Tariffs, Tumult - and How it May Affect Your Retirement Plan

Trade-war headlines spiking your stress? Discover how tariff turmoil can shake markets, and how a solid retirement plan keeps you steady. In this episode of The Perfect Retirement Plan?, Phillip Smith of Tidepool Wealth Strategies unpacks import taxes, retaliation risks, and the 2018 China tariff shock, then shows late-career professionals exactly how to protect (and even grow) their nest egg. You’ll learn why staying invested beats panic selling, how strategic diversification cushions volatility, and where to hunt for bargains when fear misprices quality stocks. Perfect for anyone searching “tariffs and stock market,” “retirement portfolio volatility,” or “trade war investment strategy.”

Chapters Roadmap
• Intro & Emotional Hook – Why tariffs matter to retirees
• Tariffs 101 – How import taxes ripple through portfolios
• Trade-War Case Study – Lessons from the 2018 China shock
• Market Psychology – Fear vs. fundamentals
• Defense Tactics – Diversification and bond ballast
• Opportunity Tactics – Buying strong companies on sale
• Action Steps – Stress-test your plan today
• Closing – Staying the course on the road to retirement

Hit Subscribe and ring the bell for more videos on retirement income, tax efficiency, and investment strategy. Explore additional insights on our YouTube channel @TidepoolWealth and visit TidepoolWealth.com for guidance tailored to Pacific Northwest professionals approaching retirement.

Thanks for tuning in to this episode of The Perfect Retirement Plan, and remember: it's not about having the smartest financial advisor, the most money saved, or the highest probability of retirement success. The perfect retirement plan, for you – is the one you act on.

Phillip Smith, CRPC AIF |  Financial Planner
Tidepool Wealth Strategies
450 Country Club Road, Suite 350 | Eugene, OR | 97401

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Additional Disclosures: 
The opinions contained in this material are those of the author, and not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell investment products. This information is from sources believed to be reliable, but Cetera Wealth Services, LLC cannot guarantee or represent that it is accurate or complete.
All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. 

Transcript

Episode: “Tariffs, Tumult, and How They May Affect Your Retirement Timeline”

Outline:

1. Introduction
2. Tariffs Topic
3. Action Steps
4. Closing
5. Sources

Script:

[Introduction] 

Hi, I’m Phillip Smith, financial planner with Tidepool Wealth Strategies, dedicated to helping late-career professionals manage the ebb and flow of retirement planning with clarity and confidence. This is your retirement planning guide to money management, pursuit of long-term financial growth, and creating an adaptive strategy tailored to your unique and evolving journey. Welcome to The Perfect Retirement Plan?

[Main Content]

Today we’re wading into a topic that doesn’t usually make it into retirement conversations, but probably should: tariffs. These quiet policy levers can make loud noises in the markets, and even louder ones in your portfolio. Especially if you're close to retirement.

We’ll talk about what tariffs are, how they shake up investor behavior, and what you should be doing when trade tensions heat up and markets get a little seasick.

Let’s start with something real.

[Emotional Hook]
It was April. The markets were stumbling – headlines flashing red arrows, breaking news banners, economists on parade. I had over 30 client meetings that month. And let me tell you, every single one of those conversations had a heartbeat. These weren’t spreadsheet sessions. These were gut-checks. Emotional. Personal.

Clients came in with worry in their eyes. They wanted to know if everything was still on track. They didn’t just want charts. They wanted confidence. They wanted assurance. They wanted to know, "Am I okay?"

So we looked. We compared what they were feeling with what was actually happening. We zoomed out. We walked through history together, this thing we call the Wall of Worry that markets are always climbing. And I showed them their portfolio compared to the S&P 500.

Guess what? Every single one of those portfolios - 100% of them - was in better shape than clients expected. Not one of them was down as much as the market. Not even close.

It reinforced something I already knew: Plans matter. Diversification matters. But most of all, perspective matters.

Let’s talk about what tariffs really mean for the market.

Tariffs, at their core, are import taxes. They’re used to try and protect domestic industries or level the playing field. But in practice, they can set off ripple effects: supply chain hiccups, price hikes, and retaliation from other countries.

Markets don’t love surprises. And tariffs are often sudden, politically charged, and hard to predict. That combination spooks many investors, and can send indexes tumbling.

Take 2018. The Trump administration launched a wave of tariffs against China. What happened? The S&P 500 dropped nearly 20% from September to December. Headlines were dire. Pundits were panicking. But by 2019? The market had rebounded by over 30%.

So basically, tariffs threw a fit in Q4, and the market had a full-blown rebound party six months later. And this is why reacting in the moment almost never works. What looks like a disaster in the short term can look like a bump in the rearview mirror.

Let’s move to investor reactions - and overreactions.

Here’s something not enough people know: the average return in the 12 months after a 15% market decline is 52%. That’s according to Capital Group. So if you sell when things are scary, you often miss the best part of the ride back up.

From 1954 to 2024, market drops of 5% happened twice a year. Bigger drops - 10% or more - showed up every 18 months. But 37 of the last 49 years? Positive returns by year-end.

Markets stumble. It’s part of the rhythm. And if you try to time every dip and recovery, you usually end up out of step.

Cache: Markets throw more fits than a toddler at bedtime, but at least toddlers don’t cost you thousands in missed gains.

Yeah. You have to know when to ignore the noise. That’s what those 30 client meetings in April reminded me of. When you anchor back to the plan, and give people context they breathe easier. They can think again.

So how do you keep a retirement plan resilient when trade tensions rise?

First: Diversification. If you’re overexposed to sectors sensitive to global trade, like manufacturing or tech, it’s possible to feel every shock. A diversified portfolio may help smooth the ride. That’s not just a buzzword. It’s a defensive posture against policy whiplash.

Second: Bonds. Remember those? When tariffs and policy risk drag down growth, the Fed often responds with rate cuts, which can commonly benefit high-quality bonds. Even now in 2025, we’re seeing core bond funds act as a stabilizer when equities get wobbly.

Third: Opportunity. When markets drop, good companies go on sale. Think back to COVID, and sectors like leisure – airlines and cruise lines. This is in no way a recommendation, but consider what happened to the stock of a cruise line company who’s name my compliance doesn’t want me to specifically reference: it dropped over 80%. But by mid-2021, it had surged over 300% from its lows. That’s not luck. That’s the power of staying invested and having cash or allocation to take advantage. 

Of course, all investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not even a diversified portfolio can assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. And, you should always consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 

I think compliance will be satisfied with me throwing that in there.

Okay, let’s take some action on this...

1. Revisit your portfolio. Are you concentrated in sectors that rise and fall with global politics?
2. Review your income plan. Can your retirement income weather 6, 12, 18 months of drawdowns or slower growth? Is it built to withstand even longer troughs?
3. Look for opportunity. Talk to your advisor about sectors or funds that are being punished unfairly when there are bouts of volatility, because volatility often misprices value.

[Closing]
Here’s the deal: markets will always have noise. Tariffs just happen to be one of the louder instruments right now. But your plan, if it's grounded in reality and built with balance, should offer at least some confidence – even in turbulence.

If this episode helped you, hit Subscribe so you’ll have more clarity the next time the market tide pulls out.

Remember, it’s not about having the smartest financial advisor, the most money saved, or the highest probability of retirement success. The perfect retirement plan for you is the one you act on!

[Disclosure clip]

It’s disclosure time! This podcast is intended for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose. The views depicted in this material should not be considered specific advice or recommendations for any individual, are not intended to be financial, tax, or legal advice and are not representative of Tidepool Wealth Strategies or Cetera Advisor Networks LLC. For a comprehensive review of your personal situation, always consult with a financial, tax or legal advisor. Neither Cetera nor any of its representatives may give legal or tax advice. 

Our office address is 450 Country Club Road Suite 350 Eugene Oregon 97401. Securities and advisory services are offered through Cetera Advisor Networks LLC, a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, and member of FINRA and the S I P C. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity. 

Sources:

·        Capital Group. "Guide to Market Volatility." 2025. https://www.capitalgroup.com 

·        S&P 500 Index performance data, 1954–2024.

·        Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index performance, 2022–2025.

·        Royal Caribbean stock performance data, 2020–2021.