Growing Ecommerce – The Retail Growth Podcast

Google Goes a Box Too Far — Plus Why OpenAI’s $100B Ad Dream Doesn’t Add Up

• Smarter Ecommerce • Season 4 • Episode 42

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0:00 | 27:56

Google just announced the biggest change to search in its history — and not everyone is happy. At Google I/O, the search bar became a search box, signaling a full shift toward conversational, Gemini-powered search. The market is already reacting: DuckDuckGo rocketed from around position 400 to the top 100 in the app stores almost overnight, right around the May 20–21 launch. Mike Ryan and Chris unpack what a privacy-and-no-AI search wrapper suddenly surging tells us about consumer appetite — and why the relentless pace of change is exhausting retailers and experts alike.

Then: fresh eMarketer data puts the AI advertising hype into much-needed context. AI ad spend in the US sits around $32B in 2026 (roughly a third of Google’s search spend), but ~80% of it is just AI-search-adjacent — ads above and below AI Overviews. The chatbot-driven slice everyone is panicking about? Tiny. We dig into why OpenAI’s $100B ad ambition looks unrealistic, what the 2030 projections actually say, and why the real takeaway for CMOs and CDOs is: prepare, but don’t abandon your bread and butter.

The throughline: everything is changing, and everything is staying the same. With limited budget and talent, the retailers who win are the ones who resist FOMO, pick their battles, and keep investing in the core campaigns that still drive the business.

In this episode:

  • Why Google’s “bar to box” change is its biggest search shift ever — and what it implies about how Google wants you to search
  • DuckDuckGo’s surge from ~position 400 to top 100: a clear sign some consumers find the new box too much
  • Why the pace of change may now be too fast even for Google itself
  • AI Max for Shopping vs. PMax — the strategic misalignment Google may not even see
  • Why standard shopping is here to stay (and the comeback we called early)
  • The new eMarketer data: ~$32B AI ad spend in 2026, ~80% of it AI-search-adjacent
  • Why OpenAI’s $100B ad goal and the 2030 chatbot-ad market projections don’t line up
  • The real CMO/CDO playbook: prepare efficiently, beat the FOMO, protect your bread and butter


About Smarter Ecommerce (smec):

Smarter Ecommerce (smec) empowers e-commerce brands with AI-driven PPC automation that optimizes for profit and business outcomes while maintaining strategic control.

The platform activates first-party data - profit margins, customer lifetime value, and key business metrics - to automate campaign optimization toward goals like profitability and efficient growth, while detailed campaign insights provide full transparency and enable PPC teams to focus on strategic oversight rather than manual execution.

As a Google Premier Partner and three-time Microsoft Retail Partner of the Year, smec manages over €500 million in ad spend and drives €5B+ in annual e-commerce revenue for 350+ global retail clients including THG, Snipes, REWE, and Intersport.

Make sure to follow smec - Smarter Ecommerce for more performance marketing insights:

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Welcome And What We Are Debating

SPEAKER_01

Welcome to another episode of Growing E-Commerce. I'm one of your hosts, Mike, and with me as always, Chris. Hey, Chris. Enjoying another Red Pool. Maybe this is my starting note. We had a good one last time. Well, we're not talking about product placement today. We're going to be talking about whether or not Google went a bridge too far or a box too far. Box too far. You'll find out what that means in a second. And also new data from eMarketer calls into question what's going on with open AI ads and advertising as a category. And uh but also gives us some insight into where this category stands with Google today. So it's very interesting.

SPEAKER_00

Yes. I love these two topics. I think they're very much adjacent to what we have been talking about the episode before. Yeah.

DuckDuckGo Downloads Suddenly Spike

SPEAKER_00

And um, Mike, I mean, let's jump right into it.

SPEAKER_01

Sure. Are we starting with Google or eMarket or Google? Let's start with Google. All right. Why not? And this is, by the way, based on data from Sensor Tower. Um they uh look at different app store rankings and stuff like this. But something interesting happened. Okay. So I'm looking at category rankings for um DuckDuckGo. Um in case anyone listening doesn't know Duck DuckGo. It is a Bing search wrapper, basically. It's uh it's an alternate uh search provider, and they're positioned around like privacy. And right about now, they're positioned around not using any AI in their products unless you want that. No tracking, basically. Yeah. But also like in the AI, yeah, exactly. On the tracking side, the advertising side, then also um on these AI search features. So DuckDuckGo is having a pretty good couple of months.

unknown

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Good. That's what you call good. Uh interesting. Really good.

SPEAKER_01

So for example, um, it uh these numbers vary depending on which exact category you're looking at and stuff like that. But in both the iOS App Store and the Android App Store, they went to the moon. So for example, in top free applications, they went from around position 400 to being in the top 100. By another measure, they went from being around position 175 to being around position 40. So these are really big jumps, sustained jumps. Sustained jumps, yes. Um and in no matter how you look at it, this all happened around May 20th, May 21st of 2026.

SPEAKER_00

My assumption would be that DuckDuckGo released a massively, massive impacting feature. They must have massively improved their product, right? What what happened? I mean or was it was it something else? They did nothing. Although maybe they've thrown some marketing and stuff. Don't be too harsh on them. Yeah. But but there was no major feature. It was not there was no major feature release on DuckDuckGo's side. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

No, no. I mean, I think they've I I don't know exactly when, but they've really stepped forward with positioning their product and stuff like that. A great product. They've been doing good work. But it's not related to what happened to their product. What happened? What do you think? It's what related. It's what it's related to what happened to a competitor product, specifically a small one? Yeah. Google. Yeah. Google the big chi. Google search. What did they do? On May 20th and May 21st. Remind me, Chris, what what were there

Google Turns The Search Bar Box

SPEAKER_01

is anything happened around? I don't know, man. Oh, there was Oh, that's right. There was Google I.O. and Google Marketing Live. Yes. Google I.O. They announced the biggest change ever, in my opinion. I think many would see it the same way. The biggest change ever to Google search as a product because they're rolling out something new. It's no longer going to be a search bar, it's going to be a search box. And that's my lame joke at the start. Did Google go a box too far? Now we go full circuit. Yes.

SPEAKER_00

It is enchants. This this is this is how smart the intro was of our beloved Microsoft. You know what? This is a high production podcast. It sounds ridiculous, right? From a bar to a box. I mean but if if you look into it, the box is literally a big change to how uh how you search, how you should search, what it what it is implying in terms of um what how Google wants you maybe to search. Yes. The box is substantially different to to the uh to the beloved bar we got used to. Exactly.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, I mean uh I just think like because Google's been saying that search queries are getting two or three times longer already.

SPEAKER_00

Already. And on on these Atlantic ASOR firsts, I think that that was the first stat they shared with us. Yeah. 2.5x. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

And and now their main search product is going into a box, which is just from a you know, I'm not a UI UX expert or something, but I think it's pretty obvious that if you have a bar or you have a box, you're going to type more.

SPEAKER_00

Yes. Or less. For sure. Yeah. For sure. There is some there will be some some priming effect going on. Um for sure. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

And and the reason people are reacting to this is because, you know, it's not only that, it's just this is the interface that we've all become familiar with from Chat GPT and Google AI mode and elsewhere. It's it is basically an AI chat interface at this point. Yes. You can upload um images and other things. By the way, make that this is also a major, major maybe upgrade, but still change. Well, think about it. Think about it, Chris. Like, because uh, you know, we're talking about how does Google plan to report search terms or match keywords if the queries are getting so long, but what if there's an image attached to it? You know, I want shoes like this. Like this.

SPEAKER_00

And you add an image.

SPEAKER_01

Yes.

SPEAKER_00

You took up your or I upload my bicep biceps and I tell Google I w I want to have one which is twice as big. Yeah. What's the reference point? Look, there's massive implication. Uh really. Because what what I think is Google I mean, Google is doubling down on on their vision that it everything will be conversational, everything will be massively channel powered, and I think they they have massive confidence in in the product landscape to deal with this

Images, Longer Queries, And Ad Fallout

SPEAKER_00

more conversational search queries. Um the question though is if we look at this duckduckgoing indication, um, is the market adopting it? Is the market ready for it? Clearly not everyone is. Clearly, not everyone is. And uh DuckDuckGo is just one indication with regards to the to the end consumer side. Uh, I think maybe we have some time today to also talk about man, what about what about the online retailer? The D2C that the online player in general, the operational teams. There's so much things going on. There's so many things going on. Uh and I I I think I I I stated in the last episode maybe, maybe Google we were hard on them because it seemed to be kind of this innovation dilemma, they were very slow, very hesitant. Yeah. Right now, maybe the pace is too high. Yeah, it could be. It it certainly could be. And this is a clear indication that uh a significant uh share of of Google users are for whatever reason not happy with this new box.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, definitely. I mean, and we'll see what happens to DuckDuckGo's market share. Like, I don't know, ultimately, I don't know what it means for DuckDuckGo to be a top 100 app compared to a top 400 app. And you know, that's compared to they need to keep doing that for years to take market share. But it's still it's a clear sign that for some consumers this is too much. For retailers, the pace of change is exhausting and relentless. For us, too, to be honest. Yes. Um and that, you know, the other thing there's all these quotes, there's like that famous Bill quotes, uh Bill Gates quote about uh that basically things don't change as much as you expect to in the short term, but more than you expected in the long term. But I feel that every day because I I feel like everything is changing. And I but I but yeah, but I also feel like everything's staying the same, too. It's and it's sort of both.

SPEAKER_00

It's really weird. Yeah. And uh talking about this this weirdness, uh, and I'm circling back to the to the marketing knife. Look, we we we are a specialized company, a truly specialized company. It's it's Google, Microsoft, Meta, right? Yeah. And we're very much focusing on on everything they release, the campaign types with people like you who are globally respected uh experts. But man, even the two of us, we are sometimes what the f and it's not just understanding what that what this new campaign type or campaign technology is about. Of course, it's also about understanding the implications. Yes. How does this interfere with with everything else I do? How to really optimize it. I I I re I really feel like that Google Google Space, I mean, hats off to them, but yeah. Uh I I think it's too I'm not kidding, it's too much.

SPEAKER_01

I think even for them, it's a lot. I don't think they would really disagree with you. Um

Retailers Struggle With Google Speed

SPEAKER_01

it it's I think it's just it is a ton.

SPEAKER_00

It it's a ton. And and maybe maybe this is a as a is a bit bit bit off off off uh off track here because it's not directly related to to DuckDuckGo. But you mentioned now that maybe even for Google it's too much. We talked about uh AI Max shopping, right? Yeah. And and all the massive capabilities AI Max shopping has now. Yes. I think you brought this up, Mike, and uh the more I think about it, the more you're right about that. I I think uh shopping becomes so powerful again that some retailers might ask them stuff, why why should I even do PMAX? Yeah.

unknown

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

And that's certainly not not not not in the interest of Google, I assume. PMEX is the main campaign type plan.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, they've they've invested a lot of money in this and um in building it and marketing it, everything else. Um I I've I've really racked my brains about this, and I've asked Googlers directly, I've raised it to Google, are you aware? Because or just to finish the thought here, like um AIMAX for shopping is it's classic shopping that everyone knows and loves with great controls that everyone knows and loves. Um, and then it also can create these feed-based DSAs, which are a super popular concept with people. So it can cover text ads, it can cover the whole search network. It can deliver these new AI formats like we talked about in the last episode. It can appear in AI mode. It can do everything that PMAX can do for search networks with arguably better controls and reporting. Better controls, yeah. And because you know, PMAX will be able to do those things too. But not everyone has been satisfied with PMAX from the start, with the way it's structured. Um, you've got other campaign types like DemandGen, which is DemandGen does everything PMAX can do for video and display, but with better controls and reporting. And you know, that was people didn't want search network and video display together. No one I think I ever talked with like that idea besides Google. If you can have the best of both worlds, why wouldn't you?

SPEAKER_00

And that example. And by the way, uh we are way off topic, but it's fascinating. So let's run with it. Let's run it. It's fascinating and it it it's it's an indication that the pace Google is running on right now might even be too fast for them. Because the the the strategic misalignments uh which are obvious here, I I I don't know if if they foresaw it. And I I'm not even sure if they are aware of it. That that's for me the thing. I I'm not sure either. Um and uh by the way, the great thing is that um also from a technol technological perspective, I think we made the absolute right decision to double down with our technology on both campaign types, standard shopping and PMEX. Yeah. Because however you see it, standard shopping is certainly here to stay. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, if if I can't. Yeah, definitely. If I can give her so we we like we we kind of rarely and ever talk about our product or stuff like that on here, but if I can give us a little credit, we anticipated that shopping was gonna have a comeback. Yes. Um and we anticipated that a while ago.

SPEAKER_00

A while ago. And and to steer it holistically with with a with a powerful platform. I think we we were absolutely right. I mean, shout out shout out to ourselves.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. Well, hey, good job. We good good job. We correctly anticipate because I think shopping is gonna have a major comeback. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Um and and and going back to the initial thought here, so uh DuckDuckGo, strong indication that that the end consumer in in in this case is not too happy about this massive change from bar to box. And um but I think there's more to it. Uh Google is is so fast that not just not just the end consumer, but I think really all the the online retailer, the experts, they're struggling with this space. Yes, for sure. Um and uh my my my my honest take on it is uh I I don't look I I love a lot of things Google is doing and uh a lot of things we have been very positive about, but I I don't even see the the pressure uh for Google right now. No I mean ChatGPD is not the fastest innovator right now. Yeah, I mean they're building fast, but they're not innovating anymore. That that's that's that's the correct way to put it. So uh that that that's surprising to me that Google is is going all in so fast. Let's see. DuckDuckDo, uh we will monitor it. Yeah. This is really sustainable.

SPEAKER_01

We're gonna watch and we'll be we'll be talking about duck duck go ads in a man. Duck duck go ads, the biggest uh opportunity ever. Yeah, exactly. Ever. It's because well it's overtaking chat GPD ads. Digital was the fourth wave of of advertising, retail media is the fifth wave, the sixth wave of advertising is duck duck fucking go. And we'll look at this episode and love our ass off.

SPEAKER_00

Right. Yeah, absolutely. All right. Um

eMarketer Puts AI Ads In Context

SPEAKER_00

let's talk about the marketer data.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. And you know, I want to transition a bit because we're we're just talking a little bit about how much everything is changing. And and one thing, there's a framework that that we've been presenting a lot over the last year, and I think we've talked about here, um, where we know that search, classic search is going to be going through some kind of a decline. And Google may be responsible for pacing that, um, or the market might be more responsible or competition, we don't know. But it's gonna go through some kind of decline. And these new AI services and also AI ads and stuff like that, they're going to become ascended. Yes. And depending on how to what extent that happens and how fast that happens, that's either very disruptive or it's no big deal and it's manageable. Yes. Um But what I like about this new e-marketer data is that it gives us sort of a first status quo. Um and it also has an outlook into the future. Um I'm not a uh I should I'm not a huge fan of e-marketer data, I have to say. Um it's sometimes a bit uh clickmaidy for me. Sometimes I feel like they're just extrapolating way too far into the future. Um, but it's always worth a conversation. I'll put it like that.

SPEAKER_00

Yes. One thing they are for sure, they are they are quite bold with their predictions. Yes. And they don't hold back.

SPEAKER_01

No, no, they don't.

SPEAKER_00

Hats off to them. Yeah. So for better or worse.

SPEAKER_01

Let's talk about the data. Yeah. So um for for viewers, we'll put this on screen and and for listeners, um, I'm gonna describe it to you best as I can. They have a bar chart going a stacked bar chart going from 2026 through 2030. And so each of these columns, I said I said it's stacked, it shows you the sum of three categories of AI advertising spent. The categories are AI search adjacent, which basically means when an ad is above or below an AI overview. AI conversational search is the second category, which is when an ad appears inside of AI mode or inside of Bing Copilot or Microsoft Copilot or these kind of things. Uh, but let's face it, basically AI mode. Um, and then the third category are ads inside of AI chatbots and uh chat GPT. They're chat GPT. Exactly. So they show us that in 2026, they're in the US, they're estimating that all of AI advertising, so adjacent to AI overviews inside AI mode and inside of chatbots like ChatGPT, sums up to $32 billion. And for context, Google's total search spend in the US, we'll have to see what it will be in 2026, but it'll be upwards of 100 billion. Yes. So, you know, ballpark, we're talking about a third right now. Um which is a lot. It yeah, it's a lot. Um but it's also not overwhelming. Overwhelming, yeah. 80% of that, according to eMarketer, is AI search adjacent. So that's not surprising because I think that at least for me, AI overviews trigger on like every search. Yeah. And often ads also trigger. Um I think that that that picture still hasn't changed for e-commerce the way that it will. But um so I think that's a really interesting status quo status. To see where are we here? Okay.

OpenAI Ad Hype Versus Reality

SPEAKER_01

How big it is it? About a third. All right, all right. Um and then again, 2030 is Why is 2030 s such a big thing? All right. Well, first off, it's a new decade and it's a and it's comparably a long time. Like considering how fast all this stuff changes and how uncertain everything is, it's a long way to look forward. Yes. But it's also a date. It's one of our favorite themes on this podcast. Do we do we do it too much, Chris? I don't know.

SPEAKER_00

Actually, actually, I don't care. Actually, I don't care. Let's talk about it. Yeah. Don't hold back. 2030 is the year in which OpenI wants to cross the 100 billion.

SPEAKER_01

Yes.

SPEAKER_00

Uh with their ads business.

SPEAKER_01

And uh Which means that they would be as big in 2030 as Google is now. Yes. Oh, wait, that's their global. That's their global.

SPEAKER_00

So maybe they'd be 50 billion in the US.

SPEAKER_01

So they'd be half as big as Google.

SPEAKER_00

And why this is so important? Because we assume that mo most of the revenue um ChatGPD is crossing will be at a chatbot driven adds revenue. Yes. Yes. And according to eMarketer, for better or worse, the total addressable market in 2030 is what is it, Mike? I'm um I don't have the top of mind. Um it's hard to butt.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, it's about it's about let's say six billion. For chat for ads inside of chatbots. Yeah, chatbots.

SPEAKER_00

Yes. And the the on the one hand, this should just tell you that the 100 billion Sam Altman is is running around with are just unrealistic. Yes. A. But for me, the other uh on the other hand, um it it it puts this whole AI at revenue. It maybe it's not a bottle, it's a real thing. It it it's relevant, yes, but it puts it in into context again.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

It it's not this this huge thing which is happening overnight. It's not happening according to you, Mark. It's not not not changing everything within the next four or five years. I think this is the major takeaway for me that yes, it's relevant, complementary, incremental revenue for you, yeah, but it's still just a part a tiny part of the wall cake.

SPEAKER_01

I I mean, I I want to look at that because like so e-marketers' number that they peg for the for all of AI advertising in 2030 is sixty-eight billion. And we're saying that Google is already upwards of a hundred right now. Yes, yes, sir. It'll double from like the 33 that it'll more than double. That's that's something. But um Google Google's revenue is not gonna stand still in the meantime. So um, you know, that might be 50 percent or something by then. I don't know what the numbers will be. But it it's it's really fascinating. Uh and chat be chat GPT thinks that things are gonna play out dramatically different. And entirely in their favor.

SPEAKER_00

Yes. Good for them if it if it does.

SPEAKER_01

Aaron Powell I mean I I promise you that this chart is going to be this is will certainly be wrong. Aaron Ross Powell It'll be wrong in one way or another.

SPEAKER_00

Yes.

SPEAKER_01

At least one thing's about it is going to be wrong. And I and I think that ads AI ads will be bigger than 68 billion by then.

SPEAKER_00

Probably. And I think the shares will be different. And I believe that chatbot-driven uh ad stallers or ads revenue will will be maybe probably higher than that. Yeah. In talking about shares.

SPEAKER_01

Trevor Burrus, Jr.: But you know, Chris, we're not alone in thinking about 100 billion is ridiculous.

SPEAKER_00

No, that that that that's the thing. And I think it puts it into context. But the the bigger takeaway is for me, again, the question we have been discussing in this episode many times, what to focus on now. Yeah. As a CMO, as a CDO, yes, these enchantic surfaces are important. You it will drive revenue for you. Yes. But put it into context. Don't forget the bread and butter, which which will still be your bread and butter in four years. Totally. It's it's like I said, everything's changing, but everything's staying the same too. It's correct. It's it's absolutely correct. So uh and and one one thing about the status, I I I I believe in the status quo numbers, more or less, because they did the research. The the projection, the pro prediction is shaky. I mean like every prediction. But even if you look at the status quo, right? It it shows you that the portion right now, the share right now is is for chat chatbot-driven revenue is is small. Yes. Uh very small, actually. Uh so it it's it's such a long way to go to really be this disruptive and um uh additional adds adds a revenue layer for you.

SPEAKER_01

So it's just when you the thing is like there's this huge mandate right now in organizations. Like this is this is a burning we see this in our client meetings all the time. This is a burning hot topic. It goes to top to every agenda, every roadmap. Yes. And you you know, it's good to want to be prepared, to want to grab this. There could be first mover advantages, but um, you just have to pick your battles, prioritize and approach the thing in a reasonable way.

SPEAKER_00

Well, one one one thousand percent and and and be be aware of of of of a major bias every every human has, which is which is a FOMO. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Uh and we've got yeah, we've got FOMO, FUD, VUCA.

SPEAKER_00

We got everything. In this case, I I would love to double down on FOMO because that's what I see with with with a lot of our clients on a on a daily basis. Well, they don't want to miss this train. Yeah. But you you're not missing it. Be prepared. It's it's not changing the nature of your business. Um that's what we try to hammer home.

SPEAKER_01

Good Google has, to a certain extent, Google has to take everyone along for the ride. Because like this is not um, you know, I think everyone's so spooked after seeing what happened to organic visibility with publishers and stuff like that. But e-commerce is not the same as just publishers. And, you know, Google did not have such a big commitment to driving ad revenue on the open web. They're we we've seen the open web declining in Google's revenue quarter after quarter for years. And they focus more and more on their owned and operated prof properties. And this this is just going to play out differently. Yes. So it's true that your business could succeed more or less depending on how you react, but I also think we should take some of the fear away.

SPEAKER_00

Yes. That that's it. And it's more about being prepared than than than literally overreacting to this. Yeah. Because let's face it, every I I assume every online retailer, with the exception of our Chinese friends and maybe some some some giants um from the US or maybe even Europe, you you you have to face limited resources. Yeah. You have you have only so much talent in your company, you only have so much money in your company. And why is this so important? Because if if you're talking about limited resources, you you have to take trade-off decisions everything late. And to to double down on something which is which won't be as relevant as you think is is is a big issue as as a manager. Um so it's rather about being prepared and be prepared as efficiently as possible, but don't forget your bread and butter. And the bread and butter are still your your core campaigns within the Google and markets of that stack.

SPEAKER_01

Yes, exactly.

SPEAKER_00

I mean it is what it is. Yeah.

Final Takeaways And Listener Requests

SPEAKER_00

It is what it is. I mean anything to add, Mike?

SPEAKER_01

No, I would say let's leave it there, man. It is what it is. It is what it is.

SPEAKER_00

So Mike, do we have another topic or let's wrap it up? We'll give everyone back some of their time. Love it. And looking forward to the next episode. Very good. Handshake, Mike. My shoulder is. Is it better? Yeah, it's it's way better. It's way better. Okay.

SPEAKER_01

All right. Uh but then we're gonna go play tennis one time.

SPEAKER_00

Oh, for sure. Put it to the test. Now, now you would probably have a chance to win. Yeah. But the with the type I don't even know how to hold a tennis racket. But doesn't matter because I I I can't literally play. And we would have to play the next two or three weeks because then I'm back again. All right. Very good. Take your channel.

SPEAKER_01

Thanks everyone for listening. This has been another episode of Growing E commerce, brought to you as always by Smarter E commerce. You can learn more at Smarter eCommerce.com. As always, please give us a shout out on social media. Leave us a review. We really appreciate it. Thanks, and we'll see you next time. Bye bye.