墙裂坛

外滩峰会见闻：牌桌翻转，“老娘舅”登场？

• 墙裂坛

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外滩峰会，曾因马云的一次发言而“一炮打响”，一直是一场高规格、重实质的专业论坛。每年都会汇聚海内外现任或前任央行行长、财政高官、诺奖得主等重量级人物。

今年外滩峰会很有意思，与往届相比感受截然不同，它不仅是一场专业的经济金融政策论坛，更像是一个观察时代趋势和全球“叙事转折点”的窗口。会议几乎不设“念稿”环节，全改成 Panel，考验嘉宾如何“和谐又有料地交锋”。体感是近年来外国友人参会最多的一次，甚至很多圆桌的主题就直接交给”全外宾组合“——外国人在台上“和谐又有料地交锋”，中国人在台下对齐：别人怎么看中国，和我们自己想象的一样吗？我们怎么看海外？和他们自己描述的一样吗？

**但今年给我最大的震撼并不是形式，而是整整三天下来，在场的人都接受到了一个很明显的叙事：牌桌翻转了。**反转的结果是什么？可能终于找到了”钢丝上的平衡“——至少未来12个月是如此。

面对持续半年的贸易战，中国的出口不降反增，关税的威慑力似乎正在失灵，“连接器国家”的崛起重塑了全球贸易流向。经过半年的“巨变”，大家逐渐看清楚了贸易战、科技战、资源战的不同打法。原来以为可能会避而不谈的话题——比如中国打出“稀土牌”的深远影响、各国开始盘点“卡脖子”资源、“金融战”作为“核武器”的真实效用，都有直接的讨论。

所有的讨论，最后落到了一个参会者都在试探的问题：中国未来要扮演一个什么样的角色？是“全球霸主”，还是“老娘舅”？

本期实地调研系列就和大家聊一聊外滩峰会上的“叙事反转”。

时间戳：

  • 00:16 峰会新变化：圆桌取代主旨演讲，外方嘉宾首次过半
  • 09:00 叙事大逆转：从去年的尖锐批评，到今年的牌桌翻转
  • 11:51 关税战是伪命题？“连接器国家”如何重塑全球贸易
  • 23:51 欧洲的焦虑：从“吃瓜群众”到被迫上场的“擂台选手”
  • 27:35 贸易战与科技战的根本区别：从“谁都能造”到“有或没有”
  • 32:09 稀土牌的连锁反应：全球进入“盘点卡脖子资源”的互害时代？
  • 40:29 金融战是核武器吗？美股的“软肋”
  • 47:30 中国会当老大吗？“全球霸主”与“老娘舅”的角色之辩

关键词

  • 叙事转折、牌桌翻转、关税战、科技战、资源战、金融战、连接器国家、稀土、美股软肋、老娘舅

文字稿请阅读公众号《墙裂坛》

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