Growing Ecommerce – The Retail Growth Podcast

How OpenAI Just Lost the Ecommerce War

• Smarter Ecommerce • Season 4 • Episode 35

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In this episode of Growing Ecommerce, Mike Ryan and Chris Scharmueller break down the latest shifts in the battle for AI dominance and the future of online shopping.

We analyze the quiet death of OpenAI's Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP). With major tech giants—including ACP co-founder Stripe, as well as Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon—joining Google's Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) Tech Council, we explore what this consensus means for the future of e-commerce standards and why these companies chose to back Google's infrastructure over ChatGPT.

We also look at where ChatGPT's outbound traffic is actually going. With 20% of its e-commerce referrals landing on Amazon—and roughly 30% of its overall referrals directing users right back to Google or YouTube—we question the long-term impact on user experience and whether OpenAI is just feeding the monopolies it is trying to disrupt.

Plus, we cover Google's rollout of "AI mode" to Chrome users in the US, featuring a new side-by-side browsing experience, and discuss the looming threat of mass arbitration facing Google in the wake of its 2024 antitrust loss.

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Intro

SPEAKER_00

Welcome to another episode of Growing E-Commerce. We've got an exciting agenda for you today. We'll be talking about AI mode rolling out to Chrome, some exciting partners joining the UCP Tech Council, and why that means RIPACP. Amazon is capturing 20% of Chat GPT e-commerce referrals. And last, mass arbitration in the wake of Google's 2024 antitrust loss. I'm one of your hosts, Mike Ryan. And with me.

SPEAKER_01

Chris, yeah. Oh, sorry, man. I was closing my eyes and because the this agenda is it's it's packed, man. And I love the RIP ACB thing. Yeah. It's it's it's it's massive. Yeah. Great topics, Mike.

SPEAKER_00

Sure. Where should we start? Do you want to start with AI?

SPEAKER_01

Let's start to roll with AI mode rolling out to Chrome.

Google's AI Mode Rolls Out to Chrome: Analyzing Side-by-Side Browsing.

SPEAKER_00

All right. Yeah. So that's rolling out to um Chrome users in the US and other US only? Yeah, I believe so. I mean, at time of recording, you never know how fast I want to pace it, but other regions will follow. Yeah. The usual. The usual. We're never first in line.

SPEAKER_01

Austria is yeah, I'm never first in line. Uh for many obvious reasons. We're just a very small country. However, we love Google. Yes. Sometimes. Except for when we all right. But Mike, uh let's shed some light on this. What what what what is it? And uh is is it done the right way from our perspective? Yes.

SPEAKER_00

Uh well, I think it's a massive moment in the history of AI mode. It will definitely be. Um, you know, we're gonna talk about antitrust later on in the episode. This could maybe end up in an antitrust in the future. But uh Google has been aggressively pushing AI mode through their Google search, um you know, all their users that they have there. All streets will yeah, all roads lead to AI mode. Yes. Um and you know, recently that's looked like you start almost any informational query or query whatsoever. There's going to be an AI overview. And as soon as you interact with that AI overview at all, you're inside of AI mode. Exactly. As well as AI mode being embedded in their search bar, on their homepage, and everything else. But another one of their big ways of accessing the market is Google Chrome, which um is the most dominant browser. It's a huge adoption on mobile phones as well. And so this is another way, another kind of another road. Yeah, another vector, another road uh to bring people to um AI AI mode, and that's why it's gonna be big.

SPEAKER_01

And what happened there um precisely? So what what's what's the feature? Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

To to start off with, they're doing this uh side-by-side browsing, which is pretty cool, I think. Um so this is basically means that when you're in AI mode, um, if you want to if you click on a result, um it actually I think increases the likelihood that people will click on results when they get used to this experience. Instead of opening in a new tab, uh it's gonna open in a pane parallel. And so now you have your AI mode chat experience, and next to it you have this this content that you've clicked on. Um and there's any number of applications of that right there. Yeah. That's fucking awesome.

SPEAKER_01

I mean, let's let's let's let's face it. It's cool. I mean, we talked about that uh uh a couple of days before. And we take this for granted again. That's why I said mm we we love Google most of the times, and and when when it's due, we we are critical with them. But this this is another very seamless move. Yeah. It seems to me that AI mode is just adopted naturally. Yeah. And and it's not forced, it's just driving user experience and and and client value. Because it's a quite a powerful thing. If I could imagine you you you you do your search in AI mode, you get the results, you jump to a landing page, and then I can again use AI mode to ask anything about the website I'm on. Exactly. Yeah. For for the specific information I'm most interested in. So this feels natural. Yeah. It's like a shopping assistant to a certain degree.

SPEAKER_00

I I think it builds a lot, I think it's it just goes in multiple directions here because I can just imagine that like maybe I'm not sure about what the AI just told me, and I click on their source and then I can verify what it's like. It's validated, yes. Absolutely. And then so I think it helps with verification. And then, yeah, as you said, you can ask further questions. Like in their uh blog post where they announced this, um, Google provided a couple of different examples. And at first, of excuse me. The first use case they brought up was shopping, a shopping use case. Why did I know that, man? Of course, of course it was. Then they they have like a use case for students, probably another big demographic, and where they compete with OpenAI a bit with students, I'm sure. And they have, I don't remember, something else as well. But shopping is at the top of the list. Yeah.

How AI Mode Could Increase Conversion Rates for Retailers.

SPEAKER_01

By the way, and and the the use case we talked about uh uh now is it it it's it's again, it's it's it's a very logical one. And I think it will drive client value. Yeah, I'm looking forward to that feature when it's when it when it's launched in Austria. And by the way, one maybe even positive side effect is I think it it it will maybe increase also. I'm lit literally think that this is one outcome, is it might increase conversion rates, um, maybe even significantly, because even shitty websites can now be made you know usable if you just use the i mode for information attraction uh extraction, whatever. Yeah, exactly. Might be a very positive side effect for for the online retailer.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I mean I think it's another reason to invest in your landing page content because you know imagine you some someone lands on your product landing page rather than a user scrolling down your landing page, searching for information. Um maybe it's hidden in an image slide or whatever, but uh you can just ask the AI mode questions about it. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

The data has to be there in a structured way. Yeah. Um I I assume, else it's it's it will not be accessible. But uh it it probably will help a lot, yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah. I mean uh it's uh it's hard to say too, because I guess it still has its model. Like in theory, you could ask a question about the product that you're seeing and it could then also search and find out. That's true. We'll have to see more about how it works. But um you know it offers a stream because you can then discover a product and open that pane parallel and actually check out on that website there.

SPEAKER_01

By the way, this is now This is even the the be the best solution with online retail because I can get information from other sources, yeah, which I don't even have. Yes, but still I'm attractive to the client for whatever reason, maybe it's the price point. I'm not leaving the website anymore. I just get the information somewhere else.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, but a checkout on my website. Exactly. But it can go to, you know, they can also have their genetic checkouts built in. We have to see how, where, because this is just a starting point. And there's other neat little features in there too, like you can, you know, you can add sources um to the AI, like a PDF or an image or whatever. Well, you can also um add other tabs in your browser, it'll have access to that. Um and I like this as a kind of a a middle ground between full agentic browsing and stuff like that, because you determine which context you want to have. It's not that it has permission, it's just reading all your tabs all the time or stuff like that.

SPEAKER_01

And I think, and very, very smart people work at Google, I think that's how maybe they even see it, right? Yeah. It's it's the the first step in in in into that Atlantic direction, Atlantic future. The human is way more in the loop, but you still have yeah, the full power of AI mode. I I really like that. I I like it a lot.

SPEAKER_00

Me too. I'm I'm enthusiastic about it. Um so I mean, I think this is gonna bring a lot of scale to AI mode in general. Um there's going to be shopping use cases here. Yes. And we'll see how they develop the features further, because they can really build in the end. Yeah. Once they've once the UCP integration goes further, they can build super cool user experiences in there as well.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, uh Google, that's that's a great idea, and I'm really curious about it. Any just one last question before we jump to the next topic. Uh US only for now, yeah. But we have no clue what what what the rollout strategy is.

SPEAKER_00

No, no information there. Um I don't think so. Maybe there's documentation about that, but I haven't seen something. Okay. We'll see. Um but um we could look at past rollouts to get a clue. Yeah. I I mean I think another reason that they do this um is that um it partly these are language models, and I know that uh they're you know, I think the easiest thing for them to do is serve English language just because there's so much English language content in the training data. Um and I I've I do believe that's one of the reasons why. Um makes perfect sense.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. Mike, R I P A C P. Yeah. We talked about OpenVI the last episode as well.

SPEAKER_00

Was it the last one?

RIP ACP: Why the Tech Giants (Including Stripe) Joined Google's UCP Tech Council.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. I think so. And we're not too positive about them. No, yeah. We've we've talked, you know, we've talked about their ads. Are we the only ones who are critical with with OpenVI? Because I I watch a lot of um YouTube videos and read a lot of articles about them. Even our CTO, it seems to be that there are a lot of people are very bullish on on OpenVI. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Uh that certainly is not a bullish piece of information. No, it's not. Like we've talked about their e-commerce challenges in the past, and uh their advertis- I mean, their their advertising has potential, let's say, okay? But it has upside. Um but their e-commerce has been a major sticking point so far. Um and there's uh uh another little tiny problem here. We talked about the war of the protocols in the past, and I would say that war is decisively ended. Has it ever has it even begun that at all time? I'm just wondering. Hardly. I mean basically they put out their ACP. It generated a lot of headlines. Google looked at that and said, that's cute. But uh we actually know something about e-commerce. Um, so here's what you should have built.

SPEAKER_01

So yeah, it was it was it it was I mean, we we know that Amazon at least was thinking about creating their own protocol, but never, I know, started to buy at least. I don't remember details too much. No, me neither, but I I I can remember that it ran something monitored. But it was ACP versus UCP pretty much pretty much, yeah.

SPEAKER_00

And now, man, break the news because I I honestly I couldn't believe it. Yeah, well, I first realized this because I got an email from Microsoft saying that they had joined um UCP. And I was like, that's big news, but then that was just their little press release. Then I saw the real press release, and it wasn't only Microsoft. Um Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce, and You can't believe this. Oh it it hurts, but also I feels kind of good. Stripe, Stripe joined. Which was basically kind of the co-founding party of ACP. Yeah, it was OpenAI and Stripe who who founded the ACP protocol. And that's so they've just walked away pretty much. That's really it's it's really big. And even we talked in a recent episode that Meadow was showing some signs of interest in ACP, but Meadows on this list.

SPEAKER_01

Because for their more or less agencing uh purchasing feature, right? They were even going with ACP, uh, I think already planned to go with ACP. Yeah. And we've because we were wondering, okay, it's not even that agentic, why do you're using the protocol? Yeah, exactly. Yeah. The reason why they went with ACP, I'm talking about Meta was because we assumed don't go with the UCP thing, because that's that's from the major competitor we have, which is Google. Yeah. But can you imagine? This is what I'm wondering, and probably you don't know it, Mike, but I ask you anyway, because you know more about that uh than than I do for sure, about that thing. Can you imagine how how big of a difference in technical capability, value proposition? Yeah. There has to be that all of these big ones now join the Google party.

unknown

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

And Google is the major competitor to most of them.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I mean, these these companies all compete with each other fundamentally. Meta for sure.

SPEAKER_01

Microsoft for sure. Microsoft ads at least.

SPEAKER_00

What what what do you think was I mean, we can only speculate here, but I mean at the end of the day, the the I like the premise here is that this is infrastructure. And so, you know, uh this is ultimately this happens in every industry where there's going to be a standard like people, competitors all rally around um USB-C, except for Apple, or they finally kind of had to. Um you know, competitors in mobile carrier, I you know, 5G won out that standard, or whatever the case might be. So if it's actually going to be the standard in any meaningful way, then there's an air of inevitability that all these competitors will be in there. I mean, the risk would be that there would be this kind of balkanized effect and there'd be a million standards, and no one wants that idea. Okay. I I got this.

SPEAKER_01

I got this. But I have a false stripe, right? I mean they were they were busy co co-founding, driving, driving the ACP thing.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah. Well, I they you know what? I think I think it's a great decision that they made. I think they looked at it, they said, are we gonna continue investing our money and time in this? Something which leads nowhere. Yeah, this UCP standard actually looks great. It will take how much how long will it take us to catch up with that? And by the way, we this has no momentum. Yeah like they just pulled the plug and they moved on.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, but I I fully understand uh understand the decisions of these these great companies. I'm just saying that the it it had to be a very, very logical decision. It had to be super clear for them that it it's the better way, the better option to go with UCP. Yeah, UCP is way better. It is way better. Um any risks? I mean, we briefly talked about that uh also a couple of days before, but I'm just wondering, any risks for for these Google competitors to to join a Google standard basically now?

The Consensus Play: What the UCP Tech Council Means for the Protocol War.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah. Um I mean uh the way like I think that because this is the UCP Tech Council that they're joined. And so this is uh somehow consensus-oriented uh yeah. It they're see they're all seated at a table together. And I think that Google is still at the head of that table. Yeah. And Google's also um the furthest ahead on integration so far. And um and there's a lot of their branding bound up with it and so on. But the reality is that these others all have a seat at the table now, too. And and uh there are probably like in the past we said that this looks poised to massively support Google's walled garden, and I still think that there are many elements in which that is true. Yeah, we have to see part like I mean, yeah, Meta, Microsoft, these are competitors, but of everyone, I think the the most dangerous there is Amazon, because you know what Google was really doing here was talking about building a parallel marketplace or parallel parallel infrastructure of marketplace. That that Amazon is not a part of. But now the question is what will Amazon do? And you know, um how is it are they really here in a collaborative sense or are they and you know, or they have the typical Bezos mindset? Maybe they have a veto no and they just veto the shit out of this tech council.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. Um it's look, I mean, and maybe we are too positive about Google. We we we should be we should we should have a critical uh call uh content piece the next time about Google. Uh for me this is another power move. It's yeah. Can you imagine how I mean this this probably were absolutely high stack negotiations or at least conversations, you know, in back end.

SPEAKER_00

I mean this was this was this was what did you when we're talking about this earlier, what did you say? This was orchestrated. Yeah. Because I mean it was a it was a press release. These are all look at the market cap of all these companies. Um the war for standards is over. And they made this announcement, you know, they could have trickled this out. I don't guess. They waited.

SPEAKER_01

They waited for the big bang.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, totally. They they got everyone on board and then decisive. There you go. So fascinating shit, mate, honestly.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. I was blown away.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I thought the protocol wars were interesting, but I'm actually now way more excited to see that next. As we said, when we first talked about this, we said this is like Google's biggest project that they've helmed since uh privacy sandbox, which was a disaster. And we said, you know, that this is not permitted to be a disaster. Yeah um so far, very positive momentum that it has For sure. Um another open AI topic Amazon is capturing of e-commerce referrals, yeah, in in Chat GPT in the US. So just to talk about this quick yeah, quickly.

ChatGPT's Referral Problem: Why Amazon is Capturing 20% of E-commerce Traffic.

SPEAKER_01

I mean just to unpack it. Yeah. Again, I'm I'm certainly um not not that knowledgeable. Um and I'm probably uh zoom out sometimes a bit more because I'm I'm not that that much into this technique stuff. But if if I was chat GPT and 20% of my all wall referrals come from one c one client. Uh and by the way, this is not including uh the other, let's say five biggest ones, Walmart comes comes to my mind. Yes, yeah. Let's say you have 50% of your refer referrals created by what is it? Let's say five to ten players. Yeah, yeah, I'm sure. That that's that's not a good thing. At least in my world. Yeah. Uh you you got no risk diversification. Uh diverse in terms of also for for the end consumer, you know what w what get us shown in in terms of results, what I'm looking for. Yeah. It's and it makes this whole thing kind of small. Yeah. I mean, can you imagine I don't know, uh, Google has has that kind of risk with with one client? Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

I yeah, I mean Google, yeah, totally. Google has these I think the equivalent would be like Google has um some very large advertisers and they have, by the way. Which can become you know stakeholders at a certain point. Years back they they were they admitted that they were tweaking uh eBay's visibility based on conversation based on demands more or less from eBay. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

But um, what is your take on this?

SPEAKER_00

Well, I definitely focus on the user experience. I mean, there's so many ways to look at this because like it's 20% of what is one of the questions. Uh because I I I these are outbound clicks, you know, from from Chat GPT. And that is not the average user experience. Most people actually have a zero-click experience, which we've talked about in the past, all the zero click stuff. Um but you know, when they do click 20% of the time, and it's e-commerce, 20% of the time, it's Amazon. I don't know what to make of that. Um is it because they because of Amazon's brand power and br and and Amazon has a higher click-through rate than the rest? What is it all about? Is it because open AI is just citing Amazon way more? Because Amazon has good content or whatever the case might be. There's a lot to wonder about behind there.

SPEAKER_01

But is OpenAI I don't know, about prioritizing Amazon results for whatever reason? Yeah. Maybe that was an option.

SPEAKER_00

No, we've seen we've seen that like, you know, the visibility of YouTube can can suddenly mat or the amount that YouTube has cited has sometimes gone up or down. They definitely make these tweaks.

SPEAKER_01

I I just saying because that that's how how I see it. And I I don't know for sure because we we don't have the details, but from this user experience, if if 20 or let's say uh worst case, 50% of my referrals are happening from a chat GPT perspective, are happening through five merchants. Yeah. What does this mean for the results the end consumers get shown? Yeah. How much how much diversified content is shown to me when I'm using ChatGPT? I mean I'm like in it it's it's a crazy stat, honestly.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, it I mean, and this is exactly why Google in their ad auction system, they have ad rank to try to um dampen or counteraffect the the visibility of very large advertisers. They try it at least. Yeah, yeah. They do it to a certain extent. Um that was we're gonna talk about antitrust, and I came, they were even switching positions of some advertisers because they were too dominant. Um and it happened, you know, they they there are gonna be big players and dominant players, but you need to balance the user experience. And yeah, it's a question of if that's a balanced user experience. I actually think that this is an area where uh it could be a kind of a bull case for ads, because the fact of the matter is there's not much outbound clicks occurring at all. And you as an average business are probably getting very little out of this. And so if you do want that visibility in those clicks, ads would be a good way to do that. And Sam Altman thinks that ads are evil. We've talked about this, but this could actually improve the amount of selection or variety or options that consumers get presented with. Like ads are not always the devil.

SPEAKER_01

None of Especially if you have a burn rate of a couple millions, yeah. But uh okay, that that's quite interesting. And another thing, Mike, uh because uh that that's how at least that's how I understood it. There's also a crazy number of how much of the overall referrals land somewhere which is maybe not in favor for open AI, right? Yeah.

The Bigger Threat: 30% of ChatGPT's Overall Referrals Go to Google and YouTube.

SPEAKER_00

That would that would concern. If I would be OpenAI. That's more concerning. Yeah, that's more concerning. Okay, let's talk about that. What is it? So I uh now have to double check that number, but I believe it was also right about 20%. And so 20% of e-commerce referrals are going to Amazon. 20% of all referrals, because e-commerce is just a subset, 20% of all referrals go to Google. Yes. Google. Here it comes again. Another like 10 to 15% go to YouTube, which is also Google.

SPEAKER_01

It's also Google. And the crazy thing is, and of course, we don't know uh that the e-commerce share of that 20% ending up with Google or YouTube. Maybe it's even 30% if we combine YouTube and Google. And this is where the magic happens then, probably, right? Yeah. Because if if I'm gone from ChatGPD, I end up in Google. Whatever I'm looking for, I will do something on Google and not. This is way more concerning.

SPEAKER_00

Yes, yes. Of course. Yeah. Because then by the yeah, like the ads get sort of like the monetization ends up running through Google. The attribution ends up running through Google.

SPEAKER_01

Everything is yeah. Uh wow. Yeah, okay. Good. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So this is more concerning. I think. Yeah, yeah. Crazy stat, however. Um and we're well into the time box, but we have one one left, which is maybe not that positive for Google.

Mass Arbitration: Advertisers Seek Damages Following Google's Antitrust Loss.

SPEAKER_00

No, no, no. This is well, something had to happen here. Um and that, you know, Google lost uh some antitrust case recently, as you'll remember. Um and there was this uh they they were found to be um a surge monopoly, and they're found to be anti-competitive in their advertising or ad tech practices. And um now, now the other shoe is dropping, as we say. So the way that Google, in their terms of service, many corporations do this, not only Google, but they make it so that you cannot pursue class action. Um they'll like specify a court and stuff like that, and you have to do, you have to go through arbitration. It means that you have to do this one-on-one, and it's a special way of of uh of of having these decisions get made, these rulings get made. Um, usually the company will pay the arbitration fees. Um, there can be no appeals on the outcome. There's different parameters in place.

SPEAKER_01

It's basically Eli 5 mode, they're limiting the risk exposure.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, their assumption here is that um all these individual cases, most people won't do that. Um but then we're in the mass arbitrage year in. This is a newer it's it's a new it's a new business. Yeah. A lot of money can be made there. So um a firm has uh specialized in this particular topic and uh they're they're reaching out to thousands and thousands of advertisers and convincing them to um let them represent them in this matter. And this becomes a massive challenge to Google because instead of dealing with this with this one large antitrust, they have to deal with thousands of individual arbitrations, um, which creates a its own leverage point. Yes.

SPEAKER_01

And the leverage might be might be very, very big here. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Yes.

SPEAKER_01

And and uh the the the the the big advantage is of course it's it's orchestrated by a company which is which is specialized in in in handling these huge cases. Yes, yeah. But the the the bottom the bottom line or basically the the the the the question I'm I'm interested in most uh most in is of course uh how much substance there is to what's what's the claim here? Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, well that that's the thing. So the that's right, the claim, I mean, they're seeking damages which could amount to 200 million. Yeah. Yeah. I mean it could be a quarter of a trillion if one and um and the the basic premise is that through this anti-competitive advertising market, they could then perpetrate anti-competitive pricing. And there are some indicators of that, of course, from the trial. Um but you know it's tricky. I don't know, that's not my business of how uh what the kind of the burden of proof is here. I mean, I think in many ways the burden of proof was established by the court and they can lean on that a lot.

SPEAKER_01

And this is why this might be really dangerous. Yeah, yeah. Because it it's not coming out of the blue. There is substance to it.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah. It's piggybacking because otherwise you would need like a counterfactual or you'd need to say like my ads were like how would you want to prove it?

SPEAKER_01

Exactly. But and and and basically, I mean just just a gut feeling. Uh the basic claim is basically that you as an online retailer uh paid too I mean the CPCs you paid were too high, basically, for yeah. Um do you think that this is I mean, th there is substance to it because it has already been brought to court, but you're an expert, man. Man, what what what's your take on this? Is is might this be a real thing? Because this is something a lot of clients still ask to this day.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, yeah. Um and I yeah, I mean, uh we I think we even talked about we talked about it back then that this that this could be something that would happen. Um so yeah, I'm not a legal expert, but I think that there is a very good probability this this will be successful. Wow.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

All right. It'll take a couple, it'll take a couple years or two years. So, you know, we'll talk about it. If there are updates, we'll mention it.

SPEAKER_01

All right. Uh mate, I enjoyed the episode. Yeah, mate. We talked like always.

unknown

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Thanks, Chris, very much. I think that'll wrap it up for today.

SPEAKER_02

Let's do it.

SPEAKER_00

So thanks for listening. This has been another episode of Growing E-Commerce brought to you as always by Smarter Ecommerce, also known as SMEC. To learn more, visit Smarter-e-commerce.com. And as always, we really appreciate it. If you give us a shout out online or give us a star rating or a five star rating, plural stars, more than one star on your podcast platform of choice. Give us a thumbs up on YouTube. Everything helps. We really appreciate it. Thanks. We'll see you next time. All the best. Thanks, Chris. Bye Mike.