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Playoff Maths, Weekend Heroes - The Sport for Business Daily
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We break down Ireland’s 9% shot at a World Cup playoff using a simple, transparent model, and celebrate five Champions of the Weekend across football, swimming, rugby, and Gaelic games.
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Hello and welcome to the Sport for Business Daily. I'm your host, Rob Hartnett, the founder of Sport for Business, and in today's five-minute blast of the content that we produce on sportforbusiness.com, we are looking at two of the six stories that we have. The chances in a number of the Republic of Ireland making it to a World Cup playoff. We ran a statistical analysis over the course of what has happened in qualifications so far, probably to get us away from the frustration of Portugal scoring yet another injury time winner. But we also are looking at the champions of the weekend, and there is a moment from that game in Portugal. We Vin Kelleha's penalty save is one of the five champions of the weekend that we're highlighting. Our first story then is the chances in a single number of the Republic of Ireland making it to the World Cup playoffs. Well, that path to a top two finish in the FIFA World Cup qualifying group remains open, but only just after that late defeat to Portugal on Saturday. A statistical model we created then to avoid dwelling on the injury time goal that negated what was otherwise a very positive performance suggests that Heimer Halgromson's side has around a 9% chance of securing one of the two automatic qualifying spots in UEFA Group F. With three games left to play, Portugal lead the way on nine points, followed by Hungary on four, Armenia on three, which we know all about, and Ireland on one. That leaves precious little margin for error as Ireland prepare to host Armenia in Dublin tomorrow night before closing their campaign at home to Portugal and away to Hungary in November. The model, which is based on Elo-style team ratings adjusted for home advantage, has simulated over 200,000 possible outcomes. It places Ireland just about on the edge of a contention for a place. The calculations assume realistic probabilities drawn from recent form and betting markets, where Portugal are overwhelming favourites to top the group. According to the analysis, Ireland have a 66% chance of beating Armenia in Dublin, a result that would be vital to keeping qualification hopes alive. If they do take three points on Tuesday, their chance of a top two finish rises to roughly 13%. A draw would drop that figure to just 2.5%, while defeat would all but end the campaign, leaving them with less than a 1% shot. Elsewhere in the group, Portugal's home clash with Hungary will also be very decisive. Should the Portuguese win, Ireland's qualification probably nudges up to around about 10%, regardless of what happens against Armenia, and a draw cuts it to six. A Hungarian victory though drops it to below three, regardless of what we do against Armenia at home. Ireland's remaining fixtures offer little comfort. The model gives a 10% chance of beating Portugal in Dublin next month and a 14% chance of getting a result away to Hungary in the group finale. In contrast, Portugal are favoured to win all of their remaining games, but Hungary and Armenia are projected to be the two scrapping over the second place, unless of course we have something to say about that. The bottom line, Ireland's route is steep but not entirely blocked. Victory over Armenia is non-negotiable, and even then the team will need help from elsewhere, starting with Portugal beating Hungary to keep the dream of a trip to the USA, Mexico and Canada next summer alive. And the second story that we're highlighting on sportforbusiness.com this morning is our Champions of the Weekend. Each weekend we select performances from Irish sports that deserve recognition, and this weekend we're highlighting action in football, swimming, rugby, and Gaelic football. This week's Champions of the Weekend is brought to us by Dublin City Council, one of Sport for Business's key partners and a leading player in the delivery of sport to communities that need it most. So, who are the five that we've highlighted as our champions of the weekend? Well, number one, Quevine Kelleher. Ultimately, the game ended in defeat, but on 75 minutes, the goalkeeper reminded us of the joy that can come from supporting the Republic of Ireland with a save that could have come from the pages of Roy of the Rovers. Cristiano Ronaldo, in front of his home crowd, would expect to celebrate after the penalty was won, especially as he saw Kelleher dive right as he drove the ball down the middle. But an almost balletic raised left boot cleared the ball and sent the fans into delirium, at least for another 16 minutes. Number two on our list of weekend winners, Ellen Walsh. She continued her remarkable rise on the international swimming stage this weekend, delivering two outstanding performances at the World Aquatics World Cup in Carmel, Indiana. The Temple Oak swimmer first stormed a silver in the 400m individual medley, clocking a superb 428.47 to stand on the podium alongside some of the world's best all-rounders. Then, less than 24 hours later, she returned to the pool to make history. In the 200m butterfly, she produced a blistering swim of 205.07 to claim bronze and in doing so shattered a 28-year-old Irish short course record previously held by Olympic medallist Michelle Smith. Number three in our list, Dunloy GAA Club. Of all the county finals over the weekend, the one that stood out was the Antrim Senior Football Decider, where Dunloy won a first title with the bigger ball since 1936. They have been dominating the county with 11 titles so far this century in hurling, but lost in the semifinal last weekend, with 14 of the players who turned out again yesterday. It was a very sweet way to bounce back. Number four was from Friday night, and it was Shelburne FC's defensive performance against Shamrock Rovers. The SSE Atricity Premier Division was there in Talla, ready to be handed over to Rovers on Friday night, but after Kerr McEnroy's first half goal, Shelburne looked the more likely winners. Paddy Barrett sending off changed the dynamic, and the last 15 minutes were a breathtaking roller coaster of a defensive show that would not have been out of place at the Alamo. And in fifth place, we have Munster and Ulster in the United Rugby Championship. Leinster, yes, they did get back to winning ways, but the spotlight is still shining on Munster and on Ulster, who both wood at home to maintain 100% records in this season's competition so far. Also on sportforbusiness.com this Monday morning, October the thirteenth, we have three stories on a theme of sport for social good. A beautiful, simple campaign on the tactics of talking that we're taking from a London football club, the Gaelic Players Association launching a refresh of their mental health hub and a global recognition for the Irish Homeless Football Programme. I hope you enjoy all of the contest that we see on sportforbusiness.com and look forward to having you back here again on the Sport for Business Daily tomorrow.
