Five Industry Leaders Forecast 2026 Sales, Prices, And The Path Back To Affordability

Want a realistic roadmap for 2026 housing? In this episode you'll hear the top minds at Howard Hanna Allen Tate connect the dots that actually matter: how inventory is building into a healthier four-to-five months of supply, why six percent is becoming the new mental norm for mortgages, and where modest price gains can coexist with improving affordability. No hype, no doom—just a grounded view of what will move buyers and sellers.

We dig into existing home sales and why a stronger starting inventory may lift unit volume even without dramatic rate cuts. On new construction, we unpack how builder incentives are moving standing inventory, why permitting speeds could change the math, and how Southeast markets are still drawing capital despite margin pressure. You’ll hear a clear, practical take on mortgage rates: what keeps them range-bound, what could push them into the fives, and how a single digit can unlock millions of additional eligible buyers.

The conversation sharpens around pricing power and balance. With more listings and slower appreciation—think one to four percent—multiple-offer drama fades while appraisals get cleaner. We outline a field-tested agent playbook: set seller expectations with data, launch listings with precision, and use payment math plus wage gains to reframe affordability for first-time buyers and move-up clients. We also explore jobs and inflation in plain English, showing how softer labor data and calmer energy costs can nudge financing without promising miracles.

If this helped sharpen your 2026 plan, follow the show, share it with a teammate, and leave a quick review. Your feedback helps more pros find the data, strategy, and encouragement they need to win the year.

Transcript

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SPEAKER_05 2:09

As our esteemed panelists are joining us for the last real talk of twenty twenty-five. I want to shout out real quick to Lake Norman and Melissa Turney. They were the first to share a watch party. We will make sure that we recognize everyone else. I have to share this. One of the reasons I was a little off of one o'clock is uh I got this call today from CNBC. Uh rumor had made its way uh to New York that the five most incredible prognosticators, real estate experts were gonna have a real talk and predict the housing industry. So I could not be more excited today that it's live for you that are tuning in. It will be archived on Hannah University. It will probably show up in a weekly update, but I am so excited that the five of us on a recorded uh edition of Real Talk will be on Squawk Box tomorrow at noon. So I'm not asking you to get out of your watch party by any stretch, but I gotta tell you, everybody out there is looking at projections, and I will go on the record, there is not, and there will never be a more qualified group of experts. So let's get started. I know none of these folks need an introduction, but I'm gonna do it anyway. Uh, we are missing one of the most valued part of our uh our favorite real talk, which is our projections. Mr. Eric Heinschel got called out into a meeting. So Eric is not with us today. Uh I shared with him earlier, I said you got to give me your projections because we will include them. So let's do some introductions. From Virginia and Northeast North Carolina, regional vice president, Mr. Mike Grogan. Mike, welcome.

SPEAKER_00 4:10

Thank you for having me, Gary. Can't wait to get this thing started.

SPEAKER_05 4:13

All right, good to see you. From Howard Hannah Mortgage, we got Mr. Mark McGoldrick. Mark, how are you?

SPEAKER_04 4:21

Doing great, Gary. Thanks for having me.

SPEAKER_05 4:23

You got it, buddy. And uh from uh all over the enterprise, and then some uh hailing at this moment in Ashboro, North Carolina, Phyllis Brookshire. Phyllis, good afternoon.

SPEAKER_01 4:36

Good afternoon. Excited to be here today.

SPEAKER_05 4:38

Yeah, we're fired up. This is the most anticipated real talk each and every year. And from Asheville Mountain, Mr. Neil Hanks. Neil, welcome.

SPEAKER_03 4:48

Hey, good afternoon, everybody.

SPEAKER_05 4:51

It's good to see you. We're gonna add a little feature today. Uh, you know, in today's world of AI and Chat GPT and Gemini, uh, we're gonna add a little fun feature to Predictions 2026. Uh, Gary and Neil and Mark and Mike are gonna give ours. Phyllis is then gonna partner with Gemini. And at the end of each of our topics, he's gonna share, at least from Gemini's perspective, how these four other pundits did. So without any further ado, I want to welcome everyone that is having a watch party. Uh, hopefully, depending on where you are in the footprint, there was some weather in a couple of different places. I hope you're safe and sound. And it is great to be with you uh on the last uh edition of Real Talk 2025. That by itself is hard to believe. So we're gonna give a start with existing home sales projected in 2026. I'm gonna go in no particular order, but I'm gonna start with Mr. Mark McGoldrick. What does the mortgage wizard think about home sales?

SPEAKER_04 6:03

Well, you know, Gary, I think everybody else will have kind of a different lens. My lens uh is of course interest rates and mortgages and what that does and affordability. So, you know, I think we'll close the year at about 4.1 million. Um, and uh, you know, kind of burying the lead, but I think we're gonna be up next year. Um today we go into 2026 in a much better place than we go into 2025. So, you know, it's not like we need magical things to happen. We kind of need the momentum to continue. So if the momentum continues, if we stay within this range, and I'm sure later on I can get into some details on it, you know, I think we're up for a 4.2, 4.2.5 uh type of year. That said, maybe we'll talk about it later. There are things that could make that different um that are some of them are on the trend line, some are counter to the trend line. So there's reasons to be optimistic, I think, going into the year. But um, yeah, probably looking for you know the uh 5-7% growth over the year.

SPEAKER_05 7:05

Awesome. So uh I made a little note, I got a little grid here. Uh I've learned over the last three years that instead of a scratch pad, I've got down the left-hand side of my column all eight topics. Across the top, our esteemed guests. I'm filling it in. Mark McGullberg, 4.2 to 4.25 existing home sales. He's gonna add in a little bit later, some things that could move that either way. Anyway, excellent. Uh Mike Grogan, what are you thinking, my friend?

SPEAKER_00 7:32

Yeah, you know, we had a pretty strong year, a little bit stronger than most states in Virginia when it comes to sales. I mean, even price-wise, we were up about three to six percent price-wise this year. Rental rates, believe it or not, I think have had a big factor in a lot of what's going on, though, because our rental prices went up in about six to 10%. So really tracking a lot faster in that uh appreciation of what landlords were cashing in on versus what the homeowner could cash in on. Now, I'll tell you one thing that I do think we're gonna see is maybe a little bit about Mark's world here too. That 6% rate, that that rate that's around 6% for the 30-year fixed mortgage right now, fluctuating just above that up and down a bit, uh, it's kind of becoming the new norm. And because it's becoming the new norm, I think it really has put a lot of confidence in a lot of people's minds to go ahead and move and maybe not simply sell their house, but even turn it into a rental. And I'll tell you that's something that's interesting that that we're starting to see more and more of here is that that primary home becomes a rental and they buy another one because they've saved up money over, say, the last five or six years while they've been, or say four or five years while they've been in that house. So that's kind of an interesting plan. I think that really could negatively affect some inventory for us, but at the same time unlock some of the movability of the consumer out there. So we're looking, though, for a sales rate to be up about one to two percent from where it was last year, and pretty confident we'll see that. A lot of factors out there still to play out, I think, at the beginning of this year after a new election and some other things that we just saw in Virginia. So, you know, as soon as those things start to hammer themselves out, I think we'll have a lot more uh more of a strong feel of exactly where it's going.

SPEAKER_05 9:20

Awesome. Awesome. So I did a little math. I think what Mike Rogan's saying is on the existing home sales. I love the rental piece. Uh, we talked about it two years ago. I know Neil Hanks talked about that a lot. Uh, I know I shared with the panelists the eight topics today. I left out uh price appreciation, which we'll add into it, but also the rental environment uh is really interesting. And uh just a little fun fact uh for those uh tuning in today is you know, we took our first foray uh from I'll call the legacy company into property management, a business that Mike Rogan and his team have been have been in. Uh, we acquired a property management company in Hilton Head. And one of our goals in 2026 as an organization is to add companies from the property management side of the business throughout our footprint. So again, always evolving. We took some great pages out of what Mike and Amy have done very successfully in the Virginia Beach market. So I'm gonna say that Mike's kind of saying, uh, you know, a little bit growth, not a whole lot more existing home sales. But again, uh the uh I think the willingness of the consumer is something to pay attention to. Neil Hanks, where do you come in on existing home sales?

SPEAKER_03 10:38

Uh you know, I'm I'm willing to be a little bullish on existing home sales. You know, all of um realtor.com, rep in Zillow, AI, Gemini, uh everybody's kind of in that one 4.1 to 4.26 range if you you know if you read predictions. I I think we're gonna do a little better than that. Um and I'll and I'll tell you why. Um we're headed into next year with more inventory than we've had in years. Um I know we certainly are here in the mountains, and and I think we are across the the Carolinas in Virginia, and and therefore I think we're gonna have a good start. Um and I think that's gonna happen across the country. Uh and I don't think a whole lot of people are thinking about that. The slight improvement in interest rates, wages are supposed to be up, consumer confidence is good. You know, I I just think we're gonna have a pretty good start to the year, which will uh which will carry on to a very good year. So, you know, 4.35, 4.4, um, a little better than you know, I'm I'm willing to stretch. I don't want to get too crazy. But if you think about this, Gary, if we think pre um pre-COVID, look at those pre-COVID years, uh 2013 to 2019, we were averaging above 5 million uh annually in in home sales cross-country, 5.2 uh or better for you know six, seven years, you know, pre-pandemic. So, you know, to think that we would get to 4354 to me is not that big a stretch. So I'll be a little optimistic say we're gonna do better than the uh than the National Session realtors thinks we're gonna do. Awesome.

SPEAKER_05 12:31

So uh excellent insight. We'll get to Gemini in a minute. It it's interesting. I took the liberty to do a little homework in preparation to go back the last two and a half decades from 2000 to today and what has transpired. Neil already alluded to it. So I always find these numbers interesting. Existing home sales in 2005 were 7.2 million. So just think about that number and think about we've hovered at 4 million the last three years. We were at 6.12 million in 2021, you know, 5.64 million. And so to Neil's point, you know, over the last decade plus, we've averaged 5.2 million. So I have not uh gotten together with Neil on this. Uh so I made a decision to be bullish on existing home sales for many of the reasons you all have shared. So I actually went back to a year, 2009, and I'm gonna predict we are gonna do 4.34 million. So I'm just a hair below Neil's aggressive approach. I'm a little more aggressive than than the two M's, Mike and Mark. But now the drum roll is Phyllis Brookshire and the real experts, which would be Gemini. Phyllis, you are off.

SPEAKER_01 13:55

So you're all correct according to Gemini. So um we have everything from 1.7 small increase on the realtor.com side up to National Association of Realtors, which is predicting a 14% increase, which would be like 4.6, 4.7 million in sales. So um the consensus is much more um where you all are um on here. So up to 4. You know, 4.2, 4.3 um in sales, but slow but steady, gradual improving affordability are some of the words that were consistently used.

SPEAKER_05 14:37

Awesome. Well, I I will tell you that I just received a text from CNBC that uh they think Lawrence Young is a little aggressive in his 14%, and that uh they're pretty, pretty dialed into Neil Hanks, quite frankly, the 4-3-5 to 4-0. So anyway, I think McGoldrick's having a little technical difficulty, but he'll be back. Uh, this is not the first time we've had this issue with Mr. McGoldrick. So, all right, we will get, you know, we're 15 minutes in and we're only on topic one, but it's because we're having too much fun. I will keep the kind of commentary in between, as hard as that is for me to do. Again, thanks everybody for being with us. Uh, we got 144 kind of individual logins. You know, again, Gary Scott Math says there's an average of five to 10 people at each of the watch parties. So I'm predicting that today we've got 750 to 800 people watching it live, and another 800 gonna tune in tomorrow on Squawkbox. New home sales, a big part of the business. Uh, I'm gonna go in a little different order. Uh, Mr. Grogan, what uh what is your thought on new home sales in 2026?

SPEAKER_00 15:49

Yeah, you know, we had an off-year as it was for new home sales, and there's a couple of factors I think that that really hit the new homes market pretty hard over the last few years. One of them is regulatory. If you you look right now, it's very difficult and time consuming to pull a permit to build a new house. And our our local builders in Virginia are having a difficult time dealing with the time frame of it. Now, I'll tell you one of the things that that we're hearing is a focus of not just local but bigger government is to try and streamline the process. And if that happens, I mean, I think we're gonna have a really good year for new construction. We've already seen there's a lot of permits that have been taken down on the books. There's a lot that are coming. And I think there's also a lot of confidence from the builder's market right now, getting comfortable with the environment that they're in. So we're looking to see, I mean, after being off by 9%, trying to cut that in half really in Virginia right now and try and get to about being, say, off from 5% where we were in 2023, which gets us back to about our 2020 number. And uh, you know, I think that's probably where we're gonna end up for this year, making some real headway with it, but still a little bit behind the eight ball when it comes to new homes.

SPEAKER_05 17:03

I think one of the reminders there is uh know your market, right? We're gonna we're talking some macro level here, but each and every one of you that are are tuning in today, you've got nuances, you've got circumstances, you've got, you know, uh the upstate of South Carolina spent the morning with Adam McCall, you know, uh an ordinant number of new construction sales in that market, much more so than other markets. So again, all of this is to be taken into account. Uh, Neil, what do you think about new home sales this coming year?

SPEAKER_03 17:36

You know, Gary, I think uh new home sales was one of the harder uh categories to predict for 2026. And I'll tell you why I feel that way. You know, uh the the positive news, as we mentioned earlier, is that builders are heading into the beginning of the year with a lot of inventory and they're going to move it. They're offering a lot of incentives. Um I think they're gonna move that inventory fairly quickly. Um, because they're sitting on inventory, they haven't started a whole lot of homes in the third and fourth quarter, which we'll need next year. Uh but as you look if you look at um in a National Home Builders Association uh data, they're showing consumer confidence for sales next year is high, which would lead you to think that that they will increase starts in the first part of next year. And I think that's key. If um if builders come out early in the year with starts, you know, we could have a decent year in uh in new home sales. But if um if we don't get that inventory started early, obviously it'll be a lag. Uh nationally, I think we're probably looking at 775, something like that, in uh new home sales, and and hopefully we'll do a little better than that in the Carolinas. Not better than that total, but but better than that percentage-wise in the Carolinas and Virginia.

SPEAKER_05 18:58

Awesome. Uh great insight. You know, the inventory for builders is really high right now relative to where it's been. And as Neil said, the incredible incentives being offered, you know, has uh clearly uh made uh the new home purchase uh with inventory increased and particularly mortgage incentives, it is creating a viable option for a lot of home buyers out there. Mr. McGaldrick, what do you think there, my friend?

SPEAKER_04 19:26

Yeah, about the same, Garrett. I think nationally, probably, you know, the big numbers that we hear nationally, probably slightly down. Uh, I don't necessarily think that's the case in the Carolinas. You know, you'll still hear that the Southeast is down, but so much of that's in Florida. And you gotta, you know, they they are in a totally different situation than we're in for a lot of reasons. So I would say up a little bit in our market. Um, you're right. Uh the I think it was about three or four weeks ago we started to see earnings come in from the public builders, Lenard, D.R. Horton, Poulty, and they're getting strained by their Incentives. So they're still selling the houses. They're committed to selling the houses, but the margins are dropping. So Wall Street didn't love that. But you do see the commitment to sell the houses, and our market is still better and more affordable for builders. We all know of some challenges with our local politicians or municipalities or state government that make it harder. But in truth, when you think about places like you know, California, New York, Illinois, where it is just incredibly difficult, we are still on the high side of that. So if they're going to deploy capital, I feel like the Carolinas is as good a place to deploy capital. So I think I'd think a little bit up this year.

SPEAKER_05 20:39

Got it. Awesome. So uh Neil's pretty aggressive on a national perspective. Uh I agree. Coming out of the gate is going to be a big uh indicator to that. I'm probably a little more cautious on the new side, probably because of the inventory. I came up with a specific number about 685,000. Uh again, Neil's at 775. And uh one of the reasons I like to go last is sometimes a contrarian view is the perfect setup for Gemini and Phyllis Brookshire. Phyllis, let us know what the uh proposed or supposed experts think.

SPEAKER_01 21:18

Yeah, just to clarify for the audience, I am not typing these in as you all ask the questions. I have already done the research of Gemini, so I can't change the questions that I asked Gemini, but um very consistent comment, which is new construction sales would rise modestly, somewhere between 3.1 to 8%, depending, as Mark said. There was a whole discussion about what part of the country you're in. Um and uh but new construction starts may slow down. So everything this esteem panel has said. Um so you might see more the sales growth will probably happen in the first half of the year, unless to Neil's point, the builders pick up their starts in the second half of the year. So 3.1 to 8%, which would um put them um in your range, kind of in the range between you and Neil, Gary.

SPEAKER_05 22:09

Right. Awesome. Great, great insight. So uh now we're gonna move, uh let's go to I'm gonna go out of order a little bit only because uh interest rates are such an important part of our journey next year. And so uh I'm gonna let uh the interest rate uh guru uh kick it off. So I'm gonna ask Mr. McGaldrick for his thoughts on interest rates next year. Thanks, Gary.

SPEAKER_04 22:38

Uh guru, probably the wrong term, but I appreciate the thoughts. Um, you know, we've been in this range of six to six and a half since around Labor Day. And I think, you know, Mike talked about it. I am forever grateful for that because we were in a six and a half to seven and a quarter range. Um so you know, last week we got close to six, boom, we bounce up to six and three A's. If we get to six and three A, six and a half, we're bouncing down to six, but we can't seem to get out of that range. The thing that would get us out of that range is a weaker job market. So if you look at the trend line, the job market is getting weaker, not so weak that it looks to change things with the uh with the Fed. But uh Wednesday, the Fed will be speaking, and uh, or Jerome Powell will be speaking. He will probably do his magical wordsmithing that says, hey, we're cutting the rates by a quarter, but don't get excited because we may not do it again. And um, so you know, I think he'll have a way of it'll be a cut, but a hawkish cut. Um, there's another Fed meeting in January. Uh would probably be an unlikely Fed rate change there. But what you've got probably by January is an announced new Fed president. Um, if you check the odds, the odds of Kevin Hassard is being that Fed president is uh pro pretty high. Um and really any of the three that are candidates are going to be more bullish uh about cutting rates than Jerome Powell. So you'll start to hear two voices, and that'll be interesting because sometimes it's what they say is more important than what they do when you're thinking about the future. So, you know, I think we're going into a more bullish stage. Um, but watch the jobs report. I think we have to keep inflation in check. Um, and we can talk more about that later, but it but there's more uh uh relaxation of of uh uh inflation challenges because uh I think there's some concern about uh the tariffs. But the tariffs don't impact all types of things. We got things like gas under$3, which is great news. So there's some balance to that. So I think if the job market gets much weaker, that's where you start to see interest rates cross into the sixes. Right now, I'd say without a doubt, next year we'll see that at some point. Whether it sticks or not is all about what Mike talked about, that range moving. So if that range became five and a half to six instead of six to six and a half, it's a game changer because that really, really spikes sales. So that's where sales go in a way different trajectory if we get those interest rates. So watch the job market, it'll tell you everything you need to know about whether that's gonna happen.

SPEAKER_05 25:10

So I was making a note here. Did Mark McGoldric just predict five and a half to six, or did he simply state that in the event they get there, he was sharing with us what would happen to the real estate market? Are you uh what month do you believe they will hit 5.5? I'm not putting any pressure on you today, but I'm just curious.

SPEAKER_04 25:29

Karen, my attempt was to not not not predict the interest rates. Um, I I would say we're gonna see that trend line is gonna get about 60 days. If if the job market stabilizes, I think it's actually second half of the year. Um, but if you start, if you if this gets weaker in January and February, be ready for the spring market, and that's our our trigger. I will say um I think you and I were at a meeting last week where Bank of America talked about FedRun's funds rate going to 3% by Q3 2026. Today we're at 3.86. That's a deep discount. So they didn't get into the why, but their why has to be jobs related because that's what's going to drive that. Plus, then in May you have a new Fed share who's just going to be more accommodative, uh regardless of who it is.

SPEAKER_05 26:17

And I think he also was very uh confident in just general uh growth of 2.4%. So uh Moynihan from B of A, pretty bullish on the U.S. economy in 2026. Uh, we had two other folks at the gentleman from Advocate Healthcare, which is uh a recent merger with uh Atrium here in Charlotte with a healthcare uh firm out in the Midwest, and then uh Compass Food Group. All three of them, obviously clearly different business minds, pretty optimistic about the overall economy next year, which felt really good. And, you know, uh Moynihan explained all of the different data points and uh algorithms and analysts. And I I would I put a fair amount of uh credibility in the data that he shared that day. So that was good. Thanks for bringing that up, Mark. Uh Mike Rogan, what are you what are your thoughts on interest rates as we move into the new year?

SPEAKER_00 27:15

Tough to follow up somebody like Mark on something like this. But I will say, yeah, you know, we brought it up before that 6% new norm is a big thing. It's a mental, it was a mental barrier before. Now it's become a mental norm. And because of that, we're not seeing resistance getting into the market nearly as much as we were just, you know, earlier in 2025, even, you know, and they are they're they're not showing resistance for getting in the market because of mortgage interest rates specifically. So because of that, that's a really good thing. Now we also brought up Kevin Hassett. Kevin Hassett's probably gonna step into one of the most difficult roles that anybody could ever step into because he's gonna be the Fed chair for our president. And that president thinks he's gonna have more influence over this person than he had over the last one, or Jerome Powell would probably still be retaining his position. So do I think that there is something there already that yes, we're gonna see maybe an additional interest rate cut, maybe a bigger cut, maybe, you know, something that just really values the real estate market? The answer to that's yes. And because of that, I do think we're gonna cross the 6% line at some point before the midway point of the year. I think when you see him after they've had a few meetings and hasn't had a few, now we're it's still a prediction that he'll be there, but he's the front runner. Um, and uh, you know, they had they had asked the president just the other day if he would be put in that position, he simply smiled. So I think that that means he's made his decision. Because of that, there is going to be a five point something percent interest rate by mid-term, by mid uh year next year.

SPEAKER_05 28:45

Awesome. Thanks, Mike. Good insight. Mr. Neil Hanks, what are you thinking?

SPEAKER_03 28:50

Man, I'm thinking I hope Mike's right. Um man, that was a great, that was a great summary, and and I had not thought about that, but you make some great points, Mike. Um, and and I hope we I hope we are under six. You know, if I too did my homework before this before this call, and most of what you read says six to six and a quarter, and I'm not um in tune enough with with the reasons that move rates to argue with that. But uh I hope Mike's right. I hope we are well below six because I do believe that that is a uh a mental number for a lot of folks, and that if we get under six, it could be a big business generator for us.

SPEAKER_05 29:32

Awesome. Awesome. So uh I'm consistent with all the above. So I I agree with Neil that you know, for the better part of the first half of the year, six to six and a quarter, Mike, as Neil said, really great description of the why. You know, six percent has clearly become uh an acceptable, manageable norm to create buyers and sellers, which feels really good. I do believe we're gonna hit five and a half. I'm a little later in the game than Mike Rogan. I'm thinking third quarter, 5.5. Again, not being an expert in some of the other metrics that are still pending, uh, as Mark talked about a little bit earlier, but I think overall uh the fundamentals of interest rates should be favorable to the housing market. And uh, Mark, uh, I'm gonna ask you to share a number that you've shared before. If the number starts with a five, how many more buyers become eligible to buy a home?

SPEAKER_04 30:38

It it moves the needle up by almost five million eligible, right? So you talk about that's moving it up as much as there are total buyers. Um so for the people who've just been pressed down either because of affordability or just perceived affordability, or maybe they you know the the delta between their current rate and new rate, it just gives them a new thing to think about. Plus, for all of us, it'll get a lot of press. A lot of press. So awareness of that affordability solution will be high.

SPEAKER_05 31:11

Awesome. Thanks, Mark. Amazing number. Just think about that, right? Think about the behavioral change of the consumer when that news hits uh hits the market.

SPEAKER_01 31:22

Phyllis, Gemini says Gemini has everything from 5.8, which comes from Fannie Mae, um, in the end, late or third quarter on in 2026, not the beginning, Gary, to your point, but not quite as low as you. Um, and up to Mortgage Bankers Association, 6.4%. So I don't think that's probably what we all thought based off of what we just heard. Um, so yeah, pretty much the same range, same reasons. Um, talked a lot of the commentary. So when you ask the questions, you get all kinds of cool explanations, but a lot of the commentary about um the psychological and financial threshold of 6%, which you all talked about. And then I thought the other statistic or comment that it made is that realtor.com, which actually is um tends to be more conservative if you look at all of their predictions, um, forecast that the monthly mortgage payment on a median priced home will fall below the widely signed 30% of median income threshold for the first time since 2022. So that's also a big factor. That came up a lot when Jim and I and I were chatting, um, came up very consistently. That was another important thing to watch.

SPEAKER_05 32:42

So, Phyllis, I saw that number this morning posted somewhere, and uh I had made a note. Thank you for bringing that up because I think those are the kind of data points that uh everyone out there listening to this, you know, the trusted advisor, the expert in the industry, know the data. Just think about the ability to go sit and talk to a buyer, sit and talk to a seller, and have these numbers kind of built into the to the narrative. Uh, you will quickly become the expert. That is what the consumer is looking to us for. And and hopefully uh real talk and other things that we do throughout the year from a communication education helps best prepare all of us uh for the marketplace uh that that we fall into. I'm gonna take a minute and uh as I like to do, and just uh shout out to some of the watch parties. I already mentioned uh watch party in Lake Norman, a watch party in Oak Ridge Commons, South Park is in the house. There's a watch party in Charlotte South. I'm just gonna go on the record. There's always a party in Charlotte South. Greetings from Frosty the Snowman in Kernersville. We talked a little bit about the weather. Heather Early chimes in. Smithfield is in the house. Hello from Asheville North, downtown Asheville. We got a happy Monday from Rock Hill. And Dakina, party of one in my home office. I am cold. So uh again, I I love the transparency of our team. So we appreciate y'all tuning in. Hopefully, uh you're getting a nugget or two or three that can help uh as you uh interact and connect with folks in the next couple of weeks over the holidays. What a great time for all of us. Uh, you know, maybe not uh overtly and robustly talk about our business, but what you and I know at a cocktail party at Christmas and you're in the real estate business, people want to know about what we do. And some of these facts and figures could be hugely beneficial, particularly after uh your cons your customer has a few cocktails, right? Um let's go to inventory. It's always a hot topic. Uh let's see what uh I'm gonna start with Mr. Hanks on inventory. And uh I would say he's got a little different lens only because I think Asheville has uh taken on a little different uh set of characteristics from uh from an inventory perspective.

SPEAKER_03 35:09

Yeah, so I think uh we've talked about inventory a couple times on these other topics. We're going into the end of the year with more inventory than we've had in quite a while, and I think it's gonna continue to climb in 2026. I think that's a good thing. Um, I think it is going to drive sales. It's been a bottleneck for for many, many years, and um and I think that increasing inventory is is gonna be one of the factors that causes me to be very bullish about the number of sales next year. Um because we've got more inventory, I don't think prices are gonna climb that much, which helps us with the affordability challenge that that we've been talking about. Interest rates drop a little bit. If prices don't uh climb much, uh wages are predicted to go up. All of those are positive factors for affordability, and again, that all of those are reasons that I think uh home sales next year, unit-wise, will will be good. Uh so we're currently in um in the mountain region a little higher than the national averages. We're running about five months of supply in in Bunkham County and um a little less and and a little more in some of the surrounding counties. But uh, you know, we've got a little room, I think, for for some uh growth in months of inventory that will help it be more of a buyer's market. And and again, I think that helps us in terms of uh unit sales for 2026. So I think inventory is going up, but I'm not uh concerned about it. I think it's gonna be a good thing.

SPEAKER_05 36:47

Awesome. Awesome. I'm gonna go to Mike. Thanks, Neil. Great, great insight. Mike, I'm gonna go to Mike Rogan because I think it's the other end of the spectrum. Uh, I think while you're at five months, I think inventory is a real challenge in the Virginia market that Mike leads. Mike, you want to uh again, we're trying to be macro, but the understanding of some micro markets and some of our unique uh, you know, kind of characteristics makes it uh again, one of the great benefits of our company is that uh we're in multiple regions that have multiple factors that uh go into our business, and we've got multiple business lines that uh contribute. So I would say that you know, one of the great values of our organization is a diversified portfolio, both in geography and business lines. And here'll be an interesting counter to the five months. Mike, you want to just share what's happening in inventory in your market?

SPEAKER_00 37:38

Yeah, you know, we just recently creeped out of the teens as far as how many days on market we were at. Now, that spreads out over a pretty good size market, if we're gonna call it that, all the way from Charlottesville to Virginia Beach. And I remember after I had uh brought up uh on another call not too long ago that we had 18 days of inventory, um, a couple people from Virginia Beach called me up and said, Whoa, you know, like, you know, over here by our our office, as you often say, Gary, it's hyper local everything we do. Um, they said, you know, we're seeing like 30, 35 days. Well, that is the case, but we, you know, in that specific market, but in some smaller markets, or, you know, even as we stretch then west from Virginia Beach, going out uh Interstate 64, that corridor, we're starting to see inventory build, though. It was for a long time. I mean, we were low and we remained low when other people didn't. A lot of national publications came out with it with kind of honing in on areas that uh were not really being affected the same way. And we were one of those areas saying that our inventory was staying low. Now, with that said, um, I can say that our listings most, you know, just to end up the year, we're creating some problems for us, our listings coming on the market, because two things that we always compare is the number of listings coming on the market and then our closed sales for that same period of time. You can layer into it days on market, and that kind of gives you your pace of sales. But we had 6% uh, you know, we were uh at 6% for our listings uh being down last year, but our closed sales were almost flat. I had mentioned that earlier on another topic that we just had. So with the listings being slightly down, or you know, down 6% and the sales being less slightly down, we're starting to see what's going to turn into some real building of inventory here. And if you talk to our managers in the market right now, they're saying the last month has had the most impact on listing inventory as anything that we've had, saying that they are starting to come to the market or they have people talking about putting houses on the market more so than they had at this time last year. So I do think listing inventory is gonna build for us. We're just a little bit further behind everybody else, um, almost in the nation, and we can always watch that Northern Virginia market and know we're gonna trail right behind them. And Northern Virginia just saw this same exact phenomenon.

SPEAKER_05 40:04

It's interesting, Mike. I was at a Realty Alliance meeting a week or two couple of weeks ago, and they were showing all markets, you know, ones that had high days on the market, and Virginia Beach kept showing up as just really challenged by inventory as it really related to the trend that many of our markets are seeing. So I think Dave Chilter said it September, correct me if I'm wrong, that September was the fourth month in a row, that there were over a million listings across the country. And again, uh, you know, you always want to know what that is uh, you know, kind of relative to, you know, back uh during the financial crisis, that number was well over three million. And back in COVID, it was well under 500,000. So again, it's all about perspective and it's about understanding it. And I think the other piece of it is making sure that everyone on this call has the market knowledge uh to do what I call disarm and interpret the media, who will put a headline in that speaks to 10 markets. Uh, you know, 10 metro markets prices are declining. That's the headline. Well, it doesn't talk about the 122 markets where they're increasing. So really, I think one of the important takeaways is to make sure you know the numbers inside and out, upside down on a monthly basis, and also pay attention to what the news is saying so that you can be proactive in your ability to disarm as the consumer is probably paying attention, not to the third paragraph, which describes it, but by the headline which uh simply states it. So, Mark, what do you think about inventory, my friend?

SPEAKER_04 41:39

You know, um, this group is more expert in this arena. I'll just talk about the macro side of things because that's where I get my news. Um, I suspect that come January of 2026, we'll probably nationally see inventory peak and then have it leak away and then look to Q4 of 2026 before that number starts to uh um balance. But I think we're going in in a great place. So it, you know, I'm so much more confident of what 2026 looks like. Um, you know, we talked a little bit about interest rates before. If we were to throw something in the mid-level fives, I think inventory goes down. There's just no way around it. Now, long term you could look at it, and builders start to get excited and confident, and that may bode well for 2027 closings because it takes them a while to go from excited to actual housing. So, you know, there's a long-term solution to that that I think is macro level better, but I suspect our inventory shrinks if we throw uh interest rate in the bodies at it.

SPEAKER_05 42:42

Well, so Mark uh started his comment by saying, uh, I don't know as much as these folks now. I think you just gave a pretty good description of what might happen to inventory next year. You know, at a high in January, lower, and back up, and then again the new housing piece. So uh appreciate uh appreciate that. So, you know, obviously uh these guys have said it. Uh, you know, the inventory is our friend right now, and more inventory. Uh, we're gonna talk about prices in a minute. Neil said it, I think best. You know, you're gonna have a housing affordability uh expansion in 2026. More people will feel more confident. Uh now we could have a whole other real talk on conversations with sellers about pricing their property correctly, which I actually think we did in November. So, you know, I think with opportunity comes additional challenges and preparation for each and every one of us. So uh, you know, again, it is hyper, hyper local, whether it be Virginia Beach or Charlotte or Asheville Mountain. Clearly, inventory is going to grow. I think the ultimate key for us is to make sure as we are part of that inventory growth, that we really stay focused on the narrative and the pricing strategies that we use to make sure that we put properties on the market that will sell, not sit. So that's just a challenge, I think, that we have as inventory grows.

SPEAKER_01 44:05

Uh Gemini and Phyllis Brookshire on inventory says Yes, uh increase modestly in 2026 compared to 2025, five to 10% growth in inventory. Um, I do think um, you know, if you asked, I asked about month supply of inventory, it was in the mid-fours, was the prediction, four to five months, somewhere in the mid-fours. Um, I just want to take this opportunity to remind everyone that a balanced market is not a bad thing. Like we don't really want to, we don't want a market that's too far. We don't want the the great reset market where it was way too much inventory and no buyers, and we don't want all the buyers in no inventory. A balanced market is better. It's better for the buyers. Um, they have more time. Um, and the sellers are still making money. So just because the seller may not have made as much money as they did on another day in time doesn't mean they are losing money on their house. They're just not making as much. There's a ton, Mark. I know you have the equity number all the time that you have, but there's a ton of equity. Everybody has a ton of equity. So yes, you may not get, you may not be able to sell. You need to be a realistic seller. The price is different today. So you're not going to make maybe quite as much, but you're also maybe going to buy your next house at a little bit of a less price. So the balanced market, I think it's just a mindset around a balanced market is not a bad thing. Um, and we actually a balanced market is actually a good thing.

SPEAKER_05 45:35

Love that insight, Phyllis. Thank you. Just a little reminder, you know, I think over the course of multiple decades, they've always said six months supply of inventory was traditionally that perfect plan, right? Uh I think the folks on this call were in a meeting not long ago, perhaps uh six months to a year ago with Matthew Ferrara. And Matthew said that, you know, maybe as we uh move out of this incredibly historically low inventory environment, maybe it's four to five becomes the new six, right? And I think that I think it really speaks to Phyllis's point. And that is that is good. Like that is really good when buyers and sellers can navigate and negotiate in a way where you know no one really has the edge. It's about it's about motivation to buy or to sell. So really good insight on that. Let's go, uh, let's go to average sale price. Uh, I think uh Neil alluded to it. I I touched on it briefly. You know, what's gonna happen with prices? It's uh it's been crazy. The equity is off the charts. And uh, I know many of us are waiting for uh what they call the silver tsunami where the the baby boomers uh will finally sell that house uh that they've had 30, 35 years. And as I often joke, that when you go out to talk to them and they explain to you that they've upgraded their kitchen and you ask when, and they say 1992. And so I know everybody on here has had that seller that thinks an update uh was 20 years ago. So uh let's talk a little bit about average sale price. I'm gonna let Neil Hanks tee it up. Uh I think he really referred to it a little bit earlier in his comments. Neil.

SPEAKER_03 47:18

Yeah, I I think that uh we're gonna see very modest price increases this year because of the rising inventory. Um you know, I just don't think that they're gonna move up as fast as as they have in some of the years past, but but also don't think we're gonna get enough inventory to where they're gonna go backwards. So uh, you know, I think we're gonna see, depending on where you are, two to five percent, two to two to four percent uh increases in prices, um, which is still in in a positive direction, but I don't think it's gonna be at the levels that that we've seen in many of the years past.

SPEAKER_05 47:58

Awesome. Mike Grogan, what do you think about prices?

SPEAKER_00 48:02

I'm totally there with Neil. You know, I don't even see it as a correction or anything like that. I think it's just us hitting the pace of the market and the pace that the market is is really commanding right now. And uh it will continue to grow. I do think because of competition, we're gonna keep a strong price there right now. And you know, here in Virginia, we're somewhere in the high 400s is, you know, I like to look at medium price a lot as opposed to kind of the average, just to throw those outliers out. And, you know, if it does creep up to that$500,000 number, I think it can have that same effect that we have with interest rates. You know, there's a there's definitely a mental block there when it comes to the$500,000 price range when we're talking about sort of the average house out there, the normal house that you would be buying. So uh kind of looking for a very slow growth in that, and really because it's all being restricted at the same time with inventory.

SPEAKER_05 48:58

Got it. Awesome.

SPEAKER_04 48:59

Good insight, Mr. McAldrick. Uh more of the same. I think we're all the same page. I'd say slight movement up. I know uh FHFA came out, I think, at one in 1.6, 1.7% um for the year. I think that kind of tension on there with a little bit of appreciation is probably about right. So, you know, we're probably uh 1% to 2% is is about what I'd expect to see.

SPEAKER_05 49:24

Got it. So uh yeah, I kind of land, Neil, two to four, you know, which you go back over multiple decades, you know, two to four, two to four, and then you get the outliers we've recently had. And I think uh I think only how many years, Mark? I know you've shown this chart a couple of times. Over the past 30 years, there's only been how many years where prices have actually gone down, like four years?

SPEAKER_04 49:46

Yeah, I think, you know, if you take the there was four years in a row, right around 07, 8, 9, 10. If you take those out, there was two other time periods for one year where prices went down.

SPEAKER_05 49:57

Yeah, again, it those are great conversation topics, uh, you know, particularly with those folks that are renting. You know, we one of the things that I think we have to do as an organization in 2026 is we have to create some consumers. We have to create some buyers and create some sellers and not just let it be up to the device uh that they have, but to educate them, uh, not to convince them and not to sell them, but to simply educate them that, you know, real estate is still remains a great place to invest and to build generational wealth and to prepare yourself for growth. So we all know that. Uh, but uh I think the what was the average age of the first-time home buyer this past year was uh 40 years old uh back in the 80s when some of us were probably buying it wasn't 40 years old. And again, I think all of us would be pretty thankful that we acquired a property and we were in our 20s because it has enabled us to be where we are today. So again, this is just opportunity that I think is uh is really important for us to take it up. Phyllis, what do the other experts in Gemini?

SPEAKER_01 50:59

Yeah, Gem Gemini agrees one to four percent. Again, the most bullish group in all the pundits online is the National Association of Realtors. I think they're just putting that out there hoping that things are going to happen the way they want. Um, but one to four percent. And um, you know, to everybody's point, like this is what we've always had. Like this is a good, healthy amount of appreciation that you can maintain over over an extended period of time. It's all positive. Um, and as price growth is at a slower pace, that helps affordability, right? And that helps everything. So I do, I do, and I know we'll probably talk about this, but the affordability piece, I think, is two conversations. One is about the non-first time buyer and their ability to afford to get into the market, and then everybody else. So, you know, kind of the affordability for the first-time home buyer is is still a challenge, even though for everybody else is it is getting more affordable, if that makes sense. I just think it's it's kind of two separate conversations.

SPEAKER_05 52:05

You know, I think it's interesting if you and I did not do this as I prepared for today, but you know, as I said, I went back 25 years in a lot of different uh uh data points. And one I didn't do was the housing affordability index. And while we're not going to get into it today, that's a really interesting number to follow.

SPEAKER_01 52:24

Uh because I asked Gemini that question, and it wasn't able to give me a good answer. Um, so I thought that was interesting too.

SPEAKER_05 52:36

Interesting. I don't I don't feel so flawed then I couldn't come up with it. But uh, you know, I I think it's again, but it's really important. Uh it's uh median income buying the median home price, and as we've all said, you know, it's gonna get better when prices go up slower and interest rates come down. You know, that gap just inherently uh works to our advantage and to the consumer's advantage. Yeah, it's not the seller who didn't sell a year ago's advantage, but they owned it for seven years, so they are just fine on the on the equity build. Uh I want to go, uh we we're we're uh we got about nine minutes, and uh I'm gonna ask uh Mr. McGaldrick uh talk a little bit, and everyone else can certainly chime in, but I I know Mark uh does a particularly good job as he as he did earlier today on the job growth uh and how that may impact or will impact 2026, and some just thoughts on inflation, and then uh we'll come back to the panelists.

SPEAKER_04 53:35

So, you know, Gary, I think on starting with job growth, probably nothing is a bigger driver of interest rates one way or the other. And without question, it's gotten softer. Now we're in a weird place as we sit here in early December uh because we haven't had any real good reporting for 60 days, right? So we're just about to start getting some October reports. Tomorrow the Jolts report comes out, the job offers and labor transfers, which is how people move around from one job to another. That'll be the first October report we get. But we have been getting the ADP report. So ADP reports are private payrolls, um, so not the government. And they've been down four out of the last six months. And and even when you think about it, if you go back a year, an ADP report under 100,000 new jobs would have been considered negative. Now we're actually getting negative reports. So something about the job market is softening. Um, not a ton of layoffs, but if you get laid off, it's taking you a while to find a new job. And that's what's leaking these interest rates down a little bit. And until or unless that shows a turnaround, the trend line's down. So you'd think the trend line's gonna have to continue to be down until something happens. So uh the Fed's gonna have some pressure uh when those numbers come out to push interest rates lower, which does not always push mortgage rates lower, but likely in this scenario would. So, you know, I think that's important. Um, the inflation thing is a mixed bag. Um, if you look at inflation from a goods perspective, it's going up. But if you look at the jobs report, the biggest job gains were in healthcare and education, two giant industries that have nothing to do with tariffs, right? So they're like full steam ahead. And that's that's working to our favor. And I think the same thing with pricing on those types of things. Gas being under$3 impacts every industry and drives uh costs down. So I think there'll be enough downward pressure. The Fed used to say we want two, they're still saying they want 2% inflation. They seem to be really good as you approach approach three, and it's over three that they start to get night sweats and you know start to behave a little uh a little differently. But you know, for right now, I would say inflation numbers under three and a half percent. The Fed's just gonna focus on jobs, and that's gonna drive it.

SPEAKER_05 55:51

Awesome. Awesome. Uh, I'm gonna ask anybody to add add to that, and then uh if anybody wants to add in, please do. If not, we're gonna kind of close it out with uh, you know, uh a thought from each of us as to uh you know what we all have to think about as we finalize our business plan for 2026. So does anybody want to add on inflation and or job growth, wages, any kind of additional color to Mark's comments? Anybody got anything?

SPEAKER_00 56:17

I'll just throw it real quick, Gary. I would say that it's interesting always, one of the most interesting uh numbers that comes out is that jobs number, and it's exactly because of what Mark was talking about, because it's also a double-edged sword. You know, I I think it negatively affects our consumer confidence when the job numbers go down, but if the job numbers do go down, then all of a sudden we have this sort of positive effect of rate. So it's really a tough balancing act. And I get asked about that all the time.

SPEAKER_05 56:46

Excellent. Phyllis, uh, I don't know if we asked Gem and I any of the above on those.

SPEAKER_01 56:51

Yeah. Uh Jim and I agrees with what Mark said very consistently. Um inflation, you know, two and a half to or 2.4 to 2.7. Um, job growth um is will slow significantly, is what it says, compared to the pace in 2025. Unemployment at about four and a half.

SPEAKER_05 57:13

Got it. Awesome. So uh as uh our panelists uh think about their closing thoughts, I'm gonna just recognize some other folks that have joined us today. We've got happy Monday from a chilly Hilton Head Island. Sun City is rocking in the low country. Uh another snow day from Kernersville, hanging out in Rutherford. Uh I just got a hello, so I'm not sure where hello came from. Uh Gastonia Watch Party Concord, High Rock Lake. It is cold Huntersville. Uh Mount Pleasant, North Carolina, Center City is in the house. Some of us from our Huntersville office. Waynesville, Waynesville. How about this watch party from Minneapolis? A party of one. All right, Davidson is here, Ashboro's here, Wilmington is in the house, and Greenville, South Carolina. We appreciate all of you tuning in. So let's uh wrap a bow around the very last uh real talk of uh 2025. It has been a good one as many of us anticipated. So I'm gonna start with Phyllis, since she was batting cleanup the entire time today and did a great job of uh but she did a great job not only of reporting on Gemini, but providing color based on experience that connected Gemini and so great job, Phyllis.

SPEAKER_01 58:49

It was fun, it was a fun way to do it. So thanks for that. Um, I think my takeaway from everything is what we say all the time, which is you really have to under, as a real estate trusted advisor, you have to understand all these pieces because our market is always changing. It's moving from one market to another market. And our buyers and sellers are always in the previous market. So our sellers are still in the I run the route, I'm I have all the power. And now our buyers think that um they have more power than they do. So understanding the market and being able to explain it to both your buyers and their sellers what their position is, it is as important. It's always important. It continues to always be important. And my other thought is that, and I've I've started to see some examples of this, so it's why it's fresh on my mind, is we need to be really sure that our sellers are properly motivated and um understand the market that they're selling in. Because I do think we still we have, as I said, sellers that have unrealistic expectations, and then they're just going to take their Home off the market. And then we will have wasted our time and effort. And so setting those expectations up front. And if these if you're these potential sellers are not understanding the market and not properly motivated, you need to really ask yourself if it's the right thing to list, have have them list your house. Because the worst thing is a house that doesn't sell if you're in the if you're a real estate agent, right? For sale sign that comes down and it never said sold and it never went under contract. So I think having those conversations, being really um clear with people, and then having a plan in your business plan for what are you going to do for sellers that just want to be list, right? They don't, they're not going to play in this market because they had unrealistic expectations. So I think that's a little different than what we've been dealing with for the last, you know, 12 to 18 months. So that that that's sort of my thought as we leave here today.

SPEAKER_05 1:00:54

Awesome. Awesome. I so I'm going to get this number wrong, but I just read a number. I'm going to ask everyone to actually go put it into chat, and that is the percentage of homes that were taken off the market as the total inventory. I think last month was at its highest level. So again, I'll get the number wrong, but the concept is in total support of what Phyllis just said. So I'm going to encourage you, go get empirical data, add that data into your consultation so that you can share with people what happens if A, then B. If I price it too high, here are the things. I know KCM just gave a great graph of what transpires, what happens to your price per price change. So again, don't go in there with an opinion that is your opinion. Go in there with facts and data that can help support what you what you believe and what you know, but have a third party uh add to your to your value add. So Phyllis, thank you. Mike Rogan, send us off.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:53

Yeah, I mean, gosh, if you're if you're an agent sitting here watching this today and you can't equip yourself better than you did the year past, I don't know what's going on because we've had some great info here. You've had some just absolute experts that uh, you know, I'm just blown away that I can even sit on the panel with them. But just a couple like little wrap-it-up predictions, though. Really, I'm going in pretty cautiously optimistic for this coming year. But um the things I really like about it is I almost feel like we're in a more predictable environment than we've been in a few years. You know, if you look at where we were going into last year and the year before, everything was so volatile that you really could have gone just any direction with things. But right now we can lock it in and we can get pretty close. Like we're down to a couple percentage points on everything that we're talking about. So take that and know that we can go into it with confidence this year, where maybe in the last few years we weren't sure where it was going. Few things that I think will be starting to back off. I don't think you're gonna have as many multiple offers in 2026. I think that's a pretty easy prediction, you know, that we're still gonna have them. They're never gonna go away. But I do think that's gonna back off a little bit and we're gonna be able to be a little bit more realistic on offers and not have to have the pressure on that buyer side to be overly competitive and offer above asking price. And then the last thing, we've kind of hit it on a few. We can almost guarantee that inventory is gonna reload this year. It's coming back. And as that inventory starts to come back if it hasn't already, and we heard in some markets it's already happened, that's a good thing for us. Phyllis said it. You know, that balanced market is a good place to be. I don't know how many times we've heard that now at sales meetings and offices where agents go, oh my gosh, we can't get this house to sell. And you ask, how long has it been on the market? And they say 13 days, 12 days. We go, it's okay. It's okay. You know, we're getting back to that balanced market where it's going to take a little bit longer to sell. We need the experts that we have with our company to use with the skills and the tools that they have, the training that they've been through to really list properties in a professional way that maybe we didn't have to do before. So those are a couple maybe just easy predictions for this coming year. But uh been great being on the panel. Thanks, Gary.

SPEAKER_05 1:04:03

Awesome. Great job. We appreciate you being here.

unknown 1:04:05

Mr.

SPEAKER_05 1:04:05

McGaldrick, what do you got there?

SPEAKER_04 1:04:07

So, Gary, I'm gonna close with a little story um well and that involves some math that you know I love. Um, so talk about Mr. and Mrs. first-time homebuyer. They wanted to buy a house in 2022. They were all fired up. They loved their two and three quarter percent rate that they were gonna get, and it didn't happen, right? They didn't get the house, whatever happened. So they postponed things and they've been kind of frustrated and sitting on the sidelines. So that couple, uh, you know, if they're uh Mr. and Mrs. first-time homebuyer make$75,000 each, they make$150,000, and in 2022, they would have needed a$500,000 mortgage. If you fast forward, um, the average home buyer, first-time homebuyer, has gotten a 4.5% raise each of the last three years since 2022. So that 150 is now a little over 170. Um, and if you look and they tried to buy last year, they would have a rate or the year before, 23 or 24, they would have a rate over seven. Now they got a rate around six. So about a one percent better. So what they're looking at today is their$500,000 mortgage that they would have needed in 2022 is now$580,000, but it's at a 1% lower rate. So the mortgage payment is probably$10 to$15 higher than it was back then, uh back last year, the year before. Um, but they make$1,750 more a month. So costing them$15, making$1,750. And Phyllis talked about the affordability. I think that's the story of affordability and why we should all keep re-engaging because those folks have a different situation today than they had last year or the year before.

SPEAKER_05 1:05:43

Awesome. Great takeaway. Thank you, Mark.

SPEAKER_03 1:05:45

Neil Hanks. Yeah, thank Gary, thanks for inviting me. I always enjoy this uh this session. It's a it's a lot of fun to think about uh what's next and what the future is. So, you know, our homework was to give a macro view, and I think we all prepared and did just that. But here's what I would uh would submit to all of us. There's no better place to live in the country than the Carolinas in Virginia. I expect we'll outperform all of these national numbers uh for those reasons, the quality of life here. Um the Carolinas in Virginia will outperform uh the percentages that we've talked about on the national market. I particularly think that that my teammates and I here in the mountain region have a great opportunity as we continue to get further away from Hurricane Helene and uh those impacts. So, you know, we gave you some some percentages and some numbers today, but I fully expect that Howard Hannah Beverly Hanks and Howard Hannah Allen Tate is gonna do much better than uh than what we just talked about. And lastly, I would say, you know, Ninja teaches us that what we focus on expands. So if we believe that uh that we're gonna have a fantastic year in 2026 and we put forth the effort to do just that, I'm confident that uh as we sit here next year, uh we will out have outperformed everything that we just talked about today.

SPEAKER_05 1:07:09

Well, pretty hard to follow those four closing remarks. So I'm gonna just simply say thank you to everyone who joined us live today. Uh I'm gonna encourage many times over the next couple of weeks that for those of you who were not on today's Real Talk Live, that you listen to it or you watch it. Uh, again, as Mike Rogan said, a lot of really great information. And this is one of those real talks where you probably want to sit down with a pad and paper and make sure that you add to your arsenal of conversational things that you can have with buyers and sellers. Uh, and then last and certainly not least, I want to say thank you to Mike, Neil, Mark, and Phyllis. Uh I joked in the beginning about CNBC Squawk Box, but quite frankly, uh I uh I watch it frequently, and uh very few, if any, uh bring more passion and knowledge and commitment to our industry than the four that you just got the opportunity to share an hour of your afternoon. So I want to say thank you to these guys. Uh, you know, uh we have uh without question the finest leadership team in America, uh in uh Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. Just had to make sure, Neil, that I would have it would have been all over my text thread. And uh I'll I'll leave you with this. Uh as Neil said, we are blessed to do what we do with. We're blessed to do it with who we do it with. And uh we are very excited about 2026. Uh we are going to grow as an organization. We're excited about the opportunity to take advantage of uh, I believe what we believe as a team is maybe once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for our company to grow and expand and and uh you know just really take market share and really uh uh continue to establish our dominance in each market that we operate in. So we went a little long today, but uh I'm pretty impressed that uh the audience did not uh get off at uh two o'clock. So we appreciate it. And to the two o'clock meeting that uh uh most of us are gonna be on. Uh we're obviously late, uh, but we will be there. Have a great holiday. I wish you a happy new year. We won't see you on Real Talk until 2026. We appreciate all of you. Take care. Thank you.