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What Chance Now for World Cup '26? - The Sport for Business Daily
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We break down the 1-0 win over Armenia, the shifting maths in Group F, and the scenarios that could still send Ireland to a playoff and beyond. We also map Northern Ireland’s cleaner path through Bratislava and scan the wider sport landscape from social impact to sponsorship.
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Hello and welcome to the Sport for Business Daily Podcast on Wednesday, October the 15th, 2025. Today we're looking back on last night's victory for the Republic of Ireland against Armenia at the Aviva Stadium, what it means for the future prospects of qualification for both the Republic of Ireland and indeed Northern Ireland in making it through to a playoff and hopefully potentially a trip to the USA, Mexico and Canada for World Cup 2026. The Sport for Business Daily is an audio blast of the content which we produce every day on sportforbusiness.com. If you want to find out more, please do visit us at the website or sign up, subscribe, comment, and share wherever you get your podcasts from. We are taking a short break away from the Sport for Business Daily now at the moment, and we will be back with all of the content from Sport for Business on Monday, November the 3rd. The celebration of Evan Ferguson's goal at the Vivi Stadium last night was a reminder of what it can be like to follow the Republic of Ireland. The fact that 42,292 fans were in the ground was another indicator that all we need is a glimmer of hope to keep on coming. So, how strong is that glimmer after last night's results in Dublin and in Portugal, where the visitors Hungary snatched a late point. Not a good one for us. We ran the same set of simulations as after the defeat in Lisbon at the weekend. While the 1-0 victory over Armenia in Dublin has breathed life into the campaign, the numbers suggest that the road to the top two in Group F is still a steep one. After four rounds, the table has tightened. Portugal sit on 10 points, Hungary on five, the Republic of Ireland now on four, and Armenia on three. With two matches left to play, every result is vital. The new simulation puts Ireland's chances of a top two finish at around 14%, up from 9% before the Armenia match. Hungary, by contrast, are now 83% likely to secure qualification, with Portugal all but sure to advance. The modest improvement reflects two factors: Ireland's much needed win and Hungary's late 2-2 draw with Hungary in Lisbon. That draw, powered by a late equaliser from Dominic Schobeschlei, has put them in the driving seat. Still, the door is ajar for both Ireland and Armenia heading into November's double header. Ireland's next two fixtures are as tricky as they come. Portugal at home on November 13th and Hungary away in Budapest three days later. Using the current ELO ratings and betting market probabilities as we have in the past, the model gives Ireland just a 15% chance of beating Portugal in Dublin and then a 21% chance of winning away against Hungary. Portugal are heavily favoured in both of their remaining games, while Hungary's trip to Yerevan to face Armenia looms as the actual hinge point for how the group will finish. If Ireland can defy the odds and beat Portugal, their chance of a top two finish jumps to roughly 20%. But if they win and Armenia take points from Hungary, that could surge above 40%, and they might only need a draw in Hungary. Conversely, if Ireland lose to Portugal, well Hungary win in Armenia, the campaign is over with a game to go. Running similar numbers for Northern Ireland are an easier read, while the key fixture there is the trip to Bratislava to play Slovakia on November 12th. A win there and the chances of a top two finish climb to 58%, with Slovakia facing Germany in the final game and Luxembourg coming to Belfast. Even a draw would leave a 33% chance given the last set of games. The defeat and Germany getting at least a point against Luxembourg means that this journey too would be over as well. Elsewhere on Sport for Business today, we are looking back on the recording of our Sport for Business Social, Sport for Social good event in Dublin yesterday, chatting to Paralympics Ireland, Special Olympics Ireland, Park Hit, Dublin City Council and Dunleary Wrathdown County Council, looking at the ways in which their use of sport is creating real impact across a number of different groups. Last night we also uh celebrated Dublin GAA's move to take on board Marcus O'Bukela, taking him away from Leinster Rugby. And we've also this morning got a look ahead to the European Sponsorship Awards. I am one of 27 Irish-based judges amongst the overall panel of more than 120 that give this a real hard look to see what the best European sponsorship projects have been through 2025. And you've got 48 hours to get your final entries in for that if you so wish. We will be taking a short break now, and we will be back with the Sport for Business Daily and all of our regular daily content on Monday, November 3rd. In the meantime, hope you have a great time.
