The Risk Takers Podcast
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The Risk Takers Podcast
The 6 Things You MUST Know About Your Market | Ep 34
In this episode, we analyze the impacts of public tout services, book limits, and the most influential betters in your market.
This information is MUST know for extracting max value from your market.
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they're gonna bet a Fandle before they're gonna bet a Pinnacle at this point, right, like, why worry about getting $500 down a Pinnacle before you bet $2,000 on a Fandle? I'm not saying that you know. Hey, what's up? Everybody GP13 here Today I wanted to dive into a tweet that I recently put out.
Speaker 1:That, basically, was an overview of six things that you should know about the market that you're betting in, that you're sports betting in. Right. Here are the six things right off the bat Number one when it opens. Number two when it moves the most, when it's the most active. Number three are there any directional tendencies? Number four public actors that influence the market. Number five limits across all books and when they increase. And number six the biggest betters in the space.
Speaker 1:Alright, let's go back to the beginning. Let's talk about number one first. Number one thing you need to know about your sports betting market, and when I say your market, I guess I'm making this episode from the point of view where you're going and you're attacking one sport, one market. As I've talked about, you know we're active in the golf market. These are things I know, all six of these for the golf market. I have them pretty mapped out in my head. You can know these from multiple markets. There's when we had Shai-Si and Drew on Halo on they talked a lot about knowing when certain lines are going to drop for the NBA, for the NFL. This doesn't have to be limited to one sport. Just remember, take this framework and you can apply it to any sport, any market within sports betting.
Speaker 1:Number one when it opens. Very simple when do the opening lines come out? You have to know. If you want to bet the opening lines. In DFS Pickham, you should be betting the opening lines because there's no increase in limits over the week. The opening line is the same limit as the line is right before the games. It's in a situation like that. It's crucial that you know when the opening lines come out. This could be something like just paying attention and writing it down, setting an alarm on your phone when you think so-and-so is going to drop, or it could be some kind of programmed alert which a lot of people use too. Whatever you need to do, make sure that if you have a strategy that you can bet at the open, then know when those lines are going to drop.
Speaker 1:Number two when is it the most active? This is more applicable, I would say towards the bigger markets. In traditional sports betting, there's times of day when people say the screen's really lighting up, things are moving around. If you're chasing steam, these are the times when you really really need to be at the computer, because this is when people are going to be getting their bets down. You're going to be able to pick off moves. There's going to be the most volatility in the market, which is what you're looking for.
Speaker 1:If you're trading a market-based strategy like steam chasing, even divigging or whatever yeah, I'd say divigging probably falls into that, although it's not exactly as time sensitive, knowing when the active times are, not just when it opens, but when are you going to be able to pick off moves? When are people in there getting their positions down? Sometimes you'll sit and you'll see a big market and it'll just be sitting there quiet for a long time. Another time, just sit down the screen. You'll just see it lighting up like your Christmas tree. It's not necessarily like there's no, I would say formula to it, but it's something that you should keep an eye on and understand. Is this a market that moves a lot of the clothes? That's something that you should be considering, because if it's moving a lot of the clothes, then maybe be at the computer right before stuff tips off. If it doesn't, if it's flat to close and all the big moves happen early, good, then you should also know that, to know that as well and act accordingly, all right.
Speaker 1:Number three is directional tendencies. So you'll hear a lot about. You'll hear people hypothesize. Actually I do not know if this is true or not, but essentially, like you, if you want to bet overs, you got to bet them at the open and if you want to bet unders you wait and you bet them closer to game time, the theory behind this being that the you know, the public, or the just natural inclination of humans to bet overs, kind of steams the, the number up a little bit, you know, from open to game time and then you're going to be able to get a high number around game time to bet under Lowest numbers going to be at the beginning.
Speaker 1:I doubt that's actually true. You'd have to talk to somebody who bets until, like totals markets that are kind of liquid player props also like I don't. I don't think that's true, but that's a narrative and it doesn't really matter if that's true or not. It kind of highlights like what do you know about your market? How do things move Right? Are there traditional, like directional tendencies? For example, in golf, there's this company called data golf. They're. They have a great API for golf, they're basic, they're. They're the best, probably publicly available model that isn't behind like a sports books wall or bedding syndicates wall and they still have a lot of influence over the golf markets, right? So when data golf puts out their numbers they're going to have, they're going to, the market often moves towards them. There's other factors, there's other sports books that the market respects, but this kind of goes into.
Speaker 1:This is three and four, because data golf is a public actor that influences the space and they represent kind of a directional tendency and it's not one that you say like a line will move one way or another, because there's not. There are totals in golf, but it's not the big market. The directional tendency is like an inertia towards data golf right early on in the week and then it might move, you know, later away from data golf. And if you basically I heard this said by one of you know someone who I really, really respect in the golf betting space abnormally distributed, he said that if he agrees with data golf right, he'll bet it early because he knows the number is going to get moved against him by data golf. But if he disagrees with data golf, he'll wait. He'll let the data golf steam kind of chase chase give him a better number or give him the opportunity to rebet stuff into the sharp books. So he judges his position based on, like, what he believes to be the perceived movement of the market and how he acts and how he executes that position. So there's like he gets his number but he knows the directional tendencies of the market to be able to like either kind of empty the clip early, hold back, be a little more patient, because he knows you can get more later. It's very important. Skill, right, like getting down. We always say getting down is skill and it's exactly stuff like that, like what AD was talking about with how he reacts to data golf and their influence in the market. So three and four, I'm kind of bundling it, bundling together here.
Speaker 1:Directional tendencies, public actors a very well-known public actor in non-golf is right angle sports. Right, you know that when right angle sports releases their picks, those lines are going to move. You know, whatever the pick they release, the betters are they're going to steam it. They have a long track record of winning picks and they're one of the few public touts that actually wins, actually delivers good value. So every time they release a pick, the line just moves. Goes crazy.
Speaker 1:So if you were a better who was, you know, maybe an expert who won the sports right angle sports handicaps and you saw them release a pick, or you had an inclination that they might be on the same side of a game as you, then you would bet their release. But if you disagreed with them right, like, let's say you disagreed with them you'd let the number, instead of disagreeing. Right, when they release, maybe you let the number get a few points higher, let the spread get a little bigger, and then you can hammer it back. Right, but you have to know when does right angle sports release College basketball picks? Right? Maybe you wait and you see, oh, is there gonna be a spot that I can take the other side of? Right? But you have to know when they're releasing and you have to know who is a public actor that actually influences lines. There's not many right Data golf, right angle sports. There's not many highly respected public tout services, but you have to know the ones that actually move the market and are public. There's just no excuse to not have your finger enough on the pulse where you're tracking, like the public touts who can move markets.
Speaker 1:All right, number five is actually probably the most important one to take away, because this is something that you can start implementing today. Number five is knowing the limits across every book and knowing when the limits change. Why is this important? You have to know which books are taking big bets because you have to create context behind the numbers they're putting out and the moves that happen. Very basic example let's say that you have a pinnacle opener and it opens. The pinnacle opener opens and it's like a $500 limit and you see Fandall puts out a line and it's like a $2,000 limit for the same game.
Speaker 1:Now, common wisdom says pinnacle greater than Fandall. But put yourself in the shoes of a sharp, better right or someone who has an opinion and wants to bet this early they're gonna bet at Fandall before they're gonna bet at pinnacle at this point. Right Like why worry about getting $500 down at pinnacle before you bet 2,000 at Fandall? And I'm not saying that. You know, in this situation you always stick with the book that's taking more money. But it's a data point. That's a data point and you in a vacuum. The more money a book's taking on the bet, the more confident they are in the bet, the more we're gonna trust their numbers and the more we're gonna trust when they move numbers. So let's go back to that situation right, pinnacle taking 500, fandall taking 2,000.
Speaker 1:Just because pinnacle is pinnacle does not mean that we're gonna take pinnacle's line, opening line, when they're only taking $500, and bet at Fandall. But let's now say right, let's now say pinnacle, fandall's showing value against pinnacle. Fandall still has the same $2,000 limit, right. But pinnacle recently raised their limits to take $5,000 a bet and Fandall's showing value off pinnacle. What happened here? Okay, pinnacle has showed that they have more confidence in the line. They've gotten some information, lineups have come out, something has happened. They, the trading team, the data science team, have decided like, okay, we're ready to raise it up and start taking $5,000 bets.
Speaker 1:It's not insignificant because there are sharp people who wait Till they can get like a lot down to bet. So they know that when they raise the limits they're gonna be like Sharks circling that line. So they have to be pretty confident. They can't just like willy-nilly raise the limit because they Don't limit better. You know they take action from everybody sharp book, right. So they know there's a lot of eyes on them and they want to be as confident as they can when they raise it into that like 5,000 $10,000 range, taking bets, because they know that every syndicate, every sharp better is gonna have their eyes on them, right? So now pinnacle raises their limits 5,000 and Fandals showing value against.
Speaker 1:Then against that number on pinnacle, I Say like that's, that's a, that's a smash bet, right, go ahead and take it. I wouldn't take it on the $500 opener personally, unless there is, like other factors going on. But when you get that you have to know when books are likely to like increase their limits. Spank odds is great for that they have. You can hover over a lot of the books and see how much they're currently taking on certain markets. That's a very valuable tool, right, because it allows you to kind of create like a mental hierarchy of like that number that books taking. You know, 10 grand, so that number. I feel pretty confident in that books only taking two like. Maybe I'm not as Convinced by that book, right. So you have to know not only like the current limits, but also when they're gonna change, because changing limits is indication to the market of increase in confidence, and that should always be factored in to your decision-making.
Speaker 1:Number six is To know the biggest betters in your space. This is gonna be the hardest thing to do, just like today, starting today, because you're only gonna be exposed to people who have some kind of presence on social media. There are big betters who have social media presences, but you know, for every better that's big on social, there's you know two that aren't that are moving a lot of money in the space, and you know Crushing the books, right. So this is only something you get through networking, paying attention, getting hooked up with the industry, just putting yourself out there, meeting people, and You'll soon start to get a feel for like who you know is really moving the markets that you plan. And that's helpful to know because you want to. You want to be able to see the market as kind of as for what it is, which is its books, sharp betters, recreational betters and you want to be able to separate them out, understand whose opinion is pushing the market at this time and that time.
Speaker 1:And oh, is there something I should be Thinking about and taking into my process, and maybe some of them are stupid enough to have podcasts where they just Spread out all their, all their secrets, and it was a big. It's a fear. It was a fear of mine doing this Because I know like I'm gonna want to talk about. You know what I do and I want to give away value, but I also want to protect Some of my information, and it's a fine line, right, and people do Fuck up and say something they probably should have said. I've got information from betters who are ahead of me, who have gone on podcast, gone tv or whatever, and probably giving away a little too much of their their process, and I'm probably gonna do it too.
Speaker 1:So keep an eye out and but you have to know, like actually, who these people are, and that's the difficult part when you first start out is separating the real ones from just like the Marketing people busy. You don't know any better. So just keep your head down. Meet people, get better. Once you develop your own skills, you're gonna be able to more easily recognize and others like who's Trust worthy, who's legit, who is not worth listening to. You'll meet more people who are worth listening to. They'll tell you oh yeah, I know so and so Is was on like xyz and they like Bet, like ten million dollars a day, like oh wow, I didn't know anything about them. Like I've never heard of those people know. Like, yeah, they're like out of a garage in colorado, just crazy, crazy stuff like that.
Speaker 1:Right, so put yourself out there, meet people and put the work into to get better yourself. That will kind of take care of itself. Right, like there's not too much you can do, keep your. You know, go on twitter. You know, see who who's followed by people that you respect. You know that that could be an indication there. Like, certainly, if I see Someone who I know is sharp follow someone else, like, it definitely sends out a little, a little green light in my head being like, oh, maybe they know something, right anyway, but that's, you know, that comes with time.
Speaker 1:So just to recap the six things that you need to know about the market you're trading One, when it opens. Two, when it's the most active. Three, what are the directional tendencies? Four, who are the public actors who influence the markets? Five, what are the limits across all the books? When do those limits change? And six, who are the biggest betters in the space. So if you can nail those six things down, you'll have a really good understanding of how to best extract value from the market that you're trading. I hope that was a valuable episode. I'd appreciate it if anybody who's listening could give this a rating, give this a share. Would love to get some more people into the crew and hop into the Discord, if you haven't Already. We're going to be making, we're going to be pushing some big changes and like some big extra value there, so if you can hop by, that would be greatly appreciated and I will see you all on the next episode, stattorg.