Million Dollar Manual Trading w/ Clay Alter | Ep 154

Today we interview Clay Alter (ClayA on Kalshi) about his start in sports betting and recent rise up the Kalshi leaderboard. Clay shocks SP and GP when he says he manages his orders fully from the orders tab on the Kalshi UI. Possibly the most manual trader we have had on and he's crossed $1.5 million in profits in 8 months on Kalshi. A great reminder that there are many ways to do it!
Follow Clay on twitter: https://x.com/alter_clay

0:00 Intro
13:00 Getting Started w/ Sports Betting
38:00 Switching to Kalshi 
1:18:40 Listener Questions

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Match. Like everyone knows, you know, for an NFL game, like everyone's betting yes touchdown scores, right? But maybe, you know, if you are on the no side enough, you know that like very specific players, that price isn't esteem like five cents down. So just wait. And like that, there's like one player that I consistently saw that happen because there's just so much rec flow on the what's up everybody.

SPEAKER_01 0:40

We got GPS P C A. We got Clay A. Uh, I think you're you're on Twitter, you're Clay Alter, right?

SPEAKER_00 0:52

So we're not I came in with my public persona and then maybe had second thoughts about that later, but it was out of the box.

SPEAKER_01 1:00

So okay, we can cut that if you want to delete your Twitter. Um, no, it's it's fine. I was like, actually, I should have made sure. But anyway, yeah, your clay alter on Twitter, Clay A on on Call She. Thanks for joining us for another. We're on fire with like first podcast guests who also crush it. Gambling. It's a generational run, SP.

SPEAKER_03 1:26

Yeah, yeah, we're excited. I was, you know, I was talking to my wife about the, I usually give some so she's curious, like the guests we have on. And I was talking, and it made me realize like how grateful I am for the Calci Leaderboard, um, because it gives us like an infinite supply of guests, or at least a starting supply of guests that would be hard. So for anybody, you know, hasn't heard of Clay, Clay's been doing very well on Calci for some time now. We'll get into um, you know, all the prediction market stuff, certainly. But when we were getting ready for this episode, you you shared a couple of notes, and I had no idea, you know, I had the gambling Twitter space is a big space, and you think you know like all the corners of it, but I I had no idea. You were sort of like in the space for longer than I had thought. Uh, I thought you were just like a prediction market play, but you've actually been um doing different types of gambling for for a decent amount of time. So why don't why don't you kick us off with like where you started betting? I know you had mentioned poker in the outline, but like how you got into it and and what those early experiences were like.

SPEAKER_00 2:25

Yeah, definitely. I uh I started with poker, um, I think it was 2017. I had just graduated college, was working at my first corporate job, and this guy I met at work uh was Italian and had played uh a ton of poker.

SPEAKER_01 2:43

So obviously he played poker. Yeah, I met at work was Italian, so that's all we need to know there. Is that like a standard stereotype that I don't know?

SPEAKER_00 2:50

Like he just Euros are generally pretty good at uh poker, I'd say got it. Um so he had played, like made a bunch of money and was able to go to Carnegie Mellon for university with the money he made from poker. So I think it was just one day after work. He's like, You want to go to the casino? It wasn't too far from us. Um I had played like a couple times as a kid, but you know, nothing serious. Uh so I we went, played, discussed the hands after, and I was like, Oh, this is like this isn't just luck. There's a ton of skill and logic involved. So pretty much like I probably went like five days a week for the next year or something after that. And it probably took me about a week to realize like, okay, I think I'm winning in this game. Like beating one-two live is pretty easy.

SPEAKER_01 3:42

A week after you went for the first time?

SPEAKER_00 3:45

Yeah, but I was playing every day, so maybe I looked actually at my old sessions. I think I won like small that first session, and then lost three in a row, and then from there I won like my next five sessions, and I probably was winning at that point.

SPEAKER_01 4:00

What uh I mean even yeah, one, two live, obviously soft, but like that's pretty impressive. I like were you studying away from the table, or like you literally just played poker for the first time? And is this AC?

SPEAKER_00 4:15

Uh no, I was playing at a small card club in West Palm Beach. So probably wouldn't have heard of it, but I definitely spent a lot of hours at work like reading content after I went that first day. Um, and we like would go to the gym together during work. So the whole time we were at the gym, I'd just be like asking him questions. And it probably helped. I was like pretty tight. So if you're just not playing a ton of hands pre-flop, it's not that hard to just play good hands and get the money in good.

SPEAKER_03 4:48

So what's interesting about that story is you know, that was that's fairly late. Obviously, you know, like it's all relative in your life. But I, you know, I feel like most of the people we've had on the podcast had some story of them gambling at an age far earlier than probably what is uh pluralized society. So that's fairly late. So what I'm curious about is I I feel like it when most people hit a certain age and they're you know they've not been bit by the gambling bug, they sort of view it as like, I'm just gonna lose money no matter what. Like this is just not worth it. It's just like a suckers game. What was it because you had this friend who you know you trusted and saw sort of like the results that he put you said he paid for his school with it? Or is there something else that made you think like this is actually something worth doing? It's not just like you know, sucker waste of time type thing.

SPEAKER_00 5:36

Yeah, I think that definitely helped knowing like, all right, like this is a smart guy. Clearly, there's um something there. And I did like research, like it's fairly easy to find some videos and understand, like, okay, this is a math game, not a game of luck. Um and my cousin had also played poker like when I was much younger. I think it was like an all-interfold game, if you know what that is, where it's basically you just have to go all inner fold pre-flop. And as long as you just wait for decent cards, you're probably gonna win because people just punt off. Um, so I knew a little bit like, okay, you could make money doing this, but um I just hadn't gotten into it myself.

SPEAKER_03 6:22

So you're you're working, you're playing poker. Maybe give a little bit of context on like what your your schooling background was, just a little bit of like what your your back. So when we were going through the conversation, we have a little bit of context on like what you went to school for, what you were doing. Um, because I think eventually, you know, you move into sports and all these other things. So maybe give a little context on what you were doing for the job, and then maybe talk a little bit about um when you started to maybe branch out or like your first experiences outside of poker.

SPEAKER_00 6:53

Yeah. So I went to University of Miami for school, studied finance and accounting, kind of thought I would go like investment banking route, but um didn't get that like junior year internship, which without that it's pretty hard to do. Um so I ended up going into the renewable energy space, um, kind of like an analyst analyzing the probability of solar and battery storage that you would put behind the meter at like a corporate, let's say Amazon headquarters or big companies, you put it on their site and it offsets their electricity bill. Um so I was doing that. Eventually joined like a new product team and got into electric vehicles, um, where we were trying to convert fleets, like let's say a fleet of school buses from diesel to electric and financing that whole operation, um, buying the buses, putting in the chargers. So that was like a big analytical problem. Like, is this profitable? You have to have software that figures out these buses have these routes they got to go on, when can they charge? All that stuff. So I think I was always very good at understanding these kind of complex problems, and so I had a big role in all that. Um, let me try and remember the second part of your question. Oh, other gambling. So I was so so doing all that, I really was playing poker a lot. And I think I had this like dream, maybe like, oh, one day I'll just play poker full time. But poker, which is it's kind of odd, very different to me than sports betting, the mental drain because you kind of always are questioning your decisions versus sports betting. When I make a bet, like I know it's good, so the result doesn't bother me nearly as much as poker, where I'm like, was that a good decision, or am I rationalizing it in retrospect? Um so I was doing all that, COVID happened. I moved, I was actually in San Francisco at the time, so I moved from Florida to San Francisco for the same job. Came back to playing live this week. I was playing mostly live, but I also did play online, especially once COVID happened.

SPEAKER_01 9:18

Yeah, I was I was gonna ask about COVID. Okay.

SPEAKER_00 9:21

Yeah, so like I was going live to a casino um in the Bay Area, and then COVID happened, and I just started playing online, um, which obviously is a lot harder, but I was still profitable online, just you're going smaller stakes. Um yeah, then my brother actually this was I think early 2021. My brother must have joined the sports books and he wanted a referral bonus. So I was like, sure, I'll sign up. He told me about the sign-up promos, those made sense. So I I did that, and then I think I just saw like, oh, there's these odd boosts, they're boosting like odds from plus a hundred to like plus two hundred. Like that seems good. You look up, there's a two-way line, you're like, okay, that's gotta be good. So I just started doing those and kind of scaled from there.

SPEAKER_01 10:16

Yeah, I I agree with you on poker. Like in poker, you'll make a fold and you'll never know if it was good. It can literally just haunt you for the rest of your life. You'll know that you'll never see your opponent's hand, and you'll be like, even if you did see their hand, like you wouldn't even really know if it was a good fold.

SPEAKER_00 10:35

I would come back at like, I don't know, like on a weekday, maybe like 1 a.m. or something. I was uh pretty late, and I wouldn't be able to fall asleep till like three because I was just replaying every decision in my head, and that was just not healthy.

SPEAKER_01 10:49

No, and the hours, but I I actually had this this question that popped up because I we have some, you know, we have some guests that come from poker, some that don't. I feel like we have a lot, we have a lot of listeners probably that have maybe gone from poker to sports betting. If sports betting and prediction markets were outlawed tomorrow, would you rather go back to the renewable corporate job or go play full-time poker? Quick answer. You don't have to go too deep into this, but I I'm just curious.

SPEAKER_00 11:21

I I think I'd go back to corporate, but probably a different different industry.

SPEAKER_01 11:25

Yeah, yeah, fair enough. I think so too. So, anyway, so now you see the light with with sports betting. You got your feet wet with some of the promos, which I think a lot of us, that's kind of how a lot of us started. Uh, what was the scale from there? And like at this time, you are working, playing poker, and then your brother uh introduced you to the to the promo. So it's kind of like three things going on at once, or where were you?

SPEAKER_00 11:54

Yeah. This was like 2021 COVID, um, working, playing some online poker in New Jersey, and then started sports betting as well. And probably two months into that, um, some you know, frustrations I had with um, we kind of had like a re-org at work, and I was a little frustrated with the direction some of the leadership of my company was going in. So I just decided to, I'm gonna quit work, I'm gonna do some traveling. I'd saved up a bunch of money. And when I came back from traveling, I was like, let me give it like five months to just kind of chill. And during that five months, I think I just was constantly making more and more money each month from betting, that it got to the point where I was like, okay, I'm almost making what I was making at my corporate job now from betting. Let me just stick with this and see how long it lasts.

SPEAKER_03 12:54

So I want to ask you about like your brother basically, and like what was the impetus of him getting you started like in gambling at all? Like, was he a gambler? Was he just seeing the ads and taking the easy money? Well, one thing I wanted to ask you about, because um, you know, maybe we could come back to this later, but I I thought it was an interesting point you said. You said, like, now when you make a bet, you know it's good, as opposed to, you know, in poker, that's not necessarily the case. I know everybody has like different betting styles and whatnot. I would say for me, I would love if every time I made a bet I knew it was good, but there's plenty of times still, like in sports betting, where that's not the case for me. So is that do you think that's like um a like when you said that, is that a reflection of your betting style, which we'll sort of like get into like what types of stuff you're betting? Is that an indict or is that more just like you know, over the long term, I know like this is good, or or what what comes behind that statement?

SPEAKER_00 13:45

Um, I think it's definitely my betting style. I tend to only make bets that I think have quite a high ROI. And if I am originating something, it's usually uh we can kind of get into this more, but it's like creating a model from a baseline. So like if you have someone's player points and you just want to come up with like what is their series, what is the chance they're gonna average like 20 points in a series, and you know their game one line is 15 and a half points, like you can pretty confidently come up with that number. And you know, if if something's I make it, you know, 20% is the fair odds, and it's listed at plus 450, I'm probably not gonna bet it. If it's listed at like plus 700, I'm gonna take it. And even if I'm you know a little bit off in my math, I know that's still gonna be good.

SPEAKER_03 14:42

Got it. So it's like a reflection on on your your sort of bet selection. You're you're trying to find, you know, like in general, pretty pretty big spots where the pretty serious deviations.

SPEAKER_00 14:54

Exactly. Yep.

SPEAKER_01 14:55

I think in poker too, like the big decisions and the big spots are always so close, like the ones that you think about. So like your biggest like river spots are gonna be stuff like you might not have studied, and it's gonna be like a really weird run out, and you just don't really know. So like your biggest bets and biggest spots in poker, I feel like are almost the opposite of sports betting, where it's like the thinnest spots, you know.

SPEAKER_00 15:24

Definitely, or you've been playing with someone for I don't know, an hour and you you saw them show up with one hand that doesn't make that much sense, but like it's hard to generalize. Like maybe that's their strategy that they they play some crazy hand early on, and then you think they're crazy, and oh, they actually just don't bluff after that. Like so you constructed a range for them that you know maybe was completely wrong because you based it on such a small sample, and you don't really run into that issue nearly as much in uh betting, I'd say. So uh yeah, I was gonna touch on you asked about my brother as well. He's just like a uh huge sports fan. So I think his kind of uh I I think had I not influenced him, he probably would have been like the normal recreational, like throw five dollars on a parlay on on the weekends kind of uh better. But um yeah, once I got into betting, I was like, all right, you're gonna make money doing this, and you're not gonna be able to do that.

SPEAKER_03 16:25

So now he can't even enjoy betting anymore. You totally ruined it. I've ruined it for him. Yeah, yeah. He kind of just can't watch sports, can't enjoy betting. He loves sports, and now it's just the whole thing has been tarnished because of your decisions. But oh the thing that that's helpful context because the thing I was gonna ask is you had this, you you had this buddy in um poker who you saw won and that like contributed to you taking seriously. It's obviously different if you were like taking poker seriously and then going into sports. But was there any like it sounds like pretty quickly you because a lot of people see the bonuses and take advantage of that? I have friends who think gambling, like you know, they're gonna lose and you know, whatever, but we'll still like take the free money or whatever. But they that's sort of where they leave it. Was there any like inclination of that, or did it immediately click for you that you know, I I know you mentioned some of the other promo stuff, so maybe you could talk about like whether that stuff clicked immediately for you, and then eventually you will move past like promo stuff. And so, like, how did that evolution take place?

SPEAKER_00 17:25

Yeah, so it's hard for me to remember exactly, but I know very early on I found um Captain Jack's videos on YouTube, and that was definitely really helpful. Like he does a very good job of explaining like say like the basic concepts and even some more advanced stuff. So that was probably my main teaching tool. Um, along with I think some of it was probably pretty in intuitive, but um, that was very helpful. And then I used so I was doing all these promos, I would send like a text to my brother, like screenshot promos, you know, every single day. And and you get to the point where you're doing like 10 different books, like and then I think I had my best friend in this chat too. So I'm I'm doing all this work, and I was like, I wonder if there's like a Twitter account or something that does these promos. And he was also he was in Michigan, I was in New Jersey, so there was state-specific boosts. So now I'm like calculating, you know, is this a play for something? I'm not even betting. So I went on Twitter and I found this uh promo guy 123 account that literally put out the promos for I think it was like FanDuel at the time, DraftKings, Caesars, and maybe like Barstool. Um, and I was like, okay, this guy seems like he knows what he's doing, like just follow him. And that actually he had a Discord that he launched at some point. I joined that Discord, and his big thing was same game parlays, and that's kind of how I went from like books are efficient, but I can win on the promos to wait a second, maybe there's actually a lot of inefficiencies, and there's a lot of other ways to win.

SPEAKER_01 19:11

I think that's it's interesting that you went from promos to SGPs. Like there, I feel like SGP, we've had people who've come on in their first kind of like big spots have been SGPs, but even I I don't know. I don't I haven't watched all of Captain Jack's videos, but I feel like coming from that, you know, you'd be maybe like coming from that in poker, you'd be maybe skeptical of of SGPs, but like that was a spot where I was like way too skeptical. Like that was SGPs like early were probably a big missed opportunity for me. So how did you kind of quickly get on board to be like, oh, this is a huge spot when a lot of the rhetoric at the time was like SGPs are like the worst bet being offered?

SPEAKER_00 19:57

Yeah, and I will say there was a period of time in there because um I think it was Oddsboom before Oddsham bought them. That was like a really cheap tool, it was like 15 bucks a month, and they would send you like arbitrage plays. So I did do a little bit of arbitrage um first, and I think like I had seen a Captain Jack video on arbitrage. I mean, and also in school, like arbitrage is a thing in finance. So I was familiar with that, but I think it was just like this guy was very good at articulating why the same game parlays were good, and it was also pretty evident, like he would do some what I'll call like c he would call combo plays, where he would do a play on two different sports books that created a synthetic line for like a main line. So let's just say it was like the blue jays to win and over nine and a half runs on one book, and then the other book would be the blue Jays to win and under nine and a half runs. So essentially you're just taking the Blue Jays to win, and the combined price, let's say the Blue Jays fair price to win is plus a hundred in the market, and both those same game parlays were like plus three fifty. So that's like uh eight. Did I do that right? Yeah, I think that's like twenty-three percent each of those, so those add up to like 46%, something like that. So you have a clear edge from doing this combo play, and so that kind of takes away like any doubt that maybe you don't know which side of the same game parlay at which book is good, but you could just do this combo and come up with a line that often you could just ARB the main line. If the Blue Jays were playing the Mets, you could take the Mets at um, you know, plus a hundred on the other side, and you have this synthetic that's like plus one fifteen, so you created an ARB. I don't know if that made sense.

SPEAKER_01 21:53

Yeah, I I'm literally like, am I stupid? Like, I never thought of this or have heard of this.

SPEAKER_00 22:00

I I think I think promo this promo guy one two three like is like a lot of the sharp community isn't super aware of him, but he's one of the brightest pe I've never met him or anything, but just he would have like spaces and just the stuff he came up with, like extremely smart stuff. So I think I was lucky to stumble across like one of the few non-scam Discords out there.

SPEAKER_01 22:24

Yeah, it's like certainly unique. Like I everybody and and me included, I feel like talks who thinks about SGPs, they're like, oh, like they bro this leg is like broken, or you do this inverse correlation, and it's like or this, yeah, yeah, you do like an inversely correlated thing, but it's penalized too much or whatever. But I never thought of just like using it to basically trade basically to R.

SPEAKER_00 22:50

Yeah. That's yeah, he and he came up with it, it honestly shocked me. Like there's so many good things he'd come up with, and you'd think like, okay, all these edges are gonna die pretty fast. But I think most people in there just were not gonna reverse engineer like what is causing this edge. Like, I would say, okay, what's causing the edge? And now let me before he even posts anything, like, let me check it for every game or every player, and then I was just betting them all on my own. And then through that process, you kind of like stumble into other stuff.

SPEAKER_03 23:21

There's a strong uh backing for you know my take of getting in as many discards because you could you could sift through a lot of garbage discards and still have it be worth it if you found like one like that, right? At the time, you know, you it sounds like you got very lucky in one of the first ones you joined was uh was a really good one, but you know that it's it's the only one I've actually ever joined.

SPEAKER_00 23:41

So you're really I think you can tell though from like what people post on Twitter, like are they full of shit or is there like you know, is this person like smart?

SPEAKER_01 23:52

I I think well you can tell now, like like we can all kind of tell now, right?

SPEAKER_00 23:58

That's true. I th I think if you've like been in the space a while and you're pretty sharp, it's a lot easier to differentiate. I think if you're just a regular better, it can be extremely confusing. You just see like, oh, this person's posting like crazy wins, like they must win. Whereas like I see that and I'm like, okay, there's what's the edge here? It's just random.

SPEAKER_03 24:19

Yeah, and I think the other part is like in a sufficiently large Discord, it's like the person running it might not be providing anything of value, but there's there if there's enough people like poking around, eventually, like you know, a squirrel finds a nut and like posts something that's interesting sometimes, and you're like, they might not even understand really what they found. Like to your point of of like, I think a lot of the Discords like rely on people not actually understanding what they're doing and just like sort of give them the pick and hope it never gets destroyed. But you know, for someone who's actually trying to um you know win and take it seriously, that's where most of the edges is figuring out what they're actually doing.

SPEAKER_00 25:00

No, that's a good point. There was definitely people that would post a lot of times, it's like, hey, I found this, like this seems like it might be good, and they don't really know, and then you're like, Oh, that's that's definitely good. Like, and you you kind of just don't say anything and you just wanna download it, you give it the download it. Yeah, you're gonna be able to do it.

SPEAKER_01 25:18

Not sure this shit chalk, dude.

SPEAKER_00 25:22

Uh it's actually funny. I did join the Bookie Beats Discord, they had like a one-week free trial, and I went in there and I saw Kobe, who I you guys might have had on there.

SPEAKER_01 25:32

Or he's no Kobe is a uh he'll come on when he's retired at 24 in Costa Rica.

SPEAKER_00 25:41

I I thought maybe he was on one podcast. Maybe not, maybe I just see him all.

SPEAKER_01 25:44

He asked questions. We like Kobe. I think we asked him, he's just he makes too too much money right now, I guess. I don't know.

SPEAKER_00 25:51

Yeah, see him on the leaderboards, you know. I'm trying to chase him down. Um I saw he was I'm I'm getting closer coming for you, Kobe. Um, I saw he was in this Discord, so I literally just like searched his name and I'm reading through like every comment he's written, like trying to figure out if he like you know said something about his edge, like um didn't didn't find anything useful, but I was kind of just snooping in this Discord to see like is anyone putting out anything interesting. Unfortunately, didn't find anything.

SPEAKER_03 26:22

So I I imagine the people in that Discord are pretty um sharp about what they say and don't say, you know.

SPEAKER_01 26:28

Yeah, I was gonna say, like SP your theory is like you find a Discord where actually like nobody sharp would think it's it's good. Like Bookie Beats, I'm thinking of probably purpose Discord. I I don't know.

SPEAKER_03 26:39

Like everybody's probably very thoughtful about what they say in there because they know there's a lot of like the unabated Discord, you're not gonna go and ones where people are just firing off takes without a single written.

SPEAKER_00 26:51

There's also a lot of a lot of junk to wait through. Like, so these Discords have so many channels that are just no doubt.

SPEAKER_03 26:59

I sometimes see the Cauchy Discord, and it's like a fire hose of garbage most of the time. But uh let's get told like go in there, it's hilarious. But I don't know. It is good content like around like when the the site goes down or there's something going on, whatever, market gets canceled, deposits. It's uh it's brilliant what's going on there. But let's get let's get back to back on track. So you're you're betting SGPs, you're still working at this point.

SPEAKER_00 27:28

Do my understanding is at this point I I had quit, I had quit my job like bef before I was even like I don't know, I was making a few thousand a month when I'd quit my job from betting.

SPEAKER_03 27:40

So what was that decision? Like I know you had mentioned that.

SPEAKER_00 27:42

You were that was just like I was just like, I'm ready for a break from work. Like I was just frustrated with with work, but I was fully expecting at that point to get another job. I was just like, okay, it's I'd saved up a lot of money. I had a runway, I could have lived, you know, for a couple years if I didn't have a job.

SPEAKER_01 28:00

Where did you travel to? I'm just just curious.

SPEAKER_00 28:03

Like uh it was like Europe, Italy. Uh I went to see that poker friend. He uh nice so I traveled with him and then kind of on my own to France and Spain. Wow. Very cool.

SPEAKER_03 28:19

So you're gonna get another job. When does when does it sort of like set in the realization that like I'm actually not getting another job?

SPEAKER_00 28:27

Um I think it was it was a couple months in. Like I think I'd made like my first, I don't know, maybe like fifth like$15,000 a month. And like I was tracking daily, and like I think I was probably up money like 80% of my days, and I was like, okay, this is actually it which isn't that sounds kind of crazy, but when you're doing a ton of promos, like the edge is so high, it's and you're doing them across like 10 books, it's it's pretty easy to almost always have a winning day. Um so I was just like, this is pretty consistent. I think my main reservation was like, uh, what are my parents gonna think if I'm doing this? Like, I know they want me to get a regular job, but uh at some point the money was just like good enough that I felt like this was a defensible decision.

SPEAKER_01 29:18

So why did that go? Yeah, like telling your parents. That's what everybody like honestly, like that is a huge question. It's like not like should I do this? It's like how can I tell my parents? I'm like, dude, you're like 32.

SPEAKER_03 29:32

Well you weren't at the time. How old were you?

SPEAKER_01 29:34

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 29:36

And like I'm you know, pretty independent. Like I wasn't I think that's just kind of like another hurdle in your mind. It's not like, oh, if they say no, like that's gonna, you know, change my decision. It's just like another thing you think about. Um, and also like just, you know, I'm still single, but was single at the time. Like, all right, now you you gotta go date and you gotta explain to people that like, yeah, I'm a professional gambler, but like it's not really gambling, like it's consistent income, etc.

SPEAKER_03 30:08

So you what I wanted to I did want to ask about like you know, where your like did the conversation with your parents go well? And then the other part um I wanted to ask was was related to like some of the your views on like the longevity of it. Because obviously, like part of it, you know, it's easy to make a little bit of money at most sportsbooks. It's hard to make a lot of money at most sportsbooks with limits and all you know these things. So I wanted to ask about those two things.

SPEAKER_00 30:37

Yeah, it wasn't like uh I think the conversation was always like, hey, this is good. I'm gonna do it while it lasts. And in my mind, and I probably told people I was like, yeah, probably another like 12 months, and then it's gonna be done. And then it just kind of kept extending. Smart. Now obviously.

SPEAKER_01 30:56

It's just like uh why not, why not say that? Yeah, like it's like I'll be doing this for another 12 months. Yeah, sure. And then after that, you still could be doing it in another 12 months.

SPEAKER_00 31:06

Exactly.

SPEAKER_03 31:08

So on the on the on like the longevity, like were you were you still on like sort of like your own all doing this all your own? I know you had mentioned you were you know in a chat with your brother and and and maybe friends. Like how how were you viewing this as like a long-term, even like a year, right? Like I don't I don't know exactly. Obviously, I would say you know, accounts get cracked down quicker these days and probably back then and whatnot, but um, I'm sure you were aware of some of like the hurdles like to scaling this and making this long-term viable back then as well. So how did you think about those?

SPEAKER_00 31:40

Yeah, I I was all on my own, and I like I literally only had my own accounts um like into 2024, like the first three years basically was just me on my accounts. They lasted pretty long, I would say. Um I wasn't betting huge, which maybe helped, and then there's casino in New Jersey, which I think is a big help to getting longevity out of uh DraftKings specifically, but probably some of these other ones as well. Um so I I I mean to this day I'm pretty much just all on my own. So I I never really thought about like scaling what I I did scale with some, you know, partnerships, we'll call them, but not like it was basically just me sending bets to people and like we'll split this 50-50, like friends kind of thing. Um and then once I hopped on Calci and New Jersey changed their laws with proxy betting, which a whole other thing. That laws kind of convoluted what it actually means, but so I kind of just stopped that and back on Calci, just doing that on my own.

SPEAKER_01 32:52

The the one thing I wanted to touch on before we got to Calci was you did say that you were briefly running a Discord, it was like a lot of friends and maybe some family, but there's been questions. I I saw one on Twitter from somebody who was quite a good better who was like, should I do a product or a Discord or just keep betting? What was uh I I've been there, I think betting is definitely the choice. Um, but like maybe for people who think that there's a lot of scale there, like what was what was that like and why did you decide to just just bet instead of going that route?

SPEAKER_00 33:31

Yeah, so I did I started the Discord um I don't know 2022 sometime. Um mostly it was like you know, my I had this group chat that probably had like three or four people now, my brother, my best friend, my cousin maybe. And it's just like they're blowing me up with questions, my phone's buzzing nonstop. I was like, let's make this a Discord, and then I was like, why don't I just post it on Twitter and you know see if anyone wants to join? Because I'm gonna be posting all this stuff anyway, and maybe a couple people join. So that's kind of how it started. Was just like, I'm trying to give all these plays to my you know family and friends. And then I I grew a little bit. I think the most people it ever had was like 50 people. And I had a friend that was like, hey, like we had a little arrangement where he was in a like market for me. He made an Instagram, he made all these videos, he put up posters like all over New York City bars. None of that like helped, like it did not scale up.

SPEAKER_01 34:32

Wow, the in the grassroots sports fanning discord.

SPEAKER_00 34:36

He he had a he had a guy that he paid that does that. Um I got one person from a poster, and it was like an older, like I think it was like a 50-year-old gentleman that joined and um from that. So that was kind of funny. Um But yeah, like the the amount of money I made, I think over three years was like$80,000 from the Discord, it was like$50 a month, and probably 20% of the people weren't paying because it was like family and really close friends. Right. So like all the stress from that, and also just like I could have just scaled my own edges, 100% not worth it. But there's some good aspects, like I feel good about making all these people money. Um and then like when you do hit a play, like it's nice, like everyone's yeah, everyone's celebrating it, like you feel better. But like I could be having like the best week ever, and someone new joins, and you like lose the bets that day, and it's just like it feels shitty. Like, I know I'm giving out good plays, I know they're gonna win eventually, but yeah, it was that and just having to commit to like show up each day and get all the plays, and that's a lot of work.

SPEAKER_03 35:54

So, how did you ultimately it sounds like it was uh sunset and it is helpful context on that? Because you know, when if you had a Discord with 50 people, I think that's probably from my vantage point, especially if it's like family or friends, it's probably more challenging to sunset that than if you have a Discord with like a thousand people and they're just randoms on the internet. Um, so was that like a challenge for you?

SPEAKER_00 36:17

Was that our decision? It it was like it was probably like a year and a half where I kept being like, okay, like I'm gonna stop it, I'm gonna stop it. And I just like I couldn't like people didn't want me to go, but eventually, like when I started doing very well on Cal She, I was like, I need to devote my time to this. And and so I basically was like, hey, I'm gonna stop in a month, like I'm gonna cancel everyone's memberships now, but like I'll do it for another month. And I think I December 31st of 2025 was my last day.

SPEAKER_01 36:51

How's it been? Uh well we this could oh sorry, SP.

SPEAKER_03 36:55

I'm just gonna ask one other question on Discord. Like, were there were there like long-term benefits you got from it? Like because one of the things that I think is challenging for people starting is like getting exposed to other people. I think we've done like an episode and like trying to put yourself out there and and meet other people in the gambling space. I'm sure over like over that time you got a lot of exposure to other people. Uh obviously you were seemingly giving most of the plays, but I'm guessing there were other people obviously trying to win in some of that stuff. So, like, did that did that help you at all? Like, or was it really just you know giving the giving the fish to the people?

SPEAKER_00 37:30

Yeah, it's mostly just giving the fish to the people. Uh yeah, there were maybe when I joined Promo Guys Discord, like there was some other people where I mean I never formed like any strong connections with anyone, which like that's something that now I'm more interested in doing, but at least I got a lot more value from other posters and in that Discord than my own was just yeah, me giving out the value. Got it.

SPEAKER_01 38:01

All right, well, it's a good it's a good way to get into prediction markets. So the end of last year is when you decided to you know sunset the Discord because of Colistry because of prediction markets. So obviously there was like a bit of a buildup before then where you you know started doing well. What was your first exposure to prediction markets? First kind of when did you realize like, oh, this is a good opportunity, and uh and so on.

SPEAKER_00 38:33

Yeah, I had signed up for for call she um like around the election because I was like, oh, maybe there will be some opportunity on election. I saw I saw your account.

SPEAKER_01 38:44

I was checking, and you were a 2024 call she, those are rare. I was like just trying to do my due diligence. I was like, damn, that's crazy.

SPEAKER_00 38:52

Yeah, I just thought like, oh, you know, this is probably you know uh pretty arrogant that I would have some edge on politics day of election, but I I don't know. It's like who knows what could happen. Um, I didn't end up betting anything on election day, and I pretty much didn't use the account until I saw someone I follow post the daily leaderboard. It was like September 2025, and they had made like$40,000 in a day, and I was like, well, I like knew this person from a Discord, like they seem like a regular better. Like, there's gotta be some huge value here if they're making forty thousand dollars in a day. Like, I didn't think they were like a massive better either. Um so like I hopped on and pretty quickly like found what I'd say was like my first edge. Just it was like a live edge, college football. Um and from there it just kind of like grew. Like that I I think like pretty much the first week, I was like, okay, I think I can make like decent money. And then every week after that, I was like, oh, like this could be really good. And then just kept kind of finding new edges and scaling.

SPEAKER_03 40:13

So there's a bunch of different questions we're probably gonna ask and probably be on this topic a while. But maybe can you give so you you made the account around the election? So that's like November 24. When when do you actually make the first trade? What what approximate month?

SPEAKER_00 40:25

I think I'd made like one, I think I made a trade on like the hot dog eating competition in July, but like realistically, I started in September uh 2025.

SPEAKER_03 40:35

Okay, so it's dormant because uh as sort of the I think my account was actually made in November 2024. Unlike you, I actually you know did have the hubris to try and trade the election. I think lost lost some money, and then the account was dormant for over a year uh before I got on. Yeah, I was I was priming it. Um I yeah, so uh that happened. But I I guess so you you get on the the thing I'm interested in, maybe to start with this conversation is the stuff you you described you were doing on uh traditional sports books doesn't necessarily seem like the greatest fit, like transition over to prediction markets, at least you know, from my perspective, like SGP type stuff and and all of that stuff isn't like a clean one-to-one fit. Because like if I was talking to someone and they said, I've been doing live ARBing for the past you know six months, I'd be like, okay, this is probably a really sensible fit. So why maybe like walk me through like maybe that's a mischaracterization and you were doing other stuff on the traditional sports book, or like did you see this as a good fit right away? Um, it sounds like you found like a college football and sort of knew potentially what you were looking for, or were you just sort of peeking around and found what you found?

SPEAKER_00 41:48

Yeah, no, I did a lot of other stuff on traditional sports books and like prize pick, prize picks, underdog. Um I think I've like one of my best traits is I was just very good at finding edges. I wasn't very good at you know maximizing the value of them because I didn't scale up. But I think in terms of like the value of a lot of edges that I found, like were very good. So just having the mindset like I could go on this platform, and if there are edges, I think I will find them. That was kind of my mindset. Um and like some of those I could, you know, quickly like list some of other edges I had.

SPEAKER_03 42:28

Um able to talk about. Obviously, we don't want you to talk about anything you don't want to talk about, but anything, you know, to help give context. Because what what I think people are interested in, what I'm I'm interested in is you said, like your your your skill is finding edges. Like I'm curious, like what what you think, like if we distill that, what about you is is good at that, or like what what makes you actually good at that?

SPEAKER_00 42:51

Yeah, I'd say like okay, so one thing is like futures, whether it's like props or maybe just like team futures. Um when you're on a sports book, like there's tons of stuff offered, you're scanning through it. I think I'm very good at seeing something and pretty quickly knowing, like, is this worth my time to investigate or not? So I have a pretty good innate sense of like what a fair price is for something that for many people might not be intuitive, like they might have no idea. Um so like an example of that for this past Super Bowl, I looked on DraftKings really quickly and saw it was like um Drake May to throw for a hundred yards in any quarter. Um, and I think it was like plus four fifty. And I was like, okay, that seems like one of his lines like 220 or something like that. It was good for both quarterbacks, but I was like, okay, this this seems good. How can I quickly like come up with a a fair price for that? And it was like, okay, yeah, this is maybe like plus one seventy fair or something like that. Um So that whole process might take me, you know, five or ten minutes. And I think if you're really good at finding edges, it's like identifying something looks off. And how can I come with up with a very quick approximation? And I think that skill translates well to live markets because a lot of times, let's say I'm looking at a basketball game and it's late in the game, I might be trying to predict in my head like if this event happens, what should the price roughly be? And I don't need to be that accurate. I just have to have a sense that if it's way off from that, I can quickly act. So um I think that's like a common skill in live, is like what might happen that could shift um the game state, and already having a sense of like what that price should look like can put you ahead of the rest of the market.

SPEAKER_01 44:59

So you're kind of you say you're basically plugged into the game and you have these different like branches of the tree that it can go down, and you kind of have your your price before things happen for that, so that when they do happen, you're not as much reacting as you are like, oh, that's off, like I'm more attacking, like waiting for the spot.

SPEAKER_00 45:23

Yeah, I'd say that's like I have other, you know, repeatable things that are you know less dependent on I'll call like a high leverage situation, but I think there's always an opportunity when you're at uh a sporting event and it's in a high leverage situation because a model like one, like sports books often won't even have a lineup, like if it's late in a game. And I think when they don't have a lineup, a lot of people just derive their prices from what the sports books show and don't have their own kind of model. Or so I think those situations are always opportunities. And and the spread's gonna be a lot bigger than like you know, early in a game, it might be a one, two cent spread, but with five seconds left, it's probably not so.

SPEAKER_03 46:13

I want to ask about like your your makeup of bets and like what types of things you're doing on prediction market, like pregame live, automated manual taking, making, all that stuff. But maybe like to just you know wrap up this specific example we're talking about, like in in these types of spots, do you view you know your edge as uh you know speed in those instances, or is it like having the right opinion in those instances or a combination of the two? I mean, I'm guessing you have to be somewhat fast, right? But I'm I guess I'm I'm curious, like it's it's a combination.

SPEAKER_00 46:49

I mean, if you're betting, like let's say you're watching a game on ESPN Plus and you're 45 seconds behind, like you're not gonna you're not gonna be able to, you know, come up with a good enough price fast enough. But um Yeah, it's a combination, I'd say.

SPEAKER_03 47:08

So maybe to my question, like it's it sounds like you do a bunch of different things and you're you know on on the prediction markets. So maybe let's just go through each each one of the cuts um that I'm interested in. If I miss any GP, feel free to jump in. So in terms of making peaking, like what do you what do you estimate your your split of that is?

SPEAKER_00 47:29

It's definitely mostly making, like maybe 90% making.

SPEAKER_03 47:34

Okay, interesting. That's what I would have assumed coming into the show, but you know, sort of the way you're maybe misled.

SPEAKER_00 47:39

I'm still when I'm I'm still usually making in those instances, largely just I don't like paying the fees. And and I'm just like always a bit more scared to take if it's a sizable position. So I prefer to make.

SPEAKER_03 47:56

Makes total sense to me. Like I said, that's what I would have assumed coming into the episode. I think I'm always surprised when when we have someone on, you know, uh who does more taking for those, you know, those pushes. Sharp takers. We we don't allow them on our show, but that's fine.

SPEAKER_01 48:10

We're gonna bring some on one day.

SPEAKER_03 48:12

We had maybe so that maybe most so mostly uh making in terms of pregame live. Sounds like you do at least some live.

SPEAKER_00 48:20

Is it mostly live or it's it's mostly live, yeah. I would do more pre-game if so I'm all manual, like I don't use the API, and I don't like having things just sitting in my resting page because I'm scared that I'm gonna like adjust the wrong thing. So I don't like have any futures just sitting there like trying to fill orders, or that that's probably why I'm mostly live, is I don't like stuff cluttering up my resting page on Calci. Well that page is slow, guys.

SPEAKER_01 48:54

No, that page is slow, it crashes. Like you can't rely on that page.

SPEAKER_00 48:58

If you're managing it, that's all I've done.

SPEAKER_01 49:01

Well, you'll you'll be like, you'll probably have the event up on Calci, right? Like you'll not you're not gonna go, you know, you're not managing everything out of your orders page.

SPEAKER_00 49:10

No, I I have my I manage it all on the resting page. So like I will manually I'll have like contracts filled out, and let's say I just keep both sides of an event at one cent. I will then manually change the price when I'm and click confirm when I want to put up a position.

SPEAKER_03 49:30

This is insane to me. I that page is the most non-functional page I've ever actually thinking about this today. How like you know, Calci, for what it's worth, like their tech is actually like quite good when you compare it to the competitors, I would say. But they've just like thrown in the towel on that page, like it just doesn't work for me like ever.

SPEAKER_01 49:51

You need to like host that page on like your own like AWS server for it to like run.

SPEAKER_03 49:57

I mean, for what it's worth, if you if you're if you're doing like I think the page gets exacerbated, like the problems if you're doing stuff like automated and you have a bunch of stuff hosting and changing. So if you're truly just managing like a small subset, my experience you know might not be indicative of everybody's on that page, but that is fascinating that uh yeah, that that's how you do it.

SPEAKER_00 50:18

Low tech operation over here.

SPEAKER_01 50:21

You can you can make millions of bucks off the orders page. This is like this is huge news that we're breaking on this podcast.

SPEAKER_03 50:31

This is like in the same ballpark as when um XV said he he has all his order notes. This is like in that same universe of it. Yeah, I think so. You're you're basically you're you're watching your effective, are you you know watching a game or a feat of the game? Obviously, like you said, YouTube, TV, or whatever is not gonna be fast enough, but some sort of feed of the game, and then just you know, trying to be quick to react with opinions, um, your perspective, get prices up there and then get filled. Is that sort of like a general overview?

SPEAKER_00 51:05

Yeah, I think that's pretty accurate.

SPEAKER_01 51:09

So one thing one thing I wanted to ask about because we uh SP talked, I think mentioned you on a pod about the uh, or maybe mentioned you to me when we were having dinner about the golf hole scores and that you were in there for those. And I remember I was we had a DM about the uh the Bryson course record YouTube thing. So I I was curious, like, are you attacking these like niche markets? It seems like it fits your style of like being able to get to a price quickly on something. Like, is this kind of part of the portfolio where you find stuff that's new, not really easy to price based off past stuff? Because whole scores for the masters, I think that was the first time it was on call shoe, right? So like nobody's set up to trade those. So is that kind of why you're looking into those?

SPEAKER_00 52:02

Yeah, I definitely like the new markets and um anything that's like new but gets enough volume to be worthwhile. It's also like even if it might not be the most profitable use of my time, it's like a good mental stimulus to attack like a new problem, try and model it out. I don't know if SP thought the same for the the whole scores, but it's like a fun new challenge. I'll take that even if it's like maybe not the best use of my time, um, it's fun.

SPEAKER_03 52:37

Yeah, I think you also learn a bunch. There's like scalable things I think you learn. Like, because you know, for example, when I did the whole score stuff, I have never really done anything in golf. There are some things I learned about You learned the power of Scotty Sheffield? Yeah, like I learned something about, you know, what what type of flow I'm gonna get and like how that should inform what where I want to be and stuff. Um, you know, we in exchanging messages, it seemed like I was I was less successful than you, which is unsurprising given I didn't know what the hell I was doing. But um, you know, so is that are you is that like your do you have sort of core markets that you you focus on sort of like on a day-to-day basis and then you're always scouring for some of the the new things? Is that sort of your strategy?

SPEAKER_00 53:25

Yeah, that that's pretty accurate. And I definitely agree with you on that. Like you pick up patterns and what people will do that even if it's not the same exact person, if it's the same type of person or event, like the rec behavior will match. Like everyone knows, you know, for an NFL game, like everyone's betting yes touchdown scores, right? But maybe, you know, if you are on the no side enough, you know that like very specific players, that price isn't esteem like five cents down. So just wait. And like that, there's like one player that I consistently saw that happen because there's just so much rec flow on this market that it would steam down. And you can pick up those things. Like another thing was like I don't really do much soccer anymore, but like early on, I would like at halftime I might make um prices on soccer, and like Arsenal would always just like I would be no on Arsenal at like 50 cents at halftime, and it would end up at like 48 cents. Like it was always just steaming down because crazy rec flow on on them. So that's helpful.

SPEAKER_03 54:34

Yeah, you you learn, I mean, because you know, if you're listening, you might be saying, Well, like, no duh, you I didn't you didn't need to take that action to learn people want to bet on like yes touchdown stuff, but I think the thing that you said that you you actually learn is like how how much like because you you learn like how do you need to jump the queue? Can you stay in line? Can you go further back, or like how much pain are are the other participants gonna be willing to take in this market or like action? So because you can just get better prices, right? Like, because there's always this this game on these markets of like, do I need to be a top of queue or can I sit where I am and all this? And I think you you get an appreciation if you trade a market enough times a couple of times, like I don't need to always be top of cue for this person, it's gonna get to me.

SPEAKER_00 55:20

Yeah, especially if your risk tolerance isn't infinite and you're like, okay, I'm probably only gonna fill you know 15,000 shares on this. Like, I want to get 15,000 shares at 10 ROI and not 3%.

SPEAKER_03 55:33

Like that that's what yeah, exactly. I mean, that's why you know I I tapped out on Scotty on the first hole eventually, and you know, whoever was patient enough to wait there got a better price than me, probably because I I was not willing to stand there any longer. So um, yeah, I was the you know, I was the the mark in that market.

SPEAKER_01 55:51

So yeah, yeah, you realize like market makers don't have infinite, like the the market can stay rational, but it's not gonna stay rational if everybody's over their Kelly. Like, you know, there's only so much that you can take and everybody can take combined. Like, I don't know which player this is, but like my guess is it's someone like Derrick Henry and like or like Saquon Barkley, and you're just sitting there and it's like, okay, like there's an infinite amount of people willing to bet yes. Like, how can I optimize as a maker to fill my shares at the best price, knowing that it's not as much like, oh, it's a stupid price. You're like, oh, how am I gonna play this game optimally? Yep.

SPEAKER_03 56:37

Yeah, and the other thing with these things, just to close and then we'll move on, is like these are markets where you can make the argument like that for a lot of people, they're not like the most capital you know efficient. And so there's also like aspects with that, you know, there's not infinite bank rolls of everybody, but also like you can make because these are these are laying a lot of money to generally win a little bit. And so that also deters like some people. So where I wanted to go next was you're doing this all manually. How do you, if you do like manage multiple? This may be a stupid question, just like shows how inept I am, but like how do you manage multiple games or events at once? Or are you like sort of from seven to nine, I'm just trading this event, or like this game's getting close to the high leverage end game states I'm gonna lock in on this game, or how how do you think about that?

SPEAKER_00 57:29

Yeah, normally occasionally I'll have like if if it's something that's a little easier to manage, I might be doing a few games at once, but often it's just kind of swapping around to um what I think is gonna be the most profitable game at any given moment and jumping in there.

SPEAKER_03 57:49

Is that hard to do to sort of like I'm guessing you don't watch like the first 44 minutes of a basketball game or something? Um, and I don't know like to what extent that matters or doesn't matter, but is that hard to do to constantly be swapping? Like I guess you know, now as the NBA playoffs or whatever, if we're talking about basketball, maybe a little bit easier, but like on a random Tuesday night in January, I feel like that would be a a mental strain for at least me to be jumping from like game to game and trying to manage that all.

SPEAKER_00 58:18

Yeah, I mean, I definitely prefer, it's funny. I prefer when it's like just one game going on, like just a primetime game, because it's not necessarily like jumping into a new game and getting like acquainted, but it's more like, oh, am I actually in the most profitable game right now, or like should I constantly be checking everything else? Um, that kind of bothers me more than um anything else.

SPEAKER_01 58:48

So to to to piggyback on that question, like do you see yourself or do you see your strategies as something you'd even consider automating? Is that like on your roadmap or is it just like not a good use of time to spend spend the time automating it because it's so much uh you know, white magic?

SPEAKER_00 59:11

Uh there was one market that I did have a friend uh code up, and like I I did briefly use the API for that, but I ran into like a lot of issues, just like I don't know, sometimes like I try and generate prices and they you know randomly like wouldn't pop up. I don't know, it was almost more difficult than it was worth. Um and I did have him look into same game parlays, and the only time we got filled was when um we it was a sharp taker, and uh God damn it. It was like I think it was like a playoff game where they had the wrong date on one of the props, so people were just like parlaying someone over two touchdowns. We were not trying to do same game parlays, and they essentially just filled same game parlays on us that we had prices not correlated. And so I figured like, okay, this is probably a pretty efficient market too, like based on the um kind of EV that people were getting, like, looked like it was like, I don't know, two percent or something on these parlays mostly. So it didn't seem worthwhile at that point.

SPEAKER_03 1:00:26

So one of the things I wanted to ask about was with this this manual approach, it sounds like you you have ideas basically like ideas of what the the probabilities would should be. Because I guess the one part we didn't get to was like the opinion, no opinion sort of uh dichotomy, like how you're splitting that. So when you're when you're making these, are you primarily like trying to take a side? Or are you these are spots where you think because you had mentioned like there's spots potentially where like no prices are available? And in general, you know, those if you are willing to put up prices there, that's usually a good spot. Cause like you said, it's pretty easy to create a bot that's just gonna post someone else's price all the time. Um, I I think we talked about last episode. If you could post prices when nobody has something, that you're probably gonna get action, whether it's good action or not, depends on the quality of your prices. So are you it's a long way of asking, are you trying to get like take an opinion on these spots, or are you trying to just get prices up there that are approximately accurate and capture both sides?

SPEAKER_00 1:01:25

Um, I mean, I often find myself just on one side. Like most of the time I'm not feeling heavily. It's like one side I think is off. So I am willing to have an opinion. Um, I also think if you're just trading the same type of event over and over again, you get a good sense of like in this situation, what is the fair price? Like if if you'd watched, and not that I'm an encyclopedia, but like if you've watched every basketball game ever, you can probably get a rough sense of like, all right, with 10 seconds left, down three, like this team's gonna end up winning X percent of the time. And so as you keep trading a market, like you start to realize, and maybe it's not even maybe it won't even be the fair price, but let's say the market always ends up trading like 8020. Well, I know, like, okay, let me just you know, post like 1575 to start, and then I have a good cushion. And even if I'm not really sure, like it just seems to always end up there. So you can pick up some of those patterns as well.

SPEAKER_01 1:02:31

Yeah, I was gonna ask that, like, how much of your strategy is based on like what we would call like population tendency in in poker, like rec tendency or like what the the makers do. Like, how much of your alpha do you think you derive from understanding that really well compared to how much of it is coming from like an ability to price something pretty quickly? Like just roughly even like which do you think is more important?

SPEAKER_00 1:02:59

I think it's still the ability to price, you know, reasonably accurate, but as you get experience, the the other population tendencies will help inform. Like, do I want to shade that one way, or um which side is more likely to like see all the action and I gotta be a little more careful?

SPEAKER_01 1:03:22

Right, right. You're like, okay, I know like without a doubt, I'll be able to get this side at this price. Yeah. But so like then what do I do? You know, knowing that. Yeah. Yeah, it's like it's so interesting. I love this layer that's kind of come on top of sports from PMs, like not to be a PM evangelist, but you know, it's it's a more fun game when you're like, I have a price, but I don't even know like the best way to squeeze as much money as possible out of that price. Like it's not just get price, find best price, bet. You're like, okay, I know the price, but like I could still fuck this up or make a lot more money, depending on like how I go about this.

SPEAKER_03 1:04:02

Yeah. So I want to talk maybe like move into the future, like what next steps and everything look like for you, like next what you view the next couple years looking like. But maybe before going in that direction, I wanted to maybe ask, you've been on, you said your first first trade on I think you said September 25, right? Yeah. Okay, so you it's been what is that like nine months um or so? Like how have you noticed shifts? Obviously, like well, maybe maybe one thing we didn't ask. Are you are you only on Calci? Are you on other prediction markets at this point?

SPEAKER_00 1:04:38

I'm only on Calci.

SPEAKER_03 1:04:40

And is that maybe another question? It are is basically you're all in on Calci. Are you still doing some of the the OSB stuff and anything else, or is it primarily?

SPEAKER_00 1:04:49

Uh pretty much all in on Calci. I did like have some NBA playoff stuff on some of the apps, but um it's like 99% calci.

SPEAKER_03 1:05:01

Got it. So what what have you noticed any shifts? Uh I was just trying to get context on on what you were doing and sort of like the day to day, but like have you noticed shifts or changes in the the market specific to Calci, like since you started? Has there it's obviously grown like a ton, like just in number of users, even in that short time you've been there? Um, and I think we might have actually even got like a question in this vein. So I'm not sure if we did, but yeah, like have you noticed shifts in changes in strategy? Has it evolved, or has this you know general thesis been sort of what you've been doing from the start? And maybe just more small tinkers?

SPEAKER_00 1:05:37

Yeah, I mean, there's definitely like bots that have infected like some markets that I used to do, and you know, maybe because of those, it just gets too competitive. Um but there are a lot of markets that I was kind of my first edges, let's call them, that I still will do, and that hasn't dried up, but there's definitely More competition, but I've kind of found new stuff constantly that with whatever I've lost, I think I've just gained more at this point. But like don't it's definitely scary. Like if I I'll have like I could have like an amazing week. I make like you know six figures that week, and then the next Monday I like lose a thousand dollars and I'm like, oh my time might be up. Like that happens every time I lose money. Like it's crazy.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:30

It's like will that ever stop?

SPEAKER_00 1:06:33

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:34

Yeah. Um yeah, we we did have a we had a qu question from Jay Dougie that was kind of related to that. But yeah, I mean, I think I think we're all uh in that boat. I mean, we're talking before, it's like if we knew we had a five-year runway for this, like we would be maybe you know thinking about this all differently. But I think in the back of our mind, and when we see all the news, you're just like, damn, like this could come to an end. You know, jump could get in there and just ruin everything, or or you know, it could be legislated to oblivion or you know, all of this stuff, and it's just like an existential crisis every Monday, as Clay says. Um, should we talk about? Oh, I I guess this is a question like kind of kind of touched on it with do you want to start automating anything? And you're talking about um working with a buddy to get on the API for you know a specific market and checking out the SGPs. Are you kind of a one-man operation besides maybe that bringing that buddy into contract? And if so, like do you plan on expanding uh number of people?

SPEAKER_00 1:07:52

Uh yeah, no, I am a one-man operation. I did teach my cousin like basically different strategies, and he's been betting since January. And shout out to him. I think he's up like$190,000, so he's doing quite well.

SPEAKER_03 1:08:07

Let's go. You're gonna fire you're you're you're setting yourself up to fire up a Discord again, you know, and then you're gonna be back.

SPEAKER_01 1:08:13

But now everybody's gonna expect like 200 grand every four months.

SPEAKER_00 1:08:18

Yeah. Um, I don't like if I found something that I was like, I can't handle this all myself, and I can find a way to kind of give that away and retain profit, I'd I'd do that. But it's always tricky. Like, how do I monetize this without just like you could just take this edge and run with it and cut me out? I think that's a hard thing to know.

SPEAKER_01 1:08:44

Well, I think like, did you consider just like you did with your cousin, like the like hiring traders? Like you're just you know, you could run a scaled company that isn't automated here. Like you could teach people how you trade manually, bankroll them, you know. I think that seems to me like like a good fit. Like I know people that that do that in the space and and do well and don't don't interact with the API, but have a team of of manual traders.

SPEAKER_00 1:09:15

Yeah, I I guess that would be an option, but I don't know, like are you protected in that instance from once they know exactly what they're doing? And I mean, I guess if they don't have the capital, then there's that aspect, like you're giving them the money to trade with and they they need that. Um but you know, if if I like said like, hey, you know, golden pants, like come work for me and you learn my strategies, it's like what's stopping you from then just using your own bankroll to to go print.

SPEAKER_01 1:09:45

Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't go apply myself, but I would send somebody in.

unknown 1:09:49

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 1:09:51

Exactly.

SPEAKER_01 1:09:53

But but no, I I I I know it, I know what you I know what you mean. That's always the especially when it's like you're like, oh, I mean, kind of clear what I'm doing with this one, you know. I it it's always tough to bring people into to these situations, regardless. I mean, I think if you have a more like like a less reverse engineerable process, like, yeah, it's a little less scary, but I don't know, you're always giving up some of the sauce anytime you bring people in.

SPEAKER_00 1:10:22

Yeah, and I think the the less, you know, reverse engineerable processes are pretty hard for someone to understand. Um, because it's almost like, you know, I am the secret sauce there, and that's hard to convey. It's it's more the like repeatable process that's not as complex that you can have someone else trade, but then because it's repeatable, they they don't really need you around.

SPEAKER_03 1:10:50

Yeah, it seems like you're sort of in a tough spot because it seems like there would be a high return on having like a second person, just the way we talked about it, like, or second or third person, because you can do more games, right? That's why part of the reason I asked was like are you trading one at a time? Like there's clearly seemed like there would be like a hard high ROI in that second person, but it could also take the operation to zero if it's the wrong person, right?

SPEAKER_00 1:11:14

So yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_03 1:11:18

You need to find that perfect uh you know, trust way.

SPEAKER_00 1:11:20

I mean there's people I trust, but it's hard, like it's a lot of time to learn.

SPEAKER_02 1:11:27

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:11:27

And then, you know, like my cousin had his own business, but I think he spends like eight hours a day trading on Calci now. And most people that have a regular job aren't gonna be able to devote that time until they kind of realize like, oh, this is actually gonna be very profitable.

SPEAKER_03 1:11:45

So how much time do you I was I had meant to ask this earlier, how much time like are you usually in front of the screen trading or or working or otherwise? Maybe you split that up in terms of like research if you're doing stuff like preparing and and actually then like trading.

SPEAKER_00 1:12:00

I I think it's uh gone down a lot as I realized like, okay, this might go away, but it looks like I have some runway with it. But like from September to basically the Super Bowl, I was probably trading like 14 hours a day. Like basically I got up, started trading, and then until I went to bed. Now it's like I'm kind of living my life again. And uh maybe like eight to ten hours a day, but like there's days where I maybe do like two or three hours just kind of primetime games.

SPEAKER_03 1:12:36

And that just centered around the bigot, you know, sort of whatever events are the day. So it could be like morning, night, usually usually probably night, if you know that's what American sports are.

SPEAKER_00 1:12:44

So yeah. And maybe maybe there's not many days I've done two or three hours. Like I feel like if I go out with friends or something and like I took the whole evening off, I'll come back at like 11 p.m. and then I'm up to like 5 a.m. like trying to do something. I'm like, I gotta make up for this lost time, but it's a fun life we live.

SPEAKER_01 1:13:04

Yeah. No, that I mean, yeah, yeah. I think I I think what you said there of like you kind of feel like you have a little extra time. I I think that's a tough thing to realize for all of the the reasons previously stated, but it's important, I think, to also, you know, treat this like I mean you should always treat stuff as like this specific edge might might go away, but never um never let the FOMO like or the putting a dollar amount in your time, which is hard when you're you're betting and you know your hourly like affect your life too much.

SPEAKER_00 1:13:41

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:13:42

I say that as somebody who lets it affect my life too much, but you know, I think I think we all do. Yeah. But you know, to people out there who might might get that. Uh but yeah, I mean, so if you think that this is gonna be around and you know, viable for the next couple of years, you know, what where do you you know, where do you see yourself going the next one to two years? You know, what are you leaning into? Is it sports? Are you doing any non-sports stuff that that you think is is growing, or you know, where do you see yourself spending your time?

SPEAKER_00 1:14:17

Um it's definitely sports. I would maybe venture into elections, but not like who's gonna win the election. But um I did bet and it didn't go well, but on it was like the New Jersey governor margin of victory, which is much more like once the results were coming in, it's much more like uh formulaic. You could build a model for you know, based on the vote percentages and history, like how is this gonna play out? I unfortunately, new to the space, uh made some errors and lost my one trade I did not in sports, but I think that could be an opportunity, but it's it's largely sports that I intend to do going forward.

SPEAKER_01 1:15:03

So just do more of the same better each day.

SPEAKER_00 1:15:08

Uh yeah, basically. I mean, explore new markets and probably slowly size up. I'm still I think the largest position I probably ever put on is like$25,000. So pretty small relative.

SPEAKER_01 1:15:24

That's surprising given. To your total PL, it's pretty crazy. That's hilarious.

SPEAKER_00 1:15:30

Yeah, like most of my positions are like a few thousand dollars, maybe five thousand dollars.

SPEAKER_01 1:15:35

So you must not have a lot of losing days then.

SPEAKER_00 1:15:38

Yeah, no, I'd I'd say like one in four, one in five days.

unknown 1:15:45

Wow.

SPEAKER_03 1:15:45

Is that something you've you sort of like consciously made the decision that just like for my mental health, like my sanity, I'm gonna because we talked, this was like one of the first things we talked about in the show is like the the taking high edge plays primarily is what you're interested in. Is that something you're trying to change or you're just happy with? Obviously, you're doing extremely well, you know, like how it is, but you know, the argument would be you can make more money if you take lower edges and more risk and size up and all these things. So, how do you think about that? Um, you know, like discussion?

SPEAKER_00 1:16:18

Yeah, I think I'm like slowly trying to increase, but I also think I like the leaderboard because it makes me competitive. I think if there was no leaderboard and I wasn't like, oh, I'm gonna drop down 100k today, I would go bigger. So I think in that sense it works against me. Um but it is also like a mental health thing. Like if I lose, you know, fifty thousand dollars in a day, even though like it's just kind of a drop in the bucket and not then it impacts my like it shouldn't really impact me that much, it is gonna make me almost not want to trade the next day. And so like that isn't a good uh a good thing for me, and it's gonna impact my mental health. So I think it's just like slowly getting more comfortable with bigger positions. And just very risk averse.

SPEAKER_01 1:17:11

Yeah, it's funny because I just had like a like if you were just somebody watch listening who somehow stumbled upon this as a normal person, it's like, yeah, I haven't had any big bets, like the biggest bet I've ever done like 25,000. It's like, oh wow, that's really tight. And that's like the like your family leaves you type of bet, like in the normal world. So yeah, it's just kind of it's funny the world we live in.

SPEAKER_03 1:17:34

But yeah, I mean just relative to the profit, right? Like, you know, you see a large profit number, you expect you you have an idea, and that's why it's it's fun to do these conversations. You don't know like what you know, everybody's you you see the final number, right, on the leaderboard, but you have no idea how they got there. So that's that's actually really interesting. And uh, you know, the other thing I was gonna say is you being manual. I think there's like a sense of like if you are like down in the dumps, that is worse than if you're just like clicking the button and letting the bot run. Like my bot doesn't get down in the dumps, you know. It's gonna, it's gonna run the next day, you know.

SPEAKER_00 1:18:11

That's a good point. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:18:13

Yeah, you have to get you have to, yeah. The bot loves to gamble, it'll keep going.

SPEAKER_03 1:18:18

It's it's happy to get back out there, you know. It's rain, rain, sleeter, shine. It's it's it's out there. So maybe let's uh let's pivot to the questions. I think there was a couple other we had, but I think we'll cover them in the the listener questions. So are we good to to pivot to that so we have enough time?

SPEAKER_01 1:18:33

Yeah, let's do it.

SPEAKER_03 1:18:35

Okay. We haven't had a technical error in actually quite some time. So it was it was a me technical error, it was not a clay technical error, but we're back. We are gonna get into the questions. Um, so the first question was from Calvin. Have you ever listed a 99 cent sure thing that ended up getting rules cucked and losing? And are there any markets you avoid entirely because of the ambiguous rules that you'd like to see fixed uh by Calci before you start trading them?

SPEAKER_00 1:19:01

Yeah, I think I avoid the 99 cent markets. I just don't want that feeling of uh being wrong and you know losing the whole position. I've definitely taken some one cent positions. I think it was Foster that came on your podcast and you know had some pretty wise advice on like you don't really have to be that sure at 1%. And there's definitely times in the past I've like been very upset that I didn't take a one cent position when like it clearly was good because I was just hesitating, and there's really no reason to hesitate when it's one cent uh if you have an inkling that you know something might be up there. Um I I have gotten rules cucked one time in sports, and it was I ventured into a cricket match, and cricket has like a weird rule where if it doesn't go, I literally know nothing about cricket, but I think it's like four overs is what it's called. Um, and the match, like it was a rain delay. I think it was like three overs had been completed, and if it didn't get to four by a certain time at night, the match just restarts. So the price was like and and Kalsi's rule is that it just settles at 5050. So the price was like way off the street.

SPEAKER_02 1:20:19

Sounds like Twitch.

SPEAKER_00 1:20:22

The price was way off to the sports books. I'm like filling, and I'm like, okay, I'm getting filled really fast here. Like something must be up. And then I was like, let me read the rules, figure that out, and it didn't end up costing me too much because I was able to rules cuck some other people on that before it settled. Um and then golf early on when golf first posted round leader market, um, this was me taking advantage of the rules. If you had you know someone tied for the round lead, it would just uh like the no position pays out. Um like one divided by the number of golfers is the yes, and one minus that is the no. And people I think just thought like each golfer would pay out to one. Some people would think that. So um if it was like two people were already tied for the lead, you could just put like no on them at 49 cents, and at worse it would settle at 50, and like sometimes there might be another guy that would win altogether. So I took advantage of that early on, and then I think people figured that out, and it was like fighting a queue of people to get in there at 49 or 50 cents.

SPEAKER_01 1:21:40

Yeah, I I I I definitely saw that one, that one too, and we were in there like we would always bid 49, especially. Um, but I was I kind of was like checking the comments on Call She to be like, oh, like I'm sure this is something that people are thinking, and they'd be like, you know, oh if so and so win, you know, if so and so ties, like, do I make all my money or whatever? That was like the main comment for round leader. And I was like, oh, okay, like, yeah, this is what's happening.

SPEAKER_00 1:22:14

That's funny. I probably don't read the comments enough. Like sometimes I'll do it just for like fun because they're can be highly entertaining, but I've actually never really looked at them for like, let me see what other people are thinking around a rule situation.

SPEAKER_03 1:22:30

There's great alpha in like number of comments per, you know, like like there you could do some mathematical formula where it's like spread of the market, the number of comments, like in where you want to be, because the comments is like an ultimate tell of where you want to be. You know, more comments is better. Those are that's even like lower. Um that makes the Calchi Discord seem like highbrow conversation. What's going on in the actual Calci comments section?

SPEAKER_01 1:22:57

So yeah, the Calchi comments section, you feel like you're like, damn, this is uh this is not something I've been exposed to.

SPEAKER_03 1:23:07

It reminds me well, it actually reminds me of when FanDuel DFS, way back in the day, just had a chat bar on their site. Like can imagine why that where the whole site is just chatting, and it was like you know, like the worst conversation of all time. It would just be like two minutes before lock and be like, LeBron, I just he's he's he's out. He's just got pulled out. It's just like the most toxic uh chat of all time.

SPEAKER_01 1:23:32

So yeah, yeah, that's like poker chat. There's a bovada poker was anonymous with a chat. I don't know if you ever played there, Clay. I did, yeah. Yeah, when they had the chat and it was anonymous, it was so bad. It was like so god. Um, so anyway, yeah, keep chat, make chats great again. But uh yeah, that was when you said that it was a it was a good. I mean, golf has had some like weird rules cucky type spots. Like I've cucked myself in golf, you know, cucked others. I don't know if I'm net up or down on on golf cucking. Yeah. Anyway, let's uh that's the next question.

SPEAKER_03 1:24:12

Yeah, I can go to the next one from BHC. And I don't know if you you know anybody who has has a a comment on this. So this one's a pretty specific one. Um, Yannick Center had 88 holds in the last 89 service games versus Zverev. He was serving after changeover rest. Books were showing minus 2000. Was this a bettable edge? I you know, I don't know if I've gotten classified, you know, as tennis sharp, but clearly.

SPEAKER_01 1:24:37

I was gonna say, is this a setup for example?

SPEAKER_03 1:24:39

I know nothing about that, but this is actually sort of interesting because I think this is a little bit like in your maybe not this specific problem. Like I know you you you have talked about.

SPEAKER_00 1:24:47

This is a good one. I I like this question and I like I did think about it a bit. Um like the way I would break it down is to go to like what was he to win each point. Um so like if it was minus 2000's fair, let's say, which is 95%, then he should be about 75% to win each service point. So if I was just gonna say, like, oh, I think the book's off here, I would now you have a much bigger sample. Like 90 service games is reasonable, but for something that might be 95% fair, like that's not conclusive. But if you look at all the points he's um had on serve against uh Zeberev, then and you're like, oh, he's won like 85% of those points, and 85% translates to like you know, a 98% hold percentage, then that's probably bettable. Um so like in these situations, I would kind of go down to like the smallest actionable unit and then build it up from there because it's very hard to just say like what is he to hold serve. Like that's based on you know what is he to win each service point. So let me start there.

SPEAKER_03 1:25:59

I think that's fantastic advice because the thing you did there was you increased you found a way to increase the sample, like of the like this is the problem with trends all the time, is like people will say, like, you know, you get it all the time with like the master's golf is always the example. I bring that with like you know, eight of the lads.

SPEAKER_01 1:26:18

You have to have done this last year, or else you can't run the masters.

SPEAKER_03 1:26:21

But you basically what you did there was you turned whatever 89 data points into way more than 89 data points, and so that uh you're gonna have more stability, more predictability, um, just more signal there, you know, in a way to model it. So yeah, it is it is interesting because that this type of question seems like the type of thing like you do all the time based on you know what we've talked about today.

SPEAKER_00 1:26:42

Yeah, it's it's definitely in my wheelhouse.

SPEAKER_01 1:26:45

I feel like I'd be like bad at this because I would kind of go out of the Zevra sample, I feel like, and like basically end up with the book's number and like not find any edge.

SPEAKER_03 1:26:57

Well, that's why you know domain knowledge probably matters. Like, I I I'm guessing the the answer matters to the extent like matchup stuff matters in tennis. Um, I don't think you or I, John, are probably equipped to talk about that. Do you do any tennis, Clay, or no?

SPEAKER_00 1:27:12

Um I do do some tennis, and like I used to do a bunch of tennis on underdog and prize picks. Like I had edges related to tennis, so a little familiar with it, but I'm not an expert.

SPEAKER_01 1:27:24

Got it. I'll have to ask Isaac this one. He would never better from James.

SPEAKER_03 1:27:31

Yeah, he would never take uh a minus two. He probably took the underdog. He's you know, he's well renowned as you know, underdog better. So um this one from James, and this is a question I I had earlier that that I figured we could just ask here. What do you think the long term life cycle for Calci is in regards to regulator regulatory risk, competition, demand, etc.? And maybe I can just add my part to the question too. Just like broadly, you know, there's there's news every day about Calci prediction markets and everything. So You know, that was one thing we didn't talk about in the interview, is just like how you're thinking about this industry um long term, its viability, all of all of the parts that James brought up.

SPEAKER_00 1:28:10

Yeah, I mean, I'm definitely not like reading all these court cases. I'm like broadly familiar with what's gone on. Um, but I guess my point of view is like, let me just keep maximizing. And if it gets shut down, like I'm just hoping to have made enough money that like long term I probably want to go into investing in like businesses, probably something local, and and kind of that be my next ventures. Let me try and build up a physical company and something that's maybe more rewarding than just you know printing money from other people losing money.

SPEAKER_03 1:28:50

What are the businesses you're interested in? What with what you know, I obviously maybe it's it's down the road, but do you have industries that interest you?

SPEAKER_00 1:28:57

I don't think the industry necessarily matters, just like if it's a product and working with like probably would be investing in someone's, you know, existing idea and just working with like a good person and helping them achieve success. And then also, of course, you know, selfishly trying to create profit myself. Um but I just think that would be a good challenge, and the exact business doesn't really matter as long as I'm selling like a net good product or something I believe is a good product or service.

SPEAKER_03 1:29:34

That sounds like a better next step than trading mentioned markets or whatever, whatever would be next for me.

SPEAKER_01 1:29:38

So um uh hot hot take, you know what? I love a zero-sum game. I'm gonna come out and say it. I just fucking love it.

SPEAKER_00 1:29:47

So I I mean I can't argue much with the with you there with the poker background into sports, but it's just fun, man.

SPEAKER_01 1:29:55

You're just you know the other person's out to to kill you, and you gotta get out there and take it out. Um but uh another one was I think this was the one SP you maybe referenced earlier, was Jay Dougie's question. How has your strategy changed over the past year as the order book broadly matures and and changes? You you briefly touched on maybe some of the some of the uh bots coming into markets that maybe were more manual before.

SPEAKER_03 1:30:25

But if you want to elaborate on anything that let me also just bring in there is one other one very late question from Richard, which is like related to this, just so we can answer them both. As spreads have decreased since the beginning of the year and more competition continues to enter, what are some things you've done to address that? Increase variance, adjust expectations. So I just wanted to read his question because I don't think we got that on the doc because it was fairly late.

SPEAKER_01 1:30:47

Good, good call.

SPEAKER_00 1:30:49

Yeah, and I think I did touch on it a bit. Like there's there's some markets I've kind of exited, but there's been enough new things I've found that um have made up for that. But for sure over time it's going to get a little more competitive, but that doesn't mean like you can't find really good spots.

SPEAKER_03 1:31:09

So what are some of the metrics or like what helps you decide when to stop, like get out of a market? Are you is it like you're not getting filled? Is it you start losing? It's is it something else, like you just see the order book um and it seems like you know, bots or tighter spreads, or or how are you how are you coming up with that decision?

SPEAKER_00 1:31:33

Yeah, I think if I'm in there not getting filled because I'm just never the best price, and I'm I try for a period of time, and like it's you know, like sometimes the order book might be cluttered, but like maybe people are like there could be bots, but they're leaving up a wrong price or doing something where you could take and that might be okay, or some other scenario where like the volume disappears at points and you can jump in. But if I'm just sitting there not getting filled for 20 minutes, I'm I'm out of there.

SPEAKER_01 1:32:08

Fair enough. Um Well, I I I I was also wondering like do you do you feel like the move to to Desi Sent at at certain books? Like I know you do some golf or whatnot, but has that kind of changed your your trading at all? Like in any markets where it's been enacted?

SPEAKER_00 1:32:30

The only market I saw was golf. Um and it it didn't really so I don't think it's really impacted me, but I I definitely didn't understand how people had like a hundred thousand shares with a one cent spread on golf outrights like in the masters. Like I I don't know what maybe you could enlighten me there, like what how that works.

SPEAKER_01 1:32:53

Uh I certainly didn't have that in the Masters. Uh I would post one side. Uh my my thinking was maybe somebody was blocking the penny jumping on the offer because it's still expensive to take. So like you could be bidding the no, and nobody's gonna really take the no. Um that that's my guess. Uh I don't think I think, yeah, because that's the thing. It's like even though the book is really tight, like you still can't really punish the you know, through taking um that easily because you still need it to be pretty far off market. So what I found pre-market in the masters more that was easier was like, well, first of all, everybody queued in the masters for like months, and then they were just like design, you could just penny immediately penny jump them. But but it's like yeah, I I found I could kind of get short manually um at like decent prices pretty easily, but as far as like we we did not run the bot on call street for that, like so we weren't we weren't making either side, like both sides, and certainly not being a cent wide or a tenth of a cent wide. Yeah, it's crazy.

SPEAKER_02 1:34:12

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 1:34:15

Next one from Lemba. How what is the what is the now relative importance of being able to derive your own number for sports uh on sports for prediction markets? How much of, if any, of your time is spent analyzing the order book flow, optimizing sizing, and how aggressive do you want to be depending on your number versus the market and the order flow? So I think there's a good question. And I think the other part I wanted to add to it is like one thing I didn't ask is you you're you're in the position screen. All right. Do you do are you also looking at like, because that screen you can't see the order book, at least like the way I'm thinking about it. Like, are you do you have that up on the other screen and you're like, here's what I want to post for the order book? Because that was part of like why my mind was so blown, is like I feel like I would need to see the order book if I was doing it manually. Are you looking at it at two screens and how are you sort of like answer Lembo's question, but also how are you weighing the order book um information?

SPEAKER_00 1:35:11

Yeah, so I I do have the order book up on another screen, um, for sure. Uh yeah, it's would be pretty hard without that, or you would just randomly be taking when you don't have to. Um and I so like I've always kind of like my default is like somewhere between 2,000 and 6,000 shares is usually like the size I'm posting. Um I think like if I feel having my own number or it doesn't have to be my own number, but just being very confident in the market number. There's certain sports you trade where you feel pretty good, like okay, it's pre-game money line, like you feel pretty good that that's the number versus like, oh, is this guy injured? Like maybe he's hurt. This is what the books are saying, but like do they know he's hurt? Like something like that. You like there could be a lot of variance in what the fair price could be. And so for something like that, I'm gonna downsize because I don't want someone that you know is ahead of me on a feed and knows something that like let's say it's tennis and like the player could retire at any second. Like, I don't want to be sitting there with a big order cue that's just gonna get um taken if he retires and just nibbled at if he doesn't. Um so I think like maybe 4,000 shares for me is like a good sweet spot of enough that occasionally I'll get taken like in one go and it's just like a wreck, but um not too much that like like if I was doing 12,000 shares, I don't think a rec's really ever taking like that position versus like sharp.

SPEAKER_03 1:36:59

Yeah, you want to you wanna post the maximum size a rec would take the whole thing and not a basically another share board, right? And that's uh a balancing game. I'm curious if that's you know, you you gave a range there. I'm sure it's different by market, by sport, by time of the game, you know, all sorts of different things. I think that's a big part of it, though, is like the size to show. Yep.

SPEAKER_01 1:37:24

It's a nice part about being manual. I feel like you have you're more in touch with what the right size is if you're manual.

SPEAKER_00 1:37:32

Yeah, I mean, you obviously know, you know, when the position disappears from your resting page, like, oh, I just I just got popped. Like was that good or bad? I don't know. But you'd be surprised though. I'd say like most of the time I get fully filled. It's still good. Like it's pretty rare that um I get fully filled. I'm like, oh, okay, I I messed something up there. Like usually it's I think a lot of times it's someone else making a mistake where they like were thought they were on the yes versus the no, and that's like probably a sharp person just messed up.

SPEAKER_01 1:38:06

Yeah, that's a good point. Yeah, sometimes I'll be like, oh, I definitely got courts out of there, but then it'll like go in my favor, and I'll be like, what? It's like someone just like smashed it, and then it immediately got better for me. I was like, you're like, what?

SPEAKER_00 1:38:20

I'll be on the phone with my cousin, and like that will like you know, get popped like twice in a row, and it's like the game's moving in with our favor, and we're just like, what is going on?

SPEAKER_03 1:38:33

The courtsider got bad info, you know.

SPEAKER_01 1:38:36

Yeah, you're like you just get like a no Jordan Speath, and then he just like hits one out of bounds, and you're like, Yeah, okay. Perfect.

SPEAKER_03 1:38:47

Okay, let's go to the next one from Benjamin. Once poly market fully rolls out to the US, will we see competition from Calci to lower maker and or taker fees? If so, where do you see the long-term equilibrium for fees and rebates in both the high competition and low competition cases? And I actually, as I was reading this question, I actually think you, as, and maybe that was related to the golf question you just asked GP about the one cent spread. Did you ask a question that about like the rebates and all this stuff and how this works?

SPEAKER_00 1:39:17

Yeah, I think I asked that, and uh you guys like answered that like they have a whole program, but um for people basically getting rebates on um if they agree to post enough and et cetera.

SPEAKER_03 1:39:32

Yeah, and I know poly market, like which is a reference in this question. Um, you know, GP, you could probably talk to this more if we wanted to get as other, you know, like rebates, incentives, you know, like liquidity incentives and stuff right now, too.

SPEAKER_01 1:39:45

So yeah, poly is like fully their US stuff's fully public. I don't like I know SP, you checked it out, but they have a whole page of it. Um but yeah, it's it's kind of uh it yeah, it's interesting. It's definitely uh promotional.

SPEAKER_00 1:40:01

The the poly US uh because I did see like I could finally put in limit orders on there, but it's not a desktop. It's not on desktop yet, is it?

SPEAKER_01 1:40:10

Yeah, you have to you have to go through the API. Um the worst.

SPEAKER_03 1:40:15

This is the only way you can place a uh like uh for a little bit.

SPEAKER_01 1:40:19

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 1:40:20

So you couldn't go on like a website and or the app and place like a limit order.

SPEAKER_00 1:40:24

You can do it on the on the app. You can do a limit order.

SPEAKER_03 1:40:27

A limit order. Okay.

SPEAKER_01 1:40:29

Yeah, now you can I think when we first looked at it, we couldn't.

SPEAKER_00 1:40:33

Doing stuff on the spawn is is a recipe for disaster.

SPEAKER_01 1:40:38

It's for the money, man.

SPEAKER_03 1:40:40

But I mean, that's the classic, the barrier to entry, you know, creates the edge, right? Of like, you know, so but okay, let's get back to Benjamin's question. Like, do you have any take on the fees, the direction they go? It sounds like you primarily make you said um to avoid the fees. Do you see them ever you know getting compressed, or do you think this is just sort of the way it is?

SPEAKER_00 1:41:01

I'm not sure they're gonna get compressed because I think it's the rec that better that you have to cater to. And I don't think they're that price sensitive. Like if you look at sportsbooks, it's not like the sports book that you know started offering minus 105 is winning. It's like which sports book had the best UI. And so I think that will probably carry over like which prediction market has like a great user experience. And I mean, promos is probably the other thing from sportsbooks, and that's a little weird for prediction markets because like you know, you're not betting against the house, so they can't like boost odds or do stuff like that, but I'm sure they could get creative to um appeal to their users.

SPEAKER_03 1:41:47

I think it's like the rebate type of stuff, the rake back type of stuff is like more the direction they could they could go, right?

SPEAKER_00 1:41:55

Yeah, I guess I always thought of rake back as such a you know like pro grindy thing versus like well maybe maybe not rake back, maybe like lost back, you know.

SPEAKER_01 1:42:06

Or like uh I mean I'm I'm pretty sure there's like VIP programs or like similar I I did see that, but I don't know how you is that like how do you qualify for that?

SPEAKER_03 1:42:18

You gotta prime that account, you know. You gotta prime.

SPEAKER_01 1:42:20

I don't know. Yeah, I was wondering, like I I actually bet you just it's just volume-based. Like it should. SP, we've always said this, like it you should always give like the rewards, you know, like it was like with pick six. The rewards they were just saying like the amount you lose, yes, right.

SPEAKER_03 1:42:37

Like if you're designed, if you want the ecosystem to go, you need to give the money to the losers and make them like stay in the game, right?

SPEAKER_01 1:42:44

Right. Right, right, right. Um, but anyway, I do think there's some kind of VIP thing going on. I don't know.

SPEAKER_03 1:42:54

We'll go to the next one from Mr. Fox. How much regression clawback from regulation could PMs realistically see from a change in which political party controls Congress andor the White House? Feels like a genie is out of the bottle with how mainstream Kashi Pali have become, but what actual changes are plausible? You know, you'd said your attitude is just you know, get get the money while it's good and then you know, not spend two hours discussing it every week like some people we know. Um but you know, any any takes on on this?

SPEAKER_00 1:43:25

Yeah, I mean, not no strong opinion. I mean, I think just being a more profitable company, you have more lobbying dollars, so that should help. But um you guys probably more informed than me on this one.

SPEAKER_01 1:43:40

Sadly, probably not. We just read two. Doesn't stop us. You you've you've heard what we know, we say every week. Um, but yeah, I that's that was my big one was when it was like kind of like ice, ice, you know, the exchange got involved, and some of the people who were actually backing them were serious big companies. You're like, okay, like I feel more comfortable. They have a little more pop to them right now, like you said, more lobbying dollars. I don't know. Just be optimistic, I guess.

SPEAKER_03 1:44:16

There's one other late one before we get to um peanuts question from Ian. Any advice on overcoming our personal biases, anchor bias, recency bias, revenge trading, disconnecting, and staying at peace, stuff like that. Going through my worst drawdown, and mentally it's been rough. Mind expects to lose every position with how bad the negative variance has been. Maybe you're not the best to talk about this because you just don't lose, I guess, is what we've learned.

SPEAKER_01 1:44:43

It's like what you should try is just don't lose.

SPEAKER_03 1:44:47

So maybe the advice is just stop losing. But do you have any advice for um, you know, like variants, the by uh the you know, the the biases that he mentioned and and all those, you know, like human elements that make this a challenge?

SPEAKER_00 1:45:00

Yeah, I mean, uh obviously any, you know, one's been there where it just feels like every, you know, especially in poker, like every time you have a good hand, like you're just getting beat that session. I in poker I found like it was good just to take a little time off and reset. Um in you know, sports betting, I've it's a little easier for me to overcome you know the mental strain just because I'm confident in my process, so like the best way to to start winning is to just keep betting. Um so yeah, if you have a good process, try not to revenge trade, I imagine. Just going on tilt, like you gotta try and avoid that. Like I especially in poker, there's a lot of like reasonably okay poker players that are just horrible poker players because they tilt and that's they just become awful. So I think for a lot of people, like they might be fine sports betters and then they just get unlucky, lose some bets, and then start going off the deep end. So like just stick to process if it's a winning process and you'll come out of it.

SPEAKER_03 1:46:10

Has has any of this like ever been actually challenging for you? Like like to deal with, like could maybe the answer is I've always just sort of ran pretty well because I'm I'm betting the high edge stuff. But like, has any of these these biases or heuristics ever been like more challenging you to you to deal with?

SPEAKER_00 1:46:30

Um yeah, I mean there was there's a promo DraftKings had for like the Super Bowl and maybe it was 2022 where it was like play, I think it was like a million dollars of blackjack, and you got forty thousand dollars in free bets or something like that. And I think I started with like fifty dollar hands, which like after like it's an insane number of hands you have to play. And I was running bad, and so I was like, I was I was doubling that up at some point. I started playing like$500 hands, just get it over with. Yeah, that but it was like a combination of like I could rationalize it because like all right, this is taking forever, but also I was running bad, and so it was like a little tilty that just like increased my size. Um, and I did run bad for that promo. Then I got the free bets and ran pretty bad in those two. So like that was shitty for sure. And like I don't think anyone's immune from like you know, the downsides when you're having a losing, losing period, but like yeah, you just you have to like not completely go off the deep end, but uh and try and you know control the urge to just go crazy to get your money back and just stay disciplined.

SPEAKER_03 1:47:44

It reminds me of uh Pick Six at one point was giving a lot of money away, you know, similar to to the not the same volume and stuff, but similar, like you play enough, you get enough money, you get a decent amount of money back. And I remember like I can't remember where we had to stop at like some Starbucks on the road for me to to put all this stuff in before the game starts. I and it's very manual, like you know, like blackjack, you you're doing it for a while, and then you know, like you get wiped totally on the the day, you get the the free money bag, and you're like, I did all this and wasted all this time and was in like a Starbucks in Indiana for two hours to like lose$20,000. Like, what what is the point of any of this? So I I can uh I can relate with uh that that uh blackjack story.

unknown 1:48:29

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:48:30

One thing I say to Ian, because like I think like we've all been there where we feel like it's a lose money button, like every time you click bet or click call or click whatever, it's just you you know it's just destiny, you're you're sending your money to somebody else. And like I think one thing that helps is is it's like so cliche, but sizing down a little bit because what you're trying to get over is not necessarily like getting your money back, but you're trying to reset your brain um to believe that you can win and you have a good process. So I like sizing down, seeing stuff go through the hoop, and it takes some of your emotion out if like it's a smaller size. Obviously, you know, the thing working against you is you're like, wow, I really need to get this back. Oh sweet, I've won the small bet, like I don't care, you know, fuck me, you know, blah blah blah. But I do think like sizing down and seeing stuff go through the hoop is is uh worked for me.

SPEAKER_03 1:49:34

All right, last question from Peanut. Um, this is this is our you know question that that really makes us think here. So say you're this is this is from him. Say you're five nine for the purposes of this question. And I think Clay, you you followed up to confirm you are five nine. Is that correct?

SPEAKER_00 1:49:51

Five nine on my hinge profile, real life, probably five eight.

SPEAKER_03 1:49:55

All right, well we'll we'll go with hinge clay. We'll go with we'll go. Go with the listed height of five nine. So this doesn't even have to be a thought experiment for uh for you. Say you're five nine for the purposes of the question. You can spin a wheel that has a 65% chance of increasing your height by three inches, but it has a 35% chance of decreasing it by two inches. You can spin the wheel up to three times. Do you spin it once? And uh if it goes shorter, do you spin it again? What about a third time? So basically walk, walk me through, Clay, like your your thought process, the decision branch here, whether you're spinning it at all. And if it goes, you know, up or down, are you spinning it again and and and sort of the the branch of what's happening here?

SPEAKER_00 1:50:38

Yeah, I I think it's a pretty clear you gotta spin it once because the downside of five, seven doesn't seem that bad versus the upside of six foot. At least I think it kind of depends where you are in your life, too.

SPEAKER_01 1:50:51

Like, you know, the good point.

SPEAKER_00 1:50:54

As a single gentleman, I think it could be pretty helpful to get to six feet. Um, or if I was like a kid trying to, you know, like a really good basketball player, but I'm five nine, and maybe I can make it pro if I got to six three, then I'm probably gonna spin it twice, hoping that I, you know, get lucky twice.

SPEAKER_01 1:51:16

Um that was my favorite answer on Twitter. Someone was like, I'm going Wemby or bust.

SPEAKER_00 1:51:24

I think it was Wemby or flop.

SPEAKER_01 1:51:27

Yeah, sorry. Same thing, same thing. No, it's just we'll have flop. Um but yeah, I didn't think about that. Like there is a certain point you get tall enough, like it starts making you a lot of money in sports.

SPEAKER_00 1:51:40

I mean I I'll let you I'll let you go in a second. I think if you do lose though the first spin, so now you're 5'7. I think I'm stopping there because well you could you could win twice in a row, but I think five five to me just sounds significantly worse, and getting to five ten doesn't seem as big of an upside.

SPEAKER_03 1:52:04

Yeah, I mean you you uh you are well suited to answer this question because uh you know I mean me and GP off the have been off the market, you know, off the off the dating apps for a while.

SPEAKER_01 1:52:14

But I'm also both six five.

SPEAKER_03 1:52:18

No, no, I mean I I hear that this is a uh you know like a big thing on the dating apps. Like you can literally filter by height these days, which I I it I don't know if that's true or I'm seeing things that aren't true, but I don't know like you've been off the market for a while then.

SPEAKER_00 1:52:33

Yeah, you you definitely can filter by height.

SPEAKER_03 1:52:37

Okay, so yeah, I mean I think it's you would need some like empirical data. Like ideally you would reach out to you know hinge and say like what is what what are people filtering by? You know, if there's not a big like incremental from five five to five seven, then like you just you just gotta keep rolling it and hope and hope you don't end up five three or whatever. Uh just like pray pray you don't.

SPEAKER_01 1:52:59

But well, I feel like six feet is a key number. Yeah, six feet's the big points in football, you know.

SPEAKER_03 1:53:07

Yeah, but you don't even really have to be six feet. Like, I think once you get to five ten, you could just say you're six foot honest.

SPEAKER_01 1:53:14

No, because I'm five ten and I don't think anyone would believe I'm six feet. So I don't know. But here's what I think like the risk of ruin on this is like incredibly low. I assume if you go negative height, you die or something.

SPEAKER_00 1:53:27

You can only roll three times, but you can only roll three, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:53:30

Uh you couldn't you couldn't actually go away. God damn it. Um uh five nine though, like is I I wouldn't say like someone who's five nine is like short. No, you know, no, like but if you if you bust a couple, like you're you're short.

SPEAKER_03 1:53:54

Like that's what do you what do you think, you know, like the the are on the on the dating apps, like you think most people are setting it to like six foot?

SPEAKER_00 1:54:01

Is that is that like the I I think most guys probably do an inch or two up.

SPEAKER_03 1:54:08

Um I mean like what are like a woman.

SPEAKER_00 1:54:11

Like what what do you think the women I think there's definitely a lot that you know filters six feet and up, but um I mean kind of it's fine. Like if it's a if it's a girl that's taller than me, like that's that's fine.

SPEAKER_03 1:54:24

It's like you know, a five-five woman that's you know rolling out someone at five nine, that that's the tougher pill to swallow, I'd say, where it's like, oh, I would be in that market, but uh well I'm sure we have a lot of women listeners, so why don't we just pull pull them with what what like we should be optimizing for here, you know?

SPEAKER_01 1:54:43

Like what are yes, yes. There you go.

SPEAKER_03 1:54:47

I don't know.

SPEAKER_01 1:54:48

Wait, SP, are you spinning the wheel?

SPEAKER_03 1:54:51

I think it depends a ton on your your life circumstances. Like, you know, yeah, no, I am not today, but you know, like single on the apps, you know, like I I probably am spinning the wheel. Yeah, I I probably am to me. Five seven and five nine in my head is like not really a big difference.

SPEAKER_01 1:55:07

Um but you're stopping if you lose the first one.

SPEAKER_03 1:55:12

I think five five is I agree is tough, tougher, yeah. Yeah, because like at five seven, you're you're still taller than basically, you know, probably I don't know the exact percentage, but the vast majority of women, you know. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:55:25

At 5'5, you're the average height, I think closer male or something.

SPEAKER_03 1:55:29

I'm I'm definitely rolling once. And if I'm you know, I'm I'm I'm playing with house money. Like if I roll and I hit, I'm rolling again. You know, like oh you are rolling again. That's increasing.

SPEAKER_01 1:55:38

You roll again. What? If you hit six feet, you roll again.

SPEAKER_03 1:55:44

You'd be you're so or no, no, you would be five ten. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You gain two. Oh, okay.

SPEAKER_01 1:55:50

You're saying you roll again if you lose the first one and you hit the second.

SPEAKER_03 1:55:54

If I roll and I get taller and I'm now six feet, I'm rolling again. Because the worst case scenario, I go back down to five nine and then I just roll again. Or I go, I go to five ten, and I roll again.

SPEAKER_01 1:56:04

But six feet is the key number. Yeah, that's the thing. You're like that's that's honestly fair. That's probably correct. Yeah, that's probably correct. I definitely stop at six feet. Yeah, I think roll stop at six feet if I'm like in my 20s, single. Yeah, probably. And then don't want to go below five seven, probably. Yeah, I think that's probably smart. Okay, well, the Mr. Peanut Butter question of the week has uh I guess it's a sponsor.

SPEAKER_00 1:56:32

Does he come up with these himself? Or is he like pulling? He comes off.

SPEAKER_01 1:56:36

He confirmed to us in chat it was a man, like he came up with it himself, no AI.

SPEAKER_00 1:56:41

Creative.

SPEAKER_03 1:56:42

He was very uh you know, full of transparency. He was very critical on himself of last week because you know he said it was too easy because we both work from home. It was about like driving or riding in a car. So he brought his A game, I would say, with this one.

SPEAKER_01 1:56:55

It was the game. Appreciate him for these. We've I enjoy these a lot. Um all right. Well, now we have our kind of other so now we have three kind of stalwart questions where it's like the Mr. Peanut Butter question of the week. Then we have what's a hot take that you have that most of Sharp Gambling or Prediction Market Twitter would disagree with, and then we can get to the to the Bayesian update. But do you have a you have a hot take for us?

SPEAKER_00 1:57:22

Yeah, so this is one I've heard on podcasts a lot where it's like, oh, you know, you should get stiffed a good amount. And this is from someone that doesn't, you know, have partners, but I disagree with that. I think you don't want to get stiffed almost ever. Maybe that's gonna cost you money, but like you're gonna save yourself the mental frustration of like just getting super pissed off at someone. And then the other main reason is like I'd rather give up money to not have like a scumbag make money. Like, I don't want to, you know, give money to a scammer. Like that pisses me off the most.

SPEAKER_01 1:58:01

A lot of the people that stiff you though, like go on to lose that money somewhere else. So nobody, so it's not like you have the money or they have the money, like a casino has the money.

SPEAKER_00 1:58:12

Money. I guess that's fair, but I I don't want them winning at all.

SPEAKER_01 1:58:16

Fair enough. Yeah, the mental anguish of a stiff is certainly the probably the worst part of it, especially because like it's so rare you get money back from a stiff. So you spend all this time like worrying about it or like trying to like because you don't want to, you're like, oh, should I like rip this person a new one? It's like no, I want them to pay me back, and then you have to get into this whole like dance, and if you call them out publicly, then they're not gonna pay you back. But you want you know, it is like a it becomes like a big time suck and and energy suck. I agree with that. But as somebody who has said that on podcasts, I'll I'll still say like we in the old version of betting, like I still think you had to get stiffed a little bit. Now with p prediction markets, like I definitely hope I'm not gonna get stiffed like this year, but you know, certainly in the old old version, like every year I assume I'm getting stiffed like a couple times. And yeah, bite the bullet. Fair.

SPEAKER_03 1:59:24

Okay, to the to the Bayesian update, you want I can I can give mine quick first. I had I had two jotted down. Um, one of mine was on the red blue button debate, but I think that's that's well trodden at this point. So we won't get into that. My my actual one I want to give is on hobbies. So I I've come to realize like almost all of the fun in a hobby is like in the I would say like the the first 70% of like learning or mastering the skill. Like I'm talking about like skill type hobbies, without like any of those things. And so I think to optimize like life enjoyment, you should be picking up hobbies and putting them down right when you're like basically getting to like the the stages where it's like mastery. So it's like all the fun is like learning, getting like because you know, the learning curve, you learned so much early. And then like, you know, I think of GP and his golf. Like he's out there grinding to get like so marginally better at golf. Like, there's no fun in that. He doesn't have a smile on his face while he's out there golfing. There's there's no way it's like an absolute grind. He hates himself every time he comes off the course. You know, so the optimal way is like we were talking about golf before the show, like get reasonably okay at golf, like so that you can hack it around or or whatever hobby, and then just just stop. Like, don't don't try and get any better, just accept that's what and go do some other hobby that's like optimal life enjoyment.

SPEAKER_00 2:00:52

I mean, I disagree, but because I had that happen, like I got really into pickleball, it was so much fun, and then you reach a plateau, and it's just like you're probably not gonna play the very best most times you go out there, so you're just kind of pissed off, and it's like a lot less fun, but so I I can see where you're coming from.

SPEAKER_01 2:01:16

Something about like getting those big no sorry, those small, like really hard fought gains, though. Because you just know other people aren't doing that, like so I don't know. I mean, yeah, I don't know, maybe I like the torture of it, but just just yeah, something about like pushing through that once you get to that part, feels pretty good too. Because I was thinking, like, oh, you know, I think of a friend of mine or like my cousin who's just like a great musician. I'm like, wow, like he's been playing for you know all these years, he's like really, really good. And then, you know, at a certain point, like I'm like, oh well, I'm probably that with golf. I'm not amazing, but I'm like quite good at this point. That's kind of cool to have like one thing. But I think like SP, we talk about this, it's kind of like one of our our big differences is like oh, I'm more of a you know, go hard into one thing.

SPEAKER_03 2:02:14

Yeah, yeah, no doubt, no doubt. And I, you know, I've I think I think like having I I agree with you. Like there's if there's one thing that like you you do want to be like a master of something in life. So I do understand that, like that, that part of it, right? But I think just for general like life quality, I think people could, I guess my take really is probably just people could use more hobbies and should try more things.

SPEAKER_01 2:02:37

Yeah. And you get that from betting, like you already, you know, you have something you're like mastering, right? So like you don't have to master everything, yeah. Yeah, I think I think that that's that's uh fine. My my Bayesian update is that like sugar is okay. It's not the best, it's not the worst. But I've kind of like every time I've I basically like I like sugar, but I don't like drink soda. I'll slam, you know, an occasional bag of gushers as as SP has seen, but I just had like this like hate myself relationship with sugar. Everybody says it's terrible, it's terrible. But I've just accepted that like a little bit of sugar is okay. I think like all of the people that you think are like the healthiest people in the world, and all the athletes, like I'm sure a lot of them like put maple syrup on their pancakes. And you know what? I'm I'm leaning into just like a moderate amount of sugar, some honey, you know, here and there, or like some chocolate or whatever. That's that's fine. I'm really letting loose.

SPEAKER_03 2:03:52

You you you you've upgraded from the sugar-free chocolate mousse or whatever you you you said was your like indulgement to to have.

SPEAKER_01 2:03:59

I never said sugar-free chocolate. I think I said I had a muffin. This revision is history. This is yeah, that is. I told you I had a muffin or something, like or and you were like, that's you know, stop being a little bitch.

SPEAKER_00 2:04:12

Well, Marshawn Lynch can uh you know eat a bunch of Skittles on the sideline. You you can have some gushers. That's right. Okay, that's right.

SPEAKER_03 2:04:23

All right, Clay, do you have uh an update for us?

SPEAKER_00 2:04:26

Yeah, I think my my update would be regarding uh workout classes. I was against them. Yes and now I started going and I'm pro-workout classes. I also have a personal trainer now, and I'm pro that too.

SPEAKER_02 2:04:43

Yeah, that's also good.

SPEAKER_00 2:04:44

Um like I used to just be like, oh, you just do it on your own, but it's just way more enjoyable in a class, and you're like gonna push yourself more and meet people and have more fun.

SPEAKER_01 2:04:56

What's like the oh I was gonna say, have you taken the dive into a Pilates class?

SPEAKER_00 2:05:01

I I have done Pilates classes. Um one of my good friends who is a professional better but like syndicate, very different uh sphere. His wife just opened a Pilates studio, so I think I will regularly be attending.

SPEAKER_01 2:05:19

Um good place for a single guy, too. I'll say like the ratio. I've been pushing for more men in Pilates classes, but it's I'm not gonna make a big enough impact where it won't be a great time for you as a single guy.

SPEAKER_03 2:05:34

Is that what you're primarily doing? Like I was gonna ask, what's the what's the optimal workout class if people people should get into one?

SPEAKER_00 2:05:41

Uh I've been doing hit classes, which is um, I don't know if you guys have heard of like high rocks. It's like uh similar to CrossFit, like a standardized race where you do one kilometer runs followed by some sort of station, whether it's like pushing a sled or doing burpees, something like that. So these classes kind of mimic that they're high intensity. Um but they're really good workouts. So that that's mostly what I've been doing.

SPEAKER_03 2:06:12

I'll I'll I I will just give a second update. I think having some sort of like physical goal, like a race or or anything, or the you know, even the golf like goal that you have, GP, like I think that is a way to optimize a hobby or something you're into as well, whether it's working out or otherwise, like uh you know, trying to get towards something. So I uh I would second that.

SPEAKER_01 2:06:34

So yeah, I said if the golf, it's like now I just work out because I want to be better at golf. Like I don't even have to like think about it anymore. It's just like I'm like, yeah, I need to do this to get better too. So pickleball, yeah. It could be you, you know, you could be working out to get better at pickleball club.

SPEAKER_00 2:06:52

I I think my new thing is uh tennis, you know.

SPEAKER_01 2:06:56

Okay, that's hard.

SPEAKER_00 2:06:57

I bet I bet it enough that I started to you know thinking I want to play it.

SPEAKER_01 2:07:02

People are good at tennis. No one's good at pickleball yet. That that's why I feel like that's a good spot to get in.

SPEAKER_00 2:07:09

Yeah, that's fair.

SPEAKER_01 2:07:11

Um but yeah, that was uh that's that that's the show, Clay. Thanks for thanks for coming on. We we can uh we'll post your your Twitter on the description. Um yeah, but any anything you anything anywhere you know people should find you or you know, I think the Discord's shut down. So if you're reaching out to him about the Discord, it's not coming back. Sorry, but uh yeah, yeah, I'm sure people if they want to reach you, hit you up on Twitter.

SPEAKER_00 2:07:38

Yeah, they they can hit me up on Twitter. I'm not super active, but I will read my DMs if it's not just you asking for money.

SPEAKER_01 2:07:48

Yeah, we uh we actually I feel like don't get any of those because like the people who do that like don't listen to this show. So that's kind of one of the benefits of coming on this show specifically. Um but yeah, yeah. Thanks. Thanks for coming on. We love having a first time. A first time. SP any function.

SPEAKER_03 2:08:10

Appreciate you coming coming on. We we really appreciate it. That was great.

SPEAKER_01 2:08:14

Sweet. Um, well, we'll uh we'll drop all of uh Clay's links in the description, uh, hit him up on Twitter and uh see everybody on the next episode.