#291 What Alberta’s Separation Vote Really Means

We talk with Alberta Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi about why the proposed referendum is effectively a vote to start leaving Canada, even if it’s framed as “process.” We break down the legal roadblocks, the economic risk, and what a stronger Alberta inside Canada could look like if leaders focus on getting results instead of feeding anger. 

• Why a “process” vote still triggers an Alberta separation path 
• How the Supreme Court guidance and the Clarity Act shape any referendum 
• Why referendum uncertainty can drive away investment and stall major projects 
• The Brexit comparison and what a decade of fallout can look like 
• How political incentives can put national unity at risk 
• Alternatives to separatism for people frustrated with Ottawa 
• A practical vision for pipelines, power grid rebuilding, and economic diversification 
• Why the social and family stress of separation politics matters 


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Transcript

Confusion After Premier’s Address

SPEAKER_01 0:14

You're tune in to a universal radio network. We know Albertans are confused. There's a lot of sentiment. There's a lot of questions. The last 24 hours have been very heavy for Albertans. To talk about this further, joining me is the Leader of the Opposition of Alberta, Mr. Naheed Nancy. Hello, Mr. Nancy. How are you?

SPEAKER_00 0:31

I am good, Sapriet. Thank you so much for having me on. And thank you for characterizing it in that way. Because look, there is a lot of politics to talk about. There's a lot of discussion around how the incompetence and the political malpractice of Danielle Smith has thrown us into this. But what you're saying is what I think is the most important right now to really help Albertans understand what's going on, how we should be feeling about it, and most important, what can we do about it?

Why The Vote Signals Separation

SPEAKER_01 0:59

Absolutely. Now, Mr. Nancy, I actually want to begin because yesterday there was a lot of questions after Daniel Smith addressed the province. And I know one of the things that she stated is that this really isn't a vote to leave Canada. It's a vote on whether Albertans should pursue their process towards a binding referendum. Let's talk about this a little bit because I know this has raised a lot of questions. In your opinion, what exactly does this mean? And also, are critics overstating what she announced?

SPEAKER_00 1:26

No, this really is a vote to leave Canada. Um, that's what we must understand. This is basically the Brexit vote. All she's suggesting is that if people vote yes, they'll get a second chance to vote, uh, which they didn't get in Brexit uh after the deal is written. But it will, if the vote is to start the process to leave Canada, that is a vote to leave Canada. And that means hundreds of millions or billions of dollars spent, it means huge investment lost, it means no one will invest a penny in Alberta until it's all sorted out. So this is a big problem. And you might be asking yourselves, why is she doing it like this? If she really wanted a referendum, why wouldn't she just ask us if we wanted to leave Canada? So I will tell you this. The premier is pretending that she's being forced into this referendum. She always says 700,000 people asked me for this. That's just not true. 400,000 people signed a petition saying don't have a referendum. And of the 300,000 who signed the pro-separatist referendum, frankly, we don't know how many of them are real people. None of those signatures have been verified. Danielle Smith stopped that process with her announcement. And we know that they had stolen the data of uh three million Albertans, so we don't know if those signatures are forged or what happened there. But the real issue here is that the premier has been driving this bus the whole time. She only became the premier because the separatists helped her win the leadership. And we always knew there was a deal there. They didn't do that for free. We never knew what the deal was. And now we know what the deal was, and the deal was she had to give them a referendum and it had to be this year. So now what happens? So now we have to spend the next five months doing something none of us wanted to do. We just wanted to get a summer break. Or if you're nerdy like me, we wanted to talk politics, we wanted to talk about public health care and education and the cost of living and jobs. And now we're going to spend the next five months fighting for Canada. And so even I've gone through a gamut of emotions in the last few hours. I've been angry, I've been upset, I've been grumpy that that takes away all my plans for the next five months. I've been very worried, frankly, because we have to raise a ton of money to run a pro-Canada campaign. We don't have government money to do that. And we know the premier is going to pretend, but she's not going to lift a finger to actually help the pro-Canada side win. So all of that, though, right now has been sort of superseded by the feeling that we've been given an opportunity. It's our duty, but it's also our honor to fight for Canada. So while this is the fight of our lives, it's a fight I'm willing to take up. So we never wanted this. But now that we have it, it's our chance to speak up proudly and loudly for the promise of this great country.

Supreme Court Rules And Clarity Act

SPEAKER_01 4:19

And you know, there's a lot of questions because obviously yesterday during the address, she also addressed and mentioned the Supreme Court, which is bringing a lot of questions of like political and legalities. Where do Albertans fall? So even if Albertans voted yes, the Supreme Court has made very clear that the province can't unilaterally separate. So what exactly will this referendum actually accomplish?

SPEAKER_00 4:44

So a little bit of a tiny history lesson. So in 1995, there was a referendum in Quebec, which narrowly failed. But a lot of people were asking the question what it what would have happened if it had passed? So the Supreme Court gave some guidelines and the federal government passed something called the Clarity Act, which basically says if any province wants to have a referendum, there's a whole series of criteria you have to go through. The federal government has to approve the question as well, and a whole series of protracted negotiations have to happen. There has to be a clear question with a clear majority. What Danielle Smith wanted to do with the separatist referendum didn't meet any of those criteria. And she was warned about this 18 months ago. In fact, in December of last year, they argued in front of the Alberta court, uh, and the arguments weren't going very well. It was clear the judge was going to rule against them. So they changed the law overnight to give themselves the freedom to go forward with this question. The judge was smarter than them, though, because in the 24 hours it took to get the law in place, he issued his decision saying this was unconstitutional and it was incorrect. They went ahead anyway. And he warned them, and we warned them at that time, that anything they do is still going to be illegal. So about 10 days ago, a judge in Alberta ruled that actually wasn't even 10 days ago, it was last week. Boy, time is flying. A judge in Alberta ruled that nope, this is also illegal. So Danielle Smith was always planning this week on announcing the referendum. That video that she put out was pre-recorded, who knows how long ago. But now she couldn't. And so they quickly had to come up with a question that was not a referendum question, so that they could pass that legal test. Um, now we'll see. I'm sure many people will sue them now and we'll see what the courts have to say. But let's say their lawyers are smart and they gave them a good question. It's also a question that plunges us into despair. Because if the pro-Canada side wins, the separatists will say, Well, you didn't give us a clear question. And if the anti-Canada side wins, that starts a process that will go on for a decade or more of trying to negotiate independence before another referendum. And we know what happened in Britain after Brexit, 10 years of economic decline. And that's what we have now signed up for. So how do we get out of it? The only way out of it is for the yes side. I don't, I can't even say the yes or no side because it's a multiple choice question. So we'll say the pro-Canada side. The only way to get out of this is for the pro-Canada side to win with such a giant majority that the premier and her colleagues on the separatist side will be uh will be embarrassed and will go skulk away for a little while. But

Why A Referendum Is Dangerous

SPEAKER_00 7:35

here's the problem, Safrith. Today or yesterday, the Premier did what we always knew she was gonna do. She claimed that she is pro-Canada and she has been pro-Canada this whole time. Come on. You can't be a Canadian of convenience. If she was really pro-Canada, she wouldn't have allowed these referenda to go forward. She wouldn't have caused these referenda to go forward. So she's trying to play both sides. And so when the pro-Canada side wins, inshallah, as we Muslims say, she will take credit and say, this is what I wanted the whole time. But Albertans aren't idiots. She treats us like idiots, but we're not idiots. We know exactly what her game is. We know where she's lying, we know where she's gaslighting, and we won't stand for that. But nonetheless, we still have to win this referendum.

SPEAKER_01 8:21

Absolutely. Now, I know, as you mentioned, Premier Daniel Smith personally says she supports staying in Canada. Uh, you've sort of just highlighted this, but I do want to touch this on like why is this so dangerous, the way she has stated this? Why should Albertans be worried about this?

SPEAKER_00 8:37

If she was really pro-Canada, she would have told the separatists who are a tiny portion of Albertans today, the hardcore separatists. And by the way, that hasn't grown at all. So she's given them all this oxygen, all this microphone, you know, they're dominating social media. But the percentage of people who say they'll vote for separation hasn't gone up. In fact, it's gone down since its peak. So normally, what another premier and every other premier of Alberta ever has done is say, listen, I'm here to fight for Alberta and fight for Canada. And if you don't like that, form your own political party and defeat me in the next election. And in fact, the separatists did run in the three by-elections. And, you know, your studio is in the heart of my riding, Edmonton Strathcona, so I won't embarrass the Separatists by saying how few votes they got in Edmonton Strathcona. But even in the heart of rural Alberta and the most separatist riding in the province, we beat them. They barely cracked double digits. And they know they can't win at the ballot box, they can't win in an election. And the premier really should have said, if you can't win in an election, then I'm not spending my time listening to you. I'm spending my time listening to the 80% of Albertans who want to stay in Canada and spending my time getting them better health care, better education, reducing their cost of living. Instead, she just wants people to be angry. She wants me to be angry at Ottawa, she wants me to be angry at immigrants, and that's her governance strategy. And I just don't buy that philosophy.

Fixing Alberta Ottawa Friction

SPEAKER_01 10:03

Now, for that population of Alberta that genuinely feels that Ottawa doesn't listen to the province, where there's energy, equalization, federal regulation, what is the answer for them if it's not separatism?

SPEAKER_00 10:15

The answer is do a better job as the government of Alberta. Because I'll remind you, the premier always says, we lost 10 years, and she always blames Justin Trudeau and Jugmeets saying, Justin Trudeau's been gone for a while now, and she still blames him for it. But what she never mentions is that in those 10 years we got a pipeline built. Conservatives have not built a single mile of pipeline to Tidewater in 50, 60, 70 years. We got one built under the Alberta New Democrats. And by the way, that's the only reason we don't have even a bigger budget deficit right now because that one pipeline. So they spent seven years fighting with Ottawa, and now she's suddenly saying, I believe in Ottawa and I can solve all the problems. If they had spent the last seven years getting more pipelines built instead of fighting with Ottawa all the time, we'd be in a very different place today. But also that that hardcore separatist, the 5-7% of Alberta, this isn't going to satisfy them. They've already said they don't like the memorandum of agreement or understanding with the federal government. They've already said they couldn't care less if Alberta appoints federal judges or we take a more anti-immigrant stance. They're still separatists. So at some point, in a family, you have disagreements, and certainly Alberta has very legitimate concerns with Ottawa, but I would say you fix them instead of leaving the family. And that's really where we're at now, is that Premier Smith has done such a bad job of fixing the problems. She's given heir to the people who want to leave the family.

Political Survival And The Brexit Warning

SPEAKER_01 11:43

Now, Mr. Nancy, do you believe that Premier Daniel Smith is putting national unity at risk for political survival at this point?

SPEAKER_00 11:50

1,000%. It's so very clear that she owed the separatists her job. It's very clear that the UCP has become a separatist party. We know this to be true. 50% plus of UCP voters are separatists. They're part the guy who runs the separatist movement is a UCP local party president in northern Alberta. So we know this is true. And the Premier is so focused on her political future that she doesn't realize the extraordinary danger she's put us in. So those who followed Brexit or who many of our listeners would have been living in Britain at the time, this is exactly what Prime Minister David Cameron did. He said, The Separatists are never going to win, but I'm worried that they're going to split my vote, and Nigel Farage will uh defeat me. By the way, now Nigel Farage looks like he's going to defeat the Labor government. Same guy. But he was very open about it. And so has the Premier been. Premier Smith on her radio show last year said, if I don't do this, my party will split. And the problem here is exactly the problem with Brexit, which is if you do this for your political gain, but then you lose your country, maybe that was on purpose, maybe that was by accident. It's super dangerous. And Britain now has had 10 years of economic decline since Brexit. Everyone's paying more taxes, the health services amass, and everything. And I'm really worried that Danielle Smith, by not focusing on doing her job, going to work and doing her job every day, is leading us to this chaos because ultimately, look, there are many problems with a referendum. Number one is it's unpredictable. So, like Brexit, it could pass, which would be a disaster. Number two is economically it gonna it's gonna get people to not want to invest in Alberta. Who's gonna spend tens of billions of dollars on a pipeline if they don't know what country that pipeline will be in? The third, and probably for our South Asian listeners, this is what you'll really get, is it causes problems in the family. And you know how we hate causing problems in the family. But quite seriously, it pits neighbor against neighbor, friend against friend. The emotional turmoil of this is so much. Like your very first question said people are angry and confused and sad and upset. Why does government do that to people? Shouldn't we be uplifting people? And this whole idea of separatism is just leading to that kind of emotional toll as well as the enormous financial cost. And let's not forget, having this referendum might cost $100 million of taxpayers' money, which I'd much rather have in emergency rooms.

SPEAKER_01 14:27

Absolutely. I think the economical impacts that it could potentially create are very evident from Brexit. And there's a reason why news organizations such as BBC is continuously comparing this with Brexit. So I think that's a very interesting way for Albertans to also sort of see what the potential impacts could be of this as well. Lastly,

Vision For A Stronger Alberta

SPEAKER_01 14:46

Mr. Nancy, I know it's a really busy day for you. The last thing I wanted to leave with our listeners is five years from now, what does a stronger Alberta inside Canada look like to you?

SPEAKER_00 14:57

Well, hopefully, inshallah, as we Muslims say, we will have a better government. We'll have a new Democrat government five years from now, hopefully one year from now. And what that means is a government that stands up for Alberta's interests, but knows how to get stuff done. Instead of fighting, we win. So at that point, we have energy infrastructure projects underway. And I encourage people to look at our energy plan, which you can find at albertanddp.ca. Um, but that means not just oil pipelines to the West Coast, but oil pipelines in different directions. It means investing in natural gas, it means investing in renewables and rebuilding our electricity grid. But it also means that we've undertaken an economic development strategy that brings in the smartest people and investment from around the world to build great jobs here. So I'll give you one quick example that might resonate with your listeners. We don't do a great job in building our agriculture and agri-food business here. And it's great, it's a wonderful business. There are great producers, great exporters, but we could be doing so much more. There's 7 billion mouths to feed in the world. And we have so many people who've come here from South Asia, from Punjab in particular, who know a lot about agriculture. And how are we going to use that to build that business and to build those services? But ultimately, Sapri, I think that I would love it if we had an Alberta government where you didn't have to wake up every morning and turn on universal radio with dread, going, what did she do now? I would love it if we had a boring Alberta government with a boring premier like me, where you would wake up and go, everything's under control, everything's in good hands, healthcare is there, education is there, and we're building a future for our kids.

SPEAKER_01 16:36

Absolutely. I appreciate your time, Mr. Nenchie. This was very informational.

How To Reach The Show

SPEAKER_01 16:40

And everyone who's tuned in, any questions, you can text us 780 887 0979. Thank you.

SPEAKER_00 16:46

Always a pleasure, Sapreet. Thank you.

SPEAKER_01 16:47

Thank you. Take care of