Growing Ecommerce – The Retail Growth Podcast

Will AI Break Google Search? Plus: Tariff Shocks & the Rise of Zero-Click

• Smarter Ecommerce • Season 4 • Episode 4

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Google’s turning into an answer engine—so why does it feel like the internet’s disappearing beneath it? 

In this episode of Growing Ecommerce, Mike and Chris tackle the search shake-up and what it means for everyone from advertisers to publishers:

• AI Overviews (AIO) could kill clicks — We break down how Google’s zero-click model is reshaping the internet and threatening entire business models.

• Can Google hold its ground in the AI era? Or are leaner, AI-native rivals closing in?

• What is “Vibe Marketing” and why are creative teams obsessed with it? We explore the rise of aesthetic-driven strategy in ad workflows.

• Tariffs are back—and they’re shifting ecommerce strategies fast. Why they might force brands to focus on profitability instead of just revenue growth.

• 2025 is not just about riding the AI wave. It’s about surviving the cracks forming underneath.

Whether you're a marketer, brand strategist, or just trying to stay sane in the age of AI illusions and platform power plays, this episode is your no-BS guide to what’s really happening.

🎧 Subscribe for more deep dives into the future of digital marketing, AI, and platform ethics.
💬 Drop your thoughts: Is zero-click search good or bad for the web?

#AIinMarketing #GoogleSearch #EcommerceStrategy #DigitalAdvertising #MarketingPodcast #GoogleAds

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About smec (Smarter Ecommerce):

At smec - Smarter Ecommerce, we specialize in transforming business goals into optimized ad campaigns. With over 16 years of experience in Google & Microsoft Ads, our intelligent software and expert services help retailers achieve superior results. 

We're committed to giving you the tools and insights needed to stay ahead in the ever-evolving world of digital advertising.


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Speaker 1:

Hey, this is Mike Ryan. Welcome to Growing E-Commerce.

Speaker 2:

This is Chris, your proud co-host, and Mike, if I may run through the agenda for today, take us through First time. I do this quite nervous. Looking at the agenda. It makes me even more nervous because there are some crazy discussions ahead of us. We will start with Google AIO Quite interesting, quite interesting topic, quite disruptive. So is web marketing, that's for sure. I think it will be rather led by you. I'm really interested in your take on that. Then we'll discuss the fate of Google. I think we have been discussing this somehow in one of the former episodes, but today we will really deep dive. Will Google remain on the top, yes or no? Let's see. And the last agenda point of today is I think a couple of weeks ago Trump had his stay, increasing or doubling down on tariffs, and today we'll talk about tariffs and the impact on shopping habits. Quite a big topic. And as time flies, mike, let's jump right into the first agenda point Google AIO. What is it? And then we can discuss the impact on us advertisers, publishers and so forth.

Speaker 1:

Sure, let's kick it off. Aio was formerly known as SGE, search generative experience, which is, I mean it should have been called generative search experience, shouldn't it?

Speaker 2:

I'm not an expert, but the same with Google Performance Max Could have also been Google Max Performance Max, performance, yeah, performance Max. Philosophical question yeah, max is yeah.

Speaker 1:

But AIO, on the other hand, stands for AI, or artificial intelligence, overviews, and this feature it's a bit like the featured snippets of conventional Google search, where Google kind of scrapes a web and answers the question on behalf of some lucky websites or websites. Are they truly lucky?

Speaker 2:

But we'll discuss it.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, rather now in the past, you know a snippet would be. Really it would be a featured quote from maybe a blog article you wrote or whatever, and there would be a link right there to your website and there were already mixed feelings about that. Aio is going to write its own answer, not your words, but they'll be based on your words, or perhaps the words of you and several other people, and then all of those sources might be linked to.

Speaker 2:

That's what AIO is Now. What's the purpose behind it? To help users, chris. To help users, of course. What?

Speaker 1:

else, what kind of a question? No, it's a good question, let's assume there might be another one.

Speaker 2:

Which could it be?

Speaker 1:

Yeah, I mean it's very interesting. This is an unscripted podcast and I'm thinking how to answer this very interesting question. You know, I think their goal is ostensibly to help users. They want to provide a really good experience, and there are things that I love about Google's kind of auto-generated things, like I can use Google search bar as a calculator if I want. I can easily check time zones or currency conversions, and, for sure, there are websites that want you to visit their website for their little tool that they built so they can monetize that with some ads or whatever. But this is happening at a much larger scale and while I think featured snippet again mixed feelings about this, but I was always proud when we had the featured snippet I think it showed us as definitive and it spotlighted us and whether or not people clicked through or not, I think there was kind of a brand impression there. And whether or not people clicked through or not, I think there was kind of a brand impression there.

Speaker 2:

But this is what's called zero-click search results, because the idea is that maybe the person's going to click through but they don't necessarily need to to get their question answered, and that's the thing is it starts shifting Google into an answer engine that synthesizes content to provide an answer, rather than a search engine that's directing traffic all around the web Makes sense, and this was a genuine question, I mean because what I don't see as of now is how this helps Google to monetize maybe even more their biggest revenue share part, which is paid search. So it seems like it's really all about the experience and making the experiments on Google just better right, I mean, I think the argument can be made.

Speaker 2:

However, as far as I see and please correct me if I'm wrong here so it will probably benefit the end user, you and me and all our listeners.

Speaker 1:

As long as it doesn't tell you to put glue on your pizza. Eat rocks.

Speaker 2:

Exactly eat rocks yeah, but let's assume this works and then it really helps you to educate yourself on not purely a commercially driven search terms. Let's assume that's the case, which is good, but are there equations or are there stakeholders who are not benefiting from it?

Speaker 1:

It's a rhetorical question, but let's zoom in on this. I mean, yeah, sure, because this is a big thing, for sure, and the answer is kind of basically everyone else or we have to change our expectations of what Google Search does for our business, because you know, there are publishers around the web that, by the way, they're also part of Google's ad business because they're monetized and there's a very high chance that they're monetized through Google, but they want people visiting their website being exposed to ads to support them producing content. There are the whole affiliate markets and the people doing SEO to writing these very lengthy cliches, the recipes. You know, like writing these very lengthy the cliches, the recipes. You just want the effing recipe and you have to scroll through pages of SEO fluff to get there, and I mean just about everyone else.

Speaker 1:

Also, here in Europe, a big topic that comes up are the verticals. Like you know, the hotel, like the booking vertical and like comparison shopping as a vertical, all these things. Like the booking vertical and like comparison shopping as a vertical, all these things and it's a very sensitive topic about these verticals being either, you know, demerited or Google self-privileging or Google bypassing, because they have a dependency.

Speaker 2:

It's a bypass actually. Yeah, in this case it's a bypass. Did this intermediate? By the way, I respect Google hugely for that, because I think it's very, very much aligned with the core principle to make the experience of the end user, or for the end user, as good as it possibly can get, and that's what they're doing with that feature. However, I think there will be a backlash for sure, because it basically cuts. I mean, if you are a publisher right now, this is game changing, literally, and I think Google has to think about how to, because, as far as I know, there's no way now for a publisher to even get click through rates. So any metrics on these AIOs, right?

Speaker 1:

I think they're. I'm not an organic expert. I think there will be. They've teased that there.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, that there will be something coming to like.

Speaker 1:

Google Search Console, but it's not going to be. Let's see what it is, Because this is huge.

Speaker 2:

So I think we can agree on it's really the purpose, it seems, is really a good one for the end user of Google, but there will be some players who will get massively hit. Yes, Massively, yeah. One last question Do you think because we talked about and probably we'll talk about as part of the faith of Google channel point, but we talked about that Google is somehow a bit more defensive with regards to embedding AI into their search product? Yeah, Is this the first step? Of course it is, but is it a serious one? And is it the first step to also making the AI part of also the search monetization strategy? Because that's where Google is, I don't know, somewhat very defensive right now. What is your take on it?

Speaker 1:

It's a very interesting one. And also, if we bring this around to e-commerce too, how this because this is not just informational queries or like it can also affect product related queries and stuff like that. So ads are rolling out to AI overviews, but they've been very, very rare so far, kind of, to my mind, strangely rare. It's been a very conservative rollout. But yeah, like Google needs to look at the cost of serving these queries compared to classic queries and that needs to work for them on a per query basis, because a lot of what Google of Google search volume is is is not commercially relevant to Google.

Speaker 2:

It's only a cost center.

Speaker 1:

They. There's this small minority of commercially related related queries that they can monetize and they're actually using AI to change the experience on all these informational queries and the path to monetization is like they need to subsidize all of this activity somehow.

Speaker 2:

That's why I love this move from if I were Google shareholder.

Speaker 2:

I think this is a great move because, as you said, a big part of search volume is not basically transactional or commercially driven but as a matter of fact, there is massive untapped commercial potential with all uncommercial search queries, as a matter of fact, right. So I think this is a good step which makes the experience better, and I really think it's a first good step to embed AI in the search product which they have to do down the line. Looking at perplexity, gpt search, and so let's see, that's a wrap, interesting stuff. Anything you would like to add, mike?

Speaker 1:

No, I mean just that again bringing around the e-commerce. I'm very much keeping an eye on data for like. What is this doing to e-commerce to like their organic traffic? Is it hurting their organic traffic as well to their web shop? Does this mean that there's an increased dependency on ads? It's just not clear right now, especially here in Europe. It's newer but it's rolled out a lot faster.

Speaker 2:

Quite aggressively, right, yeah, so basically it's I don't know how many state countries now in Europe, I don't know it's like seven or eight, I think.

Speaker 1:

Even humble little Austria, where we are, we have it too.

Speaker 2:

Finally, we are somehow a fast mover, right, An early adopter. I mean not that we had the choice back in the days. Austria is part of the first wave of rollout.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, we made the list, but you know the reason why. If we're honest, it's very related to the language that we speak here German. If you roll out for Germany, it makes sense. I think the thing they need to do is tackle or one thing they need to do is tackle the languages.

Speaker 2:

But yeah, All right, google AIO, we keep you posted Quite a disruptive thing and and super interesting now, mike bite marketing. Let's. Let's start with what. What is it and what impact could it have on e-commerce, on retailers, on users using search platforms? Yeah, I.

Speaker 1:

I tried to move. I made this unholy term here and I tried to move early so that I can claim ownership of it later on. But the background here is there's something called vibe coding which is from Andre Karpathy. He's one of the co-founders of OpenAI and he had this tweet a while back now and it's I could never interpret if this was how serious the tweet was like it was, but also it had it felt ironic too. It was definitely self-deprecating.

Speaker 1:

Like he wrote this, this tweet or whatever it's called on an ex-post where he said that he was taking this very hands-off approach to coding with AI and really kind of almost to an extent, a purposely dumb approach, like a brute force approach where you know he'll ask AI to generate some code for him and it's buggy or it's not working, and instead of him then sitting down and like working it out and fixing or stuff like that, you say do it again, try again, and he's not paying attention to anything, just generating, code, generating, regenerating and the way he described it felt like so almost reckless or carefree, to put it in a more positive way. But it overnight became a big trend in Silicon Valley and it's been some time now. It's not going away. People are taking it really seriously, and that's a question that I have is like can this not extend to other domains like marketing, sales, yeah, sales, vibe BDs. I can't wait to get Vibe BD.

Speaker 2:

Vibe closing, blowing up my LinkedIn? No, but look, I mean as a matter of fact. I mean, what I really, really believe in is and this is this powerful quote I got from a high exec at Google is that doesn't matter in which industry you're in. Basically, you're not competing against AI, but you're competing against your competitors who are using AI. I think this is very, very true, and that's why.

Speaker 1:

I'm a big believer in that.

Speaker 2:

also other areas where you might think what could AI do to replace a seller? But I think it's not about replacing, I think it's all about leveraging.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, For the time being at least.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, for the time being, and I'm not saying I mean we don't know the progress we will make, but right now I think it's all about leveraging and I'm a big believer that, yes, even marketing, sales, business sales, development, ai will be, has to be embedded in everything we do. Else, you will get eaten alive by competitors who are open to that. So I really believe in that.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, for sure and I mean one thing that I I think back on sometimes and I and I've probably been said on here before I or I always assume that I'm just like the worst old man, repeating myself all the time, but I really think of, like how powerful smartphones are and how much they change the world, but also like we, we already have the entire world's knowledge in our pockets at all times. We have this incredibly powerful tool and it like even I think of my, my mother-in-law, and she doesn't know how to use a computer. She doesn't think she knows how to use a computer. She uses a computer daily.

Speaker 1:

It's a mobile computer, but the way that we use these tools can diverge rapid or like not rapidly a lot from from each other. And you know, are you using your phone to watch cat videos, to melt your brain with your tiktok feed, or are you using your phone to learn, discover, be more efficient and stuff like that? And and this is to me the closest analogy, because this is now I would say this is the next big disruptive technological trend is AI, and I absolutely agree that it will not be used equally. In theory democratizes so much stuff, but ultimately there's still this layer on top, which is our brain, and we are not. Our brains are not created equal.

Speaker 2:

So no, that's, that's for sure. And I mean philosophically, we could even, because I can remember a podcast where they were talking about the future of the human race and that there is a big chance of becoming like thisborg-esque right new species.

Speaker 2:

And then one guy who was very much into AI said look, I mean, if you're quite bold, you could say that there are a lot of billions of cyborgs running around right now because the iPhone it's an extension of. I mean, it's crazy, right, and AI will be part of that type of technology as well. So I will be so embedded in everything we do, whether it's watching cat videos or applying it professionally. I think the big thing is really that we have to accept the fact that it's not an if. So, if you want to be successful, you have to be open about AI, because I'm this type of believer that it's not a it's not a if. So, if you want to be successful, you have to be open about the AI, because I'm I'm this type of believer that it's not about replacement, it's all about leveraging.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, for sure. And the cool thing is and we see this in our marketing and sales department that we have extremely talented people here and there are just tasks now still done manually, which I wouldn't call it C-task, but repetitive tasks where our highly talented people shouldn't be putting any focus on. That's the low-hanging fruit right for AI and automation. So I'm a believer, I'm positive about this whole development and I co-sign that it's not about wipe coding, it's about wipe marketing down the line.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, and we already see, ever since ChatGPT released its new image creator, that was an overnight explosion in terms of people, the quality, right, yeah, the quality and people were. The first thing that started happening was people were inserting their or at least in my bubble was people, was people check out mike's linkedin uh page right there there's this new new image, your avatar right. Oh yeah, yeah uh let's see if it's still up by the time the episode airs. But yeah, I had I, I giblified myself, I, I giblified myself.

Speaker 1:

I feel bad about it, kibbley actually it looks like it looks like you yeah yeah, yeah, hiyama yuzaki hates AI, so I feel pretty bad about myself, but it's like the Napster era. You know, we know it's wrong and we know it's illegal, but we all do it anyway, and I think we're all going to have to find a way through that together. Like now there's not Napster anymore, there's Spotify, and this is going to happen to AI at some point too, and this is going to happen to AI at some point too. But what I want to say is that, like in my bubble, immediately, people just started inserting products into ads and generating creative and all kinds of stuff, and this is what I mean with, like vibe marketing. We're going there fast.

Speaker 2:

Yes, fast, and, I think, done the right way. It's a good thing. It's a good thing. Let's move on to the fate of Google. Why do we have to talk about the fate of Google? I mean, isn't it a highly profitable, highly successful company?

Speaker 1:

Yeah, I mean one thing I admire about Jeff Bezos not to switch companies, but he said that, like he's been open, that Amazon will get disrupted one day. He's always been.

Speaker 2:

He fights every day against disruption.

Speaker 1:

Against disruption, and I think Google lost a little bit of that spark. Maybe I think they've got some fight back in them, but it's crazy to think that it's been such a dominant company for the last couple of decades at this point.

Speaker 2:

And actually the crazy thing is it still is. I mean again, if you look at their earnings per shares, at the profit they generate, I think it's crazy to talk about the fate of Google looking at the current numbers. But yet and maybe this is a good intro into this agenda point I think Google can be a victim of its own success. Because if you look at the CAGR of Google, let's say the last 10 years, they have an average, average yearly growth rate of roughly 20 percent and you know how, how the street, the wall street, is working right. I mean, if, if this is the history and you have an average 20 percent year-over-year growth and you grow only slightly less and the outlook is maybe only 12% year-over-year growth, that could hurt Google massively Share prices, general reputation, even though the fundamentals still look great. And I think that's where I'm kind of a bit bearish on Google is where is the growth coming from? Because I think they have some unprecedented risks, or risk exposure to their core revenue driver, which is paid search. Yeah, yeah.

Speaker 1:

It's a great point. I mean, I think, on the bullish side, we know that their queries have been growing. I think it is, though, hard to interpret exactly what it means because, like the last time they had reported this number, they had like 2 trillion queries and several years later it was up to 5 trillion, which is a big jump. But there's also we were talking earlier that a subset of search is actually profitable for them. So which category of queries is growing? Is it good for the user experience that queries are growing? Is it because people are coming back more often and searching more, or do they need more attempts to figure out to find what to get what they wanted? So there's a lot of. It's actually a vanity metric to look at query growth, but people love it.

Speaker 1:

But I'm still. I'm bullish on Google more because of just how embedded they've become, of just how embedded they've become. They've become so embedded that the DOJ and the EU are trying to break them up or pry them out of things, but I still think that they own this huge amount of mental real estate for all of us. They are so present at so many touch points and so useful and valuable at so many touch points in our daily lives. I'm not shy about this. I think that Google, by you know in the whole history, I'm not sure I can say, but they are one of the most net beneficial companies that ever existed and and I think that, provided they are allowed to rise to the challenge that regulators don't stop them, I think they will.

Speaker 2:

Okay, I mean, let let's. Let's break this down. By the way, where I have to, of course, completely support your hypothesis is that, if you look at the global online search pair, Google has a whopping 89%. But there's a saying I think it's way easier to become first than staying on the top, and I think this is where we have to be precise here. Is Google still a highly profitable company 10 years from now? Of course, but the question is are they still clearly the number one? Are they gaining in market share? Are they keeping the CAGR at around 20%? And that's where I think they have some valid risk. A antitrust, right? It's a big thing for them. On our train ride to the studio, we talked about it. Right, this is a big thing for Google. Another thing is, from my perspective, they are not really diversified enough, because, outside of Google search and again, a massive product with massive Outside of the biggest product ever.

Speaker 2:

Ever. Fair enough, but we talked about the biggest product.

Speaker 1:

Outside of the most successful product ever Browser ever. Outside of the biggest OS, a mobile OS ever.

Speaker 2:

Yes, we talk about that core revenue stream in a minute, but what do they have outside of it? They have quantum computing where I mean this is super early to tell Cloud business. I mean they bought WISP but 12% market share compared to Microsoft and Amazon, they're not close. Then you have WIMO 1,000 cars deployed in the US, I don't know.

Speaker 2:

So, the search has to remain super strong. And that's where I'm not super super sure about it, because there is this major threat of AI, of a new wave of search behavior which is triggered by AI, and I think there are players out there now who are more aggressive, who are more open, who are more bold to embed AI into their ecosystem, which could make the best product ever vulnerable. And if this is the case, Mike, then again this 20% growth rate is at risk, and this is enough to just have some disruptive effect on this great company.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, I mean I agree that it's easy for them to get like kind of the stink of death on the stock market. But the first thing I want to challenge what you said. You were talking that it's easier to get into first position than it is to stay there, and I think that this is exactly inverse in a model like Google that benefits from network effects because they've solved the critical mass challenge that any income, any challenger, has to solve, like you need to, you need to have that, you need to match, like supply and demand in advertising and you need to build up a user base. You need to retrain consumers in a massive way and, in fairness, we've seen seismic shifts happen for the collapse of my space, for old timers like you and me, or you know what?

Speaker 1:

yahoo was also exactly yeah remember, oh yeah, yeah, I I still. You know what I still like yahoo finance yahoo finance is good.

Speaker 2:

Shout out to yahoo, fine, yeah there's a great team.

Speaker 1:

They put together I I love I read yahoo finance often but the seismic shifts, yeah, these, these can't happen.

Speaker 1:

But but I mean I also I wouldn't challenge the bet like these other revenue streams. They're not revenue streams yet that's clear, and I've been critical of them in the past, but I'm an open-minded guy. They are bets, that's what Google calls them, and Waymo could be so fucking huge censoring that, if we need to, could be so huge that it's hard to describe. It could really take over a whole new market, Like they're actually competing with Tesla there, tesla's probably the only competitor.

Speaker 1:

And likewise with quantum computing. Yes, other people trying to crack quantum computing, highly speculative technology, but that's what we were saying about machine learning and AI not that long ago. We were waiting for the breakthrough. It always seemed like it's five to 10 years away and we just don't know. And that is going to be hard to describe.

Speaker 2:

the impact, the quantum impact, I mean, look again, I think to your point. Google has, of course, the war chest too, because the bets they're betting on autonomous driving this market alone could be way bigger than their core product if five, 10 years from now. I just don't think that they are set up the right way there.

Speaker 1:

Quantum computing You're a Tesla maxi Come on, that's not fair.

Speaker 2:

No, I think from the approach to autonomous driving.

Speaker 2:

Disclosure statement he owns Tesla, yeah exactly Disclosure here, no, but look, I think the approach is just the wrong one and that the rate of scale is just. If we're really talking about that and I don't know how big the probability is, but I think it's the first time ever that we discuss about probabilities yeah, that their core product, paid search, uh can be truly disrupted now, and the reason is, the reason is not because of perplexity or bing is way better. No, I mean, I think google still is the best product in the framework we're operating in right now. But ai is happening and what I just don't see with google and I love google, I know so many people at Google, a great company. We've given them a lot of shit if needed but what I just don't see is that they approach the AI game with this boldness Google has had in the past.

Speaker 2:

And this shift in, let's say, the economics and the frame Google is operating in this is changing dramatically and I don't know if Google is adapting with enough boldness. And there are competitors out there who are certainly playing the eye game, embedding it into a search product. They do it significantly better than Google. That's why I think that there is a certain risk that google they are still the biggest player in the market, even from, let's say, five, six, seven years down the line. But the question is, are they still as clearly dominating the game as they do today? And I I think there's a real chance that we will look at different metrics, let's's say, in five to 10 years, can you? I mean, do you see a point here? Or is it like Chris, you're full of shit?

Speaker 1:

This is not going to happen. No, I get what you're saying, but I don't think that Google search is going to get disrupted. I think that search will see a secular decline and we'll see how steep that is, and that's a problem for sure. But a secular decline is different than a disruption. I think there's just too much demographic momentum and I think that it's not there's. You know, the scopes are a bit different between AI and search and I don't think that search is just going to go away overnight. I think it'll take. I think it'll take longer.

Speaker 1:

And so the other thing like you talk, okay, the, the challengers. They're willing to move fast and break things. That's clear. Google, are they being bold enough or are they being just as bold as they need to be? Like they don't want to bump the table, they don't want to blink just because perplexity does something. If, if they react to that too much, then they blink, makes, makes, makes sense, like they're right now, they're going to focus on monetizing what's next so that they can have a clear bridge and if, if you know, if there is a secular decline in search behavior and the ad revenue associated with that, they're going to offset that in the new rising tendency, so I just think that they can do this. I believe them.

Speaker 2:

I think it's not a matter of belief. I think it's a matter of weighing in on probabilities and, again, their channel point. Fate of Google itself. I mean that there's even a point to discuss about. It shows that something is going on which hasn't point fate of Google itself. I mean that there's even a point to discuss about. It shows that something is going on which hasn't been going on 10 years ago, right? So I think it's all about probabilities. If, gun to my head, I think Google is still the big dog in the field of paid search, I think the probability is very, very high. However, I think there's also a certain probability that there will be a new competition. Google will have to fight way harder to secure that 20% growth rate and I think we'll see some hits in the profitability because CapEx has to massively increase if they want to keep up with highly disruptive players. Yeah, I think you're a fan of perplexity, right?

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

They're playing a different game. I fully understand. So I think it's just time will tell. And, ladies and gents, this was now a straw man, steel man section. I mean, we just wanted to be somehow controversial. It was not hard to argue against Google, but I think we have fair points here that the game for Google will be at least more challenging.

Speaker 1:

Can we explain that? That's clear, that's clear.

Speaker 2:

That's all I wanted to achieve, mate.

Speaker 1:

Shaking my hand on that for the people listening. Listen, mate, hold on, I'm going to win. With one last word. I think the biggest bearish tendency against Google has nothing to do with the markets or any market-driven force or anything happening with innovation or competition. The biggest thing is completely artificial and it's regulation. That's what I think.

Speaker 1:

So, you think so, you think you think I. I think the biggest threat to them is that they're forced. Yeah, it's, it's, it's a, it's becoming a bit of a fight, but they'll be forced to fight it with the one hand tied behind their back got it, and so you.

Speaker 2:

You think that the competitive landscape won't change to a degree that that google is is truly looking at a true competition, and that this itself means a certain disruption to what Google has to do in order to stay on the top, because that alone would be a massive game changer to what Google has been operating in. Right, they had no competition, and rightfully so. They're clearly the best company in the world, rightfully so. But that's where I think we have a new dynamic. And, by the way, last thing, at the end of the day, this is a great thing because Google has probably still the smartest people in the world. If they are pressured the right way, I think we will see some big moves from Google and we will benefit from it. Right, all of us. But this competitive argument lands with you.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, I mean from a competition standpoint to me, I imagine.

Speaker 2:

Give me something, Mike Give me something.

Speaker 1:

Listen, I imagine let's just say perplexity because they've gone. They've shipped features in this direction, but just imagine that there is a and it flies under the radar. There's like a consumer app. I really like it. I really because so much of AI is not productized to the degree that it could be or should be, but like a really proper AI shopping assistant. And this app is going viral through word of mouth and how valuable and awesome it is to use. It's going up to number one in the charts and they're also throwing tons of ad money at it to support that virality and, like, in a short period of time, google's e-commerce ad revenue or something gets hollowed out. Or just as an example, or their travel or whatever, like. I think there are scenarios and they could. They would be caught really off balance. I think they're. This would be an example of a disruption that could really hurt them more than the overall trend to their search volume.

Speaker 1:

But hollowing out these important pockets of gold that are in there Makes sense.

Speaker 2:

And again where I because, of course, I have to give you something as well. Thank you, of course. Yeah, strom and Steelman, man, man, I love to be controversially but, mate, the one thing which which absolutely is is supporting the case that google will will stay clearly on top is how much you're embedded in in our everyday lives, especially in in new, undeveloped e-commerce markets yeah, I think we briefly talked about that. Right, Google Maps, India. Right, Everyone is using Google Maps, so Google is already it's. You said mental.

Speaker 1:

Mental availability or mental real estate, whatever Google is there.

Speaker 2:

So I don't know how big the watch list of perplexities, or even Microsoft to disrupt that. So I think from that perspective, there's a strong case. Yeah, good conversation, good discussion. Yeah, good conversation, good discussion, yeah.

Speaker 1:

What do we?

Speaker 2:

agree on now.

Speaker 1:

We agree that the market is changing. The market is changing, yeah, and it's not in Google's favor.

Speaker 2:

Google is well positioned to adapt accordingly. Yeah, but there are certain risks which are completely new to Google.

Speaker 1:

It's not like when they launched. You know, android like the market chain. The last time there was this big of a disruption to me, or of a huge technological trend, it was mobile computing or smartphones, and Google was the challenger. There was pure opportunity for them. Apple was in the defending position and Google enabled a whole new category through the Chrome browser or, excuse me, through the Android, ios, which in turn, by the way, was very supportive of their search business and so on, and their browser business. But now they're in rather the position of Apple this time.

Speaker 2:

Okay, yeah, makes sense. Makes sense, we'll see. However, I love the discussion and we should discuss more often on the podcast. For sure, always a pleasure.

Speaker 1:

Likewise, likewise, we got one more topic, chris.

Speaker 2:

One more topic, a big one. I can't remember when, was it Three weeks, two weeks, four weeks, I don't know Recently.

Speaker 1:

Liberation Day yes.

Speaker 2:

Liberation Day, trump, yeah, full on Tariffs, the most Tariffs. The most beautiful word in the dictionary, or second most, according to Trump, by the way yeah.

Speaker 2:

I'm not a big fan of tariffs, mate. I think economically. I think there are strong arguments that this. I don't know if there's any positive net effect whatsoever. I personally think that it's not supporting the US economy in any way, shape or form, but maybe there is a discussion about that. One thing is for sure it doesn't help all partners of the US right Europe, I mean every country will suffer from that. One question we would like to dig into is do these tariffs, or what impact?

Speaker 2:

let me put it this way what impact do these tariffs have on e-commerce and maybe specifically on buying behavior? Right, I assume there is an impact. Do you have some numbers for us?

Speaker 1:

Yeah. So I think there's a couple of like what impacts it has on e-commerce? There's a multitude of impacts also, especially for like brands and manufacturers, because it's not so simple for them to just be made in America or stuff like that. They're trying oftentimes and also, yeah, but there are just we live in a globalized world and their supply chain is affected too. But I wanted to look at some numbers from eMarketer and this was from February 2025. So things change all the time, even by the time this podcast episode publishes. You know, trump, this is a moment in time. This is like a fly in amber in Jurassic Park or something like that. This is a moment in time, but right now tariffs are high.

Speaker 2:

High.

Speaker 1:

High and this February research is, by the way, already old when we're talking, but I think it's very interesting. I'm, by the way, already old when we're talking, but I think it's very interesting. I'm, by the way, not a huge e-marketer fan. I love to criticize them and their analyses, but it's data they talk about. This is a survey. This is self-reported how consumers expect that tariffs will change their shopping habits, that tariffs will change their shopping habits, and 41% of consumers self-report that they'll look for sales or coupons to offset price increases. So obviously that affects your discounting strategy and your margins and what's happening at your e-commerce business, and I agree with that part of the survey completely. And, by the way, this is also not necessarily something against eMarketer, but this is actually more against. Do people accurately predict their own behavior? I don't think so, because 30% expect that they'll buy fewer imported goods and also 26% think that they'll switch to US-made alternatives. And I don't believe those numbers for a second, to be honest.

Speaker 1:

I hate to say it but I think price is absolutely the bottom line, especially if we enter a recessionary environment because of these changes and things are so, so cheaply produced in China that even in the face of tariffs it could still be cheaper to buy Chinese.

Speaker 2:

Yes, and Look at the success of Timo right. I mean price is the one predictor.

Speaker 1:

Exactly and and and. As I was just saying, like supply chains in the U S for made made in U S alternatives, it's it's very hard to actually have a product that was only made in the U S, and those products, the price of those products is way higher and will also increase, and so I don't think that people are actually going to be buying exports or, excuse me, imports less, or buying US-made stuff more often. I think that's what they think they'll do.

Speaker 2:

Yes.

Speaker 1:

But in the end I just believe that.

Speaker 2:

But to your point, I think, don't trust humans in their buying behavior. To your point, I think, don't trust humans in their buying behavior, especially not in the prediction of buying behavior. We're highly irrational people.

Speaker 1:

Or in this case, maybe we're highly rational because but, I think, we're rather irrational in our buying behavior.

Speaker 2:

Yes, yes, but one thing is for sure the price is the one predictor to look at here, and I'm with you. I think the price gap probably will get. It will get closer to maybe US-made or Europe-made products, but I think the gap is big enough that Chinese products are still cheaper. That's why I think that's not even the big discussion here. The bigger discussion for me is, if we zoom out a bit, is that the tariffs, and I don't know man how many people, the average buyer who is interested in tariffs, no one right.

Speaker 2:

No one knows the average tariff rate. No, they just read the news. The news are creating, for sure, negative sentiment. Stock markets are suffering and I think this creates this, this, this negative market set which, first and foremost, will hit the e-commerce market and anecdotally evidence these. Tariffs certainly impact my shopping behavior and I'm not discriminating Chinese products against Europe products. It's just something which creates negative sentiment, uncertainty about the future of our economy. That's why certain purchases are just put on hold and I think this will going to happen and this will impact the e-commerce market.

Speaker 2:

And I talked also to some high Google X, xx last couple of weeks. I'm especially worried about Germany in particular. Germany in general is already suffering from a very, very negative sentiment, market sentiment. Now the tariffs are coming on top. I think this amplifies the whole thing and I see it across our client base. It will get tougher to defend market share because the market gets smaller, because people will be more conscious about certain purchases. So I think the tariffs play into this, but I think the tariffs are not one reason why shopping behavior changes from one day to another. Is this a fair point?

Speaker 1:

Yeah, it's totally a fair point. And, by the way, you mentioned people waiting or holding off or stuff. Like the same survey said, 22% of consumers expect to delay purchases at least until things stabilize. But you know, we just went through a couple of years of high inflation and it's just the same but different. You know, it feels like it's just getting. It's just the world is getting expensive fast and it's very challenging for consumers. This gets into the whole topic about what will it take for wages to match and stuff like that. Absolutely.

Speaker 2:

And I think, as a retailer, if you have to accept this somehow negative market segment. Trump is certainly putting some fuel into the engine of this negative market segment. Trump is certainly putting some fuel into the engine of this narrative market sentiment and I think he's highly underestimating the impact on this terrorist short, mid and long term. But let's see how our consistency is. Maybe everything has already changed to the better. But one thing which I also think will be a massive, massive impact, not on buying paper, but on impacting basically the strategy of online retailers, and I think we'll talk about it in one of our next episodes. I think profitability will be sexy again and I think this pure growth focus a lot of retailers had for the last couple of years.

Speaker 2:

I think profitability will be a first-class citizen again, this pure growth focus a lot of retailers had for the last couple of years. I think profitability will be a first-class citizen again and it will become way more important and advertising strategies has to circle around this profitability idea way more in the near future.

Speaker 1:

I definitely co-sign that. I co-sign that.

Speaker 2:

But you know what, whenever you co-sign, this makes me proud, mate.

Speaker 1:

I love it but yeah, maybe we'll. But, chris, maybe we'll mix up, maybe like when we talk profit, I don't know.

Speaker 2:

I'll just take the bear position just yes, yes, let's, because it was hard to argue against Google. It was really hard. I did my best.

Speaker 1:

Next episode we could do don't make me argue against profit. Yes, we tried. You can't possibly yes we tried, we tried.

Speaker 2:

Ladies and gents, next episode, mike will be against profitability and for pure growth strategy. Let's go for it. You have to be prepared.

Speaker 1:

All right, you hold on.

Speaker 2:

All right?

Speaker 1:

Well, I think that's. We'll leave it on that one, something for you folks to look forward to. Thanks for chatting with me.

Speaker 2:

As always, a pleasure. Thank you, Mike.

Speaker 1:

Thanks for watching Growing E-Commerce. If you enjoy the podcast, please recommend it to a friend, a coworker. Whoever Give us a rating on iTunes Not iTunes, that's not even around anymore, is it? I don't know, Give us a rate on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, Spotify. This podcast is produced by Smarter E-Commerce To. This podcast is produced by Smarter e-commerce. To learn more, visit smarter-ecommercecom. Thank you.