Toronto for many years .
Ralph FordYou've been listening to Dr Rob Sp , Associate Professor of Political Science here at Penn State , Behrend . This has been a great conversation . I'm Dr Ralph Ford and you've been listening to Behrend Talks .
Robert SpeelThank you . Thank you for having me .