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Spiritual Bookshelf Episode 41 : How to Build Financial Wisdom – Part 8

飛利浦 Phillip

Hey everyone, and welcome back! Hope you've had a great week.

Today, we're diving back into Charlie Munger's amazing book, *Poor Charlie's Almanack*. We're continuing our discussion on the nine major flaws he identified in the field of economics. Munger argued that these aren't just minor theoretical issues; they're huge blind spots that arise because economics relies too heavily on mathematical models, often ignores real-world complexity, and fails to integrate knowledge from other fields.

Let’s pick up on two more of these key flaws.

 Flaw #4: The Failure to Consider Complex, Cross-Disciplinary Interactions

Economic models often make a huge oversimplification: they assume variables are independent and don't affect each other in complicated ways. Munger pointed out that this is a dangerous assumption. The real world isn't a simple machine with separate gears; it's a complex, interconnected system, much like an ecosystem.

To illustrate this, he brought up the "Butterfly Effect" from chaos theory. This concept, first proposed by meteorologist Edward Lorenz, showed that a tiny change in a system's initial conditions could lead to massive, unpredictable differences in its long-term outcome. As Lorenz famously put it, "A butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil could set off a tornado in Texas." This is a perfect metaphor for how a small change in monetary policy, for example, could trigger a huge, unexpected economic consequence.

So, how can we apply this lesson from the Butterfly Effect to our own lives and finances?

First, start small to create big long-term impact.

Second, pay attention to your initial conditions.

Third, understand and amplify positive chain reactions.

Finally, be on the lookout for negative Butterfly Effects

Flaw #5: The Neglect of Historical Lessons

Munger criticized economists for repeatedly failing to learn from history. They often get caught up in new models and theories, only to ignore the clear lessons from past events like the Great Depression of 1929 or Japan's asset bubble in the 1990s. These events provided powerful evidence about the dangers of excessive leverage and speculation, yet the lessons are often forgotten.

Warren Buffett is a perfect example of a successful person who deeply understands the value of history. He studied the Great Depression and the market downturns of the 1970s. This taught him that excessive leverage and speculation inevitably lead to crashes, so he built his entire investment philosophy around low leverage and focusing on the long-term value of a business.

In our own lives, failure—both our own and that of others—is our most valuable learning tool.

A.       Learn from your own failures.

When you experience a setback, don't just feel bad. Pause and ask yourself: Why did this happen? What did I learn? What will I do differently next time? By analyzing your mistakes, you can turn them into a clear plan for improvement.

B.       Learn from others' failures.

Read biographies, listen to your friends' struggles, and observe the mistakes of others. This is like a shortcut to wisdom. It can help you avoid making the same errors and gives you new perspectives on how to handle challenges. It also builds empathy and reminds you that no one is perfect, which makes you more resilient in your own struggles.

And with that, we’ve come to the end of another episode. I hope you've found some valuable insights today. Remember to find some time to put these ideas into practice.

If you enjoyed the episode, please subscribe and share it with someone you think might also benefit.

I wish you all the best as you continue to learn and practice financial wisdom, so that you can live a happy and abundant life. See you next time!