Non-Technical Traits All Top Bettors Have & ENG v. MEX | Ep 163

The news almost becomes the main topic in this episode, where GP and SP breakdown the record breaking England v. Mexico World Cup game that did most likely over a billion dollars of volume between all markets.

The main topic is a look into what non-technical traits are near-universal amongst top bettors.

0:00 Traits of Top Bettors

28:30 News

1:11:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

The way I was thinking about that game in hindsight as it was going on was like optimal was probably to like deplete your entire bankroll, but like deplete it at the mo like it won you wanted it to be depleted like at kickoff. And for me, I was um I I probably was depleted prior to like earlier than I had wanted, like a couple hours probably.

SPEAKER_02 0:22

Um, what's up everybody? GP SP. We are we're talking today about some some soft skills. This is uh this is our uh I don't know, I feel like this is every every podcast now is talks about like motivation and and whatnot. That's not necessarily what we're talking about today, but we the main topic for today is what are some non-technical skills slash traits that top advantage players, you know, whatever, whatever we're called now in the age of prediction markets, have yeah, I think we we try and have a balanced range here on our on our main topics in terms of like extremely um technical.

SPEAKER_01 1:23

I think you probably know when uh a topic's recommended by me versus versus you, GP, and the difference in the types of topics we recommend for this. Um, I'm I'm excited. I'm excited for today. I when I was writing these down, one of the things I was thinking about was um like I'm curious as you're going through your traits or skills, because like with technical stuff, you know, when we talk about, I think we talk about in ways to get better, like learn something. I think I'm curious if you've when you talk about your skills, if there's anything like you have done or think you can do to actually like get better at some of these things, or they're just innate, because that's sort of what I was thinking about when I was thinking about mine.

SPEAKER_02 2:05

That is a good that is a that's a good question. And you would think I would want to consider that as that's helpful, but I more thought. My main thing was like, are any of these universal? Like, is there one I can put my finger on that like everybody who and I think there's one. Like, I and I'd love to hear your take on like if if uh if you have exceptions to this rule, but I think I I found one kind of like skill slustray.

SPEAKER_01 2:35

What do you think is a universal one?

SPEAKER_02 2:37

Uh non-perfectionist.

SPEAKER_01 2:40

Oh, interesting. That's mine was gonna be competitive. I think probably both that both. I think both probably are universal, honestly. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 2:48

Well, let's just get into it. I mean, do you want me to give my non-perfectionists? Okay. So so this this was the one where I was like, okay, you know, is there anything how I approach this? I kind of tried to think about like people I knew who were who were really top-tier, like um poker, sports betting, you know, prediction markets, all of this, like people who just make an outsized amount of money. We're talking about people in the top 0.1%, you know, of these. Um, and like what are some traits or some skills that I've seen, you know, uh a lot of them have. So the only one I could think of that everybody I knew had was they were non-perfectionists. So like there's this a question we get a lot, SP, on on the show, which is like, you know, I've been doing, you know, I've I've made this model and I back tested it, and I, you know, optimized the params, and uh, you know, I've done all these steps, and like when do I know I should bet it? And I think like it's not really like everybody I think that I know who's kind of at a high, high level, is like, you should have been betting it, you should have been betting it a month ago, you know. Like, it's just like you kind of, you know, you're like, okay, it's kind of good enough. I'll I'll put it out there and I'll just just learn instead of like over-optimizing and sitting and sitting out um for a long period of time before you get something exactly right. I think there's just so much in this space that you need to kind of say, uh, you know, this is fine, this is good enough, like let's see. Um and if you don't have that, you start missing out on being early to good opportunities, which I think SP that's like one of the things that you're best at, which is like you'll get in there on a new market that has the most opportunity, and just you know, do what you can in a in a couple days, you know, to build something that works for that. Um, and I just there's just very little you can do in this space, I think, if you're you're truly, you know, like have very um high perfectionist tendencies of wanting everything to be right, you know, wanting everything to be perfect. Being afraid to be wrong, I think is something that comes with being a perfectionist too. Um, so I think it kind of blends nicely with some other good traits, but like a perfectionist is is afraid to be wrong. Whereas like I don't think many top gamblers have any fear of of being wrong since you lose so much, right? Like it's not, it's kind of like beaten out of you. So I've I've really searched and I I can't think of somebody I know who's like a true perfectionist and just the absolute crusher in the space. So this is my my universal one.

SPEAKER_01 5:42

Yeah, it's a good one. It's funny if it's it's sort of like you know, like many things, the mid-wit curve. If you I think in a lot of industries, and just in life, being a perfectionist is gonna get you to like a pretty good place in life overall, like just in a vacuum. But like to, you know, to true, like I guess if I have walked up to some some person on the street and they said I'm a perfectionist and someone was not, like the median outcome for that perfectionist person is probably higher, yes, net net, but that tail outcome is almost certainly not, um, which is what I think you're tapping into. Um so it actually parlays well into one of one of mine, which was like the ability to change your mind, I guess. When you said like willing to be wrong, you know, I think there's a lot of stubborn, like stubbornness in this industry. And it's it's like a double-edged sword. Because obviously, like I I think we both know people probably like who gamble who aren't like I don't want to say arrogant enough, but like lack self-confidence enough, like enough self-confidence to just like let it rip to your point of like the non-perfectionist. Um so like you do need a level of of self-confidence, but like the the amount of um people who you know I think could benefit from having a little bit more humility in this uh industry, I think it's very easy. Like if you're doing one, you know, I could just relate to you know, sort of some of how I've thought about this in the past. Like it's very easy for me to sit here and you know, especially like with the you know, the leaderboard or whatever these days and be like, oh, that person is just doing this, like anybody could do that, or you know, like to try and diminish, be like, oh, they you know, that they're not. But like at the end of the day, like if they're doing better than you, they're doing better than you. Um, and so I think that's one of the things that's been the best about doing this show is like um before I didn't have that many people to talk to in the industry industry, frankly. And it it opens your eyes to like so much, so many things you didn't know that you didn't even know, like the unknown unknowns. So I think that's like one of the big things. That's a part of why you know I like doing our end of show segment, the the things we changed our mind on, even though it's usually you just tripling down on a take you already had and me just giving an unrelated take of something that happened the past week to me. That's not something I actually changed my mind on. So I don't know if we're necessarily true to that. But the idea is that I like to think that I'm I'm changing my mind or on something each week. And it's like uh a way to be aware of that and try to be cognizant of that because I think that's that's something that is like extremely valuable. You'll just end up making way more money if you, you know, change your mind on things and pivot and and expand to different things than you would have.

SPEAKER_02 8:43

Do you feel like you've seen like your I do think that that is super over-indexed in successful gamblers? Uh and super underindexed and and even like very smart people who you might know in non-gambling circles. Have you seen anything that's like I this one I'm the most curious of like any like strategies or any way that people have done done a better job of being able to be a little more open-minded or change their mind? Because I I do think it's like very I also think that I'm open-minded, but I might not be like that's the other thing. Like, you're just like, well, am I actually open-minded or am I not? Like, and so you have to like you know, uh always check on that too. But I'm just curious of like strategies or like do you think that's innate or not? I guess is the question.

SPEAKER_01 9:42

Um, I think this one is really hard to get better at. I mean, I think one of the things, like I said, I think one of the things that can help is just talking to more people. So, like, if you the more to me, the more exposure you get to people, the more you realize other people have good ideas, and oftentimes they have far better ideas than you, um, or thought of something that you didn't think of. And then it sort of like grounds yourself as like not being the smartest person in the entire world. Um, so I think like just broadly talking to people is is one thing that that helps. Um beyond that, I don't I don't know if I have. I think that like I said, like I think me, you know, I the reason I like that segment is it consciously forces us to think of something we changed our mind on. So I think that's maybe like another thing is trying to be aware of it.

SPEAKER_02 10:32

Yeah, right. Just be like, you could do your own Bayesian updates of the week. That's something, yeah. For all the people who are like try you know, going out on a date maybe this week, something like that could really increase your chances of a successful date is ask her like what's her Bayesian update of the week. I see I say her Bayesian.

SPEAKER_01 10:53

I don't know if I'd do that on a date, but if you ever first date, you know, if you if you ever get in like a heated argument with a friend or something, like one of the the easiest ways to to trigger them is be like, you know, ask them when's the last time you change your mind on anything, like is it even worth me debating this? And they'll you know, they'll usually be like already angry at you for debating them, they'll have no no answer to anything they've changed their mind on, and you could just end the end the debate. Yeah. I mean, that's that's the other thing. Is it like you know, if you're like three comments deep on Twitter going back and forth with someone, like the person's not changing their mind, right? So like uh and you're probably not either. So like that's that's another problem.

SPEAKER_02 11:36

I feel like changing other work on changing other people's mind, I think is like almost like at least to me, it seems like a semi-useless, like quote unquote skill, because I don't think you can really do it. And like if you're trying to you're kind of doing it for yourself, right? In that example that you're uh you know, you're three comments deep on Twitter. Like, why are you why are you there?

SPEAKER_01 11:58

You get you get what's gonna happen if you change your mind. You know, and then that's it. You know, that everybody should move on after that.

SPEAKER_02 12:06

Changing your own mind, that's very valuable. I I agree with you. Um, okay. Number two for me. Uh most people have this. Um uh successful, you know, whatever we are, APs, however we want it to call ourselves, are insanely quick to make an initial determination of opportunity, and then they are slow and deliberate on a second look to take advantage of that opportunity. So, like, I guess the other way to say it is people have a really good filter, right? They're like, you gotta look at a ton of stuff, and you have to be able to check like, does this make sense as something that could have value? You know, is it a new market, right? Is like obvious kind of first one that that we think about. Um you know, could they have mess, you know, is this something that doesn't have a uh normal distribution? You know, and there's all these little things that we we probably don't even like some of some of the most obvious big ones, like those two, are ones we talk about in the show. But there's also just that feeling you're like, ooh, I don't know, I think there could be something, there could be something here, or like you look at it, and the other thing is is being able to say, like, this is not worth my time. And the the thing is you can't be, and this is the I guess this ties back to the perfectionist, is like you still should be willing to to like occasionally pass up something good, um, in that like filtering it out because you want to quickly there's like some like there's some optimal speed at which you filter through opportunities and keep going and finding new ones, right? Like if if you have to like absolutely like without a shadow of a doubt, rule something out as a good opportunity, a good market, or whatever, you're just gonna be, you're not gonna see nearly as much opportunities as the person who's like 95% correct in filtering stuff out, but like goes 20 times faster than you. Um, and that that's something I've I think like on this show it comes across when people talk about how they got into you know AP AP or what their first edge was or just a dead edge. It's just like always something of like, yeah, I was like going through the menu and then like I saw this touchdown thing. I was like, well, that's weird. Like I don't know if they understand like that teams have I remember it's like I don't you know the coin the coin flip would you know how how teams you know basically uh decide to to kick or or receive like has a huge impact on first touchdowns. Like I wonder if they have that factored in. At least it's worth a look because you know I also can bet 10,000, 20,000 on this, like all of these things. And it's just like you hear this over and over again on this show of of basically like how they quickly came to the decision that this might be an opportunity, and then what they did to then dive in to see like can I beat it? What's it worth?

SPEAKER_01 15:21

Yeah, I I definitely agree that that's been a commonality with the people we've we've interviewed, like the ability almost to put yourselves in your counterparty shoes and try and think of what mistakes they're likely to make or could potentially make is uh is definitely a commonality. I think that skill, I'm curious, like the that skill and then this skill that I'm gonna list list out, which I think is also tangentially related to what you said, I would say are two of like, I know we when we have interview, when we interview people, we generally like to ask like what makes them special or what are they particularly good at. The skill you just described plus this skill, I would like to think or are two of your strengths, just knowing you. So I'm curious like how how you would think of it. The one I'm gonna list is a focus, like being almost like obsessive of specific problems. The reason I highlighted for you is, you know, it's like the opposite for me. Like when you're describing like filtering stuff out, I'm just like, you know, a sieve that just lets every single idea through and tries everything for you know 20 minutes and doesn't focus on anything. Um and so like you're you're like the opposite of that. You like get one problem or like one um one area of focus, not to like narrow it, but like one area of focus and like nail it and do it for years on end and like put all your time and effort in it and just like don't even know what's going on besides what's on Apple TV, beyond that. So like that, that you know, I sort of calling it focus, sort of calling it like obsessive, you know. I think the I talked about it before, like if someone is like, because the way this could manifest is like I think the biggest tell that someone's gonna be good at sports betting or or any type of speculation is if they're good at anything that requires like an obsessive type of manner. Like if someone is like an elite video game player or card player or board game player or anything where it's like you just have to sort of be obsessed with it to get really good at it. Um, or like even like it could be physical skills, like juggling or whatever, like it's something where you just have to like really grind it out. Like they're almost certainly. Right. Juggling, though. Two totally different things. Yeah, no, but like anything that requires like an obsession, and and this is probably like maybe people are sitting there saying, like, no duh, like this is how you'd be good at anything. I'm not sure if that's a hundred percent sh true. Like, I'm sure there's there's a lot of industries, like, I don't maybe this is wrong. I'm sure you can be a fantastic dentist without being like obsessive over being a dentist. Maybe that's wrong. Maybe if you're a you know a dentist in the audience and you do you disagree with that, let me know. But like for for gambling, like uh be and the reason it is is because like so much of the payoff is at like those last steps. Because like some is it's so easy to take maybe like to get to like 60, 70% of the problem solved that it's just like very competitive at that part part. But if you can get to like 98%, 99%, like it's very hard to get there, and so so it takes a ton of work to get there, and you're so there's just way less competition. So that's like where where focus really pays off in like any of these like obsessive type hobby skill, you know, businesses, whatever.

SPEAKER_02 18:56

Yeah, I I I certainly think like that's kind of how how we skew between us. Like, I I probably am a little more a little more single-minded. But I you know what's interesting is like when I was starting in poker, I wasn't. Like I actually can play, you know, all of the horse games plus a few other games and the big bet games to some like competent level. But like, and the reason why I am this way isn't like I actually don't think I'm naturally this way, but I learned from somebody, my basically my poker backer Ben coach, he was like one of the best at heads-up sit and goes and something called spin and goes, which is like a kind of slight different type of game than a heads-up sit and go, but they're basically the same thing, and that's that's what he did. He was like, I'm just gonna do this, and like he always was making a lot of money, uh, not very stressed out, and I was always like trying to figure out, oh yeah, I want to you know learn potlam and Omaha or whatever, and I'm gonna like jump to that, I'm gonna jump to this, and like and then I always wasn't making a lot of money, and so when I like came back for round two and in sports betting, like I definitely had I definitely felt like that was one of my main takeaways from my time at poker was like try and be a little more like Ben. Um and you know, that you're gonna you're gonna and I think what you said is exactly right, like it's so competitive on the like the pretty good, like I was pretty good at pot limit on huh. That's not gonna do too much for me. Um, but like if you're like one of the best at an even more niche thing, like heads up sing goes, uh spinning goes, whatever, like that's gonna that that actually does a lot for you. Um so yeah, I I I think that's something that can be learned if you wanna like if you even think it's optimal, because while like you say you're a sieve, I still think you have a very good filter. Um, I think you're kind of being uh like slightly self-deprecating, but like you may spend a little more time on certain things, but like you're also able to get to you're also able to like win at stuff with not as much time put in, which is very skillful. You're like a traditional AP, you know, like you're like a real AP, like somebody you know, like the ones from Risk Ruin, who like find stuff and then are just like, oh, this is good, and then they just make a lot of money.

SPEAKER_01 21:53

Yeah, no, I mean I think I think it's a balance between you know the the focus point and then the the the point you had about being like filtering stuff and being able to identify the good stuff and and trade into it quickly. I would say like if I'm better at something, it's not the focus and it's the finding stuff and trading it quickly, like with a hopefully strategy. And it I mean I think it's encouraging probably that it's not like like you you don't need to do things like a very specific way um you know to win. Like you can do you can have different strategies, right? And like whatever suits your personality or what you're interested in or whatever. Or like just how you're cut. But certainly I think to get outsized returns you need like outsize focus and um with you know short form video and social media my focus is diminishing every day.

SPEAKER_02 22:48

So yeah but the World Cup saving it.

SPEAKER_01 22:52

We got to watch all these long games it's nuts that is true. You're you know you're locked in for I feel like I'm reading a book. I'm glad they had the uh they you know they added the hydration breaks because they had to split that up I couldn't I couldn't website that the American mind couldn't no yeah we needed a break we needed to get on social media or scroll for a little bit that would have been far too long to go with that scrolling um okay so I have one more I I don't know how many you have on your list. No you did the last one yeah fire series.

SPEAKER_02 23:21

Okay so this is my third one uh non-perfectionists quick to you know good filter and then the third one is I think people have honest self-assessment at this level like I've been very I don't know I I feel like at least when you're you're you're you I think the kind of the kind of view of people who are really crushing it and successful if you're like going to like movies and TV and all this stuff is like they're kind of a douche um they're you know very assertive um type A to the max like you know whatever that that's kind of just the stereotype but I've found that we've we've undoubtedly had some of the best you know gamblers better whatever in the in the entire world on this podcast and you they're not like that like I think they have a very very honest I think someone that comes to mind is like Fluff with with this who he'll be like yeah you know I'm not you know I'm not trying to to be an originator or whatever. Um you know I don't think I could do that or like it would be you know that that valuable if you listen to Fluff kind of talk you'd be like oh man like this guy's kind of you know the way you he just kind of seems like you know he's just a classic top down better but then if you see his betting results they're like incredibly incredibly good. And if anything like yeah I know I know I think it was Shipper said like you have to have like some arrogance but not too much or something. I I I forget who said this but um I think it it's it's true where like you can't you know one the the thing that's gonna cause you to go broke is to play in games you don't have an edge. So like to always be um you don't want to be too on the self doubt side or you won't actually move up in stakes and you won't actually make a lot of money. Right? But like that's why I said honest. It doesn't mean like you have to be super humble or you know say you're not good at XYZ but it it's a it's it doesn't matter. It's do you have an accurate assessment of your skill level uh relative to everybody else. And I think like people who do really well have that because they know where to play like the game is so much picking games you know that's always going to be a part of this. So like that's the number one skill for game selection is kind of being able to accurately assess yourself against the field and it's not I don't think it's like a easy skill right off the bat because obviously like we all have ego and you want to tell yourself like oh I'm so good at this or or whatever. And I think like it's funny like when I was coming up probably when I was like about my absolute worst I've I've been as a winning better like playing poker in my early early days like was probably when I had the most ego and I was just like absolute compared to like now like just trash. And it's it's so funny. So you know I think it's it's it's tricky at first but um you know you just gotta look in the mirror and kind of know where you stand.

SPEAKER_01 26:51

Yeah I mean I think that's a good way to close up I mean because like I at the end of the day gamblers get paid for having accurate honest assessments and that that applies to you know like that I I think like whatever I think there's a crossover basically I think people who are like able to remove like cognitive bias all these things like from assessments of assessing games or probabilities or whatever like that probably also fundamentally to me has some some transfer to to gamblers. Like if I just think of people who gamble they're usually the way I would describe them is fair like meaning like they give they they they can see multiple sides of an issue and they they understand it. And that's you know that I think a big part of that is driven by just like gambling and and having to do that every day.

SPEAKER_02 27:40

I think the funniest version of this I don't know if you saw this but Adam uh Beagle Bats retweet this there was like Haralbob's like on this like crazy rant about how like women shouldn't vote or whatever and there should be like one vote per household but like he was coming from a standpoint as like not having the household like he wouldn't get to vote. So at least he was being fair and I was like well you know at the end of the day he's a winning gambler so you know he's gonna you know he's gonna say this crazy shit but but he's not gonna be too unfair about it.

SPEAKER_01 28:15

He's gonna admit he's very much you know gamblers are very much not like root for the the jerseys on the field right like that that pretty quickly gets drilled out of you.

SPEAKER_02 28:24

So yeah I mean I think I think uh I won't comment on the the opinion itself but I think the uh the fairness is a is a trait that most gamblers have good ones you know SP doesn't want to denounce um you know I must have missed that I you know I've been I've been a little bit it was very niche combo I I just laughed at it and uh yeah but uh do you have any else any others no I think that was good okay good we hit our hit our 30 minute mark um okay news so we're recording this on Monday so that means yesterday was the game of the tournament uh Mexico England a few things about it I think we can we can talk about in no particular order um it did over 400 million on the main line so on just on the main market there's an arb up with I think with Penny for two days between Cal She and Penny and Polymarket and Penny um for huge size and the flow in the game was like nothing I've I've ever seen before like Super Bowl included I I can't I I it blew my mind it blew my mind I I I was shocked at how much we were doing pre-game um it was almost all directional in Mexico which I I think um you know I think that has some interest like I I think there's a interesting debate on if people in Mexico were trading on prediction markets for this game. I have some some thoughts of why I think they might have been but uh is that no I you know again I might be uh out of the loop is that not like public knowledge I tried to search quickly like can like nobody knows whether people in Mexico well that's the thing nobody knows who can trade on prediction markets anywhere because it I remember at the one point there were like ColC is available in like 300 countries but then I never heard any more of that like okay we have to have at least one Mexican listeners. So I I exchanged DMs with someone who is Mexican but in the US but they they were asking if I thought that basically Texas and California by themselves with the Mexican population there could have done it. So I didn't hear I don't have any inside intel from them but I did say to them I said what I need is I need to know if someone I need to hear from somebody in Mexico who's done this.

SPEAKER_01 31:09

So please uh let us know so we can kind of put this to bed but yeah I don't know I mean you know I don't know you want to talk about we've got a ton of questions on this so we can address all the the questions too real quick before so I mean for me like I've been primarily I haven't even been quoting like the the the money line or anything for the World Cup.

SPEAKER_02 31:30

What was the what was this like the R like what do you know how like how wide it was uh pads posted it on Twitter I I don't know if I think it was something like plus 100 plus 106. Okay so I okay got it that's basically like you need to bet um you bet on Mexico on the offshores and then you bet on the I got the direct I was just I didn't actually see somewhere like cleanly what like how wide it was like posted a few times he's like it's still up you know it's like Jesus well that's effectively what was happening with the um the US to win no you uh yes for the for the first oh the yeah yeah yeah the US to win with draft game yeah yeah yeah because they were like minus a single game yeah they were like minus 2700 but then they were like plus 3500 yeah exactly exactly yeah I mean I I it would be interesting I mean like I don't I have no idea on like where whether it's illegal or not in Mexico.

SPEAKER_01 32:34

I tried to do some some searching and it seems like it might be but I I have no idea on that part I mean I I think even if it's illegal in the US like there's tons of Mexican Americans in the United States like I think that is inexpensive.

SPEAKER_02 32:47

And in the two biggest states have like oh that's a good point. That's that's Texas and California.

SPEAKER_01 32:53

So yeah that's a really good point. So yeah it we it was really interesting. I mean I think we can we can even maybe just I think most of what I wanted to say would be answered through some of the questions. So do you want to just jump to those like the yeah yeah let's say the Mexico England okay sure so the first one was how big of a roart was England Mexico getting England sub 50 cents um was it on par with Jake Paul Tyson or Jake Paul Joshua? So I think you know like I saw that's why I was trying to get the size you know the size of the ARB and everything. I think the thing that was interesting about this after hearing all that is not like like I don't think it's worth it's sounding like it was some huge edge. It was actually probably like a pretty thin edge in terms of percentage. What is fascinating about this to me is and I think to every most people posting about it is the certainty of the edge and the liquidity behind the edge. Like because you know the edge in itself there's there's edges on like that are equivalent percentage like ROI or whatever like every single day on tons of tons of things. The the interesting thing is that you could get seemingly infinite down on this and you could be very very confident with the prices just with the amount of liquidity and stuff. So I mean I think that's that's the most interesting part about like all these like this instance the USA instance it just the you know in sports betting we had like one of these seemingly every five years or something where it's like there's so much money like the public's actually moving the line and in prediction markets seemingly we have these all the time like in sports in sports yes but like even out of sports like I don't know if you I guess the Jake Pop sponsor crowd right but like elections and and certain things like I know there's the LA election which I don't know much about but seemingly that was one. So it just seems like with with prediction markets there's like so many more instances where you can just be like certain like the confidence interval around an edge is like very small like you're very confident it's it's this and you can get like massive liquidity down.

SPEAKER_02 35:03

Yeah I think I think that's exactly what it was like the the Paul Tyson I mean like Mexico at the end of the day was like a really good soccer team playing at home and in front of 80 000 like rabid fans. Like I don't think it was like and if you watch the game it wasn't they felt kind of evenly matched I don't know anything about soccer so you know I'm stepping out on a limit here but like when you watch like Anthony Joshua fought Jake Paul you did not think oh these two people were evenly matched or when Jake Paul fought a 65 year old like so so yeah I agree with us fee it's like not necessarily the I wouldn't call it a roart but it was like a liquidity roart it was like a different type of roart it's like you can't believe how much money you can ARB here.

SPEAKER_01 35:54

It's like yeah yeah that that you know like a risk free the risk free equivalent of a roar I guess it's like uh yeah yeah exactly it's like a high sharp ratio roar it's like a sharp ratio roart or something um you've did you write satisfy sports or did I write that it's satisfying I don't know we did it wrong we did it wrong to satisfy sports so we're gonna go with that um satisfy sports question was how are you determining if something is plus or minus EV when it comes to these World Cup spots are you top downing a fair and getting in front of Recflow is it a leak to assume the no bids is plus EV or at least can't be that bad the day of the game and he, you know he's tilting his donations he said he seems to just be donating I think he also asked in a separate question I think didn't get a chance to jot this one down. He has something about risk management I think we had a couple other questions on that so I think we'll answer that at a at a different one but like managing with so much rec flow. I think you and both you and I, I don't think either of us are doing any soccer modeling at this point. Correct so I think all of our numbers that we're just getting you know top down um I guess I get to answer some of the other parts of the questions for me like all my numbers are are derived from the market and then um yeah I'm just trying to I'm just trying to get the as much as front of the as much rec flow where I think the rec flow is going to basically push the the prices as far out of whack as possible basically so like um this Mexico game we can talk about this in a little bit more detail but like everything was being bet like at an insane rate and you you'd certainly like you said like it it had a lean towards the Mexican side but just it being the middle of summer it being what it was yesterday Sunday night when you know nothing else going on like everything was just being bet like at a at a crazy pace. And so I think the game or at least how I was thinking about it more last night is like how how can I optimize like the diversification across all these things and also like where is where where where am I getting like the actual best bang for my buck here um like where where's actually like the highest ROI stuff. So that's that was like sort of my strategy for it. I think the to the last part curious your your thoughts on this like assuming the no bid is plus EV or that can't be as bad. I think in in games like this like um I I don't know if you can assume just like both sides are okay like because some of the markets are getting so pushed out of whack. So like top of book on certain sides might be like bad.

SPEAKER_02 38:41

Yeah so yeah although like you can on the money line for sure because like top of book on like if you think about the USA or the Mexico example. Yeah yeah like both you know but you don't want to necessarily be top of book like England no you know on unless it's like a risk management of course which is like totally viable but yeah yeah so like certainly like not on the money lines I don't think like every no is good because you know the money line is really one market right so like the two no's there there you don't think I don't think it's as I don't think of it as much of a no as I think of like no two plus goals or like the on even the under I think of as more of a a no than like a money line right so like what I would say is yeah kind of what SP said so I think like you're going top down but you're not you're not going top down. So the thing that rec flow does like a lot of rec flow does that doesn't normally happen is that it moves it legitimately will fill you at insane prices sometimes like there's enough there to like take out levels especially in books that aren't as thick as like and it's funny because it took out levels in the Mexico moneyline book like but like especially in like the other stuff the the flow is just so strong that it'll move levels away and you'll start to get good fills. So what I would be doing is I wouldn't be like going out and trying to be like oh you know the no must be good or like I can charge a little bit a little bit more VIG than FanDuel here you know on this like market. What I would be doing is I'd be like can I charge more than the sports books and only get filled if I'm gonna get charged more like that's something you can do and why these like rec heavy games are good is because it presents you opportunities that you wouldn't normally have to charge worse prices than the sports books. So like that's how I would kind of be if I was like thinking of a one sentence answer to to this question is how would I find EV? Like I would make it like I would just have it be so certainly plus EV. Like I could go everything I get at Cal she out to you know wherever and and make money. Like that that's what I would be doing. I would definitely not be going into this like trying to quote super competitive markets or like compete on price.

SPEAKER_01 41:24

I would be just trying to like pick up pick up like you know I think there was there's a great quote I forget who it was someone those old school traders but he was like yeah what I do is just sit around and then like if I see money on the floor I go pick it up like this is an opportunity where you can just do that kind of yeah I think that part lays into pad's question which was if you could do anything differently for Mexico England would you um I'm curious like for me I guess the thing the thing that I was probably unprepared for was just how much um like volume there would be because I think the way I was thinking about that game in hindsight as it was going on was like optimal was probably to like deplete your entire bankroll but like deplete it at the like it want you wanted it to be depleted like at kickoff and for me I was um I I probably was depleted prior to like earlier than I had wanted like a couple hours probably um so I think that's what that what that tells me is I was like too aggressive to your point like too aggressive quoting early because you're right like in a lot of the markets entire levels just kept getting pushed back and back and back and I could have gotten better prices if I was just less less like competitive early. Now obviously that's easy to say with like the benefit of hindsight like in a different game that might not be true. Right. So that's where like knowing what's actually going on and being plugged in and um like having a good this is not something I think we talked about a ton on podcast but like having a good measure of like the velocity of a market um I think is helpful to know like whether you need to move back or not or you know what like what prices you need to be posting. So I think that's one thing I would do differently um the other thing is I would have just actually played uh more the bets that won instead of the bets that lost um you know not played all the goal scorers and and some of the stuff that that lost and you know I could have just went full send on the the England money line I guess. But I think I honestly I was happy with um how I diversified you know I think I tried pretty hard to not just be like solely Mexico dependent. Obviously like that ended up not totally working with um you know basically like through some of the goal scores and first halves and stuff. But um you know all in all I obviously like for me it was a really bad result. Um but in terms of process, I didn't think it was too bad besides being uh a little less competitive on price early.

SPEAKER_02 44:12

Yeah. Yeah, I I I echo that. I think my answer is like charge more vague. I'd charge more vague. Um if I could do it over again. And I think there's some interesting things like for instance when the Norway game, before the Norway game, this is a good tweet by uh Alex Land Trader. Uh he was like after the Norway game settled, like the VIG, the VIG went way down on the Mexico like RFQs or whatever. And I was like, oh yeah. Like, you know, finding certain times to just like really ratchet up um the VIG would be one thing, and just like charging, yeah. Try the fill, I mean the velocity at which at which we got filled was like was shocking to me. And we've been quoting every game as World Cup. So it's not like I'm comparing this to nothing. Like this was truly an outlier like uh like of epic proportions, and I wish that I was yeah, we had uh charge more vague and got you know our bankroll to zero at a more optimal time. Certainly not whenever I posted we were at three dollars on Twitter. It was you know well before kick. So uh yeah, that that that would be I agree. I I think like that that's the answer. You you have this like you have this you have this like this line where you want to like watch your bankroll like slowly, consistently drip all the way down to like right when if you're quoting like only pre-game, basically like you want it right when it kicks off, you're basically hitting zero. And like how you can get that pace correctly is is interesting. Now it could there could be other things you do because maybe you don't want to quote as many um super long shots so you don't have to put up as much capital. So one thing you could do is if like you're willing to quote like the 99.9 cent no's, like maybe now you set your max like 95. So you're you know, because you have all this more the opportunity, you're a little more capital efficient. Charge, you know, obviously charging more um VIG is another thing. So it's like it did make me think a lot about that game of like making your bankroll touchdown on the ground at like the exact right time. Um, and it's something that like today, so today is Monday, so we have obviously US, Belgium, Spain, uh, Portugal just happen just happened like today. That's something that we've actually been tinkering with because of yesterday. So I almost feel like I am getting a do-over on yesterday. Um because yeah, we're focusing more on that.

SPEAKER_01 47:02

Yeah, I don't know if it was just a coincidence with where I was in the queue, but like legitimate, and I know we joked about this already, but legitimately, like within two seconds of that Holland second goal going in, I like the amount of fills I was getting on Harry Kane was just insane. Like I honestly wanted to, if I had like a screen recorder, I should have done it with the time because it was legitimately like the second it went in. And so maybe having like having more control over some of those knobs. Because the other thing you said, which I just want to point out, is there's nothing more tilting when like you realize like you get to a point where you're like, I'm gonna run out of money here in the account like before I want to, and then you see some huge order on like no random defenseman two goals for 99 cents, and you're just like that's not what I want to be spending my money on, like really, you know. So I think yeah, some of the like the dials to to adjust that in real time was something that would have helped me um manage that better yesterday and you know, today as we're recording with the US.

SPEAKER_02 48:08

Yeah. Man, I have to say, like, this has been such a cool tournament, like because of these questions and and you know, the Mount Flow.

SPEAKER_01 48:18

Um yeah, I was just thinking it's gonna be such a buzz cut when the World Cup is done.

SPEAKER_02 48:24

I uh I don't know what I'm gonna do. It's even it actually is gonna suck. Like it I don't know. I don't know if I'm ready for like no World Cup, but we're getting there. Like there's not many games left.

SPEAKER_01 48:35

No, it's it's definitely coming out. All right. Next one from the gentleman on days where you presumably get all your bankroll down due to volume and number of events, is it wise to slightly reduce your normal bet size or would you treat it like a normal day? I think this was given into what what we were just talking about. I mean, for me, I definitely would adjust down, like because for me, when I sort of yesterday realized um I'm gonna have no problem getting my entire account like in play, then I want to like lower the average size I'm willing to take on a group of plays or a specific like type of outcome. Um, just because that's just a very easy way to to diversify without sacrificing like really any edge in theory. Um so yeah, I mean that's that's exactly how I would think about think about it. I don't really have much else to add beyond that.

SPEAKER_02 49:27

Yeah, I think I responded on Twitter to this one saying like, yeah, you'd want to you'd basically want to turn it down until you just barely get your whole bankroll in play, just like you said, that's for those reasons. Um we got Aaron. Uh during games like Mexico, England, how much inventory risk are you willing to carry? And how often do you take minus EV exits just to free up cash? Also, this is Aaron saying, also, it was my first time making sports markets last night. Is it always this easy? I don't know if I would classify that game as easy. I would classify that game as the worst two hours of my entire life. Um, how much inventory risk we took is related to that feeling? Because like if Mexico came back and won that game, that would have been by far our biggest loss. Uh like it would be it would have been huge. Um way worse than that other like two-goal game. Or whatever the day where everybody scored two goals, this would have been much worse. Because you had the situation where Kane, basically, the four most popular goal scorers all are all scored, and one of them got two. Um and then the only thing we're hanging on to at that point, because you know, the total is oh, everything's over. Both teams scored, I think both both teams scored both halves. Like just just just like anything that like everything you can think of, we lost except for the big position on on Mexico. No, so like had that flipped, I think.

SPEAKER_01 51:08

And was that if you don't want to say you don't have to say, was that a mix of like um you know RFQs? RFQ was it primarily like RFQ?

SPEAKER_02 51:16

Yeah, or yeah, okay, yeah. So that's why I'm not even sure like what our loss would be, but like it I know it would have been a lot because like every if you weren't if you weren't doing RFQ, like everything lost, basically.

SPEAKER_01 51:30

Yeah, like right. What could win? What could basically everything lost? Like, what could have won? I can't even think. I guess Mexico no Mexico on sides, like you know, minus one and a half, yeah, first one, but beyond that, everything lost.

SPEAKER_02 51:47

Like, what yeah, exactly. So, um, and that that was something we talked about today. Like, we just kind of had a brief pow-wow of like wow, that was close. Like, one, like, how much would we have lost? And then, like, two, like, are we okay with the fact that we could have lost that much? And it was this conversation of like, well, we would have lost a number where I don't think we still would have even been down in RFQs on the World Cup, and it did feel like for if Mexico ended up then going on to win the game, um like uh you can't imagine like I I couldn't tell you like how it could have been a worst-case scenario. So for the fact that it it probably wouldn't have wiped away like all of our profits means that we're obviously being aggressive. Um, and I probably would feel differently recording this had you know Mexico scored holding that one-man advantage for 30 minutes, which was pure torture. But uh um yeah, I don't know. I don't know. I mean, I I think possibly we were slightly uh too exposed on just Mexico broadly. Um and obviously score, like we're exposed on scoring in Mexico. So it was something you were saying.

SPEAKER_01 53:10

You know, that would have been the real test of you know what we've talked about. You gotta have a really bad day and be like, oh, that was maybe too aggressive. I'm glad I'm I'm glad hopefully you got the taste of it without it actually happening.

SPEAKER_02 53:20

That's that's what it was. Like I was tasting it, and I knew I knew it was I knew the realm it would be in.

SPEAKER_01 53:28

I knew it had to be bad because you were up well past your bedtime, I think. You know, to watch it. So I'm like, hey, they must he must really be sweating.

SPEAKER_02 53:34

And then I had to stay up. I was honestly, like, I was so spent after like my adrenaline was so high after that game that it I took me like another hour to go to sleep.

SPEAKER_01 53:45

Wow, you're a hero for even doing the pod the next day. Last one from Brooks on on this topic. Was England, Mexico the perfect example of a need for a prime broker in the PM space? What would some offerings they could provide to be successful? I know you know more about this than I. Um, I honestly like don't like it seems like probably every like I know that helps like uh even out exp like basically risk if you have like if you're pro-England on one site, but pro it seems like that wouldn't have really been the case here.

SPEAKER_00 54:17

No.

SPEAKER_01 54:17

Um I guess if you had like an international exchange, maybe, but um, yeah, I don't know your thoughts.

SPEAKER_02 54:23

I think like the the thing the thing is always gonna be here is like, is there are they doing anything for collateral return on parlays or combos? You know, like are they gonna be canceling out you know, combos that have a Mexico leg and combos that have an England leg? Because right now that doesn't happen. Um, if they're doing that, that is super useful. So, and I think we'll probably start to see exchanges go that path because it's gonna it's gonna free up a lot of volume, and you're not even extending leverage in that situation, you're literally just doing capital return. So to me, it's like a no-brainer way to get some extra volume.

SPEAKER_01 55:08

Um I think that was all we had on that that piece of news. Should we come back to the rest of the news?

SPEAKER_02 55:16

Yeah, okay. So did you I don't know if you kind of dove into the Spotify. I did take it. Yes, I tried to catch up on it. Yeah, I did too. There's a good uh good article by by Dustin and uh Gayton, who was I think the the big whistleblower on the market. Um but yeah, I mean I think the basically my my understanding of this is that uh there has been forever a lot of manipulation in Spotify numbers. And the way they do it is like they try and like they try and like get rid of botted streams because what happens is like artists get paid a percentage of their stream or or whatever it is, or like certain number of streams get you put into a new playlist that like then gets you in front of more people, etc. So there's all these reasons for like people to fake streams. So Spotify has like all of this um all of this like process to combat that. But what they do is like they'll combat it at like the next day, the end of the month, and then like finally, like the real, real firm number is like at the end of the year, and they spend a lot of time like trying to figure out like what streams are are botted and what are not. Uh Call She has a market on Spotify streams where it's like who will be the top streams for uh you know, I don't know, this week, this day. I think this was a daily one. Um and the difference is that like you know Spotify might not remove the botted streams by the time that this market is resolved. And that was kind of the big that was kind of the important piece, which is like before there wouldn't necessarily be a super strong reason for somebody to go into the Spotify market and like bought one song for one day, um, because the artists like wouldn't actually get credit for those streams when like they'd be realized at the end of the month like they were botting and they wouldn't make any money, and then like they might get banned from Spotify. Like, there's all these reasons why like that wasn't really an attractive proposition until prediction markets. So I guess basically what happened, it's super obvious. Like, if you look at uh the charts, um, I forget actually the name of the who do you remember the artist? It was uh Malcolm Todd.

SPEAKER_01 57:45

No, I don't remember.

SPEAKER_02 57:47

I think that was it, but uh anyway, yeah, Malcolm Todd song earrings. So it's just this like song that had no shot of being a top song, but it had a strike, and basically it had a strike that was like 99.9. No, right? But then it started like getting bought, and and all of a sudden there was like 76,000 in open interest, and then bam, the next day it's the top-played song, and you can see it like cross over. The two real songs that people thought were gonna win was a Drake song and Olivia Dean song, and you can see in the charts like those songs have been trending and been top top of the charts, and then just this huge flip on that day where like this random song comes out of nowhere and wins, like so obvious. And then what happens is Call She settles the market, and then later Spotify like removes the streams from that song because they were clearly bought it, and this is this is the issue.

SPEAKER_01 58:53

Yeah, I mean the thing you like to say that you know the only markets that that have don't have these issues are sports. Um, seems true again. I there's there's I I think with any of these types of markets where the eventually there gets enough money, like this is just it's not like maybe it'll happen, it could happen. It's like this is just going to happen. There's going to be some sort of sketchy thing, whether it's manipulation, botting, like that, uh like listeners, insider information. Like it's just gonna happen in every one of these. It's like if you're allowed to trade millions of dollars on like high school tennis, there's going to be issues. This is the equivalent, right? Like you're you're you're having these huge markets where participants, and there's maybe like me jumping more into inside information or whatever, because I don't know if you've seen like you know, the Love Island markets are also Oh, I I did I it's like very clear there's also inside information there now. Um what's funny about all of these is the people who the people who are like doing whatever this behavior, whether it's botting, inside information, they are so bad at they're like so horrifically bad at it. It's like they just go in and buy to like a hundred cents and like think nothing is gonna, like nobody's gonna know. Or in your example, like just picking this random song that clearly. But yeah, I mean it's just this is what happens with these markets. Like, I really think if I'm it's a challenge because there are like a lot of people that like, and I'm no, I'm sure Cal she thinks of these and polymarket and stuff, they think of these as like customer acquisition tools and stuff, and something that separates them from maybe just the sports. But like at the end of the day, if they make it and they make a lot of money, it's gonna be because of two reasons. It's gonna be because of sports, and it's gonna be because of like serious financial like products. It's not be gonna be because of any of this. And so I just they have to make a decision whether these are like actually worth it. Like, there's no way they're worth whatever. I don't know what they just raised. I guess they raised double what they were again. I don't know what they're at.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:29

Like a classic move. Just add 20 on.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:33

But like they're the the valuation is not because they're gonna like have mention markets and culture markets and all this stuff that is just like getting them 90% of the press and 1% of the revenue. Like it just doesn't make sense to me.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:50

Yeah, I mean, yeah, I've been paying this drum forever. Uh yeah, I mean, it's obviously it's funny, it's just like sports is the the bastard stepchild, but it has literally zero problems. Like everything else is just fraught with problems. It's like if it becomes this is a funny thing. It's like if a market even sniffs like becoming as important in sports, it will automatically then attract illegal activity.

SPEAKER_01 1:02:20

It's like this like how it goes. That's what I'm saying. Like, as soon as the limits, like as soon as limits and volume gets high enough, it's just like, okay, now it makes sense for me to insider this market. Now it makes sense for me to message a producer, you know, like all that stuff. So it's just like without capping the size of the market or whatever, like it's just an inevitable problem. Like, yeah, no amount of monitoring, no amount of like warning, no amount of like suspending accounts. Like, this is just gonna continue to happen, unless like people go to jail for like well that that's the thing.

SPEAKER_02 1:02:52

I think that may need to happen.

SPEAKER_01 1:02:55

Because that's kind of like part of someone going to jail for like insider trading Love Island. That would just be I mean it'd be funny. Yeah, I mean, that's the thing though. Like, they can't there they they can't just like offer trading on something they have no rights to, right, and then like punish someone for doing something that they're if you're if you're part of a publicly trade company, you've been you've been that's like something you've signed in.

SPEAKER_02 1:03:23

Yeah, exactly. You've signed into this, they've done compliance after compliance on like what you can and can't do. If you're like the person that supplies the avocados to Love Island, like you have not been given this training. So, like you're again, like it's it is really like on the exchanges, like what markets offer on. And if they want to like do a deal with Love Island, where then like Love Island is now like adhering to a certain set of rules, and everybody on the Love Island set is aware that they have like these rules around insider trading because like this is a sanctioned event or or whatever, then like I think that's totally fine, but as it is, yeah, there's just I mean it's a total clusterfuck.

SPEAKER_01 1:04:18

Yeah, so your your next point you jot down on uh it was I think reiterates the point. You said the June volume numbers for Calchi was 86% sports and parlays, um, but they don't like to count parlays and sports, yeah. 86% sports and parlays, 12.2 percent crypto. You said 60 of that is a 15-minute Bitcoin up-down market, and 2.1% everything else. That's yeah, that's I mean, they always like to like talk about crypto, and nobody ever you know talks about that as like literally just the 15-minute up-down market. Um and you can even like parlay that, right?

SPEAKER_02 1:04:56

Yes, cryptos are so so as somebody who is you know in the RFQ space, like I'm very comfortable bundling parlays under sports because they're all sports, but there's occasionally a crypto leg that a Bitcoin up down leg that will will sneak on to something. Um, but there's nothing else besides that. But yeah, sports. But I think that that is the funny thing. It's like they have like classified combos as something else, like exotics or something. So they're like, look at the sports volume guy. It's it's so it to me, I I like I just can't I could not do that. I can't go you know what I'm saying? Like, that's just like so shameless to me.

SPEAKER_01 1:05:41

They're exotics, they're complicated financial. Move on, nothing to say here.

SPEAKER_02 1:05:46

It's just like like and I don't know, something about like just this like desire to just to be like to have nothing to do with sports and like every they just gotta lean into their jock self.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:00

Like you could tell they were just maybe like, you know, didn't like sports growing up, and you know, now they they they just hate that this is what they've become.

SPEAKER_02 1:06:09

Well, if you read this volume, like another way, you could say that um basically 92% of all of the volume on Calci is either sports or Bitcoin up down. And then it sounds about right to me. So I I don't know. I mean, whatever, you know. I love you know, I love sports, so it's no no issue, but I think like let's you know, this has been a little harsh.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:42

Let's let's do the bright side. 92% of their markets have no risk of very little risk of inside trading or manipulation or anything, you know.

SPEAKER_02 1:06:51

Absolutely. Well, it's not hard. I think it's great. I I want only sports, so like I'm I'm fine with it, but um, yeah, and to your point, like maybe that's why you just can't stand up a market where everybody feels like they're getting ripped off and insidered. Um okay, a couple quick hitters. We talked about this briefly. Call she got the boot from Michigan, I think right before we recorded the interview with even Steven. Um this is a couple there are a couple states in Nevada did this. New Jersey actually blocked a federal judge blocked New Jersey from doing this. So, like, there's been some wins and some losses here. Uh, I think still eventually, like everybody says it's gonna go to the Supreme Court, so I guess we'll see. Uh, but not much else here. You have anything?

SPEAKER_01 1:07:44

Yeah, I don't I don't have anything to say. Thoughts and prayers how many Michigan people I wonder how many states it would take before, like I don't I don't think about this before it gets like pressed to go to the Supreme Court, uh basically.

SPEAKER_02 1:07:57

I don't know. Hopefully it it will take a while. Um, and then we have the Taylor Swift wedding market. This is a big market. I was trying to get some research out to dinner uh with my wife and a couple of her friends, and they're adamant on MSG, but I guess like what happened was there is a brief page six article that moved the line because it said like they were gonna get they were gonna do a ceremony in Tennessee, but then get married at MSG. So again, you know, one where the rules have to be very specific. Um this is certainly a market though that it's gonna be very hard for it to be manipulated. It'll be easy to be insider. Like Taylor Swift's never gonna like take a call street position and then like move for wedding. But like the insider risk is is obviously is obviously there. A lot of people probably knew the answer to this, but yeah, I don't know. That attracted some non-uh non-male attention to prediction markets, at least, because you know, I I had a conversation with three women about betting on this. So I guess like there's a positive.

SPEAKER_01 1:09:08

I mean, I don't think that I'm I correct me if I'm wrong. I'm guessing those those uh those people are never gonna actually be customers of Cal Shap. No, no, they will not. Yeah. So I mean, I you know, I guess like the you know, in being being known is an important thing as a brand, even if you're you know not a customer. I just thought this was like an example, and I didn't see all the details. I think you went over them with like the rules, unclarity, like where the headline is where is Taylor Swift gonna get married? But like it's technically where's the ceremony, not the after party, like all the same garbage around like the rules stuff we've talked about, where the headline needs to match the rules. So we don't need to belabor that point, but I I just think it's another example where um if someone just thought a little bit more, and again, I guess easy for me to say after the fact, but if someone just thought a little bit more of like what the headline, like would it be that bad to write where will Taylor Swift's wedding ceremony or where will she legally be married or something? Yeah, um, you would just probably have way fewer people complain and like all this garbage.

SPEAKER_02 1:10:13

Where she will legally be married is a good one, right? It like fit. I remember you came up with like a very good test during the when we're talking about the um halftime show with Cardi B. I feel like that would pass your your sniff test of whatever you made up that yeah, I mean that is something that could be proven, right?

SPEAKER_01 1:10:30

That would be a legal sign, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:10:32

Yeah, you know, it would be on the document. Yeah, whereas like where your party was, like what was the party?

SPEAKER_01 1:10:38

What constitutes a part? Like you want to define as few words as possible, right? Like if you need to define party or you know, all these things, like it's just it's too confusing.

SPEAKER_02 1:10:49

Yeah. Um, okay, so then we hop back to questions.

SPEAKER_01 1:10:55

Yep. I can read the first Mexico, yeah. From the gentleman. I think he had an earlier question, but then you know, these are the ones not related to the Mexico stuff. Um, efficient market hypothesis, top-down popularized by Spanky, is seemingly easy for the average aspiring prediction prediction market shark to understand. What are some ways to keep the inefficiencies disguised? Hiding edges in multi-leg parlays, uh, minus EV trades near close to hide CLV, etc. I mean, I think honestly, you hit you know, you hit on some of them. I think the other things that that we talked about on the show in the past is like not bet like not betting best price. So if you could bet like the not best price at a you know, somewhere, then that probably looks better just in a vacuum, betting close to the the kickoff, not being the only thing you're doing, like putting a wide array of stuff in would be like some of the the basics, I would think here.

SPEAKER_02 1:11:53

Are you thinking about in terms of like betting into or like being on a PM or into sports books?

SPEAKER_01 1:12:01

I mean, I would it's a good it's a good point. I mean, obviously, like in my head it matters more on like into sports books. Um, but maybe this is asked from like a PM perspective. I think, I mean, I think if it was a PM perspective, like it's it's challenging. Um it's challenging in ways and not challenging in ways, right? Obviously, like we don't have the user IDs, so that is like a big benefit to you, but also like you, for example, are probably trying much harder to figure out what is going on with every like big uh parlay you get than some of the OSBs.

SPEAKER_02 1:12:43

Yeah, well, I mean there are user IDs on parlays.

SPEAKER_01 1:12:48

That's true for parlays.

SPEAKER_02 1:12:49

So that that would almost be my recommendation. It's like, should I put it in parlays? I'm almost like, no. Like, like immediate that's like almost even more risky. Like if you're past, like being passive on the order book and reloading is always gonna be like iceberging passively, I think, is always gonna be like the lowest information way to get down, but you're all also like the most unit's the most uncertain you will be that you will get down too, because somebody could jump you in queue or like load up behind you, and then you can't keep iceberging or price improve you, or nobody comes to fill it. So, like depending on what the angle is and how good it is, like you like a lot of a lot of people in like traditional finance will get into positions um over a long time. And they'll like try and buy buy and you know, buy it in in kind of waves, and they'll even have like automated buying that like kind of throughout the day like comes in and buys at certain prices or tries to achieve like a certain volume weighted price. Um so like just that that theory of like accumulating and and not trying to show too much at any point, um, whether that be like exposing your your idea to a parlay where you know somebody well on the other side has a user ID, or if it's you know, exposing a big order in the in the order book or taking for a big size, like all three things are kind of like signs. So it's just you know avoiding that type of thing.

SPEAKER_01 1:14:27

All right, next one from from uh friend of the show, Maple. You dropped into the year 2040. PMs are still legal, but have more regulation passed. Can't make a bunch on Super Bowl halftime shows and survivor insight info, responsible gaming regulations increase. Several more institutions are in the mix. You have one million to work with. How likely are you to make 400k plus? Um, I I wonder if our answers are gonna be different here. I sort of think they are.

SPEAKER_02 1:14:55

Um, I think you're way more likely than me.

SPEAKER_01 1:15:01

You I I think it's very I I answered like zero percent.

SPEAKER_02 1:15:05

Like you think zero? So the way I 2040, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:15:10

The way I would answer this is like you're either gonna be like exchanges are good right now because they're in my this is just my opinion. Exchanges are good right now because they're new, not because this is like something that's always just gonna be like good for quote unquote normal people. I think the true thing is the people who are like quote unquote normal today are gonna be like the big winners in this long term. So like that part, like there are gonna be there are people who are just like, yeah, like the normal people who you know are gonna like just keep growing and get really, really good at this. And they are gonna be like the institutions in 2040, effectively. Um, but like I can't imagine a world where 2040, some some sort of like random, random guy can just load up and make 400k nearly as easily as it. I'm not saying it's I'm not trying to make it seem like it's easier or whatever, but like it will be much, much, much harder, I would think, in 2040 than it is now.

SPEAKER_02 1:16:17

So I did I did DM with Maple about some specifics of this question. So like I think as it stands, like if it's just me and it's 2040, I agree. Uh it feels like I'm probably drawing dead. Um, but I said, like, I mean, do I have my you know, the people I work with? Like, do I have a team or or whatever? Like, I think like it's very likely on like a per head basis we would return that in 2040 if we kept going.

SPEAKER_01 1:16:50

But like that's what I'm saying. Like you you are like going to make this like your like you are making this like your thing, right? So obviously, yeah, nobody knows how it's gonna work out, but like if you keep having success, like you will be, I'm not saying like in institution or whatever, but like you will be a large player in this space. If if you were to do this from now to 2040, like oh boy, like you're either gonna you you will have to have become like something has to have happened, right? Like right, like you will, if you're still in this by 2040, like you would have had to have done well, I guess is what I'm saying.

SPEAKER_02 1:17:25

Something had to have gone really well.

SPEAKER_01 1:17:26

Yeah, that's exactly like it's not, yeah. So like from that perspective, like I think there are gonna be like big winners, but I guess like the way I was answering the question is like my skill set today, if I just like dropped into 2040 and had to compete with your group who has grown for like to just use your example, like your group who has grown for now 15 years, like I'm not gonna win.

SPEAKER_02 1:17:52

Like it's just yeah, so yeah, that's how I feel. I was like, yeah, exactly. So if it's just me, like if you give me a million dollar calories balance in 2040 and it's just me. I don't think so.

SPEAKER_01 1:18:04

Well, the other thing is, you know, a million dollars in 400k is gonna be like 20 in 2020.

SPEAKER_02 1:18:10

That's a good point. That's a good point. So you would be able to do less liquid, less liquid markets, but yeah, yeah, we'll do inflation adjusted for maple, but I agree with you. Okay, this one's for you, so I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna ask it to you. This is from uh, you know, I'd say kind of a niche celebrity, prediction market trader. Um, every now and then I see uh sports projection sneaking on to the mentionslash culture leaderboard. What has he been doing and how has his experience been in those markets versus sports?

SPEAKER_01 1:18:47

Um, so I I for for mentions uh recently it's primarily been uh World Cup stuff um for culture, it's been a variety of things. I I don't want to get like too too much into it, but a variety of things. I think um it's stuff I've talked about though. Like one of the things I said on this podcast is like I've gone into some of those markets and have just seen like stuff is like quoted with one cent width that just should not be quoted with one cent width. Like you're just never gonna, I'm just never gonna believe like a mentioned market on a World Cup game should be quoting the same width as the World Cup game itself. That just doesn't, there's like fundamentally something wrong with that. And there's just like clearly copy traders and all the penny jumpers, and I think that just presents opportunity. So um I think those are that's been like what I've primarily been doing, like in those. I think with me on paternity leave, I've had more, you know, more time in the sense of like in between times, you know, with that to like look at some of these. Um and like there's just like things that are fundamentally wrong in these these markets every day. Like I think the way I I think about it is with my limited time, I'm only trying to pick out the markets where there's like actual liquidity, like a lot of liquidity. Um, and the reason is just those markets are not attractive to me unless there's like a ton of recreational people. So, like the World Cup mentions, for example, are interesting to me because they're getting like tons of volume. Um, you know, like the hot dog contest was interesting. I don't even know what that classified as. I don't know if that was culture, sports, or whatever that was, but that was another one where I I spent a decent amount of time in stuff. Um so like all that stuff where there's a ton of recreational liquidity. Um, I've done a little bit of politics on the mentioned stuff, but not a ton. Um what has he been doing? In terms of what I've been doing, I guess like those are some of the markets in terms of like what I'm doing. Like this is gonna sound sort of like a joke, but like legitimately, the first thing I'll do is if there's a ton, I'll look for markets like that that have a ton of volume. If they have a ton of volume, I will go in there and I will just look at the comments. And if the comments, like if there's like prevailing comments where I'm like, this is about the dumbest thing I've ever read, this has to be wrong, then I'll that's where I'll focus. So like if people are the great thing about Calci is when someone comments, it has their position. Like, I I think by default it posts your position. And so if I see all these comments with people on these certain strikes where I'm like, that has to be wrong. Um, that's honestly just like it's not like an auto trade against it, but it's like this probably is not correct. Um, and so it's it's stuff like that. I look for the spots really where it honestly seems like like Calci is like baiting their users. So like I could give an example, like, you know, maybe this will be, you know, I'll go for go. I think I'm 0-3 public uh mention marketing voice. Yeah, um, but like, for example, uh the strike Trump is is trading tonight on the World Cup game. Like with the red card with the Balogun and all this stuff, like it's clearly like a bait to a certain subset of people who think like they are for sure gonna say Trump. Um, I don't necessarily know like what the fare is, but I'm quite confident.

SPEAKER_03 1:22:27

What's the market?

SPEAKER_01 1:22:29

The market right now is 20 cents. So you think it's 20% chance? I think that's again, I could go, I could, you know, I could go lose this, but I think that's pretty ludicrous. I think it's like under 2% chance that they mentioned Trump in that specific like Trump as the president. No, you could obviously use word the word Trump as other ways, right? Um, like just as a word. Yeah. But like there's no way it's 20% likelihood that they say Trump. So like the honestly, that's what I'm doing. I'm trying to pick like the lowest hanging fruit. I'm not trying to be smart, I'm just trying to pick like where I think the most recreational people are gonna come in. Like I I've looked at the politics mentions before, and I know like Bitcoin, for example, is one that just is never priced fair. Um, because like in these markets, the last thing I was saying is because I've been going a while. Like in these markets, effectively every day you have like this Mexico, England situation where you have so much money on one side, and you know, might be sitting there saying, well, there's not that much money in the market. Well, what matters is the amount of recreational money relative to sophisticated money that's being the other side. And like in Mexico, England, there is like hundreds of millions of dollars willing to take the other side and it and it still overwhelmed it. In these markets, like there's probably like a couple hundred thousand worth of bankrolls or something that like are willing to back stuff out of and eventually they have to say like no more. You gotta talk about it. And so, like when you get these situations like Trump tonight or whatever, it's just like it's gonna run out of control. It just has to. There's not there's like not enough people who are like competitively making mentions or any of these culture things. So that's really what I'm doing.

SPEAKER_02 1:24:15

I love it. Okay, well, I'll make sure to cut this if uh they start off by saying, thanks to Donald Trump. We got a red card over.

SPEAKER_01 1:24:26

If they do say that, it it would probably trigger so many people. So I don't I, you know, it'd be it'd be fine. That's true. Yeah, you know, you want I love how they're like, you know, FIFA's like it absolutely, we have a process, you know, politics does not take a part, and Trump's over here like tweeting out, like, thank you. I did it. You're welcome, America.

SPEAKER_02 1:24:45

Well, I think like the this is the thing, and this is gonna be a non-political comment because I think everybody would agree with me. No matter what side of the aisle you sit on, if you think about the best US president to get a red card overturned in a sporting event, it has to be Trump.

SPEAKER_00 1:25:04

You we're I mean one of one. He he's he's he's one he's one and oh, nobody else, nobody else has it. So it has to be so good.

SPEAKER_02 1:25:13

So that's uh you know, that's uh something we can we can all agree on. But uh all right, let's hit let's hit ROI guy. I really like this. This question really made kind of stopped me for a second. I was like, oh wow, I did not think of this. ROI guy says, how big of a trading advantage do you get by being able to see specific customer info? Um for non-RFQ, traditional sports books can see which customer made which trades, and market makers on PMs cannot. Um and I'll pause there as I was like, yeah, so initially, my think my my initial thought is like huge advantage. It makes you so much it's makes you so much better at trading, right? Um so that's not controversial, but then he asks, how how much does that matter, and does that ever make PM lines less sharp? So like prediction markets are always gonna be able to see the sportsbook lines, so there's obviously that information is still kind of getting into the market, but I do think it's an important um I think it's a good question on like who has a better understanding of the of the true fare uh because I could believe that somebody at you know FanDuel or you know whoever's taking the most money um on the the World Cup or or whatever, with properly labeled customers has a better idea of the true fare. They might not what line they post might be because they understand the true fare and it's shaded or something like that. Um and that's the line the market sees. So like so yeah, I mean I I I think there's this is a very good point that there there can be a situation here where like I I do think through time like the prediction markets will still trend to be the sharper line, but as far as like who uh has the best understanding of the true true fare, like maybe it would be the head um trader at a certain you know at like the highest volume sports book, for example. Um so I thought that was a great question.

SPEAKER_01 1:27:32

Yeah, I I I agree with you, like your line of thinking. I think whoever like long term, whoever sees the most bets, whether that's prediction markets or OSB or whatever, like I think they're gonna have the best idea of the true fair. Um so yeah, I mean like there's no there's sports rich don't post a true fair all the time. Like just like on just like you know, the way Calci like gets pushed in in direction. It's like sports books are not stupid. Like they know they they certainly book to sides too. Um so and they have like they have a you know what they have the benefit of like not this hive mind. You could call that a benefit or a non-benefit, but like they have like all the information in front of them and they're making like a single decision. Whereas when you when you say like who's sharper, you know, prediction markets or whatever, like it's like a conglomerate of a bunch of small piece people or people who have pieces of the information. And it's not like we're all getting together and saying, like, here's the best I took here, here's the sizes, here's the you know, like all that. And so um, that has positive and positives and negatives if you're trying to think of like who has actually the the truth fair.

SPEAKER_02 1:28:50

Yeah, yeah. I that's a great question. Uh Mr. Nobody, we got Mr. Nobody. He says feels like there's a theme of betting partners uh no longer being as necessary, if at all, for most with the amount of opportunities on PMs and exchanges. How do you think this will affect the dynamics of the quote unquote sharp space overall? And what connections are the most important to make now? That's a great question. I think because I was thinking about like the sharp space, like what percent of like the old sharp space was mainly people like moving for other people or like trying to get accounts and whatnot. I think that was like a pretty big pretty big percent of it. You know, I think it's been talked about, but you know, how many people who are truly like beating the market on their on their own, like are there out there? Um not to say like you can't you have to be originator to win on PMs, but the moving aspect of it certainly was like a big aspect of sharp betting. Um and like I don't know, yeah, it definitely feels like it's it's really died down.

SPEAKER_01 1:30:03

Yeah, I mean I know or I don't know firsthand, but I've I've heard people talk about like how um, you know, like the PPH industry or whatever has gotten much smaller in states that have legalized. So it'll be interesting, you know, like if you have prediction markets in all states, like you the people going to PPHs, like if you're like a PPH bookie, like your customer base is probably just gonna keep deteriorating and be like a worse and worse customer base, meaning it's just gonna be a little more yeah, like who what recreational players coming there if they can bet on Calci or whatever.

SPEAKER_02 1:30:37

Yeah, either they need the credit, so they can't pay you, or they're sharp.

SPEAKER_01 1:30:40

Or they're sharp. Like, yeah, it's just like a death spiral for them. I think, you know, I think it'll basically the space, if it continues this way, will um it'll just keep attracting like the academic y smart person, um, like technically smart person rather than like the street smarts person, because you know, what prediction markets do is they sort of remove a lot of the barriers to entry of like if you're like just like a really sharp college kid to make a lot of money sports betting, like you needed to do a bunch of different things if you're just like a really smart you know kid out of college. Now, if you're like a really smart kid out of college, all you really need is money, and then you can make a lot of money, right? Like money to trade, I mean. Um, you don't need like connections and all these things. Um, so it's much more like it's basically just removes a barrier to entry and makes it much more of a level come uh playing field where like the best ideas are gonna win. And so I think that just attracts like a different type of person than you know, like historical sports betting. Like, you know, there's gonna be less people who are like, you know, have like fun nicknames, like you know, Wally the Juggernaut Thompson or whatever. Like, we're not gonna have Wally the Juggernaut Thompson.

SPEAKER_02 1:32:05

There is a tiny Titanic Thompson back in the day.

SPEAKER_01 1:32:08

I was trying to not, I was trying to give a nickname, but you didn't piss someone off. I I I honestly don't know any nicknames, so I was trying to make something up. Um, but uh yeah, I think there's gonna be like less of that, which honestly is a little sad. Like it'll be it'll be you know less less less cool, maybe more academic.

SPEAKER_02 1:32:29

Yeah, I mean I think I think it's bittersweet on that. Like part of why I like it is I do think that it kind of strips away some of the stuff that feels like too adjacent to the skill. And like, like you said, the best ideas are gonna win. I think like the best people are gonna win at a way higher rate, but then it or like way, way more money, but there'll be fewer, I think, is kind of the idea of what of what's gonna happen. Um so like I think on one hand, like I think there's something good about that that you're just out there kind of duking it out. Um and but on the other hand, like I kind of grew up with a romanticized view of the industry. I haven't necessarily lost it. Like, I love the industry and I love the betting industry. Love Vegas, excited to go for bet bash and everything. But like, you know, we saw it happen in poker, um, where it went from like characters like Titanic Thompson and Puggy, Puggy Pearson, and Armarilla Amarillo Slim. Those are all like real people from the heyday of poker. Um to now it's like you know, like eight Eastern Europeans and like like an American who like meditates and like saunas like at at every like final high roller final table. Um so yeah, there's some some sadness to it. You lose a little bit of the room. But what what people like how you should be networking to that point, I think you should just be networking with people that it's the same idea as like when the poker, like online poker heyday, like networking with people who are in there doing this who might not have a team or whatnot, and you can like build your skills faster because now what's gonna matter is like your skills. Um, and you just want to get in a group of people you can exchange ideas with. It's it's not gonna be as much like I need you to like go bad on DraftKings or whatever. Like, now's the time to find a couple people um who are committed to like learning about this and you know bouncing ideas off of each other because you will it it will like make the whole it that that to some of the parts is greater than the whole like as long as you don't you know go blasting every alpha you have like across all of Twitter, if you find a group and they're passionate about it and you're passionate about it, and you you know work together um to kind of all accelerate your skill development, I think that's the networking now, as opposed to getting accounts.

SPEAKER_01 1:35:14

I agree with that 100%. Um, next one from Jay Rapp. What's your take on the fee structure for managing outside capital on prediction markets just closed his first investor? I think I I've not really considered this. I don't know if like you've had discussions like this or have given it thought.

SPEAKER_02 1:35:35

Yeah, I mean we've definitely like had inquiries. Um we've not taken any investors, we don't really want any investors. Like for us, the only thing we've considered is just like paying a high premium on debt. Like, give us some money and we'll give you like a good interest rate back. But like, I don't want anybody having like a piece of the PL or anything, anything like that. Um that's the only thing like I think that makes any sense. Um, I don't yeah, I don't really know why we would take investors as far as like a traditional fund. So like a traditional fund, they always say like two and twenty, like a hedge fund, it's gonna be two percent you just charged on however many how what assets under management and then twenty percent of the fees. So that like certainly that's just like off the table. Like I I can't imagine like why I would you would do that because the money's like you you can just like you can just grow your bank role in prediction markets right now. Like now is the time. Like you you want to have the whole piece of the pie. You don't want to be bogged down with talking to investors, writing updates, going through the filings, like like all of this to me just feels like completely unnecessary. Um because you don't need the these markets aren't at the point where like they're taking you know hundreds of millions of dollars. So I think what you should be setting yourself up to have like the whole pie, um, and then just keep and grow it. Because right now you can do that and you can flip your bankroll at such high velocity that like the idea of investors, like yeah, hasn't really crossed my my mind. I mean, like I'm gonna do that.

SPEAKER_01 1:37:25

Let me push back because I think you're in a different situation. Let's say I was uh let's say I had a twenty thousand dollar bankroll, but I was like really really into this, really gifted, and I thought I had like really good RFK solution, for example. Like, do you would you still give that advice?

SPEAKER_02 1:37:44

Or man, I might just say like give it a try. Um right?

SPEAKER_01 1:37:52

Like I guess the balance I'm saying in my head is like it's really good now. I don't think anybody knows how long it's gonna be really good for, and is there benefits to decide like you you're at a different place, you obviously have like more capital. To me, this is very much dependent on how much you can use the capital you have, like in your own bank role versus and like I don't know how much more it's dependent. Like, I think the way you're saying that is you don't feel like you could do that much more with yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:38:25

Well, I just think like also I would never like the how much I view our the equity costing, like there's just no way I would ever sell it over over debt, you know. Like, like I I just can't think of a situation where like I couldn't get debt as a better deal than than equity. That makes sense. That's a fair that's a fair but if I were to raise um and I were to raise equity, what I would do is I would at least anchor to like the insider trading funds of the 2008 and nines, like Steve Cohen, who charged 50% on investment. Because the amount of money in return that you can make in PMs, like when Steve Cohen was at his his peak running basically an insider trading operation, they were doing like a hundred percent return a year. The prediction market traders are doing way more than that, so so like so you have to aim higher than two in 20 is what I would say if you were to do equity, like you should charge a lot or get debt. But I I you know, or or bootstrap it. I think all three are fine. Like, like if I'm thinking like if if you if you're getting 70% of profits, you know, I think okay, well, you know, that could be interesting. Like, not again, like I think some of it comes down to how much you want to deal with investors, but like in that situation, if you have 20 grand but a good RFQ solution and you get 70% of profits, then I'm starting to to think that's possible. There's a price rate for anything. Um, so yeah, what what I would do is I would not anchor at all to traditional hedge fund pricing because that's on super liquid markets that doesn't, you know, aren't they not expecting to get you know more than 20% a year? Like that would be a great year. So, you know, make sure to not anchor to the traditional finance rates.

SPEAKER_01 1:40:23

Okay, I think that was all good advice. I'm glad I asked the follow-up. Let's do DBs um first and then we'll do Calvin's to end us off. DBs was what would need to happen in PMs and exchanges to seriously make you consider being predominantly a taker again. Um I can go first. For me, it would probably like one, the fees would need to get less onerous because it's just challenging right now, in depending on what prediction market we're talking about. Two, tick sizes would probably need to get smaller. I'm not saying to do that, but that's probably what would need to happen. Um and three, there would just need to be like it probably need to get more competitive. And what I mean by that is if if if we gotta go back to Maple's question, 2040, like if I'm still trading on prediction markets, it's not like just me putting up prices and probably trading into it. It's me probably being a very selective taker into thin markets where I think there's certain mistakes is like what I would be doing.

SPEAKER_02 1:41:26

Yeah, I agree with all those. Um yeah, fees, and then yeah, you'd want some reason why like market makers were having to quote too aggressively, so like big rebates or something. Um where you could do both, you know, get the rebate, but you want to be taking. So like you want a reason why somebody could be you know stepping out and really trying to like get aggressive on the making side, that's when you can kind of flip around and be a taker. And I think you know the RFQ space is a is a space right now where you know there's definitely some I I definitely can see a path of like wanting to be a taker at some point. Um so Calvin and Hobo subbing in for Mr. Peanut Better, potentially asked question. Um, if your house was destroyed and you got a fair value insurance check for it, would you buy a new house or rent and put that insurance money into Calci?

SPEAKER_01 1:42:27

My midwit take, I know like you know, we probably have a lot of advantage player type people and like all that. My my midwit take is you should, you know, I I think it's good to buy a house. So I would probably buy the house.

SPEAKER_02 1:42:41

Yeah, I think I would have to buy the house just to stay married, but like yeah, I don't know. I mean it's a good it's a good point is then it's like, well, why don't you sell your house and put it into Calci or or whatever. Um, but yeah, I I would I I do think like I think you fight this this fight of like, well, obviously a dollar in the Calchi account's worth more than a dollar anywhere else, and like that's true, but like at a certain point you need to have dollars other places. Um, so yeah, I don't know. I know my wife listens to the pods, so I would say buy the house. No, I I would I would probably buy the house. I'll I'll be honest. Um probably buy the house because then why not?

SPEAKER_01 1:43:26

I could go raise my debt, you know, and uh yeah, you can you can you can just find the investor. Yeah, I don't I mean again it depends like how how much you could use that money, right? Like on it's all dependent on how how effectively you can get like the whole thing in play and stuff.

SPEAKER_02 1:43:44

So yeah. Yeah, I mean maybe if I had like maybe if I was the guy who who had 20 grand and then maybe I would rent. And then that would be the way I raise my money. I don't think that's necessarily that bad. Like I know this is not financial advice, you know, except you know, whatever, but like in that spot I would I would I would be like, hey, maybe can we rent for a year?

SPEAKER_01 1:44:09

This is the only podcast bold enough to tell you to take your uh insurance money that you got in your house and put it into a gambling app. We are the only ones.

SPEAKER_02 1:44:17

That's literally what I what I did with my signing bonus um in business school is I put it all into sports betting, and I knew that I would have I can't, it would be clawed back if I didn't do my year. So we're the financial advice, but you know, people have done similar things.

SPEAKER_01 1:44:38

Bold. That's a good way to end.

SPEAKER_02 1:44:41

Okay. Bayesian update. I've won. It's very uh very topical. So I think the World Cup is clearly the best sporting event in the entire world. This is including all the golf majors, it's so much better than like the Super Bowl and honestly, even the NFL playoffs, because I don't I watch I watch a little bit of soccer, um, but I really I really don't. But but I am so sucked into the World Cup, and even honestly, even if it's like not like you don't have money on it, like my wife will be watching soccer at like four, and like she has money on it technically, because but I don't you know she doesn't know her position um and whatnot. She'll just watch it to watch it. Like everybody's watching this.

SPEAKER_01 1:45:31

Up watching the Mexico game. What was she up watching the Mexico game?

SPEAKER_02 1:45:35

She was. That was uh she she knew kind of the severity of that game.

SPEAKER_01 1:45:39

Okay, wow.

SPEAKER_02 1:45:40

Wow, that was that was a you know late night game. I love this event, but uh no, no, it's incredible. Like, I I you know the how hard the players play, um how every star shows up and actually want wants to play this thing. Like, I just I can't think of a comparable event, Masters, Rider Cup, Super Bowl, whatever. Like, this is just so clearly the best event. Um, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:46:09

Uh I it's funny. Like, I you'd play an alternate reality without PMs, and I know you said even without gambling, like would you even be watching the World Cup?

SPEAKER_02 1:46:21

Yeah, I well, I mean, I did watch the the last one. I wasn't really gambling. And yeah, like I and I liked it.

SPEAKER_01 1:46:30

I yeah, I mean it it is it is a great event. I agree. I'll give it, I'll give a I didn't really have one, but I can also give a soccer one. There's all this like drama around like the offsides rules and some of these these soccer rules. My update is that like like clearly some of these rules, if you started fresh, this is not how they would design the rules. Like, I think that's very apparent. Like, if you were to design soccer from the ground up, like this is not how the rules would be. So I think the people, I guess my I'm I'm my update is like a lukewarm update. I think the people who say, like, this is the most popular game in the world, there's nothing wrong with it, yada yada. Like, that's a pretty stupid argument to me. Like, and uh, for example, like there's lots of things that are extremely popular, the most popular in the world or a country, and they change it all the time. Like the NFL is extremely popular, they're changing it all the time. All the sports, like baseball was super popular in the 90s, they've had to change it all the time. So, like that's just that's that like clearly, like they would not design, in my opinion, like the offsides or some of these like touch fouls in the box if if they were doing it from like square one, like the penalty is like far too onerous. But also, like there's there's something good about a little randomness where just you just swing your leg and you hit someone in the leg, and now you have a penalty.

SPEAKER_02 1:47:52

Like, obviously, everyone's David Kane did by himself yesterday, he's punishable by jail.

SPEAKER_01 1:47:58

I guess I mean that it's obviously every time that happens, you are so tilted as a maker because you just know like this is bad for me almost always. Right. But you know, there's nothing wrong with a little randomness where things happen. So, you know, that's that's what sports are. So I I guess my update is that I'm okay with the rules, but clearly, like anybody arguing that like they couldn't be improved is also like I don't buy that. Because here's here's my last thing. The thing on the offside, people, the argument is like wherever you move it, like it could still be decided by one inch, but that's not the point. The point is that like it's not in the spirit of like the rule currently. Like if someone's kneecap, you know, like it just doesn't.

SPEAKER_02 1:48:44

It's not designed when VAR didn't exist, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:48:46

But like so it's just like not in the spirit of the rule. So like I get that it would still be like a centimeter or whatever, like if it was the whole body, but it would follow the spirit, like your eye would see it, and you'd be like, that's offsides, which like follows the spirit of the game, right? Whereas now it's like I have no idea if he was offsides or not every time a goal is scored.

SPEAKER_02 1:49:08

That was the best, the best tweet. I don't know if I already said this, but it was like it's like, you know, I don't understand why it's so hard for the Americans to like know the offsides rule. Like, it's pretty simple. If anything cool happens, that's offsides.

SPEAKER_01 1:49:24

Exactly. I mean, it's just it's just bad, you know, it makes the watching a little bit worse. But again, like it, you know, it adds another layer. It's like a goal score, you get excited, and then you get double the sweat because you're like, was it actually a goal every time?

SPEAKER_02 1:49:38

So you know, it's it feels just like a battle out there, like like it's just it is like the swings and like you know, they're just beating each other back and forth, and there's all this momentum to like physicality that goes on, and then like the cards coming up, or like people could not get a card for punching someone in the face and get a card for like, yeah, it doesn't feel like it feels like just so chaotic, but there is something nice about that. Like it is there's something kind of fun about that.

SPEAKER_00 1:50:09

Yeah, I I agree I've enjoyed it.

SPEAKER_02 1:50:11

All right, so we've officially decided soccer is cool. Um, yeah, thanks everybody for listening and for the questions. Uh, you have anything, SP?

SPEAKER_01 1:50:22

No, um, I guess we're about a month away. We are gonna be at Bet Bash. If people have suggestions andor thoughts on what we should do for that, um let us know. Or if you want to meet up, let us know. We'll both be there.

SPEAKER_02 1:50:37

Absolutely. All right. Well, thanks everybody. We will see you on the next episode.