#77 Prediction as Protection: When Disappointment Clouds the Bright Spots

What if your brain isn't expecting the worst because you're pessimistic? What if it's trying to protect you?

Have you ever noticed how easy it is to say, "Of course..." when something frustrating happens, but "Can you believe it?" when something wonderful does?

 In this episode, Trish explores a powerful concept in neuroscience that she has come to think of as Prediction as Protection. Our brains are constantly using past experiences to predict what might happen next. Those predictions are designed to keep us safe, but they also influence what we notice, how we interpret the people we love, and even what we believe is possible for ourselves. 

When our brains learn to expect disappointment, the bright spots don't disappear. They simply become harder to notice. Moments of kindness, connection, growth, and hope don't disappear, but they can become much harder to see when our brains have learned to keep scanning the horizon for storms.

Through personal stories, reflections on her relationship with Ben, and practical neuroscience, Trish explores how these protective predictions shape our relationships, our healing, and our everyday lives. More importantly, she shares why those predictions are not permanent.

As we intentionally notice new evidence, our brains can begin updating what they expect. Little by little, we can repave the familiar roads we've traveled for years and create space for greater safety, connection, hope, and possibility.

In this episode, you'll learn:

• Why our brains naturally develop protective predictions.
• How past experiences shape what we notice in everyday life.
• Why disappointment often feels expected while joyful moments feel surprising.
• How Prediction as Protection influences our relationships and the way we see the people we love.
• Why compassion begins with understanding what our brains are trying to do.
• How noticing new experiences helps our brains revise old predictions.
• Why healing isn't about ignoring life's storms, but learning to recognize that the bright spots have been there all along.

Sometimes the most important changes don't come from changing the world around us.

Sometimes they begin by gently changing what our brains have learned to expect.

If you and your partner are ready to co-create the roadmap to the relationship of your dreams, join us for the next in-person "Getting the Love You Want" Weekend Couples Retreat! 

For support in how to have deeper connections and better communication in the relationships that matter most in your life, follow the host, Trish Sanders on Instagram , Bluesky or LinkedIn.

Transcript

Two Phrases That Reveal A Pattern

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Hello, and welcome to the When Depression is in your bed podcast. Sometimes the biggest insights don't come from major life events. Sometimes they come from noticing something that you've said a hundred times before, but for the first time you hear it a little differently. And that's exactly what happened to me recently. I noticed two little phrases that I hear all the time and even say myself. And the more I thought about them, the more I realize that they reveal something surprisingly important about the way our brains try to protect us. And that's what I want to share with you today. I'm your host, Trish Sanders, and I am delighted that you are here. Let's get started. For quite some time, I've been really taken by these two little phrases that I frequently hear people say. One is, of course, and the other is, can you believe it? If you're standing in the slowest checkout line in the grocery store, of course. If you spill coffee on your shirt right before an important meeting, uh, of course. Or if someone cuts you off in traffic, uh, of course. I started noticing how life's little frustrations so frequently come hand in hand with this exclamation of acceptance, like we knew that this was going to happen. But on the flip side, when something good happens to us, like we get a compliment from someone that we admire, or we have a wonderful conversation with someone that we didn't expect we could have that kind of conversation with, or in moments in a relationship when things go easier than you thought they would, or even with things that are really big, like for instance winning the lottery. We don't say, of course, those kinds of things. Instead, we say, can you believe it? Like we're surprised that something good actually happened to us. And I've been thinking about those two phrases for a very long time. As a matter of fact, they are jotted down in some of my earliest podcast episode notes, and I've been holding on to them for quite some time because I've been thinking about what they really mean and what I really wanted to say about them. And recently, I realized that I don't think that they're just expressions. The way I see it, these common phrases actually reveal something very important about the way our brain works. For a long time, I was thinking about these phrases just in terms of language. And that's actually what I had jotted down in my earliest notes about this idea. Originally, I started wondering what could happen if we just found a way to switch how we used these phrases. So, for example, when something difficult happened or frustrating, we instead said, oh, can you believe it? Like we were actually surprised that frustrating things happen in life. And when something really good happened, we were like, oh, of course this great thing happened to us. But something about that didn't quite land right in my nervous system because it didn't seem totally believable. And it was more in line with how sometimes the use of positive affirmations alone sometimes isn't exactly what our system needs to be able to make the shifts that we're longing to make. So I kept wondering. And I've come to realize that this isn't just about changing our words, it's about understanding why our brains seem to choose these words

Prediction As Protection Explained

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in the first place. Our brains are constantly using past experiences to predict what will happen next. I've been thinking about this concept as prediction as protection. Our brains make predictions because they're trying to protect us. And that makes perfect sense. That's how survival works. If we experience something dangerous in our past, our brain and our nervous system wants us to be prepared if something similar happens again in the future, which means our brains can be very good at expecting danger, expecting disappointment, expecting frustration. So when another frustrating thing happens, of course, our brain says, I knew something like this was coming. But our brains don't store and reflect positive experiences in exactly the same way. Positive or good feeling experiences don't usually demand our attention in the same way that dangerous experiences or potentially dangerous experiences do. So we notice them less, we prepare for them less, and we remember them less. Which means when they happen, they can feel like a surprise. Can you believe that that great thing just happened to me? It's almost like for some of us, our brain almost forgets that good things actually can still happen in our life. And here's the fascinating thing. There are probably dozens and dozens of good feeling things that happen all around us in our lives every day. Small moments, moments of kindness, funny moments, beautiful moments, connecting moments, moments when someone lends a hand to someone in need, and moments when our partner reaches out to us for connection. But if our brain isn't expecting those moments, we often miss them. Not because they aren't there, but because our prediction wasn't looking for them. And prediction as protection doesn't only shape the way that we experience the world around us, it also shapes how we

Why Good Moments Feel Surprising

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experience the people that we love. I've noticed this with Ben many times over the years. If I say something that fits Ben's old prediction of me, he often responds with his version of an of course. Of course Trisha's reacting that way. Of course she's criticizing me. Of course she thinks I should have handled it this way. And if I'm honest, I have my own version of of course when Ben does something that I feel frustrated by. My brain also says, of course, of course that's how Ben handled it. Of course he's reacting that way. Of course that's what he would say. Those are not just thought, those are predictions. And those predictions shape our experience. They influence what we notice and how we interpret others' behavior, along with how we respond. And the more I've thought about this, the more compassionate that I become towards Ben and myself. When Ben reacts to something I say or I react to something that he does, I don't think that our brains are trying to make the relationship harder or keep us stuck in old patterns. I now think that they're using prediction as protection. They're using old experiences to help prepare us for what they think might happen next. Instead of thinking, of course, Ben's judging me again, I now try to remind myself that Ben's brain is just trying to protect him. And instead of believing, oh, of course, I'm just frustrated with Ben again, this is just how our relationship goes, I can begin to recognize that my brain may be making a protective prediction as well. And having this kind of compassion and understanding can help create a little bit of space so that we can actually look at what's happening and respond in a different way and realize that maybe the danger that we think is happening in this moment isn't completely accurate, or maybe in some way it's just different than how it's happened in the past. And that is how change can begin to occur with noticing that now is actually different from then. Now, interestingly, and perhaps not surprisingly, when it comes to positive experiences, Ben and I often have a different experience. I've actually talked about this on the podcast before, but when I act in a way that feels very authentic to me when I'm being positive or happy or in a good mood, sometimes Ben will comment and say that I'm in quote unquote rare form, as if this isn't my norm. And I experience myself very differently than Ben's perception of me. And again, I have talked about this on episodes in the past and part of what I think is going on in this situation. But when I start to think about it through this lens, I notice something. When Ben and I are doing well, it often feels surprising to him and even sometimes to me too. Like, wow, oh my gosh, can you believe it? Things are going well between the two of us because our norm has for so long been something that has a lot more tension and a lot more ongoing conflict. And so both of us are prepared for that to happen more frequently. And to tell you the truth, when Ben first started saying things like I was in rare form, I almost took it as an insult because I was like, what do you mean? Do you see me as somebody who's never in a good mood? But I have since come to realize that what's happening is that Ben is in the

How Predictions Shape Relationships

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process of updating his old predictions about me. And it doesn't stop there. The very same thing can happen inside of us as well. The way I see it, this same concept shows up in individual healing all over the place. I see it in depression, I see it in anxiety, and I even see it when people talk about the idea of manifesting. Whether or not you use that actual word, I think that there's something really important happening. Our brains don't just make predictions about grocery store lines or traffic or our partners. They also make predictions about us. Based on our history, our brains will make predictions about whether we're capable or not, whether or not we'll be able to connect with others, whether relationships are safe places for us, or whether we're capable of being in a relationship at all, whether or not change is possible. And again, those predictions influence what we notice. And what we notice becomes evidence. And that evidence strengthens our future predictions. And the cycle continues. For example, I've had a lot of experience in my life that has trained my brain to think that when I'm in social situations, I either talk way too much or I'm so scared that I'll be perceived in some negative way that I tend not to talk at all. Because I have a prediction about relationships and friendships that I'm not very good at making new friends. So time after time, when I found myself in groups of people, and I would find one of these two predictions happening. Either I'd be way too talkative or I would be totally shut down. And time and time again, I felt like I wasn't making genuine connections with people, even though I was so desperately longing for just that. And every time I had that experience, my brain said, of course, that's how social situations go for you. You don't make genuine connections. You either talk too much or you're totally shut down. And the more I had those kinds of experiences, the more my brain continued to predict that this is just how social situations were going to go for me. It becomes a self-feeding cycle. Depression can become a self-feeding cycle, so can anxiety, and so can relationship problems. But you know the exciting part? Other things can become self-feeding cycles too, like gratitude or hope or joy. Not because we're pretending that bad things don't happen. And I want to be very clear about that. There's a very good reason why our brain is wired for survival and why it uses predictions as protection. This is not about trying to teach our brains to stop noticing danger and focus only on the good, but we can intentionally strengthen our brain's ability to notice safety, to notice kindness, to notice growth, to notice evidence that challenges our old predictions. And every time we notice evidence that doesn't fit our old prediction, it's an opportunity to help our brain revise what it expects will happen. Little by little, we can repave the familiar roads that our brain has traveled for years until a new road becomes familiar instead. For me, that's what healing has looked like. Not pretending that everything is good or forcing myself into positive thinking all the time. And it's certainly not ignoring that real pain and suffering happens. But it is gradually changing and expanding what our brain expects. So instead of, of course, Ben disappointed me again, I can start to notice, oh, of course, Ben showed up for me again. He's really there when I need him. And instead of, oh, of course, I failed again, I'm never going to figure this out. I can shift into, of course, I'm going to keep going until I get this. I can always ask for help if I need it. Not because life is perfect or because it ever will be, but because our brains have the chance to collect enough new evidence that they're able to begin predicting something new, something that includes hope or joy or safety or connection. And these ideas are central to what I've been creating over the last couple of years. And when I've been talking to you and telling you that I've been creating my coaching program, it's honestly become so much more than that. It's really become the culmination of everything that I've learned personally and professionally about how people can actually change their relationships, themselves, their nervous systems, and their lives. And how we can consciously choose to work with our brains and our systems instead of working against them. And this has been one of the most powerful things that I've been thinking about recently. But prediction as protection shapes the way we experience the world. And it shapes the way we experience the people that we love. And it even shapes the way we experience ourselves. But predictions aren't permanent. Our brains, thankfully, are constantly learning. Every new experience becomes another chance that we can begin repaving the road. Healing won't override our brain's survival tool of prediction. But it can teach us that good things belong in our predictions as well. But it can teach our brain that beautiful, nourishing, positive, joyful things belong in our predictions too. And maybe in time we can stop being surprised every time something good happens. And maybe, of course, can start to refer to the things in life that we're intentionally building and creating. Like, of course, I'm feeling better. I've been taking really good care of myself. So I expect to feel good. And again, this isn't about feeling

Updating Old Beliefs In Depression

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good all the time or stopping our brains from noticing the hard and challenging things that are happening in the world. This is about helping our brains notice that pain and suffering don't have to be the whole story anymore. And I think there's something incredibly hopeful about that. And I hope that there's something in today's conversation that feels hopeful for you too. As our time comes to a close, I ask you to keep listening for just a few more moments because I want to thank you for showing up today. And I want to leave you with an invitation as you hit stop and move back out into the world on your own unique wellness journey. In order to move from where you are today to the place where you want to be, the path may seem long or unclear or unknown. And I want you to know that if that seems scary or daunting or downright terrifying or anything else, that is totally okay. Know that you do not have to create the whole way all at once. We don't travel a whole journey in one stride. And that is why my invitation to you today is to take a step, just one. Any type, any size, in any direction. It can be an external step that can be observed or measured, or it could be a step you visualize taking in your mind. It can be a step towards action or towards rest or connection or self-care or whatever step makes sense to you. I invite you to take a step today because getting to a place that feels better, more joyful, more connected than the place where you are today is possible for everyone, including you, and even when depression is in your bed. If today's episode resonated with you, please subscribe so you can be notified when each weekly episode gets released. I encourage you to leave a review and reach out to me on social media at trish.sanders.lcsw. Your feedback will help guide future episodes, and I love hearing from

A Small Step Toward Change

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you. Also, please share this podcast with anyone who you think may be interested or who may get something from what I have shared. Until the next time we connect, take care of yourself and take a step.