Growing Ecommerce – The Retail Growth Podcast

Don't Buy ChatGPT Ads Until You Watch This (Plus: The Google Cloud vs AWS Cage-Match)

Smarter Ecommerce Season 4 Episode 37

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0:00 | 28:31

In this episode of Growing Ecommerce, Mike Ryan and Chris Scharmueller dive into the much-anticipated updates to the OpenAI ads platform and break down Google's staggering Q1 earnings report.

While OpenAI has finally transitioned their ad platform from a primitive Excel spreadsheet to a proper User Interface, their highly publicized shift to a CPC model is raising major red flags. We break down the math behind their highly constrained $3 to $5 max CPC range, revealing how it mathematically equates to the exact same astronomical $60 effective CPM they originally launched with. We discuss why advertisers should demand more transparency and control before shifting their performance budgets to ChatGPT.

We also unpack Google’s unstoppable Q1 momentum. With a massive $110 billion in revenue and an 80% spike in earnings per share, Google is silencing the "death of Search" narrative. We explore their impressive 19% core Search growth, the staggering 63% surge in Google Cloud that is heavily outpacing AWS and Azure, and why Google's massive $180 billion CapEx guidance for 2026 solidifies their dominance in the AI arms race.

Key Takeaways:

• The OpenAI Ad Trap: Don't be fooled by OpenAI's new CPC bidding model. By forcing advertisers into a strict $3 to $5 CPC range, the platform is essentially maintaining its premium $60 effective CPM under a disguise. Advertisers should hold off on shifting performance budgets until real incrementality and transparency are proven.

• Search is Still Thriving: Despite the ongoing narrative that AI will kill traditional search engines, Google's core Search product grew by 19% year-over-year. The search giant's core advertising flywheel remains the most reliable engine for ecommerce growth.

• Google Cloud is Winning the AI War: Google Cloud (GCS) achieved a staggering 63% year-over-year growth, heavily outpacing Amazon AWS (28%) and Microsoft Azure (39%). Powered by deep Gemini integration and proprietary TPUs, Google’s vertical integration puts them in a unique position to dominate the next decade.

Resources & Links:

• Access all our webinars, reports, and playbooks in our Knowledge Hub: https://smarter-ecommerce.com/en/knowledge-hub/ 

• How is your industry stacking up in the market? Find out with smec’s Google Ads Benchmarks: https://smarter-ecommerce.com/en/smec-market-observer/

About Smarter Ecommerce (smec):

Smarter Ecommerce (smec) empowers e-commerce brands with AI-driven PPC automation that optimizes for profit and business outcomes while maintaining strategic control.

The platform activates first-party data - profit margins, customer lifetime value, and key business metrics - to automate campaign optimization toward goals like profitability and efficient growth, while detailed campaign insights provide full transparency and enable PPC teams to focus on strategic oversight rather than manual execution.

As a Google Premier Partner and three-time Microsoft Retail Partner of the Year, smec manages over €500 million in ad spend and drives €5B+ in annual e-commerce revenue for 350+ global retail clients including THG, Snipes, REWE, and Intersport.

Make sure to follow smec - Smarter Ecommerce for more performance marketing insights:

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Intro: OpenAI updates & Google's record earnings.

SPEAKER_01

Welcome to another episode of Growing E-Commerce. We've got an exciting agenda here for you today. We'll be talking about open AI ads updates. A favorite theme of ours on this show, right, Chris? Yes. And another favorite theme: Google earnings. How much money Google is making.

SPEAKER_00

Did they make money? Really? I think they were on the brink of having the first quarter where they have to report some losses.

SPEAKER_01

I don't know, but you told me. Yes. As always, I'm one of your hosts, Mike, and with me is Chris.

SPEAKER_00

Hey Chris.

SPEAKER_01

Great to meet you.

SPEAKER_00

Let's jump right into favorite topic is a stretch. But we we love to be realistic about Open AI. Exactly. And again, we are open to share some roses with them because there was some movement.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. I mean, that's the one thing you can say. Like, because we we've talked that their ad platform is a bit primitive and stuff like that. But we we're on this podcast every week together, and pretty much every week or every other week, you can you can talk about what open AI ads were up to. Yes.

SPEAKER_00

So credit where credit is due. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

And and I, as I said before, that's what happens when you get a bunch of Google and meta PMs and you give them nicotine products on tap and and these Chinese peptides. Do you follow that at all? I I read some of the things. Yeah, the Chinese, the Chinese peptides and everything else. All right. But so um they they uh we talked a couple of episodes ago how they were moving away from this Excel-based to a user interface, and now that's becoming much more widely available. Yes. So that's a huge milestone.

SPEAKER_00

In US only, as far as I know? Yeah. Uh as as as of the time we're speaking here. Uh and I uh we we haven't seen it in detail, but what we have read is that it's a major advancement, of course. Yeah. But again, you you you're coming I mean, if if if you start with spreadsheets, of course the user interface will feel different. Yeah. Um that that's for sure. So but yes, there is movement and there is there is progress, right? We definitely that's a statement we can make.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, absolutely.

SPEAKER_00

What do we know about it?

SPEAKER_01

Well, it's basically, you know, it's the UI version of the of the Excel sheet. It has these functions that we've talked about in the past, everything that you that you can do in there. Um you can select your bidding model in there because that's something that's changing, and we'll talk about that more in

OpenAI Ads UI: Moving on from the primitive spreadsheet.

SPEAKER_01

a second. Um you can do your your ad groups and the what there are in as way of assets, which is still limited and primitive, but it's improving too.

SPEAKER_00

Because what why why I'm asking what what's in there? So we we can we can the summary is that there's there's no fancy revolutionary shit in there. It's still quite a straightforward and limited set of functionalities. Exactly. But there's a user interface. Exactly. If this is a reason to celebrate, I don't know. Because I mean, again, you the we are talking about a very, very much red ocean. I want to remind everyone, ChatGPD is competing with the likes of Google, meta, all the other paid paid social platforms. So, yes, and of course they're they're they're far more advanced because they have started earlier. However, there's progress. There's however, there's one thing I would like to talk about in particular. Um the one limiting factor we discussed in detail a couple of episodes before was that there is only a CPM model in place. They changed it. Yeah, that's right. Kind of to a C kind of Don't spoil it. Don't spoil it. Yeah, you're right, Chris. Don't change it. They changed it. To a CPC model. And they'll be rolling out CPA as well. Yes. Hell of a thing. Because I I genuinely prefer a CPC model for performance marketing channel compared to a CPM model. Exactly. Uh but Mike, there's there are as always, there are nuances to it. Yes. Did you want to explore it a bit fast?

SPEAKER_01

Sure. So I I spoilered it a bit, but let's just spit it out. So um the way their CPC model works, quote unquote, uh, is that yeah, yeah, and uh boy, I don't want to be an open AI ads hater. Uh it's just I know that's now my my brand, but from the Timo guy to the open Open AI hater guy.

SPEAKER_00

But uh to put this in perspective, there will be I want to put this on Front Street again. We want Open AI to succeed because it's it's good for the industry. Yes. But I think it's it's with with all the hype going uh hap happening around Open AI, I think it's good that there are some people looking critically at it, and that's what we do.

SPEAKER_01

Yes. So I'm proud of this one b because uh they this was largely glossed over in all the press coverage and stuff. It was like, oh yeah, there's a CPC model that's really great. Advertisers have been asking for this, and um maybe they did or didn't mention in the the news articles and stuff that you can specify a CPC, a max CPC range from three to five bucks. Hold on.

SPEAKER_00

Uh so the CPC, so you that the CPC range is defined by default, or can I can I choose the range?

SPEAKER_01

You you can no there there's so what this will do, it will buy you as many clicks as it can. Between three and five. You know, it'll hit a saturation point basically. Okay. And you just to decide where that is. Okay. Got it.

he CPC Trap: Why OpenAI's $3-$5 CPC range is mathematically suspicious.

SPEAKER_01

And between three and five bucks. Oh, which is but this is predefined.

SPEAKER_00

It has to be to be between three and five.

SPEAKER_01

Yes.

SPEAKER_00

A whopping two dollar range. It's and it's a Yes. Because this this is where where I I mean, I I know that you have some some theories here why why it's three to five. But that's a hell of a thing.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

I mean, I I know industries where the CP CPCs in on Google are maybe even way beyond five dollars. Yeah. But on average, for a multi-brand online retailer, a CPC between three and five is is not sustainable. No. It's not even not even remotely to to to to run ads profitably in a sustainable way.

SPEAKER_01

This is exactly why I started digging into this, Chris, because the numbers are weird. It's it's it's weird. And it yeah. Okay, good. Yeah, like as you said, if you would be, if you're let's say, I don't know, I don't think there are law or legal-related ads running there right now for safety reasons and stuff, but so we could find another one. But any high order value industry. Fair enough. You know, but let's legal, but whatever. Um, there are people selling super expensive products. Yes. Um five bucks might be way too low to your point. You might, you might be seeing, you might set a Mac CPC at 20 bucks or whatever. For sure. We have these type of flavors. Sure. And then and then, but uh man, I actually did. I ah, that's so funny. I don't know if I can find this now. Um shame on me, I forgot about that. But I I looked at a very massive sample of Mac CPCs um in in Google Ads. And um, you know, it was it was like a buck or something. It was way below one. Way below for sure for sure. Yes. And and CPCs are more expensive in the US in defense. Fair enough. But the the thing here is it's a super weird range. It's very constrained, it feels very artificial. So I had to start thinking, how did they arrive at that? Why?

SPEAKER_00

Yes. Um and there's a theory. Yeah. And maybe to set the stage for you.

SPEAKER_01

Uh I love having this stage. Can will someone do my makeup too?

SPEAKER_00

I did, man. Uh the CPM model, we were talking about a couple of episodes before, was around $60, right?

SPEAKER_01

That was a launch model. It's debated whether or not those are coming down over time. Some people saying yes.

SPEAKER_00

However, but the the the the range of $60 CPM was basically the starting model. Yeah. Uh this is the stage, man. Because I I think it's important knowledge.

SPEAKER_01

It's important to know. Yeah. I just did a little uh algebra here, and uh be I didn't like algebra when I was in high school, but it comes in handy once in a while. Because you can if you you you can s quickly kind of figure out some things if you have this range. You can start to do some cross-multiplication and stuff like that. And you know what I came up with was pretty interesting because if you have a max CPC range of three to five bucks and you do the algebra, this you can do this one of two ways. You can calculate the CTR range that this corresponds to at a given CPM, or you can calculate the CPM range that this corresponds to at a given CTR. Um, and it but it doesn't matter, it comes out to a similar thing. You'll realize that this will result in a range between 1.2 and 2% click-through rate at a $60 CPM. This is a coincidence.

SPEAKER_00

It has to be.

SPEAKER_01

Or if you would take a fixed CPR CTR assumption of 1.5, a very reasonable CTR assumption, then it'll give you a range a CPM range between 45 bucks and 75 bucks, which averages to 60 bucks.

SPEAKER_00

Yes. So may may I may I state the obvious here? Go for it. And by the way, we we certainly are not certain about this because we don't know. Yeah. But it it seems like, it seems like that uh there was how how I see it. I think there was a massive backlash uh with regards to the 60 60 cpm by default recorder. You have to start running ads on Chat GPD. I think there was a massive backlash with regards to where where the heck are my CPCs? Oh, because that that's uh that's the adopted model, right?

The Algebra: How the new CPC model is just a $60 CPM in disguise.

SPEAKER_00

For most of most of the online platforms in the world. So they had to do something here, yeah. But but they derived the CPC model from the target CPM. Yes. That's the way it looks to me. And you called it a CP CPC model in disguise, right?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, or CPM.

SPEAKER_00

A CPM model in disguise.

SPEAKER_01

That's a way to how exactly to look at it. You know, the smoking gun will be when they roll a CPA, if the CPA constraints are the same. Yes, yes. And I think I'll feel pretty confident with that.

SPEAKER_00

Yes, yes, be b because it has to, uh else the the CPM range wouldn't make sense. Um I know it doesn't feel right.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. I mean and and as an ad platform that they talk about effective CPM. This is this is the way you monetize. Even Google, which is a a CPC-based platform, they're they're probably looking at they're like they want to know, they're talking about monetizing views and monetizing this is what they want to do. And I don't know how or why they arrived at an effective CPM of 60 bucks. My first thought was they just want to give it this premium feeling, it's white flix did. Yes, you know, it's um, but maybe there's an economic rationale why they have to do it. But if you have these CPM advertisers that they've onboarded, and then you start bringing in CPC advertisers and the system's not built that robust yet, you you can't let those CPC advertisers somehow undermine them, um, because which they could do if they would set a massively higher bid. And you like you they just need to protect the whole system at this point. So it again points to the fragility, and I think you you know, you get the click measurements, that's great. That's in a direction of performance and in a direction of what performance marketers will expect as opposed to brand marketers, but it still feels weird.

SPEAKER_00

It feels weird, yes. And look, I mean, what that the context we're talking about here, it for me it all circles back to the I don't know, I I call it what it is, uh uh this this cockiness that they share this $100 billion billion dollar ads revenue target within the next, I don't know, what is it, four years. Uh look, I mean, if if you if you're that ambitious, if you're that cocky about the trajectory you you want to show to the market with regards to your ads business, then of course the standards you hold to hold accountable for or uh is is is a different one. And this is what what what what rubs me the wrong way. I think it's fair enough that you start incrementally and not everything runs smoothly. Fair enough. But this is where you know this expectation gap opens up for me. Uh because a reminder to everyone that the ads business is a deeply red ocean. There's highly sophisticated players out there. Yeah. And I know the time we talk about this right now, Mike, um, in two, three weeks there will there will be improvements made. Of course, yeah. But the we're talking about a four-year time span to hit the 100 billion.

SPEAKER_01

Yes.

SPEAKER_00

So this is this doesn't come across seamlessly. And and uh I think it it's it it drops me the wrong way. Yes.

SPEAKER_01

I mean, i if it it's on the one hand, it's a moonshot vision and you can admire the ambition or stuff like that. But where I come from, I always feel like they are just fleecing their investors and and misleading their investors with statements like that. They're not a publicly traded company, so I don't know how that stuff's regulated, but it comes across the wrong way. I think the other thing that this weird model or or yeah, these these odd controls point to for me is that um,

The $100B Vision: Why advertisers should demand more before spending.

SPEAKER_01

you know, we're critical sometimes of ad rank in Google ads. It's a bit of a black box and it yeah. But ad rank and and quality score, these things that are built in Google, they have a very important function as well because they are refereeing the auction in a way that you can't to to a certain extent you can, but you can't purely just bid your way or spend your way to the top. There needs to be this relevance layer. And Google has the relevance game down pretty good. Yes. And I think OpenAI, they haven't solved that relevance relevance part of the puzzle yet. And this is an additional safeguard to keep people from just gaming the system since they don't have something in place.

SPEAKER_00

But yes. But but compared to where Google is, yeah. And uh I I I I I reiterate my my my statement here. I I really believe that the big winner uh will be Google. And in terms of will be, we we talked about that. That I think Google has an un unstoppable flywheel, but that the winner in terms of that people start to realize, hey, what we have here in Google is is is is is quite advanced shit. Yes. Um I think that's what's what's going to happen now. The more ChatGPT ads will be adopted, the more people will realize. And quite honestly speaking, uh you know that we are we are a big Microsoft partner and Microsoft has done a lot of great things. But I I have seen this in the past because Microsoft has come along, has come a long way, and I think their ads environment improved significantly. But this is where Google is winning as well, not in terms of market share, but people say, wow, this is so much more seamless. Yeah. The Google Ads account, my environment compared to Microsoft. And Microsoft is heads and shoulders above ChatGPD. Yeah. That's why I think Google is the winner here.

SPEAKER_01

I mean, I let's keep I'm again, I'm always happy to be wrong, but I think I think it's gonna be a big app ad platform as long as the company doesn't completely implode. It's gonna be big, it's gonna be relevant. It will be bigger than Microsoft ads, I think. Definitely. But that would be a huge success. No, and it will, you know, it's gonna be, it's just again, it's this hundred billion yardstick that I don't approve, I don't appreciate. And I don't I just what I really want at the end of this is that advertisers have self-respect. They're not getting in the FOMO thing. Like, yes, this is something you need to watch. There could be some early mover advantages here, but you should demand something from open AI for this. Yes. You should expect something. Yes. And you should expect more than a $60 CPM model disguised as a CPC model. Like that's not there yet. For sure. It's gonna get better, but I really want people to have self-respect when it comes to this. Open AI should be, you know, cord courting them for their budget and not the other way around. Yes. So anyway. For sure. But cool on that.

SPEAKER_00

You mentioned Google winning. Maybe the perfect segue, huh? Yeah. Google earnings. I mean, we we uh it's kind of uh off topic in terms of that we haven't been covering uh earnings calls uh for quite some time yet. We're a little late to the party as well, so yes, for sure. Uh but I think we we wanted to and there are there are other uh podcasts which which go way more into detail here. But of course, Google earnings calls are relevant for us because they reflect the commercial liability of the business uh of Google, and Google is just yes, that the most dominant player in the in the ads environment. That's why we decided to have a look at this and just derive our interpretations what what these earnings mean. Yeah. Maybe I just start very high level. Sure. And most of the people probably have heard about it. Uh the ones who who haven't no Google, there were no losses for Google in Q1. Quite the contrary. Um, the revenue was up year over year by 22%. So they crossed roughly 10 billion US dollars. Insane. That's insane. But the most insane thing, Mike, is uh that the the profit, the earnings uh per share were uh uh up 80% year by year. They have beaten the street estimates by roughly 90%. And I think that the profit was around 60 billion dollars for for Q1. And this is Did you say by 90%? Roughly 90-90%. I mean, you know, the the the street estimates you can always look at at it um uh from one way or another, but they really knocked it knocked it out of the park. And um I think look, these these are the high-level numbers, but but for me, the

Google Q1 Earnings Breakdown: $110B revenue and an 80% jump in EPS.

SPEAKER_00

most important two two very important takeaways, I think, which which we should discuss a bit here. A their core product search it's it's roaring. Yes, yeah, and I know I have been wrong one and a half years ago. Maybe we we talked about that that there's this real competition out there now. AI will disrupt this revenue stream for Google. We have been wrong, I have been wrong. Um AI is not going to kill search because Google plays it perfectly. And just to tell you some numbers, Search Another was basically the revenue section for their core product. It grew 19% the other year. Uh YouTube grew 11% the other year. Um, so their core product rewards source and is it's just a fucking cash cow. And the other thing is they are they have this second, or um, if you will, the third major revenue pillar is Google Cloud. GCS is also knocking it out of the park. It's it's it's mind-blowing. I think the gross 20 billion, but for the for me, the more important uh thing is they grew significantly more than the two other big players, which is ASUR and and and AWS. Yeah. Um almost twice twice as fast uh the growth is for Google compared to these two major competitors. These are the two major takeaways. I'm talking, we talked about this. Google has the perfect flywheel, and they do a lot of things right. Yeah. That's the high-level takeaway uh from my side. Um you you can't you can't have a better corner than this one.

SPEAKER_01

I mean until Q2 comes out. Until next quarter, yeah. Well already in the well in the middle of it. Um, yeah. I mean, I can only echo that. And just

The "Death of Search" is wrong: Core Search grows 19%.

SPEAKER_01

something that so I I love to pull up the transcripts of learning calls. Um they are very telling. Yes. And because when you listen, that's one thing. But when you have those words on the page in front of you, at least for me, for me, for someone like me, it's a whole other resource. Um, because you can really like um I I always I I just I love skimming through there. I'll do my command F and jump around the page looking for keywords. Like I can just type in AI max and find out how many times they mentioned it, where they mentioned it, whatever I want to find out what they're talking about now. What did you find out? Well, what I found was that um they I would love actually I should repeat this exercise for just like, I don't know, two years ago or looking back a bit, but they talked so little about advertising at all compared to some of the other stuff. Um and e commerce was quite present, but it was in the form of UCP, which was mentioned more than ads, UCP was. Um and agentic purchasing. So they're very focused on this. And it won't be a surprise to you. I actually made a I just downloaded their transcript as a PDF and had AI make a word cloud out of it. Word clouds are one of those things. I always feel like they're so cheesy. But sometimes they're they can be really informative too. But uh I mean, no surprise. AI was the single most frequent thing that they said in the call. Gemini second? Gemini. And then it's the cloud business. Search and cloud. Searching. Actually, cloud was mentioned slightly more than search, but uh comparable amounts. But they're just they're just hammering home these themes. And even something like I I think probably still a lot of people don't know what a TPU is. But TPUs was mentioned way more than any of than the word ads. They talked about TPUs. No surprise there. Yeah, well, in the context, yeah. It's it's very important right now. So I think it's it's a super fascinating moment in time. It's it shows you how much a next quarter of the focus could, you know, I think they pick their themes and stuff like that, but it's just crazy that the business is evolving in that direction. Yeah. And again, they are the other two a couple of words that they use a lot, they they are always either saying something's new or something's continuing. Those are the things that they hit new, continuing, new, continuing. Um, because they need to show that they're innovating and that things are stable. Yes. And but in general, you just see that uh um this Sigenti Commerce is and everything about this is is a huge bet for them. And one thing that ties it all together to me that Sundar said, he was talking about UCP and all the partners that they got on recently. We talked about that a couple weeks back. And he said that for him, UCP is all about cloud. Yeah. And he then he said, and TPUs for him, he said this phrase basically twice. He said TPUs for him are all about cloud. Yes. And so you can see the direction that this is going.

SPEAKER_00

Yes. Um and just talking about cloud, uh, just to provide provide some numbers, uh, Q Q1 revenue, uh, that these three dominant players, AWS, Amazon, Azure, Microsoft, and Google, GCS, Google Cloud. Um, market share-wise, AWS is still leading with roughly 30 uh 37 uh billion in Q1, 20% uh 28% um year-by-year growth. 34 billion revenue is uh Azure, uh second in terms of revenue uh share. 39% year of year growth. Significant. Yeah. Google at 20 billion, but with a whooping 63% year of year growth. And this uh circles back to one of the link at LinkedIn um statements uh posts I had like half a year ago, where I said wherever you look at at Google, there there is a flywheel in place because the cloud business is is soaring from my perspective because uh it's driven by Gemini and and all the related products they have here. And Gemini is is is is soaring because it's seamlessly embedded into the ads ecosystem, into the Google workspace. They they do so many things right, it's really fascinating to look

The Cloud Wars: Google Cloud crushes AWS and Azure growth rates.

SPEAKER_00

at. Yes, and it and again, we are for sure no uh no no Google fanboys, quite the contrary. We were accused of of being way too critical with Google. But this, yeah, where they are at right now, holy shit. Yes, yeah, holy shit. Uh as we speak, uh this week we had uh Google at uh uh uh in in our Vienna office and they showed us uh uh certain things about um a Gemini Enterprise. Mate, I don't want to share details with you, but everything they do drives client value. Um heart to beat.

SPEAKER_01

Uh I I just think they're heart to beat. Yeah, I think they're perfectly poised here and you you know, traded opinions back and forth in the past if there's a if there's a bubble in this environment overall. And and I still think that there is. Um but I You know my take on it. Yeah, no. But I also think that you know Google will be one of the this will actually be beneficial to a certain extent. In the long term, this will be beneficial to Google because I think it will concentrate the market around them even further and around some others. But uh especially with this whole TPU topic, like man, what's they they have their own proprietary, independent vertical supply there. Yeah. And it doesn't matter what happens to these contracts with OpenAI and NVIDIA or whatever. Yes.

SPEAKER_00

Vertical integration, yeah, is is something it's har it's hardly talked about, but yeah, they are in it in quite uh a unique position. Yes. And by the way, um, and we the the bubble thing is of course tied to to the new arms race uh with regards to capex, right? Every company is is is purring in billions of dollars. Um the the the capex guidance, capital expenses guidance of um uh of Google for the year 2026, a very moderate 180 billion dollars. Um but the the cool thing is, you know what? They earn so much money that there's no risk to it. Yeah, there's no risk to it. They can afford to invest, and I think they have their strategy uh laying in front of them. They know what to build, how to build it. Again, no financial advice. I've bought some shares a couple of couple of months ago, uh, but no financial advice. I think this company is set up the right way, and to relate back to the core business, uh to the core topic of our podcast, um the the e-commerce flywheel is there. They embed their AI power into the ads ecosystem like no one else. And this is good for our clients, I think. Um it's a challenge for all agencies in the world for sure. Yeah, but Google does a lot of things right. Yeah, that's correct.

SPEAKER_01

Well, let's leave it on that note. Let's see what Q2 brings. Exactly.

SPEAKER_00

But uh yeah, thanks, Mike. It was a pleasure.