(48) What the CMHC 26-28 Outlook Means for GTA Developers - Jordan Nanowski

2026-2028 GTA Market Outlook According to CMHC - Jordan Nanowski

00:00 Welcome + CMHC Forecast Episode Setup (2026–2028 Focus)
01:38 Meet Jordan Nanowski: CMHC’s GTA Lead Economist
03:46 What CMHC Economists Actually Do (Forecasting vs. Programs)
04:44 How the Forecast Is Built: Models, Stakeholders & Scenario Risks
07:57 The Big Macro Wildcard: USMCA/Tariffs & Uncertainty Across Canada
13:25 Why the GTA Is Different: Pandemic-Era Perfect Storm
16:00 Condo Supply Glut, Investor Math & The Future of Small Units
20:44 Report Takeaways: Slow Growth, Construction Labor Cycles & ‘Supply Kinks’
27:03 Foreign Buyer Ban & Policy Levers: Why Investment Pulled Back
27:53 Pandemic Rate Cuts, Inflation Tradeoffs & Immigration Balancing Act
30:34 GTA Forecast: 2026 Price Bottom, 2027 Recovery & Condo Domino Effects
34:12 Downside Risks: Trade Uncertainty (CUSMA) as the Big Forecast Driver
36:05 Developer Playbook: Stress-Testing PBRs & Missing Middle for the Next 3 Years
38:05 Rental Market Reality Check: Vacancy, Rent Assumptions & Migration Shifts
41:32 Leading Indicators to Watch: Inventory, Starts, Completions & Permits
46:12 Wrap-Up: Nation-Building Optimism, Magic Wand Wish & Resilience Ahead

#RealEstate #HousingMarket #RealEstateDevelopment #UrbanDevelopment #CityBuilding #MissingMiddle #InfillDevelopment #PurposeBuiltRental #Multifamily 

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Transcript

payam_1_02-12-2026_135019 0:00

Hello everyone, and welcome to another episode of the Real Estate Development Insights podcast, where we bring you ideas, experiences, and best practices from the real estate development industry. My name is Payam Noursalehi. I'm the president of Dena Project Management, a construction and project management firm that helps real estate developers define design, and deliver successful projects. my guest for this episode is Jordan Nanowski. Jordan is CMHC'S lead economist and spokesperson for the greater Toronto area housing market. He provides forecast analysis and commentary on development in the resale, rental and new home markets. Previously he worked as an international development economist And has published multiple academic papers in this field. For those of you who are not familiar with CMHC, CMHC is a Crown Corporation in Canada, and CMHC stands for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. In this episode, I talk to Jordan about the report that just came out recently about the forecast on the housing market in Canada, and particularly of our interest in GTA and Ontario section for the 2026 to 2028. period, and we're gonna dive into the trends, the numbers, and some of the stats that are, provided in this report. And I hope you find it very useful. As always, you can find all the information about this podcast episode, our guest on our website, real estate development insights.com, realestate development insights.com. That's all one phrase, and I hope you enjoy listening. Please don't forget to subscribe and also preferably tell others about us and help us go the show. Thank you.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 1:38

Hey, Jordan, welcome to the show. How are you doing today?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 1:41

hey Payam. Thanks

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 1:42

Thanks for having me. I'm doing great.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 1:44

it's a little bit

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 1:44

A little bit warmer now.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 1:46

for that.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 1:46

Fantastic. Yes, we're, we're definitely getting toward the end of the shoveling season, which I really look forward to.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 1:54

Yeah, in any of that. I live in a condo, but if I did be much more grateful that

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 1:59

I think I sh I shoveled for the both of us, so that's okay. I'll take that burden. why don't we start by you introducing yourself to our audience. Who's Jordan, what do you do? And go from there. Sure.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 2:09

Yeah, sure. I'll keep it, short and sweet. My name is Jordan Danowski. I'm the lead CMHC, economist and spokesperson for the Greater Toronto Area Housing Market. I've been working with the CMHC since 2017 and throughout most of that, covering the GTA in some capacity, so I'm glad to be focused on the center of the universe within Canada at least, and it's a lot of fun, US economists, some of the stuff we focus on or get really interested in. It's very like ivory tower, very, it's hard to convey it to or get the average person interested in it, but I feel like real estate's just such a topic that like virtually everyone is interested in, at least in Canada. And, people love talking about it. So it's great to have that as the focus of my analysis.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 2:51

Yeah, we definitely feel the effects good. the good, the bad, and the ugly of, um, pretty much the economic effect of the real estate, the industry as a whole, and the construction sector for that matter, which is a big part of what we do. I'm curious, is this a normal path for an economist to fall into real estate development and housing market? Or is this something that happened by chance?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 3:13

a little bit by chance, and I'm grateful for that. I love, the industry I'm in. I think as an economist you have a wide range of, fields you can go into, which is really cool. And I'm grateful that I just found myself in, in housing because again, it's something that it, it's much easier to talk about, housing economics at the Thanksgiving table than it is to like global macroeconomic policy and, stuff like that.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 3:38

I was just gonna say, you're probably one of the very few. Popular economists at a dinner table like they did, people really want to talk to you about. So with that being said, and I do want to talk quite a bit about the report that just came out, uh, a couple days ago, and we're gonna go through that. But there's one distinction that, when you and I were talking offline, you made, which I think is also important for our audience to appreciate is that we, in Toronto right now in the rental purpose-built rental market in the multiplex market, we hear CMHC, or at least I hear CMHC multiple times a day in terms of their role, in the financing of these smaller projects. To be clear, what you do doesn't and has nothing to do with the program. So we're not gonna ask you. The reason I'm not gonna ask you about the programs itself is that's not your department and we're just gonna talk about data market analysis, trends and stuff like that. Is that cool?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 4:30

yeah, no, that's perfect. That's I'm very much shoeboxed into kind of the GTA housing market and what makes it like tick and how, like what's going on and how everything's gonna progress. And less so on the kind of specific program side. So that works

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 4:43

Okay, perfect. So let's dive into that. We established that you look at the numbers that you come up with market trends and forecast analysis. Can you walk us maybe through how you do that? Because then I think that how, would bleed and open up a whole bunch of other conversations that we go from there. how do you guys come up with these trends? how do you, track these metrics? And we go from there.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 5:04

yeah, so it's something I just do entirely from start to fit. no, it's, I'm blessed with, we have a very big kind of, division with a lot of economists that work on the macro side. We do analysis, at the national level at all major CMA levels at the provincial level as well. it's a team of a lot of macro economists, and then you have myself and then the GTA has a few other economists that kind of go through all the data for, at even like the micro level for like different, different, CMAs across Ontario and stuff. So it's a wide team. we work quite closely with our kind of national forecasters to get understand what's going on there, because ultimately. driving a lot of stuff across every, like the GTA has a lot of unique things that make it different from the other, major CMAs across the country. But the one thing that we all have in common right now is larger macroeconomic factors that are outside of the constraints of each individual, city, right? it's a lot of economists doing a lot of, analyses at different levels. Mine. I used to be the one kind of like deep in the weeds and running the regressions and doing the modeling. I'm not that individual now. Luckily, a lot of my job is, getting market intelligence, meeting with stakeholders, learning stuff like that, being the bridge between kind of our actual modelers and analysts and outside of the ivory tower and working with them to figure out exactly what's going on. And so we're meeting both qua, quantitative and qualitative and, pushing out those forecasts that

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 6:27

so that's where I wanna go with this because I think the conversation that we're gonna have is gonna hopefully have a great impact on shaping the decisions for a whole bunch of our listeners in terms of what they do over the next few. Years. So I think it's important for them to also understand the background of how this, these numbers, these trends, these forecasts coming up. And in other words, like it's, it's a forecast. It's not a prediction. it's, some part, I guess I'll leave it up to you to correct me, but it's probably part guess, part part science, part art, combined together the three of them. And, with that being said, then I wanna ask you to give us in a nutshell what your report of many, many pages that came out a few days ago. Give us the nutshell then. I have whole bunch of passages from that report that I wanted to dive into with you.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 7:14

Sure. And I think that's a fair assessment of forecasting, forecasting in essence is, let's say educated guess, right? And you're using a lot of like models, a lot of kind of qualitative stuff, a lot of everything. but ultimately it's always fluid, right? And there's certain, kind of environments where the situation's even more fluid. And we can bring, do a bunch of scenario analysis. We can look at in, in our report we have like risks to the forecast, right? In times where unpredictability is the norm, for, it's really hard to forecast, but it's still very valuable to put a forecast out, right? Because, if you're trying to guide your way through, turbulent waters, like some, like a flashlight's still better than nothing, right? so that's you're on the, you're on point with, like forecasting there. So in terms of this report, broad sense, it's the situation still, again, fluid and a bit tough and is largely dependent, at least if we're signing at the pure macro level. And then I'm gonna drill down to what that means in the GTA, it's largely dependent on uzma negotiations, right? And the effective tariff rate that we face. And, that impacts Ontario. luckily the

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 8:19

So can you elaborate what's Uzma for those audience who don't know?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 8:23

I, that is our NAFTA 2.0 trade agreement, with, that is, that involves the US and Mexico. that is

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 8:29

Thank you.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 8:30

up for renegotiation currently. It protects us from a lot of the, tariffs that are being imposed on us right now. I think, a lot of,'cause it's an estimate, but, a lot of, analysts estimate the effective tariff rate, something at about 6% now, that we're facing nationwide, for, good exports to the United States that, forecasters have that range being anywhere between, following sma, 0% and 20%. So it's a wide range with very large impacts, but that's ultimately. the elephant in the room right now. And that impacts, certain CMAs in Ontario specifically more than others, like luckily in the GTA, were slightly sheltered from that. I believe there was, some estimates have it that about 12.5% of our GDP is reliant, to good exports to the United States, whereas like it can get up to 60% for Windsor, is, quite substantial. So the macroeconomic backdrop. There's just a lot of uncertainty that's impacting everything from the, consumer to the business, to the investor, to everyone. And I'm sure you feel it as well, right? it's a funny thing because you don't need to even actually impose tariffs or act on certain trade threats. it's just the act of make, making that statement, puts, a wrench in the machine a little bit, right? So what does that mean, for the GTA as a whole?

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 9:45

Sorry, before, before you go to GTA. So let's talk about the national, right?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 9:49

Sure.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 9:50

the biggest elephant in the room, as you said, is our southern neighbor. If what, it is what they do or what they say they would do, which not necessarily are the same at, at all times. It could be different. and I guess the other part of that comment you made is that depending where you are, which sec, which sector you're in and what you do for a living, you could be affected between zero. Percent or up to 60%, that's very variable. Like at the end of the day, if you live in Windsor and you're fully affected by this potential tariffs or uncertainty for the tariffs, because you're right, like that's the other thing that we're seeing in the market is that a lot of people are just sitting, like we have, we've had clients or conversations that ready and they were supposed to move, and all of a sudden they say, you know what? Let's wait a few months. Let's just see what happens. And it, it's, there's no necessarily logical, rational behind it as if, okay, March 1st is something is gonna happen or not. It's just a feeling and it's, it's a feeling of comfort that people are not moving. And, before we dive into GTA, what is, what is a CMA, sorry. You, you refer to CMA few times

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 10:54

a CMAs, like a term that like is used by stats can law and us it's just census metropolitan area it's just what,

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 11:01

like a city or,

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 11:02

GTA. Yeah. It's

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 11:03

gotcha.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 11:04

not just the city of Toronto, but that include like Mississauga and Brampton and everything.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 11:09

Okay. So then with that, clarify, then let's talk, let's dive into, maybe we'll talk a little bit on the professional level. because what I read on the report was that basically, BC and Ontario are hit the most. And, I'm just gonna come out and say it that for the, like for anyone who wants to go and read the report, that is not a very fun read. It's a very somewhat somber read, if you may. And, but, if you're in Ontario, probably worst case or worst impacted, or BC a little bit better. And then, but there are parts of the country who seem to be doing actually good and like even better than good. Can we talk about that a little bit?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 11:48

So

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 11:49

So that's where I,

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 11:50

shift my focus back to the GTA. So we have colleagues that are the lead economists,

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 11:54

okay.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 11:54

of these giants regions. So like I can't, speak to as much of like how Halifax is doing it. and what I do know about these regions is like if it's like relevant to the GTA specifically. So right now when I was joking that, the center of the universe within Canada, it's, it is in that like we have a unique thing where we had like a structural kink in our supply chain, right? That, there'd be softness in the condo market regardless of trade tensions, right? It's just now

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 12:22

Oh, I see.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 12:23

that on top,

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 12:24

so that elephant didn't really cause this obviously, and it has nothing to do with that, is what you're saying,

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 12:29

it has nothing to do with that specifically. it's definitely substantial and exacerbating a lot of stuff. it's, if, If you had a bit of a tummy ache and then someone punch you really hard in the stomach, doesn't help,

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 12:39

that wouldn't be a good thing? yes.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 12:41

it just adds on to the challenges and, before any of these trade tensions, happened, like a lot of forecasters expected, a lot of stuff to improve even on the resale side, whatever they exp we still expected the condo market to be sluggish, but we expected broad improvements elsewhere. Now it's ex exceptionally hard when, nationwide, 70% or up of our, good exports are to the United States. It accounts for something like one fifth of the national GDP. This is like a very significant, so I don't wanna downplay kind of the of the kind of geopolitical trade tensions. That's definitely like a huge exacerbator to, to, but like the GTA market had its own kind of tummy ache to begin with, it just makes, it's being made far worse now.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 13:24

Okay. Gotcha. So now let's talk about GTA. You made a comment earlier, you made two comments. One of them was, GTA being the center of universe when it comes to housing and, at least the work that you're doing, which is important work. And also you made a point about GTA being unique. Why is GTA unique.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 14:30

So, and this is the perfect storm that happened during the pandemic, right? So during the pandemic it was. And this is why it's so like important to mix qualitative and quantitative and forecasting is really tough in like a global pandemic, right? Because that was a time where every forecaster's models was just breaking, like stuff, parameters that weren't supposed to be negative were negative, all sorts of just chaos.'cause it was relatively unprecedented. Unprecedented, at least in the last couple of decades. So it was an interesting time to support the economy interest rates had to be low. So money was effectively free during that period or shortly after.'cause during the heat of the pandemic, maybe not so much, but there was a lot of immigration. We had very high immigration targets and like GT, the GTA is the sense center of the universe within Canada, for attracting, immigration. I think we get roughly like a third of all immigrants who come into Canada. Just this one big kind of, city or region. So we have very high levels of, immigration, a lot of non-permanent residents coming in at once. Very low interest rates. And then on top of that, we had an asymmetric recession. Like certain industries and stuff were impacted, certain were not, right? there were a lot of individuals who were potential home buyers that weren't really impacted at all. Like it was business as usual except businesses from your house now. So those individuals also had high savings rates.'cause you couldn't, it was harder to spend money, which is why it's funny you saw during the, like around that time, a lot of like luxury goods a huge

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 16:04

very true.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 16:05

wants a

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 16:05

Air fryers and sourdough bread cooking became a thing.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 16:09

That's fancy too. Yeah. Ev everyone loves air fryers during that time. I bought into it. I still have it. It's right behind me actually. But, so all of those pushed together. Just the fact that like Canada did. or the GTA did draw a lot of those individuals. It might have a higher percentage of, I in sectors that weren't as negatively impacted, et cetera. So you saw a lot of condos being built and we needed that housing, especially, there's a lot of immigrants, a lot of non-permanent residents coming in. The investors can rent those out too, et cetera. And investor activity drives a very large amount of condo construction, I think, if we look at our rental market survey, about 40% condos in the GTA are rented out. And that's a pro, a good proxy for an investor, right? Because they're not, owner occupying it, right? They're renting it out. So put all of those together and we just had a very large influx of condo construction and it's led to a, supply glut. And that's a funny kind of term to deal with.'cause we have a supply glut of a specific unit type amid a housing crisis, right? A housing

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 17:07

Yeah, it's a very complicated situation.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 17:09

It's very nuanced, right? and it's one of these things that now we're just dealing with the fallout from that. We have, we had record high level of under construction inventory, then we had very high level of completions and kind of the one thing that really switched stuff around, like for the housing markets, for everything where rates going up, right? There's like a perfect correlation between the average, resale housing price, and I'm sure a lot of other like new homes as well going down. The second rate started rising. and that's what we've been dealing with the last few years because from now you're an investor, right? You're a condo investor, your costs are going up, right? Your monthly outlay and rents aren't going up that much because there's a lot of supply that's entering the market. There's a large inventory of condos that are getting pushed through. 40% are rented out. so you have higher monthly outlays. Rent, weaker rank growth. And then on top of that you have weaker price appreciation.'cause before the kind of game, the kind of play in the GTA was, okay, you're gonna get, you're gonna be an investor, you're gonna have a rental condo property, it's gonna lose a bit of money every month or whatever, but the price appreciation is just gonna more than make up for it, right? So that's where you're getting that. And so now you're just not having that, the, the condo market, and we're still expecting it to see the kind of like softest growth going forward. So that's what makes us unique is it was just way more accentuated given the fact like, we have just even, let's just say immigration, that huge influx and how it asymmetrically impacts the GTA like that has led to us to have this, supply glut in a very specific unit type that ultimately. We'll see a reversal, right? Because as we can get into presales, but presales are near non-existent, right? And it's for that reason that from an investor perspective, it just doesn't really make sense. And also little kind of extra thing, with presales is you want to, there you, they're impacted more so by broad risk, right? if there is like geopolitical trade risk and stuff like that, pre-sales

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 19:07

True. Very true.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 19:09

asymmetrically, impacted by that. So again, we have this kind of supply glut in the condo market that was gonna be specific, or more accentuated in the GT that we're gonna deal with, regardless. now we have, geopolitical like trade tensions and stuff on top of

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 19:22

You, you men, you mentioned as, that we have this Glo and that at some point it's gonna reverse itself. Which kind of leads into one of the questions I wanted to ask you. to your point, we have a lot of units that are not family friendly, meaning they're small, they're sub 500 square feet or even larger than that, but they're not really suited for, even a couple with a, with one kid, let alone with more than that. what is your take on the long term?'cause we, at, at the end of the day, we have them, like, it's not going away. Like we have them currently delivered, sitting empty in the market, or we're probably gonna break the record of some sort this year, and I'm, maybe you have some numbers on that. On 2026, we're gonna get a lot of other units come to market as well. What is gonna happen in them? If you were to fast track, let's say, 1, 2, 5 years from now and say, look at, look at those. Particular class of product. Do you have any insights on that?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 20:15

So I think that, developers and the market was reacting to certain market conditions at the time to build these units, right? There was affordability, constraints, a lot of immigration, a lot of non-permanent residents, et cetera. So it made sense, right? on the flip side of that, we have. US millennials make up the largest, population demographic now, and we're entering like peak household formation stage. So there's a huge demand for kind of, units that could, better support household formation. it's hard to have a household in a, small bachelor unit, So that's gonna be a specific market segment that's gonna need to be, filled. And that's why we're seeing a bit of a stronger demand in more dense, low-rise housing. the single, the semis, the missing middles, okay, maybe not the single, but the semis, the, the rows, the missing middle housing and stuff. that's where we're seeing a lot more kind of demand shift because that just has to be serviced. So I think the market's eventually gonna, gonna pivot to that and fill that need. the tricky thing is, and I'm sure, like it is getting everything to work on the developer side, like the math to work right.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 21:17

Yeah, look, that's very true. These days. The, those are very hard to work, to make work. They were always hard to make work except for a brief period when the car condos were selling for everything you would ask for. But, um, these days, obviously condos are non-existent and even rentals, a lot of them are hard to make work. I wanna switch gears. I want to go into the report itself a little bit and I wanna talk about the report and different parts of it, and I would, and I, I do appreciate that not all of those sections you can comment on. But, uh, one of the things is basically that, um, the report as a whole expects Canada to have a expected grew. Canada's economy is expected to grow slowly in 2026. And, uh, there are a whole bunch of factors that you just touched on. And then growth is projected to improve slowly in 2027 and 2028. What does slowly mean to you in the context of our market here and, um, maybe we go from there.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 22:14

it's assuming that we have some level of tariffs and that there's some, positive or at least like the status quo at least has to be maintained, right? it's gonna be, it's gonna be tricky, but in, in the current scenario, like we, we do expect, economy to, recover a bit more pivot, right? to make that change, to, to diversify, to roll with the punches, and successfully do that. I don't know, as Canadians, we've proven quite resilient to a wide range of things, going back

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 22:38

Very true.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 22:39

right? I think that, there's a lot of stuff putting us in a decent position or good position to do that. but again, it's, it's. Subject to all of those uncertainties. And we're at a time where, uncertainties are at a extremely high level and constant subject, constantly subject to change. it's a really funny thing when I'm going into to do presentations and stuff like that, and I have to like refresh Twitter sometimes. So

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 23:03

just to see who's texting what and tweeting what, Yeah. That, so that's great. so let me rephrase that question a different way. In backend, around 2022, when we were working, we had projects on the go. Uh, I couldn't find a forming guy or mechanical contractor or many other trades who would be even willing to price a project for me because they were all too busy. I hated that as, as a builder, as a, as someone who works closely with developers, I really hated that feeling that I basically. Couldn't find anyone to do the work. So I don't, I never wish to go back to that stage, if you may. But at the same time, if you look at it from a employment and the industry, that was probably one of the peak times we had in terms of how many work, how many people were working, the shortage of workforce. Do you foresee we're ever gonna get back to that stage anytime soon? At least By the way, the looks of this report, it doesn't look like it's gonna be the next three to five years. Is that ever, is it a good state to go back to, and if so, when?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 24:03

So report typically looks like three years into horizon end, and we can see just a little bit over that corner. Given the supply dynamics, like we know that the kind of under construction convo, condo inventory is likely to get work through, let's say. 20, 28 and onwards. And then that's where there's gonna be like no new condos in the pipeline. It, given current replenishment rates and we're gonna have a market reversal. if we're thinking about the on, on the employment side, it's going to tough what you mentioned, we had a time where it, and I remember those times, I remember going to all those conferences and stuff and people were saying, it's so hard to find skilled labor. But now a lot of that labor is getting freed up, right? And. it doesn't look like they're gonna, at least within the residential construction industry, like there isn't, the new projects in the pipeline aren't getting replaced nowhere near, to the amount necessary to keep those individuals there. So you're seeing a lot of individuals move industries or go to residential construction elsewhere. And what that's going to do when I, when that kind of reversal happens is we're gonna have a lot of friction. And this is why, supply kinks aren't that great because now we're gonna have an extra hard time finding that labor because it's gone and it's moved elsewhere. So that's another thing that's, quite challenging in terms of, were conditions then idealistic in what should be going, what we should be going, towards. Like it's subjective, right? I do think that more housing's better if we can get more housing, what whatever market conditions get us more housing out there. it's fantastic because ultimately, again, we still have a housing supply shortage in Canada.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 25:31

and the way I interpret that, what you just said for myself is that there's potentially a scenario around 2030 that, uh, we want to go back to where we were or we need to go back to where we were. But first of all, we probably don't have the capacity to do that as much as we did, and we will take a while for us to build up to that capacity again probably. And we will be, it will be basically double whammy. We basically are, we want to push because we need it at the same time, we can't get enough people so it, it doesn't. It's exciting, but it's not promising, I guess is is what I'm getting. Like at the end of the day you will have workforce coming back, but it's also gonna be challenging and may, or maybe I'm just reading too much into it for the future.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 26:12

I think it just shows that there will be friction, right? Stuff doesn't, you can't just snap your fingers and get condos out of thin air. the market has different motivations and drivers, and then people responding to it have their own motivations and ways that they can respond to it. And it, it just again, highlights the, the kind of difficulties that arise when you have supply kinks like this. Like ideally you'd want supply to be more linear and predictable and responsive, but when you have these kind of kinks that we're left to, deal with the follow from them.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 26:44

So can we talk about the kinks? Because, I read the report a couple of days ago when it came out first, and I'm not gonna sugarcoat. It was quite depressing from perspective of someone who's advocating for how more construction and housing and more building. And then I read it again this morning trying to prepare for. Out for this. and so the first time I read it, it felt like I'm reading an auto autopsy report of an industry that has already died. And we're just saying, you know what, it's probably gonna be dead for a while. And then I looked at it differently this morning when I was reading it again. And I think you touched on some of that, is that, um, it's, it almost feels like we have intentionally or I don't know. that's part of the question. Did we intentionally put the industry into medically induced coma by, because the other way of looking at it is that. To your point, we have many levers that we could play with, and I, when I say we, I mean as a country, it includes the governments, it includes the Bank of Canada includes. So you have the, population growth lever, which is the immigration. You have the interest rate lever, which is the Bank of Canada's policies. You have the good old, foreign investment ban, whatever the title was, which the true to government kicked in back in 24. It was supposed, sorry, sorry, a few years back. It was supposed to expire back in 24, I believe. Then it got renewed until January 1st, 2027. I think so basically prevents non, or I can't remember what exactly it is, but it's probably non-permanent residence or foreigners to own some family houses or semis or something like that, which. Cut a lot of investments into the housing sector, right? So there are multiple things that we could do something about as a country, as a government, as Bank of Canada, but it almost feels like we're not there yet. Is that a good assessment?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 28:36

can't really comment as much on individual, they should have done this, they should have done that. But, I always viewed that like. PE people always have the best intentions. They're react, the market's reacting in a certain way. there's a lot of reasons, certain things were done, like during the pandemic, it, you, you want any sort of environment where there's like hardship on the economy. That's where you lower interest rates, right? And you're constantly playing that balance between inflation and, let's say unemployment, right? And this is like a global pheno, like ev everyone who had a lot of countries are dealing with the kind of like post pandemic inflation that was necessary to keep stuff afloat during the pandemic. Because as once productive capacity is destroyed or leaves or whatever, it's hard to get it back. It's easier to keep it on ice and then, get it going there. So that's one thing there. in terms of, population. Growth. there, there's in economics, there's no such thing as a free launch, right? You have to always do this tightrope walk of, okay, we need, immigration's fantastic for countries. It's great to have immigration. You want all sorts of skilled labor to come into your country. That's something that our neighbors to the south have a huge, huge of, right? there's like a global brain drain and we even lose a lot of productive, individuals from Canada who go to the south be because, you there's,

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 29:52

very true.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 29:52

right? so you want immigration and, you want your population growth to be a certain number to benefit the economy. But that comes at the cost of other stuff, right? now there's more housing demand and are we, are we, like how are we reacting to that and stuff? So it's like this like pretty complicated balancing equation. I think that, if you're trying to make. The decisions based on kind of the information avail available at the time. I could see a lot of the rationale got us here, right? Like even when we're talk,'cause you'll hear people say oh, like why did they develop all these small units? Like it made sense at the time, right? Like the economics of it, the demand, everything. So we gotta do the best for where we are when we're

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 30:32

Yeah. No, I a hundred percent agree with you. I guess my point was, and again, it's not pointing fingers, we're all in this together as a country. it's more so toward, because again, going back to the. report when we talk about that we are at decade low in construction, we're decade low, or sorry, in new starts or decade low in transitions and sales and pre-construction. So it, one way of looking at it is that to say, you know what, we're doomed. This is an industry that is basically collapsing in the next three years and nothing's gonna happen. Go find work elsewhere. Or, is there a way or is there a potential movement or initiative from different levels of government that say, listen, like some of this we have control over some of these levers, we can't, start pulling and, maybe that's what build Canada Homes is gonna do, or to some extent, right? which quite honestly, I'm hoping that's the case. Let's zoom back in, into GTAI went, as part of the report, basically my interpretation was that 2026, you, it seems that the data is showing you that it's 26 is probably the bottom in the foreseeable future in terms of. Pricing. Maybe let's talk about that a little bit. Is that correct?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 31:42

we definitely have prices declining in 2026, and we're expecting to see a bit of a, like growth, at least start in 2027. And that partly has to do, let's say, even on the condo side with kind of like. The supply pipeline and how it's getting worked through and stuff to go back, ultimately, we hope there'll be more economic stability and certainty.'cause we are what at the peaker,'cause this whole cosma revision, right? that's quite substantial and that's a big kind of work in the road, of our largest trading partner. Again, 70 per roughly 70% of our good exports nationwide go to the States. hopefully, and that is playing a very substantial role on the market that. There is demand. There's a lot of demand. that's the silver lining. There's a lot of individuals who want homes. There's a lot of individuals who are waiting on the sidelines because, for whatever reason, like you, you want to see how things play out. Especially if you're in a, an employed in a sector that could be impacted by all this, right? Like making the lar arguably the largest purchasing decision in your life. The average person is gonna be a little hesitant, right? So that is gonna be the driving force be, that explains our kind of, our kind of price growth or kind of recovery going forward. On the sales side, it's a little funny. Like kind of nowhere to go but up when you're at a quarter

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 33:01

I, I guess that's, I guess that's good news,

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 33:03

Yeah. Yeah. it's definitely like glass half full right.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 33:06

right? It doesn't get worse than this.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 33:08

on the price side too, like I, I do think there's,'cause the condo market, it's just like a domino, right? So it impacts low-rise housing a lot as well simply because it's, it in it, puts a lot of friction for move up buyers, right? Because to kind a lot of individuals, they go up the housing ladder in, in the GTA, they don't just buy a single detach, property right away, right? Like they get a condo, they sell it, they get a townhouse, they eventually sell it, they save up more, they get a single detach home, whatever, right? So there's a lot of friction in there now because hard to move a condo right now. Specifically, like that's specific

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 33:42

Very true.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 33:43

And it's quite interesting because if you look at like price declines from their peak condos are fairly comparable. To the rest of the housing types, which is interesting in terms of like their value, from their peak to now. just the market's more sluggish. And part of the reason it, it didn't like decline further is it's still the first entry into home ownership. It's still the relatively affordable option and amid like kind of economic uncertainty and affordability challenges that helps it, right? But there is us over, supplying the specific unit types. So that just makes it harder for people to liquidate their, assets so they can move up to a house there. So I do think as there's more economic kind of certainty. We're gonna, we're gonna see that recovery flowing in through the second half of our, forecast horizon. And that's gonna be a positive thing. And eventually there will be like, supply challenges simply because the construction pipeline's a bit predictable, right? If there's no presales, now we have a decent idea how starts are gonna look in the next few years. So eventually that will happen and there will be that demand for the labor for everything. I'm a little optimistic in that sense. I think that if you have a longer outlook, things are a bit more rosier, right? But if you zoom in, the narrower you get, the more kind of,

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 34:57

Depressing becomes, yeah.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 34:58

Yeah. The rose tint fades a little bit because, but again, we'll see.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 35:02

So you, you mentioned, I'm, first of all, I'm happy that you're optimistic because there's a, the, there's a line in the report which, um, didn't sound too optimistic. there's a, there's an alternative scenario section in the report, and it starts with saying the downside risks to the outlook are more likely than the upside risks, which to me that means that if we made a mistake, it's probably we're being too optimistic. Maybe it gets worse than this. is that right way of writing, reading that line?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 35:31

it depends. I'm, if I'm adding like, hypothetical probabilities, it could be like 70% in our baseline, 20% in the downside. 10% in the upside, right? that's double the relative size. But for sure, I don't think that, it's hard to imagine a scenario where Kuzma gets renegotiated and it's just. Twice as good for Canada as it was before in the

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 35:52

Yeah, that's that. That doesn't seem that's gonna happen.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 35:55

our neighbors to the south have such an altruistic motive for us right. to renegotiate it.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 36:00

Definitely not.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 36:01

shake. We deserve more. So I don't think that's evident in

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 36:04

When was the last time that happened?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 36:05

yeah. Yeah. that's the challenge there. And it's unfortunate because, there's, it's just the reality of it, right? you, I'm still pretty optimistic, but you have to call, you have to say it, what it, call it as it is, right? this is a large shock. If tell the average person on the street that 70% of the nation's goods go to America, 20% of our national GDP roughly, and that's being, jeopardized quite substantially. That's big. Like any economist, that's huge. That's why it's like the single most driving factor. in our outlook, right? that's the main forecast risk. but again, at least we can take solace in the fact that this isn't isolated to the GTA, it's not even isolated to

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 36:43

It is. I was just gonna say it's not, yeah, it's not even isolated to our continent. That's, I guess there's silver lining there.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 36:49

so like the pandemic, at least we're all in it together.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 36:52

We're all in it together with the broader sense of that, sentence. Okay, so we talked about the past, we talked about the potential future. Let's talk about present. Okay. If I'm a developer, if I'm a smaller midsize developer in Sea of Toronto or in the GTA area, and I'm trying to plan or come up with contingencies for next three years of my portfolio, of my projects, or my investment for my investments, what are the first or second or third items that you would suggest I should stress test against? What are some of my assumptions that I should go back and double check for next three years? That these are the things, these are the areas that I might be most vulnerable to. We've kind of established that the next three years probably there's not gonna be condos going to market, so I'll take that off the type table right away, which is. Probably kind of obvious, but aside from that, let's say I'm working on PBRs. Let's say I'm working on missing middles or or that types of projects. What are the three top things that I should be stress testing for?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 37:58

think, it's hard from an operational sense. I think that there's a lot of advantages to producing this type of housing right now. Like you, you mentioned missing middle. It just, it's some way of getting supply that's relatively more dense on the market with less risk than, condos have right now, and less barriers even because, with condos you have to hit certain sales thresholds that are just not getting hit right now, period. From an investor's perspective, I think, there, there will be demand for these. like I think a lot of, industry, stakeholders that, I speak to, they're quite optimistic in the kind of long run, right? this is, if you have a longer kind of, perspective on stuff like it, it's. Good to have that perspective. And it definitely helps, temper assumptions, or not assumptions, but the short run could be a bit bumpy right. in terms of specific things to look for. It's, it's quite challenging. Like what, what, maybe I can flip that question back to

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 38:50

by all means do this.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 38:51

what are the three things that you'd be like, a, as someone

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 38:54

fair enough. I, so like one of the things, let's say I'm, if I'm doing a performer on a multiplex project or a Midrise project where I have 30, 40, 50 units and'cause I kind of feel, to be honest with you, that we're not gonna see 400 unit purpose built rentals happening anytime soon. So let's talk about between six to 60 units. like the, the, the criteria that are gonna really affect me are gonna be, I guess I'm just gonna top my head. Vacancy is gonna affect me very much my growth. and the base rent is going to, affect me quite a bit in the next five years. And obviously the base rent, what I'm gonna collect, what, what am I gonna start collecting? We had projects that people were underwriting rents for like$6 a square foot or five and a half dollars a square foot. And then when time came, people, uh, couldn't pay more than three and a half. And that like, That, so those, those are top three things, which I think overall affect our NY quite a bit.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 39:47

So I think on the vacancy side, we are expecting it to peak this year and kind of see recovery there, which is consistent with our, overview. Of course rent growth, will be a bit sub subdued to, but if you're looking at a three year horizon and then a five year, like it's not that far off. If you can get to that supply, that kind of market inversion that is eventually gonna happen.'cause quite interestingly, like it's, okay, so if you're thinking about rental demand, the GTA is losing a lot of non-permanent residents with the new kind of, national policies around immigration and non-permanent residents. and actually we haven't seen in the data the brunt of that because right now we're looking at, four month, four quarter data, for the CMAs between 2024, Q3 to 2025 Q2, right? And we saw for the first time in the GTA like a net loss in migration of like roughly 24,000 individuals. I believe the, if we're, we have the provincial data, which goes to Q3 now. And Q3 is like the largest decline in NPR residents. So that's gonna happen in the GTA. However, we had that huge influx that came before, and it's it impacts different regions within the GTAA little bit more, a little bit less. But the one thing that is positive is immigration targets now at the federal level are still higher than they were pre pandemic. And we still

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 41:09

Right.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 41:10

immigrants, right? So we still get roughly 30% of those and there is a lot of demand, pushing stuff back towards the GTA, that return to office, let's say. So there, there are like, like positive factors still there. And ultimately, again, I think a lot of like rental housing providers, they're, they have a much longer outlook horizon than condo developers typically, right? And you can see

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 41:34

Oh, that's very true.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 41:35

The supply is going and the GTA is still gonna be a big draw for individuals and a lot of migration. and whatever, we're losing individuals, let's say to the rest of the province, and that's just like affordability, migration, stuff like that. that kind of exacerbated in the pandemic simply because people didn't, people wanted to see less of other people in the pandemic typically,

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 41:54

True.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 41:55

to

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 41:55

Yeah.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 41:56

and stuff. And you're seeing a bit of a pullback from that too. So that's gonna help, support, demand there. So I think if you have a longer, horizon, it like, the rental, outlook is, quite favorable.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 42:07

So we, we were talking with a friend of mine who's also a developer, and we were, basically, the short version is, try not to die for the next three years, and hopefully the five you'll, you'll do good and, keep above that water for the time being and, we'll survive. okay. So I'm gonna go a little bit more granular in that, like you said, some of these data, the reports you guys are producing or other entities are producing is basically there's a lag. The people are looking at an NROC. So if you were to advise, a developer. or an investor in terms of looking at or checking lead measures, like what, what is it that we should be checking on individuals and not have to wait for your reports or other people's sophisticated reports to come out? What are some lead measures that are good for people to check in the market every day, every week, every month, to get a better sense of what's about to happen? is that a fair question even to ask or is that too much to ask?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 43:03

it's tough. I was gonna make a joke and say Twitter, but,

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 43:06

That's probably not a bad one.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 43:07

who knows what you can infer from that, even though, because there's just a lot of noise. But, I think it's good to it keep your to the ground, hear what's going on, but never lose sight of those like huge kind of trends that are much more predictable. we do see that the construction pipeline is gonna get work through and cleared, right? Like the under construction inventory start planning a strategy around that would make sense, right? Like that's something, more predictable and like more structural and I guess like in our control, right?

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 43:40

Okay, so I guess try to write the next wave is what you're trying to say, like, or prepare for next wave, if that makes sense. And see. Because it's hard to put numbers or dates to exactly when that is gonna happen, so try to keep on top of the existing inventory. These are reports that come out every month from real estate boards in terms of how much sales has happened and some how much inventory is there.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 44:01

just to add to that, like we have monthly data. housing starts, completions, all sorts of stuff that's very kind of recent, which, you can follow, you can see, what new projects are starting, where, and if you wanna go even before that, you can look at permit data from other providers. But, it's good to see, where the inventory's getting worked through, where it's not and factor that into your equation, but ultimately, this is a question that, like developers are much better able to answer right.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 44:28

Fair enough. So going back to your reports and your data, is there any particular, criteria or something that you guys measure and report on that you think is underrated? Like people are not paying too much attention to A lot. We, we hear a lot about pre-sales of condos and new transactions on new construction. Is there any other measure that is not being noticed as much as it should in your opinion?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 44:53

it's asking me, which I don't have children, but if I

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 44:55

I was just gonna say,

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 44:56

one's my favorite.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 44:57

which one's your favorite? Which one is your favorite?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 44:59

I'm, as A-C-M-H-C spokesperson, I'm a fan of all of our products equally, but,

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 45:02

I like all of my kids. That's

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 45:04

Yeah. yeah. if, maybe not, maybe love is the stronger word, I think most parents or the more diplomatic word parents,

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 45:10

true.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 45:11

but, I think we offer like a very wide range. We, we do. So we have our housing market outlooks, which is like quite comprehensive nationwide. And we used to do that, at least recently on an annual basis. Now we're doing a major analysis and then a summer follow up like we did last year. Same with the rental market, right? the one thing that's maybe underrated are these new reports that we're putting out and saying, Hey, look, we're still we're very actively monitoring, the situation, Much to the den detriment of the mental health of the economists who have to cover stuff. But, it's something that obviously we, we have an active duty to follow everything quite closely.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 45:46

Yeah.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 45:47

these kind of newer reports, I definitely recommend checking out. Last year we did, one showing the, the con like the condo market risk, right? what's going on there. we had our, and on that note, we had a mortgage delinquency, or like a mortgage report, just recently, that showed that are getting higher in the GTA, but they're still low from a, like a historical sense. And, while it is gonna put a lot of pressure on current owners who have to renew their mortgages, we're quite resilient. And luckily we had, more stress testing to account for that. So that's paying dividends now. But yeah, I just, check out all of our kind of like new topical reports.'cause, it's our duty now. this isn't business as usual, right? this is

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 46:26

very true.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 46:26

a lot of individuals are, not a lot of individuals, but I think it's quite a fallacy to just walk around and pretend that this is, business as usual. So we have to adapt. And, in the CMHC, way we're doing that now is we're really just trying to monitor things, more closely, produce stuff more frequently and, get like creative with our analysis.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 46:45

You made a joke about the mental health of the Economist. Uh, when I started podcasting a couple years ago, I didn't think that would be an issue for podcasters, but that's the same thing.'cause every episode we have, we're digging for good news and it's becoming harder and harder and harder to get it out. And hopefully there's an end to that. I want to zoom out. we talked about, particular in GTA, condos, rentals and everything else. If you were to. Forget about your role at CMHC for a second. If you could, and look at Canada as a, as a economist, as someone who understands economic forces, are there any long term trends that makes you excited? So if you were to have kids at any point in time, you would be excited for them.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 47:27

So the one kind of silver lining. Of, this shakeup the way we operate in Canada is that there seems to be, a very enhanced focus on like, how can we on like nation building Right on, on just strengthening the,

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 47:45

Coming together.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 47:46

yeah. and working. Like to make Canada more stronger economically.'cause I think we took our position maybe for and for granted, let's say in the most broadest sense. And this is, the opinions of Jordan Danowski,

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 48:00

Yes. Yeah.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 48:01

economist per se. But, still I'm an economist when I, anyway, I'm always an economist. But, yeah, for better or for worse. But, I think that there's like an excitement of look at all the cool stuff we can do if we put our mind together. And now it really matters, right? Because when there's, a bit of like, when stuff gets shaken up a bit, you're you get sobered up a little and you're like, okay, now let's focus, let's get stuff done. So that's a silver lining of the current situation. And, and while it's, we're in the turbulence now, things I'm fairly optimistic for the future.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 48:30

So is this fair to say that, and I'm gonna say it in my layman terms, not in the economic terms, that we're getting a little bit too comfortable, and now we gotta a wake up call and hopefully the future's brighter'cause of that. with that being said, I wanna start wrapping this up. we have a closing question on the podcast that we give you a magic wand for about five minutes. And if you had a magic wand, you could change one law, one regulation, one mindset, one paradigm thinking paradigm and uh, or anything for that matter to help us. Weather these pad these next few years that we just talked about quite a bit. If you could make one wish, what would that be?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 49:12

it's, I, I don't wanna be too repetitive and harking on the whole like, geopolitical situation, but it's hard not to in the sense of it's hard to think of, a specific, like ideal response or policy or anything. deal with all this. Ultimately, if I had. Access to any sort of like magical object, object that could influence unilaterally something. It would just be to normalize trade relations and, have more stability in the economy just because ultimately you, you see all these things it impacts, it just, it's tentacles aren't everything right? All the way down, from the business, from the investor to the consumer, to everyone, right? And it's just causing a lot of economic friction. So it, I wish I could point to a specific housing policy or a specific thing that would like, counterbalance that in a very meaningful way. But ultimately even in our forecast report, that is the big, like that in itself is the big, The big driver between kind of, a slower recovery or a faster recovery. yeah, if I had a magic wand, I'd take us, back to more normal, predictable, trade relations

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 50:20

Back to more than one year ago when we had more certainty about the environment,

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 50:25

seems like a

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 50:25

and I know what, what, what the, the impact, uh, of a year can have on everything. And to your point, the report, started by pointing out at our projected GDP growth for 2026 is only 0.7, which is sad, which is, uh, which it's still, good that we're not in a full on scale recession from that perspective, but it's also for a country with our resources, with our, capabilities. it's a sad passing ground. Hopefully be passed through quite quickly and, in the near future. Thank you. Jordan, is there anything that I haven't asked you that you wish to share with our audience before we log off?

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 51:02

just to maybe, end stuff with a bit of like silver linings, a bit more of a

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 51:06

Please do.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 51:07

because again, like I get, it's it's exhausting to cover current events and how it all plays into the data and what we're seeing there and how it impacts everything. But ultimately. I really want to say again that we have a pretty good track record here of dealing with uncertainty and stuff. you look at the global financial crisis, you look at a lot of stuff. we've done quite well. Canadians are quite resilient in the GTA. A lot of our homeowners or a lot of individuals, they've been handling things pretty good, pretty well. They've been playing, like te, like economic Tetris well. I think that we have a silver lining here again in the GTA that we quite It's not as much of our, uh, you know, uh, level GDP other CMAs in Ontario. So we're good on that. We're better on that front. there's certain, areas that could be a little bit more impacted, like in our automotive corridor and stuff like that. But as a whole, as a c as a CMA, like the GTA is quite. Has a quite resilient economy. So I think that we will be able to weather this and I'm quite optimistic in the longer term and I do think that even from the market sense, we do see a light at the end of the tunnel and we do see like a reversal in market conditions 2028 onwards. just want to end stuff on a positive

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 52:28

I very much appreciate it. We're gonna get through this and we're all in this together and just keep your cool, keep what's that saying? Keep calm and keep building.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 52:37

Yeah.

payam_2_02-12-2026_140332 52:37

Yeah, we carry on. We go. Yeah. we will keep buildings. We're builders. Yeah. Thank you very much Jordan. I'm hoping that we can have part two of this interview, next time that you have a report, which is hopefully gonna be more positive. And have better news for us, and we go from there. Thank you for being here.

jordan-n_1_02-12-2026_140332 52:54

Awesome. Thanks. My pleasure. Cheers.