A Sustainable Approach to Downswings (+RFQ IDs) | Ep 146

We get deep in our feelings in this episode. SP and GP talk about some of their worst downswings and how they have learned to handle them. A long discussion of the pros & cons of requester ids follows and then some great Q&A.

0:00 Downswings & Mixing Life + Betting

41:15 RFQ IDs: Should they be shown?

1:01:00 Rest of News

1:12:50 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_04 0:00

We've kind of proven right now, like losing the same amount of money in different ways can feel very, very different. So I think like that kind of cuts at like why is a downswing so difficult? But the the longer the time lapse, I think the more doubt, the more you allow doubt to creep in. GP and SP, and this time, this is the time we do an hour and a half episode. You said it before you came on. If we can't do it here, we can't do it ever. So I guess you guys will find out today.

SPEAKER_01 0:48

I think we I think we can do it. You know, we've had we've had this is two in a row of uh, you know, just us, so relatively sparse, you know, relative to other shows. So I I think we'll we'll have a first here.

SPEAKER_04 1:01

Yeah, I I think so. And today we're gonna talk about we're gonna get into our feelings a little bit, talk about um upswings and downswings. So we had a question last go round of questions. I know we like over were oversubscribed to questions, so it could have been from like weeks ago, but it was about it was basically like wanting to know about handling downswings. And um we said like we'd we'd like to do a full episode on that, and then we got a couple DMs about wanting that episode, you know. I I got a good one about like, you know, how do you go about your normal life when you're on a downswing, like you know, stuff like that. I thought it was, you know, I think everybody who listens to this is pretty involved in betting. So like these are, you know, this is the reality. Like everybody here is probably betting, having downswings, and having to kind of like, you know, go to the store and get their get their groceries uh, you know, after they lose like X amount of dollars. So I think uh I think it's it's good to talk about.

SPEAKER_01 2:09

Yeah, maybe, maybe let's let's start with like um people are always interested in like, you know, we don't have to get into numbers or anything, but like do you have a time where you you felt like was one of the roughest stretches for you?

SPEAKER_04 2:23

Yeah, there's two. One was in poker, so I'll just it was so long ago, like I've actually forgotten about it. So that's a pro tip. Like, wait like 15 years, and then it'll actually not be so painful. Um, the other was it was like September, it was fall of 2022, I think. I remember talking to Luke at the time. It was it was it was just me and him. And we were like, we were talking about like we were so early, we were like, oh, like the elite legality around this, right? Like around what we're doing, like finding runners, you know, sending them bets. Like, we weren't doing anything actually illegal, but like we're new to it, and we're just like circling our bases and trying to meet with lawyers, and so we're like talking to lawyers and trying to get in touch, and as we're doing this, we're just having the absolute worst downside anytime you like any bet, it felt like it was just a lose. I I think everybody can relate to this, like just the the place bet button is just a lose money button, and we're on the call and we're like you know, spending money talking to these lawyers. And Luke goes, he goes, I mean, is it illegal if all you do is just lose money?

SPEAKER_01 3:38

I think everybody can relate to that feeling of just like you know, placing a bet. It's just like you've already chalked it up in your head, it's like this is lost. Like if it's like even close, that seems like a win at this point.

SPEAKER_03 3:50

Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Like if it close if it like voids, you're like, whoo's gotta wait with one?

SPEAKER_01 3:57

Yeah, yeah. I think that I have a couple. Um, but like I think one of the you know, it's interesting when you start with poker, you know, and I'm I'm I'm guessing you you share this sentiment because we've talked about it a little bit before, but when when I was playing DFS more seriously, like it felt much worse, I feel, or I felt uh some respects I was younger, right? And just less experienced like with all this stuff. So hopefully I'm just more mature and whatnot. But I think it was way easier to go and like tilt when you knew the people you were losing to, or it was like you know, even worse, like a 1v1 or you know, playing one person or something. So there's yeah, I was actually trying before this episode, I didn't have enough time. I was trying to go back and look at some of these. Um I was trying to pull like some of the games I used to play, whether it be DFS or Pick Six or the you know the DFS Pickums to see like how bad of runs I truly went on. I have a couple data points, but like I just know it would it would be insane to most people who don't, you know, fully grasp variants and how bad you can run um to go through some of that.

SPEAKER_04 5:02

So yeah, I thought you were gonna go a different way with that when you talked about poker and DFS because I agree, like losing to people is so frustrating. Like I just only want myself to win and nobody else, so that's annoying. But I thought you were gonna talk about like playing either like large field poker tournaments or like large field DFS, where like you don't even know if you're in a dance wing.

SPEAKER_01 5:25

It's like well, as you that was the other, you know. I guess we you know, talking about it, like that's one of the things that I think has benefited me. And I think it it depends a lot on like what type of better you are, like how immune to this you become. I had the I, you know, just when I'm to frame this conversation as we get into it, like I had the benefit of playing, you know, like from day one, my first types of gambling would have been like at best, like at smallest for the most part, would have been like 10 to 1 contests if I'm like in a 10-person field. So like that is they pretty like long odds just to like start with. And so you have like a appreciation of like I'm not gonna win every day. Whereas I think people, and maybe that's how most people are who who get into it, like at least recreational ish people who get into it with like SGPs and stuff today, um, they probably have that sort of appreciation in the same way. But if you're like getting into trying like grind bonuses and you know, like top-down bet and whatnot, I don't think you're gonna have that same appreciation. You're you know, like losing days are which is like you know, par for the like it would be abnormal to not lose money on a day if you're like a DFS player and if you're playing anything more than like heads to heads and stuff. Um, so I definitely had that benefit, but it made it has made like this to some extent, it also makes like you numb to certain things maybe you shouldn't be numb to. Um yeah, you know, so it cuts off.

SPEAKER_04 6:53

I think like numb versus like handling it healthily is gonna be an interesting like topic of discussion because both can look similar.

SPEAKER_01 7:03

Only outside, certainly, yeah.

SPEAKER_04 7:04

Exactly. But like I think one thing like I thought, and we can we can get into a little bit more, but like I thought like being numb was like an adequate solution to this, like long term, and I've changed my opinion. That's a Bayesian update, is I've changed my opinion on that. That's not well.

SPEAKER_01 7:23

I think that you know, in you know, this is gonna intermingle with like life outside of gambling and everything, but like the numb strategy is probably like optimal if you like have nothing going on in your life except gambling. But like it is hard to like function as a you know, a spouse, as you know, friend, whatever, like just with you know, your job, if like you just think like if your strategy is just gonna be to be like totally numb to it. Um, like I also think that like you know, this this is gonna be a hard topic to talk about because like it there's there's aspects where we're gonna talk about it where advice or perspective that we have would be appropriate for some subset of people, but also like very not appropriate for another subset of people. Like, I think the way we're gonna talk about this like is clearly not geared towards people who are losing, have problems gambling, etc. Like that is is like a totally different topic that I don't I'll speak for myself. Like, I'm not you know well qualified to talk about any of that. So like when I'm talking about, I'm talking about like people like me who are you know really taking it seriously and trying to win, and like not I know there's probably like everybody can tell themselves that, but like at the end of the day, you you should know what you are, you know, like yeah, you can look in the mirror and know know what you are or not.

SPEAKER_04 8:47

Yeah, yeah, I think that's a good point. Like, I I think we probably without saying it when we pick this topic, like went into it saying it's from the perspective of somebody who's a long-term expected winner, like a downswing that is part of a broad uptrend.

SPEAKER_01 9:06

Yeah, so like if you're listening to this and you've like always lost at sports betting, like please don't hear us say like like I'm I'm happy you're listening. Hopefully you keep getting better, but like please don't hear us say, you know, like the the way to keep going or whatever, and think like this is me, because it's not it's not geared for for you, probably.

SPEAKER_04 9:27

And if you've listened to our show for like months and are still losing, like even though we talked for two hours, that's on us. We're sorry. And our guests, honestly. I'm gonna blame some of them too. They should have taught you better too. Um okay, well, I want to get into a couple like what I want to get into one clarification around downswings. I I want to hear I think it's fun to talk about this because we all like when you're in a downswing, you don't really want to talk about it uh generally. So it's like interesting to hear how other people think about this. But I think there's a big, big, big difference between having like a really bad losing day and being in a downswing. And I was thinking about this, like, if in one day, like I can think of some big losses like the Ryder Cup and you know, whatever. I've talked about a few of them. And like I would rather lose like you know, 200k in one day than lose like 10 grand a day for 20 days straight, or like some equivalent, like some obviously that's like a weird thing to lose exactly 10 grand, but you know what I mean, like some close approximatization that adds up to 200k over 20 days. Those are very, very different, and like I think like you know, to me, there's a clear preference to just take like one big whack instead of just like slogging out, just lose, lose, lose, lose. Like, I'd love to hear your your thoughts on that.

SPEAKER_01 11:02

No, I think that's 100% accurate. I'm not sure if I've ever really thought about like that in detail, but like it's just human psychology. It's like the opposite framing of people who like feel like they need to get even or be up every day. Like it's the exact same. To me, that's like the flip side of the coin, where like being up a little bit is like way more satisfying than being down a little bit, whereas being like up a medium amount is not that much more satisfying than being up a little bit. Like the you know, like the utility curve is just different. Uh I don't know what that I can't remember. Is that prospect theory or something? I don't know, one of those.

SPEAKER_04 11:41

Um cognitive biases or whatever.

SPEAKER_01 11:44

Yeah, but like so, so yeah, yeah, no, I I 100% agree because I think the the time dimension like weighs on you in a way that there's like a time dimension and like a money dimension. And when you have both going like the wrong way, um because like it can even be tilting if you have like a really good, like to give an extreme version, it can even be really, really tilting if you have like what you think is like a good strategy, but you're just like breaking even like day after day. Like that is that is also equal, like so that to me that proves your point that it's not always just like a losing money thing, is it downswing? It's just like a prolonged time where you feel like you're wasting time or wasting effort or like not seeing results, like all of that. I I I think I think it's a good split and is honestly probably for most people. I think most people would agree with you. I think I would.

SPEAKER_04 12:36

And I have one other theory, like I think it's good to like break down what is a downswing and why is it tough is obviously like we've kind of proven right now, like losing the same amount of money in different ways can feel very, very different. So I think like that kind of cuts at like why is a downswing so difficult? But the the longer the time lapse, I think the more doubt, the more you allow doubt to creep in. Am I is this a winning strategy? Am I a winner? Will I ever win again? Like, I'd be lying if I haven't thought all of those thoughts like so many times over my betting career. And no mat no matter like looking at your your past results or whatever, like it doesn't really, you know. I I I found like it minimally helps at best, like convince yourself that you're um for sure a winner. And I think like, and I'll I can get in, I'll talk about this, but I think like a key thing in downswings is to like either just keep telling yourself that you're winning better. And this is like SP says, like, this is for winning betters.

SPEAKER_03 13:43

So like this advice cuts very much.

SPEAKER_01 13:45

I knew that we were gonna get here, so that's why I like I I felt like we needed to caveat that.

SPEAKER_04 13:49

Right, right, exactly. But that to me is the absolute key of surviving a downswing is to do everything you can to talk positively and like really remind yourself you're winning better, however, you can get yourself to do it. You could literally tell it to yourself in the mirror, you could write it, slap a sticky note, wherever. But I think to me, like that's the crux of it, because why a downswing is so much worse than like losing a big amount in one day to me is the doubt it creates about like, are you a winner? And then what that means to your brain is like, oh, if I'm not a winner, I'm gonna run out of money. I need to like do something else, or I need to figure out, you know, like it creates all these other really bad situations. Whereas if you take a big loss, you get unlucky, you're like, ah, whatever. But like the downswing brings into um question a lot of more serious concerns, so which kind of revolve around you not being you kind of thinking you're you're you might not be a winner, you might not be able to do this for you know however long. So to me, that's the the crux of it.

SPEAKER_01 14:53

Well, let it when you were talking about that, it made me let me pose a question to you. Like, what would you would you so let's say you you go on a downswing for a month, you're not doing well, losing money, like whatever, over a month, and then at the end of the month, you realize you're you're you're working real hard to try and figure out like what's going on. You figure out it was like some sort of mistake that looks really like stupid in in hindsight that you were making, whatever you want to call that. Like it could be like a true bug or just something you should have been thinking of or otherwise. Like, would that would that make you more tilted or less? Less. I think I would answer the same thing. Because I think I'm happy like different personalities could be different, because like I could imagine like that's happened to me, and I also have been like extremely tilted for me not thinking about that and just like so like like basically kicking yourself, you know, for not right thinking about that. On the other hand, like the obvious positives, then you like have a a chance to fix something, right?

SPEAKER_04 15:54

Yeah, exactly. Like what I would say in that situation is that you're you're mad, but you're only really mad about something like you can't change. And what you're the reality of the situation is you were just gifted this like a magic button to solve your problems, you know, which is pretty great.

SPEAKER_01 16:14

Yeah, I mean that that's how I that's how I honestly that sort of lenses how I generally have looked at like when I'm like if a game, like if I have a very strong opinion on something, and obviously one game is one game or whatever, but if I have like a hypothesis how something works and it and it doesn't work that way, I think in general that's what I try and tell myself is like I've I've learned like yes, this was a failure, but I've learned something that is going to be um you know like very beneficial going forward. And obviously that's like a pretty cheesy way of looking at it, but I just sort of even look at like looking at it through like a math or modeling lens. If like something happens where I'm like, wow, I didn't capture that at all. I'm like, okay, well, you know, now like going forward, the the numbers, the model, the whatever will be capturing like this phenomenon. Um to try and make myself feel better about it.

SPEAKER_04 17:07

Well, that's what Rufus said, you know, we were talking about with him. He was like, it was something like money loss, but he made it his like quote on Call Shi. It's like money, or it's like money loss is an investment in future winnings or something. He made that like his profile quote. And it's like, you know, what you know, you make you something kind of clever or whatever you want to funny. Your, I think I forget what yours is now, but yours what yours has been. Mine is like hot dogs and yeah, right, right. But like it's true, but for that to resonate with you, you also have to believe that you have the long-term capacity to win. And when you do, and you can like remind yourself of that, then it's easier to be like, well, this is like if you made mistakes during this downswing. And I I think like one thing I've always said about you know downswings is just like do some more work. Like it's not gonna do you any harm and you feel like you have some control over it, but like if you've been making mistakes and you still view yourself as a long-term winner while you're in a downswing, and you can actually convince yourself that those mistakes are gonna generate EV for you in the future, then if you're like thinking like I suck, you know, whatever, you're like, well, these mistakes, that's money I'll never get back, and those will never pay off for me, you know. So I think like in going back to that point of like trying to remind yourself and build your confidence is is key.

SPEAKER_01 18:37

Yeah, I think I think the other way I think about it is every I try and remind myself of this. Anytime I'm going through a downswing, like, because I've been if you've been doing this long enough, like you anybody would have been through many at this point. And this is probably just like this probably extends to even outside of betting, but what seemed like a big big deal at the time ultimately ends up like not being a big deal if you keep working and trying to get better. So, like whatever was a big swing for me three years ago is like not would hopefully not be a big swing for me today. And so I think if you just like you know, like are able to to put yourself back in those moments where they seem like really big deals, um, it can help, you know, and that's where you get into some like, you know, I'm always you know it's interesting how you brought up the numb point. Like I don't know, I don't know what the healthiest balance of that is. Like, I think it's hard to gamble for a long time and not like have some of that numbness. Um but like that's where it it cannot phase you as much because you realize like this has happened before. And if I always I always picture it as like um, if you imagine some like line graph that's going up and to the right, and hopefully that's like your you know your profits and whatnot over time. Like if you zoomed in on any individual week, it's gonna look like really, really spiky. But if you zoom far enough out, it's gonna be like very smooth and it's not gonna capture like this would be true of like stock prices or whatever. Like if you zoom in, it's gonna be um very volatile. But the farther you zoom out, like the what looks like something that would make you really emotional in a week or whatever is like just not even visible on the graph. And so that's also the other thing I like try and visualize for me is like this is a very zoomed, like what's making me angry right now, or whatever, is a very zoomed in part of the graph. And if I zoom out, like at the and again, it's a it's a balance because you could go down like a total apathetic route of like, and I think a lot of gamblers do of like totally lose perspective on money and like the importance of it of anything because they just turn into complete apathy bots. But um, yeah, so it's it's a it's a balance, but those are some of the things I think about.

SPEAKER_04 21:00

It's it's all one long session, right? That was like a common thing in in poker, but to the graph thing, like in Holden Manager or Poker Tracker, which were like the two kind of like you know, whatever the poker tracking software that people who played online used. Like, I would remember like during a day, I would see, especially when I was playing like heads up or spinning goes, during a day, you know, you would just be infuriated, and you'd your daily graph would be like just look like an absolute disaster, and you're just fuming, and and then like you go back, you know, whatever, you go to your next day, and then like a month later you kind of pull up like your monthly graph, and then you see like, oh yeah, that was like kind of bad. And then you pull up like your yearly and you're like, Where is it? Where was that? You know, it's like right.

SPEAKER_01 21:51

And you were so angry at the time, probably that you can't, you know. That's exactly the point.

SPEAKER_04 21:57

Right. Um, I wanted to because you Talking about the numb thing, I wanted to kind of talk about like kind of manage like your because I think people want to know what we thought about how to you know you know us. We're we're so we're very social, you know, um lead these really big lives, you know, have how do we manage it all? Yeah, how do we manage it all during a downswing? Um so so I call this like downswing mix with uh mixing with everyday life. So I think like the big issue with just gambling in general, but a downswing kind of magnifies it in in day-to-day is like it makes it a lot harder to be present. I've heard that you know, I believe this. I think I'd love to hear your thoughts on that, but I think I've heard a lot of other people kind of say the same thing. And a downswing just kind of like um I'd say kind of cranks that to 11, like because it it now you're kind of frustrated. Oh, you know, whatever, like I don't care about this. I'd be able to be present, you know. If I wasn't in a downswing, like I could be present here, like I'm not somebody who can't be present, but if I'm not, you know, but I'm in a downswing, so I'm just gonna, you know, be soul can be in my mind, in my head. This stuff, this is like me talking. Um, but one thing I always heard, which I now disagree with, was people in especially in poker, be like, oh, I like to talk to other poker players or other gamblers because they get it. I can't talk about this with anybody else, but I think that just like really creates like even more separation between gambling and and your normal life. I'm not saying like go talk numbers about your downstream with everybody in your life, but like if you're married, like you can be like, hey, I lost like you were in a really bad losing streak. You can say a number, you don't have to say a number. But just like opening up about that and like talking to somebody who's like not only in gambling, I think actually does a lot of good. And like you can talk about this to people who aren't um who are your friends and like you want to share things with and like don't gamble. I still think it's like you can explain it to them in a way where if they know you and they kind of like care about you, you can explain it to them in a way where like it can be a good conversation, it can make you feel better. So that's like one thing that early in my my career, like I never did. I like never talk about anything to do with like winning, losing anything I'm betting with anybody outside betting, but I think it like silos you off too much and it creates more separation.

SPEAKER_01 24:47

Yeah, I mean it that that makes a lot a ton of sense to me. I'm obviously like newer into like you know, I I'm I haven't had like a a group of people to talk about betting like my whole life. Most of us it was just sort of like at least like betting people, really just like me and the people like in my life who aren't betting people. Um but yeah, I mean like at the end of the day, most of the betting people like that you would talk to, like that's great now. But the reality is probably most of them are like also share some of like the numbness to it.

SPEAKER_04 25:20

Um or their upswings and downswings.

SPEAKER_01 25:24

Right. So there's benefits because they like under they probably like they I understand that like where that advice is coming from because they've got like the idea is they've gone through it, but at the like on the flip side of it is like they might also not be like the healthiest, most equipped people to like give you perspective on what matters and what doesn't, um, because they you know, like they also might be like ruminating or have you know recently all of that stuff. So yeah, I mean I think I think probably like a balance makes sense. I mean, I definitely think getting exposure to like people, because one of the things that I had wrote written down about this is like I feel like it's so damaging and like it tilts me worse, like the way Twitter, leaderboards, picket, like all of these things these days, like it just jammed in your face that, and this was true in DFS, like back in the day, like you know, there's enough DFS players and like content sites on Twitter that like literally every night they could post like a screenshot of whoever was winning because like you know, there's just so many you know, people, yeah. And it just like would, you know, you're in a downswing and it every night it seems like someone is winning. Yeah, like someone you know is winning 100k. Like it that doesn't take into account, like it's a different person every night or whatever. Um, and that's how it is, like on Twitter or or whatever, like now the Calchi leaderboards or whatever. Like you just every month or week or whatever, you're always gonna see like someone post someone you know, like posting something that they like made a lot of money, you know, and it's like that's if if you're like running bad, that like only for it makes you feel like you're the only person not making money. I think at the I have a tweet that I retweet at the end of each year. It's it's something along the lines of like, you know, happy new year, you're the only, you know, everybody's more successful than you, made more money than you. You should feel bad about yourself because like all the pickets roll in at the end of the year. And um, you know, that was from several years ago when like all the DFS stuff is bigger and everybody's doing that. That's less of the case now. But I think the same thing happens like with will will happen with like these leaderboards and other stuff. Like it just always jammed in your face that someone's making a lot of money, and it can it can be hard to um like normalize the fact that like because you only see the highlights, right? Like you only see when someone's like doing really well. They that's what I've always tried to tell myself is like the people who post, like how well they're doing. If I don't see them post for like a month or something, I'm like, okay, you know, like I need to I'm good. I need to replace that means that means they're probably doing really bad. So like next time they post, then it's not gonna tilt me as bad because you know, clearly they post when they're doing well. So like if they're you know they don't post and they're not, then they're probably doing not too well. And so like it's not that I wish because I I've thought about this a lot. Like, it's not that I wish, you know, I think everybody like in gambling is competitive and has some like aspects where you said, like, I want to be the only one who makes money and everybody else should lose. But it's so it's it's not really that, it's just that I I think it's hard to see you just don't see the losing. And so having like having people who you can actually talk to are like I did something really dumb, or I'm like on a horrible run. I think it's just human nature that that makes you feel better, at least it does for me.

SPEAKER_04 28:47

Yeah, I I I mean, I think that goes to like why well, I think it's interesting what you said is like reminding because it I think there's like two two parts to that. I guess the first part that you that was great was talking about how you only see the winning. And like I I guess I don't get as many pickets or like I don't know, pickets have like actually just lost, like like my brain doesn't register them anymore.

SPEAKER_01 29:16

So no, it's like new tools and stuff like that. It's like all the prediction market leaderboard stuff at the end of the month.

SPEAKER_04 29:23

Yeah, like obviously, like it is interesting because like you can have you can have like a good day. Like I I think like it was funny is I was like, well, I was like, oh, everybody's like not showing their profit, or you know, people are kind of going off the leaderboards. And I was like, well, I I want to at least have volume on the leaderboard, but like our profit was like our call she profit was like at least public profit was like down. I was like, well, I can't like delete my I can't like go off the leaderboard now, or people are gonna think like I lost and then like steamed and then didn't show my profit. So I was like, well, I can't not show it now. But it's like, why am I like you're thinking about that? Like the fact that you're thinking about that is like uh like you know, obviously you still have to you want to act optimally, but like yeah, you don't see like a lot of people probably like you know, I don't want to call out flop, but you know, flop is on and off of that thing, like like nobody's business. Um wow shots.

SPEAKER_01 30:29

No, I mean, like the leaderboard stuff, like I've thought about this a little bit because we've gotten a couple questions about it. I think the original question that spurred us doing this topic was like, how do you deal with you know down swings? I imagine it's tilting, especially like when it's public or whatever.

SPEAKER_04 30:43

Yeah, uh and the funny thing was like that was like probably like whatever it was on on Call She when that question came out, like we we were probably on like a 300k downswing, and obviously you have like volume incentives and stuff, like it's not it's not as you know, not as bad as it looks, but like there's it was pretty bad, but it wasn't like that one I wasn't really thinking about as much, which is interesting.

SPEAKER_01 31:18

I think the point of of what what is a big deal to you is always gonna like some whatever is a big deal to you is always not gonna be a big deal to other people who are bigger and better than you, and it's always gonna be a huge deal to people who might aren't quite as far along as you, and that's the challenge with like the leaderboards and everything is it just um it puts you in a comparison with like everybody, right? Right, and like you're all not really playing the same game. Like, like I don't, you know, I don't view what I'm doing as playing the same game as you. I don't view, you know, it's just in terms of size, scale, everything. So, but like it's hard to not get sucked into that when it's there. So like I'm I've teetered, like I'm I'm you know, it's it's gotta be negative life EV to be on that leaderboard. Like it's got to be.

SPEAKER_04 32:07

Do you feel like it at least like kind of gives some proof of concept for our show, though?

SPEAKER_01 32:13

That's the only reason I I originally like that's the only reason I'm on, and I don't know if that's totally lame or or what.

SPEAKER_04 32:21

I think that's fair.

SPEAKER_01 32:23

Yeah. Because I mean at this point in my life, too, like it doesn't like if I was eight years younger, it would tilt me. Like I would be obsessed, obsessive over it. Yeah. Um yeah, at this point, like it is what it is, you know.

SPEAKER_04 32:40

Like I don't I actually check the volume. Like, it is funny because like if I like slide to if we slide too far down the volume one, I'm like, that tilts me.

SPEAKER_01 32:51

Like I'm like, yeah, I mean but uh the thing is like it's really interesting. Like I think it's it's like a really like it's interesting that they have it, and I'm happy that more people like like I obviously not everybody participates, and the top people obviously don't for a lot of obvious reasons, but I I think it's really interesting, and um I think it's a really great, like it's an amazing marketing idea. Um, it's like the Roto Grinders leaderboard for Dives on steroids because it's like it's not just like volume, it's like actual, you know, other you know, all three, you know, metrics and whatnot. So it's like amazing. So but it it you know, like if you're someone who's gonna obsess over that, like I would it's it, you know, you don't have a podcast, I would say. And I don't know if it's debatable even if it's worth it with a podcast, it probably isn't. But like I for a normal person, I think it would a hundred percent be negative EV to be on that. I don't know what the unless unless you're trying to like you know, get get an internship. There's a perfect case. Get an internship or something similar, meaning like you nobody like if you're if you're on Twitter and nobody knows you and it's you know we've done the networking episodes, like how to get out there and stuff, like then I could understand it. Like that's that's a legitimate thing.

SPEAKER_04 34:09

So yeah, exactly. Like if you're doing it for a purpose, that's that's great. Because but if it's like it is fun, like it is funny you mentioned the thing, like a big deal to you is like not. I was with uh Rufus and his brother Tom, and they're like probably the biggest public winners on on Call Street, I think, at this point. I don't know. Sometimes big people come public and go private, but I was like looking at I like check calls, I was like, wow, like wow, what a week. And Tom was like, Oh, is it? And I was like, their weekly profit was like more than my entire profit, like, or at least like profit from yeah, public profit.

SPEAKER_03 34:50

And I was like, Oh, all right, yeah, like I thought it was, I thought it was pretty good.

SPEAKER_01 34:57

Right. I mean, that's just that's the reality of it. I think, and you don't get the full picture like from just a snapshot leaderboard of like the effort, how far you're along, you know, like and it's hard to just like not compare yourself always, and there's always gonna be someone like in that given point in time who's doing better than you, yeah, right, for the for the most part, like even a comparable person, like someone who's putting in the same amount of effort, time, you know, quality of better as me. There's always gonna be someone who's doing better than me, basically. It'd be very rare for it not to be, just because you know, so it's it's that's the point of like comparison.

SPEAKER_02 35:34

I feel like you you have like a week or two at least for a year, just like well, I mean, that's how it goes.

SPEAKER_01 35:40

Like, I I we got a question in January where it was like, you know, I was I was up on the leaderboard, and everybody's like, oh, you know, congrats. And I'm like, this is just getting lucky, like, this is not how how it's always gonna be. But that that's that's the point, is like if I put myself in someone else's shoes, all they see is like me at the top there, like, oh, he's figured out like the secret, he's absolutely crushing it. And it's basically been like flatt-ish since that point forward. So, like, and nobody nobody's congratulated me since. So I'm still waiting on those congratulations, but you're like, Yeah, that's just like how it goes, and you only but like so you see me that week, but the next week you see someone else, you know, who has another podcaster's on Twitter or whatever, and so you just like get inundated with like everybody's doing well, because you have this idea that I'm doing well, and you have this idea that this other person is doing well, and you just don't see like when they're not doing well, and you don't know what they're doing off platform as well.

SPEAKER_04 36:38

Like, are they hedging, you know, their calls yourself is something else?

SPEAKER_01 36:42

Like, are you calling me a closet harbor?

SPEAKER_04 36:46

I mean, you you you did tell me that you're you've never taken a naked position in your life, so I don't know. Pause. I don't know.

SPEAKER_01 36:55

All right, we'll have to cut that. Last thing I had on this topic, and then let's go to the news unless you have anything else. Was the you know, we in this discussion, I I thought we were gonna maybe talk about like how to evaluate whether you're doing well or not, like in terms of because we talked about some of this like CLV, all these things. The thing I'll say today is like if you are like a top-down better or your strategy to win is primarily getting CLV, um, like it's never been easier to to just capture that CLV and just like you don't have to, you you don't you can subject yourself to less variants. This is obviously true like of anybody, but like if your strategy, if you if you don't think if you think the market is like 100% efficient at the close and you have a good position, you know, through CLV or whatever, like you should be selling your position at the close, right? Like I think people actually like I think people in gambling like actually prefer like they they don't view volatility as a cost, they actually view it as a benefit. I think most like like they would pay a little bit for volatility. The reality is if you're trying to win and you view like the close as efficient, obviously it depends on what market, what you're doing, all this stuff. But like you should on the exchanges, like you should be selling far more and and your vol, you know, your volatility, your variance is gonna go down. If you believe, like if you're originating and the you know, you think you know something should be minus seven and it's at the close, you you you got it at, I don't know, minus five and a close minus six or something, like then maybe you don't want to do that because you're you're giving something up. But if like you're top down or whatever, you you probably don't think that way. And so you should probably be like getting out of more positions than most people probably are.

SPEAKER_04 38:40

I think that's a great point.

SPEAKER_01 38:41

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 38:42

And that's I think that is the new, like one of the new mindset shifts from our world to like the new meta of sports betting is like you don't have to. Like it's okay to de-risk a bit, like it's now like an option, and there is like a bankroll growth um argument for it, uh, even when sacrificing a little EV. And the only reason that like back in the day we were like, oh yeah, don't hedge, whatever, it's just the cost of hedging was so high.

SPEAKER_01 39:16

So it just feels unnatural, I think, to a lot of betters. I think myself included. So you have like a knee-jerk reaction against it, and I think it does a disservice that like I think myself included, and a lot of us are gonna just have to like think our way through this because it's not like uh a reaction or like a an obvious thing that we should be doing because I think we're you know, most people are like um they don't think about it as like a good option just because of it's historically not been.

SPEAKER_04 39:48

I have one last thing on on downswings. I want to say, like, like what I would say is ride the wave. Because a downswing, unfortunately, like you think like, okay, I'm out of it. You know, oh okay, you know, you're like, okay, I'm gonna have a good attitude for like two hours, I'm gonna like go for I'm gonna run, you know, I'm gonna go do like a run. I have a good attitude. Okay, I'm gonna sit down at the computer and like because now I had a good attitude for like half a day, I'm gonna win because you know, that's great. And then you just like lose because that's what a downswing is. So the downswing is gonna be kind of wavy, and I like to think of it as like the same as a graph, like your mental attitude just needs to be going up a little bit, up and to the right, but you'll have your like kind of ups and downs. So so do the things that you know, give yourself a little grace. If like you have a you know a good attitude that quickly gets squashed or downswing, it'll it'll happen, but you know, go back up again and just you know, I I I say like ride the wave. I think that's a that's how I look at it. Um, but like I think generally just like cut yourself a break uh and know that it's gonna be a bit choppy, but it'll be okay.

SPEAKER_01 41:06

Or just only pick winners. That's the other option.

SPEAKER_04 41:10

Yeah, that that that is quite good. Um only picking winners or only kicking winners. Oh, what a second. How about that transition? That is some professional trans. Uh, this is the news segment, by the way. And our our top, this was like our top question, but it's also I think the biggest uh piece of discussion on at least our section of Twitter is Colchi RFQ user IDs. So uh just we we talked about this with Eggsy. It's potentially was kind of maybe a spark that lit the fire, but this, you know, I think we can all say this was this was coming, this was coming, it's not our fault, so don't add us, and it's not eggsy's fault, so don't add him. But uh yeah, so anyway, on Call She, if uh when you get receive a quote or when you quote somebody, uh you can see uh their user ID and it's static. So it's like always that person's uh that person's username is or user ID is never gonna change. So you know after you have them in your system, like if you like save their user ID, you basically know who they are, and it gives you an easy way to basically blacklist them, limit them, and be a sports book, right? So um no, you don't know their name, you don't know anything else, but you do know their ID, and if you think they're doing something sharp, it's really um you know, not not too much of a uh stretch to kind of stop responding to their requests, and that's happening. So uh that kind of I feel like blew up on Twitter over the last week or two. There's a lot of discussion around it. Um I think it was pretty I'd say it's pretty balanced back and forth. Like people in the sports betting space were I don't know. I don't know how it skewed. I I expected it to be more one way, like, oh well this is terrible. But you know, I think there's some healthy debate around it. But we got some questions around like one one question we got was uh basically like do we think that user IDs should be shown uh in the RFQ system? I'm I'm curious I'm curious generally to hear your thoughts on the debate and also that, and then I can I'll I'll give my take.

SPEAKER_01 43:55

Yeah, I think the debate, like at least what I saw, was was mostly centered around. People who like really knew what was going on, and so that's why I think it was it was fairly balanced. Um, I think if it like broke contain and got to like broader sports vetting Twitter, I don't think it would be like that. That's fair. Let's but yeah, I mean, so I mean, my my take on on like what is best long term. Like, if I'm Calchi, I think I think it's beneficial to have this long term. I think we talked a decent amount a bit about this um with Eggsy, as you said. And um to me, it's very similar to the uh the in-play delay, like argument and idea. There there are these certain things that they you can like the the nefarious way of describing it would be like it protects the market makers and is like unfair to the the customers. But in a case like this and the delay, like what is really happening is yes, it is protecting the market maker, but in doing so, you're generally giving your actual customers a better product. And and you're what the the people that are harmed in this, like if we're sort of going on the pros and cons, the people that are harmed in this is like the sharp taker. And I'm not sure if you had a chance. So I was on Henry and Chris's show last week, and this was a one of the things we talked about a good bit was like, I think the the group that's gonna get squeezed in the prediction markets is like the sharp taker, because you know, and I'm guessing that's like the majority of our audience, so I'm trying to not, you know, disparage, disparage them, but like they really serve no, I don't want to say no. They're like the least important person to a to the exchange ecosystem. Like if those people went away, the exchange ecosystem would still be fine. If you think of like the other groups, like the makers, if you don't have those people, that's a big problem. You don't have liquidity, you don't have you know a good experience when people log on. So like you need those people, those people are really important. The recreational people are obviously like the lifeblood. You could argue like the penny jumpers make the prices more efficient for everybody. Those people are important and they produce, you know, create more liquidity and tighter spreads. The people who just like sharply take, like they're just taking money out of the ecosystem and making it harder on the the makers. And like again, you you can we can get into some like the the moral arguments, I guess, of like an exchange and fairness, but like just fundamentally those that group of people is not important to the exchange, in my opinion.

SPEAKER_04 46:49

Yeah, I well, first of all, if you haven't, you have to check out the YouTube version of SP's podcast with with Henry and Fluff because he actually does a full full face review. It could surprise you, and that's all we'll we'll tease on that. All right, yeah, yeah. Um, I think you're exactly you're exactly right. Like I had written down basically what you said, but I had uh the question was from even Steven who asked, like, what are the pros and cons, uh which you which you indicated, but uh pros, you know, I think the pros are protects your market makers. Um while not doing anything to the recreational customers, it increases like the max click amount that uh people will be able to take. And I think it will like broadly foster a bigger menu, which is what has happened at recbooks, right? Like the rec books that limit have the biggest SGP menu, etc. Um and then cons is is really just uh is it lessens the differentiation between you and sportsbooks. Like that to me is the one con for these PMs. Like if you're thinking of it in just like if you're thinking of it in terms of like money or like future EV or enterprise value, because I think like the other thing is uh kind of like a brand identity or like a core values thing that like is intangible, but certainly could be a use case where like you've decided like you're just you know you made this to be like a truly free marketplace, and like no matter what, you're sticking to that, even if it dries up the liquidity or whatever, because like that's very important to you and like power to you, and that's your your prerogative. But if I was thinking of this, I'd say that's like suboptimal in terms of enterprise value, but lessening the differentiation between you and sportsbooks is potentially harmful um in what is kind of a tenuous legal environment. So that's kind of the one thing where like you could worry about how this the optics of it and how that would play out if you're fighting to say that you're different than sports betting, these are swaps, these are you know you know what I'm saying. Like that that's like one thing where I'm like that could be a case.

SPEAKER_01 49:39

Yeah, I don't want to like give the um well, like if I was on that side and trying to fight the prediction markets, like this would like I would be surprised if this doesn't get brought up in legal arguments. Like the people I saw tweeting about it were like the anti-prediction market crowd. Um and so like it will definitely be used. And that was sort of what I was getting to, like the moral aspect of the prediction markets, like not all the companies, but some of them who like you know believe that they're like you know, totally equitable and like truth machines and all these things. Like this seems antithetical to that in some regard. Um, you can make comparisons to like the financial market and whatnot, but like this is not in the spirit of like the true exchange, right? And you can make the argument that these are RFQs and they shouldn't be or whatever. And I think that's that's totally fair. Um, but definitely I I agree with that sentiment, and they will be used by like the prediction markets detractors. The other thing though, like on the other side, which I wanted to like give insight into if people haven't like tried like to get in the RFQ, and I'll be clear, like I've done it very minimally. I know very little about it. I've tried um, you know, for like a couple of days and played around with it, like there is so much it like it's not like a sports book, like when you can API in and just like make basically infinite calls, like there is so much garbage um constantly being flooded. And like if you're just like like you when I was saying like there's no room for a sharp um taker, like you just have like these like truly nefarious actors where it's just like bought in 24-7, hope someone makes a mistake, and that's what you take, like like something like that. And those people like just clog up the system, make it hard to respond for the yeah, the makers, and like that is just a whore, like you don't want because there's like rate limits and all these things, like you don't want to be using all your stuff on like garbage like that. So like I think there's there's aspects about this that um make it a far better, like I don't I don't think it could be understated that it will make a far better experience for like the normal person, they will get responses quicker and they will get better prices and they will be able to bet more things with this, yes, like long term. So absolutely I I think it's for the best, but I agree with that.

SPEAKER_04 52:17

I think where we're probably both struggling a little bit with this is like we were we've been sharp takers for like such a long period of time, right? Like I know you you know we've also played our peer versus peer stuff, and maybe you know there's some of that leaking into, but you know, I don't like we I think.

SPEAKER_01 52:41

Like nobody has showed sympathy for that group ever. Like, right, that's just a group that just they're not helpful, right? Like I I agree with you, like a lot of my time was hopefully what I'd consider a sharp taker, but like I served no benefit to the people I was taking from, you know. So like I I get it, like I try and not be like emotional about it or like just view it like objectively as an outsider, and like if I was not involved with it, it's like I you know, this the sharp taker who's taking liquidity off the market, like is just there's just no unless you want to make the argument of like truth machine and whatever, all these things, like there otherwise there's just like no benefit for those people.

SPEAKER_04 53:31

Yeah, absolutely. I mean it's the courts out of anything, like you can't basically like it.

SPEAKER_01 53:39

It's valuable information.

SPEAKER_04 53:41

But it's like you know, you have the basically you have an exchange mechanism where like you're taking a fee and then you have a group of customers that loses, and you have a group of customers that are basically high value in terms of like they foster the environment, like the market makers, and they're gonna get paid from this customer's loss. Anything that comes in between that kind of like is harmful to the ecosystem. Because you don't want the you don't want uh anyone in that group funneling money to the person sitting at the game clicking a button. Like they're you know, because it's gonna cost the makers are gonna funnel money, then they're gonna they're gonna tighten up and not provide as much liquidity, and then your fees will go down because volume will go down, and you know, whatever. It's a very delicate system, right? So I agree with you. I think this is not gonna be good for Call Street, but I understand like I understand the argument where well if like if you got rid of it, it's not good, but it's not good for the exchange ecosystem. But you know, I I can't say I know enough about like the legal proceedings and the CFTC and all this stuff, but I I do know that like by the way, over-the-counter trading, like you know often who you're trading with. Like this is not this is not like only on you know call she. Right. And and that's something that I found like people talking about, I just had no clue about and was like, they're like, well, it's not like a financial market, like it's it's RFQ, it's it's over the counter, it's literally precedent like out the ass on this. There it's like actually not that crazy, like, but you know, it's Twitter. So should we uh hit the quickly brush through the other news topics?

SPEAKER_01 55:48

Well, there's one other here that I want to just make sure we answered. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, that's a good question, and then we'll hit the rest of the news. His question was if you had a one that could make one you could make one change to Calci's current RFQ system um to enhance the market maker experience, what would you change? Same question with respect to one change that would enhance the rec customer experience. So I'll do the second one first. I I think for the rec customer, well, I actually think this is probably. I mean, if you're if you're if you're like making markets on this now, you want this to be like as difficult as possible to get integrated. And like it's not easy right now. So like I don't know if you would want to change anything. I was gonna say you want it to be like difficult and like low competition and like challenging. I think the exact opposite if you are on the recreational side, and I I'd expect to see this eventually, if like we go long enough here, is like eventually there's gonna be like services that you can probably just like subscribe to, my guess, and like and have you set up pretty well on this. I I sort of went back and forth on this of like if the SGP engines and all these things. Yes. It'll be interesting to see if they just like want to, it's like the tout debate. Like, do they want to keep the IP and do it themselves and just try and make it all? Or will they I have I have to imagine there's gonna be like tool companies that are gonna help build stuff for this? Like, I think the prediction market tools is just pretty far behind and will catch up pretty quick. But like I the reason I think that's best for recreational is you need a you like the more people you have making and the easier it is, the better prices, like the spreads are like margin will compress, like all these things are good things. I think because it's so challenging right now, like people don't want to go in there and quote like for like SGPs on stuff because it's hard. Um if it becomes easier, that's good for recreationals.

SPEAKER_04 57:49

Yeah, I uh I had the same thought. Like I have tech I have like thoughts where like, oh well, this is kind of inefficient in in the RFQ like system on Call Street, but like I don't I wouldn't say it here, like I wouldn't want them to change it because now I like if you know it then like and you've already learned it, or maybe there's a way that it helps you if it's inefficient, like you wouldn't want to change it. So for making I would want it to stay the same. I probably wouldn't change anything. Like obviously a big change would be like I actually would like them to keep the uh the user IDs for sure. So that would be my one, my one we can talk about. But I said this this is like going this is if there's user IDs. I think that you need to be able to like combo from this is a boomer take, but you need a combo from uh a browser. Like, like if you think about like if like you see, and I know this is like Rex only use their phone, but I don't know, I'm not 100% convinced of that. And if you see like some of the combos that come through, look like a 12 lugger, and it's like how did that person click through like what's not like the the best, smoothest like combo UI on the phone to like get to that that combo, you know what I'm saying? Like uh it's just like it's it's very, very difficult, I still think on the um phone. Obviously, it's you know, people are placing them.

SPEAKER_01 59:29

Like it's not it's not oh you're just saying you're saying for like recreationals, it should be on the this is for recreationals.

SPEAKER_04 59:35

I I basically generally want it easier. I want like it to be a smoother, easier interface, including a browser. Isn't it on the web? Well that that that I don't know. Call shit. Yeah, I don't know. I know there's gotta be someone from call sheet who listens to this. So why isn't it on the web?

SPEAKER_01 59:51

They haven't gotten to.

SPEAKER_04 59:53

Yeah, probably. I mean, they obviously have a lot of it's like one of those things. Well, does your mile do that? It's like you'd think, and like you'd think I'd make that change, but it's like there's like six other things that I'd have to change to change that, and then I'm just not doing it. But uh yeah, I would start start easy. What I feel like is more of an easy fix would be get it up on the web, and then generally just like make it easier to use. I remember when we were first checking it out. Um, I think Gabriel's like, like John, can you like figure out how to play a parlay?

SPEAKER_03 1:00:29

I came back like 30 minutes later. I was like, I still haven't figured it out.

SPEAKER_01 1:00:34

Yeah, no, I remember doing a similar thing. I was searching on the web forever, and then I realized you had to do could do it on the phone.

SPEAKER_04 1:00:40

Right, right, exactly. So it that that's that's a bit confusing, but anyway, I I think like as far as like on the maker side, like selfishly, I wouldn't change anything, and then but um there's probably some stuff.

SPEAKER_01 1:00:59

All right, the over one and a half hours is is themed to like 84 cents right now. So we're gonna rattle through the news, yeah and then uh and then we can we can hit the questions. If you have any anything you want to add on any of these, we could talk after. First one I had was um Ohio denied Calci a preliminary injunction. I don't know if you've seen there's been like a lot of court negativity towards um Calci in the prediction markets in a bunch of states. Um it seems like the court, like several of these, these people in the courts are not happy with like how the CFTC is handling some of this stuff. I saw there was like remarks about like sports betting, like like out of going out of their lane and talking about like 18 to 21, 18 to 20 year olds. Like we determined that they shouldn't be sports betting in this country and stuff like that. So seems like not the greatest of uh of legal news, you know, from the courts on that. I think that's ultimately where this is gonna be settled, it seems like. Um but yeah, that was that was interesting. Um, underdog purchased Aristotle, it's an exchange. I don't, you know, uh underdog again, much more like from the DFS world. I don't see this as a fit. I could be like dead wrong. I think I don't I don't see this as a fit, like them pivoting. Like they had a horrific sports betting product, to the best of my knowledge, underdog, like this half-baked effort, and maybe they just like never put enough resources into it. But they're just like that's not like in their blood, yeah. Um I don't know if they're gonna be they're they're really going all in on this, and it'll be interesting to see how successful or unsuccessful it is.

SPEAKER_04 1:02:38

Um yeah, go ahead. I was gonna say the other I think the other key point of that is that clearly like the DCMs are going to like basically anyone who's a broker is also at least eyeing like being the exchange if they have any like customer acquisition capability. We've seen it with Robinhood partnering with SIG and whatever that exchange is going to be. Um, but yeah, there there's obviously some appetite once you feel like, oh, you have a lot of customers, and underdog's currently using crypto.com. And you're like, well, why am I paying them, you know, or like why am I not getting their fee also, or or whatever. So, you know, I think that that when you have enough customers, you're obviously gonna start to think, well, why don't I just own the exchange as well?

SPEAKER_01 1:03:36

Well, that that not to devolve, but that's that's one of the legal things that's come up, you know, over the past week that I saw that'll be interesting is I don't know if it's ever gonna get settled like this, but like you can make the argument. And I think some of the people like on the opposing opposing prediction markets are making the argument. Like, if you consider these sports contracts swaps or whatever, like you need to consider like the sports betting swaps because they're effectively like the same instrument. And then like that means they're not allowed, like they being FanDuel DraftKings and stuff, like aren't allowed to offer those products because you need to have certain licenses to to offer a swap. Um, so it'll be, you know, like you can obviously make arguments both ways and say, like, no, there's nobody on the like I don't know how you define, I guess, like sports bet versus swap and what's fundamentally different. Like, because I don't think it's it's gonna come down to like there has to be it can't be the house behind it, because no doubt some of these prediction markets are gonna be house-backed for at least a portion of their products, right? Or or like single entity.

SPEAKER_04 1:04:44

You mean like culture trading or whatever?

SPEAKER_01 1:04:46

Yeah, or no, exactly. Or even more like an extreme version. Like, there's no way DraftKings and FanDuel and Underdog don't want to just be a sports book and call themselves a prediction market. Like, is that gonna be a good idea?

SPEAKER_04 1:04:59

That's gonna be the most open order book, they're gonna really like make the API really good and have everybody come in and compete.

SPEAKER_01 1:05:07

Right, it'd be interesting to see like if that's allowed. Because it seems dangerous and sort of like not gonna be easy to write laws saying like you need to have like laws of like the idea that the government can write laws around how to run an exchange in terms of like API open order book and all these things is like the equivalent of the government figuring out how to enforce limits. Like, there's no way they're gonna be able to do that in a good way, you know? Right. So like I don't think they can do that effectively. And so then it just like then all the sports books can just say like we are swaps or whatever, too, right? Yeah. So I don't know, it'll be interesting. Uh other interesting things, I don't know if you saw this UFC fight. I don't really know what to make of it. I'm hoping someone you know smart can tell me. What happened here? Basically, a fight got like totally steamed out of control. Um, Michael Johnson and Drew Dober. And um I watched the fight, it looked legitimate to me. Uh, I'm not an expert, but like it looked normal to me. Um, in the past, they've like pooled fights when this happened. It was actually very challenging to know what to do from like a DFS lineup perspective. To like I I had both of these guys, yeah. But then I put them back in. But um, yeah, if someone smarter knows knows what happened here, I would that was like the Dave Mason thing he posted about like all those bets. Yeah, all the sports books took it down for a period of time. Yeah, and then they most of them brought it back up, which in the past, like they didn't do that when they you know pulled the fight and everything. So I don't know what I'm saying.

SPEAKER_04 1:06:47

They went and like asked them, like, yo, you guys do you guys rigged this?

SPEAKER_01 1:06:51

It's what I assume. They you know Dana White was like, You guys better not be fixing this. Like, so it's hard to it's hard to think anything other than someone thought it was fixed. Yeah, but but maybe I don't I don't really know, right? Because they it was total price insensitivity. Like I don't remember the odds, but it was like even-ish money, no, not even. I think Michael Johnson was like a slight favorite to like plus 180 or something, I think, and like bet all the way through. So I I don't know, it was really strange. I I'm guessing there was also some like FOMO of this fight's fixed, and I need to pack too.

SPEAKER_04 1:07:29

Well, this just like on I just thought of this, but like I think how like when people are like, Oh, if I was really rich, like I want to buy a sports gene. Like, if I'm really rich, I think what I want to do is kind of like sit around and every once in a while just like like bet something, like I like I think it's rigged, and then just like see and have enough money where like everybody freaks out.

SPEAKER_01 1:07:52

I don't want to be a conspiracy theorist, but I had that thought of like, especially because like there's been two of these, I think, in very recent weeks where the line got like totally out of control and got pulled. Like, I don't know. Like, I had that thought of like, is someone trying to like you know, play games play some sort of game or something?

SPEAKER_04 1:08:11

Like well, like for me, it would only be for entertainment, like it would be minus EV. Like, I wouldn't like capture any of like the line move or anything, you would just do it for fun. Exactly. Like, this is if I'm like by a football team, Rich. I think I'd rather do this for a brief period of time, is what I'm saying. Hot take.

SPEAKER_01 1:08:28

Fair enough. It's sort of uh you know, like a D-bag move, though, because like if you got the guy's fight canceled because they thought it was fixed, like that would be unfortunate for him.

SPEAKER_04 1:08:40

Now you're making me feel bad. That's a real answer.

SPEAKER_01 1:08:45

We'll we'll worry about that. Yeah, we'll get to it later.

SPEAKER_03 1:08:46

Yeah, cross that.

SPEAKER_01 1:08:47

All right, two other news things. Um, there were a handful of Democrats who were trying to pass a bill banning market, like prediction markets on death and war. I thought this is interesting. I tried to look um beforehand on like if I could find actual wording, because like the obvious thing here is the law currently prohibits markets on death and war. So this would only matter if the wording is um more broad than it's currently. Like, for example, like is the current market on like that straight in Iran being closed for 14 days or whatever? Like, is that a market on war? I mean, it it sort of is like a proxy, right? Is is like the leader of Iran being out a market on war? This is sort of we've all been asking. So, like, unless they like I don't know what language they would have to use to capture something like this, but obviously, like as is, I don't it almost made me wonder like, is this because I saw like all the Calchi folks getting behind this, like it almost makes me made me you know cynical me think like Calchi's you know trying to get out in front of this and again like contribute to the image of like we're the regulated ones here, you know, like polymarket is playing fast and loose, but like we already adhere to this, right? Something like that.

SPEAKER_04 1:10:05

Um probably somewhat true. Um this this was one I threw threw in there, but um two things I didn't realize. So Flutter, if you look at Flutter stock, it's doing terribly over the last like year and a half or something. And I they must have like reported recently because amongst these like bad results, they said they were launching like a sports book loyalty program. And I was like, they don't have one of those. But here's what I'm saying: it's like you who cares? Like, is it this is like the crowns thing at at DraftKings? I guess that's cool. Like if you're a DFS player or whatnot, and doing like tons of high volume. But uh I was I was just very surprised that like they flutter, like just hearing like yeah, fan duel of Flutter, they're like deciding to launch a sports betting like loyalty program. I'm like, how in God's name did they not have one? I'm sure I would have been like minus like 20,000 to assume they had one.

SPEAKER_01 1:11:08

So and like I mean I'm sure they have like a VIP yeah program, but like for the the common better. I I don't like on the DFS. I mean, I I think it's probably underrated by most people how how wet like how much that how much people like that and how much it gamifies it. Like DraftKings um loyalty program or whatever with the crowns, like yeah, I could only really speak from the DFS side because that's what I have more exposure to, but like people love it, you know, like fair enough. It's such a small amount of rake back if you actually do the math, but like people would play sports like they would never play, they you know, to get the missions, like they totally gamify it, right?

SPEAKER_04 1:11:52

So okay, fair enough. I think it's good. I alright. Fair enough. And then you're like, oh, what are the what are the prizes this year? You know, there's a whole thing, right? Like I only had a brief taste of that with pick six for that one brief period of time, but I I would say it was kind of fun because I was like, I need pro vs. I'm just gonna go to the DraftKings shop and get pro-V's. And I was like, this is kind of sick.

SPEAKER_03 1:12:21

Yeah, you're right.

SPEAKER_04 1:12:22

Actually, it worked on me now that I think of it.

SPEAKER_01 1:12:24

People are big fans of the DraftKings uh Black Friday sale, so ah, oh yeah, I think Black Friday sale, I think.

SPEAKER_04 1:12:33

You have to like figure out how to like optimize the Black Friday sale or whatever with your rewards, yeah. Or you like buy other people's rewards, yeah. There's there's some some of that going on. Um, okay, let's hit the questions. Um let's start with Barney Green. If you're a small manual trader crushing select PM markets, think culture and politics, what are the warning signs that a more sophisticated shark has entered the water and is about to eat you like the fish you are? Come on, Barney. We're this is a big episode about confidence. It started so good. He was crushing crushing the markets, and then he ended with fish. The fish you are, you piece of shit, Barney. God damn it. Why did you think you could win in this market? Um, I would say I think that's a good question. I thought a lot about this. I actually don't, you know, I don't really know. I think one thing is like, are you taking your making? Um, if you're making, basically the telltale sign is it gets a lot harder to like win the good levels in the order book, like and you're less able to dictate to name your price, basically. So like you're on a good price and you're happy, and right when you're on that good price, somebody is on the price above you, you know, and rinse and repeat, like, oh, you may jump them, but then they jump you, and then you get to a price where you're like, eh, I don't know if I really want this, and like you're choosing between like something you maybe want, maybe don't want, or letting them be top of the book. That to me, on like a making side and very broad strokes is how you would determine if like somebody good is in there.

SPEAKER_01 1:14:22

Yeah, I jotted down a couple things. First, like this one is probably more geared towards like inside information-y type things, but like anytime you're in a market and you're you know, someone in there or a group of people is like there's like some sort of price insensitivity or what seems like price insensitivity, I would be cautious. That's like the MMA example we just talked about, like betting through, like like you know, betting through a ton of different, you know, probability bands is probably a warning sign. The other thing's similar to what you said, like automate, like if you can see like automated action in a market, I think that's probably more concerning. Like automated refills, automated jumps. Um, that's probably concerning. Uh, size of like fill is something we've talked about. Like, if you're getting like full fills on whatever you post, that's probably a bad sign. Um, just in general, getting filled for 25 shares is always gonna be better than getting filled for like 5,000 shares, um, even at you know the same price or whatever. Um, and then the last thing I was gonna say is like the width of the market. I think uh more serious people would probably take spreads lower. Um and so like I would want to be in markets that have a lot of width in general if I was like in this culture in poly like for me, because I don't know anything about it. Like, I would want to be in like stuff like that. So those would be my thoughts.

SPEAKER_04 1:15:49

Yeah, yeah, I think those are all good. Um unhinged sport. I like it. What sort of things are you guys curious from the outside on how bookmakers operate internally? What are the most hidden aspects? And then a sub, good man, sub question talking about a real sport. Also, have you seen DK, DK's new golf SGP product released this week? Thoughts on it? Love the show, fellas. Keep on keeping on. This unhinged sport guy is like rising my listener rankings rapidly. Um, so I'll answer the first one quickly because it's it's I have the same exact answer for both of these. The most hidden part, plus the thing I want to know the most about is customer profiling. Like that to me is now we're in this era, brief era of um requester IDs being public. So like it's on top of mine, but like that to me is where the sports books and the rec books like people are like, oh, like they have these data science teams. They're not they're not modeling, you know, table tennis, they're like predicting if a customer is going to be a valuable customer or not. So to me, this is where they are just like the absolute sharpest. And obviously, like everything they do, they don't talk about publicly. Like you have someone like Shipper come on and he talks a little bit about it, and I think everybody finds the his episodes, whatever podcast he does, interesting because of that, because it's something that's so so opaque. And when we're thinking about it as betters, we're like, oh, if I do this or do that, then like my account's gonna let like you said, like uh I forget what you astrology for dudes or whatever, but it's like you you also kind of want to know, like, oh, did this thing I do, like, did that actually matter? Like, I I I'm kind of curious too. So for me, it's 100% customer profiling answer to both of those questions.

SPEAKER_01 1:17:54

Yeah, I think that's probably like the the obvious answer here. I think in general, and you alluded to to maybe a less obvious one that I would have would be like, I would be curious like what the data science people are doing at these companies, because like it's not just like I'm guessing it's primarily not, you know, like predict like they're not probably doing stuff to like predict NFL spreads or stuff. But I you know, there's a lot of really smart people, like data science people that work at these companies and probably are doing really cool projects, and like that's my bent. So I would be I would be into all of that just like to learn various, like either like modeling, prop, derivative, or some of the customer profiling things. I think it would just be really cool to see what what types of things they're working on. Um did you see that the the the SGP product? I I did not.

SPEAKER_04 1:18:44

I did. I think it's pretty good. Um I checked like the main like obvious, obvious, like broken holes. So basically the one thing I checked was like, could you parlay anything together where like you you could where like if something happened the other thing like by definition could not happen. An obvious example would be like over, let's just say like over 16 pars, if you take like over 16 pars and over and under like two and a half bogeys. It's like well, if they get over, if they get 17 pars, they can't go over the bogeys, right? They were clever, they cannot allow that too sharp. Um, but I think there's like if you know, like if you know ball, I see this like a lot, like kind of maybe how someone like Calvin or like the NBA guys kind of do the SGPs, like there, there's some opportunities there. It did make me like I was like, oh man, like this was the first time I was like, oh, I kind of want to go back to the other side, I kind of want to be one of those those naughty, sharp takers that are so nasty and like unwanted. Um, you know, it made me, it tempted me. So I I think there's some opportunity there. Um and I think I would also like to do some making of golf SGPs, and it's something you know, hey, maybe uh maybe Call She wants to throw out a competitive product to to DK and we can spin some up or something. But I think like something you said SP was a good way to to monetize being an originator is to create a SGP model if you have a sim. So, you know, also semi-kicking myself, I didn't uh sell this.

SPEAKER_01 1:20:46

We still have time. Hopefully, hopefully, Cashi rolls out a product. Let's go to Seth's question. You mentioned the feeling of being on the clock regarding making money on prediction markets while they're here. How do you balance this feeling while also trying to live and enjoy your life? I think that yeah, it was you who had said that.

SPEAKER_04 1:21:03

So yeah. Yeah, this is a good question. And I got a similar question from Thon misser, who does not miss, um, of like, how are you, you know, how do you like go to a dinner and be completely present when like we're in this time period when so much is going on, and you know, whatever. You could be sweating or you could be thinking about oh, I should do XYZ to be better at this. And like I think like the honest answer is I'm not very good at it. It's probably my biggest like life leak and something I'm working on. Um what helps is if I put my phone in a completely different room, like if I like I don't know, I've been unsuccessful just trying to be like, no, like be present, like take a breath, focus, you know, whatever. That's bullshit, that doesn't work. You have to take your phone and throw it in the trash, like and then go to a different room and don't have your computer there. For for me, that's been the best way to do it is do things where I'm unable to check in. And here's the thing like if you have a thought that pops to your mind, like, oh, this could be an interesting idea, that's gonna happen no matter what job you have or whatever. I think that's normal. But what's not normal is like pulling up your phone, buzz, all the constant notifications, like injury news, this move, this filled, this move, somebody asks this question, you know, blah, bam, bam. It's just like constant. That's not normal. So I think like getting away from anything that like if you're gonna take a break, take a break, and like don't trick yourself into like having your phone there just in case you need to be reached or whatever. I don't know. That that's kind of like my my thinking is you just gotta you gotta set yourself up for success and and just cut it off, cut the head off a snake.

SPEAKER_01 1:23:04

Yeah, I know this question is directly at you. I think the only thing I would add would be like I for me, it's always just like have been having a plan, like of when I'm gonna work, when I'm not, you know, like if I'm gonna do something with you know my wife or friends or family or whatever, like then I just I go do that and I'm present in that. And when I'm working, I'm working, and I try and like not have as many distractions as possible. But like I think the the problem when like when it's going bad for me, it's it's when like I'm just I have no plan and I'm just like I have this existential, like I should be working on this or whatever. But if I have like a plan going into a day a week or whatever, like it's fine. The other thing I'll say is I I try if if if I just do like a little bit every day, like related to betting, like try and I have like basically I think I've mentioned this before. I have like a recurring, like basically text file of just like to-do things, and I just try and do like one a day, and it's never been easier because you can get so much done faster. Yeah, um that also keeps you moving and whatnot. But that I mean, I like that. Yeah, I'm not a big phone phone guy, I'm a big computer guy, but like the phone doesn't do it for me, really.

SPEAKER_04 1:24:18

So some inside like SP is a really I'd say like you're very president and you're not a phone guy at all. It's it's impressive.

SPEAKER_01 1:24:26

Um which is funny because like you were off Twitter for such a long time, you'd think like I don't have Twitter on my phone, actually. Actually, that that okay, so it's it's it's just like yeah, you know, betting stuff that pops up that that that causes you to not be.

SPEAKER_04 1:24:41

Yeah, like a lot of it's like you you have like a we have like a Discord bot that like alerts to certain things or like news bots or somebody saying, ah fuck the penguins or I don't know. It's like it's just like you know, it's just random shit. Like yes, like there's obviously like being being available is important, but like I think what you said about being deliberate is is the key because then if like you're gonna take time, then if if you like let's say you're working with somebody, they're human, you know, they're gonna want to take time at some point. So just tell them, hey, I'm taking some time. Um, I'll be back X time. That's fine. Like it is a com it feels like there's so much to be done, but you're not doing yourself any favors by like uh I I guess burning out, you know, it's so cliche, but you know, you you need to there's other things, there's other things in betting. Um and it's important. Like betting's great, but it's only great if it like fits into a life that's also great.

SPEAKER_01 1:25:53

Yeah, I mean, what's the point of of making the money if you can the life is not enjoyable?

SPEAKER_04 1:25:58

So absolutely.

SPEAKER_01 1:26:00

Let's go to the next question from Baller. Thoughts on open claws impact on people now with zero coding experience, being able to create trading bots and automate tasks, how this affects market efficiency. So my I think we got a question on open claw. I honestly don't know that much about it. I think that's like the full autonomous agent type deal. I've only used like um, I think I mentioned codecs, clawed, and things like that to like build things for me that then run. Um so I don't I don't have necessarily comments on open claw, but like I still think there's like a huge I was thinking about this the other day. Like I think this, I think it's overblown, like how doomed computer science people are. Um, because the thing that is actually valuable about like computer science or math or any of these things is not like being able to write the language or whatever, it's being able to think clearly about problems and set things up with like a clear line of thinking and like how problems should actually be approached. Because I just think of like computer science, like if they need to learn a new language, they can do that. It's trivial for them. It's that's not like what's hard about it. It's like designing the problem. So, like, if I asked, you know, one of my friends who who's like not in that background, like not technical at all, to like make a trading bot, it's gonna be horrific. No, like so. So yes, it's gonna make something. It's gonna be truly scary, but yeah, right, it's gonna be really bad. So I don't know. I I mean that could change, obviously. And like I've been extremely impressed with the tools overall, like as someone who I think sort of came in with an innate knowledge of like computer science and math and all these things, but it's also done really, really dumb things for for even me, because when I've not prompted it perfectly. So I don't know. I think it's just it makes you be able to do stuff much faster. And iterate much faster, but I don't actually think it's like gonna I don't think it has any impact on like the uh efficiency of the market, at least today, in in my opinion. I think you know people are just gonna be able to iterate faster and that might be different in the future. But right now, I think it's just like whoever can build the the best stuff as quick as possible and iterate.

SPEAKER_04 1:28:22

Yeah, I I think the same. I think the same thing. I don't really it is it is interesting. Like I I I almost feel like the the person the there's like a small sliver I feel like of people this is kind of a leap for it, and I kind of fall on that sliver. It's like people who aren't like great at computer science, but like have some have like a base knowledge of like a language and like could do something without it if push came to shove. I think that's like a good sweet spot to be in because now it's helping you with like kind of to catch up in in certain aspects, but you're still doing a thinking, and you know, you gotta like structure the file structure and and everything. Like there, there's like annoying little things like where are you hosting it? Like, are you on Git? Like whatever, like all this like random shit. So, you know, maybe you have that, but you're not like an excellent programmer. Well, that's a pretty good spot to be in right now.

SPEAKER_01 1:29:24

A hundred percent. And like to be clear, it wasn't like I'm not saying the computer science advantages like that they know anything about computer science. It's just like to be in computer science, you have to be a problem solver. Yeah, like so. There's other, you know, like degrees or backgrounds or professions where that's that's true too.

SPEAKER_04 1:29:41

Um if you went to college today, what would you measure in?

SPEAKER_01 1:29:45

Well, that's what I was sort of thinking about. I think I was listening to something talking about like I don't know what to tell my kids to do. And I honestly don't think it's maybe I mean, this could, you know, bad advice aged or whatever. Like, I don't think it's that different. Like, I think, you know, my degree's in math. I think you could make that argument like nothing's gonna be, you know, like AI'd harder than math in computers or whatever. But I think that I don't, you know, maybe it's just coke because it's what I do, but I don't I don't actually think like the skills I learned, you know, being math or like that was has anything to do with math. It has to do with like, you know, when you're doing a proof, it has to do with like logical, clear thinking or whatever. It's not about like proving something. And it's the same with like any type of of math or computer science or anything technical, really. So I don't know. I think it would it would be similar. Like I I don't think the answer, like I think the answer like people are giving is like you know, arts and creativity is like the only thing like job we're gonna have. Like maybe I can't buy it. No, I think the I think the clear thinkers who can who can like the problem solvers are gonna be the people who do really well with AI of any background, you know.

SPEAKER_04 1:31:04

I I think so, yeah. I I think I probably like do like I probably choose between like stats and computer science still. I I don't yeah, I don't really see it. I agree with you, like I don't see it as being the replacement for that. Um okay, this is for you, so I'll ask it. Well, I assume it's for you. The magic skull bus, one of the best listener names. Can you talk about successful esports betting? Is it more subjective, stats-based, something else? Uh, and then they mentioned they can wrap their heads around uh traditional sports analytics, but are having difficulty when it's a computer game.

SPEAKER_01 1:31:46

Yeah, so I mean, like I when I started this, I knew nothing about the esports, to be clear, like that I was betting. It was just out of necessity that it was the only thing to bet on. I think we discussed this. Um, so like for me, it was basically entirely stats-based when I was getting into it. Because like I literally like I remember watch, like, you know, I had these stats. I had a way of making like at the time DFS lineups that I thought was good because like who was gonna score well and correlations and all these things. And then I watched the game and I'm like, I literally have no idea what is happening. Like, I don't know what the goal of the game is, I don't know who's on what team. I don't know if they're winning or losing. Like I knew nothing about the game. Um, so it was basically all stats in the beginning. I think I said you know, to me, like the subjective and stats-based, they converge over time in any type of model. Like, you know, like it's subjective of what you think is important and how you build that, and then you try and like do it in an unbiased way with statistics or whatever. Um, but esports, it's really no different than like a normal sport. I would say if anything, there's like less less variance in an esport. Like there's there's random, you know, there's like RNG or whatever in video games, random number generators that like make a fire dragon pop up instead of like a you know, earth dragon or whatever. Um, so there's variants like of that stuff. But you know, esports is probably closer to chess than it is like poker. Like in esports, the best team is like gonna win like a lot of the time versus the bad team. Whereas in poker with a short number of hands or whatever, like it's it's more dependent on luck. Uh, not a poker expert, but just like there's more randomness in just the cards you get. Whereas esports is way more skill. So it's actually like probably like more sticky and predictive than like you know, like college basketball, or maybe basketball is a bad example, but like a sport with like a lot of variants, like baseball or something. Yeah. Um, so it's really the same types of things, like looking stats, you know, performing well, all that type of stuff.

SPEAKER_04 1:33:53

But yeah. To piggyback on that, because I know you actually like to watch esports, right? This is Benjamin Churn's question for both GP and SP, how often do you watch sports and do you cheer for your favorite team versus team you have a position in? Um, I like to watch sports. Like I my attention span has been dwindling, which I'm with trying to work on a bit. But like uh I enjoy I really like watching golf. When I watch golf, a lot of times I'm thinking like kind of trying to learn from the pros, you know, what are they doing, what kind of shots are they hitting. If they're mic'd off, like that to me, that's like a dream situation. Like I get to hear them talk out loud about what why they're doing certain things. So like I really like to watch golf because I like I like to play it, and then like a regular whatever game. Um, you know, I don't really like watching sports I've I've bet on. I feel like it kind of like it like taints, it's the wrong word, but like taints the experience a little. Whereas if I go in, I'm like watching a sport, I haven't bet on it. I just think I'm like this like really like open-minded guy. I'm like, oh okay, like what are the players thinking? Wow, that's really good for him. Like, I bet that. Oh wow, like man, that guy's fast. Like, that's awesome. Like, how'd he get so fast? You know, that's a good to me. That's like the dream spot. When I'm betting, I'm like, fuck that piece of shit. Like, how the fuck? So it's like I I really like to watch sports, and I feel like I have a better time and I'm more enjoyable if I don't have any, you know, if I don't have a position on it, basically. Golf, it's unavoidable, but I actually can kind of sidestep it by trying to improve my own golf game while I'm watching.

SPEAKER_01 1:35:49

Yeah, I definitely, you know, growing up, I definitely had favorite teams. Um, I'll still like, you know, root for them. Uh when I was younger, like one of them losing would be like a day ruiner for me. Certainly that's not the case anymore with any any team. Um, I don't know if that's age, gambling, both combined. I'm not really sure. Um, but you know, like I'll I'll still, you know, root, root for, root for a favorite team. Not not in any serious sort of um way, though. Um, yeah, I mean I watch all the time. I watch like all the sports basically all the time. I'm trying to I I've done stuff with like all sports, so I basically am always trying to watch and see if there's like anything I can learn or it's just even entertainment. Like I, you know, I have games on all the time. I don't know if I'm like seriously watching or like invested in any league or team or sport or anything. The only one I really would watch with like no financial stake is at this point, like I'll occasionally watch an eSport, a League of Legends game. You know, they're quick to the attention span thing, they're like yeah, 30 minutes long. Like it's like something I can actually sit and watch. I have a hard time, like I don't watch any, I can't get into any like seasons of anything because it's just way too much time, and I can't I can't ever do that. But so like the e-splitch is perfect, it's 30 minutes to be done.

SPEAKER_04 1:37:07

Also, you spent all this time figuring out what the fuck was going on in League of Legends because I tried to watch it once. I was like, nothing makes any sense. Like, so you already got past that. You have to now allow that to you know pay off.

SPEAKER_01 1:37:21

Yeah, yeah. I mean, it's it's uh it's actually pretty entertaining. Like the I'm a big fan of of sports where the broadcast is like very good, or like production if of it is good. Like the NFL is an amazing sport, but in my opinion, like the production of it and everything is is horrible. Like nobody wants like you want to listen to NFL like on mute from us games and everything. Um yeah, just the sports we're announcing is good, like I'm a I'm a fan of, and I think uh some esports do like a fantastic job of that.

SPEAKER_04 1:37:52

So there we go. Um geriatric, fair on tiger out of gusta. If you play 0.000, like yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:38:02

How how how much of a rush is there gonna be to get at the the 99?

SPEAKER_04 1:38:06

The tiger 99s are gonna be.

SPEAKER_01 1:38:10

Are you camped out already?

SPEAKER_04 1:38:12

No, I don't I don't think he's I don't think he's on the board. Um if he is, then there's even more valuable because if he doesn't apply you you print money. Um yeah, the tiger 99s uh at the Masters will be the most uh lucrative golf level of all time and will probably be about 50 million deep.

SPEAKER_01 1:38:34

Yeah, it's gonna be a race if that happens. All right, we got two more from the hard 17. Um for this one says the following are both considered undeniable truths in sports spreading. One, it is very hard to scale. Two, touts are virtually all grifters. Uh, you can see the inconsistency. If you can't get money down, isn't selling picks a better way to scale? You also have services like ETR that we all respect, who do in fact sell picks and projections. They do so well that the data actually powers the models of some of your guests. So the real question is if you understand why a place like ETR sells versus bets their own capital, how would you recommend a square better evaluate a tout or a betting service? So I don't, I think everything in question is like a pretty fair point. Um, I guess to the actual question, like the way I would interpret it is like if the how is how would I actually recommend evaluating it? If the picks are valuable, it should be like extremely challenging to actually bet the picks.

SPEAKER_04 1:39:38

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:39:38

Um it should not be easy to bet the picks. Like you should have to like, it should be very hard. Like so for ETR, like you have a very short window before they move. Um you know, I won't speak about any other services or whatever, but you want ones where like it's not like they can just like send you an email and like two hours later you can make the play. Like that's almost certainly useless. Um, it also can't be just like free post it on Twitter or something, or in a Discord or Patreon or whatever, and you can bet it an hour later. Like that is also a really uh big red flag. So um that would be my my answer to that.

SPEAKER_04 1:40:21

Yeah, I agree. I I think the one thing I would say for I think like ETR, obviously, everybody kind of consensus believes they're they're sharp, and it's not too hard to to to come to that conclusion. Occasionally a diamond in the rough, like if you're looking for a diamond in the rough where you might be able to get a little more down, like in a Discord chat or or something, is somebody who like posts very thoughtful. Um you know, they write up kind of their thought process, and like you're like, wow, this person like does like I you know I read through it, it's very thoughtful. They clearly have some understanding of what's going on. They're thinking probabilistically. Like that's the that's the key flasher. Like if someone's thinking probabilistically and then like what they're saying is kind of like sharp to that sport, you might be able to roll the dice on them and catch, you know, kind of them before they either go tout or just shut the fuck up because they're moving their own lines, you know. Um so that that's one thing if you were trying to like kind of billy bean Oakland athletics, like moneyball some touts or whatever. But um, yeah. Uh yeah, I agree. Yeah, I agree.

SPEAKER_01 1:41:37

The only other thing I was gonna say on this one is like I don't I don't think I don't well speak for myself, like I'm not necessarily like super anti-tout. Like I think the the idea that it's like way different to like have a show with a sponsorship and give out picks versus like charge money or whatever, or like have a Patreon or have a Discord. Like there's like to me, or or sell tools or projections or like these are all on a continuum, and I don't view them as like ones in the camp that's good and ones in the camp that's bad. I broadly think like if you're gonna pay money to someone, you're far better or or pay your time to someone, which is the same as paying money, like whether people want to admit that or not, like with sponsorships or whatever, they're the same thing. But like if you're gonna do that, like I would want to spend it on things where I'm gonna learn something beyond just like bet this bet. So like pick sellers, I think, understandably get a lot of flack because oftentimes they're just giving you like a pick and you're learning nothing. But like, so if I was gonna like subscribe to something or whatever, it'd be like what you're talking about, where I could understand like thought process and learn something, or like you know, ETR. I could, I might not ever get the picks, but I can have the projections and I can build my own model and try and front run them in the future or whatever. Like it would be something where it I'm not just getting like the pick, but I can't imagine we have a lot of people listening to this show who just want the picks, but maybe we do. I don't know.

SPEAKER_04 1:43:10

Yeah, while you're saying that, I was like, what's a good example of some like yeah, you know throw uh Judah who writes Throw the Damn Ball. Yeah, like that that's a good example of something like it's very worthwhile to like it's uh it's a sub stack. I don't know what the I forget what the cost is, but like you learn a lot from listening to him talk about it.

SPEAKER_01 1:43:32

Yeah, at least he's like I have I I have no ability to gauge the value of it, but like if I was gonna bet football, like at least he's writing like his thoughts, and you can like learn something for the future, and you're not like that that would be the ones I'm trying to do. Exactly. Yeah, like that.

SPEAKER_04 1:43:48

That's like it's like obviously like a far top of the graph, like you know, right version of what you want, and then there's gonna be things in the middle, but yeah. Um okay. The second question from the hard 17, I think is I think I know what you're gonna pick, and you probably know what I'm gonna pick here, but we can uh we can figure it out. So the hard 17, what is more valuable? A sharp prop model that can get you 15% ROI, but it's tough to get in the lines, and you'll get limited, um, i.e. ETR. I actually think let's just say you have your own prop model instead of you know sub into ETR, or someone who can generate zero ROI betting NFL sides and totals on Sunday mornings. Uh curious to hear your thoughts.

SPEAKER_01 1:44:35

Yeah, and I think my answer might I I honestly don't know. I went about back and forth on this. So, like if it's ETR, I think my answer is like I just don't know how valuable, like no shade to those guys or that product or whatever. But like if it's a public service, yeah, like publicly available service, and you're gonna get limited immediately, like like that's just not that valuable in my like for me, it would not be that valuable, like with yeah, like what I want to do and everything. If you're like someone with infinite outs or whatever, like then it probably would be valuable. Um, if it's your own stuff, I think that changes my answer. Um, so because I I guess to answer the question as written, if it was ETR, I think being able to bet, like I think there's more value. The way I was thinking about this is I think there's more value in being able to bet like zero hold stuff than ever, just because again, like the cost of getting out of that is less than ever. So I think you have like like you can be more nimble if you can just like break even place like big break-even bets on sportsbooks, because you can you can get out of most of that position at other places now. And so if that has benefit like account longevity or VIP program or any of that stuff, I think there's like a a higher value on on some of that stuff. Um if it is your own numbers, I think the 15% ROI, because I think you can get creative with that in a variety of ways.

SPEAKER_04 1:46:08

Yeah. I think I'm either way going the Sunday NFL. Like, I don't know. I just I just this is one of these things where where I'm like pro maybe assuming too much, but I think the people and we we've had you know people who've been on the show who do really, really well are like priming really well, and you can prime and like like Fluff's talked about this, like he can get down so much money, you know, and that's his that's his whole pitch, and he doesn't have to originate, and the best originators will come to him and then give him bets, and then you know, get down. And you know, to me, like having that Sunday NFL thing like solves basically all of my account priming problems, and then I hopefully then become some kind of originator conglomerator or whatever. I don't know. That that's kind of how I was thinking of it.

SPEAKER_01 1:47:07

Yeah, no, I mean that it makes sense to me. Then that's why that might be for sure my answer with ETR. I just and maybe it's just like a tough question to ask, because like I feel like if you have your own proprietary stuff with a 15% ROI, like it's not gonna be depending on what it is, like you will likely get limited or whatever, but it if you're the only person that has it, it's like it's not like you can get creative to get money in, right?

SPEAKER_04 1:47:35

Well, the real answer is one of us picks the 15% ROI and the other picks the NFL thing, and then we work together. And that's only that's our answer. That was actually a really easy question. The hard so it should be the easy 17. Yeah, just just both. Just take both. Just both is actually the answer. Um, cool. Well, I know we're way past our projected time. Um, I had a uh a brief Bayesian update. Uh I'm back in on a little bit back in on flat water. You know me as a absolute seltzer drinking monster. Wow, yeah. This is big. Yeah, exactly. You know, you basically might be the the one of the few people who understands how big this is, but I'm kind of getting back in on flat water. I don't I don't know. I feel a little better. Like the amount of seltzers I I drank was extreme. Like we can we can just level set for the for the audience, it was extreme. But yeah, I mean I think I'm you know my stomach is probably thanking me a little bit from from the switch to flat. And it's way less exciting to drink, but if you like just kind of suck it up for a few days, you start to get used to it. And then um occasionally I'll throw in like a element pack or something if it's like uh you know, going for a run or workout or whatever. So you can do some things to flat water to make it a little more interesting occasionally.

SPEAKER_01 1:49:06

So anyway, I'm I'm I'm it's funny that you know you the people need know that you're not a uh quote unquote flat water drinker because I I mean maybe I'm wrong. I have never heard it called flat water. I would use the term still or just water, but that's that's how far removed you are from yeah, it's just absurd. When you said I'm backing on flat water, I didn't even know what you were talking about, you know, until until you clarified. So that is a person who has been far removed from uh still or normal water for a long time. Wow, that's that's that's good. That's good. You'll have a bunch of extra space in the garage now with all the Tapo Chico boxes no longer there. So um mine mine is a uh is something we actually talked about. We want guests, we need more guests. Um, so if if you all have someone you think would be Good on the show. One of the that's the most challenging thing I think about this show is coming up with topics for the solos and then getting guests. Um, we've had a string of like absolute crushers on the podcast. And I think one of the things that that causes is it's it's challenging and potentially intimidating to get you know people on the the podcast to follow some of those people up. But like we want, you know, the people we like are, you know, people in the trenches working hard no matter what they're doing. So like or like don't have to be at the absolute pinnacle of you know the totem pole. So if you have someone you think would be would be good for the show or you think you would be good for the show, um please, please let us know. We're we're looking for a guest. We have a couple, I think, lined up for maybe the next couple weeks, but we like to get these scheduled out in advance so that you know you you all don't have to hear just us two ramble for two hours. So if you have any good guests, let us uh let us know.

SPEAKER_02 1:50:55

Agree.

SPEAKER_04 1:50:56

Oh, and if you were interested, we're potentially interested in uh Charleston sports betting meetup. We've uh we've run into a couple of people on the internet who who live in Charleston who are in the betting scene. So if you if that applies to you greater Charleston area, that's South Carolina, not West Virginia. Yes, yes, we don't you could come if you live in Charleston, West Virginia, but we will not be going to you. Um yeah, so anyway, hit a mere sp up for that, and thanks everybody for all the questions as always and listening, and we will see you on the next episode.