Chillest guy in sports betting, MetroMike, walks us through his process start to finish. There is tons of actionable advice in this episode - and we even talk about golf!
Follow Mike on Twitter: @MetroPassMike
Join Mike's Discord: https://whop.com/swt/
(Enjoy sports betting? Want to get better at it fast? Here's how I can help: https://linktr.ee/goldenpants)
Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor GoldenPants13. On this podcast, you will hear how to build your own profitable gambling operation, learn how to take gambling concepts and use them to dominate in other arenas, and soak up the many lessons and failures that GoldenPants has experienced on his path from struggling poker player to top sports bettor.
Chillest guy in sports betting, MetroMike, walks us through his process start to finish. There is tons of actionable advice in this episode - and we even talk about golf!
Follow Mike on Twitter: @MetroPassMike
Join Mike's Discord: https://whop.com/swt/
(Enjoy sports betting? Want to get better at it fast? Here's how I can help: https://linktr.ee/goldenpants)
Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor GoldenPants13. On this podcast, you will hear how to build your own profitable gambling operation, learn how to take gambling concepts and use them to dominate in other arenas, and soak up the many lessons and failures that GoldenPants has experienced on his path from struggling poker player to top sports bettor.
he's like oh and uh, prize picks rigs the lines. Maybe I don't believe that one. But let's say prize picks has like a high number, like prize picks does 18 and a half on reddit yeah yeah, well, 17 and a half, that 20 plus a plus 600 has got to be good like yeah I can do all the poisson distribution in the world, but let's just, let's just try it out all right.
Speaker 2:Hey, what's up everybody. New episode of the risk takers podcast with an experienced radio guest. Experienced uh sports better experienced discord owner. We got metro mic on twitter, aka mic. Welcome to the show. How's it going? We, uh, we got you on your vacation, on one of your first kind of break. Yeah, half, half a vacation, right, one of your first breaks in a while from the the grind, but you're still, you're still grinding yeah, I mean it's not what it's kind of the full-time thing.
Speaker 1:It's not always a vacation or break. You can always find little ways to do things when you're away. But all in all, I mean, like I had two bets yesterday, so between two and the usual 50 to 100, that's a big difference, I'd say yeah, no, for sure, for sure.
Speaker 2:And um, I think when we we had like a, you posted on twitter saying, like you, you took a screen break and it inspired me to think about breaks and my, my video was like you don't take breaks unless you're doing it for the right reasons, and you're someone who obviously grinds really, really hard and you're not taking breaks off frustration or because you're losing. You just take a break because you've been doing it for way too long and needed a little little reset, right?
Speaker 1:yeah, I will say in full transparency I was down like five to seven grand start the month, but that wasn't the impetus for the break. I was just going abroad and you can't really do any of this abroad. I know there's different platforms in germany, austria, but you need some identification and there's some other issues with that. But it was just a great time to even step away from the discord that I co-owned just twitter, all of that and just take some time for myself and be like all right, let's, let's just pretend sports aren't even on. I missed a third football game. That's the first football games I've missed in a while. The only sporting event I watched during the weekend was my friend who I traveled with as a cowboys fan. So we woke up at 3 am to watch uh, that cowboys eagles game. Oh yeah, it watched the first half, went back to sleep and then called that good enough on sports for the weekend. It felt great, honestly so did you sweat?
Speaker 2:did you sweat the games usually?
Speaker 1:ah yeah, um, I know you're not supposed to that's okay it's not so bad, but it depends on the game honestly. So, like an nba game, I don't know if I'll sweat as much, because usually I'm just taking some role players three pointer unders, yeah. Yeah, when that role player is in, I'm sweating hard, or? Or andre drumming double doubles. That's probably my favorite bet right now.
Speaker 1:He doesn't get them but when he gets that double double I will be rolling uh. But I'd say an nfl game. There's a lot of bets, I'll sweat uh. I'm big on women's college basketball right now okay I'll sweat those little bits what the box scores. Yeah, I'd say that for sure. Oh the box score.
Speaker 2:Sweat the espn app on your phone, sweat, I mean.
Speaker 1:Look, I always say, don't sweat you, I you'll catch me deleting and reinstalling the pga tour app on my phone many times over the year is it the pga tour app or is it like sometimes, to get a quicker feed, I go into the sportsbook tracker that says like, oh, they're 19 foot feet away from the hole, and then you check two seconds later, it's like just getting there 50 feet away from the hole yeah, exactly like go to caesars and do the img arena.
Speaker 2:Uh, in app stuff, yeah, that's.
Speaker 1:That's a, that's when I'm feeling really degenerate or on the year, or you know they always hit the birdie when you don't want them to always yeah, these, you never want them to make a birdie every single time our favorite, our favorite european tour guy actually is a.
Speaker 2:I think his name is joust uh luit, and oh yeah, yeah, yeah, we say juiced, it's more fun, but I think yeah, I'm probably gonna mess up his name, but I think I think it's juiced. No, I wish it was. Uh, we are just an observation, uh he's our.
Speaker 1:He's our discord emoji. I know you're a tony female guy. Yes, we're a joust, luit and guy, so wow, that's it.
Speaker 2:That's how you know. It's a sharp discord. If you're really like, if you're the joust luit and level of uh level of player to rep it, I love it. Yeah, we have tony fina the tony fina bought and I was really sweating him going to uh, going to live. That would have made had to make me make some tough decisions, but thank god he stayed pga tour player. Um well, I guess that we're already talking about golf. We can go to ryan's twitter question, which is the first one on the thread, and it is is golf dead for pickham? And ryan gave us two choices. He said yes, that's choice a, and then choice b is definitely oh, I'll take choicey.
Speaker 1:I'll say not completely. Um, on prize picks, I mean you can still bet two and three.
Speaker 2:Man, I think it's over is without a payout reduction um, yeah, there's a three man, it's like three, it's like two overs plus.
Speaker 1:Uh, uncorrelated or these are better on the yeah exactly, yeah, so there's. There's still a little bit. I mean obviously, like we had what? Over a hundred percent returns at one time over the summer when, yeah, I was posting all the wins on twitter, because that's what everyone did back then. I regret all of those. I will say yeah, but uh, pick, pick them wise.
Speaker 1:I mean underdog. When they have big tournaments you can correlate your under strokes with over birdies and over fantasy points and obviously that's not like a secret edge. They know that it's not like it's not, like they don't know, right. I'd say. Though, returns, they're probably in the what would you say 10 to 20 percent range, instead of our 100 percent crazy yeah yeah, with just two bogies and some random euro tour. And then the wind picks up and we all make 20 grand.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, when the weather, when the weather gets bad, you just start printing money back in the day because I mean we could do five like full correlated slips on underdog it's crazy.
Speaker 1:I'm jealous of your scissors days though. God uh, when you could correlate all of those and you know, draft kings, over the summer you had like a week where you do it, but I everyone made like tens and 20 grand.
Speaker 2:I lost like 8k yeah, it's just just one person was like the wrong person yeah yeah, I'm trying to even think about the dream I we might have even missed the draft kings ourselves. The scissors was one one week and pretty sure it was uh changed because of us, uh it was it was, it was, it was, it was.
Speaker 2:Obviously we like ran hot but it was just clicking in every single possible combination of everything um, over strokes, over strokes, you know, whatever. So that that that week was probably like I don't know hundreds of of four leg, five leg parlors and whatnot. And then, yeah, next week came back, couldn't do it, that's fine, but I mean, that's, that's the, that's the rub of it. Right, like anytime, the reason underdog took down the, the strokes correlation, was because they lost, you know, million dollars in a round at the british open.
Speaker 1:Yeah, probably more, uh yeah, I think that goes into a good conversation on like when an edge dies because people are, oh, this twitter person killed this edge, or this twitter person killed this edge. I personally think it's just a total risk reward sort of deal because, for example, well, casuals are not betting on a european open, uh events. You might have a few thousand bets go in right, probably handle like a hundred grand or something. Maybe even I'm overstating a hundred grand there, but you can see when the book is losing money on a specific event. They're not. They're not stupid. I mean, a lot of people say, oh, don't, don't do this because the books will figure it out no, the the books.
Speaker 2:Now the books know what's being on the book right right yeah, for like nfl.
Speaker 1:Obviously they're gonna let it last as long as possible because people are going on underdog. Now they're saying, oh, I want to bet jared goff, and says receivers, and I can't do that. What's happening, let me just go bet on prize picks, like why, yeah, I can't do that anymore. So the risk reward there obviously is just so many people are doing receptions and passing yards over and over and over and over and over and over, and now, right, I was like all right, gotta cut it. Uh, the total risk is just too much there. So there's, I feel like the bigger the sport, the longer your edge will last. The more niche the sport, the quicker your edge will die, like you were back during the disc golf days, right, dude the disc golf days.
Speaker 2:I remember we had that day we we were like spamming our, uh, our betting partners, being like we got you gotta do this for disc golf, you gotta do this for disc golf, you know, whatever this you know, and the three people we had uh didn't get back to us. So that day when it just like rained, you know the, that day when disc golf, uh, when disc golf died, we had a bunch of unfilled orders out there that would have made a lot of money. So but I mean, I'm happy to a bunch of people on the discord, made, made, uh made a bunch of money and I'm sure, as everyone did, I think, prize picks lost hundreds of thousands in disc golf that day, uh, at least I was just told the lines moved like five to ten strokes like it would start off, like, like the lines were so shaky on those events you know it's funny, it was prize picks.
Speaker 2:Response was like, uh, uh, like we can't offer disc golf. It doesn't live up to the expectations of the product we expect to deliver to our customers. And it's like no, your customers loved it, they loved it. That's not the problem, dude. That corporate, the corporate like the corporate bookmaking speak is so funny, honestly, with stuff like that and yeah, no, it's.
Speaker 1:That's a good signal where, if you're a new, better, and you see like some random sports or some random league that no one talks about, go to that. Look at it like I don't see a lot of people trying to predict valerant kills.
Speaker 2:If you're someone that wants to try the model that, do that, go for it like yeah, and the next one, next great thing, yeah um, in a lot of people do ask me like, hey, I want to start, you know, originating, or I want to start coming up with, uh, you know finding my niche, or whatever. How would you, what advice would you give to that person who maybe they hear this and they're like hey, I, I, you know, I know valerant, and like what should I do? What do you tell a person?
Speaker 1:yeah, yeah, that's where. That's where you go into just the whole like data gopher mode. I don't know if that's an official term, but I just made it up right now we can make it yeah see what's out there.
Speaker 1:You're like dig as much as possible. If there's sportsbook lines, great. If you have dfs apps offering lines, great. See who's high, who's low and track it. Find a source of data, look at it over and over and over. If you see hey, uh, I know we're not last five people, last 10 people, but you say, okay, every single match prize picks as three kills higher than underdog there's gotta be a reason why that's not just last five data that's one person's too high, one's person's too low.
Speaker 1:Let's figure out why and just do it over and, over, and, over and over again, and if you can find something and it starts working out, keep it to yourself wait?
Speaker 2:no, that's not what I heard.
Speaker 1:I heard you're just immediately put it on twitter honestly, there's a fine line like let's let me just go through my own tweets or my post in picket screenshots complaining about prize picks, goblins and demons and whatever yes, that was good content hockey goal scorers. I'm fine with that. Uh, w nca. Maybe I shouldn't post that, but a woman's college basketball has been fun uh, yeah, now I think it's a good.
Speaker 2:It's a good topic of conversation, like what? It's as old as time. It goes back to poker. It goes back to training sites like hard runners and runner ones, two plus two, whatever. It goes back even further to Super System with Doyle Brunson. I know he caught a lot of flak when he wrote that, but it's like what's the line? I don't know. I don't think anybody will ever agree on what the line is between what you should post, what you shouldn't post. But I do think if you're just thoughtful about it you'll come up to some reasonable conclusion. I didn't post. Hey, everybody underdog, you can do X, y, z. Even if you did, it doesn't matter. But the point is, I do think that there's this needle you got thread between blowing that job completely and teaching people how to find it. I don't know. I've never come to a conclusion on what the path is, but love to hear your thoughts.
Speaker 1:I guess this is where the podcastee becomes the podcaster, because what is in it for you on the education side? I can answer after that, but what's in it for you first?
Speaker 2:What's in it for me Down the line? Some opportunity to monetize. I think what's in it for me right now is I've made a lot of good connections which have been of monetary value to me. Educating people maybe one example is people who have more programming skills than me. I feel like I've given away some of my sports betting skills and then they've been more willing to interact with me and teach me what they know there's been. Even now, without selling anything, I've already come out ahead and I've already learned stuff. That's what's in it for me right now.
Speaker 1:We're probably very similar there. For me, it's A that as well. People have automated so many sheets. I can get data even quicker than you can on OddsJam just from people that know how to scrape all these websites and build a feed and build expected value calculators. I'm a project manager by trade, but I'm not the best coder. I can code some really scrappy sequel, but it's level zero. For the other side. It's a little bit of helping turn some of these more degenerate gamblers into smarter betters. There are a lot of people that come into my Discord saying, hey, I'm betting my VH. I'm like, first off, please don't do that. Second off, if you need to scratch that itch, I will help you learn how to at least make profitable plays. That's what's in it for me. People saying, hey, I have a problem Maybe not necessarily a problem, but hey, this is entertainment to me, but I want to make the entertainment a little more fun and profitable.
Speaker 1:That's what I'm there for. Here's how you can do this on this system to become a more profitable player. Here's a more niche sport on an app where you can bet and let's have fun and you can join a community and kind of sweat those bets together. Trust me, there's a lot of sweat on women's college basketball right now. When Kelsey bricks that three at the end, people go crazy.
Speaker 2:No, I think that's exactly right. You hit it spot on. That's kind of my free Discord is built around that premise of people have a place to go where they can tail some winning plays If they have to scratch that itch, community whatever and then if they want to improve anymore, then let's find a path to that. I think that's probably what's up. Next for me is, if you've gone from break even to making $30,000 a year or something, how can we get you to $100,000, $150,000? I think that's what I want to do down the line. But having that place to have people scratch that itch in a more fiscally responsible, fun way. You're kind of delivering on the promise of a casino, like the fake promise which is like have fun, win. You kind of do deliver on that if you're giving winning plays and creating a fun environment.
Speaker 1:I was at a casino last weekend making some very minus EV moves on the Blackjack table. In my mind I was counting the cards, but I'm never going to act on this knowledge because I am far too scared of a person to get kicked out of the casino. Also, I'm with my friends let's not get kicked out of the casino tonight. That's a little side of that too. There are a lot of people in the EV world that are like I can never do anything that goes against the expected value of the mindset of. As long as it's like 100th, 1,000th of a unit, you can have a little fun in the world.
Speaker 1:This life is short. There's a time and place where you can have fun, be a little loose, but as long as the majority of your day is that grinds, I see no reason where you can't just let loose a little bit at the end of it, Because I know there are a lot of people that are very tight in this industry and very much need to only do this to maximize. There's people that only care about the ROI graph on Peket. I swear to the God, people are obsessed with that one number. Hey, I'm one that has fun and I'm 11.71% on 183,000 profit. Right now you can have fun.
Speaker 2:Yeah, for sure, I've been pounding the table on ROI and not being the best metric recently. I would expand on that. Why may that be, if you agree with me?
Speaker 1:Yeah, I fully agree there. The ROI metric is if you're only obsessed about ROI, you're going to miss out on just your standard base plays of the day. What you should be playing are when college basketball opens. Hey, sharing edges here.
Speaker 1:When college basketball opens, there's lots of big disparities. Fandal and DraftKings will be two or three points off. Figure out which side you want to take, based on your preferred sharp of choice. You can choose Pinnacle. You can choose Bookmaker. You can choose whatever book you want in the world. Dig in, find out. That's what odds are out there for. Those are going to be 3-4% edges. Over time you're going to return 3-4%. Is that cool and sexy on a picket graph? Not really, not at all. Who cares what the picket graph shows in the end, as long as it shows you're profitable. Honestly, most books aren't even on picket. You're going to be betting a lot of books out there. I don't think sports battles on pickets. There's a lot of offshores that aren't on picket. There's betters not on picket. People have made hundreds of thousands of dollars on better. I've personally lost 10K on better, are you?
Speaker 2:limited.
Speaker 1:Not fully powered. Just the standard like whatever I bet a mistake, climbed it lost.
Speaker 2:Was it the NBA one?
Speaker 1:No, we can share this one now. Someone shared with me that I'll go back to the picket one after Mark Andrews, the scorer, won, receiving touchdown in the second half of this season. I attached it to every single play I made for that week. I had I think 20,000 ready to pay out. The second he crossed that goal line, the three yard line, mark Andrews goes down that hip tackle. Whatever that people want fans. Stoices Ligamensen out for the season.
Speaker 2:That's a bad beat. There's like fake bad beats. That's a true bad beat.
Speaker 1:I'll go back to the picket one after the other.
Speaker 1:In the end, as long as you're profitable, it doesn't matter what your ROI is. If there is a minimum threshold, I'll say that you should. If something's only half a percent EV or 0.75 percent EV, I'll see friends sign up for odds gym and say I bet every single thing on the EV page and down $2 today. I'm like well, why did you bet every single thing on the EV page? Let's first discuss that. Let's see what you're betting on, why you're betting on these specific things. Let's find a market that you want to find a niche on first. For me, I think, a great one to start with is college basketball. There's a ton of lines, a ton of data, tons of overs, unders, a ton of more niche schools playing where I've seen up to a 10 point disparity on opening. That's a great sport to start on. Maybe start diving into some NBA props or NFL props. Then try to shoot the main lines first. It's going to be tough. I'll be honest.
Speaker 1:Let's look at my picket graph right now. On main lines I am. Let's see where I'm at Live opens. Well, I can just no. I got it A few more. All right, on straight bets, plus 103 grand parlays, plus 70 grand round robins plus 8300. Player props plus 110 grand Money lines plus 2,000.
Speaker 2:I'm bad at money lines Well money lines are, I mean A I don't know what your volume there is A lot smaller.
Speaker 1:A lot smaller.
Speaker 2:yeah, no, I think this is what everyone says. It can't be said enough that you aren't going to win against the markets that are the most liquid right when you start. You're not going to go beat NFL sides five minutes before it kickoff because you just got an odds sham subscription. That just All right, go on.
Speaker 1:If I am, then I'm not going to be on picket, I'm going to be in Vegas.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that's right If you can. It's not. Yeah, exactly so. But I think there is something to be said for, like building a winning muscle. You know, I don't know.
Speaker 2:I think you know, whatever you do, it's important to you know, it's important to build a good process, build it for longevity, but, like, at a certain point you have to start winning, start winning and then see where that takes you. You know, expect to win from sports books, expect to sit down, log in, be somebody who's going to return, and then that will build into the more complicated stuff. You know. If then you get into modeling NFL totals that can win on Friday, that's awesome, but that's not going to be the first thing you do. Start winning, build the confidence, build the expectation that you're going to be these books and then push it from there.
Speaker 2:Like I don't think it's helpful to jump ahead and I don't think there's anything wrong from starting with doing like simple arbitrage stuff on Audsim or Steam Chasing, on Spank Odds or whatever it is, like anything that can get you winning and expecting to win, and then build from there. Like now you were saying something which I also believe in, which is you have basically like proprietary software that does a little bit better of a job for you than the public stuff that's out there and I think that's important. But yeah, do you want to touch on like why you like to have your own stuff at this point?
Speaker 1:Yeah, I'd say it's a mixture of my own stuff and what's out there. I mean I'll be honest, I probably pay like 800 a month in subscriptions across all these different services and code bases and AWS instances. I mean, at some point you're like, okay, I need to make sure my return is on. Yeah, I can make all these worth it. But I'd say I mean, honestly, the biggest thing in this industry is being first Like even having a discord that sends out plays and sends out different things to bet on.
Speaker 1:Still, 60% of what I bet is bumped by the time. Maybe even higher is bumped by the time. People can get to it. Like I want to help people, educate and learn so they can make their own plays similar to mine. But if you just want to tell me, sure, come on in. But having software, having software, having proprietary information, I mean you need to have, I mean any edge you can get over a the public and be you're trying to beat. These companies are trying to beat out on standard, trying to beat out DGF. I'm not saying these are bad companies. I mean I pay hundreds of dollars for them to because there's things they catch that are obviously better than ours. But it's just honestly, just being first and knowing what you can bet on.
Speaker 2:All right, sorry the same. We had to bring out the cranberry juice to open the window and get the camera right as we did in the past, right as we did in the Pick-Up Expert. Mike was talking about having proprietary info and data and the importance. Anyway, yeah, sorry about that. Hop back on that train of thought.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I mean some of what I've already said already just making sure you have as much information as possible to beat out these companies sending out picks and different data out there. Like I like Oddsj, I'm like DGF, I pay for both of them. I think they're great tools for very, very different purposes, but if you can build something that scrapes data and finds an eVCal quicker than those, you're going to be first. This whole industry is being first, because bets will change in seconds. From what I send out on my own Discord, I'd say, still 60% plus of it will be bumped by the time people get to it.
Speaker 1:I try to be as quick as possible, but anything out there is going to change so quickly. If you find a bet that is such great expected value and does not change quickly, you've found a hidden gem. I have a few of those that don't change as quick that I think are very good, but still testing them out right now. Those are far and few between. Maybe every year you'll find what will you say? Two to three of those. It's such great, what's that? Just don't change and you have that edge that you can keep for a month and then the buck will kill it eventually.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, I think that's. I think there's two ways to really win. One is be first and the other is be different. Being different is so hard, but that's where originating comes in. Where there's people out there that find something that's purely sports, data-based and not divviging-based, where that can last for a bit. But if they're hiding it, well, not sending it out to the wrong people who might back into what they're doing and whatnot. But yeah, eventually, even if you have something great that you're one of the only ones on which is be different, it'll probably start to get priced into the market.
Speaker 2:But, yeah, be faster, be different. I think those are the two ways to really make outsides with your money, sure.
Speaker 1:I mean, recently Fandall killed it. But I've talked about it with Dylan Garber and he listened to his version of this podcast and he learned me. He's like, hey, these second half NBA totals, they're really off. On Fandall I'm like, nah, you're just crazy. And then I start looking into it. I'm like, all right, let's just pick up Leggy Jackson, for example. He has 12 points at half and then his under over was 17 and a half. Okay, fine. And then you look at the 20 plus markets. Is Reggie Jackson's like plus 600. I'm like, is one basket really that much of an odds difference that it goes from minus 110 to plus 600? Let's think about it for a second. Yeah, and then kept looking into it, kept looking into it. And then he's like, oh, and prize picks rigs the lines. I don't believe that one. But let's say, prize picks has a high number. Prize picks says 18 and a half on Reggie.
Speaker 2:Jackson.
Speaker 1:Yeah, well, 17 and a half, the 20 plus the plus 600 has got to be good. Yeah, I can do all the Poisson distributions in the world, but let's just try it out. And then just head in for five 6,000 multiple nights a week.
Speaker 2:That's awesome and that's the thing. Like you find these little treasures. Like in the sportsbook software, they mess up, they can't be right about everything, and that's an example, a great example, of how people most of the time you just go clicking around or whatever Dylan goes clicking around and finds nothing, but occasionally what happens is something like that. He's like wait this is wrong.
Speaker 2:And then you see it and you're like huh, okay, let me just click around. It's probably wrong. I don't know how wrong it is, but it's wrong enough where I'm just going to bet. It Is that kind of like the mindset.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and that's where a lot of people go. I need to know the fair value. I think you and I both come from the sports betting reddit backgrounds. That's where I learned a lot of this. Not the traditional Alex Moynihan video, it's a lot of that's like okay, everything needs a fair value. That's how I'm characterizing the Reddit group, so you can post this on there and they can hate me. But sure, everything fair value.
Speaker 1:We need to calculate the expected value. You need to calculate the probabilities and here's a number of dvg books and this is overtime how much you're going to make taking this boost through this bet or like this specific thing. It's a great strategy. It'll make you money over time. But, like for those really questionable ones, like, try it out, try it with smaller units and if it's not working, you can always. You can always stop. But if it starts working like the stuff, like Reggie Jackson role player all over hammer it as much as you can get and then, if you want to go back during the day, during the morning, and start calculating, okay, what's the expected value of one extra Reggie Jackson basket, go for it.
Speaker 2:And I think that's honestly the biggest difference between people who make a lot of money and people who make like good money, because the spots where we've made like a ton of money, I've never known the fair value. I've just known it's really good because there wasn't enough time to know the fair value. It was a unique situation, it was weird. Whatever it was, I just couldn't tell you the fair value, but I could tell you it was really really good and then we just bet it for a lot, yeah, and you'll repeat what you said there a little spotty.
Speaker 2:Oh, sorry, yeah. What I was saying is like I think the difference between the people who make a lot of money and like decent money is being willing to like take a chance on a spot like that without needing to know the fair value.
Speaker 2:Because, when the times that I can look back and we've made like huge, like big, big amounts of money, it's always I've never known the fair value. I've always been like this is definitely good, I don't know how good, but I'm just going to bet it for this amount. That seems right and gone from there. It just it didn't really matter to me that I didn't know the exact fair value, because if you go through the process like you went through, you know it's good, what's the fair value? I mean, do we really need to spend? It's almost like wasting time, just go, just go bet it. And that's for people who like actually follow winning process. It's not like, oh yeah, like LeBron's going to revenge game. So the fair you know like no, it's make sure you know that you're actually, you know, following winning process. But I do think sometimes the fair value is overblown and the need to know exact Kelly, exact fair value. It's just not not time efficient.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and I feel like that goes into a big area of like live betting. Like live betting is this whole other beast Like I mean let's go into it. There's all these live or up a track accounts, live betting accounts, and that's like the new, hottest thing right now.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:I guess kind of what's what's your take on that? Because we're very, we come from a very traditional like let's find spot pregame, and then now I'm trying to figure out. Okay, let's try to do this live. It's very different.
Speaker 2:Yeah, my thoughts are I I think it's a good it's. You know, talking to Ed Miller, for example, like he indicated that live betting was one of the best best spots currently for the better. So I think it's a good spot. I don't have much experience in it. I could probably do it for golf with our model, but I don't really. It's not, it's not really top of mind for me. I think that the new live arbitrage trend on Twitter and you know whatnot I think it's it's. I mean it's catching on. I think it's value. I mean, do I think it's the best, best value? Maybe for some people, definitely. I think I still rather enjoy my life where I can find pregame value and not sit there all day, but I don't know it's it's it's value.
Speaker 1:Yeah, for me it's my biggest thing there is. I see two sides. I see a live Arab. I'm like all right, which side's actually the good one?
Speaker 2:Well, I think let's oh, definitely, definitely.
Speaker 1:I don't want to try to do, but I was talking with some arbors out there on Twitter and they're like, well, some books have more information than the other books and the best way to do that is to arb it. I'm like, is that really true? I still haven't really answered that specific question, but I guess my thoughts on the whole live arb thing. It's good, it's profitable, but it's stressful, like I tried it out for two days. I'm like I was clicking the Fandall and clicking the Draft Kings on Kings one except my bet. Now I just have a bet on Fandall, fandall right, or like it accepted my bet at one point lower, so now I have a reverse middle like yeah, yeah, exactly, exactly. This is fun, this is, this is a sweat. I did not want to sweat like the some Tulsa college basketball game. Now I'm hoping they don't end at 72 points in the first half.
Speaker 2:Sweating, sweating. A reverse middle is just like the least fun thing I can ever think about and like a Tulsa, like random basketball game. You just want no part of that.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:I mean, I think you're right. I also believe that I've talked to people who who do one side and they make. I think they make more money than the people who are doing the arbitrage. So that's that's a uh. Yeah, I didn't know it was going to come out with such a hot take, but my opinion is, the people that I've talked to who do do it really really well, take one side, but I don't know, I guess at me.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I mean, for me it's just figuring out which books are kind of off on that live stuff Like, okay, Draft Kings and Fandall are three points off on this first half total. Who's what's going into that? Is it cause one team went on a big run? Is it cause someone just shot a three pointer? Is it just cause strafing's forgot to include the three pointer, like there's got to be something and that's, that's the whole? I mean, that's why we both make a lot of money. Is we both see okay, there's something out there that's wrong? There's a disparity. Why, why? And let's figure it out and see how we can profit off of it.
Speaker 1:That's the biggest. That's the best question you can ask in this industry is why?
Speaker 2:Totally. Totally. I mean like there's money to be made without asking why which is interesting and which is fine, and I always encourage people to do that.
Speaker 2:Like, go get your money.
Speaker 2:Ultimately, if you just need some, you know not need some, oh my God, I always I don't want to like promote problem gambling.
Speaker 2:So it's like if you want to not do the hard stuff, not ask why you can still make money, and that's totally fine. Asking why is a really helpful way to add some longevity and outsized returns. Like asking why things have happened have, like I'm trying to think about how I say this there's in originating, like in modeling, a lot of the stuff that's that I've even added has come from asking why certain things happen in sports books, like backing into certain things with even within not like a devicking sense, like even within just appear like spitting out a number from a model based on sports data sense, like asking why things happen has also leads to that Like a lot of originating is backing into what other people are doing who are better than you at originating and who are moving the markets. Then you learn what they're doing. You're like oh okay, so I need to factor this in. So now I throw that into my model, now I'm the same as them and now I can go find something new so it's like asking what's up.
Speaker 1:Have you ever asked why to your own models too? Cause, like, for example, I don't know if you've seen, but like data golf projections on these alt turnies, not that great. So we've started building in our own, like, okay, let's pull in some wind data from uh Navy and let's factor that into what data golf is giving us. Let's add in our own why even to the models? So do you? Do you ask why to your own models? Oh, definitely.
Speaker 2:And asking why did data golf, data golf scores Aren't amazing? I will say data golf is an amazing company. I love, I love Matt, and will you my favorites. You have the best, uh, I would say the best public. You're the best public data company, sports data company there is when it comes to winning a betting. That being said, you're right, agree, anything that's Data golf isn't Incredibly Relying on what like the thing is. Data golf was built not to predict round scores. They were built to on traditional sports betting, so like it didn't matter as much In terms of like why they were built back in back in the day, which is like matchup betting, outright, anything that's that's. It's all relative. Now, like totals, like round scores are like totals and that's you know a different thing. So, yeah, I mean definitely asking why to what data golf is giving you for round scores is important.
Speaker 1:They definitely blew up the summer with all that. I think it was like mark very April that their forms went from like one post a day. It's like 20 people asking like, how do you get round scores? How do I do this?
Speaker 2:It's so funny. I love seeing that in the forums there's like another, you know another person like, oh my god, like Gotta find your username. But yeah, I, I, I agree, I think, yeah, like you have to, you have to question your own stuff.
Speaker 2:I mean there was a time we were getting absolutely marked by, but by an unnamed show of shark book. I will leave unnamed. But yeah, it turns out we were just wrong and they were right and that helped a lot. And Questioning your own model you have to. You have to question your model, you have to move it towards the market a little bit, like it's not gonna be 100% right.
Speaker 1:So that's, always always value. Yeah, and that's always a big thing. On like, how many books do you want to compare to when you're betting, or like market average versus like who's sharp, who's not, I think there. I think that was one of the Twitter questions actually.
Speaker 2:Yeah, let's go back to the Twitter questions. Well, first you show girls your picket. That was a yes. That was a yes.
Speaker 1:When I have dinner with people are like, when I meet new people, I don't talk about this at all. I'm not one that this. I don't want this to be my identity. I don't want it to be like something I have to talk about. If someone brings up DraftKings or Fandle or talks about betting at all, sure, I'll dive into this whole thing.
Speaker 1:But when I meet someone, this, this is, I mean, even though I do it, probably, let's say, 50 plus hours away, it's such a small part of my identity because it's something I'm good at, something I'm passionate about, but it's not something that. That's why I need to share on a daily basis. Like I'm totally happy talking about snowboarding, traveling and running marathons, like that's, I don't know it's, it's a really hard part. We can have a whole hour podcast on that. Just being an identity and what you share, what you don't share. A point for me I'm not not a big share. I'm happy to just kind of keep it floating, like if I'm with friends from college, of course, like okay, look, I made 200k doing this thing. Like do you want to know? Like I'm your friend, like let's figure out, or if you want to, if you want to make an account, then I can help you with that account, if you know what I'm saying.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah. So information, just selling Private touting, that's what I like to call betting partnerships. You know, it's just private. Nothing, nothing around tauts sports books. They promote tauts all the time. So I'm just, I'm just privately touting to customers and not not Not telling the sports books.
Speaker 1:All our podcast on like identity and no, the identity is interesting.
Speaker 2:I think it's also because Not a lot of people understand how it works. I think it's hard to have that conversation all the time.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I mean, that's part of right at discord too. Like people come in and say what are we like, what are the butts? Or like do you have any butts right now? I'm like I just can't create value out of thin air. I wish I could. That would be. That'd be so cool. Yeah, people like send me a prize pick slip.
Speaker 2:I'm like Don't have any now.
Speaker 1:I Insicuted a rule. I said if you ask me for a slip on a specific app, I will click three buttons, send it to you and that's the slip you get for me. Because if you're asking for something like I don't know what's out there, like I I'm tracking the market, I know what's good and if something's good I'll send it out, like don't worry, chill like yeah, yeah, that is, that is.
Speaker 2:That's the thing it's like. If you tell people that who you meet casually, they'll probably have a similar response to like yeah give me a price, fix, slip, yeah, what do? I do. I bet on the chiefs. You know it's like the chiefs game. Do I bet the chiefs to win? It's like no clip problem.
Speaker 1:No, it's funny. They're like, oh, who should I bet on this weekend? I'm like, oh, kevin Harris is gonna get a touchdown.
Speaker 2:Yeah, exactly, it's like not what they want to hear, not what they want to bet on Right at words a layer, kevin Harris and the Mario Davis.
Speaker 1:They're gonna all get touchdowns this weekend, hopefully and it's like they will.
Speaker 2:Maybe Probably not, but I love explaining to people like, yeah, this bet's gonna lose like 19 out of 20 times, but it's a good bet, they're like boy one.
Speaker 1:Okay, when Andre drumming gets that double mobile.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 1:That's right, I'll be you got 10 and 7 last night like we're getting there, we're almost there.
Speaker 2:This is a good see, this is a good. In Intel is like if Andre drumming gets a double double that's when you hit up, head up Mike for some advice or something He'll be feeling good. So yeah, keep an eye on.
Speaker 1:Jackson just got one and he was like 15 the one, so that was a good one.
Speaker 2:Not a, not a, not a game I'm I'm in, yet I'm not an NBA game yet really we haven't sweat some Mitchell Robinson double, doubles.
Speaker 1:ever I haven't studied any double doubles.
Speaker 2:I like come on, that's. It's kind of a fun bet though, um, but I I distracted you because I would do want to get to eat. To what was it? D? So Bonnie's question about Player props what book is sharp? Let's see. It's basically like I'll read the whole question Do you have any sportsbook? You consider the clear-cut leader and player props per league Example a DraftKings NBA player props being the sharpest? Think this would help a lot of plus EV and DFS beginners refine their process.
Speaker 1:Yeah, for beginners you want to use a market average. Trying to guess who's sharp and who's not is going to lose you money in the long run because All books have different varying factors for their bets. I mean I can say what I consider is sharp, but it's what I consider isn't necessarily like what's the truth. I do like DraftKings player props for NBA, but I still bet DraftKings player props and NBA because sometimes it disagrees with the market average. Fandal I consider pretty soft on most NBA props, but sometimes they're in islands and then everyone else moves up from. Let's say, luke goes at thirty two and a half on Fandal and thirty and a half on literally everywhere else. A lot of times the other books will all move up to thirty two and a half and sometimes Fandal move down to thirty and a half. So it depends per player, depends per team, depends per night, depends what solstice cycle we're on, like it's.
Speaker 1:I'd say Using as much data as possible will profit you more consistently long-term than trying to guess who's sharp because, done this for a while? Do I sometimes guess who's sharp? Yeah, I'll try it. And over time, as you refine your process, you say, hey, like this team's been consistently under for Fandal all the time. And then they open and they're still way too low. Okay, maybe try it out. But having a market average, having as many books as possible, having as much data as possible, that's what's gonna profit you in the most. On player props, it's sad to say, because you want me to say, oh, this one buck, super soft, go bet it make Hundreds of thousands of dollars. I can't do that, can't. I can't promise you that.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that's the problem. It always depends. People want More firm answers. I find it tricky Because someone be like oh, what's you know what's XYZ? Well, it depends, I don't know. I feel like it's so annoying. It's such an annoying answer, but it's true. You know it depends. Keep an eye on it. You know there's nothing, it's gonna change. What book sharp will change, change from year to year.
Speaker 1:And remember, like sports, books are made up of people and people leave books to go to other books and yeah, and what I'll say, too, is, if there's an orb big enough like I, have a filter on for 10% orbs, yeah, both sides of a bet can be good. That's also true. Someone says, oh, which side of this arm should I take? I say probably either side. There'll be. There's a lot of times on Twitter like someone will post this but I'm like I'm on the other side, but for, like, they'll say, I'm on on this for minus 130. I'm like, I'm on your, I'm fading you for plus 160. One of us will win, one of us will be happier. But hey, I'll be way happier winning plus 160. Then you will be hitting minus 130, right, that's right.
Speaker 2:Well it's about what size? Yeah, I, I agree with that. I, I agree with that. I think, I think, I think it's hard to. Really, I don't think there's like a formula. There is a formula, right. So like odd jam has a formula and DGF has a formula and every you know, whatever you build has a formula. But there's no like one formula. That's always gonna be the truth in sports betting. It's always gonna change. The market's gonna get new information.
Speaker 1:Did I hear? A pinnacle isn't the one all be all and all for all of betting. What?
Speaker 2:That's true. That's true. The pinnacle is quite good and I think they try and do a good job. It's. I think it's important to figure out who's trying to do a good job and who doesn't care. That matters. Matters how much Can be doesn't care at all.
Speaker 1:We can create a list. We can do this right now. Let's discuss who doesn't care Can. I don't think can be cares I don't think points bet cares. No, who else doesn't? I used to have Draft Kings on the list but I do think they care a little now. Yeah, hard rock doesn't care.
Speaker 2:No, no, not at all, because what hard rock can do is they can just, they can just take money back from people. I Good well.
Speaker 1:That way doesn't care. I'm just saying about books. I got limited on within like three minutes, yeah.
Speaker 2:So these books that don't care it's important to know this because, like I, really wouldn't find signal from their information because they're basically their business model doesn't revolve around their information being solid enough to provide signal, in my opinion.
Speaker 1:That's really important, because you'll go on lots of these odd scrapers and I'll say this bets good because of a comp to ESPN bets. I don't think it's been better, it was. Personally, I agree with that. I go that's when you go into these. So even on these like more proprietary or whatever sheets that I go on, it'll say, oh, this bets good on draft Kings because this ESPN bet line is off compared to draft Kings. I'm like I Don't know about that.
Speaker 2:Yes, do not want, or whatever it's like. And the other thing is, how many books Is it just ESPN bet, you know? Then you know that's basically out the window, like, like the. This is something I talked about with Shai's tea and it's understanding how these odd screens work, especially when they're spitting out like what they believe is a fair value. It's like, well, how do they get to that fair value?
Speaker 1:and they won't tell you, and they won't tell you but you can, you can back into it, you can back into it a little bit. Sometimes they have different weighting factors. Yeah, at least I've seen this throughout time. Like you, try the calculator, fair value and it's not always there. Like Again, companies are good. Keep all my subscriptions active, please. I will keep promoting you.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1:Building your own fair value. I mean, like, like we've said throughout this whole time, having as much information as possible is kind of what will make you most successful in this industry. Like Just trusting One source of data you might profit, like you're still probably gonna do all right. But if you want to go into the big games like I think we're both into the big games here like Then you really got to figure out, figure it out for yourself a little bit.
Speaker 2:That's it. That's exactly it, that's exactly it. And it takes time and it's not for everybody, but Like we are.
Speaker 1:There. That's why I take these bricks, though like I'll start a screen for like eight, nine hours, like whoo I need. I need to chill out a little bit and I'm like everyone else. I maintain a full-time job on the side. Like I'm putting in my work on the side and then trying to do that's crazy.
Speaker 2:I didn't actually know you had a full-time job on the side.
Speaker 1:I project manage cybersecurity teams and it's chill holiday season right now, but no, I put in my work and I like the job. I guess one piece of advice is have a little bit of ADHD in your repertoire. I can do a task, as probably shouldn't be saying these things on a podcast, but I'm a great multitasker A lot of things at one sentence. My minds can be in three places at one sentence. I can do all of it pretty well, I think.
Speaker 2:If the work gets done, that's all that matters, exactly.
Speaker 1:Work gets done, clients are happy, managers are happy and you're progressing at a rate that everyone's happy with. I'm completely cool with, however. Life progresses that way.
Speaker 2:Do you ever see a full-time move in your future?
Speaker 1:I don't know, I don't think. Well, I guess this is my hot-tag I don't think this industry will last as long as we hope it will.
Speaker 1:I mean, there's always going to be edges, there's always going to be profitable bets, there's always going to be a lot of ways to make money, but I think the biggest thing being, well, it just depends on you. This goes into a whole debate on economic factors. If the US economy starts struggling, books will limit people harder. They'll take promotions away, they'll offer less bets, they will only take parlays. Maybe there'll be a book that's just only takes partly bets, because now they have a 9% hold, I think over the entire market, versus straight bets which have 4% or 5% hold, something like that. I saw some data come out yesterday on that. So if the US economy keeps doing well enough, where people are betting and honestly, we need DGENs to fuel us, which is the sad thing.
Speaker 2:That's the sad thing.
Speaker 1:That are bad at betting to help fuel our profits from EV betting. I mean, it's kind of any industry. I work for a bank. I need people to be late on their credit card payments so we succeed as a bank. It's unfortunate and it's all capitalistic ways, but that is a whole different podcast.
Speaker 2:No, I saw someone write a post that it was like something about if you're a professional bettor, you can't pretend that your bet isn't made on a mattress of DGENs or some degenerate bettors or something like that, and I was like, yeah, that's probably true. I think it's better than being the book. You're still winning the sportsbook's money at the end of the day, but how much of it is up for grabs probably does depend on how many recreational bettors are losing money to that book.
Speaker 1:And for me it's all exciting. There's value for me in a career, in progressing and keeping at it. I do think that this can be a career for people and it's a valuable career, but I think for me, actually, what this does, it helps increase the skills in my careers. Like from this I'm learning more data scripting tools. I'm learning how to manage a server of 300 people that want bets for me 24 hours a day. Learn how to manage my time better, with trying to have a balance of sending out things, doing my own thing, working the other job and trying to maintain a life, which I don't know how I do. And thankfully I have no obligations, like I don't have kids, not married. So whoever, whatever girls want to see my picket, please come up.
Speaker 2:We'll post the link for the two girls that listen to this podcast. This will be. They might hit you up.
Speaker 1:One of them is my mom, so hopefully she doesn't. But yeah, no, it's. I mean, this is great, it's a long skills like there is. Like you said, you're learning Python, like I. Yeah, like how's that going?
Speaker 2:I love it. I was just I love it. I hate it. But today I was just literally like wrangling some, some files.
Speaker 2:The hard part about Python is it's it's not user friendly, especially from the jump. So there's a lot of like things have to be in the right folder and the right directory and all the stuff that doesn't have to happen in Excel, but I mean the, the powers is it's like 10x what you can do in Excel. It's crazy, and I am only learning it because I think it's going to make me more money betting. So would I be learning it without that? No, or at least I wouldn't be as devoted to it. And I I love that though, because I I put it out to the yesterday or something.
Speaker 2:It was like if, if you learn how to win money betting on your own not on your own, you, you just learn the skills and you find your own bats a little bit. Whatever that is, if you, if you learn and you make 10k, someone else blindly tails makes 20. The person who learned and made 10k has actually made way more money. It's just like it's money over their lifetime. That's going to happen, you know, through the skills they've built. So in the moment they made 10k loss, lifetime earnings for probably a million more, something I don't know, can't put another one in.
Speaker 1:But like I mean my, my debate is like if I ever stepped away from this, like would I, would I like need to get back in tomorrow. Like if I stepped away for three months right now, like would I feel like I need to scratch that edge. And for a lot of people like I know Drew, like he, he has to do this Like for three. Taking a break for him for three days is going to be a massive thing For me. I don't know I could, I could chill out and it honestly makes the comeback that much better. Like I took the five day break next week and made 21,000. Like, yeah, and you're relaxed.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I'm chill Like last night I made six K like on my one bets Can't share that one bet because secret, secrets, but yeah.
Speaker 2:I agree. I have more towards Drew, whether I have, I'm just like I don't know I need to take. I have a hard time taking breaks. Ultimately, yeah, like that's the truth.
Speaker 1:People call me the chillest guy out there, though, so you know that's right, no one's, no one has. People haven't called me that yet, but I know we have one more question we should get to, so people should yes.
Speaker 2:So people can answer our stuff.
Speaker 1:I can even read it.
Speaker 2:Is this the ladders one? Yeah, okay, mike went on a tear with ladders, but like to hear his process evaluating, evaluating alt lines and when to ladder.
Speaker 1:All right. So ladders I did a lot during NBA summer league on flip, which more alt markets that a lot of people don't bet. That's where you find your value. Sadly, what I do with ladders is because my Kelly criteria on like I'm working with a bank roll of over a hundred thousand. So it's telling me if I'm trying to bet one year on something has a thousand bucks, which still scares me Right. So I have to let it because on flip you can only bet $250. So if something says bet three quarter Kelly, I'm going to have to bet like every single bed in the ladder and you have to still analyze that every part of the ladders, ev and I right to mainline. But if one bet is as long as flip, doesn't do the flip thing where it's like.
Speaker 2:I know I was going to say flips the book. That's live to just yeah.
Speaker 1:Yeah, you have to make sure your ladder actually is ladder, because your ladder might reverse ladder. So you need to make sure the ladder is good but it's just betting up to the right. All it does is unit size and make sure that your sizing is accurate. And if you want to add a little more risk exposure, if you're just a normal better and say, hey, you want to bet one unit, let's say one unit's $10. If you want to bet 250 on plus 100, plus 130, plus 160 and plus 200, that's fine, you can increase your risk tolerance. If you want to go up the ladder a little bit, as long as it's all good to the main regular line, so that's the risk. So that's on main lines.
Speaker 1:On player props it's also similar Like if something says take 20 plus, look at the 25 plus line. It's seeing what's out there, seeing what can be good. And I mean that's where you kind of hit your home run plays Like sure you might lose a little more of your traditional like straight betting value. But it's kind of like with parlays. Parlays will increase your expected value as long as your parlane EV plays Right. Ladders can increase your overall EV as long as the plays are good. That's the most important thing. Once you start parlaying some random stuff out there, you're going to fall into the pit of hey, you might become a VIP account and we'll take your accounts and say yes we'll be happy with that.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, that's the trick, the VIP, and then hit up. Hit up Mike or hit up me, yeah.
Speaker 1:So ladders are just a way to increase your risk tolerance while not decreasing your EV.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's a unit size thing Exactly.
Speaker 1:It's fun, though and it's really fun to hit those too yeah, kobe White hitting seven threes, paying out a lot of money, like those are fun.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that's what I assumed. With the ladders it's all unit size and that's the other thing Like part of making more money betting is figuring out how to synthetically increase your unit size within what the book's allowing. So that could be ladders. It could be a parlays.
Speaker 1:Are they?
Speaker 2:allowing a certain on a straight and more on a parlay than Yep, I have been doing that a lot recently.
Speaker 1:So there's one draft Kings market. I really like that. It accepts like $300 on my straights, but if you parlay it with something, they take in $2,000 from me and said Okay.
Speaker 2:We've found that in certain books. We found that in certain books, definitely always if it's a unit thing and this goes for like I don't even know who's listening to this that needs this advice, because if you've gone to this bankroll size, you probably know about this. But, yeah, see what happens, see what they take. If it's a parlay, that would be. That would just take a look. That would be my best advice I can get right now.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I know you said this podcast for like $20 to $100k and we're talking big $1,000 units. Yeah, yeah, that's true.
Speaker 2:But yeah, it's all I loved, you know. I think another thing is like I listened to podcasts with gamblers that are much further ahead of me, and even listening to them talk about what they're doing, if anything, it's always interesting, so you know. Then the other thing is you might maybe you're limited and you're actually not, you know have a huge bankroll, but you do need to figure out how to increase your unit size on an account you're limited at. Well, then okay ladders, then okay, parlays and all this stuff. So there is, you know, there's application for people who might have a, you know, a pretty sad DraftKings account where they're only able to bet like $5 on something.
Speaker 1:Well, you know just take a look.
Speaker 2:I heard a story about someone who was able to get like synthetically get down like like 10K units on a limited, like DraftKings account back in the day or something and like he was, I think he was like sued by DraftKings. I don't know. This was a story I heard secondhand, but anyway, there's like ways. So always poke around, always be trying to find out things with regards to increasing your EV, increasing your sizing, whatever it is.
Speaker 1:I won't try the exact way, but I'll say I know people that have gotten banned from can be synthetically getting down more money to using some some tricks that they have. So there's always ways. But just know you might get removed from the platform. Sure, Sure, and that's honestly. And people get mad. They write into the gaming commission. As long as you're not having money unfairly taken away from you, books can do whatever they want to you. I know it's that's the whole like us versus books thing. Like you can get mad that you're limited. You can get mad that you can't bet this way, or that you got fans because you took an alt line that was plus 2000 and should have cost 200. Or bet 365 said we're changing your weight, but 365 does this all the time.
Speaker 1:They're like oh this should be minus one time, not plus 200. We're changing your wager, like you can back out of it if you want, but you have five minutes to do and good luck.
Speaker 2:That's shitty, I think.
Speaker 1:I think that's awful, but there's nothing really stopping books from doing whatever they want to us in a legal manner. I've had some books do some really sketchy things. They've waited. They've waited the winning wagers but kept losing wagers. I'm like, well, you can't do that.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, that I mean we've. Yeah, we, we've been rolled a couple of, we've been rolled for some some figures a couple of times. But yeah, I think, as long as you know, I think you have to understand that betting error lines or you know doing, you know synthetically, getting more down or just just being annoying, you could get kicked off. Okay, that's fine, that's a risk you have to accept. It's not the end be all, end all. But yeah, if your money gets sees, then you can kick, you can start to kick up a fuss, but you know being okay with the fact that you might get get the boot, that's okay, you know, you have to accept that.
Speaker 1:And I got banned from flip like a professional sweepstakes player yeah. Unfortunately, there are some really bad Atlanta Hawks lines I think the same ones that got drew up that um, why not? They're out there. I know a lot of mistake lines are just trying to catch people like us that just can't stop ourselves from getting them. They're hanging in that room and you're like take it, take it from us, and I'm like yeah, I'm coming.
Speaker 2:It's like they're a little little net. Yeah, I've always wondered about that. There's times when it's worth it, Like there's a time on a DraftGangs where they flipped. They flipped a golf line and we had a VIP uh connect who could get down massive size and I just said, all right, you know the EV on this is so huge, I know they don't void these, so rip it. We know we're going to get banned, but like we're going to get this bed in, Obviously it loses. So we lose like 20K or 15K or whatever it was Every time.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and then, of course, we also get limited to $3. But you know what, like I still felt like it was the right decision.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that's something I don't want to look at. I don't want to see, like, what percent of my biggest wagers lose, because I swear it's most of them. Like I bet a mistake to lay in line on the college football. Uh, like, whatever the championship games were, there was like plus three instead of like minus six. They got blown up by 30. Like that doesn't matter in the end, right, right, you're just like on that line.
Speaker 2:I'm like well and then they're like you're also not welcome. That's the best.
Speaker 1:Cesar's doesn't, thankfully. Uh, they're. They're pretty chill with what they do.
Speaker 2:Cesar's had a very unfavorable whatever. I don't even want to get into it, but Cesar's, I like Cesar's, but they also fuck those out of some money. But the state's telling that state of the morality of sportsbooks where the Cesar's who's, who's I feel like those tens of thousands of dollars. I'm still like, yeah, they're pretty cool.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that's the whole debate. I'm like we're family. I think they're great, I think everyone should get on it Well. As, legality aside, I know they're being sued in California. There's a lot of suspension. Oh, actually, biggest thing, research your books. Uh, if you're, yeah, like I'll, I'll name things. Like there's this book out right now, sport Zeno, that everyone's thinking about that, and I'm like don't, don't touch it. Like just just wait, wait, wait till. Like I need to see like proof of withdrawals recently. Yeah, uh, like someone betting on it's getting money out of it and like actual proof that it's legitimate. I've gotten money out of it. Yeah, just fine. I know some people that issues, but there's a lot of like personal. Like New York, you can't withdraw a certain amount. Some other states have certain issues and I think right now is on that fine teetering basis where I'm happy there. But if you have high risk tolerance, maybe don't do it. These new random books, sports, you know like don't touch it Uh.
Speaker 2:I don't even know that one.
Speaker 1:Yeah, look at a sport Z. I know it's another cartoony character.
Speaker 2:Oh, yeah, yeah, I did see that. I saw that yeah. And they're like, their TOCs were like, yeah, and then we might just not pay you and that's fine.
Speaker 1:I'm like don't go there. Or like look at who's being paid out. Like right now I'll name and shave. Like thrive isn't paying people out, you don't want to be on after those. Pay people out.
Speaker 2:Like I'm going to do a hot, hot take here, kind of I've been, but jock market too. I'm going to call them out.
Speaker 1:They have been suspiciously paying people out Like I've gotten money out of there, but it was like three months ago. I've gotten money out of drive. It was three months ago. Did I get screwed over by NHA? Yeah, like I lost like $7.50. There's some way to claim it, but it looks extremely painful and sending SSNs and things I don't want to do, yeah, and I'm just counting that as a lost cause Fair enough, and sometimes you just have to, like write things off as losses, you know.
Speaker 2:It's like, oh, what if that book screws you? It's like, yeah, there's some cost to doing business where you're going to get either someone's not going to pay you. It's a book You're not going to pay your money, or it's anything they're not going to pay you. And like, if you want to scale, that's just part of the equation, right?
Speaker 1:Or you go after the kneecaps.
Speaker 2:I'm not threatening enough to do that. I'm easy to scam, unfortunately.
Speaker 1:I guess. One last topic. No, you haven't asked me about the battle, sports battle. I was all to talk for a lake a few days. What was? I had the whole online battle with Sports Battle, where they didn't pay me for some. Oh, you don't know that one.
Speaker 2:I missed it. How did I miss that one? I'm so addicted to Twitter.
Speaker 1:Yeah, this was back in July or August I was betting on oh, it wasn't even online, all right. So yeah, sports Battle. It lets you combine multiple tennis games into one slip. So I was taking overgames and overbreaks from the other player in the same match and they graded the lines incorrectly and I called them out on it online. And then what they said was why don't you and your friends doing this? Just leave it alone, get away from us, shut up. I'm like doesn't this how you don't run a company?
Speaker 1:And then on Discord they named me and said if any of these people talk to you, do not respond to them. They're destroying our company's reputation. I'm just like. I just want an incorrect line to be fixed. That's all I want. Oh yeah, I took down all those tweets because in the end they paid me and I'm like we've been dogs lie in the end.
Speaker 2:But it's a whole online rule.
Speaker 1:So these companies, they can go out to get you. They put my email and a group of emails and said, in a way they shared all of our information across people and said get your money out, never talk to us again, never interact with us again. I'm like, hey, why are you sharing my email with some Randos Jill?
Speaker 2:That's so insane. Honestly, the butt hurt nature of the honestly people who don't know what they're doing. These people, they are mediocre, betters or whatever, and they think that they just can start a company and take money from recreational without having to know how to bet and I'm sorry that you posted shitty lines and now you're embarrassed and you're sad, but do better. I have no sympathy for that person and that for their side they're no sympathy at all.
Speaker 1:Sorry man and then they paid out. They paid out in only $500 principal checks, which was painful.
Speaker 2:What Like? I don't know if that's because they're struggling or they're just dicks.
Speaker 1:But I just have like a stack of checks from like printed out Sports battle. At the cut on the line and sign every single one mobile deposit. I'm like this is painful.
Speaker 2:Dude, how embarrassing, how embarrassing to just be mad that you don't understand correlation.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I mean offering the same player, offering opponents in a tennis match Underdog. You could do that over the summer during the US Open. That was a fun little edge and that's a good closing segment. Like, even as an edge goes, a new one will be born. Like there's no, like the whole death of the industry. Yes, I think it's harder now than it was before, but OK, let's look at December 21st 2024. There's going to be a ton of things we can bet on now that we won't be able to bet on then, and there'll be a ton of new things that we can bet on. That might be a cool edge, like, maybe fairways hit will be gone and you'll be crying Like we'll see it is gone.
Speaker 1:OK, it's already gone. That's bad. There's always an opportunity to find something out there, like there's so many things and as more people enter the industry, draftkings stock is doing well, there's more people betting parlays, so they're going for more parlay options. Now that they offer more parlay options, there's going to be something good out there. Figure out what that is Like. That's the whole going from kind of a beginner to learning how to use an odd screen and becoming interested in what data is out there to kind of really finding your niche. I know we're more advanced than the traditional sign up for odds jam, get a subscription and figure out what that is. That's fine. Do that, you'll make a decent bit of money. But advancing beyond that, that's where you really can really level up to Damn. I mean. I'm at over 100K in the last 100 days. That's pretty good.
Speaker 2:That is pretty, pretty good. That is pretty good. Yeah, I mean, you're exactly right, and it creates that longevity and it gets rid of that a little bit of the existential crisis of when an edge dies Because your process isn't built around a single edge. It's built around the process of finding edges which is different.
Speaker 1:It makes a great tweak, but that's what it's.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that's true. I mean, look, when an edge dies, you have to tweet about it and yell at underdog or whatever. You have to do it, or part of the game.
Speaker 1:But, it's like, oh, that's great thing, the best thing ever I found it. It's dead, like I'm the greatest. You got to do that one.
Speaker 2:Or you post finally after you're like, yeah, now I can post about this because it's dead. This was a good edge.
Speaker 1:I should write all the main dual outline slips. I've posted a few, but now I should be like here's all the tens of thousands I made on Reggie Jackson or Zubach Reggie.
Speaker 2:I've been 20 points, that's right. Hey look, I think that's honestly part of the fun is sharing some of the wins. But it's tricky to walk the line of. Are you giving anything away, even if the edge dies like, ok, you're posting the slips, why, I don't know. I do it sometimes For engagement, sure. But yeah, man, I do want to say you are incredibly sharp and I think people more and more need to go learn from people like you.
Speaker 2:Or finding stuff off-screen, finding that next level, because I do think the basic level of this thing comes on odd screen. You bet it, you win. You make 10,000 a month that doesn't exist and that won't exist, and should it exist, probably not. It's probably part of a really bullish moment in time for the industry, but there's always going to be stuff. Keep hunting for the edges. Let's get some people from that 20k a year tailing and doing odd screen stuff to making 100, doing some of their own stuff. I think that's exciting. I love that you're teaching that stuff in your Discord and on that path too. I think that's the exciting part.
Speaker 1:I haven't even plugged it yet. I haven't plugged it yet.
Speaker 2:We've alluded to it but we haven't plugged the actual. I'll link it in the stuff I send out. But do you want to give a quick Discord plug?
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's me Huey. He's ChewyPix on Twitter and Coop and Mitch. We've all been talking since May and just been interested in honestly just finding new edges, seeing what's out there, seeing what we can find out. We've started this and built a ton of bots from zero to where we're at now and had some great partners. Ethan Aziz is another good follow. Betricap is another good follow. A lot of his sheets I'm talking about proprietary stuff. You can sign up for his sheets. It's mostly what I use. Another good one is Vulture. His Discord is also great.
Speaker 2:Oh, I do follow Vulture on Twitter.
Speaker 1:He's a very good Discord, very good follow. You can build your own sheets that aren't even public. He gives you whole user access where you can create whoever you want is sharp, whatever player props you want, and then create your own sheets so you can refresh it whatever intervals you want.
Speaker 1:It's very user-intuitive and a great place to learn, that's awesome, but my stuff is SWT, won't tell you what it stands for, it's all secret. It's based off a golf tournament, though, so I can let you imagine what it means. But now we're in there all day, every day, and we're sending whatever we have access to. So if I'm going to stay with DraftGang Fandwall, I'll send whatever plays I play from there, as long as it's not bumps, and otherwise Mitch is our DFS guy. So lots of correlated hockey, lots of correlated football, lots of correlated soccer, and then, as always, the best women's college basketball picks. That's what I'm sending out on the daily right now.
Speaker 2:You've got to find your niche.
Speaker 1:I know the Gorgia Bulldogs sold a little bit, so we'll unfortunate there, but hit it back. Florida State won by like 80, which was a good one, Goddamn dude.
Speaker 2:They got to have a mercy rule.
Speaker 1:They do not let up Starters will be in. They're up 70. They're still hammering the rock. We love it there. It's also just a good place to learn, sweat and just kind of build that community. The whole. The biggest aspect is just having community of finding people who are sharp out there asking what the bet on and really just figure out how you can learn and grow. I mean, that's what your Discord does. You do it for free, so please join your stuff as well, but we have some automated stuff that I think is worth the follow and come join and talk to me, because I need to show girls my picket apparently.
Speaker 2:No, I do. Yeah, I kind of picture what I want for my Discord to be like the hotel in John Wick, where the other Discord owners come, put down your weapons, whatever. But you guys have a lot of more automated slips and whatnot, which is awesome. We have a couple of people who do a little more niche originating and then just send out crazy memes. I'll try and post something in there.
Speaker 1:That's thoughtful once in a while but, and whoever needs to reach out to me. I'm in GP's Discord as well, so you can add me on 9-7. I think I have notifications on I hope.
Speaker 2:Alright, we'll reach out to them.
Speaker 1:Yeah, we can talk.
Speaker 2:Cool. Well, thanks for coming on. I'll link your stuff in all the notes. Appreciate your time giving us some prime vacation time.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that's valuable time. So, yeah, we got the shot of.
Speaker 2:There we go there we go. That's right. Well, anyway, thanks Mike for coming on, appreciate you and enjoy the break. We'll be looking forward to seeing you back on the Twitter streets and the DFS streets within a couple of days, I'm sure.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I'm back on Sunday, so watch out Bucks.
Speaker 2:Watch out Bucks. Alright, well, thanks everybody for listening, watching, we're watching. However, you're viewing this and we'll see you on the next episode. Peace everyone.