Policing and Shooting Data: How to Show Success

Policing tactics are directly related to those used to improve public health (e.g., the impact of abandoned housed on crime and interventions to reduce gun violence).  Policing can also benefit by including success stories along the lines of those used by many industries: counting the number of accident-free days.  Dr. Branas, the Chair of the department of epidemiology at Columbia University, discusses a recent study that supports using “shooting-free days” to measure crime prevention success.  Dr. Branas suggests that this approach does not replace counting shootings; rather, it provides a counter approach to understanding harm.

Main Topics

• Measuring the number of shooting-free days, and a few other similar metrics, offer a different perspective on violent crime.
• This study examined gun violence data from 10 large cities as a proof-of-concept.
• The same simple calculations can be used in any city that experiences violent crime, particularly shootings.

Here is the citation for the research:

Branas, C. C., Plumber, I., Bennett, R., Landes, O., & Rajan, S. (2026, March). Shooting-Free Days as a New Metric of Success in Reducing Firearm Violence. In JAMA Health Forum (Vol. 7, No. 3, p. e260078). American Medical Association.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:12

Welcome to the Police in Service Training Podcast. This podcast is dedicated to providing research evidence to street-level police officers and command staff alike. The program is intended to help the police and law enforcement community create better programs, understand challenging policies, and dispel the myths of police officer behavior. I'm your host, Scott Phillips. When looking at crime trends over time, charts can tell us something, even if the charts are rudimentary. For example, over the past 10 or 15 years, the trend in shootings declined steadily. It was like looking at a Bunny Hill ski slope. But there were noticeable spikes in 2020 and 2021, likely because of COVID. After that, the trend line declined again. More detailed statistical analysis would let us know if this spike was significant, but the trend lines itself tells us something. Most cities and police agencies look at counts of shootings or homicides when they create those trend lines and graphs. I'm not exactly sure why. Maybe it's just easier to count a shooting as something that occurs. Nobody seems to be too interested in something that does not occur. Maybe counting crimes has to do with what's considered newsworthy. The media usually focuses on when something bad occurs, and no one else cares about a slow newsday. There is no rule, however, that police agencies feed the media beast. Besides, in larger cities, those feeding frenzies are going to take place whether we like it or not. Still, there is something to be said about reframing our considerations of violent crimes. Rather than looking at individual events as moments of failure, there is an argument that gaps in these events should be considered periods of success. To help us understand the idea that gaps in violent crimes can be an indicator of success is Dr. Charles Brannis. Dr. Brannis is the chair of the Department of Epidemiology at Columbia University, and he has studied gun violence prevention and place-based interventions to improve public health. Dr. Brannis joins the podcast to discuss a study he conducted along with four co-authors titled Shooting Free Days as a New Metric of Success in Reducing Firearms Violence, which was recently published in the Journal of the American Medical Association's Health Forum. Thanks for joining the podcast, Charles.

SPEAKER_00 2:31

Thanks so much for having me, Scott. It's great to be here.

SPEAKER_01 2:35

Now, as an epidemiologist, you study issues that deal with uh incidents, uh distribution, and possible control of diseases and other factors related to health. Uh uh you studied the impact of abandoned houses on crime, the effect of greening vacant land on medical health, or excuse me, on mental health, and interventions to reduce reduce gun violence. Now, each of these tactics have been tapped into in some way by some police agencies across the country. What drew your attention to the idea of focusing on gaps in shootings or violence as a sign of success?

SPEAKER_00 3:09

Well, I guess the primary thing that focused me on is just being a citizen of multiple cities. And I know that people in those cities, while they do take notice if there's a shooting, um, I think they very much uh have perhaps uh an unspoken joy when there's not, or when there's a long period without such things. I will say the origins of our study are I've worked with law enforcement uh and police departments for decades. And uh the origins of this particular study really started in the early aughts when I was uh working with the commissioner's office in the Philadelphia Police Department, more specifically the deputy commissioner, and we were doing a study where uh an epidemiologic public health study, public health, public safety combined, really, uh, where we needed to know about shootings very quickly, basically the day that they occurred. And so that gave uh our team an insight into all the shootings that happened over a three-year period in the city of Philadelphia, and that really it was quite surprising to me that we determined in that and noticed thing, we noticed in that that about a handful of days every year in the city of Philadelphia over that period had no shootings.

SPEAKER_01 4:28

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 4:28

Uh, and there were days that had dozens of shootings, quite honestly. Yeah. Um, not technically mass shootings, but dozens of shootings else all on various places around the city. So that was really, really eye-opening to us, and that that has sort of lingered with me for decades, and that's one of the reasons I finally got around to doing this analysis of the of ten cities, including Philadelphia. There are ten largest cities in the U.S.

SPEAKER_01 4:50

Okay, so so this area of of inquiry, the uh wh why is it important to the police? I mean, after all, this is this is a huge change, uh a shift in their focus to understanding shootings or violence rather than counting them, counting the days off. Well, why is this relevant?

SPEAKER_00 5:05

You know, I I'm just gonna say uh this is not uh uh a study to try to get police or municipal municipalities or agencies, municipal agencies to stop counting shootings or murders in their cities. That that remains important. But I think there's a need to start to focus not simply on the tragedies themselves, but to start to think about when when we have success and to begin to talk about that success and to begin to elevate that success. And I'll go back to what I just said a moment ago. I think that success, people's day-to-day experience of crime and violence in their city and the absence of it, I think is what really colors their quality of life, their health and their safety, and the way they report that back to you.

SPEAKER_01 5:55

Again, it's a different idea that you know doing it uh is a is a gap as success. I think that was really interesting, which is what drew my attention to this particular study. So the police have been counting crimes forever. I mean, they they always counted the number of tickets I wrote and those kinds of things years ago. And most bureaucracies, I think, they just like to count things because it's fairly straightforward and easy. So, what's the problem with simply tracking counts of shootings and homicides on a monthly to yearly basis? I mean, you said they can still do it, you're not trying to convince them not to.

SPEAKER_00 6:27

Correct. Well, I I think one of the issues with homicides, uh any kind of fatal uh or lethal uh injury or death is that it's only the tip of an iceberg. So, you know, for every fatal shooting, there's perhaps three to four non-fatal shootings that don't don't get counted. So let's just start there to say that um broadly speaking, shootings and assault, assault of an aggravated assault sort of injuries are really important to count, whether or not somebody dies. Um but then I think that again, it's not necessarily reflective of people's day-to-day experience uh and the opportunity that it poses uh to begin to think not simply in metrics of of bodies, uh, but in metrics of days. Let's measure the days that we have successes. I mean, if you wanted to turn it on its head, they could turn it on its head and say the days that they don't have successes. But I think borrowing from the workplace safety movement, that's now, my goodness, is 50 years old of counting, you know, injury-free days on the work site. I think people respond to that, and it's understandable, and it's something that cities can get behind. Cities and police departments can get behind these new metrics of success.

SPEAKER_01 7:44

Now you also mentioned in your paper something um that to do with uh sometimes murder statistics can be manipulated and and and then you mentioned for political reasons. Now anyone listening, you know, even in the pol particularly in the policing world is going to understand this this problem. But can you explain why this might be an issue?

SPEAKER_00 8:04

Yeah, I just I don't, you know, this is not me pointing fingers, but this is me in the field watching uh what's what's happened in the perhaps it's the far past. I'm gonna say that. So my experience of of working in the 90s was that cities would either overinflate their their murder rate or underinflate, and there's some good documentation of that. There's a number of people that have studied that, overinflate it for the purposes of uh getting more resources to respond to something perhaps that wasn't as big as what it was, or underinflate it to say that they were having more success than they they really were. Now, I don't think that that's necessarily rampant, and I'm not pointing any fingers, but I think that that is possible and it's happened in the past.

SPEAKER_01 8:51

Yeah, I'd be more than happy to point some fingers. I I I call I refer to this as um boo politics, you know, boo. They're trying to trying to scare people. And that it's it's a legitimate argument to make. We can we we that's a different podcast, obviously, but it's out there and it's it's just annoying when people manipulate that kind of information in a way to make you know for make political hay out of something that's just not there. Okay, so you you suggest that reframing the conversation from the number of shootings uh or the number of homicides to shooting free days, or from an abse as we said, or you said a moment ago, the absence of safety to the presence of safety provides a fuller picture of shootings and violent crime. Can you can you get into how that happens?

SPEAKER_00 9:35

I mean, we started thinking about this when we were talking about adverse experiences that children um uh have, and we really wanted to think there's a whole movement to begin to think about, you know, what are the value of positive experiences that children have? And how do we, instead of only talking about those adverse experiences, why don't we try to elevate the positive experiences and see if we can bring those to the top of the pile? Um and that's been very, very beneficial. So why not take that same thinking and apply it to communities in terms of their public safety and their public health and begin to think about this? I I do I'll go back to the workplace safety issue. I think that that is a very understandable thing. How many days of z how many consecutive days of zero injuries in the workplace have you had? And a community really responds to that sort of thing. Neighborhoods respond to that if you can show them that there hasn't been a shooting for X number of days in that neighborhood. And remember, I mean, if you look at the article and you look a little closely, some of these cities are having, again, a handful of days without shootings. Others are having half the year without shootings, major cities in the US. Right. But for those that are having like a handful of days, try to imagine what the day-to-day experience is for the residents and the community members there. They are living in, you know, uh a conveyor belt of violence in their in in their communities, and they just want they want to have a couple days off. They want a day where nobody died and nobody got shot. That's like uh that's like a vacation day for them, you know?

SPEAKER_01 11:11

Right. So even if it's a short period of time, that that mental medication of just it being down, being off, you know, makes people feel better.

SPEAKER_00 11:18

100%.

SPEAKER_01 11:19

Now, instead of counts, um we we'll get into your study in a second, but I want to uh kind of kind of look at the dependent variable basically what was instead of counting how many things occurred, you had four metrics for measuring safety and success. Uh can you talk about those?

SPEAKER_00 11:37

Sure, sure. And I I love the use of dependent variable. I'm I'm gonna and and we'll talk about this again in a moment, but this is like the simplest study possible. This is a completely descriptive study, and we did it simply that way because we really do want cities to to adopt the metrics. And the the metrics are, I mean, the most basic metric is just how many shooting free days do you have every year? How many days do you have where there is no shooting that is detectable in your city?

SPEAKER_01 12:02

Of any kind.

SPEAKER_00 12:03

Uh of any kind, exactly.

SPEAKER_01 12:06

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 12:06

Um and and after that, we then broke it up into sort of these sub uh sub-measures. Um, one of them is how many shooting death free days do you have? So how many people, how many days do you have where people did not get shot and die, which is a different metric, right? The other one uh that we looked at was how many mass shooting free days do you have? And that is I'm sorry, not mass shooting. I'm gonna take that back, Scott. Okay, multiple shooting. We're not using the formal definition of a mass shooting, we're using multiple shooting. So how many days did you have were uh not more than two or more people were shot, right? So if one person was shot, that doesn't contribute into the multi-shooting free days. Okay, so shooting free days, shooting death free days, and uh and multiple shooting free days. But the fourth one was very interesting. We actually only had the first three, and then we met with some police leaders and some uh law enforcement and criminal justice leaders in various places. And what they told us was they they think communities and city city managers would very much like to know how many uh what's the longest string of consecutive days a city has without any shootings. So we also then concocted this uh consecutive shooting free days uh metric and put that in the in the study. And we really I really like that one. Um because that's giving you a sense of like what what has that neighborhood or that community experienced, like what's their uh what's their winning record uh in terms of not having any shootings.

SPEAKER_01 13:39

So this is not just fatal shootings, it would include you know shots fired where the officers show up, there's cartridges on the ground, but there's no no victims.

SPEAKER_00 13:48

No, honestly, so it does not include shots fired. So I'll be clear about that. Someone has to be shot. Someone there has to be like thermal penetration. Someone has to be um shot with a with a firearm. Okay, but still at le at least it is not just discharge of a gun.

SPEAKER_01 14:03

Right, it includes victim people who are victims but but didn't die. Because I know there are some some studies that will look at only only deaths.

SPEAKER_00 14:09

Okay, so that I'm gonna- Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. For sure. This is there is one of the metrics is only about deaths, but the other three uh focus more broadly on fatal and non-fatal uh shootings.

SPEAKER_01 14:20

Okay, so now let's jump into your study. Uh how was it done? Where did you get get the data from?

SPEAKER_00 14:25

So, how was it done? So from my standpoint, this is pretty straightforward. I mean, we went and obtained data um from the Gun Violence Archive, which is a national uh repository of data that uses uh police data, uh downloads police data from you know from across the nation, but also looks at uh um media reports, and they talk about thousands of other sources of information that they bring in to try to track every shooting in the US that gets reported. And they, and I'm gonna set tell you that there's been a lot of questions about it, um, but we do have another study, uh a sister study that was done a couple years ago, looking at the gun violence archive, the GVA, and it does pretty good. If anything, if anything, it performs, it undercounts. So if you did look at our study in the Journal of the American Medical Association, this study we're talking about today, uh, if anything, you what you would see is that perhaps we undercounted uh the number of shooting free days. You know, perhaps some of the cities ha have fewer shooting-free days than than than uh we reported. But in general, that gun violence archive data is really, really good. And one of the things about it that makes it really advantageous here is we did want to produce something just to demonstrate the metrics at this point, but and we wanted to do it for the ten largest cities in the U.S. Uh, and there's just no central database in near real time that will tell me how many shootings happen on a daily basis. Right, right. In the 10 largest cities in the U.S.

SPEAKER_01 16:05

So that you so you went after the 10 largest cities, and when you say largest, uh uh geography-wise or population?

SPEAKER_00 16:12

Population. Population, okay. Population. No, not square foot, not square miles.

SPEAKER_01 16:16

Yeah, because some there's some cities that are in enormous, but the population isn't quite you know, but they still like Houston. Houston isn't, I always mention Houston, yes, because I'm familiar with it, but it was like you know, 535 square miles when I was there, and that was a long time ago. It's grown, and it has at the time it was a million people, and then yeah, a million people coming into the city, but we're getting off off track here. So, so okay, so the gun violence archives data, 10 largest cities. It's a pretty reliable data set because you know in our worlds we are aware of data sets that are not that great for for whatever purposes we have what we want them for. All right, so you got 10 largest cities. What did you find when it comes to these these different metrics for measuring uh the good days?

SPEAKER_00 16:59

Well, I guess one of the most interesting things is that we found that the cities, the 10 largest cities, and I'm just gonna read what they are. Do you think that would be a good idea? Oh, that that's fine, sure.

SPEAKER_01 17:07

We've got plenty of time.

SPEAKER_00 17:09

Oh, good, yeah, good, because I think uh whoever's listening would want to know. So the ten largest cities, and not in the order of size, to be honest with you, but are Chicago, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, New York, Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, San Antonio, Jacksonville, Phoenix, and San Diego. And you can look in the article and see those details. Now, one of the things that came out of this was that the cities are very different in their shooting free day metrics. It's all across the board. And and it's perhaps it's somewhat of what you would expect if you were looking at uh gun homicide statistics for these cities.

SPEAKER_01 17:48

Sure.

SPEAKER_00 17:48

But it's not exactly the same. There's some differences, and um, and we're looking into that a little bit more. Um, but the way these cities get ordered is a little bit different uh based on shooting free days.

SPEAKER_01 18:02

All right, so you're this was an exercise. The study was basically an exercise to see if the metrics worked, and using those 10 cities is is this a viable option for for cities like Buffalo that don't have a million people, or cities like Rochester, or cities, you know, the most modest sized cities across the country that have a you know 250,000, 300,000 people.

SPEAKER_00 18:22

Can I just add to that too? And just say Oh, by all means, yeah. I we think that what we've measured here is pretty darn accurate to begin with. Um I do think that um it is a demonstration for the 10 cities, for the cities you're talking about, smaller cities, right? Could be Buffalo, could be Gary, Indiana, I don't know, could be Youngstown, Ohio, et cetera, these small, mid-sized cities too. But even for the 10 biggest cities, it's a demonstration that they could continue this in the future. And if they don't like the data we use, the gun violence archive data, and they feel like it's not acceptable, they could do this exact same thing with their home data.

SPEAKER_01 18:58

Oh, right. That's that's the point of the exercise. Okay, now here we have a formula. Take it.

SPEAKER_00 19:02

I gotta say it outright. Yeah, yeah. Totally. Just use your own data. I mean, we're just showing you what can be done here, but go ahead and use your own data. Or you could use the gun violence archive data if you wanted over time and the benchmark or whatever you may be. But all these police departments, especially for the major cities, they have great data repositories of their own at this point, and they could uh make these same calculations. And we've purposely they're very easy to do. It's very straightforward, and it's it's that way by choice and by design, so that they can reproduce this on a regular basis.

SPEAKER_01 19:32

Now, just again, I know this as you said, this was an exercise to see if this process worked. Um I did some research with a colleague, you know, about five years ago, four years ago, whatever it was now, looking at crime and violence in Buffalo um during during COVID, and yeah, it was a spike, and it was a statistical significance in the spike. Um did did you see the same with the numbers in in your 10 cities? I'm just this is kind of like off tra off topic from the metrics, but no, it's not at all.

SPEAKER_00 20:00

It's not at all. And you know, I'm glad you asked that because it's I mean, we looked in you can look, we tracked this from 2015 to 2024, so for that 10-year period, and that encompasses the pandemic period. And you certainly what you do is you see shooting free days like go down pretty precipitously in the pandemic. And going going down is bad, right? Okay, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 20:23

Um, just just so everybody's clear increasing trends are what you want.

SPEAKER_00 20:28

You want more shooting free days, right? So shooting free days got worse over that same period and did begin to rebound though, I will say, in 2024. And we haven't calculated anything for 2025 and 2026, but but uh I suspect that that trend would continue to go up. And so definitely the the pandemic had something to do with this and is uh reflected in our data.

SPEAKER_01 20:49

Yeah, okay. Uh now you also mentioned in your data, you mentioned that Phoenix and the Dallas uh Fort Worth area, you combined combined those two cities because they are basically right next to each other. It showed a decline in all four measures. So, what does that tell us about Phoenix and Dallas Fort Worth?

SPEAKER_00 21:07

You know, I don't have anything specific about those cities to say, but they are the two cities that uh in all in the metrics, the shooting free days, the shooting death free days, and multiple shooting free days, and the consecutive shooting free days, the four metrics. Yeah. Those two cities seem to be to have significant uh reductions over over that period in their shooting free days in all the metrics. Um so things uh got worse on on average. The trend was worse in in those cities. Now I will say the trend though was significantly worse in those two cities, in all the metrics. Okay. So that's a statistical term, you know, statistically significantly worse. But in all the cities, things got worse, although not statistically uh significant. Except one, actually, in one metric, and that is um uh in two metrics, actually, is Jackson. Florida, things got better in shooting free days, and significantly better in multi-shooting free days. So that is the one city that seemed to be an exception over this 10-year period.

SPEAKER_01 22:12

Yeah, I I know um again, just getting back to counts, you know, the past, you know, sure. I'm not sure when people are going to listen to this, but in in the past week or so there are there had been like four shootings in Buffalo, like six or seven days, you know. During during that week there have been four shootings, which is really unusual. Buffalo's numbers have just gotten really good when you're just looking at counts. So this is the kind of thing that could help them understand things from a different perspective. And it just doesn't mean it doesn't for some reason, four people were shot during that week period of time. We can't tell anything from it, they're not related at all. I'm not I'm not sure why I mentioned that. I just thought it was i important to bring up as part of this conversation.

SPEAKER_00 22:51

Now sure I mean the you know, the the nation has to the tune of something like 300 still to this day, you know, 250 to 300 shootings every day. So there's there's it's things have gotten significantly better, and we're on a pathway to be almost historically better, uh honestly, in shootings and gun violence for the nation. That said, it doesn't, it's not as if the problem has left us. Um so there's a little bit of celebration, but it should be a muted celebration. Um and I think and and as things get better, why not use the shooting free days metric to start to start to like really you know put it on paper? How much better is it getting? Um and I do think, you know, as we go into 26 and 27, someone should be redoing these analyses. Um because I think you're gonna see the trends turn around if we start moving the window uh of that 10-year time frame that we looked at starting in 2015.

SPEAKER_01 23:48

Yeah, maybe maybe that was the point I was gonna, you know, I just couldn't get myself into that mindset that maybe that's what they should be doing. Okay, yeah, we had four shootings during that particular week. Well, look at the the huge gap in shootings. In the news, they're covering all kinds of other pieces of information that like it must be a slow news day because there's nothing going on bad in Buffalo, which is of course excellent news for them. So after you did the study, uh you and your colleagues, there have to be some implications for police, uh, the practice, um, police leadership, man. What might those be?

SPEAKER_00 24:20

Well, I think the implications is a couple big things. I one is I we we're not suggesting, I'm gonna go back to the very first thing I said. Don't stop tracking homicides and gun homicides. That that's not uh that's not what we're suggesting here. So continue to look at those. But I do think um if you bring in these shooting-free metrics, I think your communities are gonna respond even more. Um and and they're really easy to calculate. You know, this isn't rocket science that we're uh we're talking about here. Very easy to calculate, especially if you're analyst. You can use your own data or you can use the gun violence archive, and they'll give you a different kind of information and they'll set different goals that maybe will resonate more with the residents of your city and the and the public. Uh and it may turn out that these are going to generate, unlike focusing on the shootings, even if the rate of shootings and homicides goes down, you know, these things linger in people's minds. Um and for you then to say how many shooting-free days, if that's getting better, our shooting-free days are going up, um, that's something that may be a ray of hope uh that everyday people in your community are gonna better understand and relate to in their lives, and that it's gonna give them a little more uh bounce in their step, and they're gonna feel better about stepping outside and in their communities.

SPEAKER_01 25:46

I I try to integrate some you know goofy things into some of these podcasts. It I'm sometimes I'm successful and sometimes I'm not. So here we go. There's a line from the um a great Canadian rock band called The Tragically Hip. And the line is no one's interested in something that you didn't do. Now, that's the line. Maybe we should be interested in stuff that doesn't occur. I might be digressing, but that's kind of I think the idea here. We should be interested in is interested in things that aren't occurring.

SPEAKER_00 26:14

100%. You know, this is gonna sound off topic, but in public health we say health is not merely the absence of disease. And I I kind of feel like um safety here is not just merely the absence of crime. There's something else to be said about building building people up and making them feel more confident in their communities and not simply always telling them about the tragedies that are occurring, about the diseases that are all around them all the time. Again, those are important to continue to track, and that's the basis of this. But if you can turn that on its on its head a little bit, I think people will be more responsive.

SPEAKER_01 26:55

Is there anything that uh I missed that uh you wanted to mention?

SPEAKER_00 27:01

No, I don't think so. I don't think so. I I really I I I do think that you know the reason we did this, and it is a base, it's a very straightforward uh bit of research. We I typically don't do research that's this straightforward, and I gotta credit uh the rest of our team. I did not mention that. The rest of our team are phenomenal. So we have a number of great folks, uh, other analysts, and we have a number of uh students that worked on this, and we're very, very excited about it. One of the students even won uh the student prize uh for the some of the analysis on this. So really, really excited, and they they just worked so hard on this. And uh part of it though is we the students kept on bringing bringing me back to it to really think about well, this doesn't need to be we don't need to do more complicated things with this yet. Let's just leave this where it is. We might do something complicated later on, honestly, with these metrics. But right now, let's just leave it where it is because we want to model the opportunity, the very straightforward metrics that the cities can can take up and their own analysts can do this in a very quick way and come up with these metrics.

SPEAKER_01 28:07

Right. Well, I'm also going to remind people that uh there is research out there, whether it's yours or somebody else's, that you've talked about abandoned houses and crime, greening, you know, the vacant lands and how that can improve mental health. So there's all kinds of pieces of information and research out there that can be utilized by police agencies that uh that can do stuff that's you know kind of you know uh off topic for what the police normally do from their normal perspective. But this was great information, Charles. I I sincerely appreciate you coming onto the podcast.

SPEAKER_00 28:36

Yes, my pleasure.

SPEAKER_01 28:37

This was great information.

SPEAKER_00 28:38

Thanks for inviting me.

SPEAKER_01 28:39

Okay, have a great day. Take care. That's it for this episode of the Police in Service Training Podcast. I want to thank you, the listener, for spending your valuable time here. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or wherever they get their podcasts. And please take a moment to review this podcast. If you have any questions or comments, positive or negative, or if you think I should cover a specific topic, feel free to send me an email, which you can find in the show notes. Or you can find me on Blue Sky using the handle at policeinservice.bsky.social. Thanks very much and have a great day.