BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson

🎧 Podcast Summary: Brendon Ogmundson on BC Real Estate & the Housing Crisis

Date: September 8, 2025
Guest: Brendon Ogmundson, Chief Economist at BCREA

🏘️ BC Real Estate & Housing Market

• Brendon’s Role: Brendon Ogmundson is the Chief Economist at the BC Real Estate Association. He’s known for making very accurate predictions about the housing market.
• Housing Trouble in BC: The housing market in BC, especially in Vancouver, is struggling. Homes are expensive, and it’s hard for regular people to buy.
• Government Rules Aren’t Working: Some of the rules made by the government (like the foreign buyer tax) didn’t really help. Prices are higher now than they were before.
• Foreign Buyers Blamed Unfairly: Blaming foreign buyers for high home prices is not backed up by facts. Many people once called "foreign buyers" are now Canadian citizens who live and work here.

🏗️ Housing Starts & Construction

• Housing Starts are Down: New home construction is not growing—it’s actually going down when it should be going up.
• Rental vs. Resale Confusion: We need better numbers that show how many homes are for rent vs. for sale. Right now, about half of new homes are rentals, not homes people can buy.

🧮 Mortgages & Borrowing

• Mortgage Rules are Tough: A rule called the “stress test” has made it way harder to get a big mortgage. People can borrow about half as much as they could before 2016.
• 50-Year Mortgages?: Brendon thinks people should be allowed to have longer mortgages (like 50 years) just like big rental developers do. This would help more people buy homes.
• Upcoming Renewals: Many people who bought homes during COVID will be renewing their mortgages soon. These people have more income now, and they still have home equity.

💰 Affordability & Predictions

• Not Really Affordable: Even though some say we’re back to “affordable” home prices, that’s not true in places like downtown Vancouver. Prices are still high and homes are not selling quickly.
• Owning vs. Renting: Owning a home helps people feel stable. But current policies push more people into renting, which makes it harder to settle down.
• Future Price Spike?: If we don’t get more homes for sale, prices might suddenly jump by 20% in one spring season.
• Rental Projects Might Become Condos: Some developers might turn rental buildings into condos later on, selling them off in 10-20 years.

💼 Broker Advice & Industry Trends

• Advice for Brokers: Mortgage brokers should stay sharp and keep working hard. The market won’t get easier any time soon.
• Market is Slowing: It’s a “low and wide” market—things are moving slowly, and homes aren’t selling fast.
• Roadblocks from Politics: Some new rules are popular with voters but weren’t really thought through. They make things worse for the housing market.