The ONE Capital Gains Tax Proposal That Actually Makes Sense

00:00 — Labor's CGT Changes: It's a Cash Grab Not a Housing Fix

01:54 — Why Grandfathering WON'T Happen

02:19 — Why the Banks Are Pushing Government Towards Property

03:33 — Ben Kingsley's CGT Proposal Explained

05:33 — Why This Plan Punishes Flippers But Protects Long-Term Investors

08:34 — The #1 Indicator of Buyer Quality

10:53 — Where the Market Is Breaking Down Right Now

12:14 — The Big Change Coming to Real Estate

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Transcript

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Government Cash Grab Allegation

Tom Panos 0:00

That ain't enough. They're dying for money. They're hanging around ATM machines. That's what the Labour government looks like at the moment. So I've got to say that I believe that they will not be grandfathering. And that leads me to what I believe we should be looking at as a solution. And you know what really upsets me? I'll tell you what upsets me. I'm really disappointed in the Australian government. Really disappointed because I think that what they're doing is they're not being honest. I think they're not being honest. I think what they're really, really doing is trying to do a cash grab because of all the spending the government has been doing, which has created the need to actually steal some money very quickly, right? So um on the one hand, on the one hand, they're making it look like, oh, we're doing this to help real estate prices, right?

Why Grandfathering Looks Unlikely

Tom Panos 1:03

But I think the real motive is that they need money, and the easiest money to get is the capital gains. Here is what worries me. Yes, I believe there's a strong possibility they are not going to do a hundred percent grandfathering. I don't think they're gonna do it. And the reason I say that, it is going to take many, many years for the government to collect money if they grandfather it. Because think about it, all the profits have already been made. If they're going to bring in a change to capital gains tax and say it begins from May 14 or whatever date they choose, people have to buy a property, it's got to go up, then they've got to sell it. That ain't enough. They're dying for money, they're hanging around ATM machines. That's what the Labour government looks like at the moment. So I've got to say that I believe that they will not be grandfathering. And that leads me to what I believe we should be looking at as a solution. And you know what really upsets me? I'll tell you what upsets me. The banks. Because

Banks Deflect Toward Property

Tom Panos 2:20

the banks know the crocodile's coming. The banks know the crocodile's coming, and so does the business council of Australia. So what they're doing is saying, hey, listen, the government needs money. They're coming. You know what? Let's deflect them. Let's push them towards property. And the reason why is that the banks and the business council of Australia do not want them to be touching other assets. They want them to be touching property. They don't want them to be touching other assets, i.e., shares. No Commonwealth Bank shareholder or any bank shareholder is going to want to hear that there's a change in that. And that's why you've got the big four banks and the big corporates heavy hitters, sort of saying, yeah, maybe you should be looking at capital gains. No, you should be looking at all

Ben Kingsley’s Sliding CGT Proposal

Tom Panos 3:16

assets. Number one. Number two, I think we should take some serious consideration to the proposal that Ben Kingsley ran on Instagram when I did a live streaming on Monday night. So let me just give you a one-minute summary on his proposal. Now, I've looked at all the possible solutions, right? Now, the real solutions are, let's get honest, the real solutions are that Albo pulls his finger out, starts kicking some butt, and tell people to start meeting the targets of buildings that they're way behind, right? But that's all too hard. Let's just go for a cash grab. So I've just accepted it's gonna happen now. I've just accepted. So now we've gone to the next step. What is a good solution that takes into account that the government needs money and that they're gonna do it? Well, Ben Kingsley, who is the chair of the Australian Investors Property Council, I think that's it, or something along, the Australian Investors Council, his proposal is that capital gains tax is grandfathered, but only grandfathered, right? If you've had a property for more than five years. So his proposal that has got a lot of support at the moment, and I'm actually a supporter of it as well. I'm a supporter of it as well. Let's go through it. He believes that if you buy a property and flip it within 12 months, you should get no discount. You pay full tax. If you sell it between month 12 and month 24, you get a 10% discount. If you sell it month 24 to month 30C, you get a 20% discount. And you keep going up 10% till you get to year five. So if you've kept a property for more than five years, it means that you'll be treated in exactly the same way it's been the last few decades, where you will pay tax on 50% of the gain. That's the assessment. So let me tell you why I think it's a solid proposal. Because it actually punishes those that actually flip property, that buy and sell in

Why Long-Term Holders Should Benefit

Tom Panos 5:45

a short period of time. But for the people that are long-term holders that are providing housing for tenants and the tenants don't have to keep moving in and out, it creates stability, and that's needed for the tenancy market. It also is making sure that people that are keeping for properties for more than five years, they're not speculators. They're not going in to make a quick buck. They're playing long-term security, and let's be quite honest with you, they should be getting a 50% discount on their capital gains tax bill at the end of 20 years, because for 20 years, if they're negative gearing, they're losing. They're losing money every year. I want you to think about that. Do you understand the concept of negative gearing? You're losing money. To negative gear, you have to lose money. You have to have a gap between what the bank is charging you in interest, council rates, water rates, maintenance costs, and then you look at the rent, and then if there is a loss, right, it's negative gearing. So, Anna, it was five out of ten. She's come in late. So, team, I've got to say, for me, the proposal

Market Pulse And Auction Reality

Tom Panos 7:07

of what I've described is a bearable solution, and I think I like it because it's going to allow tenants to keep having housing, it's going to allow property to keep moving and transacting, which the government needs because of stamp duty. And more importantly, it's going to provide money to the Australian government, and they're going to need it. But I'm going to make a suggestion. Stop spending as much. So, team, that's the story. I'm letting you know. I'm going to go do my last auction now. It is 5.13. The auction starts at 5.30. And after that, do you know what I'm going to go do after that? I'm going to go watch Sydney FC play Melbourne victory. Tom, going to Sydney United, score prediction, please, Nostradamus. David, Sydney United, Sydney United. Do you mean Sydney FC? If you mean Sydney FC, they're playing Melbourne victory. Sydney United is playing out West in uh King Promise Blower Park. Do you think prices could go down? Yes, Ray, I think prices could go down 100%. I think that regardless, when we've got at the moment the noise, we've got, you know, we've got a cost of living problem. When you couple that with, you know, higher interest rates and rates going up, and then we've got all the noise with these taxes and property. I do think that we've got a high likelihood of it going down. Sydney of C is going to beat Melbourne victory today at Alliance Stadium. There's a guy trying to park his car. He's about to hit my car. Listen, I'm going to finish this wrap, right? Just in case. And I've got to get to an auction. Because this guy here has taken ten minutes to park this car, right? Ten minutes. He's got a V6 Orient Prodigy. He has ten minutes on Burwood Road. The biggest indicator on not the quantity of buyers, but the quality of buyers is whether they make amendments to the contract. And the reason why, if they make amendments to the contract prior to auction day, it means that they have invested time and money with a solicitor. And that basically means they've got skin in the game. So what are kind of amendments that you actually see or hear about on auction day? The 10% deposit becoming a 5% deposit. And it needs the buyer solicitor to tell the vendor solicitor. And nearly all times they approve that. Releasing the deposit, there's another amendment when a vendor wants the deposit released to them so they can use it on their next purchase. Otherwise, it just sits in a trust account earning interest for six weeks or whatever the settlement period is. So when there's amendments and the real estate agent has just informed me that my auction at 5.30 has got no amendments and two shaky buyers, so there's a

Interest Rates And Buyer Depth

Tom Panos 10:20

good chance it's probably not going to sell. So I want to let you know what that basically means for my results for the day, five out of ten. And that is, I believe, what I got last week. Except last week I worked on Sunday as well, and that property didn't sell either on Sunday. So look, the bottom line is it's not like it was. We clearly know that, right? Essentially, what you've got is the marketplace that anything up to the 5% deposit bond because there's a lot of depth in buyers, there's plenty of those. But once you start talking about price points around the country that are higher than the lower price point or the threshold for the guaranteed 5% deposit scheme, we're seeing buyer debt is actually waning. There is no question about it. You know, we've got an interest rate announcement happening. Uh let me have a quick look. Sorry, it's not next week, it's the week after. Off the top of my head, it's around March 17. And I can tell you the markets have actually got a probability of only a 30% increase in rates and a 70% that it's going to stay on hold. However, there is strong suggestions that there is going to be a rate rise, not in March, but potentially in May. I think the RBA might just sit tight and just see what happens. But we all know that inflation numbers impact that, though inflation numbers that came out recently weren't good. So five out of ten in another week, lower price point good, higher price point lacking the energy. Oh, by the way, by the way, I want to let you

Free VPA Course And Marketing Shift

Tom Panos 12:05

know all the real estate agents that want to receive a free course I have put up on vendor paid advertising. Just reply back in the comments and write VPA V P A and you'll get it sent to you. The reason I say that is that I don't like it when real estate agents actually don't help an owner maximize their price by giving them a market. I mean, if you don't market a house properly, like even Hollywood movies have a trailer. They want people to get excited about it, right? At the end of the day, you've got to put a spotlight on a property because there's a lot of property on the market. And if you're not going to do any marketing, you're going to be building a billboard in the forest. No one's going to see it. So I've actually put a course together showing what exceptional marketing is. And I believe the big change in real estate in 2026, watch the next few months.

Portals, Video, And Next-Gen Listings

Tom Panos 13:16

The way that you look at property on the portals is changing. It's going to be very immersive. There's going to be a lot of 3D rendering. There's going to be a lot of floor plans, and the experience for buyers is about to go to the next level. At the moment, only 20% of properties online carry videos. You're about to see that number just absolutely go ballistic. Signing off.