Sharp Taker EvenSteven Talks About Maxing Efficiency | Ep 162

Today on the show we are joined by EvenSteven (https://x.com/evenstevengg) - a sports bettor with seven-figures of profit on prediction markets.

Steven talks about why most top down bettors shouldn't try to originate or market make, how to analyze live trading data to find edge, and what is the most important skill a live taker can have.

0:00 Sports Betting
30:30 Prediction Markets
1:10:30 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:00

Um, and even like even on like prediction markets, like when I started getting into those like later like last year, probably like August of 2025, like I after like a month, I was like, this is too slow to click. So like I bought a stream deck, which is like where you can hotkey and like program like how many contracts you want to put in. And so I reduced the time to like place a trade from like five seconds to like two seconds, right? Just through that.

SPEAKER_00 0:46

GP here, SP with ES, kind of, even Steven. Um you may know him from Twitter as even Steven, he's on the Calchi Leaderboard and the Bookie Beats uh Discord. Um yeah, Steven, welcome to the pod. Your real name is Steven, so it wasn't a misleading um nickname. Very you know, straightforward. I appreciate that. Yeah. Um, well, you know, I think we have uh we got a lot of you got one of the record number of uh amounts of questions, so that's good. You have a lot of people out there who showed up to ask some hard-hitting questions, but I think one thing uh we always like to start with is just hear a little bit about your background and your journey to advantage play.

SPEAKER_02 1:38

Yeah, yeah, so certainly. So I kind of got into this in Advantage Play, and just in general, like back in like 2022. Um, but it kind of came by accident um and in reality of like I, you know, had this fund money that my wife and I, you know, budgeted in our accounts, and you know, I saw a NASCAR ad um for MGM and deposited my fund money into there and ended up losing it all and the bonus bets. And you know, they gave me like 25 bucks back and I won like some money off of it. Um a decent amount. I was like it was like $800, which was a lot to me at the time. Oh wow. Like it was a pretty lucky parley, but came down to it is like I won that, and the next morning uh I was basically on Google how to make money as sports betting and had an Osbiam free trial in a couple hours.

unknown 2:32

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 2:33

Wow. So you kind of found the right thing. Like, you know, you could have Googling how to make money sports betting, I feel like isn't always gonna like hit get ping you back the right result.

SPEAKER_02 2:46

Yeah, yeah. I I feel like it was, I mean, it was lucky enough I already hit the parlay, and then I had the curiosity to be like, do people actually make money off of this, right? And yeah, didn't stumble upon like you know, a pixel or something.

SPEAKER_01 2:59

So so when you when you w won that parlay, like were you like aware of like act like how people actually win, or was this like just like I won money, this must be easy, like let me figure out more, or like where were you when when you were googling that?

SPEAKER_02 3:16

Yeah, so first off, it was like okay, I won the money, so I had like this confidence, even though I had no idea what it did. It was like a four or five leg MLB parlay on like random teams, and it was like just the last $25 that was in the account. And so I was like, okay, like maybe like there's some secret method or something that like people use or do, and then like yep, stumbled upon like the EV and arbitrage and it and promo turning and and all that, and that's where it kind of took off. Uh was was from there.

SPEAKER_00 3:46

Do you think that you would have um that if you didn't win that parlay?

SPEAKER_02 3:52

No, I don't think so, honestly, because I like gambling like in my life has I feel like it's been frowned upon in the past. Uh, and then also like it felt like very awkward to do it because I like I didn't tell anybody that I like put the money in there, you know, it was like just the fun money that we budgeted in our, you know, from my paycheck at the time. And uh yeah, so like if I had not won that, I've just been like moved on, just forgotten about it.

SPEAKER_00 4:20

So it was like a million dollar parlay. Yeah, maybe more. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 4:26

Yeah. Okay, so you win the parlay. What what do those sort of early steps then? You said you started researching, you found odds champs. What does that look like? How does that, you know, conversation with like I don't know if you need to talk to your you know family or wife or anything at that point if you're getting into gambling because it wasn't, it was like it sounds like you weren't recreational gambling even before. But what what do those early days look like for you?

SPEAKER_02 4:51

Yeah, so like when I got the free trial, right? So you you have it for seven days, and like I'm trying to make the most of it that I could. So firstly, it was like $890, $900, like slightly less than a thousand that I had in the MGM account. And I wasn't gonna deposit like anything else into like other ones. So when I stumbled upon like, you know, odds GM and then learned about the bonus training and what now you can deposit in arbitrage and you know, convert that bonus to like real money. I basically took like some like $500 out of MGM, put $250 in DraftKings, $250 in FanDuel, and then like, you know, got the bonuses there and then continued on like you know, over a period of probably like two weeks of just like converting those bonuses. Um, you know, if that gave me additional bonus bets, you know, because the account was losing or something, like converting those just as much as I can. And then I think by like two or three weeks into it, I had doubled the bankroll essentially. So from you know, a thousand to two thousand roughly. Um, and then that's when I started more of like being inquisitive of like, okay, what is actually like the plus EV and arbitrage, right? Which is a little different skill set than just you know converting a bonus to real cash. Um so yeah, from there it was it was more of a hey, now now I have this money, right? Now I can like maybe you know try to do this arbitrage or EV.

SPEAKER_00 6:18

So when you when you started with the arbitrage and and EV betting, were you I assume you started with um arbitrage betting and then realized like one side was the sharp one, or you know, how'd that go?

SPEAKER_02 6:32

Yeah, I think that took me a long time to like realize, probably at least like a good five or six months of like you know, understanding like, okay, like there's a reason I have to keep pulling money out of MGM and putting it into FanDuel, right? Because MGM is just soft and just like you know, like they're they're you know, I was probably hitting like our arms on like player props all the time, and I'm surprised the account even lasted as long as it did. Right. But like the reality was like, okay, it it took a while to understand like that idea of like one book is like has a good price and one has a bad price. Um, but I think once I did finally start realizing that is like when I started to more get into like the actual plus EV, right? Because yeah, you can you can do you know plus EV off of a a screener and and make money, but you can do it even better if you kind of understand, like, you know, hey, who who's the sharp side here, you know, where is where's the actual line off.

SPEAKER_01 7:35

And was it was it more so like I guess I'm curious, like, was it like something that clicked for you to understand that, or was it more so like a risk thing? Because I I feel like when I hear a lot of stories about people who start off sort of that way, it's like a hurdle to accept like having losing days and you know, like some of the things that are that that you don't have when you're just you know strictly ARBing, or or was it truly like just uh connecting the dots type of thing?

SPEAKER_02 8:01

Um I feel like it was like a little bit of risk management in terms of like I was you know ARBing probably like a unit or two like each time when I would do an ARB. Um and then when I went to EV betting, I think I was doing probably like a quarter of that, or maybe like a fifth of that at the time for like a good solid month or so. Um and I was still doing like the arbitrage too on the side, but so like trying to utilize and I understand the concept of like, you know, hey, get as much of your bankroll out as you can, right? Even in the early stages, right? Because if you can, you know, it's just like compound interest, right? If you can make, you know, 2% each day, like it's gonna, it's gonna balloon up really quick. Um, so like and that's just like from my accounting background, it's like I understand those basics and and whatnot. And so I was trying to apply that, right? So I knew like, okay, I can only do so much ARBs, I can do the plus V, right? As a kind of a supplement, right? Not replace it, but a supplement to what I was already doing.

SPEAKER_01 9:02

Okay, so maybe walk us through like what that early NASCAR model looked like. One of the questions we get on the show all the time is like, how to, how to should I start modeling or how to how to how how should I get into this? I might not be that good at it right away. How did how did you like maybe walk through some of the details? I know I think you're still betting NASCAR now, so obviously like don't have to get into those details, but specifically early on, like how did you think about that problem? Because NASCAR in of itself seems like a a bit more of a challenging modeling problem.

SPEAKER_02 9:31

Yeah, absolutely, right. So there's a lot of like different factors that play into modeling, right? So, first off, you have like different types of tracks. You have road courses, you have super speedways, uh, you have these intermediate one and a half mile ovals, and you even have like short tracks. So that's already a challenge there, right? It's like it's not like football where they play in the same hundred-yard field, right? Or baseball where it's the same field, and like maybe weather just as a factor. Um, so like you can like first is starting as like kind of understanding like, okay, how do you model like a different racetrack? How do how do drivers perform at different racetracks? And then in a sense, you you need the data, right? So, you know, where is your data coming from? Are you gonna use like it all the NASCAR data is like publicly available like on their website? So, you know, you can either go grab it yourself, scrape it, download it, like however you want to figure out how to do that. And then it's kind of in a sense of like, okay, like you kind of when I did it, it was start with like what I know, right? Was okay, like these guys should be the favorite, right? These guys never have a chance to win, right? Should be less than 1%. And if it's the if they're not, something's wrong. Uh and then like then also understanding, okay, like you should. I always checked it to the market, right? Like, and yeah, like at the time there wasn't like Calcian prediction markets. So, like, you know, like top 10 markets with like 40% hold on them on DraftKings and FanDuel was not a good way to like compare that, right? So I always thought like something was wrong. Um, but at the same time, like there is obvious things that, you know, like top 10 long shots, right? Like still to this day, like exist on FanDuel of just like an obvious edge, right? Just because of just the way they model uh like their favorites, right? So when I kind of got into it was kind of just like looking for the very obvious things, right? It wasn't very specific. I'm like, okay, like I'm gonna make sure like I get the winner like odds in line here with the market or making sure I have an edge there. It was more of like just kind of picking off spots in in some areas.

SPEAKER_00 11:38

And then did you did you build did you build a sim for this? Or have you did you start simming it eventually? Because it's kind of like golf where like, you know, there's a lot of it it's not as simple to like price top 10 frequency, top five frequency, like you kind of need to count it, right?

SPEAKER_02 12:00

Yeah, yeah. I mean, like I think for let's see, I probably started modeling it like about a year and a half ago and for a whole year, like everything was done in Google Sheets. And I always comp to like you know, maybe other providers that you know simmed NASCAR or whatnot. And I have like no coding or developer experience. So like if I ever did anything, it always just like because of like Claude or like ChatGPT or just any LLM like trying to produce something. And every time it was like garbage when I just didn't understand what was happening. So I just stuck to like Google Sheets and Excel for like a year, and probably like earlier this year is when I started like starting actually producing like a simulation um with the help of like Claude and like ChatGPT and like just fed it my my stuff, you know, ask questions and like hey, like this is what I'm expecting. Like, can you get to this? Right? Like, how can we get to this from this basic Excel spreadsheet and where we're trying to figure out distributions to actually simulat doing a simulation to figure this out.

SPEAKER_01 13:03

So taking maybe a step out of like NASCAR just to level set like where you are in like life and whatnot at this point. So you're you're starting to take take betting more seriously. Um what like walk us through like how it gets from like some of the beginner stuff of like like you said, promos and and sort of like Arbing and all the EV, to like was there a a specific moment where it it it got much more seriously? And I know I think you mentioned you were an accountant. I don't think you're an accountant anymore. Is that correct? Correct.

SPEAKER_02 13:34

Yeah, I'm full-time, full-time this now.

SPEAKER_01 13:36

Okay, so we want to go through like how that like evolution took place.

SPEAKER_02 13:41

Yeah, yeah. So I think it was like 2024, earlier 2024, um, where like I kind of heard a little bit more about like live live betting, like live Rving, live EV. Um, and I understood like at the time, like I was still doing like pre-game like Rving and Eevee, and it was still kind of like just money on the side that would help pay for like debt or a vacation or something. And then I realized like, okay, like I'm gonna try this out. I see like people are just making a ton of money with like live EV. And I understood in a sense of like, okay, I could commit to like you know, a whole Saturday, and like my hourly rate would be like three times that of what I was doing on like pregame EV or pregame RV. Um, and so it was that point where I started to like focus more in like a very niche like area, right? So I kind of like I was still doing like pregame arb and EV, but I started doing like the live EV um as well. And I think that's where it kind of started clicking on like this could be like a like more of a long-term thing, right? Or I understood like why lines are starting to like get off, right, in situations, whether it's like a latency issue or the uh a feed air or just sportsbook like dis disagreeing in general. Um and it I think it was like that point in early 2024 where I was like seriously starting to consider like doing this full time.

SPEAKER_00 15:08

Live, you know, we had um we had pads on who who talked about about live betting. I think it's you know it's it's kind of in a renaissance with prediction markets because now like you can start to get down live all the time, there's no delays and and all of this. But when you were live betting in 2024 on just the sports books, what did you find was the most common edge? Was it latency, was it disagreement and knowing who was right, or was it kind of like game state situations where you knew the model was not accounting for this one specific thing that could come up like once or twice a night?

unknown 15:53

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 15:54

Or something else. I I wasn't alive better uh in 2024.

SPEAKER_02 15:58

Yeah, so like on the sports books, it always seemed like it was like a just a difference of opinion for for most of the time, especially in like live, especially like early on, like then. Like I think there's it's way more efficient now on sportsbooks and their like their models are are much tighter, even like DraftKings and FanDuel, right? They've invested like so much into their sophistication levels compared to what it was in 2024. Um, but then I felt like it it was a lot of latency, like you know, like somebody would say, like, hey, this was a three-point, and and an and one was made, right? Like what if the books would just leave off the and one for like a good, like maybe 10 or 20 seconds, like a good amount of the time, or just not understand like free throws were gonna happen. Um, so it was things like that, I think, at the time, um, where I was probably picking up spots, but I noticed also like some spots are just bad at modeling in certain situations where maybe like you know, there's two outs, it's the seventh inning, and like, you know, there's there's three guys on base, like bases floated, like, you know, fanDuel may have a very different opinion on that than DraftKings did, right? And and I didn't notice that at the time because I was just like RVing and just taking the risk-free money, but looking back on it, I'm like, okay, like one of them was wrong. And I can look at my data and my results and be like, all right, FanDuel was was put on spot on here, like, you know, 80% of the time.

SPEAKER_01 17:22

So the the interesting thing about to me, about like any sort of like software, and it's you know, like like GP mentioned, we had pads on, and I it sounds like you were primarily using bookie beats at this point for some for some of this. Like the interesting thing about all this is there's can there can be many people who sign up to software and they're gonna have very, very different results. Like Odds Jam, you know, is is one example. Certainly, like this sounds like a different another example. Like, what what what do you think? Um, you you know, it could be confined to live, but you even we can make it broader than that. Like, what do you think separated you from like average odds jam customer who might make a little bit of money, but then you know, that'd be the end of the line, or average bookie beats customer who might, there's probably more serious people who might make more money on average, but like not take it to the scale you've done. So, like, what do you think your superpower you're good at that that separated you in those regards?

SPEAKER_02 18:19

Uh I think the big thing is efficiency. Um, and I always look back at like I've always like made sure I'm a really efficient person and like all the things I do. Like even in my when I was a tax accountant, like I would look for any way to like automate something and like make it faster. And not just so that I would work less, but like to to make the job easier. And and I even like was doing that in some of my my betting, right? So like yes, you could like subscribe to Odge Jam or Bookie Beast or whatever, but like sometimes it's just like organizing things on your screen in a certain way, right? Like if you have if I if I am live betting, right, and we have MLB, um, and then you know, maybe MBA is on and then hockey's on, like there's gonna be so many things appearing on that screen if they're all on the same filter that you're just gonna get confused, right? So it's like almost finding an efficient way of like, okay, how can I break this up to where I understand it, right? And like, yes, like these tools, like you can just sign up for them and grab a filter and and and go, and you'll probably make money. But if you really, really bring the home in those skills, right, is to focus on like a specific area too, right? Like for me, this year was MBA. Um, and even like even on like prediction markets, like when I started getting into those like later like last year, probably like August of 2025, like I after like a month, I was like, this is too slow to click. So like I bought a Stream Deck, which is like where you can hotkey and like program like how many contracts you want to put in. And so I reduced the time to like place a trade from like five seconds to like two seconds, right? Just through that. And I think like that helped too. Uh and you know, that's before I you know got with API access and whatnot, but like I think a lot of people forget like trying to be efficient, right? So like especially when you have to move fast, right? Most of these bets are placed within three to five seconds from when you see them.

SPEAKER_00 20:15

I love the stream deck. Can you can you elaborate like what where did you get that from? I feel like this is some uh alpha here, hashtag alpha for the the audience.

SPEAKER_02 20:24

Yeah, yeah, certainly. So like it's basically a little keypad, right? You can just get it off like Amazon or something. Um, it's called an Elgato Stream Deck, and you can like just hook it up to your computer and you can program like all the buttons to like do different things, right? So you can go into their software and basically be like, okay, like this button is going to type a thousand contracts and it's gonna hit the enter key, right? And then all you have to do at that point is basically one click to place your trade on Calchi, right? So it's like way faster, right? So otherwise you have to type in if you want to do a thousand contracts, one with three zeros, and then enter and then click again, right? So you just it's just like reducing the time from like four seconds to like one to two seconds.

SPEAKER_00 21:10

Did you listen to the clay altar episode?

SPEAKER_02 21:14

I probably did.

SPEAKER_00 21:14

I mean, I think I've listened to who uh who trades directly from the portfolio tab on Call She. Oh yeah, no. What did that so this is the counter to that? And look, you know, all always always are valid and both make money. But yeah, this is I I I like this. I think we'll probably I think Amazon will see a spike in Stream Deck sales.

SPEAKER_01 21:38

You should have got a referral code. Yeah, no, I I like it. It it you know it it shows our guests, you know, can have can have wide uh, you know, you lean into whatever you're good at. Um and yeah, that's fascinating. Because it was interesting when you when you were sort of that was not the answer I expected you to say, just because you had given sort of like the context, and this probably showing my bias. Like, you know, you had said I don't have coding. Experience and all that. So when I think like being efficient and automated, like that's where my head goes. Um, but you're like going, you know, the analog efficiency of getting like you know some extra hardware in there to make you faster. I like it.

SPEAKER_02 22:12

Yeah, yeah. I mean, that's kind of how I start out in Cal She. I don't do it today anymore because you know I have API access. But when I first started, like a month after like clicking around, I was like, I gotta make this faster. Like I'm I'm seeing trades evaporate in front of my in front of my face. And I was like, I I gotta move faster somehow.

SPEAKER_00 22:29

I'll say like the the what you put on your screen is so important. Like that's something I was going over with with Jake, who's our our trader, is like what exactly do we have up like during golf? I'm like, yeah, so I'll have this monitor will be like half this, half that, and like in going through it, and it's just like it's once you have the right setup, it makes everything so much easier when you're actually like trading an event that's going on.

SPEAKER_02 23:01

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean, I I I don't think I could work without my my ultra wide monitors. I mean, if if I had to use a like a like two 27-inch like Dell monitors from like two years ago, I think I'd throw up.

SPEAKER_01 23:16

So people people do like the the setups. Why don't you just you you just give the full sort of setup that that's optimal for you at this point?

SPEAKER_02 23:23

Yeah, yeah. Actually, so I have two ultrawides. I have like a massive like I think 52 inch on the bottom, and on top of it is like a 49-inch one that I bought like several years ago. Um, and then a pretty stout computer with like pretty heavy graphics card in it and whatnot to run those monitors. It's really for that. Uh, because you know they take up so much like um I don't know, what what do you call it, like power and whatnot, but uh nonetheless, it's like having that, right? And just like being able to like look quickly to side to side and not have to move your head to go look at another monitor is even an efficient way.

SPEAKER_00 24:04

Yes, this is facts. This is facts right here. Um, I agree. Like you don't want to have anything too wide. There's you got a stack, you need to go vertical and and horizontal. Um, it sounds like your setup is like uh more efficient version of two monitors on the bottom, two on the top. Um basically yeah. Okay, I I I think that's a good one.

SPEAKER_01 24:28

I'm getting monitor logged here for sure. I'm like the boomer corporate guy just with his two monitors. All right, I I went, I don't, I don't know who was I don't I I don't know if it was UGP who said you know the number of monitors is inverse to well that was the Rufus thing.

SPEAKER_00 24:44

Yeah, Rufus was like on his laptop. He Rufus is like, yeah, I only use a laptop and you know he makes more money than all of us on this call. So I guess uh you know, I guess there's like like like you said, SP, you know, everybody can do it differently in their own way. Um okay, so you're okay, so we're in live betting with the sportsbooks. Do you is that when you went full time? Did you go full time before prediction markets were around?

SPEAKER_02 25:12

Oh yeah, yeah. So let me kind of back up a little bit. Then so like when I started live betting, that was like early 2024. And then after like three months of doing that, I just understood like I was making way more per hour. And like, you know, like I was like, like I talked to my wife, I was like, I'm gonna quit my six-figure job, and I want to to do this, and I think like it's worth it, right? Like, um, and I also didn't love my job at the time, so that was kind of helpful to to want to transition to that. Um, but that was like early 2024. So I've been doing this whole time, a little over two two years now. Um but it was it was mostly because of light betting.

SPEAKER_01 25:52

And how did how did you think about, you know, I hear that you were making more at the time, like per hour, you know, in that moment. How did you think about the sort of like future prospects of it? You're obviously like a young guy. Like, how did you think about this decision as like a long-term decision?

SPEAKER_02 26:09

Yeah, yeah. So like when I like was thinking about it, I was like, okay, I said to my wife and myself, like, I think this is a million dollar opportunity, right? And I'm like, we're like, I'm never gonna make a million dollars like in the job I am as a tax accountant. Even like, you know, even if I got the highest role of like vice president or something like they are not making that, right? Like, like, and that's a grind to get there. Like, obviously, this is a grind too, but I was like, I'm also, you know, not even 30, right? So like I I had the opportunity in front of me to try this, right? And and see if it worked out, and if it didn't, like I still have a degree to fall back on and and see what can happen from there. Um, but it took a a good amount of like two months to think through it and walk through it and make sure like this is what I wanted to do.

SPEAKER_00 27:00

It's tough. I mean, it's it's even if the numbers are are really good, like it always feels like it's uh a big leap of faith. And you know, nobody's gonna pat you on the back and tell you congrats for being a professional gambler, everyone's gonna think you're crazy. So yeah, you really have to have that, like uh you have to know it's the right choice.

SPEAKER_01 27:22

Um yeah, and for you, you you were coming from an industry that you know you have to take, I believe you have to take like certain exams, and obviously your degree was in it. It's it's it's like part of your identity is probably wrapped in uh into it, whether like you want it or not, you know, when you make that effort to become an accountant or or any profession where you know there's there's a lot of effort into to getting there, right?

SPEAKER_02 27:44

Yeah, absolutely. I mean you go to college and like yeah, like this is what you feel like you were destined to do, and then it's like you get like five, six years into the career and like, hmm, maybe this is not what I love.

SPEAKER_00 27:58

Maybe I love picking off DraftKings in the fourth quarter. Yeah. Um, all right. So you're you're live your live betting. Are you also model or like you're running your NASCAR model this whole time while you're live betting? Um, correct?

SPEAKER_02 28:18

Uh kind of on and off, right? I mean, like the opportunities were so low on like sportsbooks because limits are so low, and like I basically found out through like getting another account or like working through somebody else that like accounts get limited after like after the first NASCAR bet. So like I like stopped like kind of like you know focusing on that a little bit. Um, but I was still like maintaining it and updating it, but never really like betting hard off of it.

SPEAKER_00 28:45

Got it. Yeah, that that that's an important lesson I think we all learn. It's like you could have a model, you spend a lot of time on it, you really enjoy it, but sometimes like the opportunity cost is is really, really high of kind of betting this this thing, and uh you know, you can do it for fun if you want, but you know, this is also a job, so it's uh that that's a crossroads. I I find like you know, I find that's tough. I find people who want to do this recreationally, but like be sharp and have fun, like that sometimes is a great project for them. Like keep them at, you know, make a NASCAR model, still bet into books and whatnot. But you know, I think if you're going going full time, you know, that that's the mindset, right? Is like have to go to the highest opportunity at the time.

SPEAKER_01 29:38

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 29:39

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 29:40

How how did you, you know, I I I guess I asked about like the long-term viability. Like, how did you I assume even you know, before you you um you went full time, you had experienced some of like the roadblocks that sports betting um you have in terms of just like scalability and all of that? Like obviously don't want you to share anything you don't want to share or incriminating or anything, but like how did you think about like that aspect of the business? Did you you felt comfortable you know with that part, you know, at before you had had left to go full time, or or how did you think about that?

SPEAKER_02 30:13

Yeah, absolutely. Like I was already, you know, fully limited on like most of my pretty like soft accounts, so you know, Hard Rock, Gambi, um you know, those ones bet 365, you get like 10 bets and then you're toast there. But um the the reality is like yeah, I was already kind of full blown into that. And like I had other outs and whatnot that had gotten, you know, kind of ruined or limited at that point too. So I was already through the ringer and had a pretty good idea of like what to expect in the future, right? Um, and this is before like you know, any idea that PMs would be a thing, right? Like, so I thought like I'm gonna have to keep doing the the sportsbook route, right? And so that's what I was still doing at the time. And so, but I felt pretty confident that, you know, like okay, I I could continue this like in the way it was. Um maybe it won't last forever, maybe it will, uh, maybe it'll change. Um, but at the time, like I was already kind of through the ringer and understood like you know, limits and um, you know, what it takes to to kind of scale to the to the next level.

SPEAKER_00 31:19

Yeah, that that makes sense. I think um maybe let's start talking about PMs, because you know, obviously that seems to be are you are you at all on traditional sportsbooks anymore?

SPEAKER_02 31:32

Or is it all I still have them, so you know, have Sandle and and Bookmaker and some of like the off source, but man, like 98% is is PMs.

SPEAKER_00 31:43

Yeah, yeah, that that makes sense. That I feel like that's kind of a a common story these days. Um so yeah, how did you how did you first hear about PMs? What was your initial, you know, what was your initial um concept of the the opportunity? Did you think it was maybe you know not worth it at first, or did you see like immediately, oh, this could be pretty big?

SPEAKER_02 32:10

Well, my first run in with PMs was betting um what the what will the temperature be in Chicago? Uh in the Were you in the airport? No, I would I I was not like I had I saw like an ad for Galaxies, but I downloaded it one. There wasn't really like a ton of sports stuff on there. It was early 2025, I think. And uh I yeah, I put in like a hundred bucks just to mess around and see how it worked and whatnot. Put some stuff on weather, politics, uh, and then then I sort of like putting more in over like that year and like doing some futures stuff, right? Because you know, they had a lot more futures contracts than they did to like you know, sport to sport each each day and each week. Um, so I was kind of focused on that over the over like the year of 2025. And then I think like probably about August or so, um, you know, after like the 90% deduction loss came into fact and that looked like it's gonna stay and not get overturned, I started seriously considering like, okay, I know as a tax accountant, like there could be some tax advantages, right, to using PMs over sportsbooks, right? Um, and so I was like, okay, I'm gonna take the whole month of August, right? I'm gonna focus heavily on PMs, physically Calci at the time, and see what I can do. And this is before like Calci is on any like tools like bookie beats or odds jam or pick the odds or anything. So it's like I was just manually comparing lines, right? Um, and that month alone was was the best month I ever had uh in terms of profit. So I knew at that point I was like, there's there's something here and I need to focus on it.

SPEAKER_01 33:53

So maybe let's just jump to today and then like we'll just jump around to go to go back and forth. So currently, just to give a flavor, like are is it primarily calci or are you on other production markets as well?

SPEAKER_02 34:05

Yeah, I'm pretty much on all of them. So calci is probably like obviously where you know 90, well, I would say probably 80% of the volume is for me. And then poly market, definitely still using like Novig Profit X, uh, and them as well. But yeah, I mean Calci is kind of like the bread and butter for me. There's just there's just so much opportunity there in the markets.

SPEAKER_01 34:26

And what percentage would you say is like live on those sites these days?

SPEAKER_02 34:31

Oh, that's that's a good question because I feel like my my profit right is is very different in terms of like the my volume, right? So most of my volume is is probably let's see, probably 30% of my volume is probably like market making and like RFQ. Um but like 90% of my profit is from live on on prediction markets. So like it's it's it's it doesn't really always like correlate, right? Like and and and it's it also fluxes throughout the year, right, depending on the support.

SPEAKER_00 35:04

Is it 30%? Is uh is that when you say like 90% of your profits live, that 30% that's market making RFQ, is that what you're doing live? Are those the same thing? Like 30% of your volume is doing 90% of your profit, or is this live taking?

SPEAKER_02 35:25

So yeah, let me kind of back up a little bit. So like live taking, right, is like where most of my profit has come in.

SPEAKER_00 35:31

Got it. Right.

SPEAKER_02 35:32

So that's what people see on the Calcutta leaderboard and and and whatnot. So, but in terms of volume, right, it's actually like much, much lower, right? So like it's probably only 30, 40 percent of my total volume of of all my trades, right? Uh, for live betting.

SPEAKER_00 35:48

Got it, got it. Okay. So you get so you you hop on Call Sheet and you make the most you've ever made in a month. Good reason to start to to go all in. Um, what did that mean? You know, you're like, okay, I need to focus here. Like, what was what was next? What did you start prioritizing? What did you start building?

SPEAKER_02 36:09

So, like the first thing I did is I knew like any partnerships are had where you know I was, you know, working with other people to to get down on things was was ending those and like moving my bankroll like into CalChi and whatnot, just because it was like it was spread out like everywhere and whatnot, and just it just felt like a mess at the time. And I was like, okay, like I can just start like moving all this into Calchi or like you know, where where I feel like these live edges could exist on PMs, and it kind of just took off from there, right? It's like I put 80% in and then I kind of left some in like FanDuel and the offshores of like my personal accounts and just kind of hammered from there and and did some arbitrage for a while to kind of get the understanding of like how sharp is market makers on Calci, right? Are they like are they always ahead? Like how often are they wrong and kind of feeling out like the difference there at first?

SPEAKER_01 37:07

What were some of those maybe like learning hurdles or challenges early on on trading live on like prediction markets versus the sports books? Were there were there major differences or learnings? Or you know, do you have an example of of a story you could share where you're like, oh, this is not the same thing as I was dealing with before?

SPEAKER_02 37:27

Yeah. So like obviously the the UI uh on Calci is not like a sports book, right? So like you like there's like it's not the Orioles minus one and a half, right? It's Baltimore wins by one and a half runs, yes or no. So like just in my mind, like that took me like a good two or three weeks to like figure out like the wording of like what is a plus spread and the minus spread. And um, yeah, I definitely made some massive mistakes where I thought like I was betting like a like a big favorite or something, or like a heavy underdog, and it was like the complete opposite, just because like I wasn't in using American odds and whatnot, or like any like extension to convert like the like the percentages to American odds. Like it was always me like just trying to calculate it on the fly.

SPEAKER_00 38:17

Using like the ace ace odds converter or whatever, just saying like yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 38:23

I literally have that bookmarked.

SPEAKER_00 38:25

Yeah, we we've all been there. Do you feel like you have uh do you do you think you have it basically memorized, like the important numbers or no?

SPEAKER_02 38:33

I would say no. No. I mean like there was a good like month where I like tried and then like Bookie Beats built like a Chrome extension like for people to use, and like it just kind of did it all for me.

SPEAKER_00 38:49

May have to get that.

SPEAKER_02 38:51

Um yes, it is probably available.

SPEAKER_00 38:54

Okay, sweet. Um okay, so you're you're now up and running, you got your bankroll over. I think that's an interesting thing because it's like the transition from operating in terms of like having a lot of betting partners and whatnot to this, like your bankroll is like you're like, I don't really know what it is, where it is, like how liquid it is, like, and so yeah, starting to pull it in, starting to realize, you know, are am I you know, am I getting stiffed? You know, what what's going on? That's a whole process. Um, but it's a nice at the end of it to have it all like under your account where you can click. It's just the best, best feeling in the world. So um, but I want to I want to talk, you mentioned RFQs. Um we had a question about what percentage of your volume was was RFQs. Was that something that you know obviously you're you're seeing some success live taking? So what was um what was the impetus to try RFQs? I mean, one thing that I can tell from talking to you is you're always willing to kind of try, you know, okay, I'm gonna throw some money in Calci and just see, you know, the weather thing, or I'm gonna just test out some arbs to see who's sharp and all this. So was it just kind of like, you know, I gotta give this a try and see what it is?

SPEAKER_02 40:15

It was kind of like that in a way. Um, I I I had noticed like there was a good amount of times when I was like live taking um that I don't think it was like a market maker like that was putting up a line. Um, I think sometimes it was maybe like a rec bet that got kind of like not taken on the other side or just left up on the market, because it would always be for like low liquidity, you know, like maybe like 25 bucks or something. Um, or maybe it was a market maker like testing out like at a at a low level and just making mistakes here and there. Um but like it would it was a good like combination of like like that, but then also um just curiosity in a sense because I knew other people were are are making a ton from it, and there's like a good amount of rec flow on Couchi. So right now I've been doing it for probably about a month and a half um of like RFQ and like it's been going well, but it was really, really hard, really, really hard and to to like to get it to a point to where I felt okay and confident to put like a sizable amount like up uh and and like try to really like collect the flow and whatnot. Um that was kind of scary because like there's there's times where like I was like I'm not sure if this is a a sharp that that hit me for 5k contracts or if it's just you know a big recreational better. So um just yeah, but it was really curiosity that kind of got me into it because I always want to kind of take it to the next level, in my opinion.

SPEAKER_01 41:46

The thing I love about this is like I think it's it's uh what a time to be alive that you know someone who you know self-admitted like limited coding experience can can can roll up and and start quoting RFQs. Like I think it's it's fascinating the how like what how much credit you need to give AI and like some of the the LLMs to the rise of the prediction markets. Because like do you know how like I I always think like do you know how good the RFQ would be if there was no AI? Like if and you were someone who who was able to actually like code up a solution, like how uncompetitive that would be, that would be insane. Right.

SPEAKER_00 42:26

But now it's just like you'd be retired. I know.

SPEAKER_01 42:28

Well yeah, no, I I know it's still like hard. Like I'm not not downplaying it, you know, even with the AI stuff. It's hard to to zone it in. And I want to talk a little bit more about you know some of the testing, but it's just like a different world. So how how how did you think about how maybe maybe I'm gonna ask a broader question? Like when you were describing most of your profits were from live taking, like I think the one of the things I always balance is like, should I lean more into the stuff that's like generating all the profits while also like evaluating new opportunities and not being stuck in my way? So, like, how how did you think about that dichotomy in this? Like, were you sort of do you feel like you're sort of tapped out on like the live taking and there wasn't more to invest in? Or you just saw RFQs as like such a big opportunity?

SPEAKER_02 43:13

Yeah, well, like live taking, right? Like it's it's very different for every sport, right? So like MBA, for example, you know, it's like every play really, really like changes like how the lines move and and operate, right? Whereas like an MLB or even like soccer, like you're waiting for like a key moment, like for something to change. And but like in basketball or even football, right? You're getting like an opportunity for the for the odds to dramatically shift like almost every time the the ball is in play, right? Um, so I kind of knew like when when like NBA season was coming to a close and you know, just even football too, like I needed to start thinking about like what am I gonna do in the future because I don't think like I can do what I'm doing now on a different sport. Right. It felt like I was very confident in like the, you know, like football and and and and basketball. But when it came to like uh MLB, I was like, there looks like there's no opportunities unless you're court hiding, um, which felt like I'm I'm I I'm not doing that. So um I I need to think about what I was gonna do. And so I kind of used AI at first to like figure out if I could quote RFQ, and I did. And then I made a bunch of mistakes, so I hired a dev um who who's who's done a lot of the work for me. And thankfully, you know, I'm kind of handling in like the risk and and the management side there. But I I think for me, it's like I I know like I'm not gonna be able to be a live taker on every sport, right? It's it's a very niche thing for me and kind of stay in my lane.

SPEAKER_00 44:51

Yeah, that that's that's interesting about like the opportunity live. I I I assume I've always assumed like live taking, you want yeah, a lot of events, you want the events to swing the probability a lot. Like that baseball situation, you were like, you know, bottom of the seventh, three on two outs, you know, or something like that. Just such a high-leverage spot where like books could differ or whatnot. So you would see like the RFQs as more stable, more predictable, more yeah, like more consistent almost.

SPEAKER_02 45:25

Yeah. I mean, that's exactly how I'm kind of thinking of it. Is it's kind of like a more routine thing, and you know, I can it's it's kind of like you know, I have a dashboard that I look at and just kind of stare at and like and sort of like what I'm seeing is what I would expect to to get on like a normal trading day, right? Uh whereas like live is very different. Like you like you gotta manage risk really, really quick. Whereas like RFQ, you're kind of just kind of keeping an eye on it, right? You're you're ensuring that the flow you're getting is is what you expect. And if there's anything out of the ordinary, you better check into it.

SPEAKER_00 46:01

Maybe maybe what be oh sorry, SP. No, you go ahead. I was gonna say, I think this could be interesting if if you might give like a maybe like a brief two to three minute uh pep talk on how you know somebody who d who's gonna be using majority LLMs for their programming could get up on RFQs. What are some like things they should avoid and things they should definitely do if they're trying to get on with limited coding experience?

SPEAKER_02 46:33

Oh yeah, that's like that's something I struggled with quite a bit. So like when I first started, probably like like trying to build something on my own, um, I I like what I tried to do was basically ask me like, okay, this is what I want, right? Tell me what to do, right? And that didn't go well, like the first like go around, right? So what I instead did is like, okay, let's I ask kind of like Claude and like ChatGPT together and like build me out a plan, right? Build me out like this type of infrastructure, right? And then you know, give it ideas, right? So like I want you're like, I want a Bloomberg terminal, right, for sports betting. And it will kind of understand in some ways like what you're saying and try to get to that spot and whatnot. And you know, LLMs are so smart now that they can just go read, you know, the Couchy API docs and you know get you rolling in a matter of like minutes, right? And you know, to check your balance and simple things like that. But for me, I think uh looking back on like where I started with that was um be a little bit more focused on what you're asking the LLM, right? So um and have an idea of what you want, right? Um, a lot of people like I think they just open up Claude and be like, hey, I want to do RFQ on Calci. Uh help me build something. Um it's way more than that, right? You need to build out like risk management. Um, you need to figure out like, you know, how how are you gonna get the odds that you want to trade? You know, are you gonna get optic odds? Are you gonna scrape them yourself? Are you gonna use Calci? Like all these different things. So you kind of need a better framework, right? So if you can kind of create the framework, get the idea, then you can kind of start going into the LLM and kind of telling it, okay, here's what I want. Can you help me design this? And then from there, probably test it out in these spots, right? Don't just don't just turn it on and just like expect to like print money, right? You got a lot of risk management to do on the other side of that.

SPEAKER_01 48:32

So one of the things you mentioned in that was you, I think you said you worked with like a developer or hired a developer to help with some of this stuff. Like, how do you is that the extent of like people you've worked with beyond like you know, betting partners or whatever, where the relationship is maybe more clear? Are you so I guess what I'm asking, like, do you do this primarily alone? Have you considered working with others if you do do this alone? Um or how have you thought about like bringing in more help support as just the opportunity I think with prediction markets is just bigger than ever for like an individual person. How have you thought about that?

SPEAKER_02 49:06

Yeah, so I'm kind of like a lone wolf because I'm like the only employee of like my actual LLC. Um so like the dev I I work with, he's just a contractor. Um, and so he's he's kind of helped me build like the trading tools um or even just the automation for like live trading, right? Because you know, I had to evolve from like using the stream deck that I mentioned earlier ago to like actually trading on the API, right, for live. You know, so I reduced the time from five seconds with manual clickling, two seconds to the stream deck, and then you know, a tenth of a second with the API, right? So uh it just evolves quicker like that, right? So um I I like I just don't have enough coding experience to make those kind of sophisticated tools and make them work well, right? Like I can ask Claude to make something and uh it breaks a week later and I just give up on the project and move on, right? Like it's like so frustrating for me. I would just rather like like find somebody who knows what they're doing and like they can understand what I want and we can like make that work together. And that's kind of what I did and and and and finding somebody.

SPEAKER_00 50:15

I was just curious about your live, your live taking, like your automated taking. So you've obviously like you had a you had a live taking strategy that you had with your stream deck that you're clicking that was profitable, and then you had to kind of shift that onto the API. What were some um what were some surprises there that you didn't expect to have to think through? Like what were some of the key points of taking a profitable taking strategy that you as a human can execute and then like telling a machine this is what you need to be doing?

SPEAKER_02 50:48

Okay, yeah, this this is this is a good one because when I first got API hookup to do like live, like it wasn't necessarily automated, I was still like clicking a button to like send it to the API, but I I had like the most horrible week ever. I'm like, what did I do? Like I literally just click made uh like you know, use software to like lose money, like faster, like more efficiently, you know, you can move it even faster, yeah. Yeah, so I was like really concerned. Like, did like did I like not need to do this? Should I just stick to what I was doing? And then I realized like, okay, like not everything you see on Calci, like that pops up on like bookie beats or a tool or whatnot, is actually EV, right? Because of like court sighting, right? So um I had to get more sophisticated at that point of like, okay, like now I can be faster, but how can I be more sophisticated to ensure like what I'm actually clicking into is actually a good trade, right? Because of, you know, is it is the market maker wrong because of latency, right? Did they not update a line that you know they're not aware of something that happened in the game, or are they always ahead, which is like you know, 90% of the time, uh, because of court sighting, and just in general, like, you know, that's just how it works when there's no latency. Um, so yeah, it's it it went from I was able to procure my edge faster, but then I also had to start taking like stopping, like almost like risk management of like I can only take so much right before it may not be an edge. It could be just be detrimental.

SPEAKER_01 52:22

So I don't know if you you specifically touched on this, but like do you have any strategies where it's like you're not clicking anything and it's just taking automated today?

SPEAKER_02 52:32

No, I don't take anything like purely automated. Um, everything that I do is like for live betting or trading in general, is is is actually me clicking a physical button and sending the trade.

SPEAKER_01 52:43

Because I was gonna ask, like, how do you sleep at at night if you know your things are being taken?

SPEAKER_02 52:49

Like no, no, definitely not. It's it is all like while the game's happening.

SPEAKER_00 52:54

Okay, got it, got it. Yeah, yeah. I mean, that that's do you think you'll ever are you like considering transitioning to some specific automated taking strategies?

SPEAKER_02 53:05

Um, just because of no, like how much I know like I've made off of like live taking, um, I've I and like the ROI that comes with it, I don't think I'll make that flip yet. Um like it's a it is pretty there's a lot of variance in it because of like like the odds like are sometimes like that I think are good is like plus a thousand, you know, or like 10% chance like for it to win. Um, but it could be like 25% EV in terms of like what I'm looking at, right? So um sometimes it's like um I would rather not be on the other side of the table yet, like because I know like if there's other people making those mistakes, or even like SIG or even CalG Trading in general, like I'm probably prone to those mistakes like 10 times more, right? They have way better infrastructure than I do, and like I you know would not be prepared to to flip the switch and become like a uh a live maker.

SPEAKER_00 54:01

Yeah, I mean live making is not fun. I mean sometimes it is, but like yeah, it's it's quite difficult. I and you're you're obviously doing very well, so no, no need to mess with that. Um I want to did you have any more? I wanted to kind of talk about the coaching program briefly, SP, unless you had anything else.

SPEAKER_01 54:25

No, the only other thing I saw there was jot down notes, and I don't I know nothing about this. I appreciate you two for for handling the notes. I've had a very busy um couple days. What what is this note about you doubling your bankroll in May of 2026? Did you tweet something about it? Yeah, that's that came before the coaching. Right, right, right. So to maybe talk about about that month just because at least the notes I have jotted down the outline is is you realize you were underbetting. So like I think that's that's always a topic of conversation on this podcast, is like knowing how much to bet.

SPEAKER_00 54:52

So he hates people who don't gamble big enough.

SPEAKER_01 54:55

Yeah. Yeah, no, I mean you know, people like to make fun of me that I, you know, I say everybody's bankruptcy, all the resources in the entire universe or whatever I say. But uh yeah, so talk about how you uh how you how you docked through this decision, the the good month you have, and then how you you know fig if you figured out you were underbetting or or whatever happened in this time period.

SPEAKER_02 55:17

Yeah, so like the the the edge of it like I had in May and why I kind of went harder kind of goes back to what I did in January. And so I'm gonna talk a little bit of like like why I think like why how I came to a conclusion that it was such a good edge for me. Um, and then like maybe like how people can maybe apply this in like their own betting too. So in January is where like I got like the live API access, right? Where I could click a physical button, send the trade to Calci, and uh, and that's where I was like, okay, I need to be get I need to get more sophisticated, right? I need to understand like why these are like why why these edges exist, right? Because it's you know 80% courts fighting. Um so what a lot of Eevee and our betters talk about is closing line value, right? So what I tried to do is replicate closing line closing line value in a live game, right? So um I kind of stopped betting for like a whole probably two weeks or so in like January, and I basically built out like a tracker using Claude that when I placed a trade on Calci, it would calculate POV after five, 10, and 20 seconds. And then from there, right, after collecting like you know uh potential like 4,000 trades that I would have made, right? I found out that 80 to 85% of the time I was getting negative CLV after like 5, 10, and 20 seconds. Um so I was like, okay, well, I can't keep doing that. I'm just gonna lose money, right? Because uh EV live is not the same as like getting CLB. Like if you're if you're live betting, you want to get CLB like instantly, right? And you don't want to be the CLB to because you took all the equity either, right? Like you want the line to actually move the other way. Um, so from that subset of trades, right? Um, I found out like you know, there's a good probably 10 or 15% where it's like the market makers were just wrong, like just like dead wrong. Um, and you know, that was like I took those out and it was anywhere from probably like it should have been 10 to 15% ROI. Um so from that point, I started to look at like game state, right, and and figuring out like when did these trades occur. And it really wasn't conclusive for me when I did looked like after the game, like and figured out like here's a timestamp of when I placed a trade or would have placed a trade versus what happened in the game. Um so what I had to do was I basically didn't trade for a whole weekend, I just like studied like NBA games, right? And and kind of figured out like, okay, there's spots where uh market makers are are just like not sure of what happened in the game, right? Yeah, it could be like foul trouble, it could be a um, you know, hey, a three was made and it actually was a two and got reviewed, and just like all these little things and um that you have to kind of like add up, right? And so when I kind of came to the conclusion like with the the live CLV, right, for about 4,000 trades, um, I focused up pretty hard on ensuring that if this is truly 10 to 15% ROI, I need to be like three times or five X my units, right? So in May, I basically was betting like you know, for my bankroll, like five or six units at the time. Uh and and that was like per game on like spreads, totals, and like any other markets I saw. And uh it it paid off, uh thankfully, but it like that was like May was probably the most challenging month I had because I was definitely in spots where I was a little worried um of like how much I had out on the game, but at the same time, I was like, I know like I know the edge here. I I know how much I can make and I need to go hard, right? Because, you know, hey, basketball is ending in three weeks. You know, I'm not I'm not gonna get this back until uh you know November, October.

SPEAKER_00 59:10

I love it. I I want to ask about kind of like your thesis on calculating live CLV because it's something that I actually did to um figure out how much we sucked at market making high live. So but but it is interesting, right? Because yeah, you you basically want to know like you need to know what the price is um in the next five seconds, but you want to make sure that it wasn't moved by necessarily a big order. You might not want to have that window be too long because something else can happen in the game and and whatnot. And like are you taking kind of some average of the the trades after you um made your trade or made like when you would have traded? You know, how how did you kind of settle on something that you felt like reliably measured CLV um live in a way that it gave you useful information?

SPEAKER_02 1:00:15

Yeah, so like the there was a lot of like issues where like I would get CLV in like five seconds on the trade, but like 10 seconds and 20 seconds was like the complete opposite way, right? And that's like stuff where I like threw it out of the data, like this doesn't make sense, right? So you kind of remove those. Um, but there was ones that was like, okay, like CLV like instantly after five, and then it stayed for 10, and then it got better after 20, right? And those were like, okay, like these this is the ones where I need to like focus at. Like this is this is the good area. And like the problem areas is always like where the data didn't make sense, right? Like maybe you got CLV after 10 seconds, but five and twenty are not, right? Like, you know, and it's not like I wasn't tracking specifically like what happened at that time in the game or what orders came in or the amount. I was literally just tracking like the amount of if I was getting it at 50 cents, what was the those ticks in five, ten, and twenty? Was it 45, was it 55, you know, 58 cents, just ensuring like I was grabbing that data. So it was pretty simple, just like the the start of it. Uh, where I got sophisticated though was me like afterwards like trying to sift through it all and understand like why why it was happening.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:28

And for MBA, I imagine it's it's more difficult than for hockey, for example, because in hockey you have one thing that can kind of two things that can happen. You can a penalty or a goal, basically. And in MBA, like you could have two things happen in the 10 second span, or you could have two things happen in the 15 second span, right? Like, how did you deal with that?

SPEAKER_02 1:01:52

Yeah, so that's where like I I feel like I've started like curating an edge is kind of understanding like those specific situations where market makers are not understanding what's happening, right? Um, and and and trying to take advantage of of them and and and get down as much as I can quickly, as long as like the orders are up and whatnot. Um but yeah, you're you're right in terms of like, yeah, so much can happen in like five to ten seconds. So like and sometimes like if you go back and look at like the feed after the game, whether it's like on ESPN or something, like it probably won't make sense because sometimes like you could have something where uh a two is overturned into a three, right? Or uh a shooting foul was not actually a shooting foul and it got overturned, right, during review or something. And like that's not all direct, unless you're paying attention to the game in real time, right? If you are, then you can absolutely like you know keep your eyes on it and understand what's happening. Um, so it's it's kind of a mix of like, yeah, you you have to be on top of of what's happening, um, at the same time, like you you can't always just go back and look at what happened after the game. It's sometimes just not enough information.

SPEAKER_00 1:03:04

And I've one more last oh sorry. Uh can I ask one last question on the CLV topic, or will everyone turn the podcast off?

SPEAKER_02 1:03:12

They might turn it off, but I like it too.

SPEAKER_00 1:03:14

Okay. Um, have you tried to uh basically like merge the game data or the play-by-play data with the call she trading? Um the call she trade data, like timestamp wise?

SPEAKER_02 1:03:31

No, I actually haven't. So everything that I've done like after like where I just got like the CLV tracker in place, um, and then it started placing live trades based on what I thought was wrong using like bookie beats and whatnot. Um it was really just like paying attention to like the publicly available data, like that's that happens during a game, whether it's like on the sports books or like the real app, um, you know, it's like I don't have access for support radar um and things like that. So anything that was publicly available at the time is what I was like paying attention to.

SPEAKER_00 1:04:04

Got it.

SPEAKER_01 1:04:07

Did you want to? I I think the last thing we were gonna ask, you do have a lot of questions. I think the good news is a lot of our questions was hit were hit just in the you know the discussion. So we could probably, you know, I think we've addressed some of those. But I think the last thing we wanted to ask you about was you are fairly public on Twitter and you post, uh, we were sort of joking before the podcast, like actual real things as opposed to 95% of um you know people on gambling Twitter who you know we have on this podcast do not post like real things, uh meaning like potentially helpful. And one of the things I think you've done in the past is like you had a coaching program. So I don't know a ton about it, but I think you you recently said you were you were going to end that. So maybe give a little bit of context on how that started, your decision to end it, and you know, like just your general um thoughts around like being like public or like this stuff outside of betting, like the social aspects, the uh you know, business, all that sort of stuff.

SPEAKER_02 1:05:04

Yeah. So like my coaching like program, yeah, I did end it recently. Um, but the the reason I kind of started it looking back on it was like it was something that I really enjoyed. I just like teaching others and like helping them like understand like how you can make money at this. And then also like there's so many people that like lose tons of money, right? And and it's like maybe they have a curiosity of like, like, hey, I see you're successful, like can I make money at this too? And it's like, yeah, you can, like, I'll help you out. Obviously, for a fee, I'm not gonna tell you everything I know and and learned and accumulated, but for those people who like wanted to learn more, I was willing to invest in. And for me, like being more public and open is like, I do want to be a little more like true to myself in a way, right? Like if if I'm gonna be a professional gambler or professional trader, like I don't want to hide behind and and like be scared of like what people may think of me, right. I want to be like okay in that skin and whatnot. And I think that's why I've been more public. Um, but like the whole aspect of the coaching thing was like I was happy to like help people and like I saw that like some people were really into it and really enjoyed like you know having those 101s. And then also like there was times I learned from others, like that COV idea, like that that was somebody else who brought up something um for a completely different like sport on like sportsbooks. And I'm like, wait a minute, like I I might apply this to Calci. So like in some ways, like there is alpha gain and just having those conversations and relations too. Like it wasn't just me coaching others, but like sometimes bouncing around ideas and like you know, building relationships like beyond the coaching.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:46

Yeah, I think that that's one of the best parts about doing this podcast or just being kind of a little more public in the space where you people, you know, you're open to talking to people and and whatnot, is that just having conversations with sharp people who want to win at this unlocks stuff in your brain too. Like it could not, you you know, it could have no like no, it could not be a direct question of like, hey, how do you do XYZ? But literally just something someone says to you while you're having a conversation with somebody who thinks thoughtfully about this, like can create something that's worth like a hundred thousand dollars, you know, on the spot or whatever. And it's so good. I think it's great because it's also fun to talk about this stuff, so it's a win-win. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:07:36

Yeah, it makes total sense to me. I mean, like we've talked about it. It doesn't take like one it only takes one good idea from one person to like make a lot of effort worth it in sword speding. It's like like a outsized returns for like small ideas. So um, you know, like coaching someone, you know, whether for fee or not, like ultimately that pro person is probably like also grateful and like appreciates you. And so that that's also like you know, uh if you're not even gonna take like the altruistic, you seem like a genuinely good guy. I'm maybe like more evil and not have that altruistic uh altruistic thing. But even if you're thinking about it that way, like it it probably pays off, you know, like long term to um to help people out. I think a lot of a lot of what comes around and goes around. So yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:08:26

And I assume you you decided to kind of wind it down just because of how much work and opportunity there is on on PMs from a trading standpoint.

SPEAKER_02 1:08:35

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, like when I when I wound it down, it was kind of when I started up RFQs and whatnot and trying to focus on global lower and the market making. And then also just a time perspective, like two kids and a wife. Like I was kind of happy to let it go just because some of that time back, um, especially during the summer.

SPEAKER_01 1:08:53

That was one other thing. We're gonna get to the questions I promised. One other thing I I had wanted to ask earlier on is you know, like the live stuff does seem somewhat time intensive, at least from the outsider, of just like being in front of the screen and especially if you're like still clicking. Um, like how how do you balance that? Like today and long term, you mentioned you have a wife and two kids. Like, how do you think about that?

SPEAKER_02 1:09:15

Yeah, so like I definitely go pretty hard, like when like all the sports are on or in full season of like you know, October to probably February. And then yeah, obviously MBA goes pretty farther too, and that's where kind of the bread and butter was. So my focus may be different in the future. Like in the past, like I would just be on like when on Saturdays, when it was like all football, all basketball, right? Like every team's playing and just trying to hit every line I can. But I think like looking towards in the future that I'll probably have a more of a focus area, right? Like if I'm if I feel like more confident about live betting NBA, then I'll probably spend the evenings doing that. And like on Saturdays, it's not gonna be important for me to be on for college football, right? Like, yeah, I probably could do both, right? But it's like I don't want to spend 60, 70 hours a week and burn myself out and then not have time to spend my family.

SPEAKER_00 1:10:16

For sure. Yeah, I think I think that's that's uh something we probably are all striving for is finding like that that balance as well. And it's important, it's important. Um questions?

SPEAKER_01 1:10:32

Let's do it. I can ask the first one and we'll try and skip over the ones we can at least mention it, but the ones that we like I said, we've already touched on. We can uh spend less time just because want to make sure we have time to to get through everybody's um that maybe we didn't touch on as much. So first from gamblers. I don't know how it's pronounced, but something like that. Is live sweating positive or negative EV? So you know you're clearly alive better. Like, are the games on? Are we just looking are we just looking at screens? Like what is happen what is happening with the actual sweating?

SPEAKER_02 1:11:04

Yeah. So first off, I think this person is specifically referencing like specific Discord chat and bookiebeats Discord. Um so I will say to if that's what he's referring to, then I'll say it's probably negative EV because there's so much chatter in there that it's almost like uh you're kind of not paying attention to the game that's happening or like the actual like Bookie Beats screener.

SPEAKER_00 1:11:26

Um live sweat is the Discord chat?

SPEAKER_02 1:11:29

Yes, actual Discord. Okay, got it, got it. But at the same time, if if we're referring to live sweating, uh yeah, I definitely sweat some some bets, um, especially in May.

SPEAKER_01 1:11:40

That's like the real alpha is to get a bot in there to distract a fellow Bookie Beats better.

SPEAKER_02 1:11:48

Hang on, I'm making I'm making a note now.

SPEAKER_00 1:11:53

Um we have okay, we got a question from Virgin Rifle. Uh will whales who bet on wrecks move over to PMs? Uh will that hurt rec books a lot? Maybe that they will have to limit people less to keep bigger betters.

SPEAKER_01 1:12:13

And and I I guess when you're answering this question, I have, I believe I've seen you be like somewhat vocal on Twitter about like limits and and stuff like that. So maybe just broadly touch on that as well, like how you how you think about that.

SPEAKER_02 1:12:26

Yeah. So I don't think it's gonna change at all, to be honest. I I don't think sportsbooks are gonna stop limiting people or like lessen up on the limits, right? Um so I think like you know, people moving to PMs, like I don't think that's gonna hurt Recbooks at all. I think they're gonna have even more profit because you know, sharps are moving away. I mean, they're still gonna exist, right? There's still a ton of people who are are hitting them pretty hard, but I don't think Recbooks are gonna change. I think they're probably gonna be more focused on how do they get a piece of the pie for prediction markets.

SPEAKER_01 1:13:00

And and do you think like do you think anything around I know there's been just like a bunch of news about it lately, and I I'm pretty sure I've seen you tweet things about it. Like, do you think anything's ever gonna change with with like the limits? Or I know the Massachusetts thing and all of that, but you just you just sort of think it is what it is.

SPEAKER_02 1:13:17

I think it is what it is. I think the sports books are gonna be the sports books. I mean, that's you know, they're they're not gonna profit if they or have good profits if they uh just allow all the sharps to just smack them for as much as they want.

SPEAKER_01 1:13:31

Fair enough. I can ask the next one, and I think we we slightly touched on this, so I I wanna we can if there's anything l else you have to say on this one, um, I can I can actually probably combine two that we sort of touch on. Metro Mics was how's your shift from manual trading to automated trading help your journey? I think we touched on some of that. The other thing that uh Flip asked, which I actually don't think we wrote down, was like the make versus take percentage. Um and I think we we touched on both of those, but anything related to those two questions, manual to automated or making taking that you wanted to touch on that we didn't that we didn't already?

SPEAKER_02 1:14:06

Yeah. So when I started shifting from like manually, like you know, clicking bets or using the stream deck to like the automated, like there's so much opportunity or like potential EV bets that like come up that aren't truly EV, um, that you kind of have to be careful and start like managing it as like a portfolio, right? You gotta take a step back and be like, okay, like I already have five minutes out on this game and it's only the third quarter. Uh maybe I shouldn't bet anymore on this, right? Or maybe I just stop looking at overs. And like even though overs have been EV the entire time, like maybe I need to consider unders or you know, a different strategy. So like for me, switching from manual to automated has made me more like less of okay, I know the strategy and more of like managing a portfolio every time there's a game on, right? And and paying attention to my my exposure and like okay, if this lands on 216, I'm I'm broke. Uh, but if it lands, you know, like anywhere above that, I'm gonna be okay.

SPEAKER_00 1:15:07

Yeah, yeah. That is yeah, that that's actually I don't know if there's a that when Henry came on the video version of the podcast a long time ago, Big Buck Hunter, he showed like Novig's version of that, like what happens on each like point score, like what happens at each total, like if each team scores what certain points. Yeah, yeah, that that is key. Um okay, Jack Hevey. Has the Calci Leaderboard helped or hurt your overall performance? Or is paying attention to the leaderboard even plus EV?

SPEAKER_02 1:15:42

Ooh, this is a good one. So being on the Calci Leaderboard has helped me because it's built like connections that I probably wouldn't have had, right? So people reaching out, the coaching stuff, right? Like I think that's helped my overall performance because like I said, I've learned things from other people that I would have never even thought of, right? And like, or just overall being more public has helped me um, you know, build trust in like an actual developer to help me, right? Like those specific people aren't going to reach out unless they kind of see how good you're actually doing, right? You like for me, it's kind of like you know, being on a leaderboard and and and paying attention to that isn't that important, but it's really like the outcome of it of terms of like, hey, like people recognize you and trust you and understand that you're you're doing well, uh, they want to work with you and you'll you'll get better information than you would rather than hiding behind the the shadows or whatnot or staying, you know, kind of private.

SPEAKER_01 1:16:48

Does it tilt you like any worse, like being public? Like knowing that you know you also have like a you're you're on Twitter, you post, like you're not like like does it tilt you worse when you're running bad or no?

SPEAKER_02 1:17:00

No, not really. No. Like wow. That's good.

SPEAKER_01 1:17:04

I mean, I'm just the human side of me, I'm always like, oh, now everybody knows like I'm running bad. You know, like that that's how I feel, at least a lot of times. Because I I agree with everything you said as the positive, and to me, you know, the positives outweigh the the negative. That's why you know I'm on there, but there definitely aren't downsides, I think.

SPEAKER_00 1:17:21

Yeah, you want to be able to lose in peace. My God.

SPEAKER_02 1:17:24

Yeah. Well, I bet the whole month of March, like I it was not profitable. Like, I had like a 30% downswing in my bankroll, and then like you know, I was never on there, and then May, I was on there every day, and they're like, What are you doing differently?

SPEAKER_00 1:17:37

Right. Everyone's like, Oh, what are you doing? What's up, dude? Yeah, you're just getting DMs.

SPEAKER_01 1:17:40

Hey man, yeah. Those inner circle requests are good. Oh please stop them.

SPEAKER_00 1:17:48

You can turn, I think you can turn that, you can like opt out, but I do see like whenever somebody on the leaderboard like posts something, like usually it's some troll of some like Spencer Pratt market, but then there's just like a million people being like, get me in that inner circle, bro. Yeah. Uh okay, similar vein, absolutely alpha. Do you see any moral ambiguity by becoming the market maker? I think this is probably talking about RFQs, and essentially a sports book as you soft limit certain accounts or like uh taker IDs and take money from predictors. Good use of language there. I'm sure that Flupp and Henry would be happy with that. Uh, some of whom could be problem gamblers. Is there anything besides advertising or marketing that makes you different than FanDuel?

SPEAKER_02 1:18:43

Yeah, I appreciate this question from Alpha. I I chat with him quite a bit, um, and he's in many of the Discords that I am. Um shout out to Shag Me, by the way. Um, he's been there. But yeah, so like I have struggled with that a little bit of like making RFQs. Like, yeah, I could probably lower the threshold of like my potential holder or whatnot to like a pretty good number considering how much like recreational flow there is for like the World Cup. Um, but at the same time, I'm like like I don't want to like just like take 20% hold because I can, you know, or just like you know, really ramp it up. Like I do want to be like fair to an extent. Um, and then yeah, like you like yeah, like there's the taker IDs and whatnot that you can whether you want to soft limit, you know, say like anything like from this person, like, yeah, I'm gonna adjust their odds before I accept it to you know 5% different. Um, or you know, I'm not gonna take anything from them. Like, yeah, you have to act like a sports book in some way, like doing RFQ. Obviously, you can't do that for like straight market making, but when it comes to RF, RFQ, like, yeah, like kind of do want to try to like be fair and give good odds, uh, but at the same time, like bring it to make money.

SPEAKER_01 1:20:00

Yeah, does this keep you up at night cheaping? I I I don't get the sense that it does.

SPEAKER_00 1:20:05

Wow. Do you do you mean that as a compliment or as a as a um you can take it however you like? Sure, sure. Um, I'll take it as a compliment. No, I mean it it's obviously it's crossed my mind. I'm like a human being at the end of the day, but I think some of it comes with like A, I'm completely, you know, I I'm completely fine with what FanDuel does. Like I like, you know, for me, like that's part one of the question. So like I guess that would rule me out of really having too much of an issue. But then I'd say like part two is you know, I've always I've always played these games, you know, since I was a kid playing poker, and like I've all you know, I've had tons of tons of risk on the line. Like I've gone basically broke in spots, like and it wasn't a spot where you know I couldn't really just like be like, oh, that's not fair, like I need need my money back or whatever. Like I've always been willing to battle, and I'm happy to battle in like an open order book, and part of that is like people will um be problem gamblers in there, as same with poker and everything, but like you know, I love I love the game, and you gotta play the game for meaningful stakes at the end of the day, or else I wouldn't like it as much. So yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:21:36

I mean I've kind of thought about this too in terms of like just real life of like there's always gonna be people who are gonna be kind of like not as I guess competitive, right? Like they don't care like um when they put money into Robin Hood, like are they gonna invest in stocks or options, right? Like at the end of the day, like the same people are probably on Calci too, right? Where they're in it to hopefully make money. Um, but you know, maybe maybe they're not as sophisticated as you know, as as others are.

SPEAKER_00 1:22:07

What about USP?

SPEAKER_01 1:22:10

Oh, I mean, I think I I I I I generally agree with your premise that like you know, for the vast majority of these people, like effectively you could frame it differently. You get you all you were taking risks to provide an entertainment product to a massive like people could roll their eyes at that, but that's like at the end of the day, what any bookmaking really is. Um, so like I have no moral qualms about it. Like clearly, I I don't want Calci like trying to recruit like problem gamblers. Like, I hope Calci gets problem gamblers off the site. Um, like I don't want that. So, like, but yeah, I mean, no, I uh it's it's a game. Everybody's adult, you know, everybody can play the game if they want.

SPEAKER_02 1:22:52

So and you have sharp takers.

SPEAKER_01 1:22:54

Yeah, hashtag Sharp Takers, man. I think that's that's a perfect uh segue from Liam. Um, which role uh which role is more of a paranoid grind over decaying edge, sharp taker or maker at scale on PMs? So which one like do you think if we fast forward to like three three years from now, you're like, this is what's made this really, really hard for me?

SPEAKER_02 1:23:21

Yeah, so I think like I'm more paranoid of being a maker at scale because I haven't dived into it enough. And I'm I'm for me, like I'm very confident about some of the edges like that I've had on on PMs so far for being a Sharp taker, especially like for our live betting. Um so like there's a confidence level of like I know what I'm gonna be able to do probably next year, right? Like, and I think there's gonna be even more liquidity on PMs, right? Because now we have polymarket, right? Um, we're gonna hopefully have a little more liquidity on like ProfitX and Novic and then Kalsky. So I think there's gonna be a lot more competing hands here in the future. Um, and to an extent, like like all the market makers are battling for rec flow, right? So at the same time, they make mistakes, and I think I could probably do very well as a sharp taker in the future. But as for being a like a maker, like that has me more concerned, right? Because I don't have enough experience in that yet.

SPEAKER_00 1:24:23

I also think being a maker takes like a bigger investment up front, too. So like if you are a maker and you're doing well, and then you start to do less well, you're footing a bigger bill. You're not as nimble as a sharp taker who can kind of hop around and switch what they're doing faster, doesn't need as much, you know, infrastructure. So that also kind of I feel like supports your your view.

SPEAKER_03 1:24:52

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:24:54

Um promo cactus, one of my favorites. What level of state prohibition on PMs would would it take for you to rethink your current residency?

SPEAKER_02 1:25:06

This is a tough one. Um like I am I am so like near like my family, and I've always lived in like Indiana my entire life. So like if like the governor or some of like enacted legislation tomorrow that like you know did away with Calfi and Polymarket or any PMs in general, like I think I would probably take a good six-month break or something and really think about what I want to do. Right. I don't think I'd pick up and pack my bags and go to Illinois or um Ohio or Kentucky, like you know, the nearby states. Like I think I would take some time to think about, okay, is this like what I want to actually do? Because that's a risk, right? Like if if PMs get eliminated somehow tomorrow, right, or even next week or the next month, like um I need to think of another avenue. Um, so I think for me, like I would just take a big break and think about, you know, what can I do with the the money I've made?

SPEAKER_00 1:26:02

It's kind of freaky because we saw it happen today, right? Or yesterday? Yeah, Michigan. Michigan, yeah. Yeah. I mean yeah. What's your answer, John? Well, I mean, I would I wouldn't move. I think we could figure out like some automated trading stuff that doesn't require me to move, but yeah, I mean I I would have to. If like if we're talking about like I actually have to be in a different state to do, I mean, yeah, I guess we would have to move for a little bit, I guess. We probably I'd want to like keep the house and try and rent it out and then really make it a uh priority that I'm coming back here because I love uh South Carolina, but I can keep the plants watered. You can come over, yeah. You come over water the one plant, and uh but yeah, I mean I think I would see it as like okay, obviously we're pushing for a couple years. Um, it's unprecedented. I think like like you said, Steven, like the opportunity, it just wasn't available. I was never gonna make this much money like playing poker or or whatever, or like so you kind of gotta hit these opportunities when they come up. It's probably could honestly be once in a lifetime opportunity. So yeah, I'd I'd I'd I'd let it rip for a little bit more and then uh figure out where I want to live.

SPEAKER_01 1:27:31

Next one from I don't know if it's pronounced Deutsch, sounds German, maybe Netherlands, Dutch, I'm not sure. Um, what steps do you take to protect yourself from getting drained a la night capital? So I asked earlier, you're not you're still clicking to to take. So that's one step you're taking. Yep. Anything else like you can share as it relates to like RFQs and some of the I know you touched on like the risk management and stuff, but anything more you could share there about you know, like how to How you sleep at night when you have you know bots sort of running in the background.

SPEAKER_02 1:28:03

Yeah, actually I sleep at night because I don't have bots running in the background at night. Um I literally only only keep them on um when like I have access to it. So if I'm gonna be at my computer, um my my quota's running for for RFQ, right? And checking liabilities and ensuring like the flow I'm seeing is what I would expect. And then also like um if I'm out, like sometimes I will will leave on bots and whatnot and check on my phone, like because it's like run through a server and whatnot. So I can always log in and check it there. But if I'm on like vacation or something, like everything's turned off, right? Like I am I'm away from it. Um I'm not I'm not I'm not working on it, I'm not checking it. Um and then also I yeah, definitely not at night. I am not that comfortable yet.

SPEAKER_00 1:28:51

It's the worst night's sleep you'll ever get that first night. Yeah. Um yeah, that's nice. It sounds like you get to like enjoy your vacation.

SPEAKER_02 1:29:03

Yeah, do you must keep things uh keep the lights on the entire time, huh?

SPEAKER_00 1:29:07

Well, yeah, but it's like I I you know there's other people, but so yeah, I just like have to get out of the habit of like wanting to know what's happening, right? You know, because there's other stuff. There's always gonna be something going on, but I don't necessarily need to look at it. That's just like a me problem. Uh what do we have?

SPEAKER_01 1:29:29

Who is I can ask the next one from Chris. Given that PMs are often first movers live, can you talk about your mental process when deciding when to take or how you might factor that into building an automated process to avoid constantly getting got by courtsiders? You touched on this too, like sort of like how you how you did some of that analysis of um, like I don't know if it was necessarily court siders or just you know latency on that on what you talked about, that 85%, 15% earlier. But like anything else live takers should should think about about how to avoid that adverse selection court sighting issue.

SPEAKER_02 1:30:04

Yeah. So like back when I did my CLV tracker, um, and I said like maybe like 80% of it was like negative CLV. Like it was first finding, you know, like there's they're set in each like spot of like 10 to 15% where it's like these aren't court sighs, right? Like, like or or they are court siders and they suck at court sighting. Uh like you know, like they they bet plus 15 and a half, like way more than it should have been, and they just leave the order up like after the play is finished or something. Like it's it can be things like that that happen a lot, right? So my my mental process when I'm taking live like is really focusing on like okay, like why does this line exist? Right? Like is Spurs spreads popping because like they missed the they missed the hoop, right? And like they didn't make make a bucket, or is it because like um you know they they got an offensive foul? Like it's kind of paying attention in you know in real time of understanding like this is why this is popping up, is understanding the game state and like the game theory behind of you know how much should the should the line move off of an offensive foul, right? Should it be two points? All right, is it one point? Is it the first quarter, the fourth quarter? Like, yeah, all that really um affects like my my decision making, right? Like a 10% edge in the fourth quarter is a lot bigger than the first quarter, in my opinion, right? Because of just, you know, you you're probably gonna see uh a bigger CLB, right, right there in that next 20 seconds if you're able to grab it. So um yeah, that's that's really like kind of my decision process. And like I do all that usually within like three to five seconds.

SPEAKER_00 1:31:45

Damn. That is uh that's some quick thinking. Yeah. Um, we got Dick Mojave. What percentage of your volume is ARBing as of right now? Like obviously you started ARBing, but like as it stands now, are you still you know completing the ARB?

SPEAKER_02 1:32:05

No, I don't do any ARBing at this point. Everything I do is is basically EV or market making. Um, I mean obviously I'll ARB if like my position's too big or something, or like like hedge, like there's a a spot in the Super Bowl where I basically emptied out my polymarket account on like a a a line that was like 20% EV, and it was like way too much to write it as like an EV bet. Um, but I knew it was a Super Bowl so I can just hedge the other side on Calci and like did a like a potential middle on it. Um so yeah, like I don't don't ARB specifically, or like, but I will hedge when when it's necessary.

SPEAKER_01 1:32:42

I hope that wasn't will Cardi B perform at the halftime. That would have been a really bad if you had uh done bad.

SPEAKER_00 1:32:50

That would get known as the Cardi middle, which would be like getting rules cocked on the metal or something.

SPEAKER_02 1:32:56

No, thankfully it was under 42 and a half.

SPEAKER_00 1:33:00

That seems that seems like it definitely has.

SPEAKER_01 1:33:05

Um, next one from Water Down EV. Would you rather keep betting on PMs or be a recbook merchant? Uh assuming you had access to unlimited accounts. Like, yeah, I guess it's an interesting like which one have you have you enjoyed like the challenges or aspects of one more than the other?

SPEAKER_02 1:33:24

PMs all the way, 100%. I am never going back to um if PMs shut down like tomorrow and I didn't have access to Calci, I I I'd probably just walk away and find something else to do with with the money I've made. Um I I feel like like the whole process with PMs and Calci has just made it like much more enjoyable and and just easier to manage things to.

SPEAKER_01 1:33:48

Yeah. Maybe the PMs are like a big psy-op by uh you know big sports books. Big sports book to just like you know make it like very enjoyable and easy, and then everybody will just quit, you know, if they get ruled illegal. Wow.

SPEAKER_00 1:34:05

Wow. They're like the the honeypot. Like they get all of us in, they just shut it down with the AGA. They actually decide to do something.

SPEAKER_01 1:34:14

Yeah, people like you know, John have to move to Canada, you know, he's he's gone. You know, Steven's over here, he just quits, he hangs it up, he lives a nice quiet life.

SPEAKER_00 1:34:26

Mulching the backyard. Yeah. That's what you'll be doing. You'll just work a job.

SPEAKER_01 1:34:31

I mean, I'll be doing that regardless.

SPEAKER_00 1:34:32

Yeah, that's fair. Um K Matt. From someone for someone transitioning from sports betting to other markets, I assume this is PMs. Uh, are there any recommended readings, videos, podcasts, or followings you have for someone that cannot invest significant time but enjoys the process, aka the work as much as the results. So they want to, you know, part of part of the value they're getting is like building the NASCAR model, it seems.

SPEAKER_02 1:35:07

Yeah, I would say first, if you're gonna listen to anything, uh listen to this podcast.

SPEAKER_00 1:35:11

That's damn straight.

SPEAKER_02 1:35:14

I mean, there's been so many, there's been so many little things that like some of your guests have like dropped that it's like I'd like it wasn't like a ton of alpha, but it was like these little tidbits of like, oh, this is how I could think about this, like, or think about how I'd build a model, or like words I've never heard because nobody talks about how they build models on Twitter. Like no one no one talks about that unless there's probably like there's probably like four accounts uh you know that like truly talk about their modeling and whatnot. And like finding them is probably impossible. But nonetheless, like it's listening to to podcasts like this, and then also like in a sense of being curious, right? We're at a point where like LLMs are so good that if you had an idea, right, and you've thought about it a little bit, you could go to Claude or Chat GPT and be like, here's my idea, like help me think about it and just use it as something to brainstorm. Um, so I mean that's really kind of you know, I think where I've learned a lot of my alpha is either here or just kind of brainstorming with uh LLMs.

SPEAKER_00 1:36:16

I like brainstorming with LLMs too. That's a good interactive way to uh to learn. Are you are you do you do you do that, SP? You kick ideas back and forth with Claude or Codex or whoever.

SPEAKER_01 1:36:29

Oh, for sure. I mean, I think my general workflow is like here's my idea of how I'm thinking about this problem. You know, first poke holes in it and then tell me like different ways I could approach it, or like I I find that that's better than truly going just like raw in terms of like what should I do? Um, but you can get like if you're truly brainstorming, you can get some interesting things like by not biasing it at at all. Um and I think that aspect of it is is something that has gotten better recently, and it's probably something I'm not doing enough, if I'm being honest. Because like in the beginning, it was not good at that, you know, the the AI stuff was not good at no.

SPEAKER_00 1:37:09

I always want to agree with you too. So if you ever like I I found that if you I still find this too, like if you it's like this fine line between like being like, hey, let's focus here, like, do you think this will work? But if you're like you're very specific, it's like wow, it's like really smart. You're really smart. That's exactly what we should do. And I'm like, well, do you have any other ideas? So it's like walking that that line, it's it's still difficult AI, I find.

SPEAKER_02 1:37:36

Yeah. Well, when Fable 5 came out, and then they took it away from us, unfortunately. Uh, that was kind of brutal. But yeah, like I had it rebuild like my whole NASCAR model uh and like in in like 24 hours, and it actually did it pretty well and even gave me some ideas that I'd never even thought of. So I I hope we get that back someday.

SPEAKER_00 1:37:56

Yeah, that would be nice. There is a prediction market out there, right? It's like when will Fable 5 come back? I don't I haven't uh I haven't hedged anything with it, but you know, there's a good edge. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:38:09

We did we did gloss our question. I think it's good to do it now. Russ, what Russ's question, what tools and programming language would you recommend? I know you had said like you don't, you're not, you're mostly like an AI coder. So maybe like you could at answer like what your AI of choice have you tried a bunch of them out? I know you mentioned a couple of them throughout the show, but maybe like instead of programming language, unless you have thoughts on that, I'm guessing more it's more about like your AI setup.

SPEAKER_02 1:38:33

Yeah, it's it's more of the AI setup than anything. It's like I have no idea the difference between C and like Python. Like, like if Plot starts doing something, I'm just like, okay, it's working, it's good, right? And maybe I'll ask it and try to figure out like what it is. But at the end of the day, like I know nothing like what's the best like resources like the dev I've contracted and worked with, like he handles all that, and he does a really good job, and um kind of put all the trust in him for that. But when it comes down to like just kind of building smaller things, like I'm probably probably using cloud code most of the time, and then all the brainstorming um I kind of do in like the actual like cloud like desktop version or just like in the Chrome browser, then also like Chat GPT has gotten better at like actually um producing like the ability to like give a project idea, right? So like if you wanted to lay out like this whole like project idea, you can tell it'd be like, hey, like I want to build this. Uh give me a prompt for an LLM that could build this out, and it'll like get really in-depth. And then you have to tone it down and look at it and whatnot. But yeah, LLMs are just so good, like you gotta use them at these days.

SPEAKER_00 1:39:48

Uh we can go to Bill's question. So Bill at Bill Rawls, how much of your betting slash trading is done with bookie beats versus uh market making on the PMs? Or I I guess even I'd be interested in to know like what percent is is bookie beats at the time and and what what isn't.

SPEAKER_02 1:40:09

Yeah, so like when we're like in the season of like when we have basketball and football, like bookie beats and like the live trading is definitely like probably 80 to 90 percent of my volume, uh just because like I'm trying to get down as much as I can or hedge positions quickly, and just there's so much volume on PMs, and like there's there's a lot of opportunity and also a lot of mistakes to make too. When it comes to like the slow season, when like now, right? Like definitely like 90% of my volume is probably market making and RFQ, um, and just kind of focusing a little bit more there. But when it comes back when we get football and basketball back, it'll definitely be a little different.

SPEAKER_00 1:40:52

I think the next one was probably from me, so we'll skip that one. Um we talked about Hayden had a question if you have a coding background or you know how much you're trading or automating is with Claude slash chat GPT. I think uh we we covered that one. So we can go to Grisflow's question. So he said if you had a small bank roll around 10 to 15,000 and you were limited to offshore books, PMs, and exchanges. So I guess exchanges in this case, he's maybe talking about like Novig, which isn't I I don't know. Um, what would your strategy be to scale? Market make, top-down bet, play niche markets with low volume but higher edge, or something else?

SPEAKER_02 1:41:40

I would say like in order to kind of like market make, I I feel like you do you need to have a really solid understanding of top-down in some ways, because you like by being by being a sharp taker, you kind of understand like what it takes to kind of stop sharp taking or limit it to a degree, right? You can't cut it out completely on on PMs and exchanges and whatnot, but you can start to be aware and notice patterns. So I think for somebody with that size of a bankroll of 10 to 15,000 is to probably top down bet and probably not do niche markets because even with the offshores, like they're starting to limit, right? And like if you're gonna do player props or whatnot, like they'll probably just take it away, um, or like you know, limit your account. Um so if you're gonna but if you're gonna be on like Calchi and like any exchanges, like yeah, you probably could focus on the niche markets, right? Like maybe you maybe you find something in first quarter spreads or something, uh like or or first half spreads that are like consistently off somewhere and like and it's got decent liquidity, and it's like good for your size of bankroll that focus on there, right? Like I focus on MBA because it was high liquidity and it was in line with my bankroll. So probably something that you know you're you're comfortable and confident in too, too.

SPEAKER_01 1:43:04

Yeah, makes sense. I if you if you want my opinion on the the question, Grizzlow, I think it's 100% the niche markets with low volume on Cal Sheet today. Like there's tons of markets where the prices are just like I I don't know if you're limited by only sports, but if you're not, like there's there's tons of markets where the the prices are just like wrong. And it reminds me of like promotional stuff in the sports book, honestly, where it's just like people who are not trying at all. Whereas in the sports, you are competing against people who are trying much harder. Um, so that would be my two cents. Last question. Yeah, no, we got two more. One, I guess, is an inside joke. I think you're gonna have to fill us in on the last, maybe last serious question. What would you say is the most important skill to possess when betting on a prediction market such as Cal Shi Poly? If you could put it in order of importantness, uh, speed, whether that's actually navigating to the bet or a different way to manually get the bet in, game state awareness, knowing your counterparty, example, what bets are a good bet to take first betting into sharp money or anything else. Um, so I know you touched on a couple of these aspects in terms of speed. I think that's still my favorite story of the pod. You having like a separate device which I didn't even know exists to click faster. Um but order these things in terms of like at least for you. Obviously, different people are gonna have different things that are important, but at least for you, like how how would you rank these?

SPEAKER_02 1:44:31

Yeah, so we're gonna talk about like PM specifically. Like one is I would say I would put speed at the top, right? Uh, and efficiency is because even if you have an edge and like good game state awareness or knowing your counterparty, you're gonna get beat to that, like that trade every time if you're not fast. And like it doesn't even matter. So um, so I do think speed is probably the most important, right? And I think that's kind of like where like an edge, like my edge actually exists, is just being able to execute really quickly on like live trading. And then I would say probably second is knowing the counterparty, right? And what I mean by that is it like courtsighted or not court-sided, and then also like why is this up? Like, is it 25k of liquidity or is it $25, right? Like, if you're betting into 25k, you should probably just take another two or three seconds to you know ensure that if you're betting into that, is it a big mistake or is it you know hedging off risk because they have too much on overs, right? Like you need to kind of be able to understand some of that. And obviously it's not always apparent, right? But 25k is different than $25 of liquidity. And then probably third, lastly, is is game state awareness, right? Like for PMs, like you you can't just blindly bet like and live trade into them using like support books as like you know, kind of like the the odds that you're going up against because PMs are just way faster.

SPEAKER_00 1:46:03

Yeah, that all checks out. Okay, the last question from Gibbs McGee. This is important, so you gotta get thinking out on. Do you think that OG Weenie should touch grass? Yes or no?

SPEAKER_02 1:46:21

This is a tough one. I've really thought about this when you guys put it on the list and he asked a question on Twitter earlier today. Um, and I think no, because he has stares. I don't know. He'll get it. He'll he'll under it. He'll he'll understand. It's an inside joke, but he'll he'll understand. I'm gonna make him listen to this.

SPEAKER_00 1:46:40

Okay, he has to listen all the way to the one hour 51. Exactly. Um fair enough. Okay, OG, we need no no grass touching for you. Um so we have you've listened, we have the final thoughts section. So there's two parts to the final thoughts. So one is what's a hot take that you have that most of Sharp gambling Twitter would disagree with.

SPEAKER_02 1:47:05

Okay, maybe this isn't a hot take, but uh like let's we'll we'll see if it is. I think most EV and R betters should stop trying to originate and just become a better operator.

SPEAKER_00 1:47:19

SP?

SPEAKER_01 1:47:21

I feel like that's a hot take. I mean, I I feel like um I I feel like most people fall into the syndrome that I have and not you have, GP, uh of like always chasing the shinier thing. Um that's why I was asking about some of the questions about um like what how to double down on the efforts that are making the most money about and also think of like new opportunities. So I and I think in general, there's like a um it's glamorized, like the quote unquote originator like on gambling Twitter. Like I think there's certain people who probably like just like look down on different ways of making money. Uh and so I I I I think certainly with a certain segment, like obviously not like someone who's been sort of top-downing for like years probably doesn't have that view, but I think like there would be a large segment of gambling Twitter who would have that view.

SPEAKER_00 1:48:16

Steven, what's your uh what's your thesis here?

SPEAKER_02 1:48:20

So I think like like what uh SP has kind of mentioned is like a lot of EVR betters that have used like OzGam or Pick the Oz or whatnot. And now we these days we even have like Calci leaderboards, right? And it's like, okay, like all these people up top are probably not doing top-down betting, right? Like there's some sort of origination or market making. Um and I think a lot of like them look at that and they're like, I'm gonna do that, right? I'm gonna start like market making on Calci and PMs and like create a model and what uh and it's like I've tried to do that and it's not easy, right? Like if you're good at EV and R betting, you can find a way to do that on exchanges and PMs, right? Like, and not that like you should try to not not or sorry, not try to originate, but maybe just become a better operator, like managing your bankroll, right? Like maybe your bankroll is best utilized as as EV uh or R being on you know PMs or things like that. Um, whereas like originating like takes a lot of time, right? Like and and upkeep and it's a different challenge. And I think a lot of people have tried to do that that have been in the EV and R space and just find that it's doesn't work for them and they they burned up all of that time. Uh but rather I think you should just try to operate where you're at and try to be more efficient in and in that space that you're already in.

SPEAKER_00 1:49:49

So like I I think it could be true for any of us, but like there's always so much more you can squeeze out of of what you have than you really think, right?

SPEAKER_02 1:49:58

Yeah.

unknown 1:50:00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:50:01

Yeah, I think that's probably probably true. I think what you said about the bankroll to me is is the key. It's like if you have five grand and you're in 2022, like obviously you should just do bonuses. You know, it's it it's so so much of it is dictated by like some of it's your skill set, but also it's like like you said, like how am I uh turning this over the most efficiently? And you get to a point where maybe yeah, you may have to originate or market make at a certain size. Like SIG can't necessarily um make a case to not be a market maker for their bankroll size, but like you know, could it differs. Um and then we have the Bayesian update of the week. So this is something that you've uh updated your belief on. It could be change your mind on, it could be like me tripling down on Apple TV being the best streaming service. You know, there's lots of ways, ways we could take it. Um SP, did you have one?

SPEAKER_01 1:51:08

I I didn't have one coming in, but I I did I did think of one while while I was in this. And you know, it seems right because I have a fellow dad now on the pod. You know, you always hear about dad strength. And I know I've only you know been a dad for for like a month now. The the dad strength, it it doesn't come from nowhere, it comes from you're always picking stuff up when you're a dad, right? And that's it, it has a very logical reason. You're just always carrying stuff, whether it's a kid, a car seat, whatever. So now I I understand where dad strength comes from. Like that that extra grip strength, it's just you're always holding stuff and and and your arms are tired. So so yeah, I'm I'm looking forward to the newfound, newfound strength that I'm you know developing here.

SPEAKER_00 1:51:48

Well, I'll certainly not try and fight you even more now. Um, I had one on decaf coffee. I used to think like there's zero use at all for decaf coffee. Um, I've come around to the concept of the half calf, which is like brewing uh some coffee with half decaf, half regular, and it just allows you to drink more coffee. As somebody who likes the act of drinking coffee, this has actually been uh wonderful, and I totally get decaf. I don't think decaf on its own is still particularly attractive to me, but I think it holds an important place now.

SPEAKER_01 1:52:34

We need like a heat map of the number of Bayesian updates of yours that are related to TV and or drinks at this point. It's when you have two hobbies, SP, and it's it's I mean, as soon as you said it was a drink, I'm just you know, my head went to the flat water situation. It went to the flat water situation again. So uh yeah, yeah, it's good. Steven, do you have one for for us?

SPEAKER_02 1:52:58

I do. Um and it revolves around the World Cup. So I used to like despise watching soccer. I feel like it's so boring. It's just like nine minutes of guys running up and down the field to maybe score one goal or two, or maybe draw zero-zero, like half the tournament spin. Um, but now that I've like watched like almost every game, I actually think soccer is probably one of like the top three sports to like watch on TV. Um, so not not I didn't think I'd say that like a month ago, um, but it's it's it's pretty fun to watch.

SPEAKER_01 1:53:31

How much of that though is informed by like you know prediction market betting?

SPEAKER_02 1:53:37

Uh I mean can you separate the two? I think I could. I think I could. Like I uh except I think maybe it's because it's in the US or something this year too. It's like there's a little bit more of a rally around it, you know, like it's it's in our home country.

SPEAKER_00 1:53:50

So do you think that you would call it? Do you think you would consider watching the Premier League or or something after this?

SPEAKER_02 1:54:01

Maybe. I don't know yet. I don't like like I don't watch a lot of sports, but it's like fair. I always watch NASCAR, always watch golf. Uh and also like I've been watching the World Cup. I've watched like every game.

SPEAKER_00 1:54:14

So you love a tournament style thing.

SPEAKER_02 1:54:17

I do, yes, that's what it is. That's what it is.

SPEAKER_00 1:54:19

Yeah, so the Premier League won't do it for you at all. It's like very non-tournament. It's like at the end they just play each other a bunch, and then whoever has the most cumulative points wins.

SPEAKER_01 1:54:31

Yeah, yeah. No cry. The ultimate update was was you know, taking paternity leave during the World Cup. You know, that that's the ultimate like luckbox of of running good here.

SPEAKER_00 1:54:42

I was gonna say that might not even I don't feel like that's an update. I feel like you knew that I was gonna be sick.

SPEAKER_01 1:54:48

I that's fair. I guess the update is realizing like how sick, you know, didn't plan for it, but yeah, how how I I don't know what I'd do all day, you know, honestly.

SPEAKER_00 1:54:58

So this the spacing of the game is the games are amazing. I'm I'm I'm also like very pro World Cup. Were you guys having jitters on that Sunday where there was only one game? What the what was that?

SPEAKER_01 1:55:10

Yeah, I didn't know what to do with myself at night.

SPEAKER_00 1:55:13

That was freaky.

SPEAKER_02 1:55:14

One game on Sunday, and then I looked at the schedule on Monday. I'm like, what is FIFA doing here?

SPEAKER_00 1:55:19

Right, right. You're like, well, it must have been like one wasn't the round of 32 and one one was. Oh no, they were both that. What was going on? Um cool. Well, uh, is it what what uh where where can people find you? I'll we'll put your Twitter link in the uh in the description. I assume people could find you in the the Bookie's Bookie Beats Discord.

SPEAKER_02 1:55:43

Yeah, so you can find me on Twitter. Uh yeah, I'm in the Bookie Beats Discord, and I also kind of launched like a new company and a way uh like like last month, which was just really fun. It revolves around a little bit more market making and whatnot, and kind of expanding upon that. But that's that's just bad. You you can find that in my my Twitter profile and whatnot. And then uh yeah, it's good where you can reach out to me.

SPEAKER_00 1:56:08

Cool. Well, Steven, thanks for thanks for coming on, talking to us for two hours. I know it's uh a significant time commitment, and time is time is money for you. You live takers, you need to get in there and pick off some market makers. So uh we're gonna we're gonna put the market makers back on blast, send you back out there. But yeah, thank thanks for coming on. SP, you have uh you have anything?

SPEAKER_01 1:56:31

No, we really appreciate you coming on. It's it's been fun and yeah. Appreciate all the listeners.

SPEAKER_00 1:56:37

Yeah, thanks for the questions. Uh we'll see you next week.