REality

Dave Childers on Why Real Estate isn’t Frozen and How Smart Agents Can Win in this Market

• Gary Scott

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Forget the “real estate is frozen” headline. We dig into what’s actually happening in the housing market and why smart strategy is beating scary narratives. With David Childers, president of Keeping Current Matters, we break down the numbers behind affordability, inventory, pricing, and what a realistic path to 2026 looks like for buyers, sellers, and agents.

We start with a reality check: existing home sales hovering near 4 million and new builds around 700,000 set a durable floor, even as transactions remain slow relative to population. Prices landed near flat nationally in 2025, with no credible forecasts calling for widespread declines over the next five years. The big mover is supply: the South and West have largely refilled to 2019 levels, cooling appreciation, while the Northeast remains severely constrained. We also unpack why turnover hit historic lows and tenure nudged toward ten years, and how that feeds alarming headlines without capturing on-the-ground behavior.

Then we get tactical. Rate peaks in May and a drift into the low sixes mean average payments dropped by roughly $300 since spring. The difference between 6.25% and 5.99% is often under $50 a month—perfect for debunking the “we’ll wait for five percent” chorus. For sellers, buy-downs often beat price cuts, delivering the monthly payment buyers anchor on at a lower net cost. For agents, trust is the differentiator: publish local inventory and days-on-market snapshots, show price reduction and delisting trends, and lead with two simple questions that open real conversations—Has anyone taken five minutes to explain our market? Is the home you’re in now the right home for you?

As we look to 2026, expect modestly lower rates, slightly higher sales, and normalized price growth. The edge will go to pros who combine calm, optimistic leadership with data-rich storytelling and consistent follow-through. If that sounds like your playbook, you’re already ahead.

If you found this useful, follow the show, share it with a colleague, and leave a quick review—what local stat should we break down next?

SPEAKER_01:

Reality Podcast back with special guest David Childers. David, good morning. Good morning. It's great to be back on and great to be with you. It's great to have you back on. David just shared that the fall is alive and well in Richmond, Virginia. It is. Yes, it was also in Charlotte, North Carolina. And I'm going to bet a dollar that today on November 4th, election day, that there are Chamber of Commerce days in the Commonwealth and in Charlotte, North Carolina and the Carolinas. So, David, it is great to have you with us again, president of Keeping Current Matters. And gosh, what a great time for us to have a conversation. We take a little look in the rearview mirror 25. One of the things I know our audience is very interested in is what does Dave Childers and KCM think about 2026? So I've got a lot of questions prepared. So I'm going to start with this one, which I think is a little bit of a layup to break the ice a little bit. Okay. What has been most surprising to you based on what you thought was going to happen in 2025, eight, nine, ten months ago, a year ago, versus what did happen in 2025?

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, I think that's it's interesting, Gary. I was we were talking before about you know being out doing different events. It was wonderful to be uh with you and your team uh just a few weeks back. Um, but here's what happens in in our business is as we sort of get to the end of the year, we're we're looking at 2026 projections. And the question that always comes up is how accurate are the forecasters, right? Who's who's right, who's wrong? And I get it, that's a that's a question, and we should pay attention to it. So one of the things that I've done is I is I was kind of doing a couple things over the last few weeks, I went back and looked at and said, where um did you know they get it right? Where did they maybe miss on forecast for the year? And I'll tell you this, as far as you know, you take mortgage rates, they largely forecasters got it right of this slow decline into kind of the low sixes where we're at right now, right? Fed kind of came out yesterday, or I mean last week and said a few things that threw things off in the trend, but but they largely got it right. Uh, home sales largely got it right. Uh, an equal, you know, sort of look at it at 24 and 25 will be very similar in the market slow, right? And and and I'll talk about that. But um the one thing that I think surprised me as we look at this market is I think most of us thought we would have seen a little bit more activity this year. You know, I I think when when I think about last year, 2024 will go down, and I think 25 will be very similar. We'll go down when adjusted for population as one of the slowest years in real estate for transactions. Um, and there are a lot of reasons for that. But but I think this year a lot of people thought I thought we would have turned the corner by now. You know, it's almost like Gary back in 2008. You remember kind of 2009 and 10, people are like, all right, next year it's gonna be better. And it feels very similar to that. You know, we had this anticipation that, you know, mortgage rates rose and kind of slowed the market down. And we thought it would have been turned around, but um, but we we you know we'll we'll see a a year shape up here in 2025 from a transaction standpoint, very similar uh to 24. We'll sell slightly more homes, and I mean slightly, but we'll call these these years pretty close to even.

SPEAKER_01:

So as you share those numbers, I think what is always interesting to me is we look at total home sales, we break it down to existing and then new home sales. So when you look at 24 and 25, while uh I think we're gonna end up at about the same number. Was there a was there a general shift uh to or from new versus existing? Any observation there that is worth uh noting?

SPEAKER_00:

Not really. You know, we'll we'll sell in both years about 4 million existing homes is the pace that we're on. And builders are building about seven, eight hundred thousand new units nationally. So they'll they'll line up to be very identical, but we're not seeing a shift in uh, you know, I think builders, if they could build them faster in some markets, they would do it. Um, I you know, I I I think one of the things, and we can talk about this, you know, the biggest issue, and I'm not saying anything that people don't know, is affordability. Um, and I think that's going to become the big issue in number one in politics. You know, it's as we go into next year, 26 will be the midpoint of an election cycle. Most election cycles in the modern era are starting two years in advance. I'm not sure if that's good news or bad news, you know, that we get to start to hear that. But housing's a big issue. People are frustrated with uh their um thought they can't buy a home. And you better believe politicians are gonna jump in and and try to save the day, so to speak. And I I I think there are some good things that that could be done politically and you know to make uh our business sort of move along faster. I generally don't subscribe to the ideology that politicians can you know solve things for us uh in general, but uh but but I I think that's gonna be a big uh a big issue coming up and uh because the way the political system works is the constituent base is is frustrated with this particular thing. We're gonna jump in and save it to get your vote. Um, but uh but I think it could bode well for our business uh coming up.

SPEAKER_01:

Well, I remember a comment that uh our good friend Steve Harney shared at an event November, it was actually it was it was November 2nd, not November 4th of 2010, uh at the Baltimore, Washington Marriott. Uh we had about 500 agents at a firm I was with at the time. And I'll never forget, and I'm sure you've heard this comment that Steve made over and over again, which was I just want everybody to understand that the global economy rises and falls with the U.S. economy. A thousand percent. And the U.S. economy rises and falls with the housing industry. And then he pauses, he says, Do you like the pressure? Yeah, right. Remember that?

SPEAKER_00:

Right. And well, and Steve's point in that would always be the Calvary's not coming. You are the Calvary. Exactly. And and I think even in this, something I've thought a lot about is I've had the wonderful privilege, and it is a privilege to share the message of keeping current matters with a lot of um agents this year. And I I feel certainly uh very, very honored to do that. But I will tell you, when I walk into a room and and I'm with agents, there are agents that are going, I'm having the best year of my life, and agents that are struggling. And I don't say that in a disrespectful way, but this is this market, right? Several years ago, everybody was winning, so to speak, right? Everybody was was on the trajectory up, like, man, we love this business. But but this is a market that sort sort of starts to separate. And and I do think it has a lot to do with how you see the market. Do you see yourself as somebody who's like, hey, I'm gonna lead the charge or sort of um uh subject to what uh what goes on out in the world and politically and economically, all that kind of stuff. You know what I mean?

SPEAKER_01:

So uh uh, first of all, appreciate that insight. And you know, that midterm election year is always intriguing, right? Again, not to be political, but at the end of the day, we've got to understand that it plays a role in what does happen. And so uh obviously 2026 is that year. Um, you know, uh, as Dave mentioned, had a chance to come uh spend a great day with us on September 24th uh in our fall convention, and Dave did uh uh, as always, a great job. Uh there are a couple uh stats I I reviewed the slides that you had gone over there, and I think it's really worthy of continued conversation. Uh and I think you've already mentioned it, which is uh could be the most challenging year of home sales relative to population. But I think the other thing that you shared was there's population, but then there's the population that owns homes. Correct. And and and I think sometimes uh we we we need to understand what those numbers are. You've heard me share time and again, numbers are interesting, but if I know what to do with them, they can become impactful uh and make a difference in my business, in the way that I communicate, what narrative do I control? Numbers are great, but uh we have to get beyond them being interesting and move them to be impactful. So that's a little bit about that, and then uh I'm gonna shift gears a little bit to price reductions because I think that's a big change uh that we've experienced over kind of 12, 18 to 24 months. So we've got a population of 350, 355 million, whatever in the US. What percentage of those are homeowners?

SPEAKER_00:

Oh gosh. Uh percentage of home ownership in this country put me on the spot here. I don't know that off the top of my head.

SPEAKER_01:

I apologize. No, no, it's all right. I think the number is 120 million households.

SPEAKER_00:

Is that uh I think it's fair. Yeah, I don't know the exact number. I'll say a couple of things about where we sit right now with home ownership. One, when when we when we talk about it in our business, you know, there's more equity in homes today than ever before. Living a very, very strong market, and I mentioned that when we were together, um, you can make that case. The other thing that is very true, and it's come out this year statistically or factually, that the equity in homes is skewed towards older generations, which is not surprising, right? If you're in your 50s, 60s, 70s, you have a the lion's share of equity in your home uh in you know today's world. The other thing that if you start to look at this market, just in the last few days, I'm sure you maybe saw it, maybe people listening to this podcast, for sure people will have seen it, that the turnover rate in housing is the lowest it's been in history. And one, always when you look at a report like that, just become curious and go, whoa, what are they talking about? It's it's factually correct. But the time period that they used for that report was January of this year to September of this year. Which again, 2024, 2025, let's call them mirror images for that point. But we're starting, what I'm seeing is us starting to turn a corner here with really with mortgage rates kind of leading the way, with with a couple other things happening. And so when I look at home ownership, equity strong, homeownership uh roughly it bounces around in the census, you know, in the in the low um 60s, you know, of the percentage of people. We could do the math on that. I'm not that smart uh here on the on the fly to do it, but you know, we know what's what that is. And we know in our business we want to help people buy homes. That's why going back to what I said, I do believe there will be political pressure on certain aspects of housing to produce more affordable housing. And I don't mean that in the the old Section 8 affordability, but but something that someone can can buy. You know, I've got I mentioned it uh there when we were together, my oldest is 23 years old. He just got married, and they're going, are we gonna be able to buy a house? How do we buy a house? And you got a whole generation wondering that right now, that that I think there is going to be political pressure, and that and that will bode well for real estate. That's a good thing, you know. Um uh housing prices have have no doubt soared in the last uh five years.

SPEAKER_01:

Uh soared in the last five years and are uh going up much slower uh around the country, albeit in many markets, just confirm for our listener. We're still getting price appreciation. It's just at a very different level than we had. I I don't even say Dave become accustomed to. I say be spoiled by. Well, right, totally. So uh uh walk us through a little bit of uh pricing in 25. We are gonna get into projections for 26. What did you see in terms of pricing uh home prices in 2025?

SPEAKER_00:

Well, you know, I think the a couple of things I will say about this. Again, going back to what forecasters said about this year, the forecast on the front end of this year nationally, and I'm gonna talk nationally for a second, was about three to four percent home price appreciation in this country. And that's very normal historically. For the last 20 years, it's been about 3.8% uh that homes would go up in value each year. That's a normal amount, if that's such a word. Uh this year, we will see nationally somewhere around one to two percent, depending on when it all shakes out. Call it flat price growth. We won't see price depreciation in residential real estate in this country. And oh, by the way, there's nobody calling for price depreciation in this country in the next five years. That's very important for people to understand. And especially if you're listening to this podcast, I always love this time of year because I always say we're about to come up on a you know 45-day stretch where we see more people than you know, any time of the year at Thanksgiving and Christmas parties and all the things that happen. And guess what's going to come up? The topic of real estate will come up. We all know it, right? Everybody's got an opinion about real estate. So very you know, sort of flat, anemic price growth right now in residential real estate. And uh, you know, the next five years is projected to be around two to three percent makes sense. And so I think you know, you have to kind of understand that nationally. Now let's back up to the localized markets. Right. If you take the top 50 markets in this country, about half have appreciated in price this year, and about half have depreciated. Now, I always, whenever I say that, I always want people to remember the top-end market that depreciated in 2026 will likely be Tampa, Florida, or Austin, Texas, be down about five to six percent. Both of those markets went up about 75% in the last five years. So just understand that because the question that comes is is that coming here? Right? Is that a sort of a leading indicator of what's about to come here to Charlotte, North Carolina, or wherever we're at? And the answer to that is no, but you have to pay attention. Now, let's talk about where we reside in the South. The other thing that affects prices is inventory. We know that, right? We were so depleted last several years, things flying off the shelf, prices going up extremely quickly. People like, we just want to buy it, we don't care, you know, that that sort of mentality. Well, what do we know about the South right now? We have recovered from the inventory deficits of COVID. We we've made it back, and so we're seeing the effect of price on that. So my outlook going into next year, and we are getting forecasts right now, and I can even send those some of you to to you, Gary, and people can you can get them out to people listening to this podcast. Thank you. Yeah, our um the average is about 2%. The average for the next five years is about three to four percent. Um, and so a very, very normalized price appreciation um, you know, sort of situation. Now, uh the other thing I will say is is I think a lot of people, the mentality of the consumer right now is we'll wait till prices come down. That's what people sort of conventional wisdom is. And I think we just need to do a good job of saying, hey, here are the dynamics in our market. Let's educate people and show them what's happening with prices. Because there's just not a case to be made for prices to go down in residential real estate.

SPEAKER_01:

Well, I think that combine that with, hey, I'm gonna wait for interest rates and prices to come down. And you know, we always say, you know, we we try to demonstrate pictorially or you know, with a collateral piece, the cost of waiting is real. There is a real cost of waiting if in fact we get two to three percent price appreciation. And again, Dave, you're sharing that is a national forecast. And we have to remind ourselves of uh how hyper-local the real estate market is.

SPEAKER_00:

Well, I'll give you a quick example. Um, if you take, we use the home price expectation survey, and I'll get and I'll send this to you. Um, the home price expectation survey for the next five years bounces around three to four percent, okay, but basically. If you take the average price home, and I can say this while you and I are talking, because I, you know, in the Carolinas, take a$400,000 home, very, you know, sort of average price point. If you buy that home today versus five years from now, the difference in what's being forecast is about sixty thousand dollars. So just knowing your numbers is important, right? I don't want to ever convince anybody to do anything they don't want to do, but I want to show them here's what's here's what that looks like, you know. Um, the in and I think that's important for us to to to know and consider and get the word out.

SPEAKER_01:

Uh a couple segments ago, Dave, you you mentioned turnover uh being the highest. Uh let's uh let's just take a minute. Turnover rate, excuse me. Yeah. Lowest. Uh let's just share what that means. Let a little more detail, make sure our listener understands that uh I think what you're saying, I correct me if I'm wrong, it's uh the average time between the time I buy a house and the next time I buy a house is is that zero. It's still slightly different than that. Okay.

SPEAKER_00:

So let me break that down. Um so there's tenure, and that would be the length of time in a right, which we know if you grew up in real estate, the average tenure in a home is about five years, you know, and that's what we historically live by, right? Everybody, everybody moves every five years or whatever. And we know post-08 that started to rise and went to six, seven, kind of plateaued around eight or nine. And listen, I think that number's heading north, right? Just in the surroundings that we live in, the number of people right now that have a great mortgage rate on their home, and and good for them. And I don't think it's gonna freeze our market or anything like that, but people will stay in their homes given that. So that's tenure. It's it's it's knocking on the door of 10 years and probably will go higher, right? And we we all kind of know that. Turnover rate. Now, this was a study done, and I just uh let me just go ahead and kind of break it down for you. I read Finn, and anytime something like this comes out, it gets massive sort of attention. Massive attention. But you know, in in the theory of bad news sells, right? So turnover rate in homes is lower than it's been in just about the history of housing. And what they do is they take per thousand units and they say for a thousand people, how many people moved this year? Ah, thank you. And so just to put it into perspective, and I don't have all these numbers at my command, you can go grab them. Um, in when the market was flowing and we were selling and and running hard in 21, 22, it was about 40 units uh per thousand dollars selling. Today, that's in the low 30s. So it is historically correct that turnover in housing is at a low, 10 years at an all-time high. Um, but what that leads to is it leads to headlines that say things like um uh the real estate market is frozen, right? And we know, and again, let's talk about sitting down at the Thanksgiving table. You're gonna sit down next to somebody who just read, they didn't read the article. Let me don't, let me not even say they read it. They saw a headline that says the real estate market's frozen. And listen, if you read that about any industry, you'd go, but that doesn't sound good. Sounds terrible, right? Um, and and I do think from a transaction standpoint, the beginning of this year uh was very, very similar to last year, but we're already starting to see more mortgage applications. We're already starting to see people go, um, you know, we kind of put this off. We heard mortgage rates were coming down to the low sixes, and you, you know, that's sort of that mentality of it happening. So I'm not the type of person that that believes you should put your head in the sand and not pay attention to what's out there. You should just understand it, and then you should kind of kind of ask yourself, what do I believe about it? Do I do I believe it's frozen? Do I believe people aren't aren't doing things? What do I believe about this market? Uh and and how do I help people navigate it? How do I help people transact? How do I help my team? How do I help you know anybody that's wondering uh uh how do you how do you make it in this market?

SPEAKER_01:

You know, I think back, Dave, we've already shared that the last three years, existing home sales around 4 million, new between 600 and 700,000. And and so then I love to share that number in the last three years, which one could argue has been a little challenging and at times a little uncertain. 4.6 to 4.7 million total homes have sold. And we don't anticipate that number going down. Uh, we anticipate it perhaps going up. I uh was at a meeting last week, the Realty Alliance, and we had a couple of the uh prognosticators uh think that units would be up five to nine percent. Now, again, that's a to your point, that's an opinion. Uh, but let's just say it holds with the last three years. The opportunity we have is how do we get our share of that number? Because what it proves to us is that 4 million existing and 600 to 700 new people have reasons and life's circumstances that require them to move or they choose to move. Right. I mean, to me, that's the silver lining is uh we're not getting a projection that 4 million is going to go to 3 million and 700,000 is going to go to 200. Right, right. And I think you and I talk often about the importance of perspective. I think it's interesting. Tenure at its highest, turnover at its lowest, headline, real estate's frozen. Yet what you and I just spent 30 seconds on suggests it's not frozen at all. And as a matter of fact, we think four is going to be a little more than four, and we think 690 is going to be a little more than 690. Uh the other uh a couple data points that you shared in September, you know, the biggest, I think the biggest issue we have today, the biggest opportunity, is uh tracing listings correctly from the start. Sure. And and so uh as you shared a couple data points, uh, I hope I get it right. Uh and this would be including August, not September, for four months in a row across the country. There were over one million uh listings. Correct. Yeah, yeah. And in I think July and August, alone in those static months, 20.5% of every listing on the market in that six uh 31-day period in August had a price change. And so uh let's talk about uh and I think the number, correct me if I'm wrong, nationally of every active listing today, 36 to 40 have had a price change during the term of their listing. Correct, right? And so let's just talk about that a little bit because I I still contend, Dave, that overpricing it from the beginning and having a price change is not a good strategy. That's my belief.

SPEAKER_00:

Right. And there are a lot of sellers that want to do that too. Let's acknowledge that, right? Uh they're like, well, let's just give it a shot, you know. Um so let me back up and and let me tell, you know, those listening the story of that. Maybe you were if you were with us uh, you know, there uh at the convention, good news is you're gonna hear it again. And what do they say? It takes seven times to hear it, see it. Know it, the rule of, you know, I would know these numbers. So we just got the numbers um for October. So it was the sixth month that inventory in this country was over a million units, active inventory. So it's it's sort of plateaued, come down slightly. But the the you know, the interesting thing I always think about that, it's the first time this has happened since the fall of 2019, right? So we depleted inventory, we're coming back, and you, you know, I I sort of gave that presentation. I believe it to be true. We'll end in this country uh this year in the neighborhood of where we ended you know 2019, right? So it's sort of this five-year cycle. Now there are other issues and in uh inventory, which is just fascinating, uh, honestly. The South has returned, the west is returned, but the northeast is severely down by 50%. Think about that. In the Northeast, if there were 100 homes for sale in 2019, they only have 50 right now. That's it's that's just shocking. You know what I mean? You just don't have the inventory in that part of the country. Midwest is down by about 30% from pre-pandemic levels. So, but the one thing I can say confidently is in every area of the country in the last 12 months, inventory has grown. That is true in every market. Okay. Maybe there's a small, but but regionally in these markets, everyone has grown in inventory. So we have that as an issue. Now there's some new information that's come out too, but let's go back to price reductions. As inventory grows, we start to then see price reductions, which we didn't see. The latest numbers in the last month that I haven't seen them for October, but for September it was 19.9, but it's kind of numbered in 20%. One out of five, it then that's in that month. That doesn't mean we didn't do something prior. Um, had a price reduction. So inventory's rising. People aren't getting the price they want. Sellers are like, hey, we're ready. I mean, I mean, sellers are like, hey, we're gonna hold on to our price. Buyers are like, we're ready, right? To see some some price reductions or whatever the case is. Um and there's sort of this mismatch between buyers and sellers. Now, let me pause for one second. I think this topic is probably one of the easiest topics to put information out on in your market. And it's one of the ones that does a great job of educating consumers, right? So if I'm in a market in Raleigh, let's say, for example, I could very easily go, hey, this time last year there were X number of homes on the market. This time, right you know, right now, they're X number of homes. We've grown by 15% or whatever the sort of information is. The second piece that I want to say, the average days on market right now, a year ago was X. Today it's this. That's what's happening right here where we're at in our real estate market. That way people kind of go, oh, okay, I see that. I, you know, I always make the joke, you know, sellers are like, we're gonna sell it in two hours for 50 times what we bought it for, and you know, go go right off into the sunset. And um and the market is is shifted. Now, here's what's here's the new information that's fascinating. And you can go, if you're listening, you can go to the Keeping Current Matters Instagram feed and find. This video. It's got over half a million views on it right now in the last couple weeks. Realtor.com came out and said D-listings in this country are 57% higher than they were the same time last year. So let's think about that. People taking their home off the market has skyrocketed. I'm going to say 57%. I'm going to call that skyrocketed, right? Right. Year over year. Why is that? Why is that? Well, my contention, and you could anybody listening could have a different opinion than me. You know how I feel about that, Gary. Um one, they don't understand the velocity of the market. Most sellers in today's market, if they don't have an offer in the first week, they're like, why didn't it sell? Why didn't it sell? Most sellers don't understand the growth and inventory that's happened in the last year. And so if we just pay attention to a few of the things that are happening, we can go out and educate people and show them this is what's happening in the market and hopefully avoid some of those issues, right? Um, and avoid somebody taking their home off the market because of one reason or another, but likely due to a pricing situation, likely due to a time, you know, a timing of the market and how quickly it's selling uh type of issue and mismet expectations, right? That's that's the bottom line.

SPEAKER_01:

Awesome. I think that's an amazing number. I happen to see that reel on your video on Instagram. Uh think about the great data that Dave has already shared. So uh really too.

SPEAKER_00:

I'm sorry for all that.

SPEAKER_01:

No, no, I I love it because I I want everybody to listen to this more than once. I always say uh there are many of our podcasts that many people are walking in or driving, then there are some you really need to to do it at a desk and take some notes. Uh and while Dave and I have an agreement not to do an infomercial for KCM, we're gonna do an infomercial on know the numbers. Totally. And KCM is a resource for you to know the numbers. Uh, I I did a uh a session yesterday with our 28 brand new agents that joined us called Orientation. And uh I talked about, I said, you know, the first thing I say is you gotta have a written business plan, Dave. And the second thing is you have to know your numbers every day. Don't just know them when you're going out on a listing presentation. Don't just know them when you're having a buyer consultation. Yeah. Because you made a comment that says the next 45 days, the number of people that you are going to be with, interact with, discuss with, have a cocktail with, and they want to know about real estate is going to be at a 45-day high over 365 million. Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01:

Next 45 days.

SPEAKER_00:

Let me give you can I give you a couple of things that I would know my numbers on? Yeah. Just a couple of things that I would know my numbers on. Two two things come to mind immediately, and I'll tell you a story. Um, I so let me back up. Around May, the middle of May this year, mortgage rates peaked for the year. And you can go to Mortgage News Daily, you can go anywhere and find what that rate was. But call it's knocking on the door of 7%. Okay. Uh uh, middle of May. Now, where we sit today, I looked this morning, 6.3, you know, that's going to fluctuate based on what the Fed says and all this stuff. But I would take my average price point and I would have at the tip of my tongue to say this year or since May or whatever, the average mortgage payment here in where we're at has gone down. And I'll tell you the national number is a little over$300. So is is what's happening in real estate? Well, the average mortgage payment went down$300. That's a good thing. We we had a KCM member that took a graphic that we had showing that, texted it out to 40 people they had been, you know, talking with or said, I'm thinking about buying, got 18 responses, booked seven appointments, and closed a deal within this sort of couple of week period. And and again, I'm not more saying these are the things that you get people's attention with. The second thing I would do, this is very interesting. So one of the things that a lot of people wonder is when will we be back in the fives again? And I I listen, nobody has the answer to that or crystal ball, but I happen to be a little bit more bullish on us dipping our toe in the fives. I think we'll bounce around the low sixes and you know, listen, some good economic data comes out or something. We we see a little bit of wind at our back in the mortgage business. I think it could be sooner than possible. I think it'll be fleeting, right? We'll go, oh, guess what? We just dropped into the fives, and you know, I think it'll get a lot of attention. Is I would do this right now and I would know it, and I'd create content on it. Take your market and take the average price point and the mortgage rate that you're at right now. 6.3, 6.25, whatever, and do the math on the difference between that and 5.99. It'll shock you because it's not that much money. But consumers are like, you know what, we're gonna we're gonna wait till interest rates hit 5% and we're gonna jump in. All right. Well, the difference in that mortgage payment in most of our markets is less than$50. And you could even probably apply a buy down, a seller-funded, you know, buy down, and buy the rate down an eighth and accomplish that. But here's the bigger issue is when that does happen, and I happen to believe it'll it'll happen sooner than than we think, kind of a toe dip kind of kind of scenario, is you'll see a lot of people rush in. There's opportunity right now to deliver that message and go, hey, look, if you want to get ahead of that, now is the time. But I would know some of those numbers and how our market's reacting because there's good news there. There, there's I'm always looking for, I don't want to uh approach life with a rose-colored glasses perspective, but I do want to share good news. I'm always looking for how can I encourage somebody, how can I share good news? And and I and I think there's information if you pay attention to go, hey, this is interesting. I can share this with those that I you know that I serve.

SPEAKER_01:

It's funny you talk about the rose-colored glasses. Here at our company, uh, they will refer to that at times as Gary Speak. Well, because I do believe, Dave, as you do, that when you peel the onion back on anything, you can create a narrative that is maybe different than the narrative people are accustomed to. Sure. It's simply an opposed, it's just a different perspective on the same topic. And and I think the other thing you mentioned earlier, and I and again, I would uh I would add this to my takeaways uh for every listener today, and that is the headlines in the newspaper and on the news very rarely tell you the story. I remember at convention, you reminded us uh that the news is to uh is is created to scare to fear you, not educate you. Sure.

SPEAKER_00:

The job of the news is to watch more news. That's the job of the news, right?

SPEAKER_01:

And you made it very clear that it's our job to educate. I use the term disarm and interpret the media for our sphere of influence. You know, that's really our job every single day. I don't know if you noticed, I took a note, Dave. I wrote minute 34 to 36. I'm gonna snip at that, which would be the numbers that you must know going into the holiday season. Make sure we'll run that clip. Thank you.

SPEAKER_00:

You know, I love that. I I think there's uh a couple of things uh about that. I I oftentimes we'll mention this. One of the most favorite videos that I, it's a short video. I may have mentioned it, I can't remember when we were together, that Simon Sinek uh does. Did I mention that? Do you remember? You did not. Simon Sinek, you know, who wrote the book uh Start with Why, and he's a prolific kind of communicator. Um, he has a video, and you can go Google it right now. It's the difference between blind positivity and optimistic leadership. And there's a lot of blind positivity in real estate. And blind positivity is I sort of, you know, kind of take this approach. It's like, don't look over there, don't worry about that. That's not a big deal. Or I stick my head in the sand and I don't, I don't sort of look at what's around me. But but optimistic leaders say, I see what's around me and I find a way ahead. And I know this, I know that better days are ahead. And that's my message. I think as we turn the corner into uh into 2026, Gary, I think we will see a better mortgage-rated uh uh environment. I think we will see more homes sold next year. And and forecasters are certainly saying that. And I think in these moments, that is where the great teams and the great agents make up ground, right? That they start working on it earlier versus somebody that kind of recognizes it in the rearview mirror. You know, like, whoa, things, things, things turned around. I think we will see a different market going into 2026 for a lot of different reasons. Um, you mentioned some of the ones that you had heard uh talk about that.

SPEAKER_01:

Well, I think the other thing you mentioned earlier was, and I experienced it as I uh get through our footprint is the number of people who are having one of their best years ever. You know, I always say I break it into a third, whether it's a traditional bill curve, 2060, 20, or a third. A third of the people are having the best year they've ever had, a third of the people are really struggling. Yeah, yeah. And a third of the people are on or about where they thought they would be. Uh, you know, we call it agent uh productivity distribution. You know, clearly there have been uh many of our trusted advisors and professionals who have taken advantage of a unique opportunity of the challenging uncertain market to grow their businesses. And they did it by being intentional, being disciplined, being consistent, knowing the numbers, and leveraging these incredible relationships that many of them have built uh over the years. I think the other thing that's fascinating is the number of agents who may have joined in 2021 and 22, not at a time when maybe I had to get the proper preparation to be a real estate professional.

SPEAKER_00:

You didn't.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, you didn't, but some of them are succeeding. Sure, yeah, yeah. You know, and and I think those are the great stories because they haven't had to navigate some of the some of the stormy seas. So you began your projections uh uh ahead of me a little bit. So uh I'll recap a couple. One is you think interest rates in the low sixes dip our toe in a five. Yeah, but let's not let that help dick, let's not allow that to dictate one of the things you mentioned that we've been encouraging our sellers to do is proactively buy the rate down so that if I'm competing against six listings, I'm already buying it to five and three-quarters, and that's part of my value proposition as a seller.

SPEAKER_00:

And that's a you know, if you take ten or fifteen thousand dollars, whatever number you want to, that is a better scenario than taking that off the list. Right. We know that. And so that's I would be advocating for that. I think it, you know, in the last few years, uh two-one buy downs, all those things, you know, that that uh lenders use have uh been used, but I I think we're still in a market right now where that's going to be a differentiating factor.

SPEAKER_01:

Uh a couple other questions. Uh take a minute, Dave, uh, as we uh bring a close to this morning. And by the way, again, just thanks for spending time with us. Consumer confidence. I know you you monitor consumer confidence. I love consumer confidence because it's a lead measure, not a lag measure. So much of what we look at is what happened, uh, where consumer confidence, you know, at least by its design, is to do a little bit of uh predicting a future behavior of the consumer. What uh what is your what are you seeing in consumer confidence the last couple months? Yeah, and what do you see go forward?

SPEAKER_00:

Well, you know, obviously we're in a in a little bit of a weird time and the government shuts down and all that. That will move on and let's not focus there, but that does skew things. I I think we're in a time with consumer confidence where people have questions. Uh they don't look at the job market and go, okay, everything uh is going great. And matter of fact, that's backed up by data. Um, you know, job growth in this country has sort of been on this downward trend. That's that is the truth. And I do think when you when you read some of these jobs reports, they've been artificially inflated with the the amount of um government sort of participation, either in federal government you know jobs or you know, healthcare or things that are highly regulated. So I do think there are questions about the labor market. And and I do think there are people right now that are kind of going, gosh, I don't know. I think they're they're less uh uh confident. Now, how does that you know translate to our business? We all know if consumer confidence is waning, then people are less likely to participate in buying a any major purchase, housing certainly being one of those. And so I think we have to be able to communicate them the facts of this market because let's kind of take a step back. Let me just do the psyche for you of the consumer. I heard the market's frozen, right? I see the dynamics at play. Prices rose very, very quickly. Doesn't seem like the home down the street is worth it. Oh, by the way, I'm concerned that I might not have my job, or my spouse may not have my job, or I'm just generally concerned of what I see happening economically. Um, and it's a recipe for people to go, we're good. We have a 1% mortgage or a 30-year fixed mortgage rate, whatever they have, you know, and and and we're good versus really understanding what's going on. Now, listen, if if folks are holding off the right thing for them to do, then we certainly want them to do that. But if they're doing it because they're misinformed, we want to step into to the uh the position to inform people. Now, I I I mentioned this, I know for sure when we were together. I think one of the best things about our economy right now and in the world that we live in is we as agents and people in our business are a more trusted source for the truth than any other you know, outlet. News, whatever it is. Um and I I think that is our job is to be consistent in what we do, certainly from what's happening in the market, but just consistent activities going into next year. Consistency wins uh for sure.

SPEAKER_01:

So that might be the first time that I've heard anyone uh say it the way you just said it, which is uh in 2026, weight we should be, and if we do our job right, we will be the most trusted source of data and information regarding the real estate business. But it takes an intentionality for every one of our listeners to make sure we educate ourselves every single day about the data about the market that I am in, and don't allow our sphere uh to be influenced by a uh Wall Street Journal, New York Times, USA Today headline that is spanning a marketplace that includes markets that are not Charlotte, not Raleigh, not Richmond, not Asheville, not the low country, et cetera, et cetera.

SPEAKER_00:

Let me tell you why I say that too, because I think this is important. People see the head, and I made the joke like somebody's gonna see that headline, they're not gonna read the article because that's how our world works. They see a snapshot in the world. But the reason I say that is the way people are consuming information now is through podcasters, right? On a subject. And now they're polarizing subjects that you know we we know that are in the world and podcasters cover and all that, but that's what people value. They they value hearing from someone where they don't feel like you have an embedded reason to say what you're saying. And we need to pay attention to that too, you know, because they used to always call it commission breath. Like, well, you'd say that because you're in the business. No, we need to lay the facts out. You know, Steve Harney, who you and I both uh loved and you know was founder of KCM, used to always say, he'd always say this, he'd say, David, there's not good news and there's not bad news, there's just the news. And that's the reality, right? I need to be able to deliver both sides of it. The price issue, the affordability issue, all the things that I want to, and I always want to show people a way forward. And we have that ability in the world we live in.

SPEAKER_01:

I I love it. Uh, a recent guest on reality, a friend, a really good friend of mine, a gentleman named George Ellison. Uh George has created a uh a platform for the everyday investor to receive data and information similar to what the institutional investor uses to make their acquisitions. Right. Uh George was a CEO of a REIT that had sold, and George is a cool friend of mine. And so in my podcast with him, he uh he calls me dude. He says, Hey dude, listen, he said, uh, I know you know this, but it's called uh management MBF, management by facts. And uh, you know, I grew up uh in the business with my father, and it was management by walking around. Yeah, right. And uh, you know, you and I I I sent you a note and I said, you and George would love each other, right? It's it's management by facts, not opinions. Yes, we have to garner our opinions based on facts, but when we are locked into data and facts, we can then have a far more educated conversation with people to educate them. And I think that is where we will, to your point, be the singular source uh or the most trusted advisor. All right. Uh we could talk for another hour. I'm gonna just uh I'm gonna close with uh one of the most compelling charts that I saw KCM come out with this year. One of the most interesting opportunities afforded every one of our listeners, Dave, is this data that says 30 days after a seller is surveyed, 90% say they will use their realtor.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01:

Yet I saw a number from KCM that said that number has gone to 8% actually use realtors.

SPEAKER_00:

92% don't, right?

SPEAKER_01:

So I always used to say it was 91 and 17 or 79 and 70. I mean, the numbers have moved. So I share this all the time because what an opportunity. If 91 say I will, and only 8% do, what an opportunity to I I've I've shared this, Dave. I think currency for 2026, in addition to being the uh source of accurate data, is your database. Your database is your currency. And I think your data that you shared speaks to that in volumes. Just share a couple final thoughts on that before we uh bring uh reality to a close here this morning.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, no, I I I those numbers are shocking, right? And and they're they're shocking because of probably a couple of things. One, it's a a reflection of how many of us have not stayed in touch truthfully with people, maybe a postcard or an email or whatever, but have you stayed in touch? Two, do they see you as the source of knowledge for real estate? Because everybody, we we all know that. We're all hearing somebody, you know, is thinking about moving uh or thinking about selling, thinking about buying, whatever it is. Um and and the question is, do they go, well, you've got to call so-and-so? That's the question. And so I I think those numbers are probably you know skewed across our business. The best agents are are retaining a lot higher. But even if you take about the here's an interesting, if you want to you want something to, I want to encourage you. This may discourage you, okay? If you were to open up your phone right now and you were to say, how many contacts do I have in it? Statistically, in 2026, five percent of those people will make a purchase or sale of a home. The question is, are they going to use you? Right? Those transactions are are are right there. You know, one of the other things that I would say, and I'll leave you with this. One of the best questions you can ever ask somebody in the scenario we're talking about, sitting down with somebody at the kitchen table, or you meet somebody who's thinking about real estate, is you say this. You say, has somebody taken five minutes and educated you on what's happening in this real estate market? I will guarantee you that 90% of the people will say no. Because we don't think about it. We think about getting the listing, we think about getting the the buyer agreement signed, whatever it is. We don't think about, hey, let me just educate you on what's happening right here. And I'm telling you, if you do that and you continue to do that with people, they will use you. That is the truth.

SPEAKER_01:

Uh I'll uh that first of all, uh, you know, the last two minutes, uh, the nuggets in the last two minutes. I'm not gonna give anybody a hall pass not to watch or listen to the first 51. Uh I will uh I will uh piggyback off your last two comments. Uh one of our regional vice presidents, you had a chance to meet, Brian Kaggle, great guy, been in the business 17 years. Uh about a year ago, he uh he began asking the question Is the house you're in right now the right house for you? Are you in the right house today for you? What an interesting, thought-provoking question that would cause you to pause, right? Uh and evaluate and think about if you just take your question, has anybody taken five minutes? And do you think, based on your current needs, that you're in the right house?

unknown:

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01:

Well, I I think think about uh you you made a comment about the importance of being incredibly curious, you know, curiosity, being a good idea.

SPEAKER_00:

You know, I don't know if you know Jimmy Mackin, who uh I do not win listing leads, probably one of the most brilliant minds relative to our business. He has this this question. This is a great question. He said, here's what you can ask people what's the probability you'll be living in this home in five years? What's the probability? So all of those little little questions that allow us to interact with people, right? And just understand what they have going on, share a little bit of our knowledge, and be the resource when the time comes.

SPEAKER_01:

I love it because it causes people to think. And I think the better questions you ask, the better your relationship is going to be. For sure. So uh we're gonna uh say thank you to Dave Childers for being with Reality Podcast. Uh this will air sometime near uh the end of near Thanksgiving. So uh it might be a little before Dave or a little after. So uh we will always uh end with a number one, thanks to our listeners. Number two, three, great guest, David Childers. We wish everyone a happy Thanksgiving and holiday season. Uh and remember, these are the most important 45 days for a real estate professional. Uh finish strong, and uh at least 12 great nuggets came from uh our visit today with Dave Childers. Dave, my friend, thank you for being with us.

SPEAKER_00:

Thank you, sir. Thank you so much. Hope everybody has a happy Thanksgiving.

SPEAKER_01:

Thanks, Martin.

Contributor

Gary Scott

Host