Who Does AI Help in Sports Betting (PeanutBettor Guest Host) | Ep 158

This week SP is AFK so we get Mr. PeanutBettor to sub in as a guest host. We cover who we think will be most helped by AI along with a lot of news and great questions. Clearly SP holds the show together because this went off the rails and became the longest episode yet.

00:00 AI in Sports Betting
40:30 News
1:13:30 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:00

It basically is going to make the best players in the space, like it's going to make them so much more valuable than it would like before. If somebody was, you know, 3X vers someone, now I think that the best guy is going to be that's going to make him 30X because he can just do more things.

SPEAKER_00 0:34

GP. We almost took a week off because SP is on the IR. He'll be back next week. Um he'll be with a bang, and he's looking forward to getting back. But you know, in the last hour we got saved, and we have now contacted professional podcast, I would say host for hire, previous guest. You want to be called Peanut. People know you as Mike or Mr. Peanut Better. Nobody knows you as Peanut, but uh welcome, welcome back, I guess, to the show in a different role.

SPEAKER_02 1:10

Yeah, I've already gotten shit on this show once for trying to change my name. Um, like full, you know, full transparency here. I would eventually like to get out of the name Peanut Better altogether, but it just doesn't seem like it's in the cards. People already like yelled at me enough for this. So I like I think I'm just stuck with it. As someone who knows you is stuck with golden pants, I feel like at least you kind of know the pain.

SPEAKER_00 1:35

Yeah, that was because I messaged you that and you're like, Do you know how hard it is to be known as Peanut Better?

SPEAKER_02 1:40

I'm like, Listen, in my like the household I grew up in, my brother saw my Twitter name as Peanut Better and has just, I mean, relentlessly picked on me, insulted me this entire time. So yeah, he's kind of in my head. I'm trying to get out of it. Um, but it just it looks like I'm stuck with this name forever now.

SPEAKER_00 1:58

Yeah. And that was to to foreshadow a question. I would flup asked the question of like, what is my take? I disagree with you on. I'm not gonna use that one because that one's an obvious one, but yeah, the the name change to just peanut was was popular.

SPEAKER_02 2:14

As long as I get the mister out of there, I think it's like it's a mister. I the mister makes it seem so lame. So I that's the part I'm trying to cut out the hardest.

SPEAKER_00 2:25

Okay, okay. Well, we'll we'll workshop it. Um, but yeah, so we're we're filling uh you're filling in for SP. Big shoes to fill. Um, and we're gonna go through the standard format. But you DM'd me a question maybe two weeks back that SP and I were like trying to fit in as a main topic, and I thought like this is a perfect time to do it. And basically the question, you can elaborate on it, but the question was something along the lines of like who is AI, what type of better is the current do the current like AI tools help the most, if I if I remember it correctly. But yeah, if you want to elaborate on on the queue.

SPEAKER_02 3:07

Sure, yeah. So basically, I don't want to do everybody has done some version of you know, like what AI is going to change about betting markets in a sense of like, you know, what effect is it gonna have on models and things like that. I think that that's pretty like talked about or at least gone over in detail. What I kind of wanted to ask was now, like, now markets are going to become more efficient. I think anybody we can take at least you could be a relatively AI skeptic. I if you have a reasonable opinion of what AI is, it is at the minimum allowing people to build software in a way that they haven't been able to build it before. And basically been everybody's been able to ramp up the production of what they can do, kind of, you know, maybe you aren't changing your entire operations in terms of capabilities, but the like, you know, the breadth of topics that you can cover is so much wider. So before, like the example I used was before, if I I just wouldn't have been able to bet certain markets that now I'm able to whip together something. I'm able to tell Claude, hey, Claude, you know, take our MBA sim and make a dumbed-down version of it for WMBA and kind of go ahead and like create that out. Um, I'm talking, you know, it doesn't matter which markets I'm talking about, but in general, let's just assume, I think a pretty like reasonable assumption, that markets are going to be way more efficient and are going to be the markets that were before not worth your time if you were a very sharp person, are now kind of going to be worth your time and maybe a lesser extent. So you can like go in and bet a market that you otherwise just didn't have time to do. Now you're able to go in, kind of put together a hack version and kind of create something there. So, like, how does that affect those markets long term? And how would you adjust your betting based on that?

SPEAKER_00 5:01

Yeah, I think I think it's an interesting question because and I don't want I don't want to steal your your answer, but I think we briefly taught like talked about in DMs, like the idea of it helping like the best, like single betters. Um and then I was thinking, well, is there any like is it all doom and gloom for people who are you know on the more like kind of coming up in the space and haven't really like got uh haven't really started winning at at a high rate um or winning a lot of money and being a professional and whatever? And it kind of helps them like in a in an exactly opposite way of like getting that first model if they have like really good expertise of of the sport and have like a realistically like a realistic understanding of probabilistic thinking and and all of this type of stuff, like it might get them like the exact opposite effect, which is like they can finally do one thing really well. And then like the best betters, they can start to now expand to a lot of things. Uh so I kind of felt like you you put into two camps and like they it's kind of impacts them exactly the opposite.

SPEAKER_02 6:17

Yeah, that's like kind of exactly what I was going with, where it's if you are, you know, let's say you are a very skilled NBA better right now, never has it been easier for you to change your like I think if you are one of the best NBA betters, the A, you know, Claude in its current circumstance is not as much making your models better as it is allowing you to branch out and cover more areas than you ever have before. Um, and like I was thinking of it, say if you were a baseball better, okay, and you are betting uh, you know, betting baseball regularly, whatever you had before as your metric for say a new guy's coming up from the minor leagues. Maybe before you're like, hey, let's put together something for pitchers who are making their first start, but we don't want to spend a ton of time on it. Now you can kind of go into that area and attack that more kind of broadly, way in a way that you couldn't before. Like it would take so much effort and time to go and look up and scrape all his stats. Now you can like in three seconds be like, hey, let's put together like the most basic version of our model for these new guys. So I think like if you're already at the top of your sport, or not even at the top, if you are a good better in your sport, it's going to allow you to spread out um and provide like you know different markets than you were able to. What you said about a new better is I also think like if you're starting out, you should probably lean into specialization more than ever now, right? With markets becoming more efficient. And if you are going to be somebody who say you're I'm gonna butt in WMBA now and like I'm starting in that market, now you kind of because other people are gonna be in it, you have to specialize more than ever because the top guys are gonna be covering a breadth of topics. You have to really to in order to beat them, you kind of have to hone in on your one skill set.

SPEAKER_00 8:15

Yeah, yeah. Exactly, exactly. And what I was thinking also is if like you have to think of it in terms of prediction markets too. Like the more the flip side is you can use it to automate some of your betting strategies, um, if you're already at the top. Uh so there's like lots of different, there's like a couple different paths. You could either do a better job at originating uh a bunch of different spots. And I think that concept of like, when I was thinking, oh, basketball, it's like, okay, I I do mains and now I'm gonna do player props. But I think what you said for baseball makes a lot of sense, where it's like if you have a pitcher pitching his first start, a lot of times you might just like kind of toss a towel in that game and not quote it or not bet it. But if you now you can actually probably find that as like a huge spot because you can spend a lot of time on like judging how good a pitcher pitching his first start in the majors like could be, or what's the distribution of you know stuff that could happen with a pitcher on their first start. And there's probably a lot of edge there, but you just it wasn't worth it because there's only like I don't know, ball, I don't know, ball, but however many pitchers pitching their first start of the year, it can't be that many.

SPEAKER_02 9:31

Um yeah, similarly, so like I one example is like so I bet NBA props, and when I first started, I would pretty much look exclusively for unique situations where I would be like, okay, why would the numbers be off? You know, can I deep dive this and use my own assumptions and go in there? And as like my bottle gets better, it's like it's the ultimate like humans go to the laziest thing. It's like, oh, now I have these numbers. I don't need to look into those. And like that becomes, and it's kind of like this system where the new person then can go and be like, oh, there's alpha here that like Mike's too lazy to go and generate. But now like it seems like you're able to kind of you're able to automate. Uh one thing that you were always on was like, hey, you should automate as many things as you can because then that allows you, like it frees up your time. Like, this is like that times a hundred, right? It's like you can automate things that before you could only automate rigid things. Now you can automate stuff that's more flexible and like has more kind of areas of change. So like I think that will allow people that will allow the best groups to kind of go in the like the areas where they before were just screw it, like it's not worth our time to mess with it. Um, but at the same time, if you're new in there, it also allows you to quickly generate like you can generate, like I couldn't code worth of shit. Like, there's no way I could create what I created uh without Claude or kind of in that realm. So it allows you to kind of go in there. So I think for the, you know, if you're already established, like I said, you'll be able to attack new markets. If you're newer, it almost needs to make you specialize in a way before there was tons of friction where you could kind of find lots of spots. Now I think that like because that friction is being eliminated, you kind of have to scale back what you're attacking now and really, really kind of hone in um because it just won't be as easy, everything's gonna be more efficient.

SPEAKER_00 11:26

My my uh so I also thought about this in like the really macro sense of like who does who does this help, like what players. And I think it hurts the biggest trading firms. Like if if I was Susquehanna or Jump or Jane Street and I had a choice, if I thought, would I make more money in prediction markets with Claude and whatever or without it, I would think without it. Um because the thing, like uh to to steal a quote from my partner Luke, he was like the best the best trades these trading firms make is they pay, you know, 250k to the smartest kids in college who are gonna make five million dollars for them. And like they have the bank roles to basically just not need Claude because they have like 50 Claude juniors on the desk, like doing all the work. And like that was gave them like a work capacity that was previously like not even remotely reachable by people like us, you know, like our groups or you know, sophisticated solo operators or whatnot. So I I think that it opens the door for you know the garage band market maker or the you know the lone wolf, you know, SP type who's really sophisticated and you know can actually compete um by themselves. So I would say like I'm optimistic about AI. I know there's a lot of like doom and gloom on AI, like, and that goes beyond the scope of betting, but I'd say like in betting, if you're listening to this podcast, it's probably a good thing relative to the field for you.

SPEAKER_02 13:17

I would agree. I you could probably make the argument either side without me pushing, like I think there's arguments for both sides. The argument for if you're like SIG and you know one of those trading firms is listen, everything's gonna be so optimized that you're gonna have to live on the margins here. There's gonna be no more roars, or you know, the roars are gonna be far and few in between. You're gonna be grinding order book flow and things like that, where they are, you know, they're better set up to take advantage of those kind of like little mismanagements. It's not like SIG's not like relying on ball knowledge, they're relying on order book matching and kind of taking a dollar here, making a dollar one on one there. For the most part, I'm you know, I'm speaking generalizations, but um the other side is to your point, if everybody one of their advantages before would be the ability to scale at a rate that nobody else can do. If you're one person, you can't create a million models, but now you can. So now that you can scale at the same of them, it really comes down to more expertise, um, you know, domain expertise, uh, whether really just it's more mono-imono than it was before, where it's like, hey, you know, I'm just gonna get overwhelmed by a group who's doing things more efficiently, more strategically than I am now. The argument would be, hey, now that I it's basically your ideas, there's no more limiting factor of can you code this correctly or can you create? I mean, I'm speaking a little bit far out here. There still are some of that, like, don't get me wrong, but I'm just saying if you're speaking in a couple years here, it's going to be can you create systems in place and can you think of these things that basically to have it be generated for you because everything's going to be you know generated relatively quickly uh and relatively well by sub agents and all these things. So I would agree with you now that it basically is going to make the best players in the space, like it's going to make them so much more valuable than it would like before, if somebody was, you know, 3X versus someone, now I think that the best guy is going to be that's going to make him 30X because he can just do more things. Essentially, you're going to be able to multiply his domain expertise or his knowledge in a way that you couldn't before, where it's like, hey, you know, if I'm typing boilerplate code for five hours and somebody else is typing boilerplate code for five hours, there's not that much marginal difference. Now, if it's like real high-level decisions that you're making all the time, it's going to basically compound that difference. So yeah, I would say that basically it has never been better if you are like a solo operator and very skilled.

SPEAKER_00 15:53

Yeah, that's a good point. Like it narrows, like it compresses the time that's spent on the stuff that like everybody can do with time, which is like, let's say you're like setting up your database. Not everybody can do this, but like this is, you know, if you and I had like to go pull a college football database and then like tag certain plays a certain way and like go through this this process, like we would be able to both do it. But what you can do that I can't do is to like understand what this means and to ask it the right questions, right? So like all of a sudden, like the time spent do where you and I are doing the thing that we both can do in that um in that example is basically compressed to zero. And now we're competing on the other thing for the majority of time, which you're killing me in.

SPEAKER_02 16:47

Yeah. So like a great example was last year. I like, and it first of all, it's it's amazing how quick this stuff is like changing. And like to the people who are AI skeptics, last year I asked it to basically go through, and every offensive coordinator, I was like, hey, go and find what their previous stops were. With college football, it's a little different because like the data's not very clean. You're like scraping from weird places. There's not like one data source that has this stuff, right? So I asked it to do it, and it basically like it just came back a ton of error. So I spent time just going through and being like, okay, that's wrong. Like he actually went to this college. Like that was just hours spent cleaning data. If I asked it to do it this year, like it might hallucinate one or two things, but it's like getting it 98% correct. That's just time now that everybody is gonna have off their plate, and it's really gonna come down to like actual decisions of who's better, like all the stuff that when people ask me, like, what part about sports spending is probably underrated, it's like how much of my time is spent putting out fires, where it's like, oh shit, I put the wrong thing here, or I'm just trying to get this up and operational. That to me is going to like trend towards less and less, and it already is, honestly, like less time am I spent just maintaining the same stuff. And now I'm actually able to add things in and add different stuff like to the equation. And as you are able to add stuff, the person who's not like there is gonna necessarily be a ceiling on someone who's like, okay, this is like I've thought of everything that I wanted to put into my model, and then there's gonna be someone who has 5,000 more things that they're like, you know, that you can there's always something that you can add to your model if you're pretty good at this. Um, but there's eventually gonna be a difference there where someone is not adding as much or whatever they're adding, like just because now so much of the time was spent just putting out fires, if that's gone, all that extra time is kind of area to separate or stratify yourself from the group.

SPEAKER_00 18:45

Right, exactly. And then people you can spend it on the two things, which is like getting your fare better or getting your trading better. And those are gonna be the things that eventually, like, I think start to separate people very um, but yeah, start to really separate people in the space. I had a funny, it's it's funny, like you talk about how different it is a year ago. Like a year ago, like it was it's just it's not even comparable to what AI is today or the tools are today. Like I I I was doing, I was creating like I was basically trying to create a live model for something. Um and I knew that I couldn't, you know, I'm a hashtag, you know, sim believer, but I can't sim it how I would want to SIM it because it would, you know, it wouldn't work live. So it was like, no problem, I'll make a Markov chain. So I go through and like I I you know go through the process, like kind of tell it like this is what you need to look out for, like what are you what parameters are you using, like, and we kind of go back and forth, but the underlying structure, like the the guts of the the model I am trusting to to uh to Claude, and I start to run it while I'm watching like the the data come in. I'm like, it's good. And then I tell I tell Gabriel, I was like, yeah, so anyway, like today I spent a lot of time with Claude. It built like a Markov chain. I'm testing it on live games now, and like after that, I'm gonna have it explained to me what a Markov chain is. It's just like, but you know, and but that's the thing. It's just like I'm sure that and I understand it's it's it's math.

SPEAKER_02 20:28

I I kind of like yeah, you understand the general theory of it, but you don't like the now you basically have to understand what things do, where they're good at, rather than the actual implementation. It's like going back to like old school math, uh too bad SP's not here to talk about you know theoretical, like when you talk about series and stuff. It's like, oh, I kind of understand what series are, but like the actual like summing of them and taking it to E and stuff like that. It's like, okay, that's where I'm kind of lost. Now you just kind of have to know what the series is and it will take it from there. Um there's uh let me ask you, so like how are you having it help you as far as like execution of trading? Because I would say that's somewhere where I just like I'm not very good at executing trading, I would say, right now. Um and basically that's like where I would say my biggest area of growth could be.

SPEAKER_00 21:21

Uh well, I think you touched on one one part of it, which is just like scraping help. So there's a lot of like there's a lot of stuff that goes into, I would say like our live trading that's scraped. But uh I the other thing for execution of trading is like understanding the uh exchange APIs. I think it's uh if you were just plopped in the middle of it with no AI, I think a lot of you know the thing is the exchanges are so new, all of us have had AI to help. But if you were like plopped in the middle of it and asked to quote RFQs without any AI, I think it would be fair. Very, very, very difficult. So understanding like uh how Call She's API works, how Polly's API works, and then because it can go online, it can read these docs. Like it's that's that's one of the things that AI is so good at. It's just like taking a like a ton of documentation and you ask it questions about it, or like this is what I'm trying to do, what are some options? Can I do this faster?

SPEAKER_02 22:26

Like to to me, that's the the biggest help with the the stuff you couldn't like Google or query before that's like specific to things is where it's absolutely like perfect, where you're saying where it's like, okay, like this very specific thing, how do you like look at the already existing documentation? Tell me how to do it. Yeah, I I like all the APIs, stuff like that. Do you let me do you think if there wasn't AI, like, do you think it's a coincidence, I guess, that all this API trading is happening at the same time AI is coming up? Do you think everybody would be able to market make at this level? Like, would we be able to get all these market makers? Sure, we'd get SIG and stuff like that, but like, you know, could you even get up and running without the help of AI to the extent that you have with all these different platforms?

SPEAKER_00 23:15

Uh that's yeah, I I would say no. And that that's to my point of of why I think like SIG and jump, if they had the option, like I guess I don't know. Well as long as it's like remove any effects outside of prediction market trading, they would probably want no AI because they would be the ones who are actually able to get something to work quickly. Um, you know, my partner Gabriel does does come from like a programmatic trading background, so I think we would have gotten up eventually, but it would have been so much slower. Um, I don't think there's any way we would have been up on multiple platforms uh at this point. And yeah, I mean, I I think that's exactly why you see people. I mean, if you think about people we've had on the pod, Exy, Troy Cuban, um, all the people who have come on and talked about being like fully automated, are always talking about what they tell Claude. Like myself included. Like, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 24:25

Let me ask you, Ben, do you if you could get rid of AI in the space and everybody's competing with a no AAI like lifestyle? We're going back, you know, five years ago, two years no AI. Would you take everybody, would you take it away from everybody?

SPEAKER_00 24:43

Uh I feel like Gabriel would kill me if I tried to. Because he'd be like, well, now you do so much more work. But uh I'd like to.

SPEAKER_02 24:53

But you're gonna scale where it probably like making it more work probably helped. Like, think of you're talking about like the people the kids who like came on. You could scale in a way they can't, right? It's like you have an advantage of a team with you. I think if you have a team, and I'm I would say yes for us, just because our team has been started in the past year or so. Um, I would say if I were you guys and you guys already had a process like before AI, I feel like the answer has to be no. I feel like if you could take it out, you probably should.

SPEAKER_00 25:25

I feel like we're probably on the edge. Like I think it's obvious for the people like we're it's obvious for the people above us, I think that they should take they should say no. I think it's obvious for the people who are doing less volume that it's a yes. I would say you know what I would say, I would I would say I want it because I think like one thing our team our team has is we're not a big team, we're a five-person team. And um I think what everybody on the team brings is like a lot of critical, interesting thinking, and it lets us all be spend a lot of time on stuff that's a little more creative and less time consuming without having to expand the team. Because if you think about other people's teams or like you know, jump sig, I mean, these are teams that start to run to the you know dozens to hundreds of people. So I still think we're in that in that camp of like we want it.

SPEAKER_02 26:27

Yeah, and I think it it's almost it's so hard to like separate out what is AI driven, which were versus what is like exchange driven, right? It's could because if it was just the old school, you know, maybe the answer for you would be like don't ever get out of the sportsbook space. Like, how much is this helping them like profit? You know what I mean? So it's like one of those situations where it's hypothetical that is so hard to kind of imagine it, like the macro effects that it's had. And maybe, you know, if AI doesn't exist, do the exchanges get started to this extent? Like, how much is Calci been helped by the growth of it? It's one of those weird questions.

SPEAKER_00 27:03

A lot, yeah. You know, it's right. Think about all the people that are now trading pro programmatically, who would never, like you said, who would never have traded programmatically before. It's gotta be like 20x the accounts that would have if it wasn't AI.

SPEAKER_02 27:20

Or they would have put together the shittiest, hackiest, like not even like I'm not saying they are shitty or haggy, but it's like they just there's no way you could get the scale that you could now. It's like now that like the marketplace would be dominated by SIG in a way that it isn't now, uh, the more like as we're talking this out, the more I think it's gotta, it's like it's just terrible for SIG. Like discussion. I'm like, yeah, you're right. It would have been it's is given way more power. It's really like a democratizing tool more than I kind of originally thought it would be.

SPEAKER_00 27:54

It's kind of like if I'll I'll talk to Rufus and we just think, man, if we could just shut down data golf, you know, like, you know, uh it's like that's probably what they think. Man, if if we could just actually force these idiots to have to learn how to code, we would crush them.

SPEAKER_02 28:15

Exactly. If we could stop these dipshits from creating Python scripts like by just asking, come on, Claude, please connect to the web socket.

SPEAKER_00 28:23

Please, please. Please. Um, yeah, I was gonna say, like, what are what are some things that that you found it especially useful for in your in your betting or your I guess in your growth the last year since you you've you know built a team and are scaling.

SPEAKER_02 28:42

Sure. I I would say that like number one, there's a joke that somebody's like, you don't actually like claude, you just like dashboards, which I do kind of feel that I I actually love my little dashboards too. Every single time I'm like, hey, why don't we just go ahead and throw something up on railway, like create a dashboard for me? Um I would say it's been instrumental in so obviously I come from you know blue collar, you know, hard-earned Excel background. So everything was in Excel before uh I added my latest partner.

SPEAKER_00 29:15

Um I thought you were R, no. What weren't you in R?

SPEAKER_02 29:20

Yeah, so I was in Excel, I added R in, and then when my partner came in, I was like, hey, like let's move everything over. Everything in R, like we create I created was so hacky that like I would basically do some stuff in R and bring it back to Excel. Um but like I was running stuff in R, yeah, but it was just it was so unreliable in the sense that like I would have to then try to bring it back to Excel or kind of get my final version in Excel. I would have it sped out in a CSV that I would then upload to a Excel sheet. So like basically everything we've created has been like it's been so huge for us because everything we created is like almost from scratch in the past couple years. So um in the past two years, we've created so many more things that just would be raw manpower of you know, generating otherwise. So it's been huge in the ability of just create something quick, um, and you know, we'll refine it from there. But basically, like take an existing idea that I had that was done poorly, and take that idea and just create a version of it. Um, and that's basically where we're at right now.

SPEAKER_00 30:30

Yeah. So are you now migrating to Python?

SPEAKER_02 30:35

Yeah, I would say everything that we have, I I think is pretty much exclusively in Python. Um and it's almost everything now is generating on some version of a dashboard that we like kind of have that's adjustable and can resim. But like we were for a while, I was operating like out of cursor and doing things, and now it's pretty much exclusively in clawed code and like the outcomes in the terminal, yeah. It's just like yeah, it it now is we're able to generate it in a way that's so much more of a user-friendly output. And I'm you know, basically my partner is full time just like me being like, hey, can you fix this and make this as easy as possible for me? So I've almost kind of regressed in that sense that now I'm like, I don't even have to get into the nitty-gritty. I'm like, hey, like make this come out nice for me so I can like look at it um exclusively. So yeah, I it's been so big on just if you the nice part of having everything, even if it's shitty in Excel, was I had the like framework of what I wanted. And then you're just able to be like, okay, like create this, but make it not shitty. So um I always kind of over, I always generated like basically the like a wide imagination of like what this could eventually scale into, even if it wasn't doing all those like intricacies right now. It was like, okay, this is what I want this value to eventually be right now. Let's just put in my shitty guess of the number and then we'll go from there. Um, so that's been super helpful. Also, like kind of having it hone in on what those numbers are. So, like before it was like, you know, I let's make this regress 80%. Why 80%? Because that seems reasonable to me. Like it was like so much, there's so many variables that I just relied on, like, I don't know, this seems kind of right. And now you're able to be like, you know, Claude, please tell me what this variable should be, no mistakes. And it kind of does it. Like, it might not be perfect, but it will honestly get you pretty close on like as long as you have the specific thing that you want it to generate.

SPEAKER_00 32:42

Right. No, I so I was I was also a blue-collar Excel worker for a while, and right before the AI boom, I was like, I'm gonna learn Python because it's just too late. Like, I had so many macros in my I had the golf, we had the golf model in an Excel. Like thing, it just crashed all the time. Macros just like out, like, and I was like, okay, part of my first Python project was make just literally taking that and putting it into Python, and it took forever, forever. And now I'm sure if I could go find like that old Excel sheet, I could give it to Claude and it would do it in 30 seconds, and then you would obviously refine it. Like, like, and that's the other thing. Like, one of the things that really matters now with Claude is like checking Claude, like making sure things make sense. Like, that's where a lot of I think the skill is now. Um, is understanding like where you know, Claude loves to still sweep things under the rug, in my opinion. Like, well, yeah, it's so lazy.

SPEAKER_02 33:50

It like just wants to be like it wants to, oh, I made this shortcut, and you're like, no, no, you can't take the shortcut. Like, it's that's the most human thing about it, is that it tries to find the fucking easiest way out of every problem ever. It's like, oh, this is crashing, I just got rid of it.

SPEAKER_00 34:04

It's like nobody and then it tells you it's like, it's like, yeah, like the thing is, yeah, this will work, but like it won't work on like back nine on Sunday, but that's only a small part of the tournament, so it's not a big deal. It's like, first of all, don't fucking tell me what's a big deal in robot.

SPEAKER_02 34:22

I'm not gonna ask tell me. I know it's like one. I was like, I'm not gonna, it was like, don't worry about like some effect, it's not that impactful. I was like, but listen, I'll fucking decide what's impactful. You just like you just go ahead and put it in the thing. But yeah, no, that's the number one. That is, I thought, a nice part of building these before AI, is you kind of have a bullshit detector of hey, that's not right. Like, you know, you can kind of see it, I think, easier. And maybe that's all just cope because I spent so much time building the like the longest.

SPEAKER_00 34:55

You have to cope it.

SPEAKER_02 34:56

Yeah, my XL, like you said, I had a thing where like I would do these CFB sims and I would do it, and I'd literally have to do it overnight or it wouldn't finish. Yeah. So I would run a macro and it would just run overnight, and then obviously something broke halfway through the night, and I'd be like, absolutely. It's or I put one setting wrong and I'd be like, oh my god, I put up the like I put one point D multiplier on here. The every single game is off.

SPEAKER_00 35:21

Yeah, you're like you re-sim the thing you sim the night before by accident.

SPEAKER_02 35:25

Yep.

SPEAKER_00 35:25

I've done that, and you're like, oh my god. You're like, why is everything this oh no?

SPEAKER_02 35:31

You're like, oh my, I can't believe like I ran this here. So you'd ruin the whole day. And I will say, like, so I still do some of my NBA prop stuff in Excel because it's so like adjustable on the fly and I like a lot of manual assumptions. The I have given a couple tasks to the like the Claude XL, and it is so fucking good. It's infuriating. It's like I can't believe oh my god. I was like, hey, clean up this. I never tried it. I was like, clean up this thing and like make sure, and it like put it up into a tab, lined it up. It was like, you actually said to do this, but I corrected you, and it was like 100% right. It should have corrected me. I was like, oh, that's really like humiliating to have it. Tell me, it's so good on that level too. It's just it's crazy how having giving it the context of your data has been like the real unlock.

SPEAKER_00 36:21

Yeah, yeah, exactly. I think that's good. I think it's good news for those of us who have done this before because you can't the one thing you you definitely can't do is like Claude, build me. I like you see this joke, but it's like Claude, build build me a MBA model that beats sides at the close, make no more mistakes or whatever. But like there's people out there that have never built anything that wins in sports betting or like understand it, and that will be doing like less um obvious versions of that and be like very wrong.

SPEAKER_02 36:53

Yeah, I the what I found now, it's like it's funny that as you try to make all these things easier. What I found is like actually I have to write these book long prompts where I'm explaining every single little detail. It's like, oh my god, at this point, like, but it's still faster, obviously. Um I do think there is gonna be an interesting kind of stratification when it's someone who has grown up in the like they never even had the coding skills or like the background to begin with, where they're going to be able to like right now, we are using AIs to ex to adapt our existing paraphras. When you start to build it from just pure AI, like where you don't even you don't have the old paradigm kind of is like the format. If I I'm not explaining this great, uh one example is so we were trying to build something that like generates combinations, um, basically, and like my my partner is in a coding background was like, Okay, I'll like use this app and like have it create it through Python. And like my dumbass, who doesn't know any better, was like, Claude, make sure that you do it, like because like and he was limited by basically the old apps and the like the way that he was kind of framing it, where not having those kind of old background in like Python or anything in Apple Fi or whatever, I was just like, hey, like you figure it out, and it kind of came up with a new way. So I do wonder if there's like problems that we have solved using old methods of standard computing that actually like we shouldn't be like you should have more of an outcome-based product for Claude asking it and then let it generate how it's gonna get to the answer, um, especially as we get smarter and smarter here. I wonder if like we are kind of limiting it almost based on like the old paradigm.

SPEAKER_00 38:44

Yeah, it's like you can still sense check its outputs and stuff.

SPEAKER_02 38:48

So there's no but like use a Markov chain or whatever. What if you just told it, hey, you come up with the best way to solve this problem? Like there's you know, there's obviously positives and negatives to it.

SPEAKER_00 39:00

It's like right, you know, right. It's like you just sim it. Yeah, it's like it won't be a pie like a dot pie file that lives on my computer. That's you you you do it.

SPEAKER_02 39:10

Yeah, there is like something where there is gonna be like a realm where we are generating things based on Python codes that it doesn't need to generate, right? It's like yeah, it actually is gonna be like, hey, I figured out that the best way to do this is to send it not through XG Boost, but to send it through whatever other thing because I know every single different you know machine learning type and you don't. So there are gonna be like a group of people that do that. The problem is like, you know, without how much expertise do you get by building it yourself? I that's the question, I guess.

SPEAKER_00 39:47

Yeah, I always feel like interpretability is like underrated by people, but you know, we'll see how long that that lasts.

SPEAKER_02 39:57

Yeah, yeah. I don't know how much of that is me not having the more advanced system, so I'm like, oh yeah, yeah, I you need to interpret it because otherwise I would be a dumbass.

SPEAKER_00 40:08

Yeah, yeah. Most of my opinions are just protecting my ego. Um well, I think that was I think it's a good time to hit the news. Uh that was a good, I think like open AI anthropic will probably refer to this as one of the top AI conversations of 2026. All right, we're gonna we're gonna hit the news. Um first we gotta do the topic that will not die. We got Matt Calish is still going. Um I think we've talked about it, you've talked about it. Um, this is week three, I think. The funniest tweet about it I saw was that one where it's like I this was like a week ago, but it's like, imagine you were like jaywalking, got hit by like two weeks ago, got hit by a bus, woke up from your coma, and this was still going on, and it was the screenshot of like him being pissed about his Brooks Kapka vet.

SPEAKER_02 41:03

Um we gotta admit, right? Like the Brooks Kapka thing was obviously just a total like fake. That is not the reason he there's no way that has caused this rant to go on at this level. There's it's just a total, like he, you know, I'm trying to think of the moment where it was like set up, it was totally an op to create this situation where he could complain about slippage and then get into his calci beefs. There's no way that he just happened to get mad about this Brooks Kepka thing, and now that has just led him like down this path.

SPEAKER_00 41:37

I have a I have a question. Do you think Brooks Kepka knows about this?

SPEAKER_02 41:42

Oh, that is a good question. I think no. Yeah, I lean no, but it isn't a big enough part of the story to know about this.

SPEAKER_00 41:53

Yeah, that that's a thing. If if it it kept being if it kept being Brooks Kepka, it was only that for like the first day, like you said, and then it just turned into like this obviously campaign against call for so yeah, yeah. I think that that's a good point. But I always think it's funny if like when in gambling Twitter, like a certain athlete is just somehow dragged into like this shit show of a conversation. Like, does it get back to that athlete? And are they like, Who are these fucking trolls?

SPEAKER_02 42:23

Like, do you think Tiger Woods knew everybody was hammering him, even like after does he know that like every dipshit is betting him on Calci and people have to bet? Does Scotty Shuffler know that you are on Scotty Shuffler know every single Calci tournament?

SPEAKER_00 42:37

I hope not because he know that yeah, yeah, he's getting hammered on Calci. Yeah. Maybe, maybe. I there's some funny ones. Like, I when when Tiger was getting bet on Calci after he like wrecked his car, like I feel like if I was on the PGA tour and somehow I saw that, I would definitely like show that to other people on the PGA tour.

SPEAKER_02 43:00

Like, does Travis Kelsey know I launched 30k on his game? That's what I was thinking about that.

SPEAKER_00 43:06

Like, something like that, I think, is is is quite funny. Like, it could he could know that. Especially because it could know that.

SPEAKER_02 43:12

So it leaked. I mean, I know Kalchi trades against insiders. Obviously, no insider has ever traded on Calci's money before, right? But it theoretically did leak the day before. So I would think, you know, Taylor's pretty buttoned up in her camp. I would guess somebody was like, hey, this leaked to Kalchi, just so you know. So I'd like to think, yeah, they looked into it and Travis Kelsey specifically looked at and was like, oh, this guy lost 30k. Probably I'm like, that's funny. Yeah, like I would like to think he laughed at me at some in some levels, like, what a dipshit.

SPEAKER_00 43:47

That would make it all worth it. Um, but but yeah, so so Kaelish is is on the rant. The only thing I want to say about this is like I wanted to update this because when SP and I first talked about it, like Like I think we were we weren't team Kalish, but we were like he's making some good points, you know. Like it it hadn't it hadn't taken too much of a turn. But I feel like he's really kind of lost the uh side of justice here, and it's now just turned into just an absolute ridiculous, like, you know, there's no he's he's not like he would make good points by like pointing out some obviously like marketing practices that were you know not genuine and and a bunch of stuff, and like he was kind of being honest about DK, like, yeah, like you know, we limit people, but now it's kind of I feel like he's just basically now gone into a fantasy world, and yeah, he's I can't really support him anymore.

SPEAKER_02 44:47

He like he it's one of those things where like if you ever like I'm sure you're a podcast guy, everybody, every sports like nerd is a podcast guy. Obviously, you have a podcast. So when you listen to one at first, you're kind of like, oh my god, this guy's bringing up all these original points. And then as you like listen consistently, eventually you're like, well, he's just hammering the same things home, like over and over. And you the person hasn't changed whatsoever, but your perception of them goes from like the highest level to once you're just like in there, you're like, okay, you know, like obviously he comes back to earth. That's what happened with Kaelash, where he came in and everyone was like, Oh my god, great! Like, he's bringing up some good points, he's talking, it's this informed guy, and now he's just hammering the same things over and over again. You're like, okay, dude, like we we get it. Is there any more depth to this other than you're pissed about some kind of stock price thing or whatever? I don't know uh if that's actually what he's mad about, but like, yeah, he just hammering the same points and he's just doing it so disingenuously on his side. Like, it seemed like at first he was willing to kind of give some ground, and then he just enough people yell at you that you just dig your heels. I do kind of respect that in some sense that like enough people have yelled at him about the limiting. He's like, no, actually, we don't limit at all. Like, screw you. Like, yeah, it's just our I can respect somebody getting yelled at enough that he just has now taken the other side of the position. Like, nope, I'm just gonna do it. You're like, Yep, actually, you're totally wrong.

SPEAKER_00 46:14

Yeah, that that that's exact that's exactly that's that's exactly it. Like, he's dug his heels in, he's now just decided because the certain the questions like that I think people bring to him that are honest questions is are like, what do you think about DK predicts? Like, what is how is that different than Cal She? What do you, you know, what would happen if you limited somebody who was betting their opinion and not betting arbitrage or you know, you know, stuff like that. And like on on those topics where you'd think that there would be a nuanced conversation where, like, you know, it would be hard to defend DraftKings position, maybe um, there, he just doesn't try. You know, it's just like something, you know, you're fat and so and so, and I'm blocking you now.

SPEAKER_02 47:07

Yeah, Shipper brought up a good point when we were on when we were talking about circles off where he's like, you can win over 80% of people by just never even acknowledging that side of the argument, just hammer your points home. And anything that like kind of works against you, you just ignore that. It's like that part, there's no benefit in even acknowledging their point. Just go to the points where you're winning the conversation at and like talk about that. So I know there's one guy who I he seems like he's got somewhat of a following who keeps like bringing up all these things DK did like when they were a DFS platform and giving insiders info. I don't know how true any of that is. Yeah, but like he just totally ignores that guy, like completely. And I I don't know like what's I don't I never was in the DFS streets, but it's he definitely the nice thing about like having Twitter, you can pick the replies that you want to like amplify, I guess, if you're him. If you have 18 replies, you can like pick out the dumbest arguments against you and be like, Yep, that's who's arguing against me. It's the dumbest ones. Right, right. There's no need to ever like bring up the people who might bring up a good point against you because you have enough just folly that you can smash back, like smash the ball right back in their face and like have it work that way. So yeah, he definitely picks the guys that he wants to argument that he can win the argument, which makes sense. It's just not an interesting conversation if you're actually trying to discuss it as opposed to just you know trying to dunk on Trek for whatever other reason.

SPEAKER_00 48:39

Right, right. He's in trying to, he's engaged with Heralibob recently, so that that's been new.

SPEAKER_02 48:44

The one Heralibob response was very good, you know. Yes.

SPEAKER_00 48:49

Okay, I didn't know you were regarding that.

SPEAKER_02 48:52

That one was great. Um, not quite spanky bringing up uh the slave trait in his defense, which was right, I I have to say taking that. I didn't take it see it taking that turn, but that was uh that was a good one.

SPEAKER_00 49:08

Um Kaylish brings people out. It's like in poker, like the best, like the best players will like take a weird line to bring like the GTO players like outside of their comfort zone and like they won't know the game tree.

SPEAKER_02 49:20

Kalish just brings these guys way outside the game tree, and now they're talking about slave trading, and it's just yeah, he's making you, you know, it's an ultimate like pressure makes diamonds kind of or pressure burst pipe situation where he's like throwing so much junk at you that you're now responding back talking about the slave trade and being like, Yep, that's similar to the plight of my million-dollar lifestyle I've made scraping, you know, top-down betting.

SPEAKER_00 49:49

He's too good, man. He's he's he's absolutely too good.

SPEAKER_02 49:52

I will say he is he's the person that we want to be the prediction mark, like the PM fighter. Like, get Googer the fuck out of here. I don't care. He comes in with just the most milked toast takes. I want a guy who's just completely insane. Like he just is willing to say whatever at any point in time. I want he's kind of the villain that we need.

SPEAKER_00 50:19

Right. Like he's he's larger than life. Like, you can't, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 50:24

Yeah, the PM bros have gotten too sort of, you know, you need battling sides on each of them where they're both insane. Like right, the PM bros have such an insane like denying of facts to be like, actually, you know, prediction markets are gonna change the world. We need someone on the up, you need a counterweight who's also insane. You can't have like a pretend journalist going in there and doing it. You need like another psychopath who's also making stuff up for no reason uh to battle them. So like you need both sides of the aisle.

SPEAKER_00 50:55

It's like John Wang versus Matt Caleb.

SPEAKER_02 50:59

Yeah, exactly. Live on Elf Spaces. It's the ultimate, he's the Joker to the like Batman, you know. You can't have just one guy who's normal and like in the mixed market, people are talking about how it's gonna change the world. You can't counterweight that with somebody who's like, you know, I wish they would just do responsible gaming. Like, no, you need somebody who's like, fuck those guys. I changed the world with DraftKings. We don't limit people actually. We created like I actually created this perfect environment that nobody can complain about. I just need that on the other side. So I'm glad that the PM bros finally have found their like the joker to their Batman.

SPEAKER_00 51:36

I feel like that's uh that's a good place to put the final word in on Kaelash. I I agree with that. Um, okay, so number two on the news docket is the this is one that's like kind of outside our sphere, so we'll obviously have to take some have some hot takes on it. But it is basically Polymarket had this market about will micro strategy, which is Sky like Brian Saylor runs it, and all they do is just long Bitcoin, I guess. And they were like, which I guess is like a company. I I I I don't know, but there is a market of like will they sell Bitcoin before um June 1st or May 31st, or I I don't know, what some recent date. And basically what happened was like there was no announcement and the market like settles at you know, whatever date the market settles on the contract, but after the market settle date, they they released their like quarterly um disclosure and it said they did sell before that date. So the market closed as a no, but after the market closed, they came out and said we did sell during the period the market was on. And now and polymarkets like sticking with the no, but people afterwards, like after the their financial disclosure came out, ended up like buying the yes because the market was like still open somehow. It's just this whole clusterfuck that happens when you do like a poorly designed in the rules.

SPEAKER_02 53:14

Does it say like the it has to be settled by it must say that, right? Like it's settled by X date.

SPEAKER_00 53:22

That's already more research than than than I've done. But yeah, like I I I guess the the they say the market settles on this date, basically.

SPEAKER_02 53:35

So they have to do that, right? Like to me, uh people are like complain I you know, it's I don't want to go like too hard on this because if if they said hey the date settles by here, and then the ruling came and the information came out afterwards, like I don't understand how you can say, Yeah, I won that market. Like they have to settle it by a certain date, otherwise you could just have infinite time where you're like, Oh, you know what I mean? It's like a stack correction in sport in NBA. It's no different than hey, they decided this guy had a stack correction, you know, after 24 hours after the fight happened, or a better example would be like in boxing where they uh if there was a fight that happened and then they have a drug uh test that happens a week later, you know, you can't go to circa and be like, hey, you know, I bet on the event, but like it turned out that it got voided. They have to eventually pay people out. So to me, whatever they say is the date, like they have to go off of that date, no.

SPEAKER_00 54:33

I I I agree, and those were both um brought up in the Twitter discourse I I saw. But I think like because there's now all these funny memes where it's like idea for a company, it's like polymarket, but when the event you bet on happens, you get paid. And it's like which which is funny, but it's like goes back to what SP said a long time ago when we're talking about a long time ago, oh like two months ago, when we're talking about like Cardi B. And it's like you just have to design markets where like if like the common sense, like if people would say like, yes, this happened, like then that's what's getting paid out. Because the name of the market is like, will MicroStrategy sell Bitcoin before this date? And like they they do sell it before that date, but the market isn't actually that's not the actual market. So it's just kind of like it's just this thing where I always feel like they like these companies, they like want they want sports, is just like the like the bastard like child, like that they want to shove in the corner. But every single public problem they've had has come from non-sports markets because they're just like so poorly designed and ambiguous.

SPEAKER_02 55:48

Well, they don't have any like sports, they're really just copying a market that's existed for however many years, right? It's like sports betting's been around since you know lefty Ralstein or whatever sports gambling hall of fame that we gotta learn about. But um but like these new events, there's no precedent set over the years. So they have they're kind of making them up, you know, on the fly. I don't even mean that in like a derogatory sense. It just these these edge cases haven't existed before. But yeah, anytime you have something where like not only are you trying to teach people about these new markets that they've never heard of, now you have to explain, like, oh, actually, and the way it's worded, just so you know, really matters, and you need to check the rules, like it's just gonna be too much of a learning curve. And you're right, it's like sports are the baxter child of these things they want to pretend don't exist while it's the only thing that goes well for them. So uh, I shouldn't say the only thing that goes well for them. That's probably an overstatement for poly market, which it's more these true like believers or whatever. But like I don't know. I to me the people bitching about this, also like, and this is gonna be probably unfair. If you're on PolyMarket International VPNing in and like you're making this market, I just think that like you have to be smarter than the person who's on ColG who doesn't know what the hell they're doing. So like there's a little bit, I give them a little bit more grace with dude, read the rules, like that's what should be there. And these people complaining about something that like doesn't technically follow the rules. Yes, it's a poor market by poly market, but I don't know. If you're on a place that has markets about Jesus Christ coming back, I think that it's reasonable to assume they're gonna have some dumb markets.

SPEAKER_00 57:29

Yeah, yeah, that is fair. And I guess you have to decide like how much are the dumb markets worth to everybody? Because this is just part of are you accepting this as like part of what's always gonna happen? Because that that's that's always what's gonna happen.

SPEAKER_02 57:44

I guess poly market to me, it seems like they're much more of the belief, like we're giving you everything and it's up to the user to decide. Where it's Calci's kind of been more hey, this is every market that we put up here is good. They're kind of giving it more their seal of approval, more or less, and maybe that's an unfair bar to hold them to, but that's kind of what it's seen so far. Um, where polymarket users are more sophisticated, which causes its own problems for them. But to me, like it's a bunch of people bitching about this, honestly, that feel it feels like they should know better.

SPEAKER_00 58:15

Yeah, yeah. Yeah, actually, like since uh the Cardi B Super Bowl, I'm trying to think of like a call stream market that was really like hotly debated.

SPEAKER_02 58:29

Oh the Ayatollah guy.

SPEAKER_00 58:32

Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 58:35

And then which to be fair to them, like I don't know. That I think they just kind of got put in a tough spot with regulators on that one to some extent.

SPEAKER_00 58:45

Yeah, like it was so dumb that they were promoting it, but like if they're stinking, like that was like yeah, I would say like that was that I feel like that blew up for like a different reason.

SPEAKER_02 58:56

Yeah, that one to me, they weren't clearly in the wrong in the way that they were for the Cardi B where it was like you're just this is incorrect, you know. Like I felt like that was a much more justifiable end resolution, even if the promotion up to it wasn't very smart, right?

SPEAKER_00 59:11

Right. Um the okay, Calci Perps. Honestly, I don't even really know what the fuck perp is. Um it's like uh stock, I guess. It's just you know, I was gonna say it's not a binary option.

SPEAKER_02 59:26

Like if you just know that this one, I Calci has perps. I have no idea basically what the hell. Like, I I mean I've read it, I kind of understand it. I don't understand these allow like they're like they're kind of like options, right? They're a little bit more levered up than regular stocks, right?

SPEAKER_00 59:44

You can get like stopped out of a perp. Yeah, exactly. So like yeah, like you it's not like you don't have to put up the full collateral and it expires at zero or one. Like you can put it up, you know, you can get levered up, and if the price goes from you know 100 to 80, you lose it, you know, everything. So that's great.

SPEAKER_02 1:00:10

Yeah, it to me it just looks like it's a more levered version of a stock in some sense, although like you can do it on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as well. Um, which you know, RIP if you did kind of take a perpetual move on Bitcoin.

SPEAKER_00 1:00:24

I was gonna say, like, um, this is a bad time. Actually, this is an interesting time for them to launch perps. Like, if I'm not in this, obviously in the crypto space, but I think we all kind of saw see like Bitcoins like at a local low. I forget what the exact price is, but it it's it's down there.

SPEAKER_02 1:00:43

Yeah, I think for if you were like the Calchi bowl case or the case for them, like everyone's like, Oh, is it a workaround for sports? The thing I'll give them is I think that they are trying to make it less like they are trying to do the non-sports stuff to their best of their ability. Like they are really pushing different non-sports stuff all the time and trying to get sports to be a smaller, smaller portion of the pie. Um, yeah, and it just turns out people like sports more. So, like they can they're trying to push all these things. Yeah, I think they just can't get away from the sports, which is what people actually want to bet on.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:17

I love it because we need them to stay in sports, so yeah, I yeah, I we need them to want to defend like we need like yeah, we we need sports contracts getting going back to being state regulated to be a doomsday scenario for Calci.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:33

Like, exactly.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:34

Because we need them to fight against that with all their might. So I say good luck to perps, but not not too much luck. Um, the other thing that I think happened after your circles back with it with Stripper and Flop was the Massachusetts gaming letters that everyone's posting on Twitter. Uh, you guys didn't cover I I don't think you guys. No, no, we didn't cover those. Okay. I mean, it's kind of like what we all thought was gonna happen. It would just be like really vague and everyone's freaking out about it.

SPEAKER_02 1:02:05

It's the it's the number one way to tell people how smart you are on Twitter to show like anybody who's posting their picture of the letter, is I it's just the world's biggest high roll for me, right? It's like, hey, look, I got limited by draftings. Hope you guys are pretty impressed. Uh the one guy sent a picture, he's like, Yeah, I took a hundred under a hundred and one hundred and eighty-one. Like it was clearly a typo by fanatics. He's like, and they kicked me out for arbitrage. Can you believe that? I was like, dude, this doesn't make you look smarter. It makes the fact that you're posting a picture of you taking a fucking art or taking a under 181 for a hundred dollars to cook your account, like that doesn't make that isn't gaining you the respect that you think it is.

SPEAKER_00 1:02:47

I mean, that's so much dumber than just betting recreationally.

SPEAKER_02 1:02:52

Yeah. So like everybody just showing, like, oh my god, listen, I got the letter. I know you guys, like it's just to me a big like that's I kind of mocked it with the like DK sent me one being like, Oh, you're so sharp. Like, everybody it's an example for everybody to go out and show, like, I got limited, just so you know. Like, congratulations. I I don't know. Yeah, these these letters I will give. I do hate that Spanky, I think, is legitimately trying to help betters out. I don't think it's so easy to do nothing and to bitch about the one person doing something. So I do want to give him some grace there. Um, in the sense that like how far do you back him?

SPEAKER_00 1:03:34

Do you back all of his points?

SPEAKER_02 1:03:37

Um, no, I think I think it's a like I think it's a non-fruitful exercise, but I think it's to do nothing and bitch about the one person trying to help is a little bit like it's way easier to poke holes in what's being done than to do something yourself. So I'll give him that. Yeah. Um, but like to me, I like I said earlier, they're enforcing bearding rules in New Jersey. Like, that's a hundred percent a giant crisis for everyone. That should be like front and center. Instead, we're worrying about like them making sure that they send me a letter that is totally meaningless. If you're getting limited, they're putting me on the back. Yeah, there's a 99% when you get limited on your P4. Like, I'm glad that they'll tell you, hey, you know, this is for Arbing. Like, it just they're not gonna go ahead and give you anything of detail. And almost everybody who gets limited knows why they got limited. Like they're not gonna be like, hey, you know that trade you made on Josh Hart, that's where we got you. Like with the situation, they're going to pick the most obscure language they can, and it's benefit, it just doesn't benefit anyone. And all it does is give them like more, I think, lice leniency in other areas that they're gonna pursue. Um, the more regulation in general, the worse it is for people. For betters. I'm not you know, this isn't some pro-libertarian like you know, argument against regulation. I'm just saying in general, for betting, we just want there to be less rules if you're kind of running rampant trying to extract from these books.

SPEAKER_00 1:05:08

Right, right, right, exactly. I think there's space for one of the operators to send a letter that's like, oh my god, you're so smart. We've never met someone as smart as you, and we're just really scared of your bets. So, you know, I hope you don't mind, but we're just gonna have to ask you to bet a much smaller amount because you're the smartest person who's ever come across our platform. And then I think that'd be funny. I think there's space for that.

SPEAKER_02 1:05:40

Yeah, I I just don't that's gonna be a tough sell through a like a board process that they're gonna have to go ahead and like hey, you know, we sent out the letter to everyone. Hey, we did this, it's a pretty funny joke. You guys will like it. Like, that's just not gonna work.

SPEAKER_00 1:05:53

That's why you gotta be a small guy. You know who would do it? Forecasters. If they actually could lend it.

SPEAKER_02 1:05:58

Forecasters underdog, like uh. Underdogs.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:02

Yeah, I think that was a lot of time. Yeah. Well, the thing is, like, I am happy I saw the letters because it's interesting. So like the first people to post them as like uh this is what they sent out. I'm not like too upset at that. Because I'm happy like I got to see what the actual letters are. A lot of people are bearding in Massachusetts. I did, I didn't know. But uh yeah, but then like the pylon and like everybody sharing their letter that's been shared 200 other times, like that's it's it's yeah, it's not flex. It's not a flex.

SPEAKER_02 1:06:42

Yeah, yeah. Right, right. It's like, oh yep, congrats.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:50

Actually, a funny, a funny kind of thing that slipped through was like during that whole thing, GRP is like, I bet a thousand on DraftKings on this like obscure prop. Um, so the last one was it was a question that you regarding a post you made, but the the Colchy Instagram ad about the weather. We have a question about it later on, but we can we can put it in the news section. Um what was the what was the ad you saw on on Instagram?

SPEAKER_02 1:07:25

Yeah, so it basically they're like outside, I think what it's a Broncos game, and they're just asking people over under 12 inches, which is like its own kind of funny thing to be sending, and people are like, Oh, at least 12 inches, way under 12 inches. And the person goes, Yeah, I make all my money on Cal sheet. I just stare up at the sky and I pick winners, like, and he's talking about his strategy for it, and it's just the classic like they talk about whenever the report comes out and they're like, hey, 1% of people make money from things, and they're like, obviously, this is like it's any kind of financial market. This there's plenty of precedent for this. Every financial market, it's a winner-take all kind of scenario. Kalchi's less than even like options trading, for example. This should have no effect on the legality, which I generally agree with. I don't think that like, hey, a bunch of people are making money means that this needs to be illegal. But the marketing, like the just quick head snap that they have to do, where it's anybody like obviously this is what's happened. This like this happens in every single kind of financial market to the marketing of just look up at the sky. If it's cloudy, like clearly that will go ahead and like you can print money this way. So I it just was one of the funniest. And I was telling you about it. I tried to take a screenshot of it, and like now that Instagram saw my time spent on ad or whatever, it they just now like literally every single ad I get on Instagram. If I get 10 ads, nine are Calchi. It's not, and that's not like exaggerating to the extent. They are just absolutely hammering at home. Um, and I'm just trying to take a picture to pick on them. They do a good job of like separating because they put the speech out on the uh video, but they do a good job of like separating it out so you can't see the full picture. Um, so I'll try to get some investigative journalism where I can take the screenshots and you know splice them together.

SPEAKER_00 1:09:18

The so this is, and you guys talked about it uh on your your circles back, but this concept of like it's not an ad I would run, like I would feel like I'd be like, I I can't in good conscience like run that ad, but like it's clearly working for them, and like yeah, I don't I don't know. Like, I think like yeah, we shit on these ads. Uh SP and I say that it's like we shit on the ads, and then we do a news item about how calls you just raised at 25 billion or whatever.

SPEAKER_02 1:09:47

And it's like I actually don't think that that's contradictory. Like, I think that we can point out that what you're doing is both successful and wrong. Um, yeah, and like wrong maybe is you know, I don't even think it's too strong of a word. I think that like you can point out that something is bullshit even if it isn't making money, you know? It'd be like if I can say it'd be like uh, you know, if vaping uh being saying that doing fruits or whatever is advertising to kids, and then going, well, you know, Jewel is making a lot of money from it, so I have to give them their credit. Like, I don't think that we necessarily can have to like say, well, it's working, so you have to give them some credit there. I just I think it's a super misleading ad and just kind of generally bullshit, but um I maybe I gotta alert Kaelish of it and we'll have him get on top of it.

SPEAKER_00 1:10:36

The thing is the draft someone brought up the old DraftKings ads, and they were basically the same thing. And it's like I don't know. I mean, I've always been kind of anti. I think like ads and gambling has always been very difficult because you can't really like run an ad that the company, the operator is gonna be happy with that's like at all honest to the the full spectrum of gambling outcomes or the reality of like what's the most likely outcomes. It's not it's not really a good ad.

SPEAKER_02 1:11:13

Yeah, you can't sell what you're actually selling, right? You can't be like, hey, it's it's entertainment only. Um come ahead and go ahead and slowly lose money as we try to increase your hold percentage. Like, that's not gonna be an ad that gets people want to sign up. You have to sell the dream of winning. And yeah, I the the parallels between Calchi and DK are so like crazy of pushing the limits on regulation, but you know, how much are they winning because it's the best product versus just having first fit and all these things, like they're just so it's just such an easy like parallel path to compare these two, and it's funny because they hate each other. So that like that's the best part is like just seeing you know the old version of themselves and Kal and DK is just furious at it.

SPEAKER_00 1:11:57

Like the Spider-Man meme, they're just playing.

SPEAKER_02 1:12:00

Exactly. You know, they're like what they're like, oh, that was me four years ago. God, I I absolutely hate like um all right.

SPEAKER_00 1:12:11

Well, let's let's hit the cues. We got a lot of questions. You're you're you're a big gut because a lot of questions came in. So, you know, I think I think we're we're pretty happy with this. We have one from we gotta start off with the one from uh the other hosts. Now we have three. Uh three people have hosted the pod. Sports projections. He's on the IR, but he he wrote a tweet. He's been on, he's had a couple funny tweets out there too. Um what are the top three worst takes in the risk takers podcast history? Uh I have one. How many do you have? Do you have three?

SPEAKER_02 1:12:50

I have three and an honorable mention.

SPEAKER_00 1:12:52

Okay. Okay, so I'm gonna give my one first because and this is gonna shock the world. I'm gonna use an SP take. I'm gonna use one of his takes.

SPEAKER_02 1:13:03

Disagreeing with someone, yeah. That's you know, not necessarily we wouldn't say you're strong too.

SPEAKER_00 1:13:08

Well, I know that Flopp asked a question to disagree with you later, so I'm actually just trying to like get over the hump. Yeah, so the SP take was that account priming accounts was uh like astrology for guys. And he's recant, he's recanted on this take.

SPEAKER_02 1:13:32

You're already going back. It's something he doesn't believe anymore. I want you to hear I want you to roast a take that he still has.

SPEAKER_00 1:13:39

Okay, I'll get back to you on that. Let me let me think. But but that one like has aged poorly. It's right after that. Yeah, every single person who came on the podcast for the next like four weeks was like, Yep, that's the one thing I do really well. Okay, so I I'll I'll I'll think about uh a little bit more of something that he actually still still believes in. Um certainly something around using your hands and working in your backyard is is gonna be an easy one for me. But but yeah, okay, I'd love to hear, I'd love to hear yours.

SPEAKER_02 1:14:11

Okay, honorable mention. I have I so I was actually told you I was listening to some of your old ones that like I didn't listen to before, or they came out in the fall. I was like listening to a bunch of college football pods. I'm listening back now and hearing your advice. You said, you know, don't go all in on PMs. You want to make sure that you're still using sportsbooks pretty good.

SPEAKER_00 1:14:31

You're literally doing the same thing I did. Okay, go on.

SPEAKER_02 1:14:34

I know, but I just I well that's honorable mention. I just want to say you're giving out, I was like, it's so ironic now now knowing like how you've steered into PMs that like your one piece of advice was like, hey, you can't go all in on PMs, and then weeks later we're burning the boats.

SPEAKER_00 1:14:54

You gotta adapt or die.

SPEAKER_02 1:14:56

Um okay, so number three. I feel like this pod is generally much more pro-cat than pro-dog. Am I wrong there?

SPEAKER_00 1:15:07

S SP is more pro-dog. Okay, well, but I just he doesn't currently he doesn't currently have a dog. So I'm dominating the pet conversation. I'm pro-cat.

SPEAKER_02 1:15:18

Yeah, I think dogs dogs are so much better than cats. I don't think you can say it's not even close. You know how I know it's not close is because when people talk about cats, when they talk about a cool cat, they'll be like, oh, he's like a dog. You never hear someone describe their dog as oh, he's like a cat. If they did, it would be a whole it would be a huge insult to the dog. But cats, they'll go, oh, he's like a dog, and it's a it's a generally like it's a positive.

SPEAKER_00 1:15:43

No, it means it's like a fat, lazy cat that like can't jump.

SPEAKER_02 1:15:47

No, that means it likes you. Cats that you know, they're like, oh, it's like a dog, it's actually nice. You're like, oh, because cats can be cool, but it's like a 50-50 shot. Every like dogs are like 90-10 cool versus not cool.

SPEAKER_00 1:15:59

Well, dogs will always like you, but like, isn't that kind of pathetic? Like, don't you want to earn the love? It feels better when you've actually earned the love and respect of your cat.

SPEAKER_02 1:16:13

No, I don't I don't like this creature. Why do I have to like earn the love of something that is beneath me that I feed and like generally take care of? And it's like maybe I'll like you after that. So that's three. Um, I'll move on. Number two, the fiction book Glazing by this pod. You guys are all pro-fiction books. Fiction sucks. It's a it's a worthless genre. If it was any good, they would make a movie about it. I don't want to read a fiction book. I want to read. If I'm gonna read one, I'm probably gonna listen to it on tape if we're being honest. And two, I want to like actually learn something. I'll do a non-fiction book, uh, listen to it on tape.

SPEAKER_00 1:16:50

But like reading fiction books is just you won't listen to fiction, you'll listen to nonfiction. I'm the exact opposite. I'll listen to fiction, but I don't like listening to nonfiction.

SPEAKER_02 1:17:03

Yeah, I if I'm generally like if I'm actually reading something, like it will be something much drier that I feel like I need to read it to understand it. Right. But like generally, if I do like a non-fiction, it will be like something like you know, Chuck Klosterman's 90s book, where it's like, okay, this is nonfiction, but it's not like teaching me anything, it's just more interesting.

SPEAKER_00 1:17:25

More like it just like talks about the 90s, basically.

SPEAKER_02 1:17:29

Yeah, it's a book about the 90s. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:17:31

That's fair.

SPEAKER_02 1:17:33

Sounds like fiction adjacent. Yeah, it's just literally being like, remember the 90s? About the 90s. That's what I find interesting.

SPEAKER_00 1:17:41

Okay. Okay, go on.

SPEAKER_02 1:17:43

Number one with the ball, like this is by far the number one take, is your water takes.

SPEAKER_01 1:17:50

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 1:17:51

Calling just calling it being like flat water. It's just water. It's normal water. Most people don't refer to them as flat water and sparkling water. It's just water and like spark, like sparkling water is a thing, don't get me wrong, but it's not like it's just water and then another thing, which is sparkling water. The fact that you had to like get weaned off of sparkling water, just I think sparkling water sucks. And I just genuinely love like flat water, or as normal people call it water.

SPEAKER_00 1:18:24

Flat water, it's catching on. Um, sparkling water is is way better. Water's boring. I like it. I love water after I've like ran two miles. Then I'm like really into water or flat water or whatever you want to call it. But if I'm like sitting down, want to enjoy, but you you have to remember, like, I also don't drink. So like like I go out to a restaurant, I don't want to get water, like, I don't know. Yeah, okay. Seltzer lime.

SPEAKER_02 1:18:53

I understand, but you're just replacing it with a shitty drink.

SPEAKER_00 1:18:57

I mean, yeah, that that was part of it. Like, like when you stop drinking, you drink a lot of seltzer. That that's pretty common, I would say. And yeah, it's just something else besides water that gives you a little fizz. Again, I'm not gonna start drinking like like eight Coca-Cola's a day. That's crazy. You know, I have to like monitor my health.

SPEAKER_02 1:19:18

If you're replacing drinking, I don't think calling like eight Coca-Cola's is a fair comp to it.

SPEAKER_00 1:19:23

So, but I was like, I wasn't also drinking eight beers a day. But what I'm saying is like I I I do like like the concept of like having a can, you know, it has a little fizz, it's not just water, like there's something else there. I don't know.

SPEAKER_02 1:19:38

Yeah, I it just tastes like shit, it's a problem. I get I get the theory of it, it's the taste of it that sucks.

SPEAKER_00 1:19:44

Okay. Um, okay. If I have another if I have another SP take that is bad, I I actually disagree with his um I disagree with two takes. One is his running take from your question. I actually think like now that I have thought about this question more, like he's gonna end up getting the world killed by being in the top one percent of of runners. I actually I can't really like square it up with him not being there when you include the world's population. Um, was it as bad as my Fortnite take?

SPEAKER_02 1:20:19

I was gonna say, I was gonna say he might be in the top one percent. You're definitely in the top one percent. Yes.

SPEAKER_00 1:20:25

That was terrible. I mean, if I'm if I'm going through like my own takes, like there's a lot that are bad and that I disagree with, but I'm trying to to to be a different person, only disagree with SP. And then and then the second is like SP's desire to do all these things like around the house and like how that automatically is is good. Like I think it's a I I think it's a bad take because of how valuable his time is. Like, if you're working a regular job and you don't have like the ability to turn monetize hours outside of that job, like sure, doing your yard work and like cooking these big dinners and building, mounting this TV and stuff, like all become additive, but like for him, it's very subtract, like monetarily, um it's expensive for him to be doing this stuff. So he really has to like to do it. And I don't know, I don't believe that he likes to do it so much that it like replaces the monetary cost for him. Um, maybe one or two things, but his his whole like pitch to be the blue-collar guy on the pod, I disagree with it.

SPEAKER_02 1:21:41

That's a good take. That's a good disagreement because I actually do some of the similar stuff to SP where I'm like, like it's it's definitely I moved all my stuff like from one apartment to the other. I moved it the other day. I was like cleaning out my car. It's like honestly, like I should just like pay someone to detail my car rather than me doing it myself. Like it just dollar-wise doesn't add up. I don't really enjoy it, but where else would I like have the time to listen to these 90s books? Um, if I wasn't kind of cleaning the car. So yeah, I like I don't know. I'm kind of on SP's camp, but I am willing, like I am freely admitting it probably is minus EV, but I just do it out of habit.

SPEAKER_00 1:22:22

Fair enough. All right. We've we've done SP's question. That was a good question. We got Alex, uh, another guest of the pod. These are just rapid fire. What percent of pro betters would quit if there's no volatility to their results? Just got paid EV. Like SP said he would quit last week. So um I think that I don't, I don't I actually think it's it's it's not that high.

SPEAKER_02 1:22:46

I I think it's I mean yes, people would stick with it way more, would you not think?

SPEAKER_00 1:22:50

I I was gonna say like SP said like he wants he would not paint your idea, yeah, but I don't think he would quit. I because that was just a preference. So my my my belief is like somewhere around five percent. Um for the true there's some there's I've I think we've all met like people who do make a living off gambling who are just also like degenerate, um, and somehow you know, yes, the breaking news, the big the big accusations flop is a degenerate. Yeah, would flop? Uh it's that's a good question. But yeah, I think like for the most of us, like most of us would probably be happy to accept the uh the EV.

SPEAKER_02 1:23:28

Yeah, I agree.

SPEAKER_00 1:23:30

Um if rec flow were evenly distributed across all market categories on PMs, where where do you go after after sports?

SPEAKER_02 1:23:39

Um so like if you're saying like if there's enough liquidity that I could bet on anything in PMs, it's where would like what would I find interesting essentially is the question here.

SPEAKER_00 1:23:50

Basically, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:23:51

Um I think any I think markets that are essentially like non-reoccurring. So stuff where it has no like there's no model that can be generated for it, there's no kind of value in doing it consistently, where each time it's a different problem. I like one of the examples, uh Thon asked me later about like what's a market that I spent way too much time on, and it actually I was able to get a lot down, so I couldn't pick this, but like depending on the astronomer CEO getting fired or not. Like situations where it's like this randomly comes up, there's no past markets to go in, it's just you generating a number out of thin air. Like, I love those kind of markets where it's just basically, you know, can you create, can you think through this problem logically? And can you come up with bullshit numbers on the spot to generate it? So I would say anything that's like non-reoccurring um that comes up randomly.

SPEAKER_00 1:24:54

Yeah, that that's probably like the right those do tend to have a lot of liquidity, or like the big ones, like the strong mercio.

SPEAKER_02 1:25:02

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:25:03

Those are gone.

SPEAKER_02 1:25:06

No, I just those are like the things that if there was another world where I know like I know it's not beneficial for me to spend my time looking into these, but I still do it because it's like uh I because I think it's genuinely interesting. Um it's so sad that like my big break from working is actually you can go ahead and do gambling in another uh gamble more gamble in a different market. So maybe uh to Alex's point, but yeah, I think that anything like where you're just generating something on the fly is such an interesting even in sports. I love like all-star games and like random stuff like that. I love kind of the piecemeal, uh the match or whatever would be like the golfing version of it where it's like, hey, just come up with something how it works.

SPEAKER_00 1:25:52

Right. Yeah, I I I think those are fun. Um my answer was it's kind of a weird one. Like, if I couldn't, so I would like to do the game show markets as long as there was no information leakage, like that that would be my favorite thing to do. Survivor's trader, survivor traders, you know, whatever. Obviously, you know, dancing with the stars was more live. Like, there's some there's some ones that are, you know, did you bet dancing with the stars? No, that was the first time even I even knew that like those markets were really a thing. Because everyone was posting about like Alex Earl and the other Steve Irwin's kit or whatever, but it seemed like all the sharps were on Irwin's kit, right?

SPEAKER_02 1:26:34

Yeah, I think I was on Irwin's kit. Yeah, I lost it. I was on the losing side of it, so no.

SPEAKER_00 1:26:42

Um, another culture market loss for Mr. Peanut Better. But uh but yeah, like those to me are like low data competition problems. It's similar, honestly, to what what you're you're also looking to do. Like obviously, there's like 50 seasons of Survivor, but the rules change all the time. And you know, I I think the concept of like if you were to be able to bet like episode to episode while it was going on, like it's like game state, right? It's like okay, what happened in the last episode? Now figure out like how likely everyone is to win with the new information. Like to me, that would be my favorite um other market. But if I had to do one like realistically, because you know, those I I don't know, you know, I think they're really bad when it's obviously just telling you who wins the show. So I I like mentions. Like after talking with Foster, like the c the men the concept of mentions is is great. I think it's has its own issues as liquidity gets bigger. Like you never really want a big position because anybody could just say, you know, the market is now aware of itself and and and whatever. But if we're kind of just doing this as an exercise, I like the concept of mention markets for both one off events and like continuous like NFL games. And stuff.

SPEAKER_02 1:28:01

Yeah, it once it starts to get like uh uh what's the physics term where once you watch a molecule it like reacts in a different way. Once it gets to that point, um attempt to sound smart that really didn't work.

SPEAKER_00 1:28:15

So once it gets to something about under observation, it's yeah, I don't know.

SPEAKER_02 1:28:19

Yeah, yeah, we don't know. So um, so but once it gets to that level, like obviously it's not fun, but like in this situation, I think it's fair to say he's talking in a world where your liquidity is whatever you make it, like they are not aware of it.

SPEAKER_00 1:28:32

Yeah, the mention markets, it's like sports, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:28:35

The one uh fluppin' uh Henry show where they talked to the guy and he said that like Jerome Powell said pardon me or whatever after a sneeze. Yeah, pardon him was in there, and it like he wouldn't get picked up by the transcripts for the live betting. That was like the first time I genuinely got excited. I was like, oh my god, like what that's such a great angle. Like in general, to though like for those to me, aren't as interesting just because it feels like it's a lot of like the same like you know, rules of thumb that they apply to all of them.

SPEAKER_00 1:29:08

Yeah, yeah, that was a great, I mean, that was electric. Jerome Balkoffs, and he's like on stream and he's like, let's go. Um, all right, we got Dennis Rodman Jr. Esquire, uh, great name, frequent question asker. If you could only bet one market for the rest of your life, moneyline's totals are spreads, but your counterparty could see your choice and shade that market two percent against you permanently. Which do you pick and why? I don't think I'd win.

SPEAKER_02 1:29:38

I was gonna say, uh, I would pick totals because I think totals are the most inefficient. And once we start getting to the point where they're shading against me, it's like I need to do everything I can can to win in this situation. So I'm gonna go do totals uh because I think like that's the only one. Sides and money lines just in general are like they're not only are like I know totals are less efficient in general, but like the and uh this is without testing, so that I'm just speaking out of bullshit, but it like the standard the variation of a total, like a total can be more way off than a spreader. A spreader money line, it's pretty easy to throw together a number that's like pretty close where it's like totals. Sometimes you can see the total be way off what it's supposed to be um in different markets. So like if I'm gonna be competing where they already have two percent on me, I really need it to be totals because I need the deviation to the true number to be off the like perceived number by as much as possible.

SPEAKER_00 1:30:36

Yeah, yeah, I would I would agree. Um, okay, this one's for you from Bunchu. Who is this year's Julian Saiyan, aka your Heisman? Who I'm gonna lose.

SPEAKER_02 1:30:47

Yeah, who I'm gonna lose a lot on. Um yeah. Uh so I have bet on three people for Heisman right now. Um one is Brandon Soresby. He's going to be suspended for the season uh due to a gambling allegation. So uh that bet has not worked out. The other one, uh one other guy I don't think is gonna be a starter now, so I've stopped betting on him. Um and the third one I'm still getting down on, so I can't tell you. So I would say Heisman this year going about as well as last year did. Um, already betting on guys who are gonna either not start or not play at all. So find someone else for a Heisman touting, I'm not good at it.

SPEAKER_00 1:31:28

Okay, we'll we'll we'll check back in, but you know, at least you're standing with our our gambling brethren um in solidarity. Okay, another question for you. I have to imagine because I don't know who the hell this person is, but this is from Hoopster Bobby. When is Cortez Hankton gonna get off his ass and sign a recruit? Who's that?

SPEAKER_02 1:31:48

Yeah, the that's a very uh niche recruiting question for Ohio State. Um is that Ohio State?

SPEAKER_00 1:31:56

It's no way it's their no, that's not their head.

SPEAKER_02 1:32:00

Okay, what what um Cortez Hankton is um he's like the replacement for Brian Hartline. Brian Hartline was probably the best wide receiver recruiter in like probably NCAA history, um, based on Ohio State's recruits and the guys they've had in there. Um I would say, you know, I don't know to Bobby. So I don't get into the recruiting game very much. Um it's just it's to a point where I feel weird learning what these 18-year-olds are gonna do and kind of like generating their decisions. I like to wait till they're 19 and then I don't feel weird about it.

SPEAKER_00 1:32:41

Um, fair enough. Okay, Pips MBA. Would you quit betting to build a business with your best friend in a field you love if it had a real shot at being worth a few million in two to three years?

SPEAKER_02 1:32:53

No, I absolutely love sports betting. Um it's like the question I like to answer the most. It's about sports, which I've loved my entire life. I think I'm uniquely good at it. Um, and if anything, I would just have my like I've thought about like bringing my friends into my business um and kind of have already. So um, no, the answer is I all people are like, you know, if you weren't sports betting, like what would you say like you conquer sports betting? I was like, my answer would be I would just do more sports betting. Like if I was too good at like if I made enough money, I never had to worry about making money again. I would just try to be college football Saturdays. Like, this is what I genuinely love doing, and I there's no other business that like I would want to start.

SPEAKER_00 1:33:38

Yeah, I mean, I echo that. I actually our business is I built with one of my best friends from high school, and I hope it's at least worth a few million. So I would say, like, I would just build in this field, like Mr. You know, this is the best. I I like I actually was talking to my wife. I was like, if if I wasn't doing this, like my second favorite job is like I'd basically I just want to be like a stay-at-home cat dad or you know, husband or whatever. Like, I just don't know. There's just nothing else that I think I would want to do. I mean, you could be like, oh, would you go like trade options?

SPEAKER_02 1:34:16

Yeah, no, I probably wouldn't I would lean into like coaching, uh like you know, be a high school football, just spend all my time high school football coach or something in those lanes. Like, but in general, like this is just obviously uh like lucrative aside, it's just to me, it's a much more interesting problem each day, and it's way more like high-level thinking, uh, rather than mundane, kind of smaller stuff. So, yeah. My answer if I was gonna start a business with uh my best friend, it would just be a gambling business and we'd go from there.

SPEAKER_00 1:34:46

Yeah. I have a take. I I think people like overrate how good like other businesses are. Like people are like, Oh, I'm gonna get out of sports betting, I'm gonna open up a laundromat. Oh, sick, dude. That's gonna be really fun.

SPEAKER_02 1:35:00

Yeah, it's really easy to glorify something from the outside, like yeah, especially if you've done this. The people bitch about like the like day-to-day the issues with sports betting, a lot of them, like the logistical stuff, is like what you're spending all your time doing in the non-sports industry. It's like, what if they took all the fun parts out of sports betting? That's what you're trying 24-7. So, yeah, I don't know. I when I was working as an actuary, I absolutely hated it. Um, I I shouldn't say that. It wasn't like I was miserable going to work each day, I just wasn't very like challenged by it. I didn't have my competitiveness brought out by it. Um, so like I will champion this is just a very fun industry to be in. You basically are playing a game 24-7, um, trying to make money off of it. So no.

SPEAKER_00 1:35:46

Well said. Okay, this is uh this is a suggestion for you, but promo cactus says we need a risk taker's Mr. Peanut Better style ranking list. I guess this would be of guests because we don't have the same number of like hosts involved as yeah, there'd be two people, it'd be a pretty shitty tier list. Yeah, and it would just be really offensive to to one of us.

SPEAKER_02 1:36:10

I have thought about doing uh like non-circles off, like I'll just rank everybody who's not on circles off in their own tier list. So it would be like you guys, Rufus's pod, and Henry and Chris, and doing one, but that's one of those things I think I want to do, but then I'd have to re-download the pictures again, and right that's just kind of annoying.

SPEAKER_00 1:36:30

So right, you already have the picture, you like you have your whole process, your pipeline built for the circles off one.

SPEAKER_02 1:36:36

Yeah, there's no way I could go and hit download picture like that. I don't have the time in the day.

SPEAKER_00 1:36:41

It's a lot. I mean, like we were talking about the Claude stuff. Like, do you ever get to the point where you literally have to type like a one-sentence reply to Claude and you're like, I can't believe I have to fucking do this?

SPEAKER_02 1:36:51

Like, yeah, I'm uh I actually thought about looking in something and adding like a voice recognition because I had to go in and like just hit yes. It's like what if I just hit yes, yes, allow, allow all, allow all. You know how many times I click allow all a day?

SPEAKER_00 1:37:07

A lot, yeah. Or you're like, no, I'm gonna actually audit everything, but every time you just immediately click allow, allow allow allow.

SPEAKER_02 1:37:14

Yeah, yep. Um I don't want to to go ahead and make those decisions for me, so I'll just instead make an ask and then never review. Never read it. Not once am I actually looking at it. I just hit allow all, but I feel more in control if I hit allow all.

SPEAKER_00 1:37:29

Right. It's like I'm my position's more defensible when it deletes the entire code base. Um okay. We got sheets with uh who do we like against the spread in the finalist tonight? So this is um tonight, even though the pod's out tomorrow. I have no clue. I'll just say the uh I don't even know what the spread is. I guess I'll say the Spurs, but I guess they're probably huge favorites. But uh I'll take the Spurs. Small favorites, Spurs, uh actually, I'll take I'll take the Knicks because uh they're more rested. There we go.

SPEAKER_02 1:38:07

Okay, yeah, they haven't accounted for that yet, so that's my um rest vs Rusty. We can get into one of those. Um no, I I'm on the Spurs pretty heavy for the series. Uh I took some look at headlines on the Spurs for game one. So uh I made the full heel turn after being on the Thunder all season. Uh by game seven, I like actually was pro net Spurs, which felt yeah, we I talked about this. Uh or Shipper said something about this. He's like, it feels disgusting to like change your loyalties after cheering for a team all season. But uh that's basically I like I was cheering for Thunder all season. Uh and by game seven, I was actually on the other side of the bet, uh, which felt gross. So now I have to fully lean in. Uh that's sick though. Like, yeah, yeah, yeah. I don't know. It just it feels disgusting after cheering for SGA for so long and be like, this flopper. Now I gotta like be like he's falling down all the time. What's going on?

SPEAKER_00 1:39:03

Um but yeah, that's so common in golf because it's like individuals too. So like one week you're just rooting for somebody and you're like, I hope this guy fucking chokes and ruins his whole life now, like the next week.

SPEAKER_02 1:39:16

Do you ever get this kind of happens uh in basketball in like in some of the awards markets? I feel it has to happen so much more in golf. Do you ever kind of get pissed when there's a player you like and then the market catches up and actually like moves ahead of you, and you're like, well, no, like I should still get credit because I liked him before. Like absolutely now is ahead of you, and you're like, it kind of sucks because you're like infuriating, especially when they win and you don't bet them.

SPEAKER_00 1:39:45

Yeah, it's not allowed to until I win. Yeah, once I win, then after that, you can increase the price of that person.

SPEAKER_02 1:39:54

Oh, yeah. So I never even thought about that. Like they're coming up in second or third, and you have them on all these outrights, and then the market goes ahead of them, and you never actually win one of the outrights.

SPEAKER_00 1:40:03

Yeah, like Cam Young is a good example of that. Uh good news was Tommy Fleetwood lost so much that nobody thought he could actually win. So we were we did actually still get a good price on him when he won, but there's been plenty of examples of that, that over the years for sure. And it's so infuriating. So infuriating. The worst feeling in golf betting, I think. Um we got uh this was this is uh you you alluded to this question earlier. We got Thon. Actually, I saw he is on circles off. I haven't I haven't I haven't gotten the time for pods today, but I gotta uh gotta check that out. Love Thon. What's the smallest most slash most most niche market you've sunk way too much time into on call sheet PMs?

SPEAKER_02 1:40:49

Uh so like the bad answer to the correct answer to his question is I spent a ton of time uh researching the New York mayor market uh and then like actually didn't bet it at all, but like really like dove deep into it uh because the liquidity was there. Um a great story with that. I'll tell that so I go through and I research and I look into and when I say research, like I don't want to oversell it here. I had ChatGPT do deep research and then asked it questions. Like, let's be honest on there. Uh it was still when I was using ChatGPT um rather than claw.

SPEAKER_00 1:41:22

Oh yeah, throwback.

SPEAKER_02 1:41:23

Yeah, throwback. So uh, but I like looked into previous mayor results, like primary results, and looked at the difference between like, you know, the primary, like how much did the uh Democratic primary did they win by in their first matchup? And like compared these going back like all these years, and I look at it and I'm like I messaged Fluff about it, and I tell him, hey, you know, like I don't think this margin of victory by Mandami is quite as big as everyone is making it out to be, based on like historic results. And he goes, I was like, granted, I don't know that much about this market, uh, but like I don't think like it's as big as everyone's making it out to be. And he messaged me back, are you kidding? Like seven or I can't remember what the percentage, but that's a huge percent. Uh like in politics, that's a monster percent. And he sends me back a map of fucking Ronald Reagan's victory, and he was like, This was considered a landslide victory. I was like, Well, I understand in the general term of uh fucking politics, like this percentage huge. I'm talking about this specific market of like Democratic primaries in New York, and he's like super time, just sends me back a map of Ronald Reagan being like 1984, like 7% is massive, like comparing it to the president. I was like, I understand.

SPEAKER_00 1:42:44

The presidential election.

SPEAKER_02 1:42:45

The presidential election, this is slightly different, like a more nuanced conversation, but then I didn't end up betting it.

SPEAKER_00 1:42:51

Um, but and Flock probably ended up betting it and stole your information.

SPEAKER_02 1:42:56

Yeah, and actually he was like, Yeah, my name is locked away, I'm sure. Then he made tons on it and like total, like actually made private while I'm you know the nerd looking up all the answers. Um so I looked, I actually took my Cal sheet, I saw Thon's question before, and I like uploaded uh all my transactions from CalShi and to call it and was like, give me the most random ones from it. So uh it looks like I had about 90 contracts on the Coldplay CEO scandal. Um I had a small amount on Stephon Diggs and Cardi B to get engaged to not get engaged. I guess it really just against voting on love. Uh between Brad and McKelcey um one. We'll dig into that on the I had uh I did a ton of uh research. This is one where I got killed. Was I did a ton of research on some of the Epstein list stuff and just got absolutely crushed by all of it.

SPEAKER_00 1:43:52

Um plus your psyche must have just been kind of hurting after that.

SPEAKER_02 1:43:57

Yeah, you know, it's basically just not only did I have to see you know my hero Jay-Z get named in the list, I had to lose money on it. So um, but that was one of those, like it was a macro, should have paid more close, kind of got rules cucked on it and should have paid more attention to it.

SPEAKER_00 1:44:13

The Jay-Z one was like mentioned because of his like album or something, or yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:44:18

So they like they if it was they released so many documents, and yeah, you could be mentioned it like someone could be like Obama was talking on the TV and be like, oh, Obama got mentioned in the Epstein showing, yeah. Yeah, so and I was on no for like everybody and just got crushed. So um, so that was a tough one. I did Dancing with the Stars, like I mentioned, um, and uh Will Trump comment on Taylor Swift. Those are some of the dumbest markets that I've been in.

SPEAKER_00 1:44:47

Okay, those are pretty dumb. I mine was uh I did a so I I don't know if you watch any YouTube golf. Your your friend Kirk Evans loves it over at uh circles back, but um Bryson De Chambeau is also a YouTube golfer and a professional real golfer, and he was sponsored by Call She. Like one day it like came out. It's like Bryson's being sponsored by Callsry, and they're like, okay, we're gonna put all these like YouTube Bryson markets up. And I was like, all right, you know, let's see. Like one of them was like, how many course records will he break on YouTube in the upcoming year? And so I like read the rules. I went back to all of his course record videos, figured out like if he broke the course record by how much, um, or by how much did he not break it? And I started like, there's so many strikes. There's like one, two, three, right. But yeah, you basically have to know two things, like how many videos do you think he will release, like what's his cadence of releasing his videos, and then like what's his chance per per video. Um so then I was like, okay, I'm gonna like put all these prices up. And then I realized like the prices that whoever had put like the first prices up were they were so wrong because a tie wasn't counting as breaking it, and they had like eight plus on there as a strike, and like his historic rate of like like breaking a course record, he basically what he does is he goes to a course and in one go he tries to break the course record on on film, and like while like yes, he's probably like the best player that has played that course, it's still like hard to break a course record in one shot, and on the call should rule is like he has to do it and not tie it. And I had him like breaking like one or two, um most of the time in that season, and their strikes were like going up to eight. I was like, this is ridiculous. So whatever. I I post all these things, and and the the problem was like they actually took it down and then relaunched the market as ties count because they of how like how bad Bryson was like, This is ridiculous, everyone's betting on me to get like one course record, like ties should count, or what it's just like bad optically. It was like this guy sucks.

SPEAKER_02 1:47:12

It's not an interesting question if it's one, right? Like if it's seven, then it's interesting, right?

SPEAKER_00 1:47:17

Right. So so that that was one where it was obviously a waste of time because it didn't do any volume, and they just changed the entire market after. Um, all right, we have the flop question. So flop had a few, and then it bled into uh his boy Clar's uh asking more golf one. But okay, question one is something I disagree with you on. I think I think the one thing that I disagree with you on a macro sense is I still like Goker. And I know you're yeah, yeah. I understand that he doesn't treat him at all.

SPEAKER_02 1:48:05

Well, let's get what did Flop Angeli say?

SPEAKER_00 1:48:07

What is one thing GP disagrees with Peanut about had to be real since GP likes to agree with everyone. So okay, I like Goker. He's I think like as a as a person, he's a reasonable person. He obviously is pursuing um prediction markets and sports books differently on Twitter, where it feels like he's probably consulting for sports books, and that's kind of talking, he's kind of talking his book, and that's where his bread's buttered. But if you read his actual newsletter, it's pretty good. Like he he puts a lot of the good information on there. It's it's much different than his uh tweets. And then if you like DM with them, it's also like he's a he's a reasonable dude.

SPEAKER_02 1:48:53

Yeah, I saw him, he and uh the other guy uh who's kind of the opposite side of the coin is like Audi um is like the prediction market. Literally every news that comes out is actually super great for prediction markets and stuff. Like they both seem, I'll give them, they both seem like pretty like they can take a joke, they're pretty reasonable. Like in it's just the role that they're meant to play on Twitter is the villain. Yeah. So I think their Twitter personas like are much more disagreeable than they actually are as people, where they're like they seem much more reasonable in every interview I've heard with them. So yeah, I I totally get what you're saying, as far as like Goger is playing a role, and I just the like disingenuoineness of it, where it's just like it's so clear that he's never once talked about anything DK has done in the prediction market space. They put out the world's worst product of all time, and it's like it's never mentioned once. It's the you know, Jason Robbins is ready to attack this market. Like it's just a laugh.

SPEAKER_00 1:49:54

Yeah, that's the thing, it's like if like yeah, he does have reasonable and Like if he was to do the same thing. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. He seemed like I was gonna say, if he did the same thing for for DK, we would all love him because like his actual commentary is like when he's like being critical, is like funny and stuff that we would we would agree with, but it's just that he doesn't apply it to DraftKings and Vanduel or or whatever. And that is I agree, like that's that's frustrating, but like I do like him still.

SPEAKER_02 1:50:26

Yeah, he does play, he does play a role, like he has a role in the system. I I've given him, like I said, I gave him two PB journalism awards. I saw that. So I I believe in him there um and what he's doing. And but yeah, I I get what you're saying.

SPEAKER_00 1:50:40

Okay, so we have we have a question for you from Flop. Uh, if you construct a team of only college players with one week to prepare versus the NFL team drafting first next season, what would the spread in total be? What would be the spread in total if you had an entire off-season to prepare? So I guess this is like part who do you how do you construct your team? And then Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:51:05

So the best way to, I think, to think about it is like, okay, how would the all rookie team do? And then you're gonna have to, I'm in his hypothetical, let's say we don't have you know perfect, we're not perfect evaluators, right? Like we won't get the all-rookie team, but that's just the best way to evaluate, I guess, like what is the ceiling of a rookie's or whatever. I the very like natural instinct is like there's the dipshit who's like, oh, they you know, the Raiders suck, they'll beat the Raiders by a ton. And then like the midwit, when you get to the like middle of the bell curve, it's like, oh my god, NFL teams are so unbeatable. You see this with there was like the question, Wemby on a suite on the would Wemby on a 16 seed win the NTA tournament. There's like the person who's like, you don't understand how great these professional athletes are. Like, there's no way they could compete. I do think like once you talk about once you're getting to just all first rounders, there is like a level where it's like, holy shit, you're gonna get like the best rookie wide receiver, the best like neighbors. Yeah, it's like neighbors, what would like neighbors, uh, the top two defensive ends of the class, like they're all gonna be there. I think like in the details of Fluff's question, if you're talking on you only get one week to prepare, is actually quite a big deal because college players play in such different systems. You basically are eliminating like half the players from the pool because they simply wouldn't be able to mesh with one another. Like in the NFL, it's not obviously McVeigh's running a different system than like a coach who's running a more shotgun-based approach, or like Stefanski is notorious for going under center and kind of rolling his quarterbacks out versus coaches who are more out of shotgun, uh, like the Bengals or whatever, don't go under center. But the offenses still are like the same general concept. Where in college, it's like you might have one guy if a team is running a power running system like in Iowa, they just can't play with the Baylor guys in a week. Like you wouldn't be able to run an offense, you wouldn't be able to create an offense that everybody understood. So you basically would have to get rid of like half the pool. So this is just a long way of saying, I have no idea. I'll say if they only get a week to practice, make the line team who's picking number one 21 and a half. Uh, if I get a full all-season to practice, nine and a half.

SPEAKER_00 1:53:43

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 1:53:44

Maybe seven and a half.

SPEAKER_00 1:53:45

That's pretty good. Yeah, I was gonna say, I was like, damn. Um, fair enough. Uh then we have uh a Scotty. We have a Scotty, we have some Scotty ones for real sport. GP uh assume Scotty is plus 500 to win the US Open. What if what is he if he cannot use any caddy? So he has to literally get somebody who knows nothing to just carry his clubs around. So he doesn't have to carry his own clubs, but it would be like somebody who knows absolutely nothing.

SPEAKER_02 1:54:12

Do you think that's like multiple?

SPEAKER_00 1:54:16

Through a whole tournament? Could be, yeah. It could be like somewhere over one stroke, I would say. Yeah, at least, especially like at these courses that they play, these championships at really big hilly courses. Yeah, you get tired, like four rounds carrying your bag. I could see it mattering like one to two strokes. Um, so he has his guy carrying his clubs, but he doesn't get Ted Scott. I think he would get. I don't think like I think his decision making would all be pretty spot on. Like that's obviously a strength of him and and Ted, but like they've done it for so long. Like, I think Scotty knows what to do. I think he'd get pretty like bored or like annoyed out there, not having anybody to talk to about stuff for four whole days. Like, I think his concentration would probably suffer. So if he's plus 500 and he doesn't get Ted Scott, and he just gets some rando. I mean, he put his pastor on the bag one one day when Ted Scott couldn't come.

SPEAKER_02 1:55:20

How much how much does a good caddy to a shitty caddy like what do you I mean I get like I'm saying the best caddy on the tour to let's not say the worst, but like you know, the tenth percentile caddy. How many strokes do you think that could mean?

SPEAKER_00 1:55:36

Almost nothing. Like maybe like point point one, point two, something, something like that. Like I think most of it's all gonna be like mental with the players, you know.

SPEAKER_02 1:55:46

Yeah, it's just gonna be thin, kind of how much yeah, exactly. Exactly. Exactly. Scotty's caddy is worth more to Scotty than he is to where you know, to exactly.

SPEAKER_00 1:55:53

Like if Ted Scott went to Rory, it wouldn't be the same thing. But uh yeah, I don't know. I I'd probably make him maybe plus 600 or plus 650. It wouldn't be a crazy jump, but I I I would certainly ding him like slightly with a manual adjustment. But I don't think like I think everybody who's done golf modeling, like there's no really good way to measure how good a caddy is.

SPEAKER_02 1:56:21

Um it's so ingrained, right? To like right, it's part of your it's the it's baked into the cake, essentially.

SPEAKER_00 1:56:27

Exactly. Like, so like I don't think anybody has like caddy numbers or whatnot. So I would probably just hand wave it and just knock them a little bit. How much then? Oh, sorry, good.

SPEAKER_02 1:56:37

How much do you think? Say you got Scotty's caddy and like all Scotty's resources. How much do you think it knocks off your strokes if you get them for a month?

SPEAKER_00 1:56:46

Oh, a month. Um I have all yeah, maybe a stroke, a stroke and a half, okay, something like that. Yeah. I mean, like, that's a lot, like it's gonna take a lot of time. I don't know.

SPEAKER_02 1:57:01

I mean that's just I was like, oh, okay.

SPEAKER_00 1:57:03

Like it's like a lot. I mean, that would move me. Like, I'm I'm trying to be scratch, right? I'm a 2.5, like with Ted Scott in a month, I could be a 1.5, a one, like that would be a crazy jump. So I I do think like if I got to play every round with Ted Scott and he knew my game and and whatever, that Scott is caddy, but like I would think I would probably be at least a stroke better, I think.

SPEAKER_02 1:57:26

Yeah. What if you're playing a course Ted Scott knows you are just going in, you don't know it? Like, how much of a difference does he make? Like if you're playing a brand new course, huge.

SPEAKER_00 1:57:38

Like that would be multiple, multiple strokes. Yeah. If we were playing my home course, like it wouldn't be as big of an impact. But yeah, going to a new course, that would be yeah, I I could see it being two to three to four strokes. Yeah. Okay. Something like that. Because you're you it only takes like one really, really bad decision to cost you like three strokes on a new two strokes on a new course. So yeah, for that that that's a good, that's a good corollary. Um, okay, Scotty plus 500 to win the US Open. This is from Clark's he gets his caddy. I love that. It's it's because it's built on Chris's uh question. But one random club is removed from his bag before the tournament and he can't replace it. He also has no idea it's happening until he reaches for it. What's his new fare? Um and then it's like how many random clubs removed until he's over a hundred to one fare. Uh well, it would matter because if he got his putter or his driver removed, it would it would really change his fare. Um so, but that's only you have a one in seven chance of hitting a key club. So I guess I mean you could do the math on this. Like, let's say, okay, if he loses his driver, his putter, he goes from plus 500 to like does he have any chance if he loses his putter? He has a chance. Scary to say, but he has a chance. He could pop it as well.

SPEAKER_02 1:59:11

How much do you think a putter is worth?

SPEAKER_00 1:59:13

For Scotty? Uh for yeah. No, no, that that not that many. Not that many, but it's probably worth three to four, two to three, three to four, two to four. Around. This is a round.

SPEAKER_02 1:59:30

Okay, okay.

SPEAKER_00 1:59:31

So um, let's call it two around, two and a half around, something like that. These pros can like blade their wedge and kind of make it work.

SPEAKER_02 1:59:40

It probably gets better by the end of the tourney, right? Like you absolutely, yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:59:43

Like he'll figure it out. Like, yeah, for sure. The first round will be difficult, he'll get used to it. Um, US Open, like it's gonna be less about making birdies. So he's actually like gonna be this isn't gonna be as big of an issue for him at a US Open. And uh, but it will be a big issue. So let's just say like without his putter, he becomes like 70 to 1 or something. Um, and then without his driver, he becomes 25 to 1, 30 to 1, something like that. So okay, so I would just say like those are the numbers, and then we could we could run the math. Um how many random clubs removed until it's uh over 100 to one fair? You would I mean once you hit his driver and his putter, like you're he's fucked.

SPEAKER_02 2:00:31

So yeah, you how many irons like you have to basically I mean it the iron question is like how many are in a row, right? Like I just it almost has to get to like the putter and driver, right? It almost yeah, or at least one of them and then like three irons in a row.

SPEAKER_00 2:00:47

Yeah, exactly, exactly, exactly. So my guess would be like five or six clubs. Like there's other like semi-key clubs, like I'm sure his lot his lob wedge would be his third key club. Um so yeah, say like five or six would would put him over a hundred to one. And then if Scotty knew beforehand what would he how would he change his bag, he would bring two two drivers and two putters, and then he would take out, he would regap the rest for the rest of his irons to be like a little bit different. Um but good question. Good question. Okay, we got shh oh I skipped Shipper. Okay, I can't skip Shipper. Wow, I skipped them a while ago. Okay, if an odd screen, if odd screens didn't exist, um, basically would you make more or less money today and assume that so odd screens don't exist, but odds feeds and sports books don't exist either. This is kind of like the AI question.

SPEAKER_02 2:01:45

Yeah, I I said I think that, or I guess I didn't say anything. I uh I think that I would be he said so he said the traders also can't look at other books, right? Yeah so I I followed up with him and he said no, like they also can't look. I think that I would make more because I think generally the prior of the trader is going to shift so heavily to better is unprofitable now that there aren't like the arbors in there, like the number of profitable betters is decreasing so heavily that they're gonna be so much slower to limit. Um, and they're gonna be so much slower to limit because like basically if you're winning without an odd screen, like the number of people who can do that is so much lesser that like they're gonna be so much slower to do it. I'm not very like I would not say executing and getting the best price always is like a super good skill of mine. So I think definitely more profitable.

SPEAKER_00 2:02:41

It's huge for you.

SPEAKER_02 2:02:42

Yeah, like I think that this is like basically would be, you know, my gift would be let's get this odd screen out of there. Uh, if I could get rid of it for everybody else, that would be a pretty big benefit. Um, I will say, like, more when I was betting like college football, um, like when I was more focused on main lines in general, it would be much more detrimental to me. Now I've kind of shifted my focus to you know, beat up on the easy stuff, go bet, like you know, shoot uh SGP angles, bet uh straight props, stuff like that. It just it's gonna help me so much more now uh than it would like a little bit ago.

SPEAKER_00 2:03:20

Yeah, yeah, true.

SPEAKER_02 2:03:23

I think golf would be so hard without like a market fair to come up with these longer shots.

SPEAKER_00 2:03:29

God, if if dra if if data golf didn't exist, I don't know. Yeah, it would be great. It would be great.

SPEAKER_02 2:03:38

I would be so I guess how much does line chop or does I guess if they can't look at theirs, their numbers are gonna be, but like I feel like without a market sense, it would be much harder to bet on the tail, like these 50 to 80 to ones. No, do you like think no, not as much?

SPEAKER_00 2:03:58

Like no, I would say like it's I guess you have the previous clothes. Yeah, you're you're also oh yeah, I didn't even think about that, but we could just use the previous clothes. So that would be even better case of you know, but I guess sportsbox can use the previous clothes. No, I I would say it's it it's it's not that big of a deal because you're just you're basically like all of golf modeling is gonna be through a sim anyway. So like if your sim's good, it should win at the tails and at the meat of the distribution, right? Like in the the golf, the sports books to build out a golf, like a really good golf sim, it's like it's not really worth their time, you know. Like they golf isn't like the most popular sport, but it's a very complicated complicated sim to build, and like they can just get numbers from data golf and kind of like move them around. Like what they're gonna have to do to now put up good numbers is is it's a long journey for them if they don't have their own sims. Yeah, and I think it would be really good.

SPEAKER_02 2:05:05

Yeah, and I guess I was thinking of it as like, okay, the tales of a like a sport onbetting are like it's really hard to get to the fair price of alt in the NBA without having uh without like it's really hard to price an alt without knowing the other markets. Like it's just there's way so much uncertainty. But with golf, because it's like the main thing and you're always going for tail outcomes, you're it's not like the same uncertainty doesn't exist, right? It's like it doesn't right, it's not the same betting a golf outright, even though the probabilities are similar to betting uh, you know, eight plus threes. Like they're just fundamentally different questions, even if the odds are in the same range. So yeah, I guess I was kind of viewing it through the prism of like, you know, I think it's really hard to price the tail outcomes of a college football game uh without an odd screen or somebody else helping you do the work, essentially, where you're like, okay, I know I want to target variants in this spot, but golf, because the population pool is you know what it is, it's just you're gonna have more odds. Like it's not as unique of a problem.

SPEAKER_00 2:06:12

And everybody everybody who wins is basically a tail outcome besides Scott. Yeah, yeah. Like what you would consider to be a tail outcome. So it's like, but I there's a there's a question to go off of that. Any advice for back testing markets that have very few results, like golf outrights, and finishes. Um, I currently I test against benchmark models. I think that's probably data golf and sharp line, so like Chris, um, but potential to disguise edges, miscalibration. So I think like it's really hard to run a golf outright finish sim because you have to like you have to or back test because you have to like re-sim the whole tournament. You can't just be like, oh, this is the outright price, you know, like I would have spit out with some simple math. Like to price an outright, you have to simplify to do it. Yeah. So I have an outright back test that takes still takes all night. Um, that one's computationally heavy. But what I would do, what I would say is like, you know, you test your sim against outright top five, top 10, top 20, make cut. And that way you, you know, outright and top five share a lot of the same um characteristics. You know, they're both kind of long shot. Um you know, you're gonna get those more frequently if you have, if you as a player have a higher standard deviation, basically. Like you should get outrights above your skill level and top fives. So it does help. And to a certain extent, top tens, but then top 20s and make cuts, it's like the flip. So it allows you to kind of calibrate through the mix of it's basically like this is what I predicted. Like, did that kind of play out across the board? Instead of being like, I'm just trying to predict golf outrights. It's like, well, if you just do that, it's gonna be very difficult to actually get any confidence in your back test because this person's right. It's like you only have a couple a year.

SPEAKER_02 2:08:13

R right. Basically, you can test the whole distribution of your model if you do all the markets rather than if you just do outrights. You're never gonna create a sample size. It's kind of like uh you can do like pairing sampling to see if something is like you can create basically a bigger population pool by expanding the number of markets you're back testing. If you like, you can make you can have more confidence in a well-calibrated model if you're testing everything as opposed to outrights. You're just never going to be able to have a sample size large enough to like feel good about it's like trying to test on if you were doing only alt lines on like college football, you'd be like, there's no way like I feel can feel good about this, but can I feel good about like if I do you know spread, money, line, total? It's like if my spread, money, line, and total are all coming out equal, you'll just feel much more confident than if you just start doing like some weird random event.

SPEAKER_00 2:09:10

Exactly. Exactly. That's exactly right. Um there any questions that you really wanted to hit that we haven't hit yet.

SPEAKER_02 2:09:20

Clar's hit a long one about Wemby that was good. I just think it's gonna take too long for us. Okay, you want to do it? Okay.

SPEAKER_00 2:09:27

We we can give us the the great. Claris is just gonna yell at the end of the question.

SPEAKER_02 2:09:33

He said I could give me permission.

SPEAKER_00 2:09:37

Yeah, he wanna give it to you. Okay. Sorry, Claris. We did we did the golf one. Um the good uh when was the last time you yelled at somebody? Yellow at my dad like a while ago. I'm not a yellow. As everybody knows, I like to go. I think like it's it's been a while probably before my dad's just really custom. Something about like moving a table, like no, actually I yelled at my dad. It's just my dad. Sometimes where uh basically he didn't want to I was like busy because it doesn't work anymore. And he was like, you need to do this. I'm like, I'm busy, you don't fucking do anything, you do it. Something like that.

SPEAKER_02 2:10:32

Wow, that's really mean. So I'm going with a much more fruitful example of I let I got into an argument last weekend where I got into a yelling. Uh it was uh or two weekends ago, sorry. Uh, Buddy's Bachelor Party. We got into an argument over. So a while back, there was a conversation of how many tacos from Taco Bell could I eat in one setting?

SPEAKER_00 2:11:00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 2:11:01

I said I could do 20. I only did 15, but it was really like it was the taste of the tacos that limited me. Rather, like it just once you eat the same food repetitive. I said by the spirit of the question, I got it correct because like I could have ate more and like it turned into a yelling match. So um yours much more serious. You're screaming at your poor dad about moving a table. Me, meanwhile, I'm yelling at my friend about uh the number of tacos that could be eaten in one setting. Uh mind you, a competition that we did, I think, eight years ago.

SPEAKER_00 2:11:36

Irrelevant. Wow. Okay. Okay. Sounds pretty good. And that that that's that's a good one there. Um we talked about kind of college versus pro, so there's another LSU Cleveland Browns question.

SPEAKER_02 2:11:50

Um, I'll just say on that half, uh, everybody uses 2019 LSU as the team for that example. Uh the 2001 Miami Hurricanes were a better college. Team. Um, and they are the team that you should use for any hypotheticals we're doing the best college team of all time.

SPEAKER_00 2:12:06

Okay, there you go. I think that's a good that's a good answer to that question. Lifestyle, okay. How much money is enough none money? Can we retire? We've already answered this, as we would still bet on sports. So um one part of that question was like, what life events are you comfortable missing to grind edges? Like that I'll still I want to go to anything I actually want to go to, is basically it. I'm willing to say no to stuff I don't want to go to. And then if I want to go to it, I'm I'm there. And that's how I split it up. Like, I don't go to things I feel like I have to go to, I'll just say I gotta work.

SPEAKER_02 2:12:40

Yeah, I I would say that I was like, I really did all like somebody else also asked about like work-life balance, um, and you know, how do you manage that? I would say that I did a really poor job of early on, I just grinded the shit out of everything and like really went hard. And now have like once you kind of reach a little bit where you're like, oh, I don't have to work. Like, there is almost like uh plane taking off, like you have to get to crazing altitude. And when you're in that zone of like trying to make sure you can do it, like I think it actually is plus EV to like okay, miss a couple things while you're really in the building stage, and that's okay. And like you can make it up on the back end. Now you don't want your whole life to be this thing where you're like grinding and eventually like I can actually have fun in two years or something like that. Like, you know what I mean? You can get to a point where you do it too much, but there is like because this there's like asymmetric returns in gambling. I do think there is a point where you just grind it, grind it, grind it until you get to a point where you're comfortable, and then you it's like it's hard to pull back because you've been used to this for doing this for so long. And I would say that sometimes I struggle pulling back, but I think there is like a point you have to get like an escape velocity to reach, and then you can start to do everything, like not everything you want, but you know, it's much easier.

SPEAKER_00 2:13:56

Yeah, 100% agree. I'd say people are more more prone to peg to less work than more, and like that stage is very important for just and nobody's gonna understand it. Like, people are gonna be like, wow, that's crazy that you're you know, you're trying to you're not gonna go out and have fun with your friends because you want to like figure out if the 2017 2019 LSU team could be the 2017 cool routes or whatever. But it's just like you gotta do it. Like it's the the reason it's it's not many people make it.

SPEAKER_02 2:14:32

So like Yeah, and the there's a pretty thin line between I like you're making a decent amount of money, um, have you get to look at sports problems all day, and you're a loser who didn't make anything.

SPEAKER_00 2:14:44

So like exactly, exactly. It's not uh it's not a linear distribution of results, exactly. There's keen, you know.

SPEAKER_02 2:14:52

There's keen there's almost like, yeah, like I said, there's an escape velocity where and now like I would say uh sometimes I look back, I'm like, oh my god, like I worked, but it's like now I don't have to work that hard because of the time where I was like doing stupid amounts. And a part of it was also I like didn't it the old like adage of work smarter, not harder, like that definitely but you like you just don't know what you don't know to start. So like you basically just have to grind it until you figure out, oh, I don't need to work this hard because I figured everything out. Not everything, right?

SPEAKER_00 2:15:23

But you know, exactly. Yeah, I think I think exactly. Um I because I thought about this question, two mulligans per hole, do I make the cut at Shinnecock? I think so. I think so. But I'm I'm not a hundred percent sure. But I think I probably do. Um okay. We gotta do a Bayesian, we gotta do a Bayesian update because we gotta keep the the um you know, we gotta keep the flow of the show right. I'm gonna do a very, very Bayesian thing, and I'm gonna do my third update on the same thing, making me now I'm at the point where the posterior is it's so strong that this opinion is 100% correct, and I'll not hear any any dissent on this. Apple TV is hands down the best streaming service. It's not even remotely close to this. You have Silo coming back, Margot's got money problems, is new, great. Widows, Widows Bay, new, great. And then the next thing they're putting out is like this like heist thriller with uh uh the main character from Queen's Gambit, like that's obviously just gonna be good. Like everything they put out is good, and everything that's coming out like in Netflix is like one out of 12 is good, and it's just that they like spew content and like they make you think it's like really valuable. But at this point, like even though Netflix puts out like 20 times the content, I'm still watching more on Apple TV because of everything they putting out, they're putting out something I want to watch. And I I went from like I think they're the second best to like they're probably the first, they're definitely the first. This is a true Bayesian update that's updated over time as more evidence has come in.

SPEAKER_02 2:17:12

They're kind of like the old what HBO was at its peak, right? Like every like they might not come out with as much stuff, but they're coming out with the six best shows nobody else has ever watched. Like, no, I feel like every single show I like on there, I'm like, have you watched it? Like, I really liked uh it's not like the highest quality, not like the but I like the John Hammond show.

SPEAKER_00 2:17:32

Um, that's a great one. Friends and neighbors.

SPEAKER_02 2:17:36

The uh Dark Matter show I watched.

SPEAKER_00 2:17:38

Um that's another good one.

SPEAKER_02 2:17:40

Yeah, so like I feel like all the Apple shows I've watched every single time I've never like oh oh that's not true. I had to watch uh I was dragged into watching the one with Reese Weatherspoon. That one was pretty terrible. The morning show. The morning show, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 2:17:54

Honestly, I didn't like the morning show either, which is funny because that was like their first show, was like the morning show, and people were like, oh, it's really good. I never got into it.

SPEAKER_02 2:18:03

Yeah, it was just yeah, it was like it it really feels like a Netflix show in the sense that it's kind of like sloppy put together. But in general, yeah, they have like they have these shows with like huge name actors that like get zero marketing that you're like you're it's I think it's just because Apple has so much money and they're uh you know, they don't give a shit. So they're like, why don't we make one high quality product that we can just give people uh while screwing everybody on Apple? You feel like you're stealing.

SPEAKER_00 2:18:30

You're like, this is like John Ham, and you know, you know, here's Nicole Kidman, and then oh it's it's you know Hugh Grant. Like every show has like an alias set. You're like, and I'm paying like six dollars for it.

SPEAKER_02 2:18:41

Like zero marketing on any of the show. Right, right. They exactly like like that dark matter show. Nobody ever talked about it. I just looked, I was like, Is that Jennifer Connolly's in the show? Like right, right.

SPEAKER_00 2:18:53

So right, and they yeah, and it Anna Taylor Joy is because she was also in Mad Max too, which is solid. But yeah, it's like every show has an A-less actor, and you've never seen this is the most advertising they've gotten.

SPEAKER_02 2:19:06

Is actually on the Yeah, the Apple's gonna break this out. This is gonna be it's gonna be caught and Apple are like, oh finally, those two little companies get a break now that they're not gone.

SPEAKER_00 2:19:16

Thank God. Um, but yeah, so that and now I'm I'm officially considering that not needed to be updated, the market's settled, so yeah.

SPEAKER_02 2:19:26

So I'll I'll do my Bayesian update was before our conversation about Kaelash, I was like, hey, you know, like kind of unhinged, what's going on? After our conversation, I think we need him as part of the environment to balance out the PM bros. Like, I think that he they create by himself, like the the PM bros are like an invasive species that's taken a habit of sports gambling, and we need a predator like Kaylish to come in and like put them down in their place. So that's why I'll say that Kaelish is like the proper person that we need in the space.

SPEAKER_00 2:20:03

Okay. I'm I'm on board. I wouldn't want to lose him, honestly. Like if he wasn't on Twitter, uh it wouldn't be as fun. So I'm on board with that. Um well we may have actually set a record for the longest, longest one. I'm not 100% sure, but it's pretty close. Uh thanks, thanks for coming on and uh doing two hours of of this. You know, people some people don't have the stamina. So I I knew since you had done it with me and SP before, uh, we could uh we could get it done. But this was a lot of fun. Thanks for uh helping us put a show out this week. And uh yeah, you have anything for the audience? Anything you want to push, plug?

SPEAKER_02 2:20:44

No, nothing. Oh I will say I can't now I like have shit on you guys for I was like, oh, you guys always do over two. Now I can't do any like jokes about your guys' length of episodes because I got on here and just didn't shut the fuck up for two hours.

SPEAKER_00 2:20:56

So it's hard. Yeah, it is.

SPEAKER_02 2:20:58

I don't want you to keep going, you know. People have to hear my Apple TV date. Well, yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_00 2:21:04

Like the third for the third time. Like people need to hear that.

SPEAKER_02 2:21:08

I gotta repeat myself one more time just so people know about Apple TV.

SPEAKER_00 2:21:12

Um, so yeah, it is hard. I'm actually I'm happy that that you've now realized this. It it's it's quite difficult. So anyway, but thanks everyone for questions um and listening, and uh, we will we will see you next week in SP's uh triumphant return.